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Dominant Species Drive Biomass and Diversity Responses to Nutrient Inputs 优势物种驱动生物量和多样性对养分投入的响应
IF 2.3 2区 生物学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-02-17 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.73022
Philip A. Fay, Anita C. Risch, Michael J. Aspinwall, Robert W. Heckman, Albina R. Khasanova, Lara G. Reichmann

Global change is enriching terrestrial ecosystems with multiple nutrients and amplifying interannual variation in precipitation. Grassland productivity may be co-limited by combinations of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K). How these nutrients may interact with each other or with varying precipitation to influence the contributions of dominant species and functional groups to aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and species diversity is rarely considered. We fertilized a mesic grassland for 5 years with all combinations of N, P, and K+ micronutrients in the first year (Kμ) to test which nutrients (1) limited ANPP and functional group biomass, (2) reordered dominant species and impacted plant species diversity, and (3) interacted with annual precipitation to influence these responses. Adding N and P together disproportionately increased ANPP, but adding both N and P or N and Kμ disproportionately increased forb biomass to account for nearly all (90%) of ANPP. Grass biomass was correlated with light availability, not nutrients, and legume biomass decreased with added N, with or without other nutrients. Nutrient combinations (mainly NP and NPKμ) causing the greatest increases in forb biomass and ANPP also resulted in replacement of dominant species by an annual forb and decreased species diversity (Shannon index), evenness, and species richness. Nutrient combinations (P, Kμ, PKμ) not increasing biomass favored dominance by C4 grasses and increased species richness. N effects on ANPP, species diversity, and richness were greater in years with higher annual precipitation. Annual precipitation interacted with all three nutrients to exert sometimes positive and sometimes negative feedback on the abundance of the most dominant species. Dominant species drive nutrient effects on community productivity and species diversity. An expanded definition of nutrient limitation incorporating constituent responses will improve understanding of anthropogenic nutrient inputs on ecosystem productivity and related ecosystem services.

全球变化使陆地生态系统丰富了多种营养物质,并扩大了降水的年际变化。草地生产力可能受到氮(N)、磷(P)和钾(K)的共同限制。这些养分如何相互作用或与降水变化相互作用,从而影响优势物种和功能群对地上净初级生产力(ANPP)和物种多样性的贡献,很少被考虑。本研究对一个中等草原进行了为期5年的施肥处理,在第一年使用N、P和K+微量营养元素(Kμ)进行施肥,以测试哪些营养元素(1)限制了ANPP和功能群生物量,(2)重新排序了优势物种并影响了植物物种多样性,(3)与年降水量相互作用影响了这些响应。N和P同时添加不成比例地增加了ANPP,但N和P或N和km均不成比例地增加了牧草生物量,占ANPP的近90%。禾草生物量与光效相关,而与养分无关;豆科植物生物量随氮添加而减少,无论是否添加其他养分。营养物组合(主要是NP和NPKμ)对牧草生物量和ANPP的增加最大,也导致优势种被一年生牧草取代,物种多样性(Shannon指数)、均匀度和物种丰富度降低。养分组合(P、Kμ、PKμ)不增加生物量,有利于C4草的优势和物种丰富度的增加。N对ANPP、物种多样性和丰富度的影响在年降水量高的年份更大。年降水量与这三种养分相互作用,对多数优势种的丰度产生时而正时而负的反馈。优势种驱动养分对群落生产力和物种多样性的影响。将组成响应纳入营养限制的扩展定义将提高对人为营养投入对生态系统生产力和相关生态系统服务的理解。
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引用次数: 0
Controlled Experiments Reveal Moderate, Nonlinear Relationships Between eDNA Concentration and Fish Biomass in Three Freshwater Species of Monitoring Relevance 对照实验揭示了三种监测相关淡水物种中eDNA浓度与鱼类生物量之间的中度非线性关系
IF 2.3 2区 生物学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-02-17 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.73129
Lorenzo Talarico, Gerardo Petrosino, Anna Rita Rossi, Paolo Franchini, Lorenzo Tancioni

Understanding the relationship between environmental DNA (eDNA) concentration and taxa abundance is essential for the advancement of quantitative biodiversity monitoring. We experimentally manipulated biomass of three freshwater fish species of monitoring interest—the Italian-endemic Squalius lucumonis and the exotic-invasive Pseudorasbora parva and Lepomis gibbosus—under controlled conditions (flow-through 310 and 1330 L tanks). Following eDNA collection (2 L water filtration) and Real-Time PCR quantification, Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) revealed: (i) monotonic non-linear relationships of moderate-to-high magnitude (0.42 < partial-R2 < 0.62), with eDNA concentrations plateauing at intermediate biomasses in smaller-sized taxa; and (ii) a significant effect of experimental replicates (tanks) in two out of three species. These findings suggest that eDNA-based biomass quantification should not assume linearity, and emphasize the critical role of replication to account for inherent uncertainty, likely driven by inter- and intra-individual variations in eDNA shedding rates.

了解环境DNA (eDNA)浓度与分类群丰度之间的关系,对推进生物多样性定量监测具有重要意义。在控制条件下(流量分别为310和1330升),我们对三种有监测意义的淡水鱼——意大利特有的绿角鲨、外来入侵的小伪鱼和长尾鱼——的生物量进行了实验控制。通过收集eDNA (2 L水过滤)和Real-Time PCR定量,广义加性混合模型(GAMMs)显示:(i)中高量级的单调非线性关系(0.42 <;部分r2 <; 0.62),在较小的类群中,中等生物量的eDNA浓度趋于稳定;(ii)实验重复(池)对三分之二的物种有显著影响。这些发现表明,基于eDNA的生物量量化不应该假设线性,并强调复制的关键作用,以解释固有的不确定性,可能是由eDNA脱落率的个体间和个体内差异驱动的。
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引用次数: 0
Satellite-Driven Synthesis of Fish Production Dynamics and Carrying Capacity Mechanisms in a High-Altitude Lake Ecosystem 高海拔湖泊生态系统鱼类生产动态与承载机制的卫星综合研究
IF 2.3 2区 生物学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-02-17 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.72989
Ban Xuan, Qi Hongfang, Shu Peng, Luo Ying, Ling Feng, Xiao Fei, Li Pengchen, Fu Shengyun, Du Hao

Understanding how limited energy constrains fish populations in fragile high-altitude lakes is essential for sustainable fisheries management. This study developed a satellite-based framework that integrated MODIS-derived chlorophyll a data with a vertically generalised production model. This framework was used to map Fish Potential Production (FPP) and establish a novel Fish Carrying Capacity Index (FCCI) for the endemic naked carp (Gymnocypris przewalskii) in Qinghai Lake, China, from 2002 to 2024. Over the 23-year period, lake-wide fish production increased 50-fold (from 2592 to 127,500 t) alongside an upward trend in FPP driven by primary production. Seasonally, FPP per unit area peaked in summer (July–August: 30–50 g/m2) and declined in spring (May–June: 0–30 g/m2). Spatially, the highest values occurred near riverbank and tributary estuaries, whereas central waters remained low. The FCCI revealed significant heterogeneity; the northwestern regions experienced high food demand pressure (FCCI > 0.5), while the southeastern areas were underutilised (FCCI < 0.3). As the lake-wide FCCI never exceeded 0.6, the current level of primary productivity can support further strategic restocking, provided that releases are redirected to the southeast to relieve pressure on the northwest. This study demonstrates how remote sensing can be used to balance fish conservation and production goals in sensitive plateau ecosystems.

了解有限的能量如何限制脆弱的高海拔湖泊中的鱼类种群,对于可持续渔业管理至关重要。该研究开发了一个基于卫星的框架,该框架将modis衍生的叶绿素a数据与垂直广义生产模型相结合。利用该框架绘制了2002 - 2024年青海湖特有裸鱼(gymnocyis przewalskii)的鱼类生产潜力(FPP)图,并建立了新的鱼类承载能力指数(FCCI)。在23年的时间里,全湖鱼类产量增加了50倍(从2592吨增加到127500吨),同时在初级生产的推动下,FPP呈上升趋势。单位面积FPP在夏季最高(7 ~ 8月30 ~ 50 g/m2),春季下降(5 ~ 6月0 ~ 30 g/m2)。从空间上看,河岸及支流入海口附近的土壤水分含量最高,而中部水域的土壤水分含量较低。FCCI显示出显著的异质性;西北地区粮食需求压力较大(FCCI < 0.5),东南地区粮食利用不足(FCCI < 0.3)。由于全湖的FCCI从未超过0.6,目前的初级生产力水平可以支持进一步的战略补充,前提是将放水重新定向到东南部,以缓解西北部的压力。该研究表明,在敏感的高原生态系统中,如何利用遥感来平衡鱼类保护和生产目标。
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引用次数: 0
Performance and Limitations of Out-Of-Distribution Detection for Insect DNA Barcoding 昆虫DNA条形码分布外检测的性能与局限性
IF 2.3 2区 生物学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-02-17 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.73112
Tomochika Fujisawa, Takashi Imai

Successful applications of DNA barcoding rely on the accurate taxonomic identification of sequence fragments. When biological surveys with DNA barcoding target underexplored biological communities, sequence-based identification is often conducted using incomplete databases that do not fully cover the regional species pool. Consequently, specimens to be identified may include species not present in reference databases. Such unknown or “out-of-distribution” samples can cause misidentification if left undetected. A similarity cutoff is commonly used to detect out-of-distribution samples before taxonomic assignment, but its effectiveness has not been carefully studied. In this study, we evaluated the performance of out-of-distribution detection for DNA barcoding with genetic distance and deep learning metrics. Using extensively sampled datasets of multiple insect taxa, we measured the performance of identification and out-of-distribution detection under conditions in which genetic variations in species were sufficiently sampled. Although identification with DNA barcoding is a highly accurate process, even with short noisy fragments, out-of-distribution detection was more susceptible to a reduction in performance due to sequence noise and a lack of diagnosable characters. When fragments shorter than 300 bp were used for out-of-distribution detection, large performance reductions were observed irrespective of detection methods. Our results provide guidelines for designing unknown-proof identification procedures by determining factors affecting out-of-distribution detection performance.

DNA条形码的成功应用依赖于序列片段的准确分类鉴定。当利用DNA条形码对未开发的生物群落进行生物学调查时,基于序列的鉴定通常使用不完整的数据库,不能完全覆盖区域物种库。因此,待鉴定的标本可能包括参考数据库中没有的物种。这种未知或“不在分布范围内”的样品如果不加以检测,可能会导致错误识别。在分类分配之前,相似性截断通常用于检测分布外样本,但其有效性尚未得到仔细研究。在这项研究中,我们用遗传距离和深度学习指标评估了DNA条形码的分布外检测性能。利用广泛采样的多个昆虫类群数据集,在充分采样物种遗传变异的条件下,我们测量了鉴定和分布外检测的性能。虽然DNA条形码鉴定是一个高度准确的过程,即使是短的噪声片段,但由于序列噪声和缺乏可诊断特征,分布外检测更容易降低性能。当使用短于300 bp的片段进行分布外检测时,无论采用何种检测方法,性能都会大幅下降。我们的研究结果通过确定影响分布外检测性能的因素,为设计未知证明识别程序提供了指导。
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引用次数: 0
Male Copulatory Structures in Reproductively Functional Female Live-Bearing Fish Pseudopoecilia fria 生殖功能雌活鱼的雄性交配结构。
IF 2.3 2区 生物学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-02-17 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.73118
Justin Yeager, Leonardo Avila, Callen Inman, Marissa Cartee, Micaela Pozo, Dillan Burbano

The presence of sexual characteristics typical of one sex in the opposite sex is more common than has been previously recognized. When changes in the environment or the genome alter sex-specific regulatory processes, individuals may develop novel reproductive phenotypes. We recently discovered a population of the live-bearing fish Pseudopoecilia fria (Cyprinodontiformes: Poeciliidae) in which females were found to possess gonopodia, reproductive organs normally exclusive to male fish that are used in the transfer of sperm in mating. While we are not yet able to identify the specific mechanisms underlying this phenotype, we tentatively attribute it to female masculinization. We document that this process has occurred in a significant proportion of the females sampled in the population. Geometric morphometric analyses showed that females were potentially divided into two discrete phenotypes, though with considerable intra-group variance. Additionally, all females with gonopodia were gravid, and one individual gave birth to live offspring. Therefore, these alternate female morphs appear reproductively functional. We discuss several potential explanations for this phenomenon, including exposure to masculinizing water-borne pollutants and the remote possibility of a fixed polymorphism. Additionally, we suggest a number of lines of research which could be motivated by this discovery.

一种性别的典型性特征在异性身上的存在比以前认识到的更为普遍。当环境或基因组的变化改变了性别特异性调节过程时,个体可能会发展出新的生殖表型。我们最近发现了一个繁殖鱼群,其中雌性鱼被发现具有性腺,这是雄性鱼特有的生殖器官,用于在交配中转移精子。虽然我们还不能确定这种表型背后的具体机制,但我们暂时将其归因于女性的男性化。我们的文件,这一过程已经发生在人口中抽样的女性的显著比例。几何形态计量学分析表明,雌性可能分为两个离散的表型,尽管有相当大的组内方差。此外,所有有性腺的雌性都进行了妊娠,其中一只产下了活的后代。因此,这些交替的雌性变种似乎具有生殖功能。我们讨论了这一现象的几种可能的解释,包括暴露于男性化的水传播污染物和固定多态性的可能性。此外,我们还提出了一些可能受到这一发现启发的研究方向。
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引用次数: 0
Mapping Biodiversity Through Time and Space: Patterns and Drivers of Fabaceae Collection in Mozambique 通过时间和空间绘制生物多样性:莫桑比克豆科植物收集的模式和驱动因素
IF 2.3 2区 生物学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-02-17 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.72854
Miguel Brilhante, Iain Darbyshire, Maria Cristina Duarte, Margarida Moldão, Salomão Bandeira, Maria M. Romeiras

Despite the extensive diversity of African flora, significant gaps remain in taxonomic research and biodiversity conservation, including under-sampling in highly diverse regions, a shortage of taxonomic expertise, limited financial resources and delays in species descriptions. Type specimens act as effective proxies for tracking the discovery and description of species, providing a historical baseline for assessing taxonomic effort and our understanding of biodiversity. This study presents the first comprehensive analysis of Fabaceae species collected in Mozambique, one of the most diverse and ecologically important plant families in the region. It offers new insights into the taxonomic, spatial and temporal patterns shaping current botanical knowledge through an analysis of Fabaceae type specimens collected in Mozambique. We identified 273 type specimens, including 126 recognised taxa, with a notable proportion of endemism (44 strict-endemic and 18 near-endemic taxa) and a predominance of woody growth forms. Nearly 40% of these taxa lack IUCN conservation assessments, highlighting significant information gaps. The findings reveal that collection activity peaked during colonial botanical initiatives, driven by a small group of prolific collectors and influenced by spatial biases towards southern and central provinces. Using generalised linear modelling, we demonstrate that collection locations were significantly affected by elevation, slope, land cover and proximity to roads and harbours, reflecting the interaction between biogeographic patterns and accessibility. By identifying these historical and geographic biases, our study deepens understanding of Mozambique's botanical heritage and provides a crucial baseline for future floristic and conservation efforts in underexplored regions. Furthermore, this research underscores the vital role of herbarium type specimens as scientific resources supporting taxonomic research and conservation planning, emphasising the importance of preserving and digitising these collections to enhance their accessibility and utility.

尽管非洲植物区系具有广泛的多样性,但在分类学研究和生物多样性保护方面仍存在重大差距,包括在高度多样化的地区取样不足、分类学专业知识短缺、财政资源有限和物种描述滞后。模式标本是跟踪物种发现和描述的有效代理,为评估分类工作和我们对生物多样性的理解提供了历史基线。本研究首次对在莫桑比克收集的豆科植物进行了综合分析,这是该地区最多样化和生态重要的植物科之一。通过对在莫桑比克收集的豆科类型标本的分析,它为形成当前植物学知识的分类学,空间和时间模式提供了新的见解。共鉴定出273个类型标本,包括126个已确认的分类群,其中特有分类群44个为严格地方性分类群,近地方性分类群18个为近地方性分类群,以木本生长形式为主。这些分类群中有近40%缺乏国际自然保护联盟的保护评估,突出了显著的信息差距。研究结果表明,在少数高产采集者的推动下,受南部和中部省份空间偏好的影响,采集活动在殖民地植物活动期间达到顶峰。利用广义线性模型,我们证明了收集地点受到海拔、坡度、土地覆盖以及靠近道路和港口的显著影响,反映了生物地理模式和可达性之间的相互作用。通过识别这些历史和地理偏差,我们的研究加深了对莫桑比克植物遗产的理解,并为未来在未开发地区开展植物区系和保护工作提供了重要的基线。此外,本研究强调了植物标本馆类型标本作为支持分类学研究和保护规划的科学资源的重要作用,强调了保存和数字化这些标本以提高其可及性和实用性的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Genetic Adaptation of Mesorhizobium Symbionts Associated With Caragana in Northern China Deserts 中国北方荒漠锦鸡儿共生中根菌的遗传适应
IF 2.3 2区 生物学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-02-17 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.73134
Xiaoxia Yuan, Hua Li, Xiumin Yu, Zhaojun Ji

Caragana, a keystone leguminous species dominating arid semi-fixed deserts in northern China, forms specialized symbiotic nitrogen-fixing partnerships with Mesorhizobium, which are indispensable for sustaining ecosystem function globally. However, the roles of membrane transporters and nucleotide repair genes in conferring survival advantages to desert-dwelling Mesorhizobium across desert environments remained poorly elucidated. Therefore, a total of 68 representative Mesorhizobium strains associated with Caragana, isolated from five geographically distant areas (A to E) in the desert belt of northern China, were investigated to elucidate the pivotal roles of three membrane transporters (cysW, exoY, idhA) and two nucleotide repair genes (mutS, uvrC) in microbial adaptation to environmental stress. Phylogenetic analysis results revealed that strains assigned to the same genospecies primarily clustered by genetic lineage rather than geographic origin, with stronger intralineage sequence cohesion observed relative to interregional divergence. Notably, phylogenetic trees of membrane transporter genes, nucleotide repair genes, and core genes showed high topological congruence, underscoring their concerted evolutionary dynamics and shared selective pressures. Furthermore, consistent nucleotide diversity (π), low πN/πS ratios (<< 1.0) and genetic distance (Dxy) across populations indicated that purifying selection predominated in membrane transporters and nucleotide repair genes. Elevated recombination impact (r/m) and frequency (ρ/θ) revealed that homogenizing gene flow, rather than mutation, was the primary driver of population differentiation enabling rapid adaptation to desert environments.

锦鸡儿是中国北方干旱半固定沙漠的重要豆科植物,与中根瘤菌形成了特殊的共生固氮伙伴关系,对维持全球生态系统功能至关重要。然而,膜转运蛋白和核苷酸修复基因在沙漠环境中赋予荒漠中根菌生存优势的作用仍然知之甚少。因此,我们从中国北方沙漠带5个地理位置较远的地区(a ~ E)分离了68株与柠条相关的具有代表性的中根瘤菌,以阐明3种膜转运蛋白(cysW、exoY、idhA)和2种核苷酸修复基因(mutS、uvrC)在微生物适应环境胁迫中的关键作用。系统发育分析结果表明,属于同一基因种的菌株主要是根据遗传谱系而不是地理起源聚集在一起的,相对于区域间的差异,谱系内序列的内聚性更强。值得注意的是,膜转运基因、核苷酸修复基因和核心基因的系统发育树显示出高度的拓扑一致性,强调了它们协同的进化动力学和共同的选择压力。此外,一致的核苷酸多样性(π)、较低的π n /π s比(<< 1.0)和遗传距离(Dxy)表明,纯化选择在膜转运蛋白和核苷酸修复基因中占主导地位。较高的重组影响(r/m)和频率(ρ/θ)表明,同质化的基因流(而非突变)是种群分化的主要驱动因素,使其能够快速适应沙漠环境。
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引用次数: 0
Development of a Duplex Digital PCR and Validation on eDNA Water Samples for Monitoring of the Asian Swamp Eel (Monopterus albus/Javanensis) and Bullseye Snakehead (Channa aurolineata/Marulius) in Florida, USA, Freshwater Ecosystems 美国佛罗里达淡水生态系统亚洲沼泽鳗(Monopterus albus/Javanensis)和牛眼蛇头(Channa aurlineata /Marulius)监测的双工数字PCR建立及eDNA水样验证
IF 2.3 2区 生物学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-02-17 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.73088
Melody Bloch, Eric Suarez, Melissa A. Miller, Sergio A. Balaguera-Reina, Cynthia A. Fussell Persaud, Kevin A. Olejniczak, Ericka E. Helmick, Frank J. Mazzotti, Brian W. Bahder

Invasive species are a significant threat to a variety of ecosystems in Florida, with freshwater habitats being of particular concern. Two nonnative species of fish with established populations that are priority organisms for monitoring and management programs are the bullseye snakehead (BS; Channa species complex) and Asian swamp eel (ASE; Monopterus species complex). Recent technological advances have seen the emergence of environmental DNA (eDNA) analysis as a useful tool for the detection and monitoring of target organisms and to assess removal efforts. In this study, a duplex digital polymerase chain reaction (dPCR) was developed, optimized, and validated on control samples and field samples from locations with documented occurrences of target organisms. The assay developed, which allows simultaneous detection of both fish species when present in a sample, demonstrated highly efficient amplification for the corresponding target species with individual assays failing to cross-amplify. Under controlled conditions, high levels of eDNA were detected as early as five minutes post-introduction of BS to water. Additionally, field eDNA samples yielded varying levels of positive amplification for both species based on comparison of fluorescence levels to positive controls (both tissue extract and plasmids with appropriate inserts). These data indicate that through careful assay design and stringent parameter optimization, eDNA results obtained for monitoring of these two fish species can be a viable and cost-effective strategy to detect the presence of these species simultaneously as well as to evaluate the success of removal efforts.

入侵物种对佛罗里达州的各种生态系统构成了重大威胁,淡水栖息地尤其令人担忧。有两种已确定种群的非本土鱼类是监测和管理计划的重点生物,它们是牛眼蛇头鱼(BS; Channa物种复群)和亚洲沼泽鳗(ASE; Monopterus物种复群)。最近的技术进步已经看到环境DNA (eDNA)分析作为检测和监测目标生物以及评估去除效果的有用工具的出现。在这项研究中,双数字聚合酶链反应(dPCR)被开发,优化,并验证了对照样品和现场样品的记录发生的目标生物。所开发的检测方法可以同时检测样品中的两种鱼类,证明了对相应目标物种的高效扩增,而单个分析无法交叉扩增。在受控条件下,早在BS加入水中5分钟后就检测到高水平的eDNA。此外,根据荧光水平与阳性对照(组织提取物和适当插入的质粒)的比较,现场eDNA样品对两个物种产生了不同水平的阳性扩增。这些数据表明,通过仔细的分析设计和严格的参数优化,获得的监测这两种鱼类的eDNA结果可以成为一种可行且具有成本效益的策略,可以同时检测这些物种的存在,并评估去除努力的成功程度。
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引用次数: 0
Correction to “Effects of the Irregular Shelterwood System on Regeneration Dynamics of Shorea robusta Gaertn. f. in Baijalpur Community Forest, Nepal” 对“不规则林分体系对山茱萸更新动态的影响”的修正。f.在尼泊尔Baijalpur社区森林”
IF 2.3 2区 生物学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-02-17 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.73136

Gaire, S., S. Gharti, R. Bhusal, B. Bhattarai, S. Timilsina, D. Dhungana. 2026. “Effects of the Irregular Shelterwood System on Regeneration Dynamics of Shorea robusta Gaertn. f. in Baijalpur Community Forest.” Nepal Ecology and Evolution 16, no. 1: e72885. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.72885.

Figure 3 in the published article is incorrect. The corrected Figure 3 is shown below.

We apologize for this error.

陈建军,陈建军,陈建军,陈建军。2008。“不规则林分体系对山茱萸再生动态的影响”。f.在Baijalpur社区森林。”尼泊尔生态学与进化第16期1: e72885。所发表文章中的https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.72885.Figure 3是不正确的。更正后的图3如下所示。我们为这个错误道歉。
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引用次数: 0
Recommendations for Improving the Modeling of Wintering Waterbird Population Sizes and Trends 改进越冬水鸟种群规模和趋势模型的建议
IF 2.3 2区 生物学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-02-17 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.72902
U. Godeau, E. Gaget, L. Dami, K. Baddour, D. O. S. O. Daf, M. Dakki, T. Frost, M. Hornman, H. Kolberg, S.-H. Lorentsen, B. Molina, F. E. F. F. Moniz, P. Defos du Rau

Biodiversity monitoring at large spatial and temporal scales is essential for informing conservation policies. The International Waterbird Census (IWC) is one of the longest-running global citizen science monitoring schemes, providing critical information to several international agreements. However, analyzing IWC count data poses statistical challenges, including zero inflation, overdispersion, spatial autocorrelation, and missing data. While various modeling approaches have been used to estimate waterbird population size and trends, their ability to handle these issues and the implications for trend estimates remain unassessed. Using IWC count data from five species in the East Atlantic Flyway, we compared four modeling approaches: TRIM (TRends and Indices for Monitoring data), LORI (Low-Rank Interactions), and two generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) with simple or optimized parametrizations. We benchmarked their performance in addressing zero inflation, overdispersion, and spatial autocorrelation across different realistic sampling designs (i.e., alternative dataset configurations). Our results highlight significant limitations in commonly used methods. Simple GLMMs, TRIM, and LORI generally failed to mitigate both zero inflation and overdispersion. In contrast, optimized GLMMs improved model convergence and better addressed these issues by selecting appropriate probability distributions. However, no single distribution performed consistently well across species and sampling designs. Spatial structures were effective in reducing spatial autocorrelation in most cases. We recommend a careful species-specific selection of statistical methods when analyzing count data, as inadequate models may misrepresent population trends and thus misguide conservation efforts. Future research should explore the integration of advanced hierarchical and spatio-temporal models to improve inference from large-scale citizen science datasets.

大空间和时间尺度的生物多样性监测对于制定保护政策至关重要。国际水鸟普查(IWC)是运行时间最长的全球公民科学监测计划之一,为几个国际协议提供关键信息。然而,分析IWC万国表计数数据带来了统计上的挑战,包括零膨胀、过度分散、空间自相关和数据缺失。虽然各种建模方法已被用于估计水鸟种群规模和趋势,但它们处理这些问题的能力以及对趋势估计的影响仍未得到评估。利用IWC在东大西洋飞行路线上的五个物种的计数数据,我们比较了四种建模方法:TRIM(监测数据的趋势和指数)、LORI(低秩相互作用)和两种简单或优化参数化的广义线性混合模型(glmm)。我们在不同的实际抽样设计(即替代数据集配置)中对它们在解决零膨胀、过度分散和空间自相关方面的性能进行了基准测试。我们的结果突出了常用方法的显著局限性。简单的glmm、TRIM和LORI通常无法缓解零通胀和过度分散。相比之下,优化后的glmm提高了模型的收敛性,并通过选择合适的概率分布更好地解决了这些问题。然而,没有一个单一的分布在物种和抽样设计中表现一致。在大多数情况下,空间结构可以有效地降低空间自相关。我们建议在分析计数数据时谨慎选择特定物种的统计方法,因为不适当的模型可能会歪曲种群趋势,从而误导保护工作。未来的研究应探索先进的层次模型和时空模型的融合,以提高大规模公民科学数据集的推理能力。
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Ecology and Evolution
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