Ecological Monographs最新文献

Tropical savannas are characterized by high primary productivity and high fire frequency, such that much of the carbon captured by vegetation is rapidly returned to the atmosphere. Hence, there have been suggestions that management-driven reductions in savanna fire frequency and/or severity could significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and sequester carbon in tree biomass. However, a key knowledge gap is the extent to which savanna tree biomass will respond to modest shifts in fire regimes due to plausible, large-scale management interventions. Here, we: (1) characterize relationships between the frequency and severity of fires and key demographic rates of savanna trees, based on long-term observations in vegetation monitoring plots across northern Australia; (2) use these relationships to develop a process-explicit demographic model describing the effects of fire on savanna tree populations; and (3) use the demographic model to address the question: to what extent is it feasible, through the strategic application of prescribed burning, to increase tree biomass in Australian tropical savannas? Our long-term tree monitoring dataset included observations of 12,344 tagged trees in 236 plots, monitored for between 3 and 24 years. Analysis of this dataset showed that frequent high-severity fires significantly reduced savanna tree recruitment, survival, and growth. Our demographic model suggested that: (1) despite the negative effects of frequent high-severity fires on demographic rates, savanna tree biomass appears to be suppressed by only a relatively small amount by contemporary fire regimes, characterized by a mix of low- to high-severity fires; and (2) plausible, management-driven reductions in the frequency of high-severity fires are likely to lead to increases in tree biomass of about 11.0 t DM ha⁻¹ (95% CI: −1.2–20.8) over a century. Accounting for this increase in carbon storage could generate significant carbon credits, worth, on average, three times those generated annually by current greenhouse gas (methane and nitrous oxide) abatement projects, and has the potential to significantly increase the economic viability of fire/carbon projects, thereby promoting ecologically sustainable management of tropical savannas in Australia and elsewhere. This growing industry has the potential to bring much-needed economic activity to savanna landscapes, without compromising important natural and cultural values.

Symbiotic nitrogen fixation (SNF) is a key ecological process whose impact depends on the strategy of SNF regulation—the degree to which rates of SNF change in response to limitation by N versus other resources. SNF that is obligate or exhibits incomplete downregulation can result in excess N fixation, whereas a facultative SNF strategy does not. We hypothesized that tree-based SNF strategies differed by latitude (tropical vs. temperate) and symbiotic type (actinorhizal vs. rhizobial). Specifically, we expected tropical rhizobial symbioses to display strongly facultative SNF as an explanation of their success in low-latitude forests. In this study we used ¹⁵N isotope dilution field experiments in New York, Oregon, and Hawaii to determine SNF strategies in six N-fixing tree symbioses. Nitrogen fertilization with +10 and +15 g N m⁻² year⁻¹ for 4–5 years alleviated N limitation in all taxa, paving the way to determine SNF strategies. Contrary to our hypothesis, all six of the symbioses we studied sustained SNF even at high N. Robinia pseudoacacia (temperate rhizobial) fixed 91% of its N (%N_dfa) in controls, compared to 64% and 59% in the +10 and +15 g N m⁻² year⁻¹ treatments. For Alnus rubra (temperate actinorhizal), %N_dfa was 95%, 70%, and 60%. For the tropical species, %N_dfa was 86%, 80%, and 82% for Gliricidia sepium (rhizobial); 79%, 69%, and 67% for Casuarina equisetifolia (actinorhizal); 91%, 42%, and 67% for Acacia koa (rhizobial); and 60%, 51%, and 19% for Morella faya (actinorhizal). Fertilization with phosphorus did not stimulate tree growth or SNF. These results suggest that the latitudinal abundance distribution of N-fixing trees is not caused by a shift in SNF strategy. They also help explain the excess N in many forests where N fixers are common.

Forests are ecosystems critical to understanding the global carbon budget, due to their carbon sequestration potential in both aboveground and belowground compartments, especially in species-rich forests. Soil carbon sequestration is strongly linked to soil microbial communities, and this link is mediated by the tree community, likely due to modifications of microenvironmental conditions (i.e., biotic conditions, soil properties, and microclimate). We studied soil carbon concentration and the soil microbial biomass of 180 local neighborhoods along a gradient of tree species richness ranging from 1 to 16 tree species per plot in a Chinese subtropical forest experiment (BEF-China). Tree productivity and different tree functional traits were measured at the neighborhood level. We tested the effects of tree productivity, functional trait identity, and dissimilarity on soil carbon concentrations, and their mediation by the soil microbial biomass and microenvironmental conditions. Our analyses showed a strong positive correlation between soil microbial biomass and soil carbon concentrations. In addition, soil carbon concentration increased with tree productivity and tree root diameter, while it decreased with litterfall C:N content. Moreover, tree productivity and tree functional traits (e.g., fungal root association and litterfall C:N ratio) modulated microenvironmental conditions with substantial consequences for soil microbial biomass. We also showed that soil history and topography should be considered in future experiments and tree plantations, as soil carbon concentrations were higher at sites where historical (i.e., at the beginning of the experiment) carbon concentrations were high, themselves being strongly affected by the topography. Altogether, these results implied that the quantification of the different soil carbon pools is critical for understanding microbial community–soil carbon stock relationships and their dependence on tree diversity and microenvironmental conditions.

Ecotones linking open and forested habitats contain multiple microhabitats with varying vegetal structures and microclimatic regimes. Ecotones host many insect species whose development is intimately linked to the microclimatic conditions where they grow (e.g., the leaves of their host plants and the surrounding air). Yet microclimatic heterogeneity at these fine scales and its effects on insects remain poorly quantified for most species. Here we studied how interspecific differences in the use of microhabitats across ecotones lead to contrasting thermal exposure and survival costs between two closely-related butterflies (Pieris napi and P. rapae). We first assessed whether butterflies selected different microhabitats to oviposit and quantified the thermal conditions at the microhabitat and foliar scales. We also assessed concurrent changes in the quality and availability of host plants. Finally, we quantified larval time of death under different experimental temperatures (thermal death time [TDT] curves) to predict their thermal mortality considering both the intensity and the duration of the microclimatic heat challenges in the field. We identified six processes determining larval thermal exposure at fine scales associated with butterfly oviposition behavior, canopy shading, and heat and water fluxes at the soil and foliar levels. Leaves in open microhabitats could reach temperatures 3–10°C warmer than the surrounding air while more closed microhabitats presented more buffered and homogeneous temperatures. Interspecific differences in microhabitat use matched the TDT curves and the thermal mortality in the field. Open microhabitats posed acute heat challenges that were better withstood by the thermotolerant butterfly, P. rapae, where the species mainly laid their eggs. Despite being more thermosensitive, P. napi was predicted to present higher survivals than P. rapae due to the thermal buffering provided by their selected microhabitats. However, its offspring could be more vulnerable to host-plant scarcity during summer drought periods. Overall, the different interaction of the butterflies with microclimatic and host-plant variation emerging at fine scales and their different thermal sensitivity posed them contrasting heat and resource challenges. Our results contribute to setting a new framework that predicts insect vulnerability to climate change based on their thermal sensitivity and the intensity, duration, and accumulation of their heat exposure.

Understanding the demographic drivers of range contractions is important for predicting species' responses to climate change; however, few studies have examined the effects of climate change on survival and recruitment across species' ranges. We show that climate change can drive trailing edge range contractions through the effects on apparent survival, and potentially recruitment, in a migratory songbird. We assessed the demographic drivers of trailing edge range contractions using a long-term demography dataset for the black-throated blue warbler (Setophaga caerulescens) collected across elevational climate gradients at the trailing edge and core of the breeding range. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the effect of climate change on apparent survival and recruitment and to forecast population viability at study plots through 2040. The trailing edge population at the low-elevation plot became locally extinct by 2017. The local population at the mid-elevation plot at the trailing edge gradually declined and is predicted to become extirpated by 2040. Population declines were associated with warming temperatures at the mid-elevation plot, although results were more equivocal at the low-elevation plot where we had fewer years of data. Population density was stable or increasing at the range core, although warming temperatures are predicted to cause population declines by 2040 at the low-elevation plot. This result suggests that even populations within the geographic core of the range are vulnerable to climate change. The demographic drivers of local population declines varied between study plots, but warming temperatures were frequently associated with declining rates of population growth and apparent survival. Declining apparent survival in our study system is likely to be associated with increased adult emigration away from poor-quality habitats. Our results suggest that demographic responses to warming temperatures are complex and dependent on local conditions and geographic range position, but spatial variation in population declines is consistent with the climate-mediated range shift hypothesis. Local populations of black-throated blue warblers near the warm-edge range boundary at low latitudes and low elevations are likely to be the most vulnerable to climate change, potentially leading to local extirpation and range contractions.

Understanding mechanisms that generate range limits is central to knowing why species are found where they are and how they will respond to environmental change. There is growing awareness that biotic interactions play an important role in generating range limits. However, current theory and data overwhelmingly focus on abiotic drivers and antagonistic interactions. Here we explore the effect that mutualists have on their partner's range limits: the geographic “footprint” of mutualism. This footprint arises from two general processes: modification of a partner's niche through environment-dependent fitness effects and, for a subset of mutualisms, dispersal opportunities that lead suitable habitats to be filled. We developed a conceptual framework that organizes different footprints of mutualism and the underlying mechanisms that shape them, and evaluated supporting empirical evidence from the primary literature. In the available literature, we found that the fitness benefits and dispersal opportunities provided by mutualism can extend species' ranges; conversely, the absence of mutualism can constrain species from otherwise suitable regions of their range. Most studies found that the footprint of mutualism is driven by changes in the frequency of mutualist partners from range core to range edge, whereas fewer found changes in interaction outcomes, the diversity of partners, or varying sensitivities of fitness to the effects of mutualists. We discuss these findings with respect to specialization, dependence, and intimacy of mutualism. Much remains unknown about the geographic footprint of mutualisms, leaving fruitful areas for future work. A particularly important future direction is to explore the role of mutualism during range shifts under global change, including the promotion of shifts at leading edges and persistence at trailing edges.

Specifying, assessing, and selecting among candidate statistical models is fundamental to ecological research. Commonly used approaches to model selection are based on predictive scores and include information criteria such as Akaike's information criterion, and cross validation. Based on data splitting, cross validation is particularly versatile because it can be used even when it is not possible to derive a likelihood (e.g., many forms of machine learning) or count parameters precisely (e.g., mixed-effects models). However, much of the literature on cross validation is technical and spread across statistical journals, making it difficult for ecological analysts to assess and choose among the wide range of options. Here we provide a comprehensive, accessible review that explains important—but often overlooked—technical aspects of cross validation for model selection, such as: bias correction, estimation uncertainty, choice of scores, and selection rules to mitigate overfitting. We synthesize the relevant statistical advances to make recommendations for the choice of cross-validation technique and we present two ecological case studies to illustrate their application. In most instances, we recommend using exact or approximate leave-one-out cross validation to minimize bias, or otherwise k-fold with bias correction if k < 10. To mitigate overfitting when using cross validation, we recommend calibrated selection via our recently introduced modified one-standard-error rule. We advocate for the use of predictive scores in model selection across a range of typical modeling goals, such as exploration, hypothesis testing, and prediction, provided that models are specified in accordance with the stated goal. We also emphasize, as others have done, that inference on parameter estimates is biased if preceded by model selection and instead requires a carefully specified single model or further technical adjustments.

Climate warming is considered to be among the most serious of anthropogenic stresses to the environment, because it not only has direct effects on biodiversity, but it also exacerbates the harmful effects of other human-mediated threats. The associated consequences are potentially severe, particularly in terms of threats to species preservation, as well as in the preservation of an array of ecosystem services provided by biodiversity. Among the most affected groups of animals are insects—central components of many ecosystems—for which climate change has pervasive effects from individuals to communities. In this contribution to the scientists' warning series, we summarize the effect of the gradual global surface temperature increase on insects, in terms of physiology, behavior, phenology, distribution, and species interactions, as well as the effect of increased frequency and duration of extreme events such as hot and cold spells, fires, droughts, and floods on these parameters. We warn that, if no action is taken to better understand and reduce the action of climate change on insects, we will drastically reduce our ability to build a sustainable future based on healthy, functional ecosystems. We discuss perspectives on relevant ways to conserve insects in the face of climate change, and we offer several key recommendations on management approaches that can be adopted, on policies that should be pursued, and on the involvement of the general public in the protection effort.

Ecosystem stability has intrigued ecologists for decades, and the realization that the global climate was changing has sharpened and focused this interest. One possible early warning signal of decreasing stability is increasing variability in ecosystems over time with increasing climate variability. Determining climate change effects on community stability, however, requires long-term studies of structure and underlying dynamics, including bottom-up and top-down effects in natural ecosystems. Although relevant datasets were rare in the early years of community ecology, such information has increased in recent decades. We investigated spatiotemporal changes in mean and variability of ecological subsidies (nutrients, phytoplankton, prey colonization), performance metrics of a dominant space occupier (mussels) and its primary predator (sea stars), and sea star predation rates on mussels in relation to climatic oscillations, temperature, and disease on rocky shores. The research involved annually repeated multiyear (~1999–2018), multisite (13 sites nested within five regions along ~260 km of the Oregon coast) observations, measurements, and experiments. We analyzed associations between environmental variables and ecological performance of key elements of the sea star-mussel-dominated mid intertidal system. We found that upwelling declined in some regions, but became more variable across all study regions. Air and water temperatures oscillated, but their mean and variation increased through time, with peak values coinciding with the 2014–2016 combined El Niño and Marine Heat Wave. Ecological subsidies generally declined during the study period but increased in variability. Excepting growth rate, mussel (Mytilus californianus) performance (condition index, reproductive output) generally decreased and became more variable. Primarily due to a sea star wasting epidemic, reproductive output of the top predator Pisaster ochraceus decreased and became more variable, and predation rate on mussels decreased. Analyses indicated that the primary drivers of these changes were temperature-related environmental factors. As declining means and increasing variability of ecological performances can typify destabilizing ecosystems, and environmental trends are toward ever more stressful conditions, the outlook for this iconic ecosystem is discouraging. Immediate and rapid action to mitigate and ultimately reverse climate change likely is the only option available to prevent an irreversible shift in the future of this, and most other ecosystems.