Ecological Monographs最新文献

Ongoing declines in insect populations have led to substantial concern and calls for conservation action. However, even for relatively well studied groups, like butterflies, information relevant to species-specific status and risk is scattered across field guides, the scientific literature, and agency reports. Consequently, attention and resources have been spent on a minuscule fraction of insect diversity, including a few well studied butterflies. Here we bring together heterogeneous sources of information for 396 butterfly species to provide the first regional assessment of butterflies for the 11 western US states. For 184 species, we use monitoring data to characterize historical and projected trends in population abundance. For another 212 species (for which monitoring data are not available, but other types of information can be collected), we use exposure to climate change, development, geographic range, number of host plants, and other factors to rank species for conservation concern. A phylogenetic signal is apparent, with concentrations of declining and at-risk species in the families Lycaenidae and Hesperiidae. A geographic bias exists in that many species that lack monitoring data occur in the more southern states where we expect that impacts of warming and drying trends will be most severe. Legal protection is rare among the taxa with the highest risk values: of the top 100 species, one is listed as threatened under the US Endangered Species Act and one is a candidate for listing. Among the many taxa not currently protected, we highlight a short list of species in decline, including Vanessa annabella, Thorybes mexicanus, Euchloe ausonides, and Pholisora catullus. Notably, many of these species have broad geographic ranges, which perhaps highlights a new era of insect conservation in which small or fragmented ranges will not be the only red flags that attract conservation attention.

The encroachment of woody plants into grasslands is a global phenomenon with implications for biodiversity and ecosystem function. Understanding and predicting the pace of expansion and the underlying processes that control it are key challenges in the study and management of woody encroachment. Theory from spatial population biology predicts that the occurrence and speed of expansion should depend sensitively on the nature of conspecific density dependence. If fitness is maximized at the low-density encroachment edge, then shrub expansion should be “pulled” forward. However, encroaching shrubs have been shown to exhibit positive feedbacks, whereby shrub establishment modifies the environment in ways that facilitate further shrub recruitment and survival. In this case there may be a fitness cost to shrubs at low density causing expansion to be “pushed” from behind the leading edge. We studied the spatial dynamics of creosotebush (Larrea tridentata), which has a history of encroachment into Chihuahuan Desert grasslands over the past century. We used demographic data from observational censuses and seedling transplant experiments to test the strength and direction of density dependence in shrub fitness along a gradient of shrub density at the grass–shrub ecotone. We also used seed-drop experiments and wind data to construct a mechanistic seed-dispersal kernel, then connected demography and dispersal data within a spatial integral projection model (SIPM) to predict the dynamics of shrub expansion. Contrary to expectations based on potential for positive feedbacks, the shrub encroachment wave is “pulled” by maximum fitness at the low-density front. However, the predicted pace of expansion was strikingly slow (ca. 8 cm/year), and this prediction was supported by independent resurveys of the ecotone showing little to no change in the spatial extent of shrub cover over 12 years. Encroachment speed was acutely sensitive to seedling recruitment, suggesting that this population may be primed for pulses of expansion under conditions that are favorable for recruitment. Our integration of observations, experiments, and modeling reveals not only that this ecotone is effectively stalled under current conditions but also why that is so and how that may change as the environment changes.

Ameliorating the impacts of climate change on communities requires understanding the mechanisms of change and applying them to predict future responses. One way to prioritize efforts is to identify biotic multipliers, which are species that are sensitive to climate change and disproportionately alter communities. We first evaluate the mechanisms underlying the occupancy dynamics of marbled salamanders, a key predator in temporary ponds in the eastern United States We use long-term data to evaluate four mechanistic hypotheses proposed to explain occupancy patterns, including autumn flooding, overwintering predation, freezing, and winterkill from oxygen depletion. Results suggest that winterkill and fall flooding best explain marbled salamander occupancy patterns. A field introduction experiment supports the importance of winterkill via hypoxia rather than freezing in determining overwinter survival and rejects dispersal limitation as a mechanism preventing establishment. We build climate-based correlative models that describe salamander occupancy across ponds and years at two latitudinally divergent sites, a southern and middle site, with and without field-collected habitat characteristics. Correlative models with climate and habitat variation described occupancy patterns better than climate-only models for each site, but poorly predicted occupancy patterns at the site not used for model development. We next built hybrid mechanistic metapopulation occupancy models that incorporated flooding and winterkill mechanisms. Although hybrid models did not describe observed site-specific occupancy dynamics better than correlative models, they better predicted the other site's dynamics, revealing a performance trade-off between model types. Under future climate scenarios, models predict an increased occupancy of marbled salamanders, especially at the middle site, and expansion at a northern site beyond the northern range boundary. Evidence for the climate sensitivity of marbled salamanders combined with their disproportionate ecological impacts suggests that they might act as biotic multipliers of climate change in temporary ponds. More generally, we predict that top aquatic vertebrate predators will expand into temperate-boreal lakes as climate change reduces winterkill worldwide. Predaceous species with life histories sensitive to winter temperatures provide good candidates for identifying additional biotic multipliers. Building models that include biological mechanisms for key species such as biotic multipliers could better predict broad changes in communities and design effective conservation actions.

Climatic conditions are widely thought to govern the distribution and abundance of ectoparasites, such as the blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis), vector of the agents of Lyme disease and other emerging human pathogens. However, translating physiological tolerances to distributional limits or mortality is challenging. Ticks may be able to avoid or tolerate unsuitable conditions, and what is lethal to one life history stage may not extend to others. Thus, even after decades of research, there are clear gaps in our knowledge about how climatic conditions determine tick distributions or patterns of abundance. We present results from a 3-year study combining daily hazard models and data from field experiments at three sites spanning much of I. scapularis' current latitudinal distribution. We examine three predominant hypotheses regarding how temperature and vapor pressure deficits affect stage-specific survival and transition success and consider how these results influence population growth and distribution. We found that larvae are sensitive to temperature and vapor pressure deficits, whereas mortality of nymphs and adults is consistent with depletion of energy reserves. Consistent with prior work, we found that overwinter survival was high and successful stage transitions (e.g., fed nymphs molting to adults) were sensitive to temperature. Collectively, results from this comprehensive, multiyear, multistage field study suggest that population growth of I. scapularis is less limited by restrictive climatic conditions than has been broadly assumed, although influences on larval survival may slow tick population growth and establishment in some desiccating conditions. Further studies should integrate climate effects on stage-specific survival to better understand these effects on population dynamics and range expansion in a changing climate.

Invertebrate herbivory is a crucial process contributing to the cycling of nutrients and energy in terrestrial ecosystems. While the function of herbivory can decrease with land-use intensification, the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. We hypothesize that land-use intensification impacts invertebrate leaf herbivory rates mainly through changes in characteristics of plants and insect herbivores. We investigated herbivory rates (i.e., damaged leaf area) on the most abundant plant species in forests and grasslands and along land-use intensity gradients on 297 plots in three regions of Germany. To evaluate the contribution of shifts in plant community composition, we quantified herbivory rates at plant species level and aggregated at plant community level. We analyzed pathways linking land-use intensity, plant and insect herbivore characteristics, and herbivory rates. Herbivory rates at plant species and community level decreased with increasing land-use intensity in forests and grasslands. Path analysis revealed strong direct links between land-use intensity and herbivory rates. Particularly at the plant community level, differences in plant and herbivore composition also contributed to changes in herbivory rates along land-use intensity gradients. In forests, high land-use intensity was characterized by a larger proportion of coniferous trees, which was linked to reduced herbivory rates. In grasslands, changes in the proportion of grasses, plant fiber content, as well as the taxonomic composition of herbivore assemblages contributed to reduced herbivory rates. Our study highlights the potential of land-use intensification to impair ecosystem functioning across ecosystems via shifts in plant and herbivore characteristics. De-intensifying land use in grasslands and reducing the share of coniferous trees in temperate forests can help to restore ecosystem functionality in these systems.

Understanding the factors that drive community-wide assembly of plant-pollinator systems along environmental gradients has considerable evolutionary, ecological, and applied significance. Variation in thermal environments combined with intrinsic differences among pollinators in thermal biology have been proposed as drivers of community-wide pollinator gradients, but this suggestion remains largely speculative. We test the hypothesis that seasonality in bee pollinator composition in Mediterranean montane habitats of southeastern Spain, which largely reflects the prevalence during the early flowering season of mining bees (Andrena), is a consequence of the latter's thermal biology. Quantitative information on seasonality of Andrena bees in the whole plant community (275 plant species) and their thermal microenvironment was combined with field and laboratory data on key aspects of the thermal biology of 30 species of Andrena (endothermic ability, warming constant, relationships of body temperature with ambient and operative temperatures). Andrena bees were a conspicuous, albeit strongly seasonal component of the pollinator assemblage of the regional plant community, visiting flowers of 153 different plant species (57% of total). The proportion of Andrena relative to all bees reached a maximum among plant species which flowered in late winter and early spring, and declined precipitously from May onward. Andrena were recorded only during the cooler segment of the annual range of air temperatures experienced at flowers by the whole bee assemblage. These patterns can be explained by features of Andrena's thermal biology: null to weak endothermy; ability to forage at much lower body temperature than strongly endothermic bees (difference ~ 10°C); low upper tolerable limit of body temperature, beyond which thermal stress presumably precluded foraging at the warmest period of year; weak thermoregulatory capacity; and high warming constant enhancing ectothermic warming. Our results demonstrate the importance of lineage-specific pollinator traits as drivers of seasonality in community-wide pollinator composition; show that exploitation of cooler microclimates by bees does not require strong endothermy; and suggest that intense endothermy and precise thermoregulation probably apply to a minority of bees. Medium- and large-sized bees with low upper thermal limits and weak thermoregulatory ability can actually be more adversely affected by climate warming than large, hot-blooded, extremely endothermic species.

Density-dependent feedback is recognized as important regulatory mechanisms of population size. Considering the spatial scales over which such feedback operates has advanced our theoretical understanding of metapopulation dynamics. Yet, metapopulation models are rarely fit to time-series data and tend to omit details of the natural history and behavior of long-lived, highly mobile species such as colonial mammals and birds. Seabird metapopulations consist of breeding colonies that are connected across large spatial scales, within a heterogeneous marine environment that is increasingly affected by anthropogenic disturbance. Currently, we know little about the strength and spatial scale of density-dependent regulation and connectivity between colonies. Thus, many important seabird conservation and management decisions rely on outdated assumptions of closed populations that lack density-dependent regulation. We investigated metapopulation dynamics and connectivity in an exemplar seabird species, the Northern gannet (Morus bassanus), using more than a century of census data of breeding colonies distributed across the Northeast Atlantic. We developed and fitted these data to a novel hierarchical Bayesian state-space model, to compare increasingly complex scenarios of metapopulation regulation through lagged, local, regional, and global density dependence, as well as different mechanisms for immigration. Models with conspecific attraction fit the data better than the equipartitioning of immigrants. Considering local and regional density dependence jointly improved model fit slightly, but importantly, future colony size projections based on different mechanistic regulatory scenarios varied widely: a model with local and regional dynamics estimated a lower metapopulation capacity (645,655 Apparently Occupied Site [AOS]) and consequently higher present saturation (63%) than a model with local density dependence (1,367,352 AOS, 34%). Our findings suggest that metapopulation regulation in the gannet is more complex than traditionally assumed, and highlight the importance of using models that consider colony connectivity and regional dynamics for conservation management applications guided by precautionary principles. Our study advances our understanding of metapopulation dynamics in long-lived colonial species and our approach provides a template for the development of metapopulation models for colonially living birds and mammals.

Diversity–biomass relationships (DBRs) often vary with spatial scale in terrestrial ecosystems, but the mechanisms driving these scale-dependent patterns remain unclear, especially for highly heterogeneous forest ecosystems. This study explores how mutualistic associations between trees and different mycorrhizal fungi, i.e., arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) vs. ectomycorrhizal (EM) association, modulate scale-dependent DBRs. We hypothesized that in soil-heterogeneous forests with a mixture of AM and EM tree species, (i) AM and EM tree species would respond in contrasting ways (i.e., positively vs. negatively, respectively) to increasing soil fertility, (ii) AM tree dominance would contribute to higher tree diversity and EM tree dominance to greater standing biomass, and that as a result (iii) mycorrhizal associations would exert an overall negative effect on DBRs across spatial scales. To empirically test these hypotheses, we collected detailed tree distribution and soil information (e.g., nitrogen, phosphorus, organic matter, pH) from seven temperate and subtropical AM–EM mixed forest megaplots (16–50 ha). Using a spatial codispersion null model and structural equation modeling, we identified the relationships among AM or EM tree dominance, soil fertility, tree species diversity, and biomass and, thus, DBRs across 0.01- to 1-ha scales. We found the first evidence overall supporting the three aforementioned hypotheses in these AM–EM mixed forests: (i) In most forests, with increasing soil fertility, tree communities changed from EM-dominated to AM-dominated; (ii) increasing AM tree dominance had an overall positive effect on tree diversity and a negative effect on biomass, even after controlling for soil fertility and number of trees. Together, (iii) the changes in mycorrhizal dominance along soil fertility gradients weakened the positive DBR observed at 0.01- to 0.04-ha scales in nearly all forests and drove negative DBRs at 0.25- to 1-ha scales in four out of seven forests. Hence, this study highlights a soil-related mycorrhizal dominance mechanism that could partly explain why, in many natural forests, biodiversity–ecosystem functioning (BEF) relationships shift from positive to negative with increasing spatial scale.

Identifying climate-change refugia is a key adaptation strategy for reducing global warming impacts. Knowledge of the effects of underlying geology on thermal regime along climate gradients and the ecological responses to the geology-controlled thermal regime is essential to plan appropriate climate adaptation strategies. In the present study, the dominance of volcanic rocks in the watershed is used as a landscape-scale surrogate for cold groundwater inputs to clarify the importance of underlying geology in stream ecosystems along climate gradients. First, using hundreds of monitoring stations distributed across multiple catchments, we explored the relationship between watershed geology and the mean summer water temperature of mountain streams along climate gradients in the Japanese archipelago. Mean summer water temperature was explained by the interaction between the watershed geology and climate in addition to independent effects. The cooling effect supported by volcanic rocks reached up to 3.3°C among study regions, which was more pronounced in streams with less summer precipitation or lower air temperatures. Next, we examined the function of volcanic streams as cold refugia under contemporary and future climatic conditions. Community composition analyses revealed that volcanic streams hosted distinct stream communities composed of more cold-water species compared with nonvolcanic streams. Scenario analyses based on multiple global climate models and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) revealed a geology-related pattern of thermal habitat loss for cold-water species. Nonvolcanic streams rapidly declined in thermally suitable habitats for lotic sculpins even under the lowest emission scenario (RCP 2.6). In contrast, most volcanic streams will be sustained below the thermal threshold, especially for low- and mid-level emission scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5). However, the distinct stream community in volcanic streams and geology-dependent habitat loss for lotic sculpins was not uniform and were more pronounced in streams with less summer precipitation or lower air temperatures. These findings highlight that underlying geology, climate variability, and their interaction should be considered simultaneously for the effective management of climate-change refugia in mountain streams.

Drivers of phytoplankton and zooplankton dynamics vary spatially and temporally in estuaries due to variation in hydrodynamic exchange and residence time, complicating efforts to understand controls on food web productivity. We conducted approximately monthly (2012–2019; n = 74) longitudinal sampling at 10 fixed stations along a freshwater tidal terminal channel in the San Francisco Estuary, California, characterized by seaward to landward gradients in water residence time, turbidity, nutrient concentrations, and plankton community composition. We used multivariate autoregressive state space (MARSS) models to quantify environmental (abiotic) and biotic controls on phytoplankton and mesozooplankton biomass. The importance of specific abiotic drivers (e.g., water temperature, turbidity, nutrients) and trophic interactions differed significantly among hydrodynamic exchange zones with different mean residence times. Abiotic drivers explained more variation in phytoplankton and zooplankton dynamics than a model including only trophic interactions, but individual phytoplankton–zooplankton interactions explained more variation than individual abiotic drivers. Interactions between zooplankton and phytoplankton were strongest in landward reaches with the longest residence times and the highest zooplankton biomass. Interactions between cryptophytes and both copepods and cladocerans were stronger than interactions between bacillariophytes (diatoms) and zooplankton taxa, despite contributing less biovolume in all but the most landward reaches. Our results demonstrate that trophic interactions and their relative strengths vary in a hydrodynamic context, contributing to food web heterogeneity within estuaries at spatial scales smaller than the freshwater to marine transition.