The human space exploration activities on Mars, such as space observation stations and scientific research, etc., need the support of planetary geotechnical theory. Due to the rarity and arbitrary shapes of Martian rock samples, it is difficult to obtain their probability distribution of mechanical properties through the macroscale rock mechanics experiments (macro-RME) with standard samples. In this work, a novel and effective probabilistic method was proposed to estimate the probability distribution of mechanical and fracture properties of Martian rocks through the microscale rock mechanical experiments (micro-RME), probability model and energy-based method combined with the mechanical property correlation. Firstly, the minerals of the NWA12564 Martian meteorite were analyzed through the TESCAN Integrated Mineral Analyzer (TIMA) and grid nanoindentation tests. The optimal probability distribution of fracture toughness () was obtained through the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test and an energy method. Secondly, the probability distribution of macroscale fracture toughness () was derived by an upscaling method and Monte Carlo simulations (MCS). Thirdly, the probability distributions of tensile strength () and unconfined compressive strength () were estimated by the mechanical property correlations with the macroscale fracture toughness . The research also indicated that, while the macroscale mechanical and fracture properties of Martian rocks follow a lognormal distribution, the microscopic fracture toughness of the five minerals may follow distinct probability distributions. The proposed method enables the estimation of the probability distribution of mechanical and fracture properties with arbitrarily shaped and sized Martian rocks, and the obtained properties provide support to the future Mars exploration.
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