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Generation of Synthetic Daily Weather for Climate Change Scenarios and Extreme Storm Intensification 气候变化情景和极端风暴增强的合成每日天气生成
Pub Date : 2019-03-20 DOI: 10.5539/ENRR.V9N2P1
J. Garbrecht, X. Zhang, David Brown, P. Busteed
Long-term simulations in watershed hydrology, soil and nutrient transport, and sustainability of agricultural production systems require long-term weather records that are often not available at the location of interest. Generation of synthetic daily weather data is a common approach to augment limited weather observations. Here a synthetic daily weather generation model (called SYNTOR) is described. SYNTOR fulfills the traditional role of generating alternative weather realizations that have statistical properties similar to those of the parent historical weather it is intended to simulate. In addition, it has the capability to simulate daily weather records for climate change scenarios and storm intensification due to climate change. The various model components are briefly summarized and an application is presented for semi-arid climate conditions in west-central Oklahoma. SYNTOR generated daily weather compared well with observed weather values. Climate change is simulated by adjusting weather generation parameters to reflect the changed mean monthly weather values of climate projections. Storm intensification is approximated by increasing the top 10 percentile of storm distribution by a predefined amount based on previous studies of trends in United States precipitation. Further evaluation of published storm intensification values and associated uncertainties and spatial variability is recommended.
流域水文学、土壤和养分运输以及农业生产系统的可持续性的长期模拟需要长期的天气记录,而这些记录往往无法在相关地点获得。生成合成的每日天气数据是增加有限的天气观测的常用方法。这里描述了一个合成的每日天气生成模型(称为SYNTOR)。SYNTOR完成了生成替代天气实现的传统角色,这些替代天气实现具有与其拟模拟的父历史天气相似的统计属性。此外,它还具有模拟气候变化情景和由于气候变化而引起的风暴增强的每日天气记录的能力。简要总结了各种模式分量,并介绍了在俄克拉何马州中西部半干旱气候条件下的应用。SYNTOR生成的每日天气与观测到的天气值比较良好。通过调整天气生成参数来模拟气候变化,以反映气候预估的月平均天气值的变化。风暴强度是通过将风暴分布的前10%增加一个预先确定的量来估计的,这个量是基于以前对美国降水趋势的研究。建议进一步评价已公布的风暴强度值及其相关的不确定性和空间变异性。
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引用次数: 2
Reviewer Acknowledgements for Environment and Natural Resources Research, Vol. 9, No. 1 《环境与自然资源研究》第九卷第1期审稿人致谢
Pub Date : 2019-02-28 DOI: 10.5539/enrr.v9n1p91
Emily S. Lin
Reviewer Acknowledgements for Environment and Natural Resources Research, Vol. 9, No. 1, 2019
《环境与自然资源研究》,2019年第1期
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引用次数: 0
Empowerment of Palm Sugar Peasants at the Forest Edge of Bogani Nani Wartabone National Park, Indonesia: A Study of Problems, Local Potentials, and Priority Ideas Towards Empowered Community 印度尼西亚Bogani Nani Wartabone国家公园森林边缘的棕榈糖农民赋权:问题、当地潜力和赋权社区优先想法的研究
Pub Date : 2019-02-28 DOI: 10.5539/ENRR.V9N1P77
Muhammad Obie, Indra Dewi Sery Yusuf, S. Sumai
This study analyzed the roots of problem of palm sugar peasants at the forest edge of Bogani Nani Wartabone National Park; local potentials in producing palm sugar as a livelihood base; and their priority ideas to create empowered communities. Data collection was done through observation, in-depth interviews, Focused Group Discussion, and literature. The results showed that there were many problems faced by peasants in producing palm sugar, namely the forest where they took firewood was taken over by the national park; discourse on resettlement following the construction of a reservoir; damaged road infrastructure; did not have adequate means of producing palm sugar; uneven government assistance; and marketing of palm sugar through middlemen. In addition to the existing problems, it turns out that there were a number of local potentials that peasants had in developing palm sugar production, namely palm trees growed naturally; palm gardens owned by the peasants themselves; every peasant had sufficient knowledge how to produce palm sugar; palm sugar production was a tradition from generation to generation; solidarity ties were still very strong; the existence of village-owned enterprises; and the concern of the village government to palm sugar peasants. Palm sugar peasants had a number of priority ideas to create an empowered community, namely asking the government to revoke the status of the national park area that took over the forest where peasants take firewood; stopped or moved the reservoir construction plan; road infrastructure improvements; assistance with facilities and infrastructure for producing palm sugar; assistance allocated by the government to prioritize poorer people who had never received before; and standardization of palm sugar prices.
本研究分析了Bogani Nani Wartabone国家公园林边棕榈糖农问题的根源;当地生产棕榈糖作为生计基地的潜力;他们的首要想法是创建有权力的社区。通过观察、深度访谈、焦点小组讨论和文献资料收集数据。结果表明,农民在棕榈糖生产中面临着许多问题,即他们取火的森林被国家公园接管;浅谈水库建设后移民安置问题道路基础设施受损;没有足够的生产棕榈糖的手段;政府援助参差不齐;通过中间商销售棕榈糖。除了存在的问题外,农民在发展棕榈糖生产方面还有许多地方的潜力,即棕榈树自然生长;农民自己拥有的棕榈园;每个农民都有足够的知识来生产棕榈糖;棕榈糖生产是代代相传的传统;团结关系仍然非常牢固;村办企业的存在;以及村政府对棕榈糖农的关心。棕榈糖农民有几个优先考虑的想法来创建一个有权力的社区,即要求政府撤销国家公园地区的地位,该地区占用了农民取火的森林;停止或者移动水库建设计划;改善道路基础设施;协助提供生产棕榈糖的设施和基础设施;政府优先向从未获得过援助的贫困人口提供援助;以及棕榈糖价格的标准化。
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引用次数: 5
Vigilance Behaviour of Wild Herbivores when Foraging With or Without Livestock 野生草食动物有无牲畜觅食时的警觉行为
Pub Date : 2019-02-28 DOI: 10.5539/ENRR.V9N1P64
Angelamercy Baltazary, E. Røskaft, A. Treydte
In African savannas, and many other rangelands around the world, wildlife presently find themselves interacting with livestock. Many studies have been conducted on vigilance behaviour in response to presence of predators on foraging grounds, but few scientists have included the presence of livestock and how this affects vigilance when foraging together with wild herbivores. As Ngorongoro Conservation Area (NCA) is an important example of wildlife grazing together with livestock, this phenomenon must be understood to achieve a sustainable land use management plan, particularly in Ngorongoro Conservation Area and in other protected areas. Behavioral observations of wildlife and livestock species were conducted from a vehicle driving along transects within NCA. Once a group was sighted the vehicle was stopped and sighting information recorded. Four species of wild herbivores including plains zebra (Equus burchelli), Thomson’s gazelle (Gazella thomsonii), Grant’s gazelle (Gazella granti) and Wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus) were studied together with the following livestock species including cattle (Bos taurus), goats (Capra aegagrus hircus) and sheep (Ovis aries), in different seasons. 158 groups were recorded. In dry season 47 non –mixed groups (without livestock) and 30 mixed groups (with livestock) were recorded, while, during wet season 49 non -mixed groups and 32 mixed groups were recorded. Behavior was classified as feeding, grooming, laying down, ruminating, grooming, moving, and looking with head up (vigilance) with the use of the focal animal sampling method. Wildlife decreased their foraging time while they increased vigilance behavior when livestock were present; however, more studies are still for a wider conclusion.
在非洲的热带稀树草原,以及世界上许多其他的牧场,野生动物目前发现自己与牲畜相互作用。许多研究都是针对捕食者出现在觅食地时的警觉行为进行的,但很少有科学家把牲畜的存在以及牲畜与野生食草动物一起觅食时对警觉的影响纳入研究范围。由于恩戈罗恩戈罗保护区(NCA)是野生动物与牲畜一起放牧的一个重要例子,必须了解这一现象,以实现可持续的土地利用管理计划,特别是在恩戈罗恩戈罗保护区和其他保护区。对野生动物和牲畜的行为进行了观察,车辆沿着NCA内的横断面行驶。一旦发现一群人,车辆就会停下来,并记录下发现的信息。对平原斑马(Equus burchelli)、汤姆氏瞪羚(Gazella thomsonii)、格兰氏瞪羚(Gazella granti)和角马(Connochaetes taurinus) 4种野生食草动物以及牛(Bos taurus)、山羊(Capra aegagrus hircus)和绵羊(Ovis aries)等家畜在不同季节进行了研究。共记录158组。旱季记录47个非混合组(不饲养牲畜)和30个混合组(饲养牲畜),雨季记录49个非混合组和32个混合组。采用焦点动物取样法,将其行为分类为进食、梳理、躺卧、反刍、梳理、移动和抬头看(警惕)。当有牲畜存在时,野生动物减少了觅食时间,同时增加了警惕行为;然而,还需要更多的研究来得出更广泛的结论。
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引用次数: 1
Household Reliance on Environmental Income in the Western Serengeti Ecosystem, Tanzania 坦桑尼亚西塞伦盖蒂生态系统家庭对环境收入的依赖
Pub Date : 2019-02-11 DOI: 10.5539/enrr.v9n1p54
Moses Titus Kyando, J. Nyahongo, E. Røskaft, M. Nielsen
Pressures on protected areas (PAs) in Tanzania are increasing through the extractive use by surrounding communities. Understanding how environmental reliance varies in relation to distance from PAs and in relation to household’s socio-economic characteristics is important for PAs management and decision of poverty alleviation strategies. This study therefore aimed to quantifying the reliance on cash environmental income as a share in total household income over a gradient of distance from PA boundaries in Western Serengeti and evaluates how it is influenced by socio-economic characteristics. Data was collected through a semi-structured questionnaire of 150 households, randomly selected in three villages. Results indicate that environmental cash-income varies from 21.3% to 45.2% of the total annual cash-income, representing on average 37.8% of the total annual cash-income of all households surveyed. Households closest to the boundary of Serengeti National Park (SNP) are relatively more reliant on environmental income than those located relatively far. Environmental cash-income reliance is associated with household socio-economic factors including distance from SNP boundary, household wealth rank and absolute income from off-farm activities. The main sources of environmental cash-income are fuel-wood, construction materials and wild foods. Reducing environmental reliance requires promotion of off-farm activities, improved wood fuel stoves electricity and alternative sources of fuels.
由于周围社区的采掘利用,坦桑尼亚保护区面临的压力正在增加。了解环境依赖如何随与保护区的距离和家庭社会经济特征的关系而变化,对于保护区的管理和减轻贫困战略的决策非常重要。因此,本研究旨在量化从西塞伦盖蒂保护区边界的距离梯度上对现金环境收入在家庭总收入中所占份额的依赖,并评估其如何受到社会经济特征的影响。数据通过半结构化问卷收集,随机选取三个村庄的150户家庭。结果表明,环境现金收入占年度总现金收入的比例从21.3%到45.2%不等,平均占所有被调查家庭年度总现金收入的37.8%。距离塞伦盖蒂国家公园(SNP)边界最近的家庭对环境收入的依赖程度相对高于距离较远的家庭。环境现金收入依赖与家庭社会经济因素有关,包括与SNP边界的距离、家庭财富等级和非农活动的绝对收入。环境现金收入的主要来源是薪柴、建筑材料和野生食品。减少对环境的依赖需要促进非农业活动、改进木材燃料炉、电力和替代燃料来源。
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引用次数: 6
Assessing Aquifer Stress Index (ASI) Using Rating Method and Analytic Hierarchy Process for a Coastal Unconfined Aquifer 用分级法和层次分析法评价沿海无承压含水层应力指数
Pub Date : 2019-01-31 DOI: 10.5539/ENRR.V9N1P35
N. Somaratne
Small groundwater basins are highly vulnerable to over draft and susceptible to droughts as they are locally recharged. The sustainable development and management of groundwater basins therefore benefits from quantitative assessment of the basin status in terms of the current stress level. This paper introduces the Aquifer Stress Index (ASI) using a rating method and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a widely used multi-criteria decision support technique. Six evaluation criteria were used to determine the ASI; water levels, water quality, groundwater pumping, saline water intrusion, recharge and land use threat. For each criterion, a rating score and weight are used to evaluate the stress level. Rating scores for criteria were assigned based on multiple datasets obtained from the field investigations. Weightings for criteria were determined by pairwise comparison of AHP process. Based on the ASI, five characteristic stress regimes of the aquifers are defined: no stress, low stress, moderate stress, high stress and extreme stress. The stress level indicates the extent of groundwater availability and current development impact on the aquifer integrity. The method was applied in detail to Uley South coastal aquifer, and results indicate that the overall stress level of the aquifer is moderate. This research indicates that declining water levels are the major cause of Uley South basin’s aquifer stress, due to ongoing extractions and reduced long-term recharge. Depending on the aquifer stress level, management plans can be developed for sustainable use of the aquifer to help ensure current and future water security.
小型地下水盆地由于在当地补给,极易受到过度取水和干旱的影响。因此,根据当前压力水平对流域状况进行定量评估有利于地下水流域的可持续发展和管理。本文采用一种评价方法和一种广泛应用的多准则决策支持技术——层次分析法对含水层应力指数进行了介绍。6个评价标准用于确定ASI;水位、水质、地下水抽取、盐水入侵、补给和土地利用威胁。对于每个标准,使用评级分数和权重来评估应力水平。根据从实地调查中获得的多个数据集分配标准评级分数。各指标的权重由层次分析法两两比较确定。在此基础上,定义了无应力、低应力、中等应力、高应力和极端应力5种含水层特征应力状态。应力水平表示地下水可利用程度和当前开发对含水层完整性的影响。将该方法详细应用于Uley南岸含水层,结果表明该含水层的整体应力水平为中等。该研究表明,由于持续的开采和长期补给的减少,水位下降是Uley South盆地含水层应力的主要原因。根据含水层压力水平,可以制定含水层可持续利用的管理计划,以帮助确保当前和未来的水安全。
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引用次数: 2
WWF’s Green Business Model in Protected Area Conservation and Livelihoods Sustenance in Cameroon: The Need for a Shift in Approach? 世界自然基金会在喀麦隆保护保护区和维持生计的绿色商业模式:是否需要改变方法?
Pub Date : 2019-01-04 DOI: 10.5539/ENRR.V9N1P9
J. N. Kimengsi, J. Pretzsch, E. Auch, Balgah Roland Azibo
Rising interests to support green development through targeted conservation approaches in the developing world attracted international NGO attention especially in the 1990s. One of such NGOs, the World-Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) has been backstopping many African nations in the process of realizing the twin objectives of livelihood sustenance and protected area conservation. In the case of Cameroon, one of her key areas of intervention has been the introduction of green business initiatives as a way of strengthening the link between livelihood support and conservation in protected areas. With a focus on Cameroon, we review the green business model (Note 1) as a WWF intervention approach in Africa. We undertake a random survey of household representatives drawn from 7 WWF conservation cooperatives in Cameroon on their perceptions and preferences with regards to the green business initiative. This was complemented by interviews to 8 WWF and partner CSO representatives, and field observations. The results are discussed to include a schema of the green business approach in Africa with a focus on Cameroon, cooperative members’ knowledge levels of the initiative, impact of the initiative and clarity of benefit sharing schemes in place, among others. The pairwise correlation shows a strong positive relationship between knowledge/experience levels and a number of elements including shortcomings of the initiative, the need for strategy improvement, and the tendency for outside influence on the green business choices. This aspect equally showed a strong positive correlation with the need to switch to other green business options and unclear benefit sharing. In conclusion, we argue for a shift in the green business approach to capture issues of improvement in knowledge levels, diversification, technical and institutional capacity building, clarity of benefit sharing, and value chain development. We further advocate for a green business approach in tandem with the aspirations of local populations around protected areas on the one hand, and the need for a conservation cooperative alliance on the other hand. The results contribute to the “green economy” discourse which has significantly gained grounds in all spheres of conservation and development interventions.
特别是在20世纪90年代,通过有针对性的保护措施支持发展中国家绿色发展的兴趣日益增加,引起了国际非政府组织的注意。其中一个非政府组织,世界自然基金会(WWF)一直在支持许多非洲国家实现生计维持和保护区保护的双重目标。就喀麦隆而言,她的主要干预领域之一是引入绿色商业倡议,作为加强生计支持与保护区保护之间联系的一种方式。以喀麦隆为重点,我们回顾了绿色商业模式(注1)作为世界自然基金会在非洲的干预方法。我们对喀麦隆7个世界自然基金会保护合作社的家庭代表进行了随机调查,了解他们对绿色商业倡议的看法和偏好。此外,我们还采访了8位世界自然基金会和合作伙伴公民社会组织的代表,并进行了实地观察。讨论的结果包括一个以喀麦隆为重点的非洲绿色商业方法方案、合作成员对该倡议的知识水平、该倡议的影响以及现有利益分享计划的清晰度等。两两相关表明,知识/经验水平与许多因素之间存在强烈的正相关关系,这些因素包括倡议的缺点、战略改进的需要以及外部对绿色商业选择的影响趋势。这方面同样与转向其他绿色商业选择的需要和不明确的利益分享表现出强烈的正相关。总之,我们主张转变绿色商业方法,以抓住知识水平提高、多样化、技术和制度能力建设、利益分享清晰度和价值链发展等问题。我们进一步提倡绿色商业模式,一方面与保护区周围当地居民的愿望相结合,另一方面与保护合作联盟的需要相结合。研究结果促进了“绿色经济”的讨论,这一讨论在保护和发展干预的所有领域都取得了重大进展。
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引用次数: 8
Geochemical Assessment of Trace Metals in Peri-Urban Drainage and Bioaccumulation in Selected Food Crops in the Kumasi Metropolis, Ghana 加纳库马西大都市城市周边排水中微量金属的地球化学评价和选定粮食作物的生物积累
Pub Date : 2019-01-04 DOI: 10.5539/enrr.v9n1p25
G. Foli, S. Gawu, B. A. Brako, P. Nude
This paper evaluates some geochemical properties of trace metals in peri-urban drainage and bioaccumulation in cassava, plantain, lettuce and sugarcane in the Kumasi metropolis in Ghana, West Africa. The aim is to establish water quality and food safety. Water, sediment and the food crops were sampled along the profiles of Wiwi and Subin rivers for analysis. T-test statistic shows that pH, HCO3, Cl, Cu, As, Pb and Ni are significant in water and sediment. Mean concentrations of Cu, As, Pb and Ni in water and sediment are (0.01mg/l; 3.2mg/kg), (3.08mg/l; 4.9mg/kg), (0.034mg/l; 8.7mg/kg) and (0.021mg/l; 6.1mg/kg), respectively. In water, As, Pb and Ni concentrations are above primary maximum contamination limits of 0.05 mg/l, 0.015 mg/l and 0.020mg/l with metal ratios of 61.54, 2.27 and 1.05, respectively. In sediment, As concentration is above the continental crustal background value of 1.8mg/kg with a metal ratio of 2.72. From geochemical process models: (1) As and Ni adsorbs into sediment and may lead to attenuation in water in closed systems; (2) Cu and Pd are in equilibrium and may affect water quality at higher concentrations. The food crops have trace metals concentrations below reference values and bioaccumulation factors<1. The food crops are therefore excluders, and safe for dietary intake. Members in cassava-plantain-lettuce and cassava-lettuce-sugarcane suites have translocation factors (TFs)>1 for Cu and As, respectively, while lettuce has TF>1 for Pd and Ni. Crops with TF>1 may bioaccumulate the respective trace metals in over a prolonged period.
本文评价了西非加纳库马西大都市区近城水系中微量金属的地球化学性质以及木薯、大蕉、生菜和甘蔗的生物富集。目的是建立水质和食品安全。在Wiwi河和Subin河的剖面上采集了水、沉积物和粮食作物样本进行分析。t检验统计量表明,水体和沉积物中pH、HCO3、Cl、Cu、As、Pb、Ni具有显著性。水体和沉积物中Cu、As、Pb、Ni的平均浓度为(0.01mg/l;3.2毫克/公斤),(3.08 mg / l;4.9毫克/公斤),(0.034 mg / l;8.7mg/kg)和0.021mg/l;分别为6.1毫克/公斤)。水中As、Pb、Ni浓度均高于一级最大污染限值0.05 mg/l、0.015 mg/l和0.020mg/l,金属比值分别为61.54、2.27和1.05。沉积物中砷含量高于大陆地壳背景值1.8mg/kg,金属比为2.72。地球化学过程模型表明:(1)As和Ni在封闭系统中吸附到沉积物中,可能导致水中的衰减;(2) Cu和Pd处于平衡状态,高浓度时可能影响水质。粮食作物中微量金属Cu和As的浓度均低于参考值,而生菜中Pd和Ni的TF>1。TF>1的作物可在较长时间内生物积累相应的微量金属。
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引用次数: 0
Extreme Climate Events and Fish Production in Bangladesh 极端气候事件与孟加拉国渔业生产
Pub Date : 2018-12-17 DOI: 10.5539/ENRR.V9N1P1
J. Biswas, M. Maniruzzaman, M. Haque, M. Hossain, Mushfika Rahman, U. A. Naher, M. H. Ali, W. Kabir
Natural hazards frequently batter Bangladesh and cause damages to fisheries sector of the country. The main objective of the present investigation was to evaluate the effects of storm/tidal surge, waterlogging, cyclone, flood, drought and erosion on spatial distribution of damages and economic loss in fisheries of Bangladesh. Data were collected from existing literatures followed by scoring and attribute-wise maps were prepared using IDRISI3.2. The highest economic loss (US$ 17.65 million) in fishery sector was observed in Southern part and the least in hilly regions. The damages caused by natural hazards followed the order of storm/tidal surge > waterlogging > cyclone > flood > drought > erosion. About 21% areas of South and South-east Bangladesh were affected by high to very high storm/tidal surge. Very severe waterlogging problems were observed in 6.96% areas of the country. Moderate to high damages because of cyclone were found in about 11% areas in South and South-east Bangladesh. Moderate to high flooding problems were mostly prevalent in Central and North-east part of the country covering 15-19 per cent areas. Drought and erosion are less damaging to fishery sector compared to other studied natural hazards. Although exposure index to natural hazards is high, relative index to national economy because of damages to fisheries sector are low. Adaptive measures in coastal areas as a long-term strategy would be participatory construction of hard structures and reclamation/conservation of wetlands throughout the country including improved warning system could be undertaken for minimizing damages in fisheries sector of Bangladesh.
自然灾害经常袭击孟加拉国,对该国渔业部门造成损害。本调查的主要目的是评价风暴/潮涌、内涝、旋风、洪水、干旱和侵蚀对孟加拉国渔业损害和经济损失空间分布的影响。从现有文献中收集数据,然后使用IDRISI3.2进行评分和属性映射。南部地区渔业部门的经济损失最大(1 765万美元),丘陵地区损失最少。自然灾害造成的破坏程度依次为风暴潮>内涝>气旋>洪涝>干旱>侵蚀。孟加拉国南部和东南部约21%的地区受到高至超高风暴/潮汐的影响。全国6.96%的地区出现了严重的内涝问题。孟加拉国南部和东南部约11%的地区受到飓风造成的中度至重度破坏。中至高度水浸问题主要集中在占全国15- 19%地区的中部和东北部。与所研究的其他自然灾害相比,干旱和侵蚀对渔业部门的损害较小。虽然自然灾害的暴露指数高,但由于渔业部门的损害,国民经济的相对指数较低。作为一项长期战略,沿海地区的适应性措施将是在全国各地参与建造硬结构和开垦/养护湿地,包括改进警报系统,以尽量减少对孟加拉国渔业部门的损害。
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引用次数: 4
Extreme Temperature Events and Rice Production in Bangladesh 孟加拉国极端温度事件与水稻生产
Pub Date : 2018-11-30 DOI: 10.5539/ENRR.V8N4P62
M. Maniruzzaman, J. Biswas, M. Hossain, M. Haque, U. A. Naher, N. Kalra
The extreme climatic events are increasing because of climate change impacts and thus likely to influence global agricultural production. Regional assessments on various abiotic factors and its influences on biological entities in diverse geographic locations are needed for understanding uncertainties. Rice grain yields and daily temperature data from 1971–2015 were used to quantify extreme temperature events in different regions of Bangladesh and their impacts on rice yields growing in three seasons of Bangladesh. The regional averaged trends in temperature extremes were consistent with global warming. The occurrence summer days (SU), tropical nights (TR), warm days (TX90), and nights (TN90) and a warm spell duration indicator (WSDI) increased by 0.388 (P0.00001), 0.103 (P0.19), 0.520 (P0.00000), 0.269 (P0.0004), 0.147 (P0.0001), days yr-1, respectively. The frequencies of cold days (TX10) and nights (TN10), and cold spell duration indicator (CSDI) showed decreasing trends of −0.143 (P0.0006), −0.254 (P0.001), and −0.04 (P0.227) day yr-1, respectively. Sharp increases of TR and TN90 indices took place in 1985–2000. Principal component analysis showed that SU, TX90, TN90, WSDI, TX10, TN10 and diurnal temperature range (DTR) were the main influencing factors for seasonal variations in rice yield. Warm and cold nights played a vital role in reducing rice yields. It can be concluded that extreme temperature events will be increased in Bangladesh and thus necessitating heat and cold tolerant rice varieties with appropriate management options for sustained future rice production in Bangladesh.
由于气候变化的影响,极端气候事件正在增加,从而可能影响全球农业生产。为了了解不确定性,需要对不同地理位置的各种非生物因素及其对生物实体的影响进行区域评估。利用1971-2015年的水稻产量和日温度数据,量化孟加拉国不同地区的极端温度事件及其对孟加拉国三个季节水稻产量的影响。极端温度的区域平均趋势与全球变暖一致。夏季日数(SU)、热带夜数(TR)、暖日数(TX90)、暖夜数(TN90)和暖期天数指标(WSDI)分别比上年增加0.388 (P0.00001)、0.103 (P0.19)、0.520 (P0.00000)、0.269 (P0.0004)、0.147 (P0.0001)天。寒日(TX10)、寒夜(TN10)频次和寒潮持续时间指标(CSDI)分别呈- 0.143 (P0.0006)、- 0.254 (P0.001)和- 0.04 (P0.227)日/年递减趋势。TR和TN90指数在1985-2000年间急剧上升。主成分分析表明,SU、TX90、TN90、WSDI、TX10、TN10和日温差(DTR)是水稻产量季节变化的主要影响因子。冷暖夜对水稻减产起着至关重要的作用。可以得出结论,孟加拉国的极端温度事件将增加,因此需要具有适当管理选择的耐热和耐寒水稻品种,以维持孟加拉国未来的水稻生产。
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引用次数: 3
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Environment and Natural Resources Research
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