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Investigation on the Interconnectivity in the Korean Financial Industry 韩国金融业的互联性研究
Pub Date : 2018-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3306502
Hyeon-Hye Go, Hayoung Kim, Jane Yoo
Using weekly stock prices from 1990 to 2016, the trends and the connectivity of major institutions are estimated using Granger causality test and principal component analysis. According to the results, the statistical evidence of the strong connectivity during the financial crises in 1997 and 2008 was found. The connectivity index provides statistically significant information in predicting the changes in CD rates and long-short spreads over the two crises. According to sector-based analysis, commercial and merchant banks have played a significant role in heightening the systemic risks during the 1997 currency crisis, whereas commercial banks and the securities firms played a key role in the 2008 financial crisis.
利用1990 - 2016年的周股价,运用格兰杰因果检验和主成分分析对主要机构的趋势和连通性进行了估计。根据结果,发现了1997年和2008年金融危机期间强连通性的统计证据。连通性指数为预测两次危机期间CD利率和多空价差的变化提供了统计上重要的信息。根据行业分析,商业银行和商业银行在1997年货币危机期间对系统性风险的加剧发挥了重要作用,而商业银行和证券公司在2008年金融危机中发挥了关键作用。
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引用次数: 0
Systemic Risk and the Great Depression 系统性风险和大萧条
Pub Date : 2018-12-01 DOI: 10.3386/W25405
Sanjiv Ranjan Das, K. Mitchener, Angela Vossmeyer
We employ a unique hand-collected dataset and a novel methodology to examine systemic risk before and after the largest U.S. banking crisis of the 20th century. Our systemic risk measure captures both the credit risk of an individual bank as well as a bank’s position in the network. We construct linkages between all U.S. commercial banks in 1929 and 1934 so that we can measure how predisposed the entire network was to risk, where risk was concentrated, and how the failure of more than 9,000 banks during the Great Depression altered risk in the network. We find that the pyramid structure of the commercial banking system (i.e., the network’s topology) created more inherent fragility, but systemic risk was nevertheless fairly dispersed throughout banks in 1929, with the top 20 banks contributing roughly 18% of total systemic risk. The massive banking crisis that occurred between 1930{33 raised systemic risk per bank by 33% and increased the riskiness of the very largest banks in the system. We use Bayesian methods to demonstrate that when network measures, such as eigenvector centrality and a bank’s systemic risk contribution, are combined with balance sheet data capturing ex ante bank default risk, they strongly predict bank survivorship in 1934.
我们采用独特的手工收集数据集和一种新颖的方法来研究20世纪美国最大的银行危机前后的系统性风险。我们的系统风险度量既捕捉单个银行的信用风险,也捕捉银行在网络中的位置。我们在1929年和1934年之间建立了所有美国商业银行之间的联系,以便我们可以衡量整个网络对风险的倾向,风险集中在哪里,以及大萧条期间9,000多家银行的倒闭如何改变了网络中的风险。我们发现,商业银行体系的金字塔结构(即网络的拓扑结构)产生了更多的内在脆弱性,但1929年的系统性风险相当分散在所有银行中,前20家银行贡献了大约18%的总系统性风险。1930年至1933年间发生的大规模银行危机使每家银行的系统性风险增加了33%,并增加了系统中最大银行的风险。我们使用贝叶斯方法证明,当特征向量中心性和银行的系统性风险贡献等网络度量与捕获银行违约风险之前的资产负债表数据相结合时,它们强有力地预测了1934年银行的生存能力。
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引用次数: 12
To Ask or Not To Ask? Bank Capital Requirements and Loan Collateralization 问还是不问?银行资本要求和贷款抵押
Pub Date : 2018-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3290581
H. Degryse, Artashes Karapetyan, Sudipto Karmakar
We study the impact of higher capital requirements on banks' decisions to grant collateralized rather than uncollateralized loans. We exploit the 2011 EBA capital exercise, a quasi-natural experiment that required a number of banks to increase their regulatory capital but not others. This experiment makes secured lending more attractive vis-a-vis unsecured lending for the affected banks as secured loans require less regulatory capital. Using a loan-level dataset covering all corporate loans in Portugal, we identify a novel channel of higher capital requirements: relative to the control group, treated banks require loans to be collateralized more often after the shock, but less so for relationship borrowers. This applies in particular for collateral that saves more on regulatory capital.
我们研究了更高的资本要求对银行决定发放抵押贷款而不是无抵押贷款的影响。我们利用了2011年的EBA资本演习,这是一个准自然的实验,要求一些银行增加监管资本,而其他银行则没有。对于受影响的银行来说,这一实验使得担保贷款相对于无担保贷款更具吸引力,因为担保贷款所需的监管资本较少。使用涵盖葡萄牙所有企业贷款的贷款水平数据集,我们确定了一个新的更高资本要求的渠道:相对于对照组,接受处理的银行在冲击后要求贷款抵押的频率更高,但对关系借款人的要求较低。这尤其适用于能够节省更多监管资本的抵押品。
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引用次数: 24
Inflation, Debt, and Default 通货膨胀、债务和违约
Pub Date : 2018-09-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3259649
Sewon Hur, Illenin Kondo, F. Perri
We study how the co-movement of inflation and economic activity affects real interest rates and the likelihood of debt crises. First, we show that for advanced economies, periods with procyclical inflation are associated with lower real interest rates. Procyclical inflation implies that nominal bonds pay out more in bad times, making them a good hedge against aggregate risk. However, such procyclicality also increases sovereign default risk when the economy deteriorates, since the government needs to make larger (real) payments. In order to evaluate both effects, we develop a model of sovereign default on domestic nominal debt with exogenous inflation risk and domestic risk-averse lenders. Countercyclical inflation is a substitute with default, while procyclical inflation is a complement with it, by increasing default incentives. In good times, when default is unlikely, procyclical inflation yields lower real rates. In bad times, as default becomes more material, procyclical inflation can magnify default risk and trigger an increase in real rates.
我们研究通货膨胀和经济活动的共同运动如何影响实际利率和债务危机的可能性。首先,我们表明,对于发达经济体,顺周期性通胀时期与较低的实际利率相关。顺周期通胀意味着名义债券在经济不景气时回报更高,这使其成为抵御总体风险的良好对冲工具。然而,当经济恶化时,这种顺周期性也会增加主权违约风险,因为政府需要支付更多(实际)款项。为了评估这两种影响,我们建立了一个具有外生通胀风险和国内风险厌恶型贷款人的国内名义债务主权违约模型。逆周期通胀是违约的替代品,而顺周期通胀通过增加违约激励,是违约的补充。在不太可能出现违约的景气时期,顺周期性通胀会降低实际利率。在经济不景气时,随着违约变得更加严重,顺周期性通胀会放大违约风险,引发实际利率上升。
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引用次数: 11
Smart-Beta Herding and Its Economic Risks: Riding the Dragon? 聪明贝塔放牧及其经济风险:骑龙?
Pub Date : 2018-09-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3256432
Eduard Krkoska, K. Schenk-Hoppé
Smart-beta (or factor) investing industry’s assets under management have grown to over $1 trillion. We attempt to survey the merits and risks of this investment style from both professional investors’ and academics’ points of view. After reviewing academic papers, reports of practitioners in the field and relevant news articles around the topic as well as the literature on herding in financial markets, we conclude that herding in smart-beta is likely taking place, with a distinct and growing possibility of a market correction that would catch many factor investors wrong-footed.
智能贝塔(或因子)投资行业管理的资产已经增长到超过1万亿美元。我们试图从专业投资者和学者的角度来调查这种投资方式的优点和风险。在回顾了学术论文、该领域从业者的报告、围绕该主题的相关新闻文章以及有关金融市场羊群效应的文献后,我们得出结论,smart-beta的羊群效应很可能正在发生,市场调整的可能性明显且越来越大,这将使许多因素投资者措手不及。
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引用次数: 0
A Decade Later, Understanding 2008 Financial Crisis 十年后,理解2008年金融危机
Pub Date : 2018-09-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3245923
Roy C. Smith
Ten years and a great deal of study by economists and others leave us still lacking a consensus on (a) what caused the financial crisis of 2008, (b) whether the reforms it generated will be enough to prevent another systemic collapse of the financial system, and (c) whether the reforms are worth their cost in enforcement and compliance expense and lost economic growth due to constraints on lending. This paper contains some of my observations and conclusions.
经济学家和其他人进行了10年的大量研究,但我们仍然对以下问题缺乏共识:(a)是什么导致了2008年的金融危机;(b)由此产生的改革是否足以防止金融体系的另一次系统性崩溃;(c)这些改革在执行和合规方面的成本以及因贷款限制而失去的经济增长是否值得。这篇论文包含了我的一些观察和结论。
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引用次数: 0
The Panic of 1861 and the Advent of Greenbacks and National Banking (a) 1861年的恐慌与美钞和国民银行的出现(上)
Pub Date : 2018-08-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3221436
R. Bruner, Michael T. Caires
Set in 1870, the case describes the situation of Supreme Court Chief Justice Salmon P. Chase, who must render an opinion in Hepburn v. Griswold, which challenges the constitutionality of the creation of a national fiat currency, so-called greenbacks. In 1862, Chase was Secretary of the Treasury in Abraham Lincoln's administration and reluctantly endorsed creating the greenbacks. Now, eight years later, he still harbors misgivings. The task for the student in this case is to recommend a decision. The larger consideration is to assess the massive pivot in US government financial policy that occurred in the 1860s. Excerpt UVA-F-1822 Rev. Oct. 23, 2019 The Panic of 1861 and the Advent of Greenbacks and National Banking (A) Introduction On December 10, 1869, Salmon P. Chase, chief justice of the US Supreme Court, and the other seven justices settled into their chairs to hear arguments in the case of Hepburn v. Griswold. Nominally, the case was about whether a creditor was legally bound to accept payment of the debt in paper currency called “greenbacks” (see Exhibit 1). The decision would hinge on the constitutionality of the federal government's authority to create fiat money. In 1860, Susan Hepburn of Louisville, Kentucky, borrowed $ 11,250 from Henry Griswold and promised to repay the debt by February 20, 1862. She was unable to fulfill her obligation on time. It happened that five days after Hepburn was due to repay the debt (February 25, 1862), the US Congress enacted legislation to issue $ 150million in greenbacks. The Legal Tender Act stated: “And such notes, and shall also be lawful money and a legal tender in payment of all debts, public and private, within the United States…” . . .
这个案例以1870年为背景,描述了最高法院首席大法官萨尔蒙·p·蔡斯(Salmon P. Chase)的处境,他必须在“赫伯恩诉格里斯沃尔德案”(Hepburn v. Griswold)中发表意见,该案件挑战了创造国家法定货币——所谓的美钞——的合宪性。1862年,蔡斯担任亚伯拉罕·林肯(Abraham Lincoln)政府的财政部长,不情愿地支持创造美元。现在,8年过去了,他仍然心存疑虑。在这种情况下,学生的任务是推荐一个决定。更大的考虑是评估19世纪60年代发生的美国政府财政政策的大规模转向。1861年的恐慌与美钞和国民银行的出现(A)介绍1869年12月10日,美国最高法院首席大法官萨尔蒙·p·蔡斯和其他七名法官坐在椅子上听取赫本诉格里斯沃尔德案的辩论。从名义上讲,这个案子是关于债权人是否有法律义务接受被称为“美钞”的纸币支付债务(见图1)。这个决定将取决于联邦政府创造法定货币的权力是否符合宪法。1860年,肯塔基州路易斯维尔的苏珊·赫本向亨利·格里斯沃尔德借了11,250美元,并承诺在1862年2月20日之前偿还这笔债务。她没能按时履行义务。在赫本偿还债务的第五天(1862年2月25日),美国国会颁布立法,发行1.5亿美元的美钞。《法定货币法案》规定:“这些票据,也应是合法的货币和法定货币,用于支付美国境内的所有公共和私人债务……”
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of Expanded Bank Powers on Loan Portfolios Decisions 扩大银行权力对贷款组合决策的影响
Pub Date : 2018-07-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2444324
Gokhan Torna
This paper investigates the impact of the integration of traditional and nontraditional banking activities on loan portfolio management at the consolidated level. The increased risk exposure to nontraditional banking assets, e.g., trading and merchant banking assets, has a nontrivial impact on traditional loan portfolios and, in particular, on the supply of short-term credits. The findings show that confronted with the market-wide shock of the financial crisis, commercial-focused banks which hold larger amounts of risky nontraditional banking assets gravitate their loan portfolios away from business and consumer loan sectors. The results from a quasi-natural experiment reveal that in response to an exogenous regulatory shock of FAS No. 166 and 167, which required banks to transfer off-balance sheet securitized loans onto bank balance sheets, securitizer banks tend to reduce business credits substantially more due to their pre-existing exposures to nontraditional assets.
本文研究了传统和非传统银行业务整合对合并层面贷款组合管理的影响。非传统银行资产(如贸易和商业银行资产)的风险增加,对传统贷款组合,特别是对短期信贷的供应产生了不小的影响。调查结果显示,面对金融危机对整个市场的冲击,持有大量高风险非传统银行资产的以商业为重点的银行将其贷款组合从商业和消费贷款部门转移。准自然实验的结果显示,为了应对外源性监管冲击,FAS第166号和167号要求银行将表外证券化贷款转移到银行资产负债表上,证券化银行倾向于大幅减少商业信贷,因为它们对非传统资产的预先敞口。
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引用次数: 2
Are the Largest Banks Valued More Highly? 最大的银行估值更高吗?
Pub Date : 2018-07-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3213623
Bernadette A. Minton, René M. Stulz, Alvaro G. Taboada
Some argue too-big-to-fail (TBTF) status increases the value of the largest banks. In contrast, we find that the value of the largest banks is negatively related to asset size in normal times, but much less so during the crisis. Further, shareholders lose when large banks cross a TBTF threshold through acquisitions. The negative relation between bank value and bank size for the largest banks cannot be explained by differences in ROA, ROE, equity volatility, tail risk, distress risk, or equity discount rates, but it can be partly explained by the market’s discounting of trading activities. Received December 20, 2017; editorial decision November 14, 2018 by Editor Itay Goldstein.
一些人认为“大到不能倒”(TBTF)的地位增加了大型银行的价值。相比之下,我们发现,在正常时期,最大银行的价值与资产规模呈负相关,但在危机期间,这种关系要小得多。此外,当大型银行通过收购超过TBTF门槛时,股东也会蒙受损失。对于大型银行来说,银行价值与银行规模之间的负相关关系不能用ROA、ROE、股权波动率、尾部风险、困境风险或股权贴现率的差异来解释,但可以部分地用市场对交易活动的贴现来解释。2017年12月20日收稿;编辑决定2018年11月14日编辑Itay Goldstein
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引用次数: 20
If Boilerplate Could Talk 如果样板会说话
Pub Date : 2018-07-04 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2984293
Anna Gelpern, G. Gulati, Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Standard contract terms are “sticky”: they rarely change, even if change appears to be in the parties’ interest. Multiple theories to explain stickiness do not reach consensus on its causes. We investigate the role of stickiness in sovereign bond contracts, where it would be especially costly and therefore puzzling. In our interviews with more than a hundred officials responsible for the bond contracts of 28 countries, they linked reluctance to change non-financial contract terms and the imperative of following a “market standard” for such terms. When a term could be described as standard for the government’s debt stock or borrower cohort, its content often came across as secondary. Sovereign debt managers seemed willing to forgo some of the benefits of contract terms for dealing with contingencies and revealing private information, to avoid negative signals and maintain the liquidity of primary and secondary debt markets. Interviews with investors suggested a similar focus on standard form, and a limited engagement with contract content.
标准合同条款是“粘性的”:它们很少改变,即使改变看起来符合双方的利益。解释粘性的多种理论对其原因没有达成共识。我们研究了粘性在主权债券合约中的作用,在主权债券合约中,粘性的成本特别高,因此令人困惑。在我们对100多位负责28个国家债券合同的官员的采访中,他们将不愿改变非金融合同条款与遵循此类条款的“市场标准”的必要性联系起来。当一个术语可以被描述为政府债务存量或借款人群体的标准时,其内容往往被认为是次要的。主权债务管理公司似乎愿意放弃合同条款在处理突发事件和披露私人信息方面的一些好处,以避免负面信号,并维持一级和二级债务市场的流动性。对投资者的采访表明,他们同样关注标准形式,并对合同内容进行有限的接触。
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引用次数: 8
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Financial Crises eJournal
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