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Predictable Financial Crises 可预见的金融危机
Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.3386/w27396
R. Greenwood, S. Hanson, A. Shleifer, J. Sørensen
Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is associated with about a 40% probability of entering a financial crisis within the next three years. This compares with a roughly 7% probability in normal times, when neither credit nor asset price growth has been elevated. Our evidence cuts against the view that financial crises are unpredictable “bolts from the sky” and points toward the Kindleberger-Minsky view that crises are the byproduct of predictable, boom-bust credit cycles. The predictability we document favors macro-financial policies that “lean against the wind” of credit market booms. Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.
利用战后世界各地金融危机的历史数据,我们表明危机基本上是可以预测的。过去三年信贷和资产价格的快速增长,无论是非金融企业还是家庭部门,都与未来三年内进入金融危机的可能性约为40%有关。相比之下,在信贷和资产价格增长都没有提高的正常时期,这种可能性约为7%。我们的证据反驳了金融危机是不可预测的“从天而降”的观点,并指向金德尔伯格-明斯基的观点,即危机是可预测的繁荣-萧条信贷周期的副产品。我们记录的可预测性有利于在信贷市场繁荣时“逆风而行”的宏观金融政策。国家经济研究局工作论文系列的机构订阅者和发展中国家的居民可以在www.nber.org免费下载本文。
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引用次数: 81
The Distributional Impact of Recessions: The Global Financial Crisis and the Pandemic Recession 衰退的分配影响:全球金融危机和大范围衰退
Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513546759.001
Ippei Shibata
Using the U.S. Current Population Survey data, this paper compares the distributional impacts of the Pandemic Crisis and those of the Global Financial Crisis in terms of (i) worker characteristics, (ii) job characteristics–“social” (where individuals interact to consume goods), “teleworkable” (where individuals have the option of working at home), and “essential” jobs (which were not subject to government mandated shut-downs during the recent recession), and (iii) wage distributions. We find that young and less educated workers have always been affected more in recessions, while women and Hispanics were more severely affected during the Pandemic Recession. Surprisingly, teleworkable, social and essential jobs have been historically less cyclical. This historical acyclicality of teleworkable occupations is attributable to its higher share of skilled workers. Unlike during the Global Financial Crisis, however, employment in social industries fell more whereas employment in teleworkable and essential jobs fell less during the Pandemic Crisis. Lastly, during both recessions, workers at low-income earnings have suffered more than top-income earners, suggesting a significant distributional impact of the two recessions.
本文利用美国当前人口调查数据,从以下方面比较了大流行危机和全球金融危机的分布影响:(i)工人特征,(ii)工作特征——“社交”(个人互动消费商品),“远程工作”(个人可以选择在家工作)和“必要”工作(在最近的经济衰退期间不受政府强制关闭的影响),以及(iii)工资分布。我们发现,年轻和受教育程度较低的工人在经济衰退中受到的影响总是更大,而妇女和西班牙裔在大流行经济衰退期间受到的影响更严重。令人惊讶的是,从历史上看,远程工作、社交工作和必要工作的周期性较低。远程工作的这种历史非周期性可归因于其较高的熟练工人份额。然而,与全球金融危机期间不同的是,在大流行危机期间,社会行业的就业下降幅度更大,而远程工作和基本工作的就业下降幅度较小。最后,在两次经济衰退中,低收入工人比高收入者遭受的损失更大,这表明两次经济衰退对分配产生了重大影响。
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引用次数: 29
Measuring the Impact of a Failing Participant in Payment Systems 衡量支付系统中失败参与者的影响
Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513545080.001
Ronald Heijmans, Froukelien Wendt
Banks and financial market infrastructures (FMIs) that are not able to fulfill their paymentobligations can be a source of financial instability. This paper develops a composite risk indicator toevaluate the criticality of participants in a large value payment system network, combiningliquidity risk and interconnections in one approach, and applying this to the TARGET2payment system. Findings suggest that the most critical participants in TARGET2 are otherpayment systems, because of the size of underlying payment flows. Some banks may becritical, but this is mainly due to their interconnectedness with other TARGET2 participants.Central counterparties and central securities depositories are less critical. These findings can beused in financial stability analysis, and feed into central bank policies on payment system access,oversight, and crisis management.
不能履行其支付义务的银行和金融市场基础设施(FMIs)可能是金融不稳定的一个来源。本文提出了一种综合风险指标来评估大金额支付系统网络中参与者的临界性,将流动性风险和互联性结合在一起,并将其应用于target2支付系统。研究结果表明,TARGET2中最关键的参与者是其他支付系统,因为潜在支付流的规模。一些银行可能会提出批评,但这主要是由于它们与TARGET2其他参与者的相互联系。中央对手方和中央证券存管机构则不那么重要。这些发现可以用于金融稳定性分析,并为中央银行关于支付系统访问、监督和危机管理的政策提供依据。
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引用次数: 3
Business Cycle Modeling Between Financial Crises and Black Swans: Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Stochastic Process versus Kaldor Deterministic Chaotic Model 金融危机与黑天鹅之间的商业周期建模:Ornstein-Uhlenbeck随机过程与Kaldor确定性混沌模型
Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3851308
G. Orlando, G. Zimatore
Business cycles are oscillations in the economy because of recessions and expansions. In this paper we investigate the oscillation of the gross domestic product as a result of its relations with the other main macroeconomic variables such as capital, consumption, and investment. There is a long-standing debate about chaos and non-linear dynamics in economy and even the usefulness of those concepts has been questioned. Stochastic modeling has proven to be able to simulate reality fairly well. However, a stochastic behavior implies that reality is about exogenous randomness, while a chaotic behavior means that reality is deterministic and non-linearities are endogenous. Here we compare an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck stochastic process with a Kaldor-Kalecki deterministic chaotic model to understand which one fits better real data. We show that our chaotic model is able to represent reality as well as the stochastic model taken into consideration. Furthermore, our model may reproduce an extreme event (black swans).
商业周期是由经济衰退和扩张引起的经济波动。在本文中,我们研究了国内生产总值与其他主要宏观经济变量(如资本、消费和投资)的关系所产生的振荡。关于经济中的混沌和非线性动力学的争论由来已久,甚至这些概念的实用性也受到质疑。随机建模已被证明能够很好地模拟现实。然而,随机行为意味着现实是外生随机性,而混沌行为意味着现实是确定性的,非线性是内生的。在这里,我们将Ornstein-Uhlenbeck随机过程与Kaldor-Kalecki确定性混沌模型进行比较,以了解哪种模型更适合实际数据。结果表明,混沌模型既能反映实际情况,又能反映随机模型。此外,我们的模型可能重现一个极端事件(黑天鹅事件)。
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引用次数: 2
Bank Heterogeneity and Financial Stability 银行异质性与金融稳定性
Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3683725
Itay Goldstein, A. Kopytov, Lin Shen, Haotian Xiang
We study how heterogeneity in banks’ asset holdings affects fragility. In the model, banks face a risk of bank runs and have to liquidate long-term assets in a common market to repay runners. Liquidation prices are depressed when many banks sell their assets at the same time. When banks are homogeneous, their selling behaviors are synchronized, and bank runs are exacerbated. We show that differentiating banks to some extent enhances the stability of all banks, even those whose asset performance ends up being weaker. Our analyses provide new insights about the regulation of banking sector’s architecture and the design of government support during crises.
我们研究了银行资产持有的异质性如何影响脆弱性。在该模型中,银行面临挤兑的风险,必须在共同市场上清算长期资产,以偿还挤兑者。当许多银行同时出售其资产时,清算价格就会下降。当银行同质化时,它们的抛售行为是同步的,银行挤兑就会加剧。我们的研究表明,区分银行在一定程度上增强了所有银行的稳定性,即使是那些资产绩效最终较弱的银行。我们的分析为银行业结构的监管和危机期间政府支持的设计提供了新的见解。
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引用次数: 18
Financial Analysis of Al Marai Company Al Marai公司的财务分析
Pub Date : 2020-05-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3594800
Wadima Al Mheiri, Maha Al-Mahmoud, F. Sultan, F. Jumà, Meera Al-Kaabi, H. Al-Alawi, Haitham Nobanee
Al Marai is a Saudi Arab based company that deals in food with its headquarters in Riyadh. This company was centralized with the sole aim of making its products high quality and of improved standard. The mission of Almarai is to provide quality and nutritious food that benefits the lives of consumers. It is the vision of Al Mari to become the first choice of consumers in the market of food and beverage products. The company gradually improved its finances and increased its market value. As a result, the shareholders increased to a high amount of 50 thousand shareholders for Almarai. Al Mari depends more on its inventories to meet the current obligations. Almarai is always at the risk of financial fluctuation because of its market competitors which can only be solved by increasing market shares of the company. The overall performance of Almarai is satisfactory but improvement is required to deal with the competitors.
Al Marai是一家总部位于沙特阿拉伯的食品公司,总部设在利雅得。这家公司集中经营的唯一目的是提高产品的质量和标准。Almarai的使命是提供优质和营养的食品,使消费者的生活受益。成为消费者在食品和饮料产品市场上的首选是Al Mari的愿景。公司逐渐改善了财务状况,增加了市场价值。因此,Almarai的股东数量增加到5万名。Al Mari更多地依靠其库存来履行目前的义务。由于市场竞争对手的存在,Almarai一直面临着财务波动的风险,只有通过增加公司的市场份额才能解决这个问题。Almarai的整体性能令人满意,但需要改进以应对竞争对手。
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引用次数: 0
A Stylized Model of the Oil Squeeze 石油挤压的程式化模型
Pub Date : 2020-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3781158
Ilia Bouchouev
The paper proposes a practical alternative to a traditional theory of storage, which is difficult to apply to oil markets due to structural differences, such as low-price elasticities of demand and supply, and the dominant role of oil as an investment asset. We model futures time spreads as a derivative of the observable state variable, oil inventories. Inventories, normalized by the storage capacity, are assumed to follow a mean-reverting stochastic process. The boundary condition at the futures expiry is specified by a pair of Dirac delta functions which correspond to the events of default by the futures trader when either oil inventory or the storage capacity are no longer available. The model is calibrated to data for Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery location for WTI futures, and is used to analyze the market dynamics that led to negative oil prices. We argue that while the limitation of storage capacity was the initial catalyst leading to the event, the actual episode of negative prices was the result of the financial squeeze in the futures market.
本文提出了一种替代传统储存理论的实用方法。由于结构性差异,例如需求和供应的价格弹性较低,以及石油作为一种投资资产的主导地位,传统储存理论难以适用于石油市场。我们将期货时间价差建模为可观测状态变量石油库存的导数。假定库存按存储容量归一化,遵循均值回归的随机过程。期货到期时的边界条件由一对狄拉克函数指定,该函数对应于期货交易者在石油库存或存储能力不再可用时的违约事件。该模型是根据WTI期货交割地俄克拉荷马州库欣的数据进行校准的,并用于分析导致油价下跌的市场动态。我们认为,虽然存储容量的限制是导致这一事件的最初催化剂,但实际的负价格事件是期货市场金融紧缩的结果。
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引用次数: 0
Time-Varying General Dynamic Factor Models and the Measurement of Financial Connectedness 时变一般动态因子模型与金融连通性测度
Pub Date : 2020-04-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3329445
M. Barigozzi, M. Hallin, Stefano Soccorsi, R. von Sachs
Ripple effects in financial markets associated with crashes, systemic risk and contagion are characterized by non-trivial lead-lag dynamics which is crucial for understanding how crises spread and, therefore, central in risk management. In the spirit of Diebold and Yilmaz (2014), we investigate connectedness among financial firms via an analysis of impulse response functions of adjusted intraday log-ranges to market shocks involving network theory methods. Motivated by overwhelming evidence that the interdependence structure of financial markets is varying over time, we are basing that analysis on the so-called time-varying General Dynamic Factor Model proposed by Eichler et al. (2011), which extends to the locally stationary context the framework developed by Forni et al. (2000) under stationarity assumptions. The estimation methods in Eichler et al. (2011), however, present the major drawback of involving two-sided filters which make it impossible to recover impulse response functions. We therefore introduce a novel approach extending to the time-varying context the one-sided method of Forni et al. (2017). The resulting estimators of time-varying impulse response functions are shown to be consistent, hence can be used in the analysis of (time-varying) connectedness. Our empirical analysis on a large and strongly comoving panel of intraday price ranges of US stocks indicates that large increases in mid to long-run connectedness are associated with the main financial turmoils.
与崩溃、系统性风险和传染相关的金融市场的连锁反应具有重要的领先-滞后动态特征,这对于理解危机如何传播至关重要,因此是风险管理的核心。本着Diebold和Yilmaz(2014)的精神,我们通过分析涉及网络理论方法的调整后的日内对数范围对市场冲击的脉冲响应函数来研究金融公司之间的连通性。有大量证据表明,金融市场的相互依赖结构随着时间的推移而变化,因此我们基于Eichler等人(2011)提出的所谓的时变通用动态因素模型进行分析,该模型将Forni等人(2000)在平稳性假设下开发的框架扩展到局部平稳的背景下。然而,Eichler等人(2011)的估计方法存在涉及双面滤波器的主要缺点,这使得无法恢复脉冲响应函数。因此,我们引入了一种新的方法,将其扩展到时变背景下,即Forni等人(2017)的片面方法。结果表明,时变脉冲响应函数的估计量是一致的,因此可以用于(时变)连通性的分析。我们对美国股票日内价格区间的一个大型且变动剧烈的面板进行的实证分析表明,中长期连通性的大幅增加与主要的金融动荡有关。
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引用次数: 34
Estimating the Value of Statistical Life (VSL) Losses from COVID-19 Infections in the United States 估算美国COVID-19感染造成的统计寿命(VSL)损失价值
Pub Date : 2020-04-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3580414
Linus Wilson
Americans aged sixty or older stand to lose 153 to 222 days of life expectancy from contracting COVID-19. Over 90 percent of the U.S. population was under stay at home orders by April 2020. These social distancing measures to slow the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 or novel coronavirus have led to over 20 million new applications for unemployment benefits. Are these economic losses justified? We find the value of statistical lives lost (VSL) from an unconstrained spread of the virus which hypothetically infected 81 percent of the population would amount to $8 to $60 trillion.
60岁及以上的美国人因感染COVID-19将损失153至222天的预期寿命。到2020年4月,超过90%的美国人口被要求呆在家里。这些旨在减缓SARS-CoV-2或新型冠状病毒传播的社会距离措施已导致2000多万人新申请失业救济。这些经济损失合理吗?我们发现,假设感染81%人口的病毒不受限制的传播所造成的统计生命损失(VSL)的价值将达到8至60万亿美元。
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引用次数: 3
Bond Mutual Fund Flows, Fund Liquidity, and Broker-Dealer Inventories 债券共同基金流量,基金流动性和经纪自营商库存
Pub Date : 2020-04-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3623218
M. Flannery
Some financial supervisors worry that liquidity transformation within the “shadow banking” sector might threaten financial stability. For example, a mutual fund promising overnight liquidity based on illiquid assets (such as corporate bonds) runs the risk of needing to “fire sale” some assets, with potentially deleterious external effects. One protection against this possibility would be a broker-dealer sector that stands ready to stabilize prices by buying (or selling) for its own inventory. I evaluate the extent to which bond mutual funds’ flows are reflected in broker-dealers’ inventories. Although brokers generally trade in the same direction as the mutual funds, high-yield corporate bonds present an exception. Flows out of high-yield bond funds are associated with a significant increase in dealers’ high-yield bond inventories. These results provide further information about how various types of bond mutual funds handle liquidity demands.
一些金融监管机构担心,“影子银行”部门的流动性转变可能会威胁到金融稳定。例如,一个承诺以非流动性资产(如公司债券)为基础的隔夜流动性的共同基金,有可能需要“贱卖”一些资产,从而产生潜在的有害外部影响。针对这种可能性的一种保护措施是,经纪自营商部门随时准备通过买入(或卖出)自己的库存来稳定价格。我评估债券共同基金的资金流动在多大程度上反映在经纪交易商的库存中。尽管券商的交易方向通常与共同基金相同,但高收益公司债券是个例外。高收益债券基金的流出与交易商高收益债券库存的显著增加有关。这些结果提供了关于不同类型的债券共同基金如何处理流动性需求的进一步信息。
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引用次数: 0
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Financial Crises eJournal
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