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Untying Interconnectedness: Topology, Stability and the Post-crisis Reforms 解除互联性:拓扑结构、稳定性和危机后改革
Pub Date : 2020-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3565870
Dermot Turing
‘Interconnectedness’ was considered to be a cause of the 2008 financial crisis, stimulating a number of studies into the topology of financial markets. Yet the analysis of instability within networks has tended to focus on a type of ‘contagion’ which imagines serial insolvencies, with non-performance of due obligations causing solvency issues for connected institutions. A more realistic assessment of the 2008 crisis was that it was due to a drying-up of available cash. A taxonomy of contagion is proposed, and the illiquidity model of contagion is then analyzed with reference to the observed core-periphery structure of financial market networks. Finally, the post-crisis reforms are judged against the view of ‘interconnectedness’ which emerges.
“互联性”被认为是2008年金融危机的一个原因,激发了对金融市场拓扑结构的大量研究。然而,对网络内部不稳定性的分析往往集中在一种“传染”上,这种传染想象了一系列破产,不履行到期义务导致相关机构的偿付能力问题。对2008年危机的一个更现实的评估是,它是由于可用现金的枯竭。提出了传染的分类,并结合观察到的金融市场网络的核心-外围结构,分析了传染的非流动性模型。最后,危机后的改革是根据“相互联系”的观点来判断的。
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引用次数: 0
Media Tone Goes Viral: Global Evidence from the Currency Market 媒体言论传播:全球货币市场证据
Pub Date : 2020-03-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3560587
Heikki Lehkonen, Kari Heimonen, Kuntara Pukthuanthong
Using several million news and social media articles related to currencies, we examine the role of media tone in predicting the exchange rate returns of 12 developed and 24 emerging markets from 1998 to 2016. The text-based currency Media tone is a strong positive predictor of currency excess returns beyond fundamentals of one to three months ahead and six months cumulatively, with the average in-sample and out-of-sample R^2s of 4.45% and 9.03% in the US. The one-month predictability is observed in four other developed markets and 18 emerging market currencies, with the latter showing a stronger pattern. This predictability encompasses previous month currency returns, currency factors, macro fundamentals, and market sentiment and is stronger for currencies that are freely floating, less liquid, difficult to value, costly to arbitrage, and which have high interest rates. The effect is channeled through expectation errors and driven by the forecasting component rather than risk. The predictability of Media tone is driven by non-mainstream financial media.
利用数百万篇与货币相关的新闻和社交媒体文章,我们研究了媒体语气在预测1998年至2016年12个发达市场和24个新兴市场汇率回报中的作用。基于文本的货币媒体基调是一个强有力的积极预测因素,可以预测未来一到三个月和六个月累计的货币超额回报,在美国,样本内和样本外的平均R^2s分别为4.45%和9.03%。另外4个发达市场货币和18种新兴市场货币的一个月可预测性也得到了观察,其中新兴市场货币表现出更强的模式。这种可预测性包括上个月的货币回报、货币因素、宏观基本面和市场情绪,对于那些自由浮动、流动性较低、难以估值、套利成本高、利率高的货币来说,这种可预测性更强。这种影响是通过预期误差引导的,并且是由预测成分而不是风险驱动的。媒体语气的可预测性是由非主流财经媒体驱动的。
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引用次数: 0
Is Downside Risk Priced in Cryptocurrency Market 加密货币市场有下行风险吗
Pub Date : 2020-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3623359
V. Dobrynskaya
I look at the cryptocurrency market through the prism of standard multi-factor asset-pricing models with particular attention to the downside market risk. The analysis for 1,700 coins reveals that there is a significant heterogeneity in the exposure to the downside market risk, and that a higher downside risk exposure is associated with higher average returns. The extra downside risk is priced with a statistically significant premium in cross-sectional regressions. Adding the downside risk component to the CAPM and the 3-factor model for cryptocurrencies improves the explanatory power of the models significantly. The downside risk is orthogonal to the size and momentum risks and constitutes an important forth component in the multi-factor cryptocurrency pricing model.
我通过标准的多因素资产定价模型来看待加密货币市场,特别关注市场下行风险。对1700个硬币的分析表明,在下行市场风险暴露方面存在显著的异质性,并且较高的下行风险暴露与较高的平均回报相关。在横断面回归中,额外的下行风险以统计上显著的溢价定价。将下行风险成分添加到CAPM和加密货币的三因素模型中,可以显着提高模型的解释力。下行风险与规模和动量风险正交,构成了多因素加密货币定价模型的重要组成部分。
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引用次数: 5
Macroprudential Policy Research in 2019: Working Papers Review 2019年宏观审慎政策研究:工作综述
Pub Date : 2020-02-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3776606
M. Sakovich
The financial crisis of 2008-2009 demonstrated the need for a comprehensive approach to risk management of financial institutions and financial area as a whole. Since then, a large number of macroprudential policy studies are published each year. In this paper we provide an overview of the main findings of 19 research papers in 2019. This allows us to draw conclusions about the main directions of current studies and to outline directions for future research.
2008-2009年的金融危机表明,需要对金融机构和整个金融领域采取全面的风险管理方法。此后,每年都会发表大量的宏观审慎政策研究。本文对2019年19篇研究论文的主要发现进行了概述。这使我们能够总结当前研究的主要方向,并概述未来的研究方向。
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引用次数: 0
Water in the Wine? Monetary Policy and the Impact of Non-bank Financial Intermediaries 酒里有水?货币政策与非银行金融中介机构的影响
Pub Date : 2020-02-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3534297
Jeremy M. Kronick, Yan Wendy Wu
Canada was lauded for surviving the 2007-08 global financial crisis relatively unscathed. In part, this was due to the success of our financial services sector. This resilience, especially in contrast to the US banking sector, is partly explained by the smaller size of the non-bank financial intermediation (NBFI) sector in Canada – more popularly known as “shadow banking.” But signs of robust growth in Canada’s NBFI sector after the crisis suggest this resilience might be under threat. The assets of those institutions engaged in non-bank financial intermediation have continued to grow in Canada since the global financial crisis, and now account for a larger share of total financial assets than prior to the crisis. A more important NBFI sector has multiple effects on the financial system and on the economy. On the one hand, intermediaries in the sector, or NBFIs, provide alternatives for both depositors and borrowers that improve the functioning of the economy by increasing competition. On the other hand, they also might increase vulnerabilities, since they are often not as closely regulated, and deposit insurance does not cover their liabilities. We find that, as NBFI deposit growth increases in importance, it can dilute the effectiveness of monetary policy. This drag might be the result of depositors shifting between NBFIs and traditional banks, an effect that is exacerbated as the NBFI sector grows. We also find that contractionary monetary policy causes an increase in business credit growth for NBFIs and a fall in chartered bank business loan growth. Although the overall effect on business credit growth is the desired decrease, the increase in NBFI business loans both decreases monetary policy effectiveness and results in a riskier composition. Lastly, we find the insignificant effect on overall mortgage credit growth following a contractionary monetary policy shock appears to be driven by a shift of credit from traditional banks to NBFIs, and could be a concern from a financial stability perspective. Overall, these results highlight the importance of a growing NBFI sector for monetary policy and financial stability. Our findings suggest that both the traditional monetary policy tool of the overnight rate and tightening mortgage underwriting standards through macroprudential policy might have the unintended side effect of increasing financial instability. One way to reduce this potential side effect is to limit the migration of loans between traditional banks and NBFIs by tightening regulation of NBFIs to level the playing field between the two types of financial institutions. At a minimum, the systemically important NBFIs should face capital requirements and underwriting standards similar to those imposed on traditional banks. We hope these results help the Bank of Canada as it continues to evaluate and model the evolution of monetary policy transmission in the Canadian economy. To that end, NBFIs should be front and centre when the four coor
加拿大因在2007-08年全球金融危机中相对毫发无损而受到称赞。在某种程度上,这要归功于我们金融服务业的成功。这种弹性,特别是与美国银行业相比,部分原因是加拿大的非银行金融中介(NBFI)部门规模较小,更广为人知的是“影子银行”。但危机后加拿大NBFI行业强劲增长的迹象表明,这种韧性可能受到威胁。自全球金融危机以来,加拿大从事非银行金融中介的机构的资产持续增长,现在占总金融资产的份额比危机前更大。更重要的是,NBFI部门对金融体系和经济有多重影响。一方面,该行业的中介机构(nbfi)为存款人和借款人提供了另一种选择,通过增加竞争来改善经济运行。另一方面,它们也可能增加脆弱性,因为它们往往没有受到严格监管,存款保险也不涵盖它们的负债。我们发现,随着NBFI存款增长的重要性增加,它可以稀释货币政策的有效性。这种拖累可能是存款人在NBFI和传统银行之间转移的结果,这种影响随着NBFI行业的发展而加剧。我们还发现,紧缩的货币政策导致非银行金融机构的商业信贷增长增加,特许银行的商业贷款增长下降。尽管对商业信贷增长的总体影响是预期的减少,但NBFI商业贷款的增加既降低了货币政策的有效性,又导致了风险更大的构成。最后,我们发现紧缩性货币政策冲击对整体抵押贷款信贷增长的影响微不足道,这似乎是由信贷从传统银行转向非银行金融机构所驱动的,从金融稳定的角度来看,这可能是一个值得关注的问题。总的来说,这些结果突出了不断增长的NBFI部门对货币政策和金融稳定的重要性。我们的研究结果表明,隔夜利率这一传统货币政策工具和通过宏观审慎政策收紧抵押贷款承销标准都可能产生意想不到的副作用,即增加金融不稳定性。减少这种潜在副作用的一种方法是,通过加强对非银行金融机构的监管,限制传统银行和非银行金融机构之间的贷款流动,从而在两类金融机构之间创造公平的竞争环境。至少,具有系统重要性的非银行金融机构应面临与传统银行类似的资本要求和承销标准。我们希望这些结果有助于加拿大央行继续评估和模拟加拿大经济中货币政策传导的演变。为此目的,在提供系统性金融服务监管的四个协调机构下次开会时,非银行金融机构应该是最重要的。
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引用次数: 0
The Causality between Financial Instability and Monetary Policy Uncertainty: Who Predicts Whom? 金融不稳定与货币政策不确定性之间的因果关系:谁预测谁?
Pub Date : 2020-01-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3523400
Meng Yan
By employing the bootstrap full-sample Granger causality test and sub-sample rolling window causality test, this paper attempts to disentangle the causal nexus between financial instability and monetary policy uncertainty in the US, Japan, and Greece. The bootstrap full sample causality test reveals that there is unidirectional causality from monetary policy uncertainty to financial instability in the US, while there exists the reverse channel in Japan and Greece. Nonparametric Granger causality test further demonstrates that there is no causal relationship in each country, indicating the potential time-varying relationship between two variables. To allow the dynamic relationship between them, we use the bootstrap sub-sample rolling window Granger causality test and conclude that there are bidirectional causal relationships between financial instability and monetary policy uncertainty in specific subperiods for all three countries, such as during regional and global crisis. Overall, this paper helps us better understand the intricate mechanisms between financial instability and monetary policy uncertainty from the predictive perspective.
本文采用自举全样本格兰杰因果检验和子样本滚动窗因果检验,试图厘清美国、日本和希腊金融不稳定与货币政策不确定性之间的因果关系。自举全样本因果检验表明,美国货币政策不确定性与金融不稳定之间存在单向因果关系,而日本和希腊存在反向因果关系。非参数格兰杰因果检验进一步表明,在每个国家都不存在因果关系,表明两个变量之间存在潜在的时变关系。为了允许它们之间的动态关系,我们使用自举子样本滚动窗口格兰杰因果检验,并得出结论,在所有三个国家的特定子时期,金融不稳定性和货币政策不确定性之间存在双向因果关系,例如在区域和全球危机期间。总体而言,本文有助于我们从预测的角度更好地理解金融不稳定与货币政策不确定性之间的复杂机制。
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引用次数: 0
Bond Losses and Systemic Risk 债券损失与系统性风险
Pub Date : 2020-01-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3512531
Klenio Barbosa, Dakshina G. De Silva, Liyu Yang, Hisayuki Yoshimoto
This paper documents the existence of primary dealers' losses in Treasury bond markets and investigates how these losses affect dealers' market value. Using a novel data set that tracks more than 2,350 primary-to-secondary transactions, we find that bond losses for primary dealers are prevalent and were severe during the financial crisis. Our results indicate that liquidity constraints are a major source of bond losses observed in primary-to-secondary trades. We also find that financial sector value is correlated with these losses. Using an alternating market experiment, we show that bond losses are higher under discriminatory auctions as compared to uniform auctions.
本文证明了一级交易商在国债市场上的损失,并探讨了这些损失如何影响交易商的市场价值。通过追踪超过2350笔一级到二级交易的新数据集,我们发现一级交易商的债券损失普遍存在,而且在金融危机期间非常严重。我们的研究结果表明,流动性约束是一级到二级交易中观察到的债券损失的主要来源。我们还发现,金融部门的价值与这些损失相关。使用交替市场实验,我们表明,与统一拍卖相比,在歧视性拍卖下债券损失更高。
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引用次数: 1
Countercyclical Bank Equity Issuance 逆周期银行股票发行
Pub Date : 2020-01-13 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2902505
Matthew Baron
Over the period 1980–2012, large U.S. commercial banks raise and retain less equity during credit expansions, which amplifies their leverage. The decrease in equity issuance is large relative to subsequent banking losses. I consider a variety of explanations for why banks resist raising equity and find evidence consistent with the diminishment of creditor market discipline due to government guarantees. I test this explanation by analyzing the removal of government guarantees to German Landesbank creditors and find that creditor market discipline and equity issuance increase. These findings help explain why banks resist raising equity, making financial distress more likely. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.
1980年至2012年期间,美国大型商业银行在信贷扩张期间筹集和保留的股本较少,这放大了它们的杠杆率。相对于随后的银行损失,股票发行的减少幅度很大。我考虑了银行为何拒绝增加股本的各种解释,并找到了与政府担保导致债权人市场纪律减弱相一致的证据。我通过分析政府取消对德国州立银行债权人的担保来检验这一解释,发现债权人市场纪律和股票发行增加了。这些发现有助于解释为什么银行拒绝增加股本,从而更有可能陷入财务困境。作者们提供了一份互联网附录,可以在牛津大学出版社的网站上找到,就在最终发表论文的链接旁边。
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引用次数: 47
Information Networks in the Financial Sector and Systemic Risk 金融部门信息网络与系统性风险
Pub Date : 2020-01-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3516784
Paul Borochin, Stephen Rush
We create and test two novel network-based measures of interconnectedness in the financial industry during 1996 to 2013. A network based on informed trading in financial firms predicts firm-specific risk and performance, while one formed on financial firm returns predicts future macroeconomic risk. The measure of informed trading is robust to variable order arrival rates more common in modern algorithmic trading. A trading strategy based on informed trading network centrality in the financial sector delivers an annualized risk-adjusted return of 7.73%. This risk-adjusted return shows that the network centrality has an economic impact that is relevant beyond the statistical results of the paper.
我们在1996年至2013年期间创建并测试了两种基于网络的金融行业互联性的新措施。基于金融公司知情交易的网络可以预测公司特有的风险和业绩,而基于金融公司回报形成的网络可以预测未来的宏观经济风险。知情交易的度量对现代算法交易中更常见的可变订单到达率具有鲁棒性。在金融领域,基于知情交易网络中心的交易策略提供了7.73%的年化风险调整回报率。这种风险调整后的回报表明,网络中心性具有相关的经济影响,超出了本文的统计结果。
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引用次数: 2
Disastrous Defaults 灾难性的违约
Pub Date : 2020-01-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3188085
C. Gouriéroux, A. Monfort, Sarah Mouabbi, Jean-Paul Renne
We define a disastrous default as the default of a systemic entity. Such an event is expected to have a negative effect on the economy and to be contagious. Bringing macroeconomic structure to a no-arbitrage asset-pricing framework, we exploit prices of disaster-exposed assets (credit and equity derivatives) to extract information on (i) the expected influence of a disastrous default on consumption and (ii) the probability of a financial meltdown. Using European data, we find that the returns of disaster-exposed assets are consistent with a systemic default being followed by a 2% decrease in consumption. The recessionary influence of disastrous defaults implies that financial instruments whose payoffs are exposed to such credit events carry substantial risk premiums. We also produce systemic risk indicators based on the probability of observing a certain number of systemic defaults or a sharp drop of consumption.
我们将灾难性违约定义为系统性实体的违约。预计这一事件将对经济产生负面影响,并具有传染性。将宏观经济结构引入无套利资产定价框架,我们利用灾难资产(信贷和股票衍生品)的价格来提取有关(i)灾难性违约对消费的预期影响以及(ii)金融崩溃的可能性的信息。利用欧洲的数据,我们发现,受灾害影响的资产的回报与系统性违约之后消费下降2%的情况是一致的。灾难性违约的衰退影响意味着,其收益暴露于此类信用事件的金融工具具有可观的风险溢价。我们还根据观察到一定数量的系统性违约或消费急剧下降的可能性,制定了系统性风险指标。
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引用次数: 5
期刊
Financial Crises eJournal
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