Pub Date : 2020-10-23DOI: 10.1002/9781119548164.ch12
S. McGregor, M. Khodri, N. Maher, M. Ohba, F. Pausata, S. Stevenson
{"title":"The Effect of Strong Volcanic Eruptions on ENSO","authors":"S. McGregor, M. Khodri, N. Maher, M. Ohba, F. Pausata, S. Stevenson","doi":"10.1002/9781119548164.ch12","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119548164.ch12","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":12539,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical monograph","volume":"122 1","pages":"267-287"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77929934","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-10-23DOI: 10.1002/9781119548164.ch5
J. Emile‐Geay, K. Cobb, J. Cole, M. Elliot, Feng Zhu
{"title":"Past ENSO Variability","authors":"J. Emile‐Geay, K. Cobb, J. Cole, M. Elliot, Feng Zhu","doi":"10.1002/9781119548164.ch5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119548164.ch5","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":12539,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical monograph","volume":"10 1","pages":"87-118"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78082924","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-10-23DOI: 10.1002/9781119548164.ch7
S. An, E. Tziperman, Y. Okumura, Tim Li
{"title":"ENSO Irregularity and Asymmetry","authors":"S. An, E. Tziperman, Y. Okumura, Tim Li","doi":"10.1002/9781119548164.ch7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119548164.ch7","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":12539,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical monograph","volume":"55 1","pages":"153-172"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90829686","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-10-23DOI: 10.1002/9781119548164.ch2
K. Trenberth
{"title":"ENSO in the Global Climate System","authors":"K. Trenberth","doi":"10.1002/9781119548164.ch2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119548164.ch2","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":12539,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical monograph","volume":"1 1","pages":"21-37"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84721640","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-10-23DOI: 10.1002/9781119548164.ch21
C. Karamperidou, M. Stuecker, A. Timmermann, K. Yun, Sun‐Seon Lee, F. Jin, A. Santoso, M. Mcphaden, W. Cai
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is a naturally occurring climate fluctuation, which originates in the tropical Pacific region and affects ecosystems, agriculture, freshwater supplies, hurricanes and other severe weather events worldwide (Goddard and Dilley 2005; McPhaden et al. 2006). Despite considerable progress in our understanding of the impact of climate change on many of the processes that contribute to ENSO variability (e.g., Collins et al. 2010), it is not yet possible to say whether ENSO activity will be enhanced or damped, or if the frequency or character of events will change in the coming decades (Vecchi and Wittenberg 2010). As changes in ENSO have the potential to be one of the largest manifestations of anthropogenic climate change, this status has profound impacts on the reliability of regional attribution of climate variability and change. Two main reasons can be invoked for these shortcomings. First there is a lack of long and comprehensive enough observations of the various ENSO processes to be able to detect past changes. It may be that we need to observe ENSO for another several decades to detect and attribute significant ENSO changes (Wittenberg 2009; Stevenson et al. 2012). Second, as ENSO involves a complex interplay of numerous ocean and atmospheric processes, accurately modeling this climate phenomenon with CGCMs, and understanding, anticipating, and predicting its behaviour on seasonal to decadal and longer time scales still pose formidable challenges (Guilyardi et al. 2009). Even though the ability of CGCMs to simulate El Niño has largely improved over the last few years, the diversity of model simulations of present-day El Niño characteristics indicate current limitations in our ability to model this climate phenomenon and anticipate changes in its properties on short and long time scales.
El Niño-Southern涛动(ENSO)现象是一种自然发生的气候波动，它起源于热带太平洋地区，影响全球的生态系统、农业、淡水供应、飓风和其他恶劣天气事件(Goddard and Dilley 2005;McPhaden et al. 2006)。尽管我们对气候变化对导致ENSO变率的许多过程的影响的理解取得了相当大的进展(例如，Collins等人，2010)，但尚无法确定ENSO活动是否会增强或减弱，或者未来几十年ENSO活动的频率或特征是否会发生变化(Vecchi和Wittenberg, 2010)。由于ENSO的变化有可能成为人为气候变化的最大表现之一，这种状态对气候变率和变化的区域归因的可靠性具有深远的影响。这些缺点有两个主要原因。首先，缺乏对各种ENSO过程的长期和全面的观测，无法探测到过去的变化。我们可能需要再观察ENSO几十年，以探测和归因于显著的ENSO变化(Wittenberg 2009;Stevenson et al. 2012)。其次，由于ENSO涉及许多海洋和大气过程的复杂相互作用，用cccms准确地模拟这种气候现象，并理解、预测和预测其在季节到十年和更长时间尺度上的行为仍然构成巨大的挑战(Guilyardi et al. 2009)。尽管在过去几年中，cccms模拟El Niño的能力有了很大的提高，但当前El Niño特征的模式模拟的多样性表明，我们目前在模拟这种气候现象和预测其短期和长期性质变化方面的能力存在局限性。
{"title":"ENSO in a Changing Climate","authors":"C. Karamperidou, M. Stuecker, A. Timmermann, K. Yun, Sun‐Seon Lee, F. Jin, A. Santoso, M. Mcphaden, W. Cai","doi":"10.1002/9781119548164.ch21","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119548164.ch21","url":null,"abstract":"The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is a naturally occurring climate fluctuation, which originates in the tropical Pacific region and affects ecosystems, agriculture, freshwater supplies, hurricanes and other severe weather events worldwide (Goddard and Dilley 2005; McPhaden et al. 2006). Despite considerable progress in our understanding of the impact of climate change on many of the processes that contribute to ENSO variability (e.g., Collins et al. 2010), it is not yet possible to say whether ENSO activity will be enhanced or damped, or if the frequency or character of events will change in the coming decades (Vecchi and Wittenberg 2010). As changes in ENSO have the potential to be one of the largest manifestations of anthropogenic climate change, this status has profound impacts on the reliability of regional attribution of climate variability and change. Two main reasons can be invoked for these shortcomings. First there is a lack of long and comprehensive enough observations of the various ENSO processes to be able to detect past changes. It may be that we need to observe ENSO for another several decades to detect and attribute significant ENSO changes (Wittenberg 2009; Stevenson et al. 2012). Second, as ENSO involves a complex interplay of numerous ocean and atmospheric processes, accurately modeling this climate phenomenon with CGCMs, and understanding, anticipating, and predicting its behaviour on seasonal to decadal and longer time scales still pose formidable challenges (Guilyardi et al. 2009). Even though the ability of CGCMs to simulate El Niño has largely improved over the last few years, the diversity of model simulations of present-day El Niño characteristics indicate current limitations in our ability to model this climate phenomenon and anticipate changes in its properties on short and long time scales.","PeriodicalId":12539,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical monograph","volume":"12 1","pages":"471-484"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82491908","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-10-23DOI: 10.1002/9781119548164.ch19
P. Lehodey, A. Bertrand, A. Hobday, H. Kiyofuji, S. McClatchie, C. Menkes, G. Pilling, J. Polovina, D. Tommasi
{"title":"ENSO Impact on Marine Fisheries and Ecosystems","authors":"P. Lehodey, A. Bertrand, A. Hobday, H. Kiyofuji, S. McClatchie, C. Menkes, G. Pilling, J. Polovina, D. Tommasi","doi":"10.1002/9781119548164.ch19","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119548164.ch19","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":12539,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical monograph","volume":"28 1","pages":"429-451"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74113177","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-10-23DOI: 10.1002/9781119548164.ch8
A. Fedorov, Shineng Hu, A. Wittenberg, Aaron Levine, C. Deser
Is El Niño changing with global warming? Can we anticipate decades with extreme El Niño events? To answer these questions confidently, we need to understand the modulation of the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO) that occur on decadal and multidecadal timescales and involve changes in El Niño amplitude, periodicity, dominant “flavors”, shifts in the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and other properties. As major progress has been made in understanding various factors that can affect these characteristics of El Niño, two main paradigms have emerged to explain the observed modulation of ENSO: (i) internally generated variations due to the chaotic nature of the ocean‐atmosphere coupled system and (ii) externally driven varia tions due to cyclic or secular changes in the properties of the tropical background state such as mean winds or ocean thermocline depth. This article reviews these two paradigms in the context of available observations, ide alized models, and comprehensive general circulation models describing El Niño. Which paradigm will domi nate in the coming decades and whether global warming is already affecting El Niño remains unclear. 1 Earth and Planetary Sciences, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA 2 LOCEAN/IPSL, Sorbonne University, Paris, France 3 Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA 4 NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA 5 Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA 6 NCAR, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Boulder, CO, USA 174 EL NIÑO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION IN A CHANGING CLIMATE
厄尔尼诺Niño是否随着全球变暖而变化?我们能预测未来几十年的极端厄尔尼诺Niño事件吗?为了自信地回答这些问题，我们需要了解El Niño南方涛动现象(ENSO)的调制，这种现象发生在年代际和多年代际的时间尺度上，涉及El Niño振幅、周期性、主导“风味”、热带辐合带的变化和其他特性。随着对影响El Niño这些特征的各种因素的理解取得重大进展，出现了两种主要范式来解释观测到的ENSO调制:(i)由于海洋-大气耦合系统的混沌性质而产生的内部变化和(ii)由于热带背景状态特性的周期性或长期变化(如平均风或海洋温跃层深度)而产生的外部驱动的变化。这篇文章回顾了这两个范例的背景下，可用的观测，ide化模型，和全面的环流模型描述El Niño。哪种模式将在未来几十年占据主导地位，以及全球变暖是否已经影响到厄尔尼诺Niño，目前仍不清楚。1美国康涅狄格州纽黑文耶鲁大学地球与行星科学2法国巴黎索邦大学loean /IPSL 3美国纽约州帕利塞兹哥伦比亚大学拉蒙特-多尔蒂地球观测站4美国新泽西州普林斯顿NOAA地球物理流体动力学实验室5美国华盛顿州西雅图华盛顿大学大气科学系6美国科罗拉多州博尔德NCAR气候与全球动力学部174 EL NIÑO气候变化中的南方涛动
{"title":"ENSO Low‐Frequency Modulation and Mean State Interactions","authors":"A. Fedorov, Shineng Hu, A. Wittenberg, Aaron Levine, C. Deser","doi":"10.1002/9781119548164.ch8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119548164.ch8","url":null,"abstract":"Is El Niño changing with global warming? Can we anticipate decades with extreme El Niño events? To answer these questions confidently, we need to understand the modulation of the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO) that occur on decadal and multidecadal timescales and involve changes in El Niño amplitude, periodicity, dominant “flavors”, shifts in the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and other properties. As major progress has been made in understanding various factors that can affect these characteristics of El Niño, two main paradigms have emerged to explain the observed modulation of ENSO: (i) internally generated variations due to the chaotic nature of the ocean‐atmosphere coupled system and (ii) externally driven varia tions due to cyclic or secular changes in the properties of the tropical background state such as mean winds or ocean thermocline depth. This article reviews these two paradigms in the context of available observations, ide alized models, and comprehensive general circulation models describing El Niño. Which paradigm will domi nate in the coming decades and whether global warming is already affecting El Niño remains unclear. 1 Earth and Planetary Sciences, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA 2 LOCEAN/IPSL, Sorbonne University, Paris, France 3 Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA 4 NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA 5 Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA 6 NCAR, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Boulder, CO, USA 174 EL NIÑO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION IN A CHANGING CLIMATE","PeriodicalId":12539,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical monograph","volume":"27 1","pages":"173-198"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85459057","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-10-23DOI: 10.1002/9781119548164.ch16
L. Goddard, A. Gershunov
{"title":"Impact of El Niño on Weather and Climate Extremes","authors":"L. Goddard, A. Gershunov","doi":"10.1002/9781119548164.ch16","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119548164.ch16","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":12539,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical monograph","volume":"4 1","pages":"361-375"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82507653","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-10-23DOI: 10.1002/9781119548164.ch14
A. Taschetto, C. Ummenhofer, M. Stuecker, D. Dommenget, K. Ashok, R. Rodrigues, S. Yeh
{"title":"ENSO Atmospheric Teleconnections","authors":"A. Taschetto, C. Ummenhofer, M. Stuecker, D. Dommenget, K. Ashok, R. Rodrigues, S. Yeh","doi":"10.1002/9781119548164.ch14","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119548164.ch14","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":12539,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical monograph","volume":"58 1","pages":"309-335"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82871238","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-10-23DOI: 10.1002/9781119548164.CH13
A. Timmermann, J. Oberhuber, A. Bacher, M. Esch, M. Latif, E. Roeckner
{"title":"ENSO Response to Greenhouse Forcing","authors":"A. Timmermann, J. Oberhuber, A. Bacher, M. Esch, M. Latif, E. Roeckner","doi":"10.1002/9781119548164.CH13","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119548164.CH13","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":12539,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical monograph","volume":"27 1","pages":"289-307"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91373320","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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