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Household Debt Overhang and Unemployment 家庭债务积压和失业
Pub Date : 2019-01-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3310018
J. Donaldson, Giorgia Piacentino, A. Thakor
We use a labor‐search model to explain why the worst employment slumps often follow expansions of household debt. We find that households protected by limited liability suffer from a household‐debt‐overhang problem that leads them to require high wages to work. Firms respond by posting high wages but few vacancies. This vacancy posting effect implies that high household debt leads to high unemployment. Even though households borrow from banks via bilaterally optimal contracts, the equilibrium level of household debt is inefficiently high due to a household‐debt externality. We analyze the role that a financial regulator can play in mitigating this externality.
我们使用劳动力搜索模型来解释为什么最严重的就业衰退往往伴随着家庭债务的扩张。我们发现,受有限责任保护的家庭遭受家庭债务过剩的问题,导致他们需要高工资来工作。公司的应对之策是开出高工资,但很少有职位空缺。这种空缺发布效应意味着高家庭债务导致高失业率。即使家庭通过双边最优合同从银行借款,由于家庭-债务外部性,家庭债务的均衡水平也是低效的。我们分析了金融监管机构在缓解这种外部性方面可以发挥的作用。
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引用次数: 30
Socio-Economic Need Assessment of a Rural Area in the Philippines 菲律宾农村地区的社会经济需求评估
Pub Date : 2018-12-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3303031
R. C. Garcia, Daniel Paguia
Poverty has been a persistent global issue that is being addressed in the Sustainable Development Goal 2030 designed to continuously reduce the extreme poverty situation. In line with this, the study is aimed to determine the socio-economic condition of Barangay Abut in the City of San Fernando, La Union, Philippines to be able to propose strategic moves for its development. The study specifically presented the perceived economic condition, the social condition, socio-economic related problems encountered, and the proposed actions to improve the socio-economic condition of the place. It covered 79 households as participants in the survey. Simple descriptive statistics were utilized in analyzing the gathered data. The study found the economic and social aspects to be perceived as average condition, however, related problems were encountered, such as inadequate livelihood opportunities, insufficient facilities and services, and poor socio-economic conditions among others. A strategic development plan is proposed to include poverty alleviation, values formation, solid waste management, and capability building among others.
贫困一直是一个长期存在的全球问题,旨在持续减少极端贫困状况的2030年可持续发展目标正在解决这一问题。据此,本研究旨在确定菲律宾圣费尔南多市Barangay Abut的社会经济状况,以便能够为其发展提出战略举措。该研究具体介绍了感知到的经济状况、社会状况、遇到的社会经济相关问题,以及改善该地区社会经济状况的拟议行动。调查对象包括79个家庭。在分析收集的数据时采用简单的描述性统计。研究发现,经济和社会方面被认为是一般情况,然而,遇到了有关的问题,例如谋生机会不足、设施和服务不足、社会经济条件差等等。提出了一个战略发展规划,包括扶贫、价值观形成、固体废物管理和能力建设等。
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引用次数: 1
The Marginal Propensity to Hire 边际雇佣倾向
Pub Date : 2018-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3302845
Davide Melcangi
This paper studies the link between firm-level financial constraints and employment decisions, as well as the implications for the propagation of aggregate shocks. I exploit the idea that, when the financial constraint binds, a firm adjusts its employment in response to cash flow shocks. I identify such shocks from changes to business rates, a UK tax based on a periodically estimated value of the property occupied by the firm. A 2010 revaluation implied that similar firms, occupying similar properties in narrowly defined geographical locations, experienced different tax changes, allowing me to control for confounding shocks to local demand. I find that, on average, for every £1 of additional cash flow, 39 pence are spent on employment. I label this response the Marginal Propensity to Hire (MPH). I then calibrate a firm dynamics model with financial frictions towards this empirical evidence. As in the data, small and leveraged firms in the model have a greater MPH. Simulating a tightening of credit conditions, I find that the model can account for much of the decline in UK aggregate output and employment observed in the wake of the financial crisis.
本文研究了企业层面的财务约束与就业决策之间的联系,以及对总冲击传播的影响。我利用了这样一种观点,即当财务约束约束时,企业会调整其就业以应对现金流冲击。我从商业税率的变化中发现了这种冲击,这是一种基于公司所占用财产的定期估计价值的英国税收。2010年的一次重估意味着,在狭义地理位置占据类似房产的类似公司,经历了不同的税收变化,这让我能够控制对当地需求的混杂冲击。我发现,平均而言,每增加1英镑的现金流,就会有39便士花在就业上。我把这种反应称为边际雇佣倾向(MPH)。然后,我根据这一经验证据校准了一个带有金融摩擦的企业动态模型。与数据一样,模型中的小型和杠杆化公司具有更高的MPH。通过模拟信贷条件收紧,我发现该模型可以解释金融危机后英国总产出和就业下降的大部分原因。
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引用次数: 8
Does Individualism Promote Gender Equality? 个人主义促进性别平等吗?
Pub Date : 2018-11-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3295204
Lewis S. Davis, Claudia R. Williamson
Abstract We argue that individualism promotes gender equality. Individualist values of autonomy and self-determination transcend gender identities and serve to legitimize women’s goals and choices. In contrast, collectivist values may subordinate women’s personal goals to their social obligations, generating greater acceptance of gender inequality. Using individual level data from World Values Surveys, we find that individualism is significantly associated with support for gender equal attitudes regarding employment, income, education, and political leadership. Individualism is also associated with greater levels of female employment and educational attainment, and lower levels of fertility. These results are robust to controlling for income, education, religion, historical plough use, gendered language, and country-time fixed effects. Our within country analysis allows us to isolate the impact of individualism from other confounding effects. Using historical rainfall variation as an instrument for individualism, we find that the exogenous portion of individualism reduces support for patriarchal attitudes and fertility, and it increases female employment and educational attainment. These effects are economically large. We address concerns over instrumental validity by controlling for a variety of factors, including historical plough use, religious affiliation, religiosity, social trust, average rainfall levels, distance from the equator, cool-water conditions, agricultural suitability, historical political and economic development, and the presence of large animals. This paper contributes to a mounting body of evidence suggesting a key role for highly persistent cultural norms and values in determining gender inequality, the gender division of labor, and economic and social outcomes for women.
摘要我们认为个人主义促进了性别平等。自主和自决的个人主义价值观超越了性别认同,使妇女的目标和选择合法化。相反,集体主义价值观可能使妇女的个人目标服从于她们的社会义务,从而使人们更容易接受性别不平等。使用来自世界价值观调查的个人层面数据,我们发现个人主义与在就业、收入、教育和政治领导方面对性别平等态度的支持显著相关。个人主义还与较高的女性就业水平和受教育程度以及较低的生育率有关。这些结果在控制收入、教育、宗教、历史耕地使用、性别语言和国家时间固定效应的情况下是稳健的。我们的国家内部分析使我们能够将个人主义的影响与其他混杂效应隔离开来。利用历史降雨变化作为个人主义的工具,我们发现个人主义的外生部分减少了对父权态度和生育率的支持,并增加了女性的就业和受教育程度。这些影响在经济上是巨大的。我们通过控制各种因素来解决对工具有效性的关注,这些因素包括历史犁的使用、宗教信仰、宗教信仰、社会信任、平均降雨量、与赤道的距离、冷水条件、农业适宜性、历史政治和经济发展以及大型动物的存在。本文提供了越来越多的证据,表明高度持久的文化规范和价值观在决定性别不平等、性别分工以及女性的经济和社会结果方面发挥了关键作用。
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引用次数: 61
Short-Term Contracts and Its Effect on Wages in Indian Regular Wage Employment: An Unconditional Quantile Regression Approach 短期合同及其对印度正常工资就业的影响:无条件分位数回归方法
Pub Date : 2018-09-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3254825
Rahul Menon
The increase in regular wage employment in the Indian economy between 2004-05 to 2011-12 was accompanied by a significant deterioration in job security; more workers find themselves on short-term and insecure contracts. Using data from the 68th and the 61st Round of the National Sample Survey Organisation on Employment covering the period 2004-05 to 2011-12, it was found that workers on short-term contracts earn significantly lesser than workers on long-term contracts after controlling for various factors such as education, union membership etc. Using unconditional quantile regressions, it can be seen that the maximum impact is felt by workers earning the median wage. High-wage workers face just as much of a penalty – if not more – from short-term contracts as low-wage workers. This is in contrast to studies on the phenomenon of temporary work in Europe, which found that low-wage workers were affected disproportionately due to short-term contracts. The negative impact on wages due to short-term contracts has increased for high-wage workers in 2011-12 as compared to 2004-05, while there has been no real change for low-wage workers.
在2004-05年至2011-12年期间,印度经济中正常工资就业人数的增加伴随着工作保障的显著恶化;越来越多的工人发现自己签订的是短期且没有保障的合同。利用2004-05年至2011-12年期间全国就业抽样调查组织第68轮和第61轮的数据,研究发现,在控制了教育、工会会员等各种因素后,短期合同工人的收入明显低于长期合同工人。使用无条件分位数回归可以看出,收入中位数的工人受到的影响最大。在短期合同中,高工资工人面临的惩罚与低工资工人一样多,甚至更多。这与欧洲对临时工作现象的研究形成了对比,后者发现,由于短期合同,低薪工人受到的影响不成比例。与2004- 2005年相比,2011-12年高工资工人的短期合同对工资的负面影响有所增加,而对低工资工人来说,并没有真正的变化。
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引用次数: 0
The Measurement of Capital: Retrieving Initial Values from Panel Data 资本的度量:从面板数据中检索初始值
Pub Date : 2018-09-01 DOI: 10.1111/roiw.12300
Xi Chen, T. Plotnikova
A common problem with micro‐level analysis is that capital stock data is missing. Typically, a feasible measure of capital is calculated by accumulating investment flows from an initial value of the capital stock. As the time dimension of most disaggregated data is rather short, the choice of this initial value can have significant effects on the resulting capital estimates. Most empirical studies impute the initial value using a single arbitrary proxy. In this paper, we propose a panel data framework that assigns weighting coefficients to multiple proxy variables. We conduct a series of Monte Carlo experiments to test the performance of the proposed method and apply the method to a U.S. manufacturing dataset. The results suggest that our method improves the approximation of the capital stock and thus in turn reduces the bias in the production function estimation.
微观层面分析的一个常见问题是缺少资本存量数据。通常,一个可行的资本度量是通过从资本存量的初始值累积投资流量来计算的。由于大多数分解数据的时间维度相当短,因此该初始值的选择可能对最终的资本估计产生重大影响。大多数实证研究使用单个任意代理来推算初始值。在本文中,我们提出了一个面板数据框架,为多个代理变量分配权重系数。我们进行了一系列蒙特卡罗实验来测试所提出方法的性能,并将该方法应用于美国制造业数据集。结果表明,我们的方法改善了资本存量的近似值,从而减少了生产函数估计中的偏差。
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引用次数: 2
Determinants of Automation Risk in the EU Labour Market: A Skills-Needs Approach 欧盟劳动力市场自动化风险的决定因素:技能需求方法
Pub Date : 2018-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3253487
K. Pouliakas
This paper focuses on identifying determinants of 'automatability risk', namely the propensity of EU employees being in jobs with high risk of substitutability by machines, robots or other algorithmic processes, and uncovers its impact on labour market outcomes. Using relevant data on tasks and skill needs in jobs, collected by the European skills and jobs survey (ESJS), jobs are bundled according to their estimated risk of automation. The paper builds on the methodology of previous studies that estimate the latent relationship between 'true' automatability and job tasks (Frey and Osborne, 2013, 2017; Arntz et al., 2016; Nedelkoska and Quintini, 2018) but utilises highly disaggregated job descriptions provided by a subsample of the ESJS, as well as information on jobs' skill requirements. About 14% of EU adult workers are found to face a very high risk of automation. The distribution of high automatability across industries and occupations is also found to be skewed towards routine jobs with low demand for transversal and social skills. The risk of job displacement by machines is higher among males and lower-skilled workers, with little evidence of polarisation. It is prevalent in private sector jobs that fail to provide remedial training to employees, accentuating the vulnerability of at-risk-workers and highlighting the need for stronger lifelong learning policies at EU level.
本文着重于确定“自动化风险”的决定因素,即欧盟员工从事机器、机器人或其他算法过程可替代的高风险工作的倾向,并揭示其对劳动力市场结果的影响。使用欧洲技能和工作调查(ESJS)收集的有关工作任务和技能需求的相关数据,根据其估计的自动化风险将工作捆绑在一起。本文建立在先前研究的方法基础上,这些研究估计了“真正的”自动化与工作任务之间的潜在关系(Frey和Osborne, 2013, 2017;Arntz et al., 2016;Nedelkoska和Quintini, 2018),但利用ESJS的子样本提供的高度分类的职位描述,以及有关工作技能要求的信息。大约14%的欧盟成年工人面临着自动化的高风险。研究还发现,自动化程度高的行业和职业倾向于对横向技能和社交技能要求不高的常规工作。在男性和低技能工人中,机器取代工作的风险更高,几乎没有证据表明存在两极分化。这种现象在私营部门的工作岗位中很普遍,这些岗位无法为员工提供补习培训,这凸显了风险工人的脆弱性,也凸显了在欧盟层面制定更强有力的终身学习政策的必要性。
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引用次数: 46
The Ins and Outs of Involuntary Part-time Employment 非自愿兼职工作的来龙去脉
Pub Date : 2018-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3298925
Daniel Borowczyk-Martins, E. Lalé
We develop an adjustment procedure to construct U.S. monthly time series of involuntary part-time employment stocks and flows from 1976 until today. Armed with these new data, we provide a comprehensive account of the dynamics of involuntary part-time work. Transitions from full-time to involuntary part-time employment dominate this dynamics, spiking up at recessions' onsets and persisting well into recovery periods. On the other hand, weaknesses in job creation contribute little to these fluctuations. Our data and findings are relevant to inform a broader assessment of labor market performance and to develop models of cyclical labor adjustment.
我们开发了一个调整程序来构建美国每月非自愿兼职就业存量和流量的时间序列从1976年至今。有了这些新数据,我们对非自愿兼职工作的动态进行了全面的描述。从全职工作到非自愿兼职工作的转变主导了这一动态,在衰退开始时急剧上升,并持续到复苏时期。另一方面,在创造就业方面的弱点对这些波动贡献不大。我们的数据和研究结果有助于对劳动力市场表现进行更广泛的评估,并有助于开发周期性劳动力调整模型。
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引用次数: 20
International Capital Mobility and Unemployment Dynamics: Empirical Evidence from OECD Countries 国际资本流动与失业动态:来自经合组织国家的经验证据
Pub Date : 2018-08-28 DOI: 10.1111/twec.12705
Giovanna Vallanti
We use a panel of 20 OECD countries over a 30-year period to investigate empirically the implications of international capital mobility for aggregate unemployment dynamics. To this aim, we employ standard regression analysis and dynamic simulations to illustrate the channels through which international capital mobility impacts unemployment adjustments to productivity shocks and in turn quantify its effect on unemployment volatility. We find that capital mobility plays a significant role in generating unemployment responses to idiosyncratic productivity shocks which are wider but less persistent. Moreover, the evidence we provide suggests that the responsive- ness effect dominates the persistence effect, implying a net increase in unemployment volatility due to higher international capital mobility. Finally, if we simulate the effects of an increase of international capital mobility of the same order of magnitude of that occurred in the OECD countries after the mid-80s, we obtain a rise in the volatility of unemployment rate which is comparable to that observed in those countries in the same years.
我们利用20个经合组织国家30年的时间来实证调查国际资本流动对总失业动态的影响。为此,我们采用标准回归分析和动态模拟来说明国际资本流动影响失业率调整到生产率冲击的渠道,并反过来量化其对失业率波动的影响。我们发现,资本流动性在产生失业反应方面发挥了重要作用,这些失业反应是对范围更广但持续时间较短的特殊生产率冲击的反应。此外,我们提供的证据表明,反应性效应主导了持久性效应,这意味着由于国际资本流动性的提高,失业波动性的净增加。最后,如果我们模拟80年代中期之后经合组织国家发生的相同数量级的国际资本流动性增加的影响,我们会得到失业率波动率的上升,这与这些国家在同一年观察到的情况相当。
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引用次数: 1
An Axiomatic Foundation of the Multiplicative Human Development Index 乘法人类发展指数的公理基础
Pub Date : 2018-08-01 DOI: 10.1111/roiw.12370
Yoko Kawada, Yuta Nakamura, Shuhei Otani
The aggregation formula in the Human Development Index (HDI) was changed to geometric mean in 2010. In this paper, we search for a theoretical justification for employing this new HDI formula. First, we find a maximal class of index functions, what we call quasi-geometric means, that satisfy symmetry for the characteristics, normalization, and separability. Second, we show that power means are the only quasi-geometric means satisfying homogeneity. Finally, the new HDI is the only power mean satisfying minimal lower boundedness, which is a local complementability axiom proposed by Herrero, Martinez, and Villar (2010).
2010年,人类发展指数(HDI)的汇总公式改为几何平均。在本文中,我们寻找一个理论的理由,采用这个新的HDI公式。首先,我们找到了一类极大的指标函数,我们称之为准几何均值,它满足特征、归一化和可分性的对称性。其次,我们证明幂均值是唯一满足齐次性的拟几何均值。最后,新的HDI是唯一满足最小下界的幂均值,这是Herrero, Martinez, and Villar(2010)提出的一个局部互补公理。
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引用次数: 8
期刊
ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Employment
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