This paper focuses on identifying determinants of 'automatability risk', namely the propensity of EU employees being in jobs with high risk of substitutability by machines, robots or other algorithmic processes, and uncovers its impact on labour market outcomes. Using relevant data on tasks and skill needs in jobs, collected by the European skills and jobs survey (ESJS), jobs are bundled according to their estimated risk of automation. The paper builds on the methodology of previous studies that estimate the latent relationship between 'true' automatability and job tasks (Frey and Osborne, 2013, 2017; Arntz et al., 2016; Nedelkoska and Quintini, 2018) but utilises highly disaggregated job descriptions provided by a subsample of the ESJS, as well as information on jobs' skill requirements. About 14% of EU adult workers are found to face a very high risk of automation. The distribution of high automatability across industries and occupations is also found to be skewed towards routine jobs with low demand for transversal and social skills. The risk of job displacement by machines is higher among males and lower-skilled workers, with little evidence of polarisation. It is prevalent in private sector jobs that fail to provide remedial training to employees, accentuating the vulnerability of at-risk-workers and highlighting the need for stronger lifelong learning policies at EU level.
本文着重于确定“自动化风险”的决定因素，即欧盟员工从事机器、机器人或其他算法过程可替代的高风险工作的倾向，并揭示其对劳动力市场结果的影响。使用欧洲技能和工作调查(ESJS)收集的有关工作任务和技能需求的相关数据，根据其估计的自动化风险将工作捆绑在一起。本文建立在先前研究的方法基础上，这些研究估计了“真正的”自动化与工作任务之间的潜在关系(Frey和Osborne, 2013, 2017;Arntz et al.， 2016;Nedelkoska和Quintini, 2018)，但利用ESJS的子样本提供的高度分类的职位描述，以及有关工作技能要求的信息。大约14%的欧盟成年工人面临着自动化的高风险。研究还发现，自动化程度高的行业和职业倾向于对横向技能和社交技能要求不高的常规工作。在男性和低技能工人中，机器取代工作的风险更高，几乎没有证据表明存在两极分化。这种现象在私营部门的工作岗位中很普遍，这些岗位无法为员工提供补习培训，这凸显了风险工人的脆弱性，也凸显了在欧盟层面制定更强有力的终身学习政策的必要性。
{"title":"Determinants of Automation Risk in the EU Labour Market: A Skills-Needs Approach","authors":"K. Pouliakas","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3253487","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3253487","url":null,"abstract":"This paper focuses on identifying determinants of 'automatability risk', namely the propensity of EU employees being in jobs with high risk of substitutability by machines, robots or other algorithmic processes, and uncovers its impact on labour market outcomes. Using relevant data on tasks and skill needs in jobs, collected by the European skills and jobs survey (ESJS), jobs are bundled according to their estimated risk of automation. The paper builds on the methodology of previous studies that estimate the latent relationship between 'true' automatability and job tasks (Frey and Osborne, 2013, 2017; Arntz et al., 2016; Nedelkoska and Quintini, 2018) but utilises highly disaggregated job descriptions provided by a subsample of the ESJS, as well as information on jobs' skill requirements. About 14% of EU adult workers are found to face a very high risk of automation. The distribution of high automatability across industries and occupations is also found to be skewed towards routine jobs with low demand for transversal and social skills. The risk of job displacement by machines is higher among males and lower-skilled workers, with little evidence of polarisation. It is prevalent in private sector jobs that fail to provide remedial training to employees, accentuating the vulnerability of at-risk-workers and highlighting the need for stronger lifelong learning policies at EU level.","PeriodicalId":125977,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122540432","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We develop an adjustment procedure to construct U.S. monthly time series of involuntary part-time employment stocks and flows from 1976 until today. Armed with these new data, we provide a comprehensive account of the dynamics of involuntary part-time work. Transitions from full-time to involuntary part-time employment dominate this dynamics, spiking up at recessions' onsets and persisting well into recovery periods. On the other hand, weaknesses in job creation contribute little to these fluctuations. Our data and findings are relevant to inform a broader assessment of labor market performance and to develop models of cyclical labor adjustment.
{"title":"The Ins and Outs of Involuntary Part-time Employment","authors":"Daniel Borowczyk-Martins, E. Lalé","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3298925","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3298925","url":null,"abstract":"We develop an adjustment procedure to construct U.S. monthly time series of involuntary part-time employment stocks and flows from 1976 until today. Armed with these new data, we provide a comprehensive account of the dynamics of involuntary part-time work. Transitions from full-time to involuntary part-time employment dominate this dynamics, spiking up at recessions' onsets and persisting well into recovery periods. On the other hand, weaknesses in job creation contribute little to these fluctuations. Our data and findings are relevant to inform a broader assessment of labor market performance and to develop models of cyclical labor adjustment.","PeriodicalId":125977,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122608253","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We use a panel of 20 OECD countries over a 30-year period to investigate empirically the implications of international capital mobility for aggregate unemployment dynamics. To this aim, we employ standard regression analysis and dynamic simulations to illustrate the channels through which international capital mobility impacts unemployment adjustments to productivity shocks and in turn quantify its effect on unemployment volatility. We find that capital mobility plays a significant role in generating unemployment responses to idiosyncratic productivity shocks which are wider but less persistent. Moreover, the evidence we provide suggests that the responsive- ness effect dominates the persistence effect, implying a net increase in unemployment volatility due to higher international capital mobility. Finally, if we simulate the effects of an increase of international capital mobility of the same order of magnitude of that occurred in the OECD countries after the mid-80s, we obtain a rise in the volatility of unemployment rate which is comparable to that observed in those countries in the same years.
{"title":"International Capital Mobility and Unemployment Dynamics: Empirical Evidence from OECD Countries","authors":"Giovanna Vallanti","doi":"10.1111/twec.12705","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12705","url":null,"abstract":"We use a panel of 20 OECD countries over a 30-year period to investigate empirically the implications of international capital mobility for aggregate unemployment dynamics. To this aim, we employ standard regression analysis and dynamic simulations to illustrate the channels through which international capital mobility impacts unemployment adjustments to productivity shocks and in turn quantify its effect on unemployment volatility. We find that capital mobility plays a significant role in generating unemployment responses to idiosyncratic productivity shocks which are wider but less persistent. Moreover, the evidence we provide suggests that the responsive- ness effect dominates the persistence effect, implying a net increase in unemployment volatility due to higher international capital mobility. Finally, if we simulate the effects of an increase of international capital mobility of the same order of magnitude of that occurred in the OECD countries after the mid-80s, we obtain a rise in the volatility of unemployment rate which is comparable to that observed in those countries in the same years.","PeriodicalId":125977,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132931914","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Australia's Northern Territory Emergency Response and subsequent School Enrolment and Attendance Measure (SEAM) credibly threatened to remove welfare benefits from Indigenous families if their children failed to attend school regularly. A difference‐in‐difference analysis of participation rates in the National Assessment Program – Literacy and Numeracy shows a substantial increase in participation rates the year after SEAM was implemented. However, administrators rarely carried out the threatened sanctions, and these initial gains largely dissipated in subsequent years. This unique episode illustrates the limited scope for promoting Indigenous school participation through conditional cash penalties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
{"title":"Enforcing Compulsory Schooling Through Credible Coercion: Lessons from Australia's Northern Territory Intervention","authors":"Moshe Justman, K. Peyton","doi":"10.1111/1475-4932.12418","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-4932.12418","url":null,"abstract":"Australia's Northern Territory Emergency Response and subsequent School Enrolment and Attendance Measure (SEAM) credibly threatened to remove welfare benefits from Indigenous families if their children failed to attend school regularly. A difference‐in‐difference analysis of participation rates in the National Assessment Program – Literacy and Numeracy shows a substantial increase in participation rates the year after SEAM was implemented. However, administrators rarely carried out the threatened sanctions, and these initial gains largely dissipated in subsequent years. This unique episode illustrates the limited scope for promoting Indigenous school participation through conditional cash penalties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]","PeriodicalId":125977,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124729567","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper offers a historical perspective on economists’ treatment of women, through exploring the case of Paul Samuelson. Some of his remarks about women in the economy and in economics were famously considered deprecatory. We place them in the context of the discussions of discrimination in his textbook, Economics, and his interactions with female students and colleagues. Drawing on correspondence as well as published work, the paper reveals a complex set of attitudes: Samuelson recognized very early that women were held back by discrimination and wrote about it with a depth not seen in other textbooks. But his experience and support of women he knew did not mitigate some of the prejudices he held about women in general. It was when challenged over some of his statements that he apologized and adopted a more reflexive stance.
{"title":"'I Occasionally Learn Something': Paul Samuelson, Gender Bias and Discrimination Before 1973","authors":"R. Backhouse, Béatrice Cherrier","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.3206042","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.3206042","url":null,"abstract":"This paper offers a historical perspective on economists’ treatment of women, through exploring the case of Paul Samuelson. Some of his remarks about women in the economy and in economics were famously considered deprecatory. We place them in the context of the discussions of discrimination in his textbook, Economics, and his interactions with female students and colleagues. Drawing on correspondence as well as published work, the paper reveals a complex set of attitudes: Samuelson recognized very early that women were held back by discrimination and wrote about it with a depth not seen in other textbooks. But his experience and support of women he knew did not mitigate some of the prejudices he held about women in general. It was when challenged over some of his statements that he apologized and adopted a more reflexive stance.","PeriodicalId":125977,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115082468","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Marcela Eslava, J. Haltiwanger, Alvaro-Jose Pinzon G.
There is growing consensus that a key difference between the U.S. and developing economies is that the latter exhibit slower employment growth over the life cycle of the average business. At the same time, the rapid post entry growth in the U.S. is driven by an “up or out dynamic”. We track manufacturing establishments in Colombia vs. the US and find that slower average life cycle growth in Colombia is driven by a less enthusiastic contribution of extraordinary growth plants and less dynamic selection of young underperforming plants. As a consequence, the size distribution of non-micro plants exhibits more concentration in small-old plants in Colombia, both in unweighted and employment-weighted bases. These findings point to a shortage of high-growth entrepreneurship and a relatively high likelihood of long-run survival for small, likely unproductive plants, as two key elements at the heart of the development problem. An extreme concentration of resources in micro plants is the other distinguishing feature of the Colombian manufacturing sector vis a vis the US.
{"title":"Job Creation in Colombia vs the U.S.: “Up or Out Dynamics” Meets “The Life Cycle of Plants”","authors":"Marcela Eslava, J. Haltiwanger, Alvaro-Jose Pinzon G.","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3194803","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3194803","url":null,"abstract":"There is growing consensus that a key difference between the U.S. and developing economies is that the latter exhibit slower employment growth over the life cycle of the average business. At the same time, the rapid post entry growth in the U.S. is driven by an “up or out dynamic”. We track manufacturing establishments in Colombia vs. the US and find that slower average life cycle growth in Colombia is driven by a less enthusiastic contribution of extraordinary growth plants and less dynamic selection of young underperforming plants. As a consequence, the size distribution of non-micro plants exhibits more concentration in small-old plants in Colombia, both in unweighted and employment-weighted bases. These findings point to a shortage of high-growth entrepreneurship and a relatively high likelihood of long-run survival for small, likely unproductive plants, as two key elements at the heart of the development problem. An extreme concentration of resources in micro plants is the other distinguishing feature of the Colombian manufacturing sector vis a vis the US.","PeriodicalId":125977,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115168630","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sônia Regina D'Amélio Pontes, Sérgio Roberto da Silva, Fernando de Almeida Santos
EnglishSports in Brazil and in the world are sources of employment and income. Despite being the most popular sport in the country and having several fans, football clubs do not participate in the Brazilian stock market. Observing this fact, the research identified the degree of probability of the team fan turning into an investor. Therefore, a quantitative research of the survey type, using the Likert scale, was carried out with 283 fans from several soccer teams in Brazil. Nonparametric statistics were used to analyze the data. The research hypothesized about the gender, age, income and fans of the largest Brazilian teams. The survey results indicate that respondents are in the "undecided / doubtful" category. Genders do not have different indexes, however, numerically women have more confidence in investing. Age and income, too, do not influence the likelihood of becoming an investor. Finally, even the teams with a large number of fans did not differ from the other teams in relation to the option to invest. The research aims to contribute to the analysis of the strategy of association between fans and investors with possible policies for the construction of investment environments in soccer clubs in Brazil. portuguesOs esportes no Brasil e no mundo sao fontes de emprego e renda. Apesar de ser o esporte mais popular no pais e possuir torcedores diversos, os clubes de futebol nao participam no mercado de acoes brasileiro. Observando este fato, a pesquisa identificou o grau de probabilidade do torcedor do time transformar-se em um investidor. Portanto, foi realizada pesquisa quantitativa do tipo survey, utilizando a escala de Likert, com 283 torcedores de diversos times de futebol no Brasil. Para a analise dos dados foi utilizada estatistica nao parametrica. A pesquisa lancou hipoteses acerca do genero, idade, renda e torcedores dos maiores times brasileiros. Os resultados da pesquisa indicam que os entrevistados se encontram na categoria dos “indecisos/duvidosos”. Os generos nao possuem indices diferentes, porem, numericamente as mulheres possuem mais confianca no investimento. A idade e a renda, tambem, nao demonstram influenciar na probabilidade de tornar-se investidor. Por fim, mesmo os times com grande numero de torcedores, nao se diferenciaram dos demais times em relacao a opcao de investir. A pesquisa visa contribuir para a analise da estrategia de associacao entre torcedores a investidores e com possiveis politicas para construcao de ambientes de investimentos em clubes de futebol no Brasil.
体育在巴西和全世界都是就业和收入的来源。尽管足球是巴西最受欢迎的运动，拥有众多球迷，但足球俱乐部并不参与巴西的股票市场。观察到这一事实，该研究确定了球队球迷转变为投资者的概率程度。因此，使用李克特量表对来自巴西几支足球队的283名球迷进行了调查类型的定量研究。采用非参数统计方法对数据进行分析。这项研究对巴西最大的几支球队的性别、年龄、收入和球迷进行了假设。调查结果显示，受访者属于“未定/怀疑”类别。性别指数没有差异，但从数字上看，女性对投资更有信心。年龄和收入也不会影响成为投资者的可能性。最后，即使是拥有大量球迷的球队，在选择投资方面也与其他球队没有什么不同。本研究旨在分析球迷与投资者之间的关联策略，为巴西足球俱乐部投资环境的建设提供可能的政策。葡萄牙的体育运动员没有巴西，也没有世界的体育运动员，没有巴西的体育运动员。在巴西，足球俱乐部是最受欢迎的，因为足球俱乐部不参与巴西足球市场。Observando este - fato，是一种可以识别出概率或时间变换的pesquisa。巴西，巴西，巴西，巴西，巴西，巴西，巴西，巴西，巴西，巴西，巴西，巴西，巴西对数据利用率和统计参数进行了分析。一个pesquisa lanco(一种特殊的、有代表性的、有代表性的、有代表性的、有代表性的、有代表性的、有代表性的、有代表性的东西)。“优柔寡断者/无远见者”这一类别是“优柔寡断者/无远见者”。两种不同类型的投资组合指标不同，不同类型、不同类型的投资组合是不同的投资组合。一个数据显示，一个数据显示，数据显示，数据显示，数据显示，数据显示，数据显示，数据显示，数据显示，数据显示，数据显示，数据显示，数据显示，数据显示，数据显示，数据显示。糟糕的电影，电影的数量比电影的数量多，电影的数量比电影的数量多，电影的数量比电影的数量多。在巴西的足球俱乐部中，投资环境的政治因素、建设因素、投资环境的积极因素都是pesquisa签证的贡献者。
{"title":"De Torcedor A Investidor: Um Estudo dos Antecedentes para a Determinação de Tornar-Se um Investidor Financeiro em Times de Futebol (Of the Investor: A Study of Two Contexts for a Determination to Become a Financial Investor in Football Times)","authors":"Sônia Regina D'Amélio Pontes, Sérgio Roberto da Silva, Fernando de Almeida Santos","doi":"10.5585/PODIUM.V7I2.266","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5585/PODIUM.V7I2.266","url":null,"abstract":"EnglishSports in Brazil and in the world are sources of employment and income. Despite being the most popular sport in the country and having several fans, football clubs do not participate in the Brazilian stock market. Observing this fact, the research identified the degree of probability of the team fan turning into an investor. Therefore, a quantitative research of the survey type, using the Likert scale, was carried out with 283 fans from several soccer teams in Brazil. Nonparametric statistics were used to analyze the data. The research hypothesized about the gender, age, income and fans of the largest Brazilian teams. The survey results indicate that respondents are in the \"undecided / doubtful\" category. Genders do not have different indexes, however, numerically women have more confidence in investing. Age and income, too, do not influence the likelihood of becoming an investor. Finally, even the teams with a large number of fans did not differ from the other teams in relation to the option to invest. The research aims to contribute to the analysis of the strategy of association between fans and investors with possible policies for the construction of investment environments in soccer clubs in Brazil. portuguesOs esportes no Brasil e no mundo sao fontes de emprego e renda. Apesar de ser o esporte mais popular no pais e possuir torcedores diversos, os clubes de futebol nao participam no mercado de acoes brasileiro. Observando este fato, a pesquisa identificou o grau de probabilidade do torcedor do time transformar-se em um investidor. Portanto, foi realizada pesquisa quantitativa do tipo survey, utilizando a escala de Likert, com 283 torcedores de diversos times de futebol no Brasil. Para a analise dos dados foi utilizada estatistica nao parametrica. A pesquisa lancou hipoteses acerca do genero, idade, renda e torcedores dos maiores times brasileiros. Os resultados da pesquisa indicam que os entrevistados se encontram na categoria dos “indecisos/duvidosos”. Os generos nao possuem indices diferentes, porem, numericamente as mulheres possuem mais confianca no investimento. A idade e a renda, tambem, nao demonstram influenciar na probabilidade de tornar-se investidor. Por fim, mesmo os times com grande numero de torcedores, nao se diferenciaram dos demais times em relacao a opcao de investir. A pesquisa visa contribuir para a analise da estrategia de associacao entre torcedores a investidores e com possiveis politicas para construcao de ambientes de investimentos em clubes de futebol no Brasil.","PeriodicalId":125977,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114533632","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-04-23DOI: 10.16980/jitc.14.2.201804.21
Hyun-Jae Rhee
This study re-evaluated Okun’s law by applying breakpoint analysis; concerning this, the study analyzed six models including the first differenced, modified, and gap models. Empirical evidence reveals that models without breakpoints support the proposition of the conventional Okun’s law, even though the estimated Okun’s coefficients do not match up to the expected values. A few models with breakpoints also support Okun’s law at all the breakpoints. Apparently, the robustness of Okun’s law has been demonstrated in the Korean economy. However, the signs of Okun’s coefficients have been mixed in the gap model since the 2000s. Such changes provide robust evidence that Okun’s law has been weak since the 2000s. Therefore, Okun’s law may not hold if it discusses the potential real GDP and full employment. Taken together, it can be said that the effectiveness of an employment policy based on the manipulation of the national income level may be questionable in the Korean economy. Particularly, when the policy, potential real GDP, and full employment are interrelated, it has to be elaborately established to maximize the effectiveness of the policy.
{"title":"Testing for the Robustness of Okun’s Law With Breakpoint Analysis: Evidence From Korea","authors":"Hyun-Jae Rhee","doi":"10.16980/jitc.14.2.201804.21","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.16980/jitc.14.2.201804.21","url":null,"abstract":"This study re-evaluated Okun’s law by applying breakpoint analysis; concerning this, the study analyzed six models including the first differenced, modified, and gap models. Empirical evidence reveals that models without breakpoints support the proposition of the conventional Okun’s law, even though the estimated Okun’s coefficients do not match up to the expected values. A few models with breakpoints also support Okun’s law at all the breakpoints. Apparently, the robustness of Okun’s law has been demonstrated in the Korean economy. However, the signs of Okun’s coefficients have been mixed in the gap model since the 2000s. Such changes provide robust evidence that Okun’s law has been weak since the 2000s. Therefore, Okun’s law may not hold if it discusses the potential real GDP and full employment. Taken together, it can be said that the effectiveness of an employment policy based on the manipulation of the national income level may be questionable in the Korean economy. Particularly, when the policy, potential real GDP, and full employment are interrelated, it has to be elaborately established to maximize the effectiveness of the policy.","PeriodicalId":125977,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124532610","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Many government policies affect incentives to acquire human capital. Two workhorse models dominate the literature analyzing these policies: Learning by Doing (LBD) and Ben-Porath (BP). This paper makes two novel findings related to these models. First, LBD and BP generate different predictions for life-cycle earnings growth. BP predicts that the heterogeneity in earnings growth rates across workers should disappear over the life-cycle because the workers stop investing as they age. The LBD model cannot replicate this feature because workers accumulate human capital automatically throughout the life-cycle. Second, the same model features that generate different life-cycle predictions between BP and LBD also generate different implications for policies that affect the payoff to human capital accumulation. To illustrate this quantitatively, I show that increasing marginal labor tax rates for top earners depresses human capital accumulation more under BP. As a result, the Laffer curve for top marginal income tax rates is flatter, and peaks 10 percentage points lower, with BP versus LBD.
{"title":"Learning by Doing and Ben-Porath: Life-cycle Predictions and Policy Implications","authors":"A. Blandin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3751346","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3751346","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Many government policies affect incentives to acquire human capital. Two workhorse models dominate the literature analyzing these policies: Learning by Doing (LBD) and Ben-Porath (BP). This paper makes two novel findings related to these models. First, LBD and BP generate different predictions for life-cycle earnings growth. BP predicts that the heterogeneity in earnings growth rates across workers should disappear over the life-cycle because the workers stop investing as they age. The LBD model cannot replicate this feature because workers accumulate human capital automatically throughout the life-cycle. Second, the same model features that generate different life-cycle predictions between BP and LBD also generate different implications for policies that affect the payoff to human capital accumulation. To illustrate this quantitatively, I show that increasing marginal labor tax rates for top earners depresses human capital accumulation more under BP. As a result, the Laffer curve for top marginal income tax rates is flatter, and peaks 10 percentage points lower, with BP versus LBD.","PeriodicalId":125977,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"144 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132688136","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper compares the decentral organization of unemployment insurance in member states of a state union with the central organization at the upper union’ level. In a model of two countries the labor force and the firm owners can migrate between the states. Labor markets exhibit unemployment due to trade union’s bargaining about the wage rate. In a decentral scenario the states organize independently unemployment insurance and decide about the rate on wages contributed to the insurance budget. Due to open borders they have to take account of migration effects. However, with perfect mobility between the states each government chooses a socially optimal contribution rate such that workers are fully insured against unemployment. In the central scenario the governments overestimate the costs of insurance when bargaining about the contribution rate and observing the common insurance budget of both countries. This leads to a less than socially optimal contribution rate.
{"title":"Should Unemployment Insurance Be Centralized in a State Union?","authors":"Robert Fenge, M. Friese","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3164773","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3164773","url":null,"abstract":"This paper compares the decentral organization of unemployment insurance in member states of a state union with the central organization at the upper union’ level. In a model of two countries the labor force and the firm owners can migrate between the states. Labor markets exhibit unemployment due to trade union’s bargaining about the wage rate. In a decentral scenario the states organize independently unemployment insurance and decide about the rate on wages contributed to the insurance budget. Due to open borders they have to take account of migration effects. However, with perfect mobility between the states each government chooses a socially optimal contribution rate such that workers are fully insured against unemployment. In the central scenario the governments overestimate the costs of insurance when bargaining about the contribution rate and observing the common insurance budget of both countries. This leads to a less than socially optimal contribution rate.","PeriodicalId":125977,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"47 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131069762","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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