Keynes’s revolution in macroeconomic theory is based on his application in the General Theory of his Inexact measurement approach from the A Treatise on Probability. This involves the use of interval valued probability and interval valued outcomes. Keynes called this approach approximation. It entails nonadditive (sub and super) probabilities, imprecise probabilities, indefinite and indeterminate probabilities,to which Keynes added interval valued outcomes in the General Theory. Except in special cases, Keynes rejected both Exact measurement,which involved the use of precise, definite, determinate, additive, linear probabilities, which imply that the decision maker knows an exact probability distribution.
Keynes developed Boole's original logical theory of probability by developing an alternative method of solving Boole’s problems. Like Boole, Keynes’s approach involved solving systems of equations, the constraints, using linear and non linear, mathematical programming techniques. Keynes uses special aggregation assumptions in order to use and present an exact mathematical analysis in his D-Z model of chapter 20, which is the foundation for his IS-LM(LP) model of chapter 21. The D-Z model deals with expectations and uncertainty that results in a specific Y value. That Y value is an actual value that is certain, quantitative, and deterministic. Keynes then combines Y with r, the nominal, long run rate of interest, to derive the IS and LM(LP) curves on pp.298-299 of the General Theory.
The General Theory has, unfortunately, attracted two completely different types of interpreters, both of which conflict directly with Keynes’s use of inexact measurement.
The first type of interpreter essentially follows the views of Hicks(1937), Tinbergen(1940), Modigliani(1944) and Klein(1947), for example, in asserting that Keynes's approach in the General Theory was, in fact, a purely verbal, literary, prose approach, with no mathematical or statistical foundation whatsoever, that needed to be reworked in order to present it in mathematical form.
The second approach follows the Joan Robinson and G LS Shackle nihilist approach in asserting that Keynes argued that no mathematical, technical, analytic or quantitative approaches involving mathematical modeling or equations could ever be possible in macroeconomics because of the existence of what they called unknowledge or fundamental uncertainty, which meant that no decision maker has any knowledge whatsoever of anything that can occur in the future, be it the near future or the distant future, be it one day in the future, one month in the future, one year in the future, five years in the future, ten years in the future, twenty years in the future, etc. The best that could be done was to assume that decision makers could sometimes make use of a weak, ordinal probability approach. Both approaches have no support whatsoever in anything actually written by Keynes in his lifetime. The nihili
凯恩斯在宏观经济理论中的革命是基于他在《概率论》中的不精确测量方法在《通论》中的应用。这涉及到区间值概率和区间值结果的使用。凯恩斯称这种方法为近似。它包含非加性(次和超)概率、不精确概率、不确定和不确定概率，凯恩斯在《通论》中添加了区间值结果。除了在特殊情况下，凯恩斯拒绝了精确测量，这涉及到使用精确的，确定的，确定的，附加的，线性的概率，这意味着决策者知道一个精确的概率分布。凯恩斯通过发展一种解决布尔问题的替代方法，发展了布尔的原始概率逻辑理论。和布尔一样，凯恩斯的方法涉及求解方程组、约束，使用线性和非线性的数学规划技术。凯恩斯使用了特殊的聚合假设，以便在第20章的D-Z模型中使用和呈现精确的数学分析，这是第21章的is - lm (LP)模型的基础。D-Z模型处理导致特定Y值的期望和不确定性。Y值是一个确定的、定量的、确定的实际值。然后，凯恩斯将Y与名义长期利率r结合起来，在《通论》第298-299页推导出IS和LM(LP)曲线。不幸的是，《通论》吸引了两种完全不同类型的解释，这两种解释都与凯恩斯使用不精确测量的观点直接冲突。第一种解释者基本上遵循希克斯(1937)、丁伯根(1940)、莫迪利亚尼(1944)和克莱因(1947)的观点，例如，他们认为凯恩斯在《通论》中的方法实际上是一种纯粹的口头、文学、散文方法，没有任何数学或统计基础，需要重新设计，以便以数学形式呈现。第二种方法遵循琼·罗宾逊和G·LS·沙克尔的虚无主义方法，凯恩斯认为，在宏观经济学中，没有数学的，技术的，分析的或定量的方法涉及数学模型或方程是可能的，因为他们所谓的不知识或基本不确定性的存在，这意味着没有决策者对未来可能发生的任何事情都有任何了解，不管是不久的将来还是遥远的将来，是将来的一天，将来的一个月，将来的一年，将来的五年，将来的十年，将来的二十年，等等。最好的情况是假设决策者有时可以使用弱的顺序概率方法。这两种方法在凯恩斯生前的著作中都没有得到任何支持。凯恩斯原教旨主义者(Moggridge, Skidelsky, Meeks, O 'Donnell, Carabelli, Fitzgibbons, Runde, Davis, Winslow等)的虚无主义方法是基于对《概率论》(a Treatise on Probability)第39页图表的严重误解。一旦这个错误得到纠正，很明显，凯恩斯在研究高低概率的方法中使用了一种涉及非线性和非加性分析的数学方法，而Tinbergen、Modigliani和Klein只是因为不熟悉区间值概率的概念而忽略了这一点。凯恩斯的不精确方法得到了发展，可以在Hailperin(1986)和Walley(1991)的工作中进行研究。没有一个宏观经济学家熟悉这项工作。凯恩斯描述了他的pp.298-299模型在GT使用以下单词或短语的总结:•一个人可以计算一个定量的答案•该模型由三个元素组成a)， b)，和c)•它提供了一个分析，是有价值的引入秩序和方法的查询•它是一组联立方程•它提供了一个确定的答案或结果。•这个结果是一个均衡——凯恩斯在《通论》中描述了他的is - lm (LP)模型。
{"title":"J.M. Keynes’s Revolution in the General Theory in Macroeconomics is Based on a Foundation of His Inexact Measurement Approach in Parts II and V of the a Treatise on Probability","authors":"M. E. Brady","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3371740","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3371740","url":null,"abstract":"Keynes’s revolution in macroeconomic theory is based on his application in the General Theory of his Inexact measurement approach from the A Treatise on Probability. This involves the use of interval valued probability and interval valued outcomes. Keynes called this approach approximation. It entails nonadditive (sub and super) probabilities, imprecise probabilities, indefinite and indeterminate probabilities,to which Keynes added interval valued outcomes in the General Theory. Except in special cases, Keynes rejected both Exact measurement,which involved the use of precise, definite, determinate, additive, linear probabilities, which imply that the decision maker knows an exact probability distribution.<br><br>Keynes developed Boole's original logical theory of probability by developing an alternative method of solving Boole’s problems. Like Boole, Keynes’s approach involved solving systems of equations, the constraints, using linear and non linear, mathematical programming techniques. Keynes uses special aggregation assumptions in order to use and present an exact mathematical analysis in his D-Z model of chapter 20, which is the foundation for his IS-LM(LP) model of chapter 21. The D-Z model deals with expectations and uncertainty that results in a specific Y value. That Y value is an actual value that is certain, quantitative, and deterministic. Keynes then combines Y with r, the nominal, long run rate of interest, to derive the IS and LM(LP) curves on pp.298-299 of the General Theory.<br><br>The General Theory has, unfortunately, attracted two completely different types of interpreters, both of which conflict directly with Keynes’s use of inexact measurement. <br><br>The first type of interpreter essentially follows the views of Hicks(1937), Tinbergen(1940), Modigliani(1944) and Klein(1947), for example, in asserting that Keynes's approach in the General Theory was, in fact, a purely verbal, literary, prose approach, with no mathematical or statistical foundation whatsoever, that needed to be reworked in order to present it in mathematical form. <br><br>The second approach follows the Joan Robinson and G LS Shackle nihilist approach in asserting that Keynes argued that no mathematical, technical, analytic or quantitative approaches involving mathematical modeling or equations could ever be possible in macroeconomics because of the existence of what they called unknowledge or fundamental uncertainty, which meant that no decision maker has any knowledge whatsoever of anything that can occur in the future, be it the near future or the distant future, be it one day in the future, one month in the future, one year in the future, five years in the future, ten years in the future, twenty years in the future, etc. The best that could be done was to assume that decision makers could sometimes make use of a weak, ordinal probability approach. Both approaches have no support whatsoever in anything actually written by Keynes in his lifetime. The nihili","PeriodicalId":125977,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127761403","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We examine how the services sector could provide decent and gainful employment in developing Asia. Using living wages as a reference point, we report that a significant portion of the workforce in developing Asian economies, the majority of which are employed in the agricultural sector, are not living wage earners. On the other hand, manufacturing, and to a larger extent, services, are able to provide their workforce with good jobs. Economies that are more successful at moving workers from low- to high-productivity sectors have done better on job creation accompanied with improved productivity, higher wages, and large reductions in poverty. Recent developments of information and communication technology industries, as in the case of India and the Philippines, is a striking example of how developing economies can open up business opportunities through global outsourcing of tradable labor. We highlight the importance of improving human capital through education and upskilling, as well as physical and digital infrastructure, to address the large supply of low-productivity and informal sector workers in developing Asia, and to provide new and gainful employment opportunities.
{"title":"Prospects for Decent Work in Services","authors":"Sameer Khatiwada, J. P. Flaminiano","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3470041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3470041","url":null,"abstract":"We examine how the services sector could provide decent and gainful employment in developing Asia. Using living wages as a reference point, we report that a significant portion of the workforce in developing Asian economies, the majority of which are employed in the agricultural sector, are not living wage earners. On the other hand, manufacturing, and to a larger extent, services, are able to provide their workforce with good jobs. Economies that are more successful at moving workers from low- to high-productivity sectors have done better on job creation accompanied with improved productivity, higher wages, and large reductions in poverty. Recent developments of information and communication technology industries, as in the case of India and the Philippines, is a striking example of how developing economies can open up business opportunities through global outsourcing of tradable labor. We highlight the importance of improving human capital through education and upskilling, as well as physical and digital infrastructure, to address the large supply of low-productivity and informal sector workers in developing Asia, and to provide new and gainful employment opportunities.","PeriodicalId":125977,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132608520","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I document a disparity in the cyclicality of the allocative wage-the labor costs considered when deciding to form or dissolve an employment relationship-across levels of educational attainment. Specifically, workers with a bachelors degree or more exhibit an allocative wage that is highly pro-cyclical while high school dropouts exhibit no statistically discernible cyclical pattern. I also assess the response to monetary policy shocks of both employment and allocative wages across education groups. The less educated respond to monetary policy shocks on the employment margin while the more educated respond on the wage margin. An important takeaway is that conventional monetary policy easing reduces employment inequality but increases wage inequality. I embed these findings in a New Keynesian framework that includes price and heterogeneous wage rigidity and show that heterogeneity results in welfare losses due to fluctuations that exceed those of the output-gap and p rice-level equivalent representative agent economy. The excess welfare loss is borne by the least educated.
{"title":"Do Greasy Wheels Curb Inequality?","authors":"Cynthia L. Doniger","doi":"10.17016/FEDS.2019.021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2019.021","url":null,"abstract":"I document a disparity in the cyclicality of the allocative wage-the labor costs considered when deciding to form or dissolve an employment relationship-across levels of educational attainment. Specifically, workers with a bachelors degree or more exhibit an allocative wage that is highly pro-cyclical while high school dropouts exhibit no statistically discernible cyclical pattern. I also assess the response to monetary policy shocks of both employment and allocative wages across education groups. The less educated respond to monetary policy shocks on the employment margin while the more educated respond on the wage margin. An important takeaway is that conventional monetary policy easing reduces employment inequality but increases wage inequality. I embed these findings in a New Keynesian framework that includes price and heterogeneous wage rigidity and show that heterogeneity results in welfare losses due to fluctuations that exceed those of the output-gap and p rice-level equivalent representative agent economy. The excess welfare loss is borne by the least educated.","PeriodicalId":125977,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130394688","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-03-01DOI: 10.5089/9781498302784.001
Antonio C. David, Frederic J. Lambert, F. Toscani
We analyze the performance of labor markets in Latin America since the late 1990s. Strong GDP growth during the commodity boom period led to important gains in employment and a fall in the unemployment rate as labor demand outpaced an increasing labor supply. We emphasize the role of informality in the dynamics of labor markets in Latin America. A re-examination of Okun's law shows that informality dampens changes in unemployment accompanying output fluctuations. Moreover, we present some evidence that countries with higher redundancy costs and cumbersome dismissal regulations, exhibit 'excess' informality over and above what would be expected based on their income and educational levels. Labor market reforms could thus contribute to reducing informality and increasing the responsiveness of labor markets to output growth. However, looking at selected case studies of reforms using the synthetic control method, we find mixed results in terms of labor market outcomes.
{"title":"More Work to Do? Taking Stock of Latin American Labor Markets","authors":"Antonio C. David, Frederic J. Lambert, F. Toscani","doi":"10.5089/9781498302784.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498302784.001","url":null,"abstract":"We analyze the performance of labor markets in Latin America since the late 1990s. Strong GDP growth during the commodity boom period led to important gains in employment and a fall in the unemployment rate as labor demand outpaced an increasing labor supply. We emphasize the role of informality in the dynamics of labor markets in Latin America. A re-examination of Okun's law shows that informality dampens changes in unemployment accompanying output fluctuations. Moreover, we present some evidence that countries with higher redundancy costs and cumbersome dismissal regulations, exhibit 'excess' informality over and above what would be expected based on their income and educational levels. Labor market reforms could thus contribute to reducing informality and increasing the responsiveness of labor markets to output growth. However, looking at selected case studies of reforms using the synthetic control method, we find mixed results in terms of labor market outcomes.","PeriodicalId":125977,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"3 2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123427308","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In the United States structure and equipment capital are eectively taxed at dierent rates. Recently, President Obama joined the group of policy makers and economists who propose to eliminate these dierentials. This paper analyzes the consequences of such a reform using an incomplete markets model with equipment-skill complementarity. We nd that the reform increases average welfare by 0.1%. Importantly, we nd that the reform does not involve the usual eciency vs. equality trade-o: it improves both. JEL classication: E62, H21.
{"title":"On the Consequences of Eliminating Capital Tax Differentials","authors":"Ctirad Slav́ık, Hakkı Yazıcı","doi":"10.1111/caje.12370","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/caje.12370","url":null,"abstract":"In the United States structure and equipment capital are eectively taxed at dierent rates. Recently, President Obama joined the group of policy makers and economists who propose to eliminate these dierentials. This paper analyzes the consequences of such a reform using an incomplete markets model with equipment-skill complementarity. We nd that the reform increases average welfare by 0.1%. Importantly, we nd that the reform does not involve the usual eciency vs. equality trade-o: it improves both. JEL classication: E62, H21.","PeriodicalId":125977,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"160 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121789300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We use a labor‐search model to explain why the worst employment slumps often follow expansions of household debt. We find that households protected by limited liability suffer from a household‐debt‐overhang problem that leads them to require high wages to work. Firms respond by posting high wages but few vacancies. This vacancy posting effect implies that high household debt leads to high unemployment. Even though households borrow from banks via bilaterally optimal contracts, the equilibrium level of household debt is inefficiently high due to a household‐debt externality. We analyze the role that a financial regulator can play in mitigating this externality.
{"title":"Household Debt Overhang and Unemployment","authors":"J. Donaldson, Giorgia Piacentino, A. Thakor","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3310018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3310018","url":null,"abstract":"We use a labor‐search model to explain why the worst employment slumps often follow expansions of household debt. We find that households protected by limited liability suffer from a household‐debt‐overhang problem that leads them to require high wages to work. Firms respond by posting high wages but few vacancies. This vacancy posting effect implies that high household debt leads to high unemployment. Even though households borrow from banks via bilaterally optimal contracts, the equilibrium level of household debt is inefficiently high due to a household‐debt externality. We analyze the role that a financial regulator can play in mitigating this externality.","PeriodicalId":125977,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133146025","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Poverty has been a persistent global issue that is being addressed in the Sustainable Development Goal 2030 designed to continuously reduce the extreme poverty situation. In line with this, the study is aimed to determine the socio-economic condition of Barangay Abut in the City of San Fernando, La Union, Philippines to be able to propose strategic moves for its development. The study specifically presented the perceived economic condition, the social condition, socio-economic related problems encountered, and the proposed actions to improve the socio-economic condition of the place. It covered 79 households as participants in the survey. Simple descriptive statistics were utilized in analyzing the gathered data. The study found the economic and social aspects to be perceived as average condition, however, related problems were encountered, such as inadequate livelihood opportunities, insufficient facilities and services, and poor socio-economic conditions among others. A strategic development plan is proposed to include poverty alleviation, values formation, solid waste management, and capability building among others.
{"title":"Socio-Economic Need Assessment of a Rural Area in the Philippines","authors":"R. C. Garcia, Daniel Paguia","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3303031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3303031","url":null,"abstract":"Poverty has been a persistent global issue that is being addressed in the Sustainable Development Goal 2030 designed to continuously reduce the extreme poverty situation. In line with this, the study is aimed to determine the socio-economic condition of Barangay Abut in the City of San Fernando, La Union, Philippines to be able to propose strategic moves for its development. The study specifically presented the perceived economic condition, the social condition, socio-economic related problems encountered, and the proposed actions to improve the socio-economic condition of the place. It covered 79 households as participants in the survey. Simple descriptive statistics were utilized in analyzing the gathered data. The study found the economic and social aspects to be perceived as average condition, however, related problems were encountered, such as inadequate livelihood opportunities, insufficient facilities and services, and poor socio-economic conditions among others. A strategic development plan is proposed to include poverty alleviation, values formation, solid waste management, and capability building among others.","PeriodicalId":125977,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114423621","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract We argue that individualism promotes gender equality. Individualist values of autonomy and self-determination transcend gender identities and serve to legitimize women’s goals and choices. In contrast, collectivist values may subordinate women’s personal goals to their social obligations, generating greater acceptance of gender inequality. Using individual level data from World Values Surveys, we find that individualism is significantly associated with support for gender equal attitudes regarding employment, income, education, and political leadership. Individualism is also associated with greater levels of female employment and educational attainment, and lower levels of fertility. These results are robust to controlling for income, education, religion, historical plough use, gendered language, and country-time fixed effects. Our within country analysis allows us to isolate the impact of individualism from other confounding effects. Using historical rainfall variation as an instrument for individualism, we find that the exogenous portion of individualism reduces support for patriarchal attitudes and fertility, and it increases female employment and educational attainment. These effects are economically large. We address concerns over instrumental validity by controlling for a variety of factors, including historical plough use, religious affiliation, religiosity, social trust, average rainfall levels, distance from the equator, cool-water conditions, agricultural suitability, historical political and economic development, and the presence of large animals. This paper contributes to a mounting body of evidence suggesting a key role for highly persistent cultural norms and values in determining gender inequality, the gender division of labor, and economic and social outcomes for women.
{"title":"Does Individualism Promote Gender Equality?","authors":"Lewis S. Davis, Claudia R. Williamson","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3295204","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3295204","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We argue that individualism promotes gender equality. Individualist values of autonomy and self-determination transcend gender identities and serve to legitimize women’s goals and choices. In contrast, collectivist values may subordinate women’s personal goals to their social obligations, generating greater acceptance of gender inequality. Using individual level data from World Values Surveys, we find that individualism is significantly associated with support for gender equal attitudes regarding employment, income, education, and political leadership. Individualism is also associated with greater levels of female employment and educational attainment, and lower levels of fertility. These results are robust to controlling for income, education, religion, historical plough use, gendered language, and country-time fixed effects. Our within country analysis allows us to isolate the impact of individualism from other confounding effects. Using historical rainfall variation as an instrument for individualism, we find that the exogenous portion of individualism reduces support for patriarchal attitudes and fertility, and it increases female employment and educational attainment. These effects are economically large. We address concerns over instrumental validity by controlling for a variety of factors, including historical plough use, religious affiliation, religiosity, social trust, average rainfall levels, distance from the equator, cool-water conditions, agricultural suitability, historical political and economic development, and the presence of large animals. This paper contributes to a mounting body of evidence suggesting a key role for highly persistent cultural norms and values in determining gender inequality, the gender division of labor, and economic and social outcomes for women.","PeriodicalId":125977,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"90 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116382820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The increase in regular wage employment in the Indian economy between 2004-05 to 2011-12 was accompanied by a significant deterioration in job security; more workers find themselves on short-term and insecure contracts. Using data from the 68th and the 61st Round of the National Sample Survey Organisation on Employment covering the period 2004-05 to 2011-12, it was found that workers on short-term contracts earn significantly lesser than workers on long-term contracts after controlling for various factors such as education, union membership etc. Using unconditional quantile regressions, it can be seen that the maximum impact is felt by workers earning the median wage. High-wage workers face just as much of a penalty – if not more – from short-term contracts as low-wage workers. This is in contrast to studies on the phenomenon of temporary work in Europe, which found that low-wage workers were affected disproportionately due to short-term contracts. The negative impact on wages due to short-term contracts has increased for high-wage workers in 2011-12 as compared to 2004-05, while there has been no real change for low-wage workers.
{"title":"Short-Term Contracts and Its Effect on Wages in Indian Regular Wage Employment: An Unconditional Quantile Regression Approach","authors":"Rahul Menon","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3254825","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3254825","url":null,"abstract":"The increase in regular wage employment in the Indian economy between 2004-05 to 2011-12 was accompanied by a significant deterioration in job security; more workers find themselves on short-term and insecure contracts. Using data from the 68th and the 61st Round of the National Sample Survey Organisation on Employment covering the period 2004-05 to 2011-12, it was found that workers on short-term contracts earn significantly lesser than workers on long-term contracts after controlling for various factors such as education, union membership etc. Using unconditional quantile regressions, it can be seen that the maximum impact is felt by workers earning the median wage. High-wage workers face just as much of a penalty – if not more – from short-term contracts as low-wage workers. This is in contrast to studies on the phenomenon of temporary work in Europe, which found that low-wage workers were affected disproportionately due to short-term contracts. The negative impact on wages due to short-term contracts has increased for high-wage workers in 2011-12 as compared to 2004-05, while there has been no real change for low-wage workers.","PeriodicalId":125977,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"219 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132444285","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A common problem with micro‐level analysis is that capital stock data is missing. Typically, a feasible measure of capital is calculated by accumulating investment flows from an initial value of the capital stock. As the time dimension of most disaggregated data is rather short, the choice of this initial value can have significant effects on the resulting capital estimates. Most empirical studies impute the initial value using a single arbitrary proxy. In this paper, we propose a panel data framework that assigns weighting coefficients to multiple proxy variables. We conduct a series of Monte Carlo experiments to test the performance of the proposed method and apply the method to a U.S. manufacturing dataset. The results suggest that our method improves the approximation of the capital stock and thus in turn reduces the bias in the production function estimation.
{"title":"The Measurement of Capital: Retrieving Initial Values from Panel Data","authors":"Xi Chen, T. Plotnikova","doi":"10.1111/roiw.12300","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12300","url":null,"abstract":"A common problem with micro‐level analysis is that capital stock data is missing. Typically, a feasible measure of capital is calculated by accumulating investment flows from an initial value of the capital stock. As the time dimension of most disaggregated data is rather short, the choice of this initial value can have significant effects on the resulting capital estimates. Most empirical studies impute the initial value using a single arbitrary proxy. In this paper, we propose a panel data framework that assigns weighting coefficients to multiple proxy variables. We conduct a series of Monte Carlo experiments to test the performance of the proposed method and apply the method to a U.S. manufacturing dataset. The results suggest that our method improves the approximation of the capital stock and thus in turn reduces the bias in the production function estimation.","PeriodicalId":125977,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129037471","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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