This paper studies the impact of a wide set of energy price shocks on external balances using a two-country framework comprising multiple sectors and endogenous energy production with convex costs. The paper disentangles different demand and supply shocks in the energy market through their distinct impact on external balances. It provides a theoretical confirmation of Kilian et al. (2009) and a theoretical foundation to the determining role of the non-energy trade balance in the transmission of energy price shocks. The presence of durables also highlights the immediate channel through which energy prices impact the non-energy trade balance.
本文采用包含多个部门和具有凸成本的内生能源生产的两国框架，研究了一系列能源价格冲击对外部平衡的影响。本文通过对外部平衡的不同影响，理清了能源市场中不同的需求和供应冲击。为Kilian et al.(2009)的研究提供了理论印证，也为非能源贸易平衡在能源价格冲击传导中的决定作用提供了理论基础。耐用品的出现也凸显了能源价格影响非能源贸易平衡的直接渠道。
{"title":"Energy Price Shocks and External Balances","authors":"Bao Tan Huynh","doi":"10.1111/caje.12214","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/caje.12214","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the impact of a wide set of energy price shocks on external balances using a two-country framework comprising multiple sectors and endogenous energy production with convex costs. The paper disentangles different demand and supply shocks in the energy market through their distinct impact on external balances. It provides a theoretical confirmation of Kilian et al. (2009) and a theoretical foundation to the determining role of the non-energy trade balance in the transmission of energy price shocks. The presence of durables also highlights the immediate channel through which energy prices impact the non-energy trade balance.","PeriodicalId":125977,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114956511","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-05-01DOI: 10.1016/BS.HESMAC.2016.05.001
S. Basu, C. House
{"title":"Allocative and Remitted Wages: New Facts and Challenges for Keynesian Models","authors":"S. Basu, C. House","doi":"10.1016/BS.HESMAC.2016.05.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/BS.HESMAC.2016.05.001","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":125977,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"82 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116623645","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We use historical publications and micro data from tax returns to construct internationally comparable estimates of the development in income inequality in Denmark over the last 140 years. The study shows that income inequality and top income shares have declined during several distinct phases in between periods of stability. Furthermore, the quality of the Danish data allows us to analyse not only the development in top income shares but also broader inequality measures such as the Gini coefficient. These analyses show that top income shares are a good proxy for the underlying development in inequality.
{"title":"The Long‐Run History of Income Inequality in Denmark","authors":"A. Atkinson, J. Søgaard","doi":"10.1111/sjoe.12143","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12143","url":null,"abstract":"We use historical publications and micro data from tax returns to construct internationally comparable estimates of the development in income inequality in Denmark over the last 140 years. The study shows that income inequality and top income shares have declined during several distinct phases in between periods of stability. Furthermore, the quality of the Danish data allows us to analyse not only the development in top income shares but also broader inequality measures such as the Gini coefficient. These analyses show that top income shares are a good proxy for the underlying development in inequality.","PeriodicalId":125977,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134241209","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
As in all of Russia’s earlier economic crises, wage flexibility has become the main mechanism of the labor market’s adaptation to the current crisis. As a result of the high rate of inflation observed in late 2014 – early 2015, real wages dropped by 9.5%, although nominal wages remained unchanged. The considerable reduction in labor costs made it possible for employers to abstain from cutting jobs, due to which the rise in the unemployment rate was utterly insignificant.1
{"title":"Russia's Labor Market: The Specificities of its Adaptation to the Current Crisis","authors":"V. Lyashok","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2757606","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2757606","url":null,"abstract":"As in all of Russia’s earlier economic crises, wage flexibility has become the main mechanism of the labor market’s adaptation to the current crisis. As a result of the high rate of inflation observed in late 2014 – early 2015, real wages dropped by 9.5%, although nominal wages remained unchanged. The considerable reduction in labor costs made it possible for employers to abstain from cutting jobs, due to which the rise in the unemployment rate was utterly insignificant.1","PeriodicalId":125977,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"43 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123488554","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. Izquierdo, J. Llopis, Umberto Muratori, J. Ruiz
This study is a first contribution to prioritization across productivity determinant capabilities that attempts to obtain the equivalent of a "shadow price" for each of these capabilities by estimating their impact on the success a country may have in reaching higher income per capita groups. The prioritization of these determinants-spanning different sectors-seems to be specific to the income per capita group to which a country belongs. Moreover, empirical estimates reveal that interactions among sectors matter for increasing the probability of climbing up the income-per-capita ladder, reflecting the existence of complementarities across sectors, thus indicating that the joint improvement of some of them may be necessary before effects are noticeable. Results also indicate that the identification of priorities by looking at the impact that sectors have on increasing the likelihood of advancing to a better income per capita group may or may not coincide with the size of sector gaps typically used for the determination of priorities, as larger gaps do not necessarily capture the relevance of sectoral restrictions and their interactions.
{"title":"In Search of Larger Per Capita Incomes: How to Prioritize Across Productivity Determinants?","authors":"A. Izquierdo, J. Llopis, Umberto Muratori, J. Ruiz","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2956688","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2956688","url":null,"abstract":"This study is a first contribution to prioritization across productivity determinant capabilities that attempts to obtain the equivalent of a \"shadow price\" for each of these capabilities by estimating their impact on the success a country may have in reaching higher income per capita groups. The prioritization of these determinants-spanning different sectors-seems to be specific to the income per capita group to which a country belongs. Moreover, empirical estimates reveal that interactions among sectors matter for increasing the probability of climbing up the income-per-capita ladder, reflecting the existence of complementarities across sectors, thus indicating that the joint improvement of some of them may be necessary before effects are noticeable. Results also indicate that the identification of priorities by looking at the impact that sectors have on increasing the likelihood of advancing to a better income per capita group may or may not coincide with the size of sector gaps typically used for the determination of priorities, as larger gaps do not necessarily capture the relevance of sectoral restrictions and their interactions.","PeriodicalId":125977,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"72 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128935544","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We investigate changes in the occupation structure in Australia between 1966 and 2011, and the effect of these changes on the earnings distribution. Occupation changes exhibited job polarisation (growth in high and low skill jobs, declines in middle skill jobs) in the 1980s and 1990s and general upskilling in the 1970s and 2000s. Any job polarisation has been primarily a male phenomenon. Occupation changes were consistent with the loss of jobs that were high in routine task intensity. Changes in occupational composition and associated earnings changes contributed significantly to growth in overall earnings inequality from the mid-1980s to the mid-2000s.
{"title":"Job Polarisation and Earnings Inequality in Australia","authors":"Michael Bernard Coelli, J. Borland","doi":"10.1111/1475-4932.12225","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-4932.12225","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate changes in the occupation structure in Australia between 1966 and 2011, and the effect of these changes on the earnings distribution. Occupation changes exhibited job polarisation (growth in high and low skill jobs, declines in middle skill jobs) in the 1980s and 1990s and general upskilling in the 1970s and 2000s. Any job polarisation has been primarily a male phenomenon. Occupation changes were consistent with the loss of jobs that were high in routine task intensity. Changes in occupational composition and associated earnings changes contributed significantly to growth in overall earnings inequality from the mid-1980s to the mid-2000s.","PeriodicalId":125977,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121488281","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Long-term unemployment rose dramatically during the recent recession and remains elevated. In this essay, Andreas Hornstein and Thomas A. Lubik analyze the potential causes of this increase and explore various explanations of “duration dependence,” the fact that the likelihood of finding a job decreases the longer a worker is unemployed. The authors find that more workers with inherently low job finding rates have become unemployed, which suggests that monetary policy may have a limited effect on reducing the incidence of long-term unemployment. The authors also discuss what lessons might be drawn from policy responses to long-term unemployment in Europe.
在最近的经济衰退中，长期失业率急剧上升，目前仍处于高位。在这篇文章中，Andreas Hornstein和Thomas a . Lubik分析了这种增长的潜在原因，并探索了“持续依赖”的各种解释，即工人失业的时间越长，找到工作的可能性就越低。作者发现，更多本来就低就业率的工人失业了，这表明货币政策对减少长期失业的影响可能有限。作者还讨论了从欧洲应对长期失业的政策中可以吸取哪些教训。
{"title":"The Rise in Long-Term Unemployment: Potential Causes and Implications","authors":"Andreas Hornstein, T. Lubik","doi":"10.21144/eq1010203","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21144/eq1010203","url":null,"abstract":"Long-term unemployment rose dramatically during the recent recession and remains elevated. In this essay, Andreas Hornstein and Thomas A. Lubik analyze the potential causes of this increase and explore various explanations of “duration dependence,” the fact that the likelihood of finding a job decreases the longer a worker is unemployed. The authors find that more workers with inherently low job finding rates have become unemployed, which suggests that monetary policy may have a limited effect on reducing the incidence of long-term unemployment. The authors also discuss what lessons might be drawn from policy responses to long-term unemployment in Europe.","PeriodicalId":125977,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"139 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116629240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economists have long been aware of utility externalities such as a tendency to compare own income with others'. If welfare losses from income comparisons are significant, any governmental interventions that alter such attitudes may have large welfare consequences. We conduct an original online survey of discrete-choice questions to estimate such attitudes in the US and the UK. We find that the UK respondents compare incomes more than US respondents do. We then manipulate our respondents with simple information to examine whether the attitudes can be altered. Our information treatment suggesting that comparing income with others may diminish welfare even when income levels increase makes UK respondents compare incomes more rather than less. Interestingly, US respondents are not affected at all. The mechanism behind the UK results seems to be that our treatment gives moral license to make income comparisons by providing information that others do so.
{"title":"Income-Comparison Attitudes in the Us and the UK: Evidence from Discrete-Choice Experiments","authors":"H. Shigeoka, Katsunori Yamada","doi":"10.3386/W21998","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W21998","url":null,"abstract":"Economists have long been aware of utility externalities such as a tendency to compare own income with others'. If welfare losses from income comparisons are significant, any governmental interventions that alter such attitudes may have large welfare consequences. We conduct an original online survey of discrete-choice questions to estimate such attitudes in the US and the UK. We find that the UK respondents compare incomes more than US respondents do. We then manipulate our respondents with simple information to examine whether the attitudes can be altered. Our information treatment suggesting that comparing income with others may diminish welfare even when income levels increase makes UK respondents compare incomes more rather than less. Interestingly, US respondents are not affected at all. The mechanism behind the UK results seems to be that our treatment gives moral license to make income comparisons by providing information that others do so.","PeriodicalId":125977,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124618475","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The purpose of this study was to investigate the influence of some aggregate domes-tic economic forces (i.e., government consumption expenditures and gross Investment; gross private domestic investment and personal consumption expenditures) on the growth of micro firms (businesses with fewer than 20 employees) in the U.S. between the years 1988-2012. The study classified micro firms into three categories (a) firms with employment between 0 and 4 employees, (b) firms with employment between 5 and 9 employees, and (c) firms with employment between 10 and 19 employees. In aggregation, the firms are termed “very small enterprises” by the U.S. Census Bureau. The data for the period 1988-2012 was reviewed, analyzed, and subjected to statistical analysis. It was found that a strong positive correlation exists between each of the aggregate domestic forces and the number of micro-firms in each of the three categories of micro-firms as well as all micro-firms in aggregate. The OLS regression results show all macro variables significantly affecting the growth of micro firms in the size range 10-19 employees. The evidence is more mixed in the other two size categories. The stepwise regression results are more mixed.
{"title":"The Influence of Some Macroeconomic Factors on the Growth of Micro Firms in the United States","authors":"Falih M. Alsaaty, A. Zenebe, Sunando Sengupta","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2775339","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2775339","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this study was to investigate the influence of some aggregate domes-tic economic forces (i.e., government consumption expenditures and gross Investment; gross private domestic investment and personal consumption expenditures) on the growth of micro firms (businesses with fewer than 20 employees) in the U.S. between the years 1988-2012. The study classified micro firms into three categories (a) firms with employment between 0 and 4 employees, (b) firms with employment between 5 and 9 employees, and (c) firms with employment between 10 and 19 employees. In aggregation, the firms are termed “very small enterprises” by the U.S. Census Bureau. The data for the period 1988-2012 was reviewed, analyzed, and subjected to statistical analysis. It was found that a strong positive correlation exists between each of the aggregate domestic forces and the number of micro-firms in each of the three categories of micro-firms as well as all micro-firms in aggregate. The OLS regression results show all macro variables significantly affecting the growth of micro firms in the size range 10-19 employees. The evidence is more mixed in the other two size categories. The stepwise regression results are more mixed.","PeriodicalId":125977,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"107 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114584289","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Learning that others earn more may reduce individual well-being but it can also be informative about the own income prospects. In an environment of uncertainty over the own income, this paper provides experimental evidence on direct income-comparison effects on well-being and informational effects from observing signals about others' income prospects. We find that individual beliefs about the own income are adjusted downwards when observing that others are likely to earn less, but do not significantly adjust when observing that others are likely to earn more. Individual satisfaction decreases when others are likely to earn more but does not change significantly when others are likely to earn less. Overall, informational effects countervail direct incomecomparison effects if and only if the uncertainty over the own income is sufficiently strong.
{"title":"A Glance into the Tunnel: Experimental Evidence on Income Comparisons Under Uncertainty","authors":"Harald Lang, Florian Morath","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2703756","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2703756","url":null,"abstract":"Learning that others earn more may reduce individual well-being but it can also be informative about the own income prospects. In an environment of uncertainty over the own income, this paper provides experimental evidence on direct income-comparison effects on well-being and informational effects from observing signals about others' income prospects. We find that individual beliefs about the own income are adjusted downwards when observing that others are likely to earn less, but do not significantly adjust when observing that others are likely to earn more. Individual satisfaction decreases when others are likely to earn more but does not change significantly when others are likely to earn less. Overall, informational effects countervail direct incomecomparison effects if and only if the uncertainty over the own income is sufficiently strong.","PeriodicalId":125977,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130655138","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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