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Enforcing Compulsory Schooling Through Credible Coercion: Lessons from Australia's Northern Territory Intervention 通过可信的强制手段实施义务教育:来自澳大利亚北领地干预的教训
Pub Date : 2018-07-24 DOI: 10.1111/1475-4932.12418
Moshe Justman, K. Peyton
Australia's Northern Territory Emergency Response and subsequent School Enrolment and Attendance Measure (SEAM) credibly threatened to remove welfare benefits from Indigenous families if their children failed to attend school regularly. A difference‐in‐difference analysis of participation rates in the National Assessment Program – Literacy and Numeracy shows a substantial increase in participation rates the year after SEAM was implemented. However, administrators rarely carried out the threatened sanctions, and these initial gains largely dissipated in subsequent years. This unique episode illustrates the limited scope for promoting Indigenous school participation through conditional cash penalties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
澳大利亚北部地区紧急反应和随后的入学和出勤措施(SEAM)令人信服地威胁说,如果土著家庭的子女不能定期上学,将取消土著家庭的福利。一项对国家评估项目——识字和算术——参与率的差异分析显示,SEAM实施后一年,参与率大幅提高。然而,管理人员很少执行威胁的制裁,这些最初的收益在随后的几年里基本上消失了。这一独特事件表明,通过有条件的现金处罚促进土著学校参与的范围有限。[摘自作者]
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引用次数: 2
What Causes Labor Turnover to Vary? 是什么导致了劳动力流动率的变化?
Pub Date : 2018-07-01 DOI: 10.3386/W24873
E. Lazear, Kristin McCue
Most turnover reflects churn, where hires replace departures. Churn varies substantially by employer, industry and worker characteristics. For example, leisure and hospitality turnover is more than double that of manufacturing. In the LEHD (QWI) data, permanent employer differences account for 36% of the variation in churn. The cost of churn is proxied by the mean wage and the benefit by the variance in wages. QWI and JOLTS data confirm predictions that high mean wage labor markets experience less churn and high wage-variance ones experience more churn. Additionally, less educated, younger and male workers have higher separation and churn rates.
大多数人员流动反映了员工流失,即新聘人员取代离职人员。员工流失率因雇主、行业和员工特点而有很大差异。例如,休闲和酒店业的营业额是制造业的两倍多。在LEHD (QWI)数据中,长期雇主的差异占员工流失率变化的36%。流失成本由平均工资代表,收益由工资差异代表。QWI和JOLTS数据证实了这样的预测:高平均工资劳动力市场的流失率较低,而高工资差异劳动力市场的流失率较高。此外,受教育程度较低、较年轻和男性员工的离职率和流失率更高。
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引用次数: 4
Ability Matters: Effects of Youth Labor‐Market Opportunities on Long‐Term Labor‐Market Outcomes 能力问题:青年劳动力市场机会对长期劳动力市场结果的影响
Pub Date : 2018-07-01 DOI: 10.1111/sjoe.12248
V. F. Haaland
Utilizing registry data from cognitive ability tests for all Norwegian males born between 1962 and 1973, I study whether labor‐market conditions at the age of graduation have differential effects on earnings and employment for different ability groups. I find that low‐ability males are more vulnerable to local business cycles at the expected time of labor‐market entry. In particular, I demonstrate that low‐ability males suffer larger long‐term earnings losses than the rest of the population.
利用1962年至1973年间出生的所有挪威男性的认知能力测试的登记数据,我研究了毕业时的劳动力市场状况是否对不同能力群体的收入和就业有不同的影响。我发现低能力的男性在进入劳动力市场的预期时间更容易受到当地商业周期的影响。特别是,我证明了低能力的男性比其他人群遭受更大的长期收入损失。
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引用次数: 4
'I Occasionally Learn Something': Paul Samuelson, Gender Bias and Discrimination Before 1973 “我偶尔会学到一些东西”:保罗·萨缪尔森,《1973年前的性别偏见与歧视》
Pub Date : 2018-06-30 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3206042
R. Backhouse, Béatrice Cherrier
This paper offers a historical perspective on economists’ treatment of women, through exploring the case of Paul Samuelson. Some of his remarks about women in the economy and in economics were famously considered deprecatory. We place them in the context of the discussions of discrimination in his textbook, Economics, and his interactions with female students and colleagues. Drawing on correspondence as well as published work, the paper reveals a complex set of attitudes: Samuelson recognized very early that women were held back by discrimination and wrote about it with a depth not seen in other textbooks. But his experience and support of women he knew did not mitigate some of the prejudices he held about women in general. It was when challenged over some of his statements that he apologized and adopted a more reflexive stance.
本文通过对保罗·萨缪尔森案例的探讨,提供了一个经济学家对待女性的历史视角。他关于女性在经济和经济学领域的一些言论被认为是出了名的贬损。我们把它们放在他的教科书《经济学》中关于歧视的讨论以及他与女学生和女同事的互动的背景下。根据信件和已发表的作品,这篇论文揭示了一系列复杂的态度:萨缪尔森很早就意识到女性受到歧视的阻碍,并以其他教科书所没有的深度写了这一问题。但他的经历和对他认识的女性的支持并没有减轻他对女性的偏见。当他的一些言论受到质疑时,他才道歉,并采取了一种更自然的立场。
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引用次数: 1
Job Creation in Colombia vs the U.S.: “Up or Out Dynamics” Meets “The Life Cycle of Plants” 哥伦比亚与美国的就业创造:“向上或向外的动态”与“植物的生命周期”
Pub Date : 2018-06-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3194803
Marcela Eslava, J. Haltiwanger, Alvaro-Jose Pinzon G.
There is growing consensus that a key difference between the U.S. and developing economies is that the latter exhibit slower employment growth over the life cycle of the average business. At the same time, the rapid post entry growth in the U.S. is driven by an “up or out dynamic”. We track manufacturing establishments in Colombia vs. the US and find that slower average life cycle growth in Colombia is driven by a less enthusiastic contribution of extraordinary growth plants and less dynamic selection of young underperforming plants. As a consequence, the size distribution of non-micro plants exhibits more concentration in small-old plants in Colombia, both in unweighted and employment-weighted bases. These findings point to a shortage of high-growth entrepreneurship and a relatively high likelihood of long-run survival for small, likely unproductive plants, as two key elements at the heart of the development problem. An extreme concentration of resources in micro plants is the other distinguishing feature of the Colombian manufacturing sector vis a vis the US.
越来越多的人认为,美国和发展中经济体之间的一个关键区别是,后者在普通企业的生命周期中表现出较慢的就业增长。与此同时,进入美国后的快速增长是由“要么上升,要么退出”的动态驱动的。我们对哥伦比亚与美国的制造企业进行了跟踪,发现哥伦比亚的平均生命周期增长较慢,这是由于超常增长工厂的贡献不那么热情,以及对表现不佳的年轻工厂的选择不那么动态。因此,非微型工厂的规模分布更集中于哥伦比亚的小型老工厂,无论是在未加权的基地还是在就业加权的基地。这些发现表明,高增长的企业家精神缺乏,而小型的、可能没有生产力的工厂长期生存的可能性相对较高,这是发展问题的两个关键因素。资源极度集中于微型工厂是哥伦比亚制造业相对于美国的另一个显著特征。
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引用次数: 23
De Torcedor A Investidor: Um Estudo dos Antecedentes para a Determinação de Tornar-Se um Investidor Financeiro em Times de Futebol (Of the Investor: A Study of Two Contexts for a Determination to Become a Financial Investor in Football Times) 从球迷到投资者:决定成为足球队财务投资者的背景研究(投资者:决定成为足球队财务投资者的两种背景研究)
Pub Date : 2018-05-01 DOI: 10.5585/PODIUM.V7I2.266
Sônia Regina D'Amélio Pontes, Sérgio Roberto da Silva, Fernando de Almeida Santos
EnglishSports in Brazil and in the world are sources of employment and income. Despite being the most popular sport in the country and having several fans, football clubs do not participate in the Brazilian stock market. Observing this fact, the research identified the degree of probability of the team fan turning into an investor. Therefore, a quantitative research of the survey type, using the Likert scale, was carried out with 283 fans from several soccer teams in Brazil. Nonparametric statistics were used to analyze the data. The research hypothesized about the gender, age, income and fans of the largest Brazilian teams. The survey results indicate that respondents are in the "undecided / doubtful" category. Genders do not have different indexes, however, numerically women have more confidence in investing. Age and income, too, do not influence the likelihood of becoming an investor. Finally, even the teams with a large number of fans did not differ from the other teams in relation to the option to invest. The research aims to contribute to the analysis of the strategy of association between fans and investors with possible policies for the construction of investment environments in soccer clubs in Brazil. portuguesOs esportes no Brasil e no mundo sao fontes de emprego e renda. Apesar de ser o esporte mais popular no pais e possuir torcedores diversos, os clubes de futebol nao participam no mercado de acoes brasileiro. Observando este fato, a pesquisa identificou o grau de probabilidade do torcedor do time transformar-se em um investidor. Portanto, foi realizada pesquisa quantitativa do tipo survey, utilizando a escala de Likert, com 283 torcedores de diversos times de futebol no Brasil. Para a analise dos dados foi utilizada estatistica nao parametrica. A pesquisa lancou hipoteses acerca do genero, idade, renda e torcedores dos maiores times brasileiros. Os resultados da pesquisa indicam que os entrevistados se encontram na categoria dos “indecisos/duvidosos”. Os generos nao possuem indices diferentes, porem, numericamente as mulheres possuem mais confianca no investimento. A idade e a renda, tambem, nao demonstram influenciar na probabilidade de tornar-se investidor. Por fim, mesmo os times com grande numero de torcedores, nao se diferenciaram dos demais times em relacao a opcao de investir. A pesquisa visa contribuir para a analise da estrategia de associacao entre torcedores a investidores e com possiveis politicas para construcao de ambientes de investimentos em clubes de futebol no Brasil.
体育在巴西和全世界都是就业和收入的来源。尽管足球是巴西最受欢迎的运动,拥有众多球迷,但足球俱乐部并不参与巴西的股票市场。观察到这一事实,该研究确定了球队球迷转变为投资者的概率程度。因此,使用李克特量表对来自巴西几支足球队的283名球迷进行了调查类型的定量研究。采用非参数统计方法对数据进行分析。这项研究对巴西最大的几支球队的性别、年龄、收入和球迷进行了假设。调查结果显示,受访者属于“未定/怀疑”类别。性别指数没有差异,但从数字上看,女性对投资更有信心。年龄和收入也不会影响成为投资者的可能性。最后,即使是拥有大量球迷的球队,在选择投资方面也与其他球队没有什么不同。本研究旨在分析球迷与投资者之间的关联策略,为巴西足球俱乐部投资环境的建设提供可能的政策。葡萄牙的体育运动员没有巴西,也没有世界的体育运动员,没有巴西的体育运动员。在巴西,足球俱乐部是最受欢迎的,因为足球俱乐部不参与巴西足球市场。Observando este - fato,是一种可以识别出概率或时间变换的pesquisa。巴西,巴西,巴西,巴西,巴西,巴西,巴西,巴西,巴西,巴西,巴西,巴西,巴西对数据利用率和统计参数进行了分析。一个pesquisa lanco(一种特殊的、有代表性的、有代表性的、有代表性的、有代表性的、有代表性的、有代表性的、有代表性的东西)。“优柔寡断者/无远见者”这一类别是“优柔寡断者/无远见者”。两种不同类型的投资组合指标不同,不同类型、不同类型的投资组合是不同的投资组合。一个数据显示,一个数据显示,数据显示,数据显示,数据显示,数据显示,数据显示,数据显示,数据显示,数据显示,数据显示,数据显示,数据显示,数据显示,数据显示,数据显示。糟糕的电影,电影的数量比电影的数量多,电影的数量比电影的数量多,电影的数量比电影的数量多。在巴西的足球俱乐部中,投资环境的政治因素、建设因素、投资环境的积极因素都是pesquisa签证的贡献者。
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引用次数: 0
Testing for the Robustness of Okun’s Law With Breakpoint Analysis: Evidence From Korea 用断点分析检验奥肯定律的稳健性:来自韩国的证据
Pub Date : 2018-04-23 DOI: 10.16980/jitc.14.2.201804.21
Hyun-Jae Rhee
This study re-evaluated Okun’s law by applying breakpoint analysis; concerning this, the study analyzed six models including the first differenced, modified, and gap models. Empirical evidence reveals that models without breakpoints support the proposition of the conventional Okun’s law, even though the estimated Okun’s coefficients do not match up to the expected values. A few models with breakpoints also support Okun’s law at all the breakpoints. Apparently, the robustness of Okun’s law has been demonstrated in the Korean economy. However, the signs of Okun’s coefficients have been mixed in the gap model since the 2000s. Such changes provide robust evidence that Okun’s law has been weak since the 2000s. Therefore, Okun’s law may not hold if it discusses the potential real GDP and full employment. Taken together, it can be said that the effectiveness of an employment policy based on the manipulation of the national income level may be questionable in the Korean economy. Particularly, when the policy, potential real GDP, and full employment are interrelated, it has to be elaborately established to maximize the effectiveness of the policy.
本文运用断点分析方法对奥肯定律进行了重新评价;为此,本研究分析了六种模型,包括第一差分模型、修正模型和差距模型。经验证据表明,没有断点的模型支持传统奥肯定律的命题,即使估计的奥肯系数与期望值不匹配。一些带有断点的模型在所有断点处也支持奥肯定律。显然,奥肯定律的坚固性在韩国经济中得到了证明。然而,自2000年代以来,奥肯系数的迹象在缺口模型中一直是混合的。这些变化提供了强有力的证据,证明奥肯定律自2000年代以来一直很弱。因此,如果讨论潜在实际GDP和充分就业,奥肯定律可能就不成立了。综上所言,在韩国经济中,以操纵国民收入水平为基础的雇佣政策的有效性值得怀疑。特别是,当政策、潜在实际GDP和充分就业三者相互关联时,必须精心制定,以使政策的有效性最大化。
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引用次数: 0
Learning by Doing and Ben-Porath: Life-cycle Predictions and Policy Implications 从实践中学习和本-波拉斯:生命周期预测和政策影响
Pub Date : 2018-03-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3751346
A. Blandin
Abstract Many government policies affect incentives to acquire human capital. Two workhorse models dominate the literature analyzing these policies: Learning by Doing (LBD) and Ben-Porath (BP). This paper makes two novel findings related to these models. First, LBD and BP generate different predictions for life-cycle earnings growth. BP predicts that the heterogeneity in earnings growth rates across workers should disappear over the life-cycle because the workers stop investing as they age. The LBD model cannot replicate this feature because workers accumulate human capital automatically throughout the life-cycle. Second, the same model features that generate different life-cycle predictions between BP and LBD also generate different implications for policies that affect the payoff to human capital accumulation. To illustrate this quantitatively, I show that increasing marginal labor tax rates for top earners depresses human capital accumulation more under BP. As a result, the Laffer curve for top marginal income tax rates is flatter, and peaks 10 percentage points lower, with BP versus LBD.
许多政府政策会影响企业获取人力资本的激励。在分析这些政策的文献中,有两个主力模型占主导地位:边做边学(LBD)和Ben-Porath (BP)。本文对这些模型有两个新的发现。首先,LBD和BP对生命周期收益增长的预测不同。英国石油公司预测,工人收入增长率的异质性将在整个生命周期中消失,因为工人随着年龄的增长而停止投资。LBD模型无法复制这一特征,因为工人在整个生命周期中自动积累人力资本。其次,相同的模型特征在BP和LBD之间产生不同的生命周期预测,也对影响人力资本积累回报的政策产生不同的影响。为了定量地说明这一点,我表明,在BP下,提高高收入者的边际劳动税率对人力资本积累的抑制作用更大。因此,最高边际所得税率的拉弗曲线更平坦,峰值比BP和LBD低10个百分点。
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引用次数: 16
Should Unemployment Insurance Be Centralized in a State Union? 失业保险应该集中在一个国家联盟吗?
Pub Date : 2018-02-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3164773
Robert Fenge, M. Friese
This paper compares the decentral organization of unemployment insurance in member states of a state union with the central organization at the upper union’ level. In a model of two countries the labor force and the firm owners can migrate between the states. Labor markets exhibit unemployment due to trade union’s bargaining about the wage rate. In a decentral scenario the states organize independently unemployment insurance and decide about the rate on wages contributed to the insurance budget. Due to open borders they have to take account of migration effects. However, with perfect mobility between the states each government chooses a socially optimal contribution rate such that workers are fully insured against unemployment. In the central scenario the governments overestimate the costs of insurance when bargaining about the contribution rate and observing the common insurance budget of both countries. This leads to a less than socially optimal contribution rate.
本文比较了国家联盟成员国失业保险的分散组织与上层联盟的中央组织。在两个国家的模型中,劳动力和企业所有者可以在两个州之间迁移。劳动力市场由于工会对工资率的讨价还价而出现失业。在分散的情况下,各州独立组织失业保险,并决定保险预算中工资的比例。由于边境开放,他们必须考虑移民的影响。然而,在州与州之间完全流动的情况下,每个政府都会选择一个社会最优的缴费率,使工人得到充分的失业保险。在中心情景中,政府在协商费率和观察两国共同保险预算时高估了保险成本。这导致了一个低于社会最优的贡献率。
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引用次数: 0
Why are Wages Still Lower in Eastern and Central Europe? 为什么东欧和中欧的工资仍然较低?
Pub Date : 2018-01-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3112152
M. Myant
This new working paper explores why there is a persistent wage gap between western Europe and the new EU Member States of eastern and central Europe. Why is it still the case that after 27 years of transition from state socialism and 14 years of EU membership the closing of the gap in living standards between western Europe and eastern and central Europe remains as elusive as ever, with little likelihood of any meaningful convergence happening any time soon. How has this situation been allowed to happen? What role have economic policies, particularly the dependence on low wages to attract inward foreign direct investment, played. And why do wages in those countries remain significantly lower than in western Europe. These are just some of the questions this timely publication addresses.
这份新的工作文件探讨了为什么西欧与东欧和中欧的欧盟新成员国之间存在持续的工资差距。为什么在经历了27年的国家社会主义转型和14年的欧盟成员国身份之后,西欧与东欧和中欧之间生活水平差距的缩小仍然像以往一样难以实现,短期内出现任何有意义的趋同的可能性微乎其微?怎么会允许这种情况发生呢?经济政策,特别是依靠低工资来吸引外来直接投资,发挥了什么作用?为什么这些国家的工资水平仍然明显低于西欧。这些只是这本及时出版的出版物所要解决的一些问题。
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引用次数: 11
期刊
ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Employment
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