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Political Realignment and Democratic Breakdown in Argentina, 1916-1930 阿根廷的政治重组与民主崩溃,1916-1930
Pub Date : 2010-04-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1594412
Eduardo Alemán, Sebastián Saiegh
There is a rich literature in comparative politics discussing what makes democracies fragile and more likely to break down. The question has stimulated a substantial amount of research focusing on the fate of specific countries as well as on large cross-national comparisons over long periods of time. In the last decade several important works in political economy have advanced our understanding of some of the forces that systematically influence regime stability across countries. However, closer examination of the processes at work at the country-level indicates that some this literature’s claims are at odds with the historical evidence. In this paper, we revisit one historical event that has been repeatedly discussed by the literature on democratic breakdown: the rise and fall of Argentine democracy between 1916 and 1930. First, we demonstrate that socioeconomic factors do not furnish a convincing explanation for the 1930 coup. Next, we present an alternative explanation: we argue that the coup was the product of a polarizing political realignment that led to a legitimacy crisis. We examine our argument using estimates of Argentine legislators' latent preferences (ideal points) between 1916 and 1930. The roll call data analysis suggests that disputes over socioeconomic issues did not precipitate the breakdown of the regime. What mattered was the allocation of political power. These findings support the view that stable democracy requires that all major groups in society have a sufficiently large chance of being in power.
在比较政治学方面,有大量文献讨论是什么让民主变得脆弱,更容易崩溃。这个问题激发了大量的研究,重点关注具体国家的命运,以及长期的大型跨国比较。在过去的十年里,政治经济学领域的几部重要著作促进了我们对一些系统性影响各国政权稳定的力量的理解。然而,对国家层面的工作过程进行更仔细的检查表明,这些文献的一些主张与历史证据不一致。在本文中,我们回顾了一个在民主崩溃的文献中反复讨论的历史事件:1916年至1930年间阿根廷民主的兴衰。首先,我们证明社会经济因素并没有为1930年的政变提供令人信服的解释。接下来,我们提出了另一种解释:我们认为政变是两极分化的政治重组的产物,导致了合法性危机。我们使用1916年至1930年间阿根廷立法者潜在偏好(理想点)的估计来检验我们的论点。点名数据分析表明,社会经济问题上的争议并没有促成朝鲜政权的崩溃。重要的是政治权力的分配。这些发现支持了这样一种观点,即稳定的民主要求社会中的所有主要群体都有足够大的机会掌权。
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引用次数: 1
Democracy and the Environment: The Visibility Factor 民主与环境:可见性因素
Pub Date : 2010-03-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1582299
Andrea Duwel
There are compelling theoretical arguments as to why democracy should have a positive effect on environmental performance, yet the empirical findings are mixed. These mixed results are likely in part due to the fact that the mechanism linking democracy to the environment varies based on how the characteristics of specific environmental indicators relate back to the political process. I develop a theory that explains the relationship between democracy and the environment as a function of how visible the areas of environmental policy and performance are to the public. Using cross-sectional analysis and data from the Environmental Performance Index, I show that the provision of highly visible environmental public goods that affect human health is primarily a function of a country’s level of economic development, whereas the provision of less visible environmental public goods that affect ecosystem vitality is a function of both the levels of economic development and democracy. The finding that the effect of democracy differs across different areas of environmental policy suggests that the global spread of democracy will lead to environmental improvements in some, but not all areas.
关于为什么民主应该对环境绩效产生积极影响,有令人信服的理论论据,但实证结果却喜忧参半。这些好坏参半的结果可能部分是由于将民主与环境联系起来的机制因具体环境指标的特点与政治进程的关系而异。我发展了一种理论,解释了民主与环境之间的关系,即环境政策和绩效领域对公众的可见程度。通过横断面分析和来自环境绩效指数的数据,我表明,影响人类健康的高度可见的环境公共产品的提供主要是一个国家经济发展水平的函数,而影响生态系统活力的不太可见的环境公共产品的提供是经济发展水平和民主水平的函数。民主的影响在环境政策的不同领域有所不同,这一发现表明,民主的全球传播将导致某些领域的环境改善,但不是所有领域。
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引用次数: 10
Democratization Via Elections in an African 'Narco-State'? The Case of Guinea-Bissau 非洲“毒品国家”通过选举实现民主化?几内亚比绍案例
Pub Date : 2010-02-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1553138
D. Kohnert
Recent development cooperation with Guinea-Bissau, focussing on good governance, state-building and conflict prevention, did not contribute to democratization nor to the stabilization of volatile political, military and economic structures. Both the portrayal of Guinea-Bissau as failed ‘narco state' as well as Western aid meant to stabilize this state are based on doubtful concepts. Certainly, the impact of drug trafficking could endanger democratization and state-building if continued unchecked. However, the most pressing need is not state-building, facilitated by external aid, yet poorly rooted in the social and political fabric of the country, but nation-building by national reconciliation, as a pre-condition for the creation of viable state institutions.
最近同几内亚比绍的发展合作侧重于善政、建立国家和预防冲突,但这无助于民主化,也无助于稳定动荡的政治、军事和经济结构。将几内亚比绍描绘成失败的“毒品国家”,以及旨在稳定这个国家的西方援助,都是基于令人怀疑的概念。当然,如果继续不加以制止,毒品贩运的影响可能危及民主化和国家建设。然而,最迫切的需要不是由外部援助促进的国家建设,但在该国的社会和政治结构中根基薄弱,而是通过民族和解进行国家建设,作为建立可行的国家机构的先决条件。
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引用次数: 32
A Historicised (Re)Assessment of EDSA ‘People Power’ (1986) EDSA“人民力量”的历史(再)评估(1986)
Pub Date : 2010-02-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1716572
Rommel A. Curaming, Lisandro E. Claudio
The EDSA ‘People Power’ of 1986 stands out in iconography and ideography of democratisation, both within and beyond the Philippines. Having paved the way for restoring democracy after over a decade of Marcos’s authoritarianism, conventional wisdom takes it as a critical turning point in Philippine political history. This is the idea that this paper seeks to re-assess by looking at the socio-political and discursive contexts within which it developed. Exploring two pathways to re-assessing EDSA ‘People Power’, it shows, firstly, that the extent to which the EDSA revolt may be considered as a critical conjuncture depends significantly on the assessment of, and meanings attached to, the Marcos years. In other words, that this event looms large as a critical turning point notwithstanding the ‘return to good old days’ in Philippine politics that it ushered, is a reflection of two parallel and mutually reinforcing developments: (1) the hegemony of global discourse on democratisation (2) and the strong anti-Marcos sentiments in the post-EDSA years that the segments of the elite, civil society and international players promote for their interests, both altruistic and self-serving. Secondly, this paper argues that EDSA cannot be assessed simply in terms of its immediate effects on formal economic and political structures. One has to look at democratisation process “from below”, which necessarily takes time and away from formal democratic institutions, to see the spaces it opened and the political energies it strengthened. A set of broader analytic lenses – ones that consider discursive resonances, that de-centre analysis from central state institutions, and that consider long-term changes in political culture – must be deployed in order to uncover the changes set in train by this event.
1986年的EDSA“人民力量”在菲律宾内外的民主化图像和表意学中脱颖而出。在马科斯独裁统治的十多年后,它为恢复民主铺平了道路,传统智慧将其视为菲律宾政治史上的一个关键转折点。这是本文试图通过观察其发展的社会政治和话语环境来重新评估的想法。探索重新评估EDSA“人民力量”的两条途径,它表明,首先,EDSA起义可能被认为是一个关键时刻的程度在很大程度上取决于对马科斯时代的评估和附加的意义。换句话说,尽管菲律宾政治迎来了“回到过去的好时光”,但这一事件仍然是一个关键的转折点,这反映了两种平行且相互加强的发展:(1)全球民主化话语的霸权(2)以及edsa后几年精英阶层,公民社会和国际参与者为他们的利益而促进的强烈反马科斯情绪,无论是利他主义还是自私自利。其次,本文认为,不能简单地根据其对正式经济和政治结构的直接影响来评估EDSA。人们必须“自下而上”地看待民主化进程,这必然需要时间,也需要脱离正式的民主制度,才能看到它打开的空间和加强的政治能量。为了揭示这一事件带来的变化,必须部署一套更广泛的分析镜头——那些考虑话语共鸣的镜头,那些从中央国家机构进行的去中心分析的镜头,以及那些考虑政治文化长期变化的镜头。
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引用次数: 4
Constituents, Representatives and the Dual Politics of Democratic Representation 选民、代表与民主代表制的二元政治
Pub Date : 2009-11-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1653510
Enrique Peruzzotti
The article divides as follows. Section I challenges the dominant approach to representation as an activity that largely rest on the shoulders of elected representatives to propose a relational understanding of democratic representation as resting on both active constituents and representatives. In this view, constituents’ activities are as legitimate and integral part of the practice of representation as elected representatives are. Section II analyses the two dimensions that are always present in the practice of democratic representation: a mirror and a creative one and how the latter relates to the issue of constituent and representative politics. Section III focuses on the debate about the democratic status and credentials of advocacy NGOs arguing that inherited notions of political accountability are inadequate as a conceptual tool to evaluate the role and contribution of advocacy organizations to the practice of democratic representation. The concluding sections argues for the need to redirect the debate from the issue of democratic credentials to the question of building bridging mechanisms to establish a more fluid communication between constituent and representatives that could result on a significant improvement of the degree of influence of the latter on decision-making structures.
文章分为以下几个部分。第一部分挑战了代表性的主流方法,认为这是一种主要依赖于当选代表的活动,并提出了一种对民主代表性的关系理解,认为它同时依赖于活跃的选民和代表。根据这种观点,选民的活动与民选代表一样,是代表制实践的合法和不可分割的一部分。第二节分析了民主代表制实践中始终存在的两个维度:一面镜子和一个创造性的维度,以及后者如何与组成和代议制政治问题相关联。第三节侧重于关于倡导非政府组织的民主地位和资格的辩论,认为政治责任的传统概念不足以作为评价倡导组织对民主代表实践的作用和贡献的概念工具。最后几节认为,有必要将辩论从民主证书问题转向建立桥梁机制的问题,以便在选民和代表之间建立更顺畅的沟通,从而大大提高后者对决策结构的影响程度。
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引用次数: 0
Coalitions in Multiparty System: Empirical Reflection of the Indonesian Regional Elections 多党制下的联盟:印尼地区选举的经验反思
Pub Date : 2009-05-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1400724
Ardian Maulana, Hokky Situngkir
A lot of changing in recent Indonesian political dynamics with eventual fact shows how political recruitment for legislative and executive chairs in national as well as regional levels in direct voting systems have brought the patterns of coalitions among political parties into interesting focus of observation. We evaluate the Regional Elections data held since June 2005 to September 2008 as election matrix. The matrix is then transformed into the ultrametric space yielding the hierarchical trees based on proximity on inter-party coalition. We represent the distance of coalitions among political parties based on the activity in regional elections and contrasting the findings with some nation-wide facts of the respective properties. The observations draws how Indonesian voters are failed to be segregated into any extreme political and ideological streams but the combinations among the existing and widely-recognized ones.
最近印度尼西亚政治动态的许多变化和最终的事实表明,在直接投票制度中,国家和区域各级立法和执行主席的政治征聘如何使政党之间的联盟模式成为有趣的观察焦点。我们评估自2005年6月至2008年9月举行的区域选举数据作为选举矩阵。然后将矩阵转换为超度量空间,产生基于党派间联盟的接近度的分层树。我们根据地区选举中的活动代表政党之间的联盟距离,并将调查结果与各自性质的一些全国性事实进行对比。观察结果表明,印尼选民没有被划分为任何极端的政治和意识形态,而是将现有的和广泛认可的政治和意识形态结合起来。
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引用次数: 1
The Effects of Political Competition on the Feasibility of Economic Reform 政治竞争对经济改革可行性的影响
Pub Date : 2009-03-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1357770
David Pinto
This paper explores the effects of political competition on reform feasibility. In contrast to previous models, this paper shows that desirable reform may fail even in the absence of economic losers or informational asymmetries, as a result of democracy. Even if reforms were to generate economic gains for all agents, electoral gains remain a zero sum game. This model provides insight regarding the conditions under which critical elections take place as studied in the political science literature. If there is a majority party, minority parties are able to pursue low value (which do not lead to political shifts) and high value reforms (which cause a political realignment). Intermediate value reforms are harder to enact, as the electoral cost of reform is high for the dominant party. In contrast, in highly contested political environments, only high value reforms may successfully be enacted.
本文探讨了政治竞争对改革可行性的影响。与以前的模型相比,本文表明,由于民主,即使在没有经济输家或信息不对称的情况下,理想的改革也可能失败。即使改革能够为所有参与者带来经济收益,选举收益仍然是一场零和游戏。这个模型提供了关于政治科学文献中所研究的关键选举发生的条件的见解。如果有多数党,少数党可以追求低价值(不会导致政治转变)和高价值改革(会导致政治重组)。中间价值改革更难实施,因为改革的选举成本对占主导地位的政党来说很高。相比之下,在高度竞争的政治环境中,只有高价值的改革才能成功实施。
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引用次数: 0
Anti-Corruption Commissions in the African State: Burying the Problem or Addressing the Issue? 非洲国家的反腐败委员会:掩盖问题还是解决问题?
Pub Date : 2009-01-28 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.1334286
Melissa Khemani
Endemic corruption is one the leading obstacles to political, economic and social development; corrupt acts not only undermine the rule of law but also hinder the effectiveness and sustainability of any reform programs. There is a recent trend, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, for governments to establish anti-corruption commissions - distinct, independent, national agencies charged with combating corruption. The multilateral development banks, aid agencies, and anti-corruption NGO's have all promoted the establishment of such bodies, claiming that they form an integral part of a country's National Integrity System ("NIS"). The recent UN Convention Against Corruption (UNCAC) also makes specific provision for their establishment. However, anti-corruption commissions are costly to establish and to effectively run. Furthermore, they have often attracted criticism for being ineffective and politicized. The purpose of the paper is to undertake an institutional analysis of the value-added that independent anti-corruption bodies provide in an anti-corruption strategy, and identify the various models and factors that may make such bodies effective in the African state. This paper addresses the experiences of three established anti-corruption commissions in Africa, and assesses why they have proven to be successful or weak. These include:- Botswana's Directorate for Corruption and Economic Crime (DCEC)- Nigeria's Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC)- Kenya's Anti-Corruption Commission (KACC)The general arguments that frame the paper are that such bodies can play a critical role in the anti-corruption strategies of African states, provided they have certain structures and functions. Another objective of this paper is to inform those African states with newly established anti-corruption commissions or those that are in the process of establishing anti-corruption commissions, with some best practice guidelines.
地方性腐败是政治、经济和社会发展的主要障碍之一;腐败行为不仅破坏法治,而且阻碍任何改革方案的有效性和可持续性。最近出现了一种趋势,特别是在撒哈拉以南的非洲地区,各国政府建立了反腐败委员会——专门负责打击腐败的独立的国家机构。多边开发银行、援助机构和反腐败非政府组织都在推动建立这样的机构,声称它们是一个国家国家廉政体系(NIS)的组成部分。最近的《联合国反腐败公约》(UNCAC)也对设立这些机构作出了具体规定。然而,反腐败委员会的建立和有效运作成本高昂。此外,它们经常因效率低下和政治化而受到批评。本文的目的是对独立反腐败机构在反腐败战略中提供的增值进行制度分析,并确定可能使此类机构在非洲国家有效的各种模型和因素。本文阐述了非洲三个已建立的反腐败委员会的经验,并评估了为什么它们被证明是成功的或薄弱的。这些机构包括:-博茨瓦纳的腐败和经济犯罪局(DCEC)-尼日利亚的经济和金融犯罪委员会(EFCC)-肯尼亚的反腐败委员会(KACC)。本文的主要论点是,这些机构可以在非洲国家的反腐败战略中发挥关键作用,只要它们具有一定的结构和功能。本文的另一个目的是向那些新成立反腐败委员会或正在建立反腐败委员会的非洲国家提供一些最佳实践指南。
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引用次数: 7
Civilising Globalism: Transnational Norm-Building Networks - A Research Programme 文明化的全球主义:跨国规范构建网络——一个研究项目
Pub Date : 2008-10-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1288049
Ulrich Mückenberger
Decentralised, self-organised cross-border activities are increasingly shaping global policymaking. While state actors have lost ground, policy and economic networks have emerged as key actors, transforming international relations as well as national spheres. Academic discourse is following their activity, often focusing on "advocacy networks" and on the role of transnational actors within the transformation of the world economy and world polity. In contrast to these research activities, the approach proposed here extends the scope of inquiry to include the role of transnational networks in norm-building and norm-implementation. The networks under scrutiny here do not confine themselves to the articulation of particular interests, the resolution of particular conflicts, or compliance with legal norms. It is presumed here that a variety of networks which are fundamentally concerned with the creation of norms have emerged. The predominance of the nation-state, one of the main characteristics of modern democratic thinking, has eroded to the point where the fundamental nexus of voice (democratic participation) and entitlement (legal and social rights and duties) has been weakened or even broken. We presume that this decentration has fundamentally changed the option of voice as one of the most important responses by citizens to crisis and change. This comes to the fore with the emergence and effectiveness of transnational norm-building networks. The article develops a research programme, the outcome of which will shed light on this new resource for the development of a democratised world polity.
分散的、自我组织的跨境活动正日益影响着全球政策制定。虽然国家行为体失去了地位,但政策和经济网络已成为关键行为体,改变了国际关系和国家领域。学术论述跟随他们的活动,往往侧重于“宣传网络”和跨国行动者在世界经济和世界政治变革中的作用。与这些研究活动相反,这里提出的方法扩大了调查的范围,包括跨国网络在建立和执行规范方面的作用。这里审查的网络并不局限于特定利益的表达、特定冲突的解决或对法律规范的遵守。这里假定已经出现了从根本上与规范的创造有关的各种网络。作为现代民主思想的主要特征之一,民族国家的主导地位已经受到侵蚀,以至于声音(民主参与)和权利(法律和社会权利和义务)的基本联系已经被削弱甚至破坏。我们认为,这种权力下放从根本上改变了作为公民对危机和变革最重要的反应之一的声音选择。这一点随着跨国规范建设网络的出现和有效性而凸显出来。这篇文章提出了一个研究方案,其结果将阐明这一发展民主化世界政体的新资源。
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引用次数: 23
Inequality and Democratization 不平等与民主化
Pub Date : 2008-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1144087
Ben W. Ansell, David J. Samuels
The impact of economic development on democratization has long concerned social scientists, with prominent recent research focusing on the effects of economic inequality and factor specificity. Boix (2003) suggests that democratization is likelier when economic equality is high and factor-specificity is low. Acemoglu and Robinson (2006) argue that democratization is more likely when inequality is at middling levels. Both arguments assume that democratization is a function of autocratic elites' relative fear of the costs of redistribution at different levels of inequality. Drawing on contractarian political theory, we suggest that democratization is not about demands for redistribution from the elite; it is about demands for protection from the state. This alternative theoretical approach generates different predictions about the relationship between inequality and democratization, and suggests that land and income inequality impact democratization differently. Autocracies with unequal land distribution are less likely to democratize, while autocracies with substantial income inequality are more likely to democratize.
经济发展对民主化的影响长期以来一直是社会科学家关注的问题,最近的突出研究集中在经济不平等和因素特异性的影响上。Boix(2003)认为,当经济平等程度高而要素特异性低时,民主化的可能性更大。Acemoglu和Robinson(2006)认为,当不平等处于中等水平时,民主化更有可能发生。两种观点都假设,民主化是专制精英对不同不平等程度的再分配成本的相对恐惧的结果。根据契约主义政治理论,我们认为民主化并不是要求精英阶层进行再分配;它是关于对国家保护的要求。这种替代性的理论方法对不平等与民主化之间的关系产生了不同的预测,并表明土地和收入不平等对民主化的影响不同。土地分配不平等的专制国家不太可能民主化,而收入严重不平等的专制国家更有可能民主化。
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引用次数: 114
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