In a New Keynesian model with capital adjustment costs and exogenous sources of policy tradeoffs central banks should not respond to stock price movements; a policy that focuses on stabilizing inflation is close to optimal. However, a numerical procedure that solves for the optimal Taylor-type rule that responds to stock prices by using the typical approach adopted by the extant literature, which consists in searching a small multi-dimensional interval for desirable policy reactions to inflation, output and stock prices, can easily prescribe all possible qualitative reactions to stock prices. Therefore, the model highlights some pitfalls in a numerical study of stock prices and monetary policy that can explain and reconcile the conflicting policy prescriptions found in the literature.
{"title":"Reassessing the Role of Stock Prices in the Conduct of Monetary Policy","authors":"Pierlauro Lopez","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2194669","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2194669","url":null,"abstract":"In a New Keynesian model with capital adjustment costs and exogenous sources of policy tradeoffs central banks should not respond to stock price movements; a policy that focuses on stabilizing inflation is close to optimal. However, a numerical procedure that solves for the optimal Taylor-type rule that responds to stock prices by using the typical approach adopted by the extant literature, which consists in searching a small multi-dimensional interval for desirable policy reactions to inflation, output and stock prices, can easily prescribe all possible qualitative reactions to stock prices. Therefore, the model highlights some pitfalls in a numerical study of stock prices and monetary policy that can explain and reconcile the conflicting policy prescriptions found in the literature.","PeriodicalId":127579,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian (Topic)","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124759883","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Chapter Six and its Appendix deal in some detail with the way Keynes is defining income, savings and investment in the General Theory while the appendix to Chapter 6 goes into detail on user cost. His concept of user cost at one point sparked a certain amount of controversy among Keynesians but has since virtually been forgotten. It is of interest to us because user cost is the place where Keynes sees firms taking account of the future consequences of their current production decisions. The General Theory is a theory of the short run, but firms’ cost curves, which are key to many short run decisions, contain a forward looking element. Chapter 7 returns to the concepts of saving and investment, relates Keynes’ definitions to those used by others (including his own from the Treatise) and relates aggregate investment, which refers to additions to physical capital stock, to the way the term is often used at the micro level, in the sense of investment in financial assets.
{"title":"Lectures on John Maynard Keynes' General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (5): Chapter 6, The Definition of Income, Saving and Investment; Appendix to Chapter 6, Appendix on User Cost; Chapter 7, The Meaning of Saving and Investment Further Considered","authors":"B. Ferguson","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2313441","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2313441","url":null,"abstract":"Chapter Six and its Appendix deal in some detail with the way Keynes is defining income, savings and investment in the General Theory while the appendix to Chapter 6 goes into detail on user cost. His concept of user cost at one point sparked a certain amount of controversy among Keynesians but has since virtually been forgotten. It is of interest to us because user cost is the place where Keynes sees firms taking account of the future consequences of their current production decisions. The General Theory is a theory of the short run, but firms’ cost curves, which are key to many short run decisions, contain a forward looking element. Chapter 7 returns to the concepts of saving and investment, relates Keynes’ definitions to those used by others (including his own from the Treatise) and relates aggregate investment, which refers to additions to physical capital stock, to the way the term is often used at the micro level, in the sense of investment in financial assets.","PeriodicalId":127579,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian (Topic)","volume":"76 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-07-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122524186","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper puts John Maynard Keynes’ "The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money" into its historical context, both in terms of economic history and in terms of the history of economics. It discusses the post-World War I period as background to the General Theory, looks at the influence of other economists of the period on the evolution of Keynes’ thought and considers the parallels between the post-World War period and the post-Napoleonic War period, when Ricardo and Malthus were debating issues very similar to the ones with which Keynes was wrestling.
{"title":"Lectures on John Maynard Keynes’ General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1): Chapter One, Background and Historical Setting","authors":"B. Ferguson","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2312707","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2312707","url":null,"abstract":"This paper puts John Maynard Keynes’ \"The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money\" into its historical context, both in terms of economic history and in terms of the history of economics. It discusses the post-World War I period as background to the General Theory, looks at the influence of other economists of the period on the evolution of Keynes’ thought and considers the parallels between the post-World War period and the post-Napoleonic War period, when Ricardo and Malthus were debating issues very similar to the ones with which Keynes was wrestling.","PeriodicalId":127579,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian (Topic)","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133592176","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Boris Vujčič, Milan Deskar-Škrbić, Zvonimir Ratkovski, Jurica Zrnc
The aim of this paper is to quantify the effects of changes in functional income distribution on selected macroeconomic variables in Croatia in period from 2000-2012. We use structural VAR approach with identification scheme based on a priori restrictions that are derived from theoretical framework of Post-Keynesian macroeconomic model. Our main hypothesis, which is confirmed in the empirical analysis, is that the accumulation of capital in Croatia was primarily determined by income from labor, i.e. that Croatia had wage-led accumulation. We also found that labor market dynamics was dominantly influenced by demand side shocks and that positive effects of the rise in exports, resulting from the gain in competitiveness (after reducing wage share in income) outweigh negative effects of weaker demand on the capacity utilization. So in our opinion export share increase should become policy priority, as domestic demand is currently constrained by high private and public debt levels. To the extent that increase in exports might require decline in the relative share of labor, negative impact on the investments in non-tradable sector would need to be offset with higher investments in tradable sector of Croatian economy.
{"title":"Functional Distribution of Income and Economic Activity in Croatia: Post-Keynesian Approach","authors":"Boris Vujčič, Milan Deskar-Škrbić, Zvonimir Ratkovski, Jurica Zrnc","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2226906","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2226906","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of this paper is to quantify the effects of changes in functional income distribution on selected macroeconomic variables in Croatia in period from 2000-2012. We use structural VAR approach with identification scheme based on a priori restrictions that are derived from theoretical framework of Post-Keynesian macroeconomic model. Our main hypothesis, which is confirmed in the empirical analysis, is that the accumulation of capital in Croatia was primarily determined by income from labor, i.e. that Croatia had wage-led accumulation. We also found that labor market dynamics was dominantly influenced by demand side shocks and that positive effects of the rise in exports, resulting from the gain in competitiveness (after reducing wage share in income) outweigh negative effects of weaker demand on the capacity utilization. So in our opinion export share increase should become policy priority, as domestic demand is currently constrained by high private and public debt levels. To the extent that increase in exports might require decline in the relative share of labor, negative impact on the investments in non-tradable sector would need to be offset with higher investments in tradable sector of Croatian economy.","PeriodicalId":127579,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian (Topic)","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132985196","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Phillips and Keynes had very different ideas on the relationship between unemployment and inflation. While the former saw a direct trade-off between the two, the latter saw an indirect cyclical relationship intermediated by liquidity preference. A horserace between mathematical specifications of the two models finds that Keynes’ model more accurately models inflation even during the Bretton Woods period and that it model continues to model inflation today with significant accuracy. This indicates that inflation is, contrary to the implications of the Phillips curve, a monetary phenomenon. An analysis of Keynes’ model illuminates improved liquidity management in the U.S. economy in recent decades and illustrates problems of monetary policy with near-zero interest rates.
{"title":"Keynes and the Phillips Curve: A Suggested Reinterpretation","authors":"H. Anderson","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2223244","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2223244","url":null,"abstract":"Phillips and Keynes had very different ideas on the relationship between unemployment and inflation. While the former saw a direct trade-off between the two, the latter saw an indirect cyclical relationship intermediated by liquidity preference. A horserace between mathematical specifications of the two models finds that Keynes’ model more accurately models inflation even during the Bretton Woods period and that it model continues to model inflation today with significant accuracy. This indicates that inflation is, contrary to the implications of the Phillips curve, a monetary phenomenon. An analysis of Keynes’ model illuminates improved liquidity management in the U.S. economy in recent decades and illustrates problems of monetary policy with near-zero interest rates.","PeriodicalId":127579,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-02-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133405555","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper, we present a novel framework for macroeconomic analysis, which tries to incorporate recent theoretical developments into a model describing an open economy. The model includes a monetary policy rule instead of the LM function together with an aggregate supply function derived from the Phillips curve, and is later extended to describe the case of a monetary union. This new approach should be useful for teaching purposes.
{"title":"Open Economy Keynesian Macroeconomics Without the LM Curve","authors":"O. Bajo‐Rubio, C. Díaz-Roldán","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2241850","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2241850","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we present a novel framework for macroeconomic analysis, which tries to incorporate recent theoretical developments into a model describing an open economy. The model includes a monetary policy rule instead of the LM function together with an aggregate supply function derived from the Phillips curve, and is later extended to describe the case of a monetary union. This new approach should be useful for teaching purposes.","PeriodicalId":127579,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian (Topic)","volume":"24 23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128459714","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper we will discuss the strength (austerity does not work) and the weakness (Quantitative Easing) of Keynesian economics. We will describe the ergodic hypothesis which plays a critical role in Keynesian economics. We will also try to provide an answer to the question: What role does people, debt and ensemble and time averages play in macroeconomics? The conclusion of the paper is that it was a mistake to abandon the gold standard (which Keynes argued for) because it gave price stability i.e. no fiat money.
{"title":"A Simple Comment on Keynesian Economics","authors":"M. Davidsson","doi":"10.5296/JSR.V4I1.3168","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5296/JSR.V4I1.3168","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we will discuss the strength (austerity does not work) and the weakness (Quantitative Easing) of Keynesian economics. We will describe the ergodic hypothesis which plays a critical role in Keynesian economics. We will also try to provide an answer to the question: What role does people, debt and ensemble and time averages play in macroeconomics? The conclusion of the paper is that it was a mistake to abandon the gold standard (which Keynes argued for) because it gave price stability i.e. no fiat money.","PeriodicalId":127579,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian (Topic)","volume":"05 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131051162","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I investigate whether demand growth and productivity growth in Switzerland have benefitted from the wage moderation that set in at the beginning of the 1990s in this country. The results suggest that the Swiss demand regime is profit-led while the productivity regime is wage-led. This means on the one hand that wage moderation has added almost one Percentage Point to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth after 1990. On the other hand, it has also contributed to the drop in productivity growth. The latter effect, however, is weak.
{"title":"Distribution and Growth in Demand and Productivity in Switzerland (1950-2010)","authors":"Jochen Hartwig","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2190916","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2190916","url":null,"abstract":"I investigate whether demand growth and productivity growth in Switzerland have benefitted from the wage moderation that set in at the beginning of the 1990s in this country. The results suggest that the Swiss demand regime is profit-led while the productivity regime is wage-led. This means on the one hand that wage moderation has added almost one Percentage Point to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth after 1990. On the other hand, it has also contributed to the drop in productivity growth. The latter effect, however, is weak.","PeriodicalId":127579,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129627962","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Charles T. Carlstrom, Timothy S. Fuerst, Matthias O. Paustian
Recent monetary policy experience suggests a simple diagnostic for models of monetary non-neutrality. Suppose the central bank pegs the nominal interest rate below steady state for a reasonably short period of time. Familiar intuition suggests that this should be modestly inflationary, and a reasonable model should deliver such a prediction. We pursue this simple diagnostic in several variants of the familiar Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) model. Some variants of the model produce counterintuitive inflation reversals where the effect of the interest rate peg can switch from highly inflationary to highly deflationary for only modest changes in the length of the interest rate peg. Curiously, this unusual behavior does not arise in a sticky information model of the Phillips curve.
{"title":"Inflation and Output in New Keynesian Models with a Transient Interest Rate Peg","authors":"Charles T. Carlstrom, Timothy S. Fuerst, Matthias O. Paustian","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2114288","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2114288","url":null,"abstract":"Recent monetary policy experience suggests a simple diagnostic for models of monetary non-neutrality. Suppose the central bank pegs the nominal interest rate below steady state for a reasonably short period of time. Familiar intuition suggests that this should be modestly inflationary, and a reasonable model should deliver such a prediction. We pursue this simple diagnostic in several variants of the familiar Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) model. Some variants of the model produce counterintuitive inflation reversals where the effect of the interest rate peg can switch from highly inflationary to highly deflationary for only modest changes in the length of the interest rate peg. Curiously, this unusual behavior does not arise in a sticky information model of the Phillips curve.","PeriodicalId":127579,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian (Topic)","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125769462","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008 witnessed a marked contraction in US consumption spending that had hitherto been boosted by historically high levels of household debt-financing. These events question the validity of conventional models of consumption based on the life-cycle hypothesis, with its benign view of debt as a neutral instrument of optimal intertemporal expenditure smoothing. This paper develops an alternative account of consumption spending based on the Keynesian relative income hypothesis, which claims that current income, its distribution, household borrowing, and household indebtedness all affect current consumption. The paper then provides an empirical investigation of US consumption spending since the 1960s. The results of this inquiry are not compatible with the life-cycle hypothesis, but are congruent with our alternative Keynesian theory of consumption based on the relative income hypothesis.
{"title":"Aggregate Consumption and Debt Accumulation: An Empirical Examination of US Household Behavior","authors":"Yun K. Kim, M. Setterfield, Y. Mei","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2094703","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2094703","url":null,"abstract":"The outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008 witnessed a marked contraction in US consumption spending that had hitherto been boosted by historically high levels of household debt-financing. These events question the validity of conventional models of consumption based on the life-cycle hypothesis, with its benign view of debt as a neutral instrument of optimal intertemporal expenditure smoothing. This paper develops an alternative account of consumption spending based on the Keynesian relative income hypothesis, which claims that current income, its distribution, household borrowing, and household indebtedness all affect current consumption. The paper then provides an empirical investigation of US consumption spending since the 1960s. The results of this inquiry are not compatible with the life-cycle hypothesis, but are congruent with our alternative Keynesian theory of consumption based on the relative income hypothesis.","PeriodicalId":127579,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian (Topic)","volume":"66 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128369003","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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