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Social Preferences in Inter-Group Conflict 群体冲突中的社会偏好
Pub Date : 2017-09-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3043163
Robert Böhm, Jürgen Fleiß, Robert Rybnicek
Identifying who engages in inter-group conflict – and if they do so why – may help to predict and potentially prevent inter-group conflicts. Yet, little is known about the heterogeneity of individuals’ social preferences in inter-group conflict. We derive a typology and measure of group-dependent social preferences from a social preference model. We gather representative, incentivized field data before and after the heated 2016 Austrian presidential election. We find considerable heterogeneity in individuals’ social preferences. Out-group spitefulness is associated with higher age and group identity as well as lower education and in-group prosociality. Group-dependent social preferences predict voting decisions.
确定谁参与了群体间冲突——如果他们这样做了,为什么会这样做——可能有助于预测和潜在地预防群体间冲突。然而,人们对群体间冲突中个体社会偏好的异质性知之甚少。我们从社会偏好模型中推导出群体依赖社会偏好的类型学和度量。我们在2016年激烈的奥地利总统选举前后收集了有代表性的、有激励的现场数据。我们发现个人的社会偏好存在相当大的异质性。群体外的恶意行为与较高的年龄和群体认同、较低的教育水平和群体内的亲社会性有关。群体依赖的社会偏好可以预测投票决定。
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引用次数: 4
Импортозамещение Товаров Инвестиционного Назначения в России (Import Substitution of Investment Goods in Russia) ИмпортозамещениеТоваровИнвестиционногоНазначениявРоссии(在俄罗斯投资货物的进口替代)
Pub Date : 2017-06-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2983756
Georgy Idrisov, A. Kaukin, P. Pavlov
Russian Abstract: Целью работы является проверка гипотез о влиянии реального эффективного обменного курса рубля, уровня предпринимательской уверенности, цен на импортные и отечественные аналоги, доходов (валовой добавленной стоимости/выручки) российской промышленности, секторальных санкций ЕС и США на показатели инвестиционной динамики РФ на различных временных интервалах. Подробно исследуются факторы спроса российских предприятий на импорт инвестиционных товаров. English Abstract: The main purpose of the research is to test hypotheses about the impact of the real effective exchange rate, the level of business confidence, the prices of imported and domestic substitute investment goods, income (gross value added/revenue) of Russian industry, the EU and US sectoral sanctions on indicators of investment dynamics in Russia at different time intervals. Factors of demand of Russian companies on the import of capital goods were researched in detail.
俄文摘要:本文旨在检验关于卢布实际有效汇率、企业家信心水平、进口和国内同类产品价格、俄罗斯工业收入(总附加值/收入)、欧盟和美国的行业制裁在不同时间间隔内对俄罗斯联邦投资动态指标的影响的假设。对俄罗斯企业进口投资产品的需求因素进行了详细研究。 英文摘要:研究的主要目的是检验关于实际有效汇率、商业信心水平、进口和国内替代投资品价格、俄罗斯工业收入(总附加值/收入)、欧盟和美国部门制裁在不同时间间隔内对俄罗斯投资动态指标的影响的假设。对俄罗斯企业进口资本货物的需求因素进行了详细研究。
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引用次数: 0
Justicia con Intimidación: El Caso de Las FARC (Justice with Intimidation: The Case of the FARC) 哥伦比亚革命武装力量的正义与恐吓:哥伦比亚革命武装力量的案例
Pub Date : 2017-05-22 DOI: 10.18601/01245996.V19N36.05
Gonzalo Cataño
Este ensayo expone las normas de las FARC y de su administracion de justicia, tal como aparecen en textos publicados bajo los titulos de estatuto, reglamento, normas, programas, plataformas y manuales de convivencia". A esos materiales se sumo un buen numero de entrevistas con desmovilizados -hombres y mujeres de diversas edades- para captar su vision de los procesos judiciales, cuya caracteristica es la intimidacion: el empleo de la amenaza y el ultimatum, que provocan temor, ansiedad y zozobra
这篇文章阐述了哥伦比亚革命武装力量及其司法行政的规则,这些规则出现在以《法令、条例、规则、程序、平台和共存手册》为名出版的文本中。除了这些材料外,还对不同年龄的男女复员人员进行了大量采访,以了解他们对司法程序的看法,司法程序的特点是恐吓:使用威胁和最后通牒,引起恐惧、焦虑和不安。
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引用次数: 4
Communication, Censorship, and Coordination 沟通、审查和协调
Pub Date : 2017-05-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2879020
Tetsuya Hoshino
We study a coordination game of incomplete information in which only a coordinated attack would succeed in toppling a regime. Without communication, efficient coordination is impossible in this environment. We study how communication between citizens can facilitate efficient coordination. We model communication that is frequent, non-binding, and may be censored (detected and punished) by the regime. Our main result is that communication with censorship is sufficient for almost efficient coordination, and perhaps surprisingly, it is also necessary.
我们研究了一个不完全信息的协调博弈,其中只有协调攻击才能成功地推翻一个政权。在这种环境下,没有沟通,就不可能有高效的协调。我们研究公民之间的沟通如何促进有效的协调。我们模拟了频繁的、不具约束力的、可能被政权审查(发现和惩罚)的交流。我们的主要结果是,与审查机构的沟通足以实现几乎有效的协调,也许令人惊讶的是,这也是必要的。
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引用次数: 0
‘Tomato War’ with Turkey: Interim Results 与土耳其的“番茄大战”:中期结果
Pub Date : 2017-04-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2958323
N. Shagaida
On 15 March, 2017 Russia was barred from importing products with zero duty rates, including grain, to Turkey, which became the next episode of “tomato war” with this country. This “war” vacated the niche of $0.5 billion in Russia for local tomato and cucumber producers, but also created problems for Russia’s exports of grain, vegetable oil, and food industry waste for fodder to Turkey amounting to $1.3–1.5 billion.
2017年3月15日,俄罗斯被禁止向土耳其进口包括谷物在内的零关税产品,这成为了与土耳其“番茄大战”的下一集。这场“战争”为俄罗斯当地的番茄和黄瓜生产商腾出了5亿美元的利基市场,但也给俄罗斯向土耳其出口的粮食、植物油和食品工业废料造成了问题,价值达13 - 15亿美元。
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引用次数: 0
The Rights-Focused, Interests-Focused Disputant: Empathy Gaps in Disputing Strategy 以权利为中心、以利益为中心的争论者:争论策略中的移情缺失
Pub Date : 2017-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2955269
Brian C. Gunia, Erik G. Helzer
Decades of negotiation research suggest that deal-making negotiators and disputants achieve the best outcomes when they focus extensively on interests. However, research on whether and how they can actually do that is much more voluminous for deal-making negotiations than disputes. Integrating research on disputes and empathy gaps, we examine that possibility that disputants (naturally in a “hot state”) may have a distinctly hard time implementing their “cold state” intentions to focus on interests. After validating the importance of an interests focus in disputes, our second study documents the difficulty of implementing interest-focused intentions in disputes. Finally, we describe a third, planned study examining an intervention to help disputants implement their interest-focused intentions. These studies highlight a potential disconnect between disputants’ intentions and behavior, suggesting that disputing research may benefit from a new and unique set of theoretical assumptions.
几十年的谈判研究表明,当达成协议的谈判者和争论者广泛关注利益时,他们会取得最好的结果。然而,关于他们是否以及如何真正做到这一点的研究,在交易谈判中要比在争端中多得多。整合对争议和同理心差距的研究,我们研究了争议者(自然处于“热状态”)可能在实施其“冷状态”意图以关注利益方面明显困难的可能性。在验证了利益焦点在争议中的重要性之后,我们的第二项研究记录了在争议中实施利益焦点意图的困难。最后,我们描述了第三项有计划的研究,该研究考察了一种干预措施,以帮助争议者实现以利益为中心的意图。这些研究强调了争论者的意图和行为之间的潜在脱节,表明争论研究可能受益于一套新的、独特的理论假设。
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引用次数: 0
A Study of the Triggers of Conflict and Emotional Reactions 冲突触发因素与情绪反应的研究
Pub Date : 2017-03-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2943699
Michael Caldara, Michael McBride, M. McCarter, Roman M. Sheremeta
We study three triggers of conflict and explore their resultant emotional reactions in a laboratory experiment. Economists suggest that the primary trigger of conflict is monetary incentives. Social psychologists suggest that conflicts are often triggered by fear. Finally, evolutionary biologists suggest that a third trigger is uncertainty about opponent’s desire to cause harm. Consistent with the predictions from economics, social psychology, and evolutionary biology, we find that conflict originates from all three triggers. The three triggers differently impact the frequency of conflict, but not the intensity. Also, we find that the frequency and intensity of conflict decrease positive emotions and increase negative emotions, and that conflict impacts negative emotions more than positive emotions.
我们研究了冲突的三种触发因素,并在实验室实验中探讨了它们产生的情绪反应。经济学家认为,引发冲突的主要因素是金钱激励。社会心理学家认为,冲突往往是由恐惧引发的。最后,进化生物学家认为,第三个触发因素是对对手造成伤害的欲望的不确定性。与经济学、社会心理学和进化生物学的预测一致,我们发现冲突源于这三种触发因素。这三种触发因素对冲突的频率有不同的影响,但对冲突的强度没有影响。此外,我们发现冲突的频率和强度降低了积极情绪,增加了消极情绪,冲突对消极情绪的影响大于积极情绪。
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引用次数: 10
Economic Diplomacy in the Innovation Global Value Chains as the National Security Providing Strategy Component 创新全球价值链中的经济外交:国家安全保障战略的组成部分
Pub Date : 2017-03-20 DOI: 10.22178/POS.20-3
V. Omelyanenko
The article deals with the analyzes of economic diplomacy application in the area of innovations. The strategy of economic diplomacy by improving the efficiency in global value chain participation was considered. The main effects of commercial diplomacy using in the innovation area were identified. The world experience using economic diplomacy in the innovation sphere was considered.
本文对经济外交在创新领域的应用进行了分析。提出了提高参与全球价值链效率的经济外交战略。确定了商业外交在创新领域的主要作用。审议了在创新领域运用经济外交的世界经验。
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引用次数: 0
The Geography of Natural Resources, Ethnic Inequality and Development 自然资源地理学、民族不平等与发展
Pub Date : 2017-01-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2917209
Christian Lessmann, Arne Steinkraus
We study whether the spatial distribution of natural resources across different ethnic groups within countries impede spatial inequality, national economic performance, and the incidence of armed conflict. By providing a theoretical rent-seeking model and analysing a set of geocoded data for mines, night-time light emissions, local populations and ethnic homelands, we show that the distribution of resources is a major driving factor of ethnic income inequality and, thus, induces rent-seeking behaviour. Consequently, we extend the perspective of the resource curse to explain cross-country differences in economic performance and the onset of civil conflicts. We show that the inequality in the spatial distribution of resource endowments within countries drives the curse of natural resources, not the resources per se.
我们研究了国家内部不同民族间自然资源的空间分布是否会阻碍空间不平等、国家经济表现和武装冲突的发生。通过提供一个理论寻租模型,并分析一组关于矿山、夜间灯光排放、当地人口和民族家园的地理编码数据,我们表明,资源分配是民族收入不平等的主要驱动因素,因此,诱发寻租行为。因此,我们扩展了资源诅咒的视角来解释经济表现的跨国差异和国内冲突的发生。我们表明,国家内部资源禀赋空间分布的不平等导致了自然资源的诅咒,而不是资源本身。
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引用次数: 6
Economic Shocks and Varieties of Conflict: Global Prices, Real Income and Local Violence in Africa 经济冲击和各种冲突:全球价格、实际收入和非洲的地方暴力
Pub Date : 2016-10-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2776263
Eoin F. McGuirk, M. Burke
Do economic shocks cause civil conflict? Evidence at the country level is ambiguous. We study the impact of plausibly exogenous shocks to world food prices on civil conflict in Africa using panel data at the level of a 0.5 degree grid cell. We find that higher prices lead to fewer civil conflict battles in cells that produce food, and more civil conflict battles in cells that consume food. We interpret this as evidence that negative income shocks cause civil conflict, as rising prices increase income for producers and decrease income for consumers in real terms. The result is consistent with a model that allows for a distinction between two varieties of conflict. In food-producing cells, higher prices reduce civil conflict battles over the control of territory (what we call "factor conflict") and increase smaller-scale conflict over the appropriation of surplus ("output conflict"). This difference arises because higher prices raise the opportunity cost of soldiering for producers, while also inducing net consumers to appropriate increasingly valuable surplus as their real wages fall. In food-consuming cells, higher prices increase both forms of conflict, as poor consumers turn to soldiering and appropriation in order to maintain a minimum consumption target. We corroborate the model's predictions on output conflict using both cell-level data on violence and looting and geocoded survey data on theft and physical assault. Ignoring distinctions between consumer and producer effects leads to attenuated estimates. Projected price changes from 2010-2050 are expected to substantially increase both forms of conflict.
经济冲击会导致国内冲突吗?国家层面的证据是模糊的。我们利用0.5度网格单元水平的面板数据,研究了世界粮食价格可能出现的外生冲击对非洲国内冲突的影响。我们发现更高的价格导致生产食物的细胞内部冲突减少,而消耗食物的细胞内部冲突增加。我们将此解释为负收入冲击导致国内冲突的证据,因为价格上涨增加了生产者的收入,减少了消费者的实际收入。结果与一个模型一致,该模型允许区分两种类型的冲突。在粮食生产单元中,较高的价格减少了争夺领土控制权的内部冲突(我们称之为“要素冲突”),并增加了争夺剩余资金的小规模冲突(“产出冲突”)。之所以会出现这种差异,是因为更高的价格提高了生产者参军的机会成本,同时也诱使净消费者在实际工资下降时占用越来越有价值的剩余。在食品消费领域,价格上涨加剧了这两种形式的冲突,因为贫穷的消费者为了维持最低消费目标而转向“霸占”和“挪用”。我们使用细胞层面的暴力和抢劫数据以及盗窃和人身攻击的地理编码调查数据来证实模型对输出冲突的预测。忽略消费者效应和生产者效应之间的区别会导致估计的衰减。预计2010年至2050年的价格变化将大大增加这两种形式的冲突。
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引用次数: 4
期刊
ERN: Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances (Topic)
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