Yasmin Abdelkarim, Tagwa Musa, Mohamed S. Challiwala, Tala Katbeh, Hanif Choudhury, Mahmoud El-Halwagi, Nimir O. Elbashir
The aviation sector's dependence on high-energy-density fuels presents a challenge for decarbonization. This study evaluates the economic and environmental feasibility of retrofitting a gas-to-liquid (GTL) plant for low carbon aviation fuel (LCAF) production using solar electrification, an advanced reformer unit (CARGEN), and a hybrid configuration integrating both. The solar scenario achieved a 30% reduction in indirect emissions, lowering carbon intensity (CI) from 554.3 to 390.8 g CO2 eq/bbl, but remains economically unviable without carbon credits above $185/t. The CARGEN retrofit, which recycles CO2 into 2743 t/day multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs), reverses net emissions and maintains strong profitability at moderate natural gas (NG) prices. The hybrid scenario achieved a net-negative total CI of −138.9 g CO2 eq/bbl, surpassing Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) targets and emerging as the most effective decarbonization strategy. Techno-economic analysis revealed that the LCAF production costs are highly sensitive to NG price fluctuations. At $3.36/MMBtu, the levelized cost of fuel (LCOF) ranges from $76.1/bbl (base case) to $257.8/bbl (hybrid). The hybrid scenario, despite higher capital expenditure (CAPEX) and operating expenditure (OPEX), remains the most viable long-term strategy, ensuring economic resilience through stable CO2 reduction costs and diversified revenue streams. However, at $7/MMBtu, its payback period exceeds 12 years under the $15/kg MWCNT pricing assumption and the highest carbon credit of $185/t, highlighting the need for policy incentives to ensure commercial scalability. This study presents a scalable model for decarbonizing aviation fuel production, aligning with global sustainability goals by integrating renewable energy and advanced CO2 utilization technologies.
航空业对高能量密度燃料的依赖对脱碳提出了挑战。本研究评估了利用太阳能电气化、先进转化装置(CARGEN)和将两者整合在一起的混合配置改造气转液(GTL)工厂以生产低碳航空燃料(LCAF)的经济和环境可行性。太阳能方案实现了30%的间接排放减少,将碳强度(CI)从554.3 g CO2当量/桶降低到390.8 g CO2当量/桶,但如果碳信用额不超过185美元/吨,在经济上仍然不可行。CARGEN改造将二氧化碳回收为2743吨/天的多壁碳纳米管(MWCNTs),扭转了净排放,并在天然气(NG)价格适中的情况下保持了强劲的盈利能力。混合方案实现了- 138.9 g CO2当量/桶的净负总CI,超过了国际航空碳抵消和减排计划(CORSIA)的目标,成为最有效的脱碳策略。技术经济分析表明,LCAF生产成本对天然气价格波动高度敏感。在3.36美元/百万英热时,燃料平准化成本(LCOF)从76.1美元/桶(基本工况)到257.8美元/桶(混合工况)不等。尽管资本支出(CAPEX)和运营支出(OPEX)较高,但混合方案仍然是最可行的长期战略,通过稳定的二氧化碳减排成本和多样化的收入来源确保经济弹性。然而,在每公斤15美元的MWCNT定价假设和最高185美元/吨的碳信用下,其7美元/MMBtu的投资回收期超过12年,这突出了政策激励以确保商业可扩展性的必要性。本研究提出了一个可扩展的航空燃料生产脱碳模型,通过整合可再生能源和先进的二氧化碳利用技术,与全球可持续发展目标保持一致。
{"title":"Retrofitting Low Carbon Aviation Fuels Processes From Natural Gas to Renewables Energy-Based Systems","authors":"Yasmin Abdelkarim, Tagwa Musa, Mohamed S. Challiwala, Tala Katbeh, Hanif Choudhury, Mahmoud El-Halwagi, Nimir O. Elbashir","doi":"10.1002/ghg.2340","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ghg.2340","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The aviation sector's dependence on high-energy-density fuels presents a challenge for decarbonization. This study evaluates the economic and environmental feasibility of retrofitting a gas-to-liquid (GTL) plant for low carbon aviation fuel (LCAF) production using solar electrification, an advanced reformer unit (CARGEN), and a hybrid configuration integrating both. The solar scenario achieved a 30% reduction in indirect emissions, lowering carbon intensity (CI) from 554.3 to 390.8 g CO<sub>2</sub> eq/bbl, but remains economically unviable without carbon credits above $185/t. The CARGEN retrofit, which recycles CO<sub>2</sub> into 2743 t/day multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs), reverses net emissions and maintains strong profitability at moderate natural gas (NG) prices. The hybrid scenario achieved a net-negative total CI of −138.9 g CO<sub>2</sub> eq/bbl, surpassing Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) targets and emerging as the most effective decarbonization strategy. Techno-economic analysis revealed that the LCAF production costs are highly sensitive to NG price fluctuations. At $3.36/MMBtu, the levelized cost of fuel (LCOF) ranges from $76.1/bbl (base case) to $257.8/bbl (hybrid). The hybrid scenario, despite higher capital expenditure (CAPEX) and operating expenditure (OPEX), remains the most viable long-term strategy, ensuring economic resilience through stable CO<sub>2</sub> reduction costs and diversified revenue streams. However, at $7/MMBtu, its payback period exceeds 12 years under the $15/kg MWCNT pricing assumption and the highest carbon credit of $185/t, highlighting the need for policy incentives to ensure commercial scalability. This study presents a scalable model for decarbonizing aviation fuel production, aligning with global sustainability goals by integrating renewable energy and advanced CO<sub>2</sub> utilization technologies.</p>","PeriodicalId":12796,"journal":{"name":"Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology","volume":"15 5","pages":"601-614"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://scijournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ghg.2340","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145296997","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}