Pub Date : 2023-09-13DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-5251-2023
Junsu Gil, Meehye Lee, Jeonghwan Kim, Gangwoong Lee, Joonyoung Ahn, Cheol-Hee Kim
Abstract. Nitrous acid (HONO) plays an important role in the formation of ozone and fine aerosols in the urban atmosphere. In this study, a new simulation approach is presented to calculate the HONO mixing ratios using a deep neural technique based on measured variables. The Reactive Nitrogen Species using a Deep Neural Network (RND) simulation is implemented in Python. The first version of RND (RNDv1.0) is trained, validated, and tested with HONO measurement data obtained in Seoul, South Korea, from 2016 to 2021. RNDv1.0 is constructed using k-fold cross validation and evaluated with index of agreement, correlation coefficient, root mean squared error, and mean absolute error. The results show that RNDv1.0 adequately represents the main characteristics of the measured HONO, and it is thus proposed as a supplementary model for calculating the HONO mixing ratio in a polluted urban environment.
{"title":"Simulation model of Reactive Nitrogen Species in an Urban Atmosphere using a Deep Neural Network: RNDv1.0","authors":"Junsu Gil, Meehye Lee, Jeonghwan Kim, Gangwoong Lee, Joonyoung Ahn, Cheol-Hee Kim","doi":"10.5194/gmd-16-5251-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5251-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Nitrous acid (HONO) plays an important role in the formation of ozone and fine aerosols in the urban atmosphere. In this study, a new simulation approach is presented to calculate the HONO mixing ratios using a deep neural technique based on measured variables. The Reactive Nitrogen Species using a Deep Neural Network (RND) simulation is implemented in Python. The first version of RND (RNDv1.0) is trained, validated, and tested with HONO measurement data obtained in Seoul, South Korea, from 2016 to 2021. RNDv1.0 is constructed using k-fold cross validation and evaluated with index of agreement, correlation coefficient, root mean squared error, and mean absolute error. The results show that RNDv1.0 adequately represents the main characteristics of the measured HONO, and it is thus proposed as a supplementary model for calculating the HONO mixing ratio in a polluted urban environment.","PeriodicalId":12799,"journal":{"name":"Geoscientific Model Development","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135781086","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-08DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-5131-2023
Cenlin He, Prasanth Valayamkunnath, M. Barlage, Fei Chen, David Gochis, Ryan Cabell, Tim Schneider, Roy Rasmussen, Guo-Yue Niu, Zong-Liang Yang, D. Niyogi, Michael Ek
Abstract. The widely used open-source community Noah with multi-parameterization options (Noah-MP) land surface model (LSM) is designed for applications ranging from uncoupled land surface hydrometeorological and ecohydrological process studies to coupled numerical weather prediction and decadal global or regional climate simulations. It has been used in many coupled community weather, climate, and hydrology models. In this study, we modernize and refactor the Noah-MP LSM by adopting modern Fortran code standards and data structures, which substantially enhance the model modularity, interoperability, and applicability. The modernized Noah-MP is released as the version 5.0 (v5.0), which has five key features: (1) enhanced modularization as a result of re-organizing model physics into individual process-level Fortran module files, (2) an enhanced data structure with new hierarchical data types and optimized variable declaration and initialization structures, (3) an enhanced code structure and calling workflow as a result of leveraging the new data structure and modularization, (4) enhanced (descriptive and self-explanatory) model variable naming standards, and (5) enhanced driver and interface structures to be coupled with the host weather, climate, and hydrology models. In addition, we create a comprehensive technical documentation of the Noah-MP v5.0 and a set of model benchmark and reference datasets. The Noah-MP v5.0 will be coupled to various weather, climate, and hydrology models in the future. Overall, the modernized Noah-MP allows a more efficient and convenient process for future model developments and applications.
{"title":"Modernizing the open-source community Noah with multi-parameterization options (Noah-MP) land surface model (version 5.0) with enhanced modularity, interoperability, and applicability","authors":"Cenlin He, Prasanth Valayamkunnath, M. Barlage, Fei Chen, David Gochis, Ryan Cabell, Tim Schneider, Roy Rasmussen, Guo-Yue Niu, Zong-Liang Yang, D. Niyogi, Michael Ek","doi":"10.5194/gmd-16-5131-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5131-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The widely used open-source community Noah with multi-parameterization options (Noah-MP) land surface model (LSM) is\u0000designed for applications ranging from uncoupled land surface\u0000hydrometeorological and ecohydrological process studies to coupled numerical\u0000weather prediction and decadal global or regional climate simulations. It has\u0000been used in many coupled community weather, climate, and hydrology models. In\u0000this study, we modernize and refactor the Noah-MP LSM by adopting modern Fortran\u0000code standards and data structures, which substantially enhance the model\u0000modularity, interoperability, and applicability. The modernized Noah-MP is\u0000released as the version 5.0 (v5.0), which has five key features: (1) enhanced modularization as a result of re-organizing model physics into individual\u0000process-level Fortran module files, (2) an enhanced data structure with new\u0000hierarchical data types and optimized variable declaration and\u0000initialization structures, (3) an enhanced code structure and calling workflow\u0000as a result of leveraging the new data structure and modularization, (4) enhanced\u0000(descriptive and self-explanatory) model variable naming standards, and (5) enhanced driver and interface structures to be coupled with the host\u0000weather, climate, and hydrology models. In addition, we create a comprehensive\u0000technical documentation of the Noah-MP v5.0 and a set of model benchmark and\u0000reference datasets. The Noah-MP v5.0 will be coupled to various\u0000weather, climate, and hydrology models in the future. Overall, the modernized\u0000Noah-MP allows a more efficient and convenient process for future model\u0000developments and applications.\u0000","PeriodicalId":12799,"journal":{"name":"Geoscientific Model Development","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2023-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41540530","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-08DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-5153-2023
Xiaoxu Shi, A. Cauquoin, Gerrit Lohmann, L. Jonkers, Qian Wang, Hu Yang, Yuchen Sun, Martin Werner
Abstract. Numerical simulations employing prognostic stable water isotopes can not only facilitate our understanding of hydrological processes and climate change but also allow for a direct comparison between isotope signals obtained from models and various archives. In the current work, we describe the performance and explore the potential of a new version of the Earth system model AWI-ESM (Alfred Wegener Institute Earth System Model), labeled AWI-ESM-2.1-wiso, in which we incorporated three isotope tracers into all relevant components of the water cycle. We present here the results of pre-industrial (PI) and mid-Holocene (MH) simulations. The model reproduces the observed PI isotope compositions in both precipitation and seawater well and captures their major differences from the MH conditions. The simulated relationship between the isotope composition in precipitation (δ18Op) and surface air temperature is very similar between the PI and MH conditions, and it is largely consistent with modern observations despite some regional model biases. The ratio of the MH–PI difference in δ18Op to the MH–PI difference in surface air temperature is comparable to proxy records over Greenland and Antarctica only when summertime air temperature is considered. An amount effect is evident over the North African monsoon domain, where a negative correlation between δ18Op and the amount of precipitation is simulated. As an example of model applications, we studied the onset and withdrawal date of the MH West African summer monsoon (WASM) using daily variables. We find that defining the WASM onset based on precipitation alone may yield erroneous results due to the substantial daily variations in precipitation, which may obscure the distinction between pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. Combining precipitation and isotope indicators, we suggest in this work a novel method for identifying the commencement of the WASM. Moreover, we do not find an obvious difference between the MH and PI periods in terms of the mean onset of the WASM. However, an advancement in the WASM withdrawal is found in the MH compared to the PI period due to an earlier decline in insolation over the northern location of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).
{"title":"Simulated stable water isotopes during the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial periods using AWI-ESM-2.1-wiso","authors":"Xiaoxu Shi, A. Cauquoin, Gerrit Lohmann, L. Jonkers, Qian Wang, Hu Yang, Yuchen Sun, Martin Werner","doi":"10.5194/gmd-16-5153-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5153-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Numerical simulations employing prognostic stable water isotopes can not only facilitate our understanding of hydrological processes and climate change but also allow for a direct comparison between isotope signals obtained from models and various archives. In the current work, we describe the performance and explore the potential of a new version of the Earth system model AWI-ESM (Alfred Wegener Institute Earth System Model), labeled AWI-ESM-2.1-wiso, in which we incorporated three isotope tracers into all relevant components of the water cycle. We present here the results of pre-industrial (PI) and mid-Holocene (MH) simulations. The model reproduces the observed PI isotope compositions in both precipitation and seawater well and captures their major differences from the MH conditions. The simulated relationship between the isotope composition in precipitation (δ18Op) and surface air temperature is very similar between the PI and MH conditions, and it is largely consistent with modern observations despite some regional model biases. The ratio of the MH–PI difference in δ18Op to the MH–PI difference in surface air temperature is comparable to proxy records over Greenland and Antarctica only when summertime air temperature is considered. An amount effect is evident over the North African monsoon domain, where a negative correlation between δ18Op and the amount of precipitation is simulated. As an example of model applications, we studied the onset and withdrawal date of the MH West African summer monsoon (WASM) using daily variables. We find that defining the WASM onset based on precipitation alone may yield erroneous results due to the substantial daily variations in precipitation, which may obscure the distinction between pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. Combining precipitation and isotope indicators, we suggest in this work a novel method for identifying the commencement of the WASM. Moreover, we do not find an obvious difference between the MH and PI periods in terms of the mean onset of the WASM. However, an advancement in the WASM withdrawal is found in the MH compared to the PI period due to an earlier decline in insolation over the northern location of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).\u0000","PeriodicalId":12799,"journal":{"name":"Geoscientific Model Development","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2023-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47163460","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-08DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-5179-2023
Jin-Song von Storch, Eileen Hertwig, Veit Lüschow, Nils Brüggemann, Helmuth Haak, Peter Korn, V. Singh
Abstract. This paper evaluates barotropic tides simulated by a newly developed multi-layer ocean general circulation, ICON-O, and assesses processes and model configurations that can impact the quality of the simulated tides. Such an investigation is crucial for applications addressing internal tides that are much more difficult to evaluate than the barotropic tides. Although not specially tuned for tides and not constrained by any observations, ICON-O is capable of producing the main features of the open-ocean barotropic tides as described by the geographical distributions of amplitude, phase, and amphidromic points. An error analysis shows, however, that the open-ocean tides simulated by ICON-O are less accurate than those simulated by two other ocean general circulation models (OGCMs), especially when not properly adjusting the time step and the parameters used in the time-stepping scheme. Based on a suite of tidal experiments, we show that an increase in horizontal resolution only improves tides in shallow waters. Relevant for using ICON-O with its telescoping grid capacity, we show that spatial inhomogeneity does not deteriorate the quality of the simulated tides. We further show that implementing a parameterization of topographic wave drag improves the quality of the simulated tides in deep ocean independent of the model configuration used, whereas the implementation of a self-attraction and loading (SAL) parameterization in a low-resolution (40 km) version of ICON-O degrades the quality of tides in shallow ocean. Finally, we show that the quality of tides simulated by ICON-O with low resolution (40 km) can be significantly improved by adjusting the time step or the parameters in the time-stepping scheme used for obtaining the model solution.
{"title":"Open-ocean tides simulated by ICON-O, version icon-2.6.6","authors":"Jin-Song von Storch, Eileen Hertwig, Veit Lüschow, Nils Brüggemann, Helmuth Haak, Peter Korn, V. Singh","doi":"10.5194/gmd-16-5179-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5179-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. This paper evaluates barotropic tides simulated by a newly developed multi-layer ocean general circulation, ICON-O, and assesses processes and model configurations that can impact the quality of the simulated tides. Such an investigation is crucial for applications addressing internal tides that are much more difficult to evaluate than the barotropic tides.\u0000Although not specially tuned for tides and not constrained by any observations, ICON-O is capable of producing the main features of the open-ocean barotropic tides as described by the geographical distributions of amplitude, phase, and amphidromic points. An error analysis shows, however, that the open-ocean tides simulated by ICON-O are less accurate than those simulated by two other ocean general circulation models (OGCMs), especially when not properly adjusting the time step and the parameters used in the time-stepping scheme. Based on a suite of tidal experiments, we show that an\u0000increase in horizontal resolution only improves tides in shallow waters. Relevant for using ICON-O with its telescoping grid capacity, we show that spatial inhomogeneity does not deteriorate the quality of the simulated tides. We further show that implementing a parameterization of topographic wave drag improves the quality of the simulated tides in deep ocean independent of the model configuration used, whereas the implementation of a self-attraction and loading (SAL) parameterization in a low-resolution (40 km) version of ICON-O degrades the quality of tides in shallow ocean.\u0000Finally, we show that the quality of tides simulated by ICON-O with low resolution (40 km) can be significantly improved by adjusting the time step or the parameters in the time-stepping scheme used for obtaining the model solution.\u0000","PeriodicalId":12799,"journal":{"name":"Geoscientific Model Development","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2023-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49307180","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-08DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-5197-2023
Mingzhao Liu, L. Hoffmann, S. Griessbach, Z. Cai, Yi Heng, Xue Wu
Abstract. The lifetime of sulfur dioxide (SO2) in the Earth's atmosphere varies from orders of hours to weeks, mainly depending on whether cloud water is present or not. The volcanic eruption on Ambae Island, Vanuatu, in July 2018 injected a large amount of SO2 into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UT/LS) region with abundant cloud cover. In-cloud removal is therefore expected to play an important role during long-range transport and dispersion of SO2. In order to better represent the rapid decay processes of SO2 observed by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) in Lagrangian transport simulations, we simulate the SO2 decay in a more realistic manner compared to our earlier work, considering gas-phase hydroxyl (OH) chemistry, aqueous-phase hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) chemistry, wet deposition, and convection. The either newly developed or improved chemical and physical modules are implemented in the Lagrangian transport model Massive-Parallel Trajectory Calculations (MPTRAC) and tested in a case study for the July 2018 Ambae eruption. To access the dependencies of the SO2 lifetime on the complex atmospheric conditions, sensitivity tests are conducted by tuning the control parameters, e.g., by changing the release height, the predefined OH climatology data, the cloud pH value, the cloud cover, and other variables. Wet deposition and aqueous-phase H2O2 oxidation remarkably increased the decay rate of the SO2 total mass, which leads to a rapid and more realistic depletion of the Ambae plume. The improved representation of chemical and physical SO2 loss processes described here is expected to lead to more realistic Lagrangian transport simulations of volcanic eruption events with MPTRAC in future work.
{"title":"Improved representation of volcanic sulfur dioxide depletion in Lagrangian transport simulations: a case study with MPTRAC v2.4","authors":"Mingzhao Liu, L. Hoffmann, S. Griessbach, Z. Cai, Yi Heng, Xue Wu","doi":"10.5194/gmd-16-5197-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5197-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The lifetime of sulfur dioxide (SO2) in the Earth's atmosphere varies from orders of hours to weeks, mainly depending on whether cloud water is present or not. The volcanic eruption on Ambae Island, Vanuatu, in July 2018 injected a large amount of SO2 into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UT/LS) region with abundant cloud cover. In-cloud removal is therefore expected to play an important role during long-range transport and dispersion of SO2. In order to better represent the rapid decay processes of SO2 observed by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) in Lagrangian transport simulations, we simulate the SO2 decay in a more realistic manner compared to our earlier work, considering gas-phase hydroxyl (OH) chemistry, aqueous-phase hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) chemistry, wet deposition, and convection. The either newly developed or improved chemical and physical modules are implemented in the Lagrangian transport model Massive-Parallel Trajectory Calculations (MPTRAC) and tested in a case study for the July 2018 Ambae eruption. To access the dependencies of the SO2 lifetime on the complex atmospheric conditions, sensitivity tests are conducted by tuning the control parameters, e.g., by changing the release height, the predefined OH climatology data, the cloud pH value, the cloud cover, and other variables. Wet deposition and aqueous-phase H2O2 oxidation remarkably increased the decay rate of the SO2 total mass, which leads to a rapid and more realistic depletion of the Ambae plume. The improved representation of chemical and physical SO2 loss processes described here is expected to lead to more realistic Lagrangian transport simulations of volcanic eruption events with MPTRAC in future work.\u0000","PeriodicalId":12799,"journal":{"name":"Geoscientific Model Development","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2023-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46469224","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-08DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-5219-2023
Vineet Yadav, Subhomoy Ghosh, Charles E. Miller
Abstract. Several metrics have been proposed and utilized to diagnose the performance of linear Bayesian and geostatistical atmospheric inverse problems. These metrics primarily assess the reductions in the prior uncertainties, compare modeled observations to true observations, and check distributional assumptions. Although important, these metrics should be augmented with a sensitivity analysis to obtain a comprehensive understanding of the atmospheric inversion performance and improve the quality and confidence in the inverse estimates. In this study, we derive closed-form expressions of local sensitivities for various input parameters, including measurements, covariance parameters, covariates, and a forward operator. To further enhance our understanding, we complement the local sensitivity analysis with a framework for a global sensitivity analysis that can apportion the uncertainty in input parameters to the uncertainty associated with inverse estimates. Additionally, we propose a mathematical framework to construct nonstationary correlation matrices from a precomputed forward operator, which is closely tied to the overall quality of inverse estimates. We demonstrate the application of our methodology in the context of an atmospheric inverse problem for estimating methane fluxes in Los Angeles, California.
{"title":"Metrics for evaluating the quality in linear atmospheric inverse problems: a case study of a trace gas inversion","authors":"Vineet Yadav, Subhomoy Ghosh, Charles E. Miller","doi":"10.5194/gmd-16-5219-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5219-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Several metrics have been proposed and utilized to diagnose the performance of linear Bayesian and geostatistical atmospheric inverse problems. These metrics primarily assess the reductions in the prior uncertainties, compare modeled observations to true observations, and check distributional assumptions. Although important, these metrics should be augmented with a sensitivity analysis to obtain a comprehensive understanding of the atmospheric inversion performance and improve the quality and confidence in the inverse estimates. In this study, we derive closed-form expressions of local sensitivities for various input parameters, including measurements, covariance parameters, covariates, and a forward operator. To further enhance our understanding, we complement the local sensitivity analysis with a framework for a global sensitivity analysis that can apportion the uncertainty in input parameters to the uncertainty associated with inverse estimates. Additionally, we propose a mathematical framework to construct nonstationary correlation matrices from a precomputed forward operator, which is closely tied to the overall quality of inverse estimates. We demonstrate the application of our methodology in the context of an atmospheric inverse problem for estimating methane fluxes in Los Angeles, California.\u0000","PeriodicalId":12799,"journal":{"name":"Geoscientific Model Development","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2023-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45323578","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-06DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-5113-2023
Xiaoyi Shao, Si-yuan Ma, Chong Xu
Abstract. To enhance the timeliness and accuracy of spatial prediction of coseismic landslides, we propose an improved three-stage spatial prediction strategy and develop corresponding hazard assessment software named Mat.LShazard V1.0. Based on this software, we evaluate the applicability of this improved spatial prediction strategy in six earthquake events that have occurred near the Sichuan–Yunnan region, including the Wenchuan, Ludian, Lushan, Jiuzhaigou, Minxian, and Yushu earthquakes. The results indicate that in the first stage (immediately after the quake event), except for the 2013 Minxian earthquake, the area under the curve (AUC) values of the modeling performance are above 0.8. Among them, the AUC value of the Wenchuan earthquake is the highest, reaching 0.947. The prediction results in the first stage can meet the requirements of emergency rescue by immediately obtaining the overall predicted information of the possible coseismic landslide locations in the quake-affected area. In the second and third stages, with the improvement of landslide data quality, the prediction ability of the model based on the entire landslide database is gradually improved. Based on the entire landslide database, the AUC value of the six events exceeds 0.9, indicating a very high prediction accuracy. For the second and third stages, the predicted landslide area (Ap) is relatively consistent with the observed landslide area (Ao). However, based on the incomplete landslide data in the meizoseismal area, Ap is much smaller than Ao. When the prediction model based on complete landslide data is built, Ap is nearly identical to Ao. This study provides a new application tool for coseismic landslide disaster prevention and mitigation in different stages of emergency rescue, temporary resettlement, and late reconstruction after a major earthquake.
{"title":"Hazard assessment modeling and software development of earthquake-triggered landslides in the Sichuan–Yunnan area, China","authors":"Xiaoyi Shao, Si-yuan Ma, Chong Xu","doi":"10.5194/gmd-16-5113-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5113-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. To enhance the timeliness and accuracy of spatial prediction of\u0000coseismic landslides, we propose an improved three-stage spatial prediction\u0000strategy and develop corresponding hazard assessment software named\u0000Mat.LShazard V1.0. Based on this software, we evaluate the applicability of\u0000this improved spatial prediction strategy in six earthquake events that have\u0000occurred near the Sichuan–Yunnan region, including the Wenchuan, Ludian,\u0000Lushan, Jiuzhaigou, Minxian, and Yushu earthquakes. The results indicate that\u0000in the first stage (immediately after the quake event), except for the 2013\u0000Minxian earthquake, the area under the curve (AUC) values of the modeling performance are above 0.8. Among them, the AUC value of the Wenchuan\u0000earthquake is the highest, reaching 0.947. The prediction results in the\u0000first stage can meet the requirements of emergency rescue by immediately\u0000obtaining the overall predicted information of the possible coseismic\u0000landslide locations in the quake-affected area. In the second and third\u0000stages, with the improvement of landslide data quality, the prediction\u0000ability of the model based on the entire landslide database is gradually\u0000improved. Based on the entire landslide database, the AUC value of the six\u0000events exceeds 0.9, indicating a very high prediction accuracy. For the\u0000second and third stages, the predicted landslide area (Ap) is relatively\u0000consistent with the observed landslide area (Ao). However, based on the\u0000incomplete landslide data in the meizoseismal area, Ap is much smaller than\u0000Ao. When the prediction model based on complete landslide data is built, Ap\u0000is nearly identical to Ao. This study provides a new application tool for\u0000coseismic landslide disaster prevention and mitigation in different stages\u0000of emergency rescue, temporary resettlement, and late reconstruction after a\u0000major earthquake.\u0000","PeriodicalId":12799,"journal":{"name":"Geoscientific Model Development","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2023-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43488740","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-06DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-5093-2023
Bernhard M. Enz, Jan P. Engelmann, U. Lohmann
Abstract. Assessing the capacity of numerical models to produce viable tropical cyclones, as well as assessing the climatological behavior of simulated tropical cyclones, requires an objective tracking method. These make use of parameter thresholds to determine whether a detected feature, such as a vorticity maximum or a warm core, is strong enough to indicate a tropical cyclone. The choice of parameter thresholds is generally subjective. This study proposes and assesses the parallel use of many threshold parameter combinations, combining a number of weaker and stronger values. The tracking algorithm succeeds in tracking tropical cyclones within the model data, beginning at their aggregation stage or shortly thereafter and ending when they interact strongly with extratropical flow and transition into extratropical cyclones or when their warm core decays. The sensitivity of accumulated cyclone energy to tracking errors is assessed. Tracking errors include the faulty initial detection and termination of valid tropical cyclones and systems falsely identified as tropical cyclones. They are found to not significantly impact the accumulated cyclone energy. Thus, the tracking algorithm produces an adequate estimate of the accumulated cyclone energy within the underlying data.
{"title":"Use of threshold parameter variation for tropical cyclone tracking","authors":"Bernhard M. Enz, Jan P. Engelmann, U. Lohmann","doi":"10.5194/gmd-16-5093-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5093-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Assessing the capacity of numerical models to produce viable tropical cyclones, as well as assessing the climatological behavior of simulated tropical cyclones, requires an objective tracking method. These make use of parameter thresholds to determine whether a detected feature, such as a vorticity maximum or a warm core, is strong enough to indicate a tropical cyclone. The choice of parameter thresholds is generally subjective.\u0000This study proposes and assesses the parallel use of many threshold parameter combinations, combining a number of weaker and stronger values. The tracking algorithm succeeds in tracking tropical cyclones within the model data, beginning at their aggregation stage or shortly thereafter and ending when they interact strongly with extratropical flow and transition into extratropical cyclones or when their warm core decays.\u0000The sensitivity of accumulated cyclone energy to tracking errors is assessed. Tracking errors include the faulty initial detection and termination of valid tropical cyclones and systems falsely identified as tropical cyclones. They are found to not significantly impact the accumulated cyclone energy. Thus, the tracking algorithm produces an adequate estimate of the accumulated cyclone energy within the underlying data.\u0000","PeriodicalId":12799,"journal":{"name":"Geoscientific Model Development","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2023-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46335701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-05DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-5069-2023
S. Fathi, Mark Gordon, Yongsheng Chen
Abstract. Super-resolution atmospheric modelling can be used to interpret and optimize environmental observations during top-down emission rate retrieval campaigns (e.g. aircraft-based) by providing complementary data that closely correspond to real-world atmospheric pollution transport and dispersion conditions. For this work, super-resolution model simulations with large-eddy-simulation sub-grid-scale parameterization were developed and implemented using WRF-ARW (Weather Research and Forecasting - Advanced Research WRF). We demonstrate a series of best practices for improved (realistic) modelling of atmospheric pollutant dispersion at super-resolutions. These include careful considerations for grid quality over complex terrain, sub-grid turbulence parameterization at the scale of large eddies, and ensuring local and global tracer mass conservation. The study objective was to resolve small dynamical processes inclusive of spatio-temporal scales of high-speed (e.g. 100 m s−1) airborne measurements. This was achieved by downscaling of reanalysis data from 31.25 km to 50 m through multi-domain model nesting in the horizontal and grid-refining in the vertical. Further, WRF dynamical-solver source code was modified to simulate the release of passive tracers within the finest-resolution domain. Different meteorological case studies and several tracer source emission scenarios were considered. Model-generated fields were evaluated against observational data (surface monitoring network and aircraft campaign data) and also in terms of tracer mass conservation. Results indicated agreement between modelled and observed values within 5 ∘C for temperature, 1 %–25 % for relative humidity, and 1–2 standard deviations for wind fields. Model performance in terms of (global and local) tracer mass conservation was within 2 % to 5 % of model input emissions. We found that, to ensure mass conservation within the modelling domain, tracers should be released on a regular-resolution grid (vertical and horizontal). Further, using our super-resolution modelling products, we investigated emission rate estimations based on flux calculation and mass-balancing. Our results indicate that retrievals under weak advection conditions (horizontal wind speeds < 5 m s−1) are not reliable due to weak correlation between the source emission rate and the downwind tracer mass flux. In this work we demonstrate the development of accurate super-resolution model simulations useful for planning, interpreting, and optimizing top-down retrievals, and we discuss favourable conditions (e.g. meteorological) for reliable mass-balance emission rate estimations.
摘要超分辨率大气建模可用于在自上而下的排放率检索活动(如基于飞机的)中解释和优化环境观测,提供与现实世界大气污染传输和扩散条件密切对应的补充数据。在这项工作中,使用WRF-ARW(天气研究和预测-高级研究WRF)开发并实现了具有大涡模拟子网格尺度参数化的超分辨率模型模拟。我们展示了一系列在超分辨率下改进(现实)大气污染物扩散建模的最佳实践。其中包括对复杂地形上的网格质量的仔细考虑,大涡流规模下的子网格湍流参数化,以及确保局部和全局示踪剂质量守恒。研究目标是解决小型动力学过程,包括高速(例如100 m s−1)空中测量。这是通过从31.25开始缩小再分析数据的规模来实现的 km至50 m在水平方向上通过多域模型嵌套,在垂直方向上通过网格细化。此外,修改了WRF动态求解器源代码,以模拟在最佳分辨率域内释放被动示踪剂。考虑了不同的气象案例研究和几种示踪剂源排放情景。根据观测数据(地面监测网络和飞机活动数据)以及示踪剂质量守恒对模型生成的场进行了评估。结果表明,建模值和观测值在5 ∘C表示温度,1 %–25 % 相对湿度,以及风场的1-2个标准偏差。在(全局和局部)示踪剂质量守恒方面,模型性能在2以内 % 至5 % 模型输入排放量。我们发现,为了确保建模领域内的质量守恒,示踪剂应该在常规分辨率网格(垂直和水平)上释放。此外,使用我们的超分辨率建模产品,我们研究了基于通量计算和质量平衡的排放率估计。我们的结果表明,在弱平流条件下(水平风速< 5. m s−1)是不可靠的,因为源发射速率和顺风示踪剂质量通量之间的相关性较弱。在这项工作中,我们展示了精确的超分辨率模型模拟的发展,这些模拟有助于规划、解释和优化自上而下的检索,我们还讨论了可靠的质量平衡排放率估计的有利条件(如气象条件)。
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Pub Date : 2023-09-01DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-4937-2023
A. Gettelman
Abstract. Earth system models (ESMs) must represent processes below the grid scale of a model using representations (parameterizations) of physical and chemical processes. As a tutorial exercise to understand diagnostics and parameterization, this work presents a representation of rainbows for an ESM: the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). Using the “state” of the model, basic physical laws, and some assumptions, we generate a representation of this unique optical phenomenon as a diagnostic output. Rainbow occurrence and its possible changes are related to cloud occurrence and rain formation, which are critical uncertainties for climate change prediction. The work highlights issues which are typical of many diagnostic parameterizations such as assumptions, uncertain parameters, and the difficulty of evaluation against uncertain observations. Results agree qualitatively with limited available global “observations” of rainbows. Rainbows are seen in expected locations in the subtropics over the ocean where broken clouds and frequent precipitation occur. The diurnal peak is in the morning over ocean and in the evening over land. The representation of rainbows is found to be quantitatively sensitive to the assumed amount of cloudiness and the amount of stratiform rain. Rainbows are projected to have decreased, mostly in the Northern Hemisphere, due to aerosol pollution effects increasing cloud coverage since 1850. In the future, continued climate change is projected to decrease cloud cover, associated with a positive cloud feedback. As a result the rainbow diagnostic projects that rainbows will increase in the future, with the largest changes at midlatitudes. The diagnostic may be useful for assessing cloud parameterizations and is an exercise in how to build and test parameterizations of atmospheric phenomena.
{"title":"Rainbows and climate change: a tutorial on climate model diagnostics and parameterization","authors":"A. Gettelman","doi":"10.5194/gmd-16-4937-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4937-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Earth system models (ESMs) must represent processes below the grid scale of a model using representations (parameterizations) of physical and\u0000chemical processes. As a tutorial exercise to understand diagnostics and parameterization, this work presents a representation of rainbows for an\u0000ESM: the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). Using the “state” of the model, basic physical laws, and some assumptions, we generate a\u0000representation of this unique optical phenomenon as a diagnostic output. Rainbow occurrence and its possible changes are related to cloud occurrence\u0000and rain formation, which are critical uncertainties for climate change prediction. The work highlights issues which are typical of many diagnostic\u0000parameterizations such as assumptions, uncertain parameters, and the difficulty of evaluation against uncertain observations. Results agree\u0000qualitatively with limited available global “observations” of rainbows. Rainbows are seen in expected locations in the subtropics over the ocean\u0000where broken clouds and frequent precipitation occur. The diurnal peak is in the morning over ocean and in the evening over land. The\u0000representation of rainbows is found to be quantitatively sensitive to the assumed amount of cloudiness and the amount of stratiform rain. Rainbows\u0000are projected to have decreased, mostly in the Northern Hemisphere, due to aerosol pollution effects increasing cloud coverage since 1850. In the\u0000future, continued climate change is projected to decrease cloud cover, associated with a positive cloud feedback. As a result the rainbow diagnostic\u0000projects that rainbows will increase in the future, with the largest changes at midlatitudes. The diagnostic may be useful for assessing cloud\u0000parameterizations and is an exercise in how to build and test parameterizations of atmospheric phenomena.\u0000","PeriodicalId":12799,"journal":{"name":"Geoscientific Model Development","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48052682","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}