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Optimal periodic maintenance policy under imperfect repair: A case study on the engines of off-road vehicles 不完全修理条件下的最优定期维修策略——以非公路车辆发动机为例
Pub Date : 2016-02-12 DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2016.1147663
M. L. Toledo, Marta A. Freitas, E. Colosimo, Gustavo L. Gilardoni
ABSTRACT In the repairable systems literature one can find a great number of papers that propose maintenance policies under the assumption of minimal repair after each failure (such a repair leaves the system in the same condition as it was just before the failure—as bad as old). This article derives a statistical procedure to estimate the optimal Preventive Maintenance (PM) periodic policy, under the following two assumptions: (i) perfect repair at each PM action (i.e., the system returns to the as-good-as-new state) and (ii) imperfect system repair after each failure (the system returns to an intermediate state between as bad as old and as good as new). Models for imperfect repair have already been presented in the literature. However, an inference procedure for the quantities of interest has not yet been fully studied. In the present article, statistical methods, including the likelihood function, Monte Carlo simulation, and bootstrap resampling methods, are used in order to (i) estimate the degree of efficiency of a repair and (ii) obtain the optimal PM check points that minimize the expected total cost. This study was motivated by a real situation involving the maintenance of engines in off-road vehicles.
在可修复系统的文献中,人们可以发现大量的论文提出了在每次故障后最小修复的假设下的维护策略(这种修复使系统处于与故障前相同的状态-与旧一样坏)。本文推导了一个统计过程来估计最优预防性维护(PM)周期策略,在以下两个假设下:(i)每次预防性维护时的完美修复(即,系统返回到与新一样好状态)和(ii)每次故障后的不完美系统修复(系统返回到与旧一样坏和与新一样好之间的中间状态)。文献中已经提出了不完全修复的模型。然而,兴趣量的推理程序尚未得到充分的研究。在本文中,使用了统计方法,包括似然函数、蒙特卡罗模拟和自举重采样方法,以便(i)估计维修的效率程度,(ii)获得使预期总成本最小化的最佳PM检查点。这项研究的动机是一个真实的情况下,涉及维修发动机的越野车。
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引用次数: 12
Optimal condition-based harvesting policies for biomanufacturing operations with failure risks 具有失效风险的生物制造作业中基于条件的最佳收获策略
Pub Date : 2016-02-12 DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2015.1101523
Tugce G. Martagan, A. Krishnamurthy, C. Maravelias
ABSTRACT The manufacture of biological products from live systems such as bacteria, mammalian, or insect cells is called biomanufacturing. The use of live cells introduces several operational challenges including batch-to-batch variability, parallel growth of both desired antibodies and unwanted toxic byproducts in the same batch, and random shocks leading to multiple competing failure processes. In this article, we develop a stochastic model that integrates the cell-level dynamics of biological processes with operational dynamics to identify optimal harvesting policies that balance the risks of batch failures and yield/quality tradeoffs in fermentation operations. We develop an infinite horizon, discrete-time Markov decision model to derive the structural properties of the optimal harvesting policies. We use IgG1 antibody production as an example to demonstrate the optimal harvesting policy and compare its performance against harvesting policies used in practice. We leverage insights from the optimal policy to propose smart stationary policies that are easier to implement in practice.
从细菌、哺乳动物或昆虫细胞等活体系统中生产生物制品被称为生物制造。活细胞的使用带来了一些操作上的挑战,包括批与批之间的可变性,在同一批中需要的抗体和不需要的有毒副产物同时生长,以及导致多个竞争失败过程的随机冲击。在本文中,我们开发了一个随机模型,该模型将生物过程的细胞水平动力学与操作动力学相结合,以确定最佳收获策略,平衡发酵操作中批次失败的风险和产量/质量权衡。我们建立了一个无限视界的离散马尔可夫决策模型来推导最优收获策略的结构性质。我们以IgG1抗体生产为例来演示最佳收获策略,并将其性能与实践中使用的收获策略进行比较。我们利用最优政策的见解来提出更容易在实践中实施的智能固定政策。
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引用次数: 34
Compressive sensing–based optimal sensor placement and fault diagnosis for multi-station assembly processes 基于压缩感知的多工位装配过程传感器优化配置与故障诊断
Pub Date : 2016-02-08 DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2015.1096431
K. Bastani, Z. Kong, Wenzhen Huang, Yingqing Zhou
ABSTRACT Developments in sensing technologies have created the opportunity to diagnose the process faults in multi-station assembly processes by analyzing measurement data. Sufficient diagnosability for process faults is a challenging issue, as the sensors cannot be excessively used. Therefore, there have been a number of methods reported in the literature for the optimization of the diagnosability of a diagnostic method for a given sensor cost, thus allowing the identification of process faults incurred in multi-station assembly processes. However, most of these methods assume that the number of sensors is more than that of the process errors. Unfortunately, this assumption may not hold in many real industrial applications. Thus, the diagnostic methods have to solve underdetermined linear equations. In order to address this issue, we propose an optimal sensor placement method by devising a new diagnosability criterion based on compressive sensing theory, which is able to handle underdetermined linear equations. Our method seeks the optimal sensor placement by minimizing the average mutual coherence to maximize the diagnosability. The proposed method is demonstrated and validated through case studies from actual industrial applications.
传感技术的发展为通过分析测量数据来诊断多工位装配过程中的过程故障创造了机会。充分诊断过程故障是一个具有挑战性的问题,因为传感器不能过度使用。因此,文献中已经报道了许多方法,用于优化给定传感器成本的诊断方法的可诊断性,从而允许识别多站装配过程中发生的过程故障。然而,这些方法大多假设传感器的数量大于过程误差的数量。不幸的是,这种假设在许多实际的工业应用中可能不成立。因此,诊断方法必须求解欠定线性方程。为了解决这一问题,我们设计了一种新的基于压缩感知理论的可诊断性准则,该准则能够处理欠定线性方程,从而提出了一种最优传感器放置方法。我们的方法通过最小化平均相互相干来寻求传感器的最佳位置,以最大化可诊断性。通过实际工业应用的案例研究,验证了该方法的有效性。
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引用次数: 16
Software reliability growth modeling and analysis with dual fault detection and correction processes 基于双故障检测和修正过程的软件可靠性增长建模与分析
Pub Date : 2016-02-08 DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2015.1096432
Lujia Wang, Q. Hu, Jian Liu
ABSTRACT Computer software is widely applied in safety-critical systems. The ever-increasing complexity of software systems makes it extremely difficult to ensure software reliability, and this problem has drawn considerable attention from both industry and academia. Most software reliability models are built on a common assumption that the detected faults are immediately corrected; thus, the fault detection and correction processes can be regarded as the same process. In this article, a comprehensive study is conducted to analyze the time dependencies between the fault detection and correction processes. The model parameters are estimated using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method, which is based on an explicit likelihood function combining both the fault detection and correction processes. Numerical case studies are conducted under the proposed modeling framework. The obtained results demonstrate that the proposed MLE method can be applied to more general situations and provide more accurate results. Furthermore, the predictive capability of the MLE method is compared with that of the Least Squares Estimation (LSE) method. The prediction results indicate that the proposed MLE method performs better than the LSE method when the data are not large in size or are collected in the early phase of software testing.
计算机软件在安全关键系统中有着广泛的应用。随着软件系统复杂性的不断增加,保证软件的可靠性变得极其困难,这一问题已经引起了业界和学术界的广泛关注。大多数软件可靠性模型都建立在一个共同的假设上,即检测到的故障会立即得到纠正;因此,故障检测和纠错过程可以看作是同一个过程。本文对故障检测与校正过程之间的时间依赖关系进行了全面的研究。模型参数的估计采用最大似然估计(MLE)方法,该方法基于显式似然函数,结合故障检测和校正过程。在提出的建模框架下进行了数值案例研究。结果表明,该方法可以应用于更一般的情况,并提供更准确的结果。在此基础上,比较了最小二乘估计(LSE)和最大似然估计(MLE)的预测能力。预测结果表明,当数据规模较小或在软件测试的早期阶段收集时,所提出的MLE方法优于LSE方法。
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引用次数: 23
CUSUM procedures with probability control limits for monitoring processes with variable sample sizes 具有概率控制限制的CUSUM程序,用于监测具有可变样本量的过程
Pub Date : 2016-02-06 DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2016.1146422
Wenpo Huang, L. Shu, W. Woodall, K. Tsui
ABSTRACT Control charts are usually designed with constant control limits. In this article, we consider the design of control charts with probability control limits aimed at controlling the conditional false alarm rate at the desired value at each time step. The resulting control limits are dynamic and thus are more general and capable of accommodating more complex situations in practice as compared with the use of a constant control limit. We consider the situation when the sample sizes are varying over time, with a primary focus on the CUmulative SUM (CUSUM)-type control charts. Unlike other methods, no assumptions about future sample sizes are required with our approach. An integral equation approach is developed to facilitate the design and analysis of the CUSUM control chart with probability control limits. The relationship between the CUSUM charts using probability control limits and the CUSUM charts with a fast initial response feature is investigated.
控制图通常设计有恒定的控制限。在本文中,我们考虑设计具有概率控制极限的控制图,目的是在每个时间步长将条件虚警率控制在期望值。与使用恒定控制极限相比,由此产生的控制极限是动态的,因此更普遍,能够适应实践中更复杂的情况。我们考虑样本量随时间变化的情况,主要关注累积SUM (CUSUM)类型的控制图。与其他方法不同,我们的方法不需要对未来的样本量进行假设。为了方便设计和分析具有概率控制极限的CUSUM控制图,提出了一种积分方程方法。研究了具有概率控制极限的CUSUM图与具有快速初始响应特征的CUSUM图之间的关系。
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引用次数: 19
Reliability analysis of multiple-component series systems subject to hard and soft failures with dependent shock effects 具有相关冲击效应的软、硬故障多部件串联系统可靠性分析
Pub Date : 2016-02-06 DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2016.1140922
S. Song, D. Coit, Q. Feng
ABSTRACT New reliability models have been developed for systems subject to competing hard and soft failure processes with shocks that have dependent effects. In the new model, hard failure occurs when transmitted system shocks are large enough to cause any component in a series system to fail immediately, soft failure occurs when any component deteriorates to a certain failure threshold, and system shocks affect both failure processes for all components. Our new research extends previous reliability models that had dependent failure processes, where the dependency was only because of the shared number of shock exposures and not the shock effects associated with individual system shocks. Dependency of transmitted shock sizes and shock damages to the specific failure processes for all components has not been sufficiently considered, and yet for some actual examples, this can be important. In practice, the effects of shock damages to the multiple failure processes among components are often dependent. In this article, we combine both probabilistic and physical degradation modeling concepts to develop the new system reliability model. Four different dependent patterns/scenarios of shock effects on multiple failure processes for all components are considered for series systems. This represents a significant extension from previous research because it is more realistic yet also more difficult for reliability modeling. The model is demonstrated by severalexamples.
新的可靠性模型已经被开发出来,用于系统受到具有依赖效应的冲击的硬失效和软失效过程的竞争。在新模型中,当传输的系统冲击大到足以导致串联系统中的任何组件立即失效时,就会发生硬故障;当任何组件恶化到一定的失效阈值时,就会发生软故障;系统冲击影响所有组件的两个失效过程。我们的新研究扩展了以前的可靠性模型,该模型具有依赖的故障过程,其中依赖仅是因为冲击暴露的共享数量,而不是与单个系统冲击相关的冲击效应。传递冲击尺寸和冲击损伤对所有部件具体失效过程的依赖关系尚未得到充分考虑,但对于一些实际例子,这可能是重要的。在实际应用中,冲击损伤对构件间多重失效过程的影响往往是相互依赖的。在本文中,我们结合概率和物理退化建模概念来开发新的系统可靠性模型。对于串联系统,考虑了所有部件在多个失效过程中冲击效应的四种不同依赖模式/场景。这是对以往研究的一个重要扩展,因为它更现实,但也更难以进行可靠性建模。通过几个算例对模型进行了验证。
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引用次数: 80
Reliability analysis and optimal structure of series-parallel phased-mission systems subject to fault-level coverage 故障级覆盖下串并联相控任务系统的可靠性分析与优化结构
Pub Date : 2016-02-06 DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2016.1146424
R. Peng, Qing-gang Zhai, L. Xing, Jun Yang
ABSTRACT Many practical systems have multiple consecutive and non-overlapping phases of operations during their mission and are generally referred to as phased-mission systems (PMSs). This article considers a general type of PMS consisting of subsystems connected in series, where each subsystem contains components with different capacities. The components within the same subsystem are divided into several disjoint work-sharing groups (WSGs). The capacity of each WSG is equal to the summation of the capacities of its working components, and the capacity of each subsystem is equal to the capacity of the WSG with the maximum capacity. The system capacity is bottlenecked by the capacity of the subsystem with the minimum capacity. The system survives the mission only if its capacity meets the predetermined mission demand in all phases. Such PMSs can be commonly found in the power transmission and telecommunication industries. A universal generating function–based method is first proposed for the reliability analysis of the capacitated series-parallel PMSs with the consideration of imperfect fault coverage. As different partitions of the WSGs inside a subsystem can lead to different system reliabilities, the optimal structure that maximizes the system reliability is investigated. Examples are presented to illustrate the proposed reliability evaluation method and optimization procedure.
许多实际系统在其任务期间具有多个连续且不重叠的操作阶段,通常称为分阶段任务系统(pms)。本文考虑由串联的子系统组成的一般类型的PMS,其中每个子系统包含具有不同容量的组件。同一子系统中的组件被划分为几个互不关联的工作共享组(wsg)。每个WSG的容量等于其工作组件的容量之和,每个子系统的容量等于最大容量WSG的容量。系统容量受到最小容量子系统容量的限制。系统只有在所有阶段的能力满足预定的任务需求时才能生存。这种pms通常可以在电力传输和电信行业中找到。提出了一种基于通用生成函数的电容串并联PMSs可靠性分析方法,并考虑了不完全故障覆盖。由于子系统内部wsg的不同分区会导致不同的系统可靠性,因此研究了使系统可靠性最大化的最优结构。通过实例说明了所提出的可靠性评估方法和优化步骤。
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引用次数: 77
Scheduling in two-machine robotic cells with a self-buffered robot 具有自缓冲机器人的双机机器人单元调度
Pub Date : 2016-02-01 DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2015.1047475
Emine Gundogdu, Hakan Gultekin
ABSTRACT This study considers a production cell consisting of two machines and a material handling robot. The robot has a buffer space that moves with it. Identical parts are to be produced repetitively in this flowshop environment. The problem is to determine the cyclic schedule of the robot moves that maximizes the throughput rate. After developing the necessary framework to analyze such cells, we separately consider the single-, double-, and infinite-capacity buffer cases. For single- and double-capacity cases, consistent with the literature, we consider one-unit cycles that produce a single part in one repetition. We compare these cycles with each other and determine the set of undominated cycles. For the single-capacity case, we determine the parameter regions where each cycle is optimal, whereas for the double-capacity case, we determine efficient cycles and their worst-case performance bounds. For the infinite-capacity buffer case, we define a new class of cycles that better utilizes the benefits of the buffer space. We derive all such cycles and determine the set of undominated ones.We perform a computational study where we investigate the benefits of robots with a buffer space and the effects of the size of the buffer space on the performance. We compare the performances of self-buffered robots, dual-gripper robots, and robots with swap ability.
本研究考虑了一个由两台机器和一个物料搬运机器人组成的生产单元。机器人有一个与它一起移动的缓冲空间。相同的零件将在这种流水作业环境中重复生产。问题是确定机器人运动的循环计划,使吞吐率最大化。在开发必要的框架来分析这些单元之后,我们分别考虑单容量、双容量和无限容量的缓冲情况。对于单容量和双容量情况,与文献一致,我们考虑在一次重复中产生单个部分的单单元循环。我们将这些循环相互比较,确定非支配循环的集合。对于单容量情况,我们确定每个循环最优的参数区域,而对于双容量情况,我们确定有效循环及其最坏情况性能界限。对于无限容量的缓冲情况,我们定义了一类新的循环,它能更好地利用缓冲空间的优势。我们推导出所有这样的循环,并确定非支配循环的集合。我们进行了一项计算研究,研究了具有缓冲空间的机器人的好处以及缓冲空间大小对性能的影响。我们比较了自缓冲机器人、双夹持机器人和具有交换能力的机器人的性能。
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引用次数: 12
Mitigating hard capacity constraints with inventory in facility location modeling 缓解设施位置建模中库存的硬容量限制
Pub Date : 2016-02-01 DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2015.1078015
K. Maass, M. Daskin, Siqian Shen
ABSTRACT Although the traditional capacitated facility location model uses inflexible, limited capacities, facility managers often have many operational tools to extend capacity or to allow a facility to accept demands in excess of the capacity constraint for short periods of time. We present a mixed-integer program that captures these operational extensions. In particular, demands are not restricted by the capacity constraint, as we allow for unprocessed materials from one day to be held over in inventory and processed on a following day. We also consider demands at a daily level, which allows us to explicitly incorporate the daily variation in, and possibly correlated nature of, demands. Large problem instances, in terms of the number of demand nodes, candidate nodes, and number of days in the time horizon, are generated from United States census population data. We demonstrate that, in some instances, optimal locations identified by the new model differ from those of the traditional capacitated facility location problem and result in significant cost savings.
虽然传统的可容设施选址模型使用的是不灵活的、有限的能力,但设施管理人员通常有许多操作工具来扩展能力或允许设施在短时间内接受超出能力约束的需求。我们提出了一个捕获这些运算扩展的混合整数程序。特别是,需求不受产能限制的限制,因为我们允许一天未加工的材料保留在库存中,并在第二天加工。我们还考虑日常水平的需求,这使我们能够明确地将需求的日常变化和可能相关的本质结合起来。就需求节点的数量、候选节点的数量和时间范围内的天数而言,大型问题实例是从美国人口普查数据生成的。我们证明,在某些情况下,新模型确定的最佳位置与传统的有容量设施位置问题不同,并导致显著的成本节约。
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引用次数: 14
Dynamic multi-technology production-inventory problem with emissions trading 考虑排放交易的动态多技术生产库存问题
Pub Date : 2016-02-01 DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2015.1011357
Wei Zhang, Zhongsheng Hua, Yu Xia, Baofeng Huo
ABSTRACT We study a periodic-review multi-technology production-inventory problem of a single product with emissions trading over a planning horizon consisting of multiple periods. A manufacturer selects among multiple technologies with different unit production costs and emissions allowance consumption rates to produce the product to meet independently distributed random market demands. The manufacturer receives an emissions allowance at the beginning of the planning horizon and is allowed to trade allowances through an outside market in each of the following periods. To solve the dynamic multi-technology production-inventory problem, we virtually separate the problem into an inner layer and an outer layer. Based on the structural properties of the two layers, we find that the optimal emissions trading policy follows a target interval policy with two thresholds, whereas the optimal production policy has a composite base-stock structure. Our theoretical results show that no more than two technologies should be selected simultaneously at any state. However, different groups of technologies may be selected at different states. Our numerical tests confirm that it can be economically beneficial for a manufacturer to maintain multiple available technologies.
我们研究了一个周期审查的多技术生产库存问题,该问题是由多个时期组成的规划范围内具有排放交易的单一产品。制造商从具有不同单位生产成本和排放限额消耗率的多种技术中进行选择,以生产满足独立分布的随机市场需求的产品。制造商在规划期开始时获得排放配额,并获准在接下来的每个时期通过外部市场进行排放配额交易。为了解决动态多技术生产-库存问题,我们实际上将问题划分为内层和外层。基于这两层的结构特性,我们发现最优排放交易政策遵循具有两个阈值的目标区间政策,而最优生产政策具有复合基存量结构。我们的理论结果表明,在任何状态下,同时选择的技术不应超过两种。但是,在不同的状态下可能会选择不同的技术组。我们的数值测试证实,对于制造商来说,保持多种可用技术在经济上是有益的。
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引用次数: 21
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