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Joint modeling of laboratory and field data with application to warranty prediction for highly reliable products 实验室和现场数据的联合建模及其在高可靠性产品保修预测中的应用
Pub Date : 2016-02-01 DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2015.1133941
S. Tseng, Nan-Jung Hsu, Yi-Chiao Lin
ABSTRACT To achieve a successful warranty management program, a good prediction of a product's field return rate during the warranty period is essential. This study aims to make field return rate predictions for a particular scenario, the one where multiple products have a similar design and discrete-type laboratory data together with continuous-type field data is available for each product. We build a hierarchical model to link the laboratory and field data on failure. The efficient sharing of information among products means that the proposed method generally provides a more stable laboratory summary for each individual product, especially for those cases with few or even no failures during the laboratory testing stage. Furthermore, a real case study is used to verify the proposed method. It is shown that the proposed method provides a better connection between laboratory reliability and field reliability, and this leads to a significant improvement in the estimated field return rate.
为了实现一个成功的保修管理计划,对产品在保修期内的现场退货率进行良好的预测是必不可少的。本研究旨在对特定场景进行现场回报率预测,其中多个产品具有相似的设计,并且每个产品都可以获得离散型实验室数据和连续型现场数据。我们建立了一个层次模型,将实验室和现场的故障数据联系起来。产品之间有效的信息共享意味着所提出的方法通常为每个单独的产品提供更稳定的实验室总结,特别是在实验室测试阶段很少甚至没有故障的情况下。最后,通过实例分析验证了该方法的有效性。结果表明,该方法在实验室可靠性和现场可靠性之间提供了更好的联系,从而显著提高了估计的现场回报率。
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引用次数: 15
Effective network formulations for lot sizing with backlogging in two-level serial supply chains 两级连续供应链中具有积压的批量化的有效网络公式
Pub Date : 2016-02-01 DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2015.1027457
O. Solyalı, Meltem Denizel, Haldun Süral
ABSTRACT This study considers the serial lot sizing problem with backlogging in two-level supply chains to determine when and how much to order at a warehouse and ship to a retailer over a T-period planning horizon so that the external known demand occurring at the retailer is satisfied and the total cost at all levels is minimized. In particular, the uncapacitated two-level serial lot sizing problem with backlogging and the two-level serial lot sizing problem with cargo capacity and backlogging are formulated using effective shortest-path network representations, which define the convex hull of their feasible solutions. These representations lead to efficient algorithms with O(T3) time for the uncapacitated problem and O(T6) time for the capacitated problem. Furthermore, a tight reformulation with O(T3) variables and O(T2) constraints (resp. O(T6) variables and O(T5) constraints) is proposed for the uncapacitated (resp. capacitated) problem.
本研究考虑了两级供应链中存在积压的连续批量问题,以确定在t期规划范围内何时从仓库订购并向零售商运送多少货物,从而满足零售商发生的外部已知需求,并使各级总成本最小化。特别地,利用有效的最短路径网络表示,定义了可行解的凸包,建立了考虑积压的无能力两级连续批量问题和考虑载货能力和积压的两级连续批量问题。这些表示导致了有效的算法,无能力问题的时间为O(T3),有能力问题的时间为O(T6)。此外,一个具有O(T3)个变量和O(T2)个约束的严密的重新表述(见图2)。对于无行为能力(p. 1),提出了O(T6)个变量和O(T5)个约束。生产配送)问题。
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引用次数: 7
Just-in-time vehicle scheduling with capacity constraints 容量约束下的准时化车辆调度
Pub Date : 2016-02-01 DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2015.1056390
N. Boysen, Dirk Briskorn, Simon Emde
ABSTRACT This article treats a scheduling problem where timely departures of vehicles executing Just-In-Time (JIT) deliveries between a single supplier and a single receiver along with the assignment of supplies to vehicles are to be determined. This problem, for instance, arises in the automotive industry where parts are to be delivered JIT from a central distribution center to a car manufacturer. We define different subproblems and provide an analysis of computational complexity along with suitable solution procedures. Furthermore, we apply these procedures to an industry case, so that managerial implications are revealed; e.g., with regard to the impact of standardized containers on delivery costs.
摘要本文处理一个调度问题,其中在单个供应商和单个接收器之间执行准时交货(JIT)的车辆的及时出发以及对车辆的物资分配要确定。例如,这个问题出现在汽车工业中,其中零件要从中央配送中心准时交付给汽车制造商。我们定义了不同的子问题,并提供了计算复杂性的分析以及合适的解决程序。此外,我们将这些程序应用于一个行业案例,以便揭示管理意义;例如,关于标准化集装箱对运输成本的影响。
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引用次数: 16
Hierarchical time-dependent shortest path algorithms for vehicle routing under ITS ITS下车辆路径的分层时变最短路径算法
Pub Date : 2016-02-01 DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2015.1078523
Mark M. Nejad, Lena Mashayekhy, R. Chinnam, A. Phillips
ABSTRACT The development of efficient algorithms for vehicle routing on time-dependent networks is one of the major challenges in routing under intelligent transportation systems. Existing vehicle routing navigation systems, whether built-in or portable, lack the ability to rely on online servers. Such systems must compute the route in a stand-alone mode with limited hardware processing/memory capacity given an origin/destination pair and departure time. In this article, we propose a computationally efficient, yet effective, hierarchical algorithm to solve the time-dependent shortest path problem. Our proposed algorithm exploits community-based hierarchical representations of road networks, and it recursively reduces the search space in each level of the hierarchy by using our proposed search strategy algorithm. Our proposed algorithm is efficient in terms of finding shortest paths in milliseconds for large-scale road networks while eliminating the need to store preprocessed shortest paths, shortcuts, lower bounds, etc. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed algorithm using data from Detroit, New York, and San Francisco road networks.
开发有效的时间相关网络车辆路径算法是智能交通系统下路径选择的主要挑战之一。现有的车辆路线导航系统,无论是内置的还是便携式的,都缺乏依赖在线服务器的能力。这样的系统必须在给定出发地/目的地对和出发时间的情况下,在硬件处理和内存容量有限的独立模式下计算路线。在本文中,我们提出了一种计算效率高且有效的分层算法来解决时间相关的最短路径问题。我们提出的算法利用基于社区的道路网络层次表示,并通过使用我们提出的搜索策略算法递归地减少层次结构中每个层次的搜索空间。我们提出的算法在毫秒内找到大规模道路网络的最短路径方面是有效的,同时消除了存储预处理最短路径、捷径、下界等的需要。我们使用来自底特律、纽约和旧金山道路网络的数据来演示所提出算法的性能。
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引用次数: 11
Reliability modeling and preventive maintenance of load-sharing systemswith degrading components 具有退化部件的负载共享系统的可靠性建模和预防性维护
Pub Date : 2016-01-29 DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2015.1125041
B. Liu, M. Xie, W. Kuo
ABSTRACT This article presents certain new approaches to the reliability modeling of systems subject to shared loads. It is assumed that components in the system degrade continuously through an additive impact under load. The reliability assessment of such systems is often complicated by the fact that both the arriving load and the failure of components influence the degradation of the surviving components in a complex manner. The proposed approaches seek to ease this problem, by first deriving the time to prior failures and the arrival of random loads and then determining the number of failed components. Two separate models capable of analyzing system reliability as well as arriving at system maintenance and design decisions are proposed. The first considers a constant load and the other a cumulative load. A numerical example is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed models.
摘要本文提出了共享负荷下系统可靠性建模的一些新方法。假定系统中的部件在负载作用下通过加性冲击而不断退化。这类系统的可靠性评估往往是复杂的,因为到达负荷和部件失效都会以复杂的方式影响剩余部件的退化。所提出的方法旨在缓解这一问题,首先推导出先前失效的时间和随机载荷的到达,然后确定失效部件的数量。提出了两个独立的模型来分析系统可靠性并得出系统维护和设计决策。前者考虑恒定载荷,后者考虑累积载荷。最后通过数值算例说明了所提模型的有效性。
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引用次数: 54
Signal Interpretation in Hotelling's T2 Control Chart for Compositional Data 成分数据的Hotelling T2控制图的信号解释
Pub Date : 2016-01-28 DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2015.1125042
M. Mestres, Josep Estadella, J. A. Fernández
This work has been partially financed by the Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovaci´on (Ref: MTM2012- 33236) and the Ag`encia de Gesti´o d’Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca (AGAUR), Generalitat de Catalunya (Ref: 2014SGR551)
这项工作的部分资金来自加拿大创新部(参考号:MTM2012-33236)和加泰罗尼亚综合大学的Agência de Gesti´o d’Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca(AGAUR)(参考编号:2014SGR551)
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引用次数: 15
Rank-based process control for mixed-type data 混合类型数据的基于秩的过程控制
Pub Date : 2016-01-28 DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2015.1126002
Dong Ding, F. Tsung, Jian Li
ABSTRACT Conventional statistical process control tools target either continuous or categorical data but seldom both at the same time. However, mixed-type data consisting of both continuous and categorical observations are becoming more common in modern manufacturing processes and service management. However, they cannot be analyzed using traditional methods. By assuming that there is a latent continuous variable that determines the attribute levels of a categorical variable, the ordinal information among the attribute levels can be exploited. This enables us to simultaneously describe and monitor continuous and categorical data in a unified framework of standardized ranks, based on which a multivariate exponentially weighted moving average control chart is proposed. This control chart specializes in detecting location shifts in continuous data and in latent continuous distributions of categorical data. Numerical simulations show that our proposed chart can efficiently detect location shifts and is robust to various distributions.
传统的统计过程控制工具要么针对连续数据,要么针对分类数据,但很少同时针对两者。然而,由连续观测和分类观测组成的混合型数据在现代制造过程和服务管理中变得越来越普遍。然而,它们不能用传统的方法来分析。通过假设存在一个决定分类变量属性级别的潜在连续变量,可以利用属性级别之间的顺序信息。这使我们能够在标准化排名的统一框架中同时描述和监测连续和分类数据,并在此基础上提出了多元指数加权移动平均控制图。这种控制图专门用于检测连续数据和分类数据的潜在连续分布中的位置变化。数值模拟结果表明,所提出的图能够有效地检测位置偏移,并且对各种分布具有鲁棒性。
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引用次数: 9
Channel coordination on fixed-term maintenance outsourcing contracts 定期维修外包合同的渠道协调
Pub Date : 2016-01-28 DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2015.1122255
R. Pascual, Gabriel Santelices, H. Liao, S. Maturana
ABSTRACT This article studies the positive and negative effects that fixed-term maintenance contracts may have on related decision-making. We present an original model to estimate such effects and select the optimal preventive maintenance intervals and contract terms for pieces of equipment that are serviced by an external party. In the context of the contract, the intention of each party is in general to maximize its own profit, which usually leads to unaligned interests and decisions. To resolve this issue, we propose incentive schemes to ensure the contract sustainability by achieving channel coordination between the client and its service vendor. Special focus is put on how the performed net-present-value analysis of both parties affects decision-making regarding equipment maintenance. Our model considers a new alternative of negotiating contracts with non-constant maintenance intervals. The proposed model helps to identify conditions that justify maintenance deferrals with their associated negligence, in terms of life cycle reduction and performance deterioration, when no channel coordination is promoted. Additionally, we present a simple procedure to settle an optimal contract duration, benefiting both parties. The proposed methodology is tested using a baseline case study from the literature. It illustrates how return-on-investment analysis may significantly impact optimal maintenance intervals during the contract for both parties. Accordingly, incentives need to be re-evaluated to achieve channel coordination. The suggested approach can be easily implemented in commercial spreadsheets, facilitating sensitivity analyses.
摘要本文研究了固定期限维修合同对相关决策可能产生的积极和消极影响。我们提出了一个原始模型来估计这种影响,并为由外部方服务的设备选择最佳的预防性维护间隔和合同条款。在合同的背景下,各方的意图一般都是最大化自己的利益,这通常会导致利益和决策不一致。为了解决这一问题,我们提出了激励方案,通过实现客户与其服务供应商之间的渠道协调来确保合同的可持续性。特别关注双方的净现值分析如何影响有关设备维护的决策。我们的模型考虑了具有非恒定维护间隔的谈判合同的新选择。所提出的模型有助于确定在没有促进渠道协调的情况下,在生命周期缩短和性能下降方面,维护延迟及其相关疏忽是合理的。此外,我们提出了一个简单的程序来解决最优的合同期限,有利于双方。使用文献中的基线案例研究对提出的方法进行了测试。它说明了投资回报率分析如何显著影响合同双方的最佳维护间隔。因此,需要重新评估激励机制以实现渠道协调。建议的方法可以很容易地在商业电子表格中实现,促进敏感性分析。
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引用次数: 17
Guaranteeing performance based on time-stability for energy-efficient data centers 为高能效数据中心提供基于时间稳定性的性能保障
Pub Date : 2016-01-19 DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2015.1126003
Soongeol Kwon, N. Gautam
ABSTRACT We consider a system of multiple parallel single-server queues where servers are heterogeneous with resources of different capacities and can be powered on or off while running at different speeds when they are powered on. In addition, we assume that application requests are heterogeneous with different workload distributions and resource requirements and the arrival, rates of request are time-varying. Managing such a heterogeneous, transient, and non-stationary system is a tremendous challenge. We take an unconventional approach, in that we force the queue lengths in each powered-on server to be time-stable (i.e., stationary). It allows the operators to guarantee performance and effectively monitor the system. We formulate a mixed-integer program to minimize energy costs while satisfying time-stability. Simulation results show that our suggested approach can stabilize queue length distributions and provide probabilistic performance guarantees on waiting times.
我们考虑一个由多个并行单服务器队列组成的系统,其中服务器是异构的,具有不同容量的资源,并且可以在上电时以不同的速度打开或关闭。此外,我们假设应用程序请求是异构的,具有不同的工作负载分布和资源需求,并且请求的到达率随时间变化。管理这样一个异构、瞬态和非平稳的系统是一个巨大的挑战。我们采用了一种非常规的方法,因为我们强制每个启动的服务器中的队列长度是时间稳定的(即静止的)。它使操作人员能够保证性能并有效地监控系统。我们制定了一个混合整数方案,以最小化能源消耗,同时满足时间稳定性。仿真结果表明,该方法可以稳定队列长度分布,并在等待时间上提供概率性能保证。
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引用次数: 9
Probability distribution of CUSUM charting statistics CUSUM图表统计的概率分布
Pub Date : 2016-01-14 DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2015.1067736
Wenpo Huang, L. Shu, Junjie Cao, K. Tsui
Abstract In parallel to the conventional study of the distribution of the first time to signal, this paper investigates the probability distribution of the article Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) charting statistics based on a recurrence relationship. The probability distribution of the CUSUM statistic can not only provide statistical significance of observations against the null hypothesis of being in control but also facilitate the analysis of the CUSUM chart in the steady-state scenario. Both the conditional case (CUSUM chart without restarting) and the cyclical case (CUSUM chart with restarting) are considered. It is shown that the distribution of CUSUM charts both with and without restarting approaches a stationary distribution, independent of their initial values. We also show that the null steady-state distribution of the unbounded CUSUM chart previously reported in the literature is a special case of this article as the control limit approaches infinity.
摘要:在研究信号首次分布的传统方法的基础上,本文研究了基于递归关系的文章累加和(CUSUM)图表统计的概率分布。CUSUM统计量的概率分布不仅可以提供观测值对控制的零假设的统计显著性,而且可以方便地分析稳态情景下的CUSUM图。条件情况(未重新启动的CUSUM图表)和循环情况(重新启动的CUSUM图表)都会被考虑。结果表明,无论重新启动与否,CUSUM图的分布都接近平稳分布,与初始值无关。我们还证明了先前文献中报道的无界CUSUM图的零稳态分布是本文在控制极限趋于无穷时的特殊情况。
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引用次数: 4
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IIE Transactions
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