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A novel strategy for redundant components in reliability--redundancy allocation problems 可靠性冗余组件的一种新策略——冗余分配问题
Pub Date : 2016-05-26 DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2016.1189631
Mostafa Abouei Ardakan, M. Sima, Ali Zeinal Hamadani, D. Coit
ABSTRACT This article presents a new interpretation and formulation of the Reliability–Redundancy Allocation Problem (RRAP) and demonstrates that solutions to this new problem provide distinct advantages compared with traditional approaches. Using redundant components is a common method to increase the reliability of a system. In order to add the redundant components to a system or a subsystem, there are two traditional types of strategies called active and standby redundancy. Recently a new redundancy strategy, called the “mixed” strategy, has been introduced. It has been proved that in the Redundancy Allocation Problem (RAP), this new strategy has a better performance compared with active and standby strategies alone. In this article, the recently introduced mixed strategy is implemented in the RRAP, which is more complicated than the RAP, and the results of using the mixed strategy are compared with the active and standby strategies. To analyze the performance of the new approach, some benchmark problems on the RRAP are selected and the mixed strategy is used to optimize the system reliability in these situations. Finally, the reliability of benchmark problems with the mixed strategy is compared with the best results of the systems when active or standby strategies are considered. The final results show that the mixed strategy results in an improvement in the reliability of all the benchmark problems and the new strategy outperforms the active and standby strategies in RRAP.
本文提出了可靠性冗余分配问题(RRAP)的一种新的解释和表述,并论证了该问题的解决方案与传统方法相比具有明显的优势。使用冗余组件是提高系统可靠性的常用方法。为了将冗余组件添加到系统或子系统中,有两种传统类型的策略,称为活动冗余和备用冗余。最近引入了一种新的冗余策略,称为“混合”策略。实验证明,在冗余分配问题(RAP)中,该策略比单独的主备策略具有更好的性能。本文将新引入的混合策略应用于比RAP更复杂的RRAP中,并将混合策略的使用结果与主备策略进行了比较。为了分析新方法的性能,选择了RRAP上的一些基准问题,并采用混合策略对这些情况下的系统可靠性进行了优化。最后,将混合策略下基准问题的可靠性与考虑主动或备用策略时系统的最佳结果进行了比较。最后的结果表明,混合策略提高了所有基准问题的可靠性,并且新策略优于RRAP中的主备策略。
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引用次数: 69
The value of demand forecast updates in managing component procurement for assembly systems 需求预测更新在装配系统部件采购管理中的价值
Pub Date : 2016-05-26 DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2016.1189630
James Cao, K. C. So
ABSTRACT This article examines the value of demand forecast updates in an assembly system where a single assembler must order components from independent suppliers with different lead times. By staggering each ordering time, the assembler can utilize the latest market information, as it is developed, to form a better forecast over time. The updated forecast can subsequently be used to decide the following procurement decision. The objective of this research is to understand the specific operating environment under which demand forecast updates are most beneficial. Using a uniform demand adjustment model, we are able to derive analytical results that allow us to quantify the impact of demand forecast updates. We show that forecast updates can drastically improve profitability by reducing the mismatch cost caused by demand uncertainty.
本文研究了在装配系统中需求预测更新的价值,其中单个装配商必须从具有不同交货时间的独立供应商处订购组件。通过错开每次订货时间,装配商可以利用最新的市场信息,随着时间的推移,形成一个更好的预测。更新后的预测随后可用于决定以下采购决策。本研究的目的是了解需求预测更新最有益的具体运营环境。使用统一的需求调整模型,我们能够得出分析结果,使我们能够量化需求预测更新的影响。我们表明,预测更新可以通过减少由需求不确定性引起的不匹配成本来大幅提高盈利能力。
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引用次数: 3
Integrated storage space allocation and ship scheduling problem in bulk cargo terminals 散货码头综合存储空间分配与船舶调度问题
Pub Date : 2016-05-03 DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2015.1063791
Lixin Tang, Defeng Sun, Jiyin Liu
ABSTRACT This study is motivated by the practices of large iron and steel companies that have steady and heavy demands for bulk raw materials, such as iron ore, coal, limestone, etc. These materials are usually transported to a bulk cargo terminal by ships (or to a station by trains). Once unloaded, they are moved to and stored in a bulk material stockyard, waiting for retrieval for use in production. Efficient storage space allocation and ship scheduling are critical to achieving high space utilization, low material loss, and low transportation costs. In this article, we study the integrated storage space allocation and ship scheduling problem in the bulk cargo terminal. Our problem is different from other associated problems due to the special way that the materials are transported and stored. A novel mixed-integer programming model is developed and then solved using a Benders decomposition algorithm, which is enhanced by the use of various valid inequalities, combinatorial Benders cuts, variable reduction tests, and an iterative heuristic procedure. Computational results indicate that the proposed solution method is much more efficient than the standard solution software CPLEX.
本研究的动机是大型钢铁公司的实践,这些公司对铁矿石、煤炭、石灰石等大宗原材料有稳定和大量的需求。这些材料通常由船舶运输到散货码头(或由火车运输到车站)。一旦卸下,它们就被转移到散装物料堆场并储存起来,等待在生产中使用。有效的存储空间分配和船舶调度是实现高空间利用率、低材料损耗和低运输成本的关键。本文主要研究散货码头的仓储空间分配与船舶调度问题。我们的问题不同于其他相关的问题,因为材料的运输和储存方式是特殊的。提出了一种新的混合整数规划模型,并利用Benders分解算法进行求解,该算法通过使用各种有效不等式、组合Benders切割、变量约简检验和迭代启发式过程得到增强。计算结果表明,所提出的求解方法比标准求解软件CPLEX的求解效率高得多。
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引用次数: 21
The effect of buffers and work sharing on makespan improvement of small batches in assembly lines under learning effects 学习效应下缓冲和工作分担对装配线小批量完工时间改进的影响
Pub Date : 2016-05-03 DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2015.1056392
Y. Bukchin, E. Wexler
Abstract The effect of workers’ learning curves on the production rate in manual assembly lines is significant when producing relatively small batches of different products. This research studies this effect and suggests applying a work-sharing mechanism among the workers to improve the makespan (time to complete the batch). The proposed mechanism suggests that adjacent cross-trained workers will help each other in order to reduce idle times caused by blockage and starvation. The effect of work sharing and buffers on the makespan is studied and compared with a baseline situation, where the line does not contain any buffers and work sharing is not applied. Several linear programming and mixed-integer linear programming formulations for makespan minimization are presented. These formulations provide optimal work allocations to stations and optimal parameters of the work-sharing mechanism. A numerical study is conducted to examine the effect of buffers and work sharing on the makespan reduction in different environment settings. Numerical results are given along with some recommendations regarding the system design and operation.
在手工装配线中,当生产相对小批量的不同产品时,工人的学习曲线对生产率的影响是显著的。本研究研究了这一效应,并建议在工人之间应用工作共享机制来提高makespan(完成批次的时间)。拟议的机制表明,相邻的交叉训练的工人将相互帮助,以减少堵塞和饥饿造成的闲置时间。研究了工作共享和缓冲区对makespan的影响,并与基线情况进行了比较,在基线情况下,生产线不包含任何缓冲区,也不应用工作共享。给出了最大跨度最小化的几种线性规划和混合整数线性规划公式。这些公式为工位提供了最优的工作分配和工作分担机制的最优参数。通过数值研究,考察了缓冲和工作分担对不同环境下最大完工时间缩减的影响。给出了数值结果,并对系统的设计和运行提出了建议。
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引用次数: 5
A false discovery approach for scanning spatial disease clusters with arbitrary shapes 一种用于扫描任意形状空间疾病簇的错误发现方法
Pub Date : 2016-04-25 DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2015.1133940
Yanting Li, L. Shu, F. Tsung
ABSTRACT The spatial scan statistic is one of the main tools for testing the presence of clusters in a geographical region. The recently proposed Fast Subset Scan (FSS) method represents an important extension, as it is computationally efficient and enables detection of clusters with arbitrary shapes. Aimed at automatically and simultaneously detecting multiple clusters of any shapes, this article explores the False Discovery (FD) approach originated from multiple hypothesis testing. We show that the FD approach can provide a higher detection power and better identification capability than the standard scan and FSS methods, on average.
空间扫描统计量是检测地理区域内集群是否存在的主要工具之一。最近提出的快速子集扫描(FSS)方法是一种重要的扩展,因为它具有计算效率,并且可以检测任意形状的簇。为了自动同时检测任意形状的多个聚类,本文探讨了基于多假设检验的错误发现(FD)方法。我们表明,平均而言,FD方法可以提供比标准扫描和FSS方法更高的检测功率和更好的识别能力。
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引用次数: 1
Lévy-driven non-Gaussian Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes for degradation-based reliability analysis 基于退化的可靠性分析的l<s:1>驱动非高斯Ornstein-Uhlenbeck过程
Pub Date : 2016-04-13 DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2016.1172743
Y. Shu, Q. Feng, E. P. Kao, Hao Liu
ABSTRACT We use Lévy subordinators and non-Gaussian Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes to model the evolution of degradation with random jumps. The superiority of our models stems from the flexibility of such processes in the modeling of stylized features of degradation data series such as jumps, linearity/nonlinearity, symmetry/asymmetry, and light/heavy tails. Based on corresponding Fokker–Planck equations, we derive explicit results for the reliability function and lifetime moments in terms of Laplace transforms, represented by Lévy measures. Numerical experiments are used to demonstrate that our general models perform well and are applicable for analyzing a large number of degradation phenomena. More important, they provide us with a new methodology to deal with multi-degradation processes under dynamicenvironments.
摘要本文利用lsamvy从属子和非高斯Ornstein-Uhlenbeck过程来模拟随机跳跃退化的演化。我们的模型的优势在于这些过程在建模退化数据系列的风格化特征(如跳跃、线性/非线性、对称/不对称、轻尾/重尾)时的灵活性。基于相应的Fokker-Planck方程,我们得到了可靠度函数和寿命矩的拉普拉斯变换的显式结果,用lsamvy测度表示。数值实验表明,该模型具有良好的性能,适用于分析大量的退化现象。更重要的是,它们为我们提供了一种新的方法来处理动态环境下的多重降解过程。
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引用次数: 18
A new budget allocation framework for selecting top simulated designs 一种新的顶级仿真设计选择预算分配框架
Pub Date : 2016-04-06 DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2016.1156788
Siyang Gao, Weiwei Chen
ABSTRACT In this article, the problem of selecting an optimal subset from a finite set of simulated designs is considered. Given the total simulation budget constraint, the selection problem aims to maximize the Probability of Correct Selection (PCS) of the top m designs. To simplify the complexity of the PCS, an approximated probability measure is developed and an asymptotically optimal solution of the resulting problem is derived. A subset selection procedure, which is easy to implement in practice, is then designed. More important, we provide some useful insights on characterizing an efficient subset selection rule and how it can be achieved by adjusting the simulation budgets allocated to all of the designs.
摘要本文考虑了从有限的模拟设计集合中选择最优子集的问题。在总仿真预算约束下,选择问题的目标是最大化前m个设计的正确选择概率(PCS)。为了简化PCS的复杂性,提出了一个近似的概率测度,并给出了问题的渐近最优解。然后设计了一个易于实现的子集选择程序。更重要的是,我们提供了一些关于描述有效子集选择规则的有用见解,以及如何通过调整分配给所有设计的仿真预算来实现它。
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引用次数: 33
SPSTS: A sequential procedure for estimating the steady-state mean using standardized time series SPSTS:使用标准化时间序列估计稳态平均值的顺序程序
Pub Date : 2016-04-06 DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2016.1163443
C. Alexopoulos, D. Goldsman, Peng Tang, James R. Wilson
ABSTRACT This article presents SPSTS, an automated sequential procedure for computing point and Confidence-Interval (CI) estimators for the steady-state mean of a simulation-generated process subject to user-specified requirements for the CI coverage probability and relative half-length. SPSTS is the first sequential method based on Standardized Time Series (STS) area estimators of the steady-state variance parameter (i.e., the sum of covariances at all lags). Whereas its leading competitors rely on the method of batch means to remove bias due to the initial transient, estimate the variance parameter, and compute the CI, SPSTS relies on the signed areas corresponding to two orthonormal STS area variance estimators for these tasks. In successive stages of SPSTS, standard tests for normality and independence are applied to the signed areas to determine (i) the length of the warm-up period, and (ii) a batch size sufficient to ensure adequate convergence of the associated STS area variance estimators to their limiting chi-squared distributions. SPSTS's performance is compared experimentally with that of recent batch-means methods using selected test problems of varying degrees of difficulty. SPSTS performed comparatively well in terms of its average required sample size as well as the coverage and average half-length of the final CIs.
本文介绍了SPSTS,一种自动顺序程序,用于计算模拟生成过程的稳态均值的点和置信区间(CI)估计量,该过程受用户指定的CI覆盖概率和相对半长要求的约束。SPSTS是第一个基于稳态方差参数(即所有滞后协方差之和)的标准化时间序列(STS)面积估计的序列方法。其主要竞争对手依赖于批处理方法来消除由于初始瞬态引起的偏差,估计方差参数并计算CI,而SPSTS依赖于对应于两个正交STS区域方差估计器的带符号区域来完成这些任务。在SPSTS的连续阶段中,标准的正态性和独立性测试应用于签名区域,以确定(i)预热期的长度,以及(ii)足以确保相关的STS区域方差估计量充分收敛到其极限卡方分布的批量大小。通过选择不同难度的测试问题,将SPSTS的性能与最近的批均值方法进行了实验比较。SPSTS在平均所需样本量以及最终ci的覆盖范围和平均半长方面表现相对较好。
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引用次数: 13
Periodic inspection frequency and inventory policies for a k-out-of-n system k-out- n系统的定期检查频率和库存策略
Pub Date : 2016-04-02 DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2015.1122253
Erik T. S. Bjarnason, S. Taghipour
ABSTRACT We investigate the maintenance and inventory policy for a k-out-of-n system where the components' failures are hidden and follow a non-homogeneous Poisson process. Two types of inspections are performed to find failed components: planned periodic inspections and unplanned opportunistic inspections. The latter are performed at system failure times when n − k +1 components are simultaneously down. In all cases, the failed components are either minimally repaired or replaced with spare parts from the inventory. The inventory is replenished either periodically or when the system fails. The periodic orders have a random lead-time, but there is no lead-time for emergency orders, as these are placed at system failure times. The key objective is to develop a method to solve the joint maintenance and inventory problem for systems with a large number of components, long planning horizon, and large inventory. We construct a simulation model to jointly optimize the periodic inspection interval, the periodic reorder interval, and periodic and emergency order-up-to levels. Due to the large search space, it is infeasible to try all possible combinations of decision variables in a reasonable amount of time. Thus, the simulation model is integrated with a heuristic search algorithm to obtain the optimal solution.
摘要本文研究了k-out- n系统的维修和库存策略,其中组件故障是隐藏的,并且遵循非齐次泊松过程。执行两种类型的检查来发现不合格的组件:计划的定期检查和计划外的机会检查。后者在系统故障时执行,当n−k +1个组件同时关闭时。在所有情况下,故障部件要么进行最低限度的维修,要么用库存中的备件进行更换。库存定期或当系统出现故障时进行补充。定期订单的交货时间是随机的,但紧急订单没有交货时间,因为这些订单是在系统故障时交货的。关键目标是开发一种解决具有大量部件、长规划周期和大库存的系统的联合维护和库存问题的方法。我们建立了一个仿真模型来共同优化定期检查间隔、定期再订货间隔、定期和紧急订货至级。由于搜索空间很大,在合理的时间内尝试所有可能的决策变量组合是不可能的。因此,将仿真模型与启发式搜索算法相结合,以获得最优解。
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引用次数: 33
An online sparse estimation-based classification approach for real-time monitoring in advanced manufacturing processes from heterogeneous sensor data 基于在线稀疏估计的先进制造过程异构传感器数据实时监控分类方法
Pub Date : 2016-03-30 DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2015.1122254
K. Bastani, Prahalada K. Rao, Z. Kong
ABSTRACT The objective of this work is to realize real-time monitoring of process conditions in advanced manufacturing using multiple heterogeneous sensor signals. To achieve this objective we propose an approach invoking the concept of sparse estimation called online sparse estimation-based classification (OSEC). The novelty of the OSEC approach is in representing data from sensor signals as an underdetermined linear system of equations and subsequently solving the underdetermined linear system using a newly developed greedy Bayesian estimation method. We apply the OSEC approach to two advanced manufacturing scenarios, namely, a fused filament fabrication additive manufacturing process and an ultraprecision semiconductor chemical–mechanical planarization process. Using the proposed OSEC approach, process drifts are detected and classified with higher accuracy compared with popular machine learning techniques. Process drifts were detected and classified with a fidelity approaching 90% (F-score) using OSEC. In comparison, conventional signal analysis techniques—e.g., neural networks, support vector machines, quadratic discriminant analysis, naïve Bayes—were evaluated with F-score in the range of 40% to 70%.
本研究的目的是利用多种异构传感器信号实现先进制造过程状态的实时监控。为了实现这一目标,我们提出了一种调用稀疏估计概念的方法,称为基于在线稀疏估计的分类(OSEC)。OSEC方法的新颖之处在于将传感器信号中的数据表示为欠定线性方程组,然后使用新开发的贪婪贝叶斯估计方法求解欠定线性方程组。我们将OSEC方法应用于两种先进的制造方案,即熔丝制造增材制造工艺和超精密半导体化学机械平面化工艺。与流行的机器学习技术相比,使用所提出的OSEC方法可以以更高的精度检测和分类过程漂移。使用OSEC检测和分类过程漂移,保真度接近90% (f得分)。相比之下,传统的信号分析技术——例如。,神经网络,支持向量机,二次判别分析,naïve贝叶斯,f得分在40%到70%之间。
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引用次数: 49
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