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Global Spread and Socio-Economic Determinants of COVID-19 Pandemic COVID-19大流行的全球传播和社会经济决定因素
Pub Date : 2020-11-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3748209
Varinder Jain, Lakhwinder Singh
Covid-19 pandemic being highly lethal has spread so swiftly across the globe that it has infected more than three million persons across 209 countries within a short time-span of 107 days since January 13, 2020 Given such situation, this paper examines differences across countries in terms of Covid-19 infections, testing and deaths A novel approach has been developed to examine socio-economic variables that determine a nation's exposure to Covid-19 infections and deaths The most important methodological contribution has been to devise an objective criterion for identifying the best and worst performing nations in terms of controlling infection and mortality of human beings An important finding emerging from the regression analysis establishes the fact that democracy and good governance plays significant role in curtailing mortality rates But, at the same time, there also takes place a rise in infected patients in the presence of democracy and higher per capita income These inferences are found to be robust and replicated on subsequent regression analysis of 24 33 million infections by August 27, 2020 The policy implication that results from the analysis is that in the absence of definite treatment (like vaccine), physical / social distancing, masks and hand-hygiene etc can save humans from infections and mortality
鉴于这种情况,本文分析了各国在Covid-19感染方面的差异,自2020年1月13日以来,在短短107天内,Covid-19大流行在全球范围内迅速蔓延,在209个国家感染了300多万人。已经开发了一种新的方法来检查决定一个国家感染Covid-19和死亡的社会经济变量,最重要的方法贡献是设计了一个客观标准,用于确定在控制人类感染和死亡率方面表现最好和最差的国家。回归分析得出的重要发现表明,民主和善治发挥着重要作用但与此同时,在民主和人均收入较高的情况下,感染患者也会增加,这些推论被发现是强有力的,并在随后对截至2020年8月27日的2433万感染病例进行的回归分析中得到了重复。口罩和手卫生等可以使人类免于感染和死亡
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引用次数: 12
Modeling Turning Points In Global Equity Market 全球股票市场转折点建模
Pub Date : 2020-11-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3727784
D. Ahelegbey, Monica Billio, R. Casarin
Turning points in financial markets are often characterized by changes in the direction and/or magnitude of market movements with short-to-long term impacts on investors' decisions. This paper develops a Bayesian technique to turning point detection in financial equity markets. We derive the interconnectedness among stock market returns from a piece-wise network vector autoregressive model. The empirical application examines turning points in global equity market over the past two decades. We also compare the COVID-19 induced interconnectedness with that of the global financial crisis in 2008 to identify similarities and the most central market for spillover propagation.
金融市场的转折点通常以市场运动方向和/或幅度的变化为特征,这些变化对投资者的决策有短期到长期的影响。本文提出了一种贝叶斯技术用于金融股票市场的拐点检测。我们从一个分段网络向量自回归模型中推导出股票市场收益之间的相互关联性。实证应用考察了过去20年全球股市的拐点。我们还将COVID-19引发的互联性与2008年全球金融危机的互联性进行了比较,以找出相似之处和溢出效应传播的最核心市场。
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引用次数: 1
Technology and Foreign Direct Investment’s Relationship With Trade 技术、外商直接投资与贸易的关系
Pub Date : 2020-10-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3740012
Martha Latinggi
Trade plays an important role in contributing towards the economic performance of a country. For certain country, especially small nations, trade performance affect significantly the gross domestic product (GDP) of a country. In discussing this, there is a large body of literature which explain factors that influence trade. Population of trading countries, bilateral exchange rate, income of trading countries, trade agreements involving trading nations, geographical distance between trading nations, geographical condition between trading countries, the existence of multinational companies in partner trading countries, historical connection and similarities of language, foreign direct investment and technological advancement and adaptation, culture and food are among factors that have been discussed extensively in the literature.
贸易在促进一个国家的经济表现方面起着重要作用。对于某些国家,特别是小国,贸易绩效显著影响一个国家的国内生产总值(GDP)。在讨论这个问题时,有大量的文献解释了影响贸易的因素。贸易国的人口、双边汇率、贸易国的收入、贸易国的贸易协定、贸易国之间的地理距离、贸易国之间的地理条件、伙伴贸易国是否存在跨国公司、语言的历史联系和相似性、外国直接投资和技术进步与适应。文化和食物是文献中广泛讨论的因素之一。
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引用次数: 0
The global state of mental health: trends and correlates 全球精神卫生状况:趋势和相关因素
Pub Date : 2020-10-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3425624
Sumit S. Deole
While mental health issues often hijack public health debates, a comprehensive analysis describing the state of global mental health is missing from the economics literature. This paper uses extensive country-level panel data for 170 countries spanning between 1990 and 2015 and provides new evidence on the trends and correlates of mental health. Contrary to popular belief, the mental health situation has been relatively stable globally and has shown slight improvement since the early 2000s. The improvement applies to male and female populations residing in richer and poorer countries in the world. The analysis of other mental illnesses shows that the state of depression disorders improved, whereas eating disorders, bipolar disorders, and Schizophrenia worsened during the sample period. Notably, the prevalence of drug and alcohol abuse disorders and anxiety disorders did not observe any change. Concerning country-level correlates of mental health, findings show that obesity prevalence is associated with worsened mental health, whereas HDI improves mental health. Interestingly, the country's access to digital technology (internet and mobile usage) and measures such as educational attainment, life expectancy, per capita healthcare spending, and per capita GDP are not associated with overall mental health. Finally, analysis of the gender gap in mental health indicates that mobile subscription rates are associated with reducing the gender gap, whereas obesity prevalence is related to its widening.
虽然心理健康问题经常成为公共卫生辩论的主题,但经济学文献中缺乏描述全球心理健康状况的全面分析。本文使用了1990年至2015年间170个国家的广泛国家级面板数据,并提供了有关心理健康趋势和相关因素的新证据。与普遍看法相反,全球精神健康状况相对稳定,自2000年代初以来略有改善。这种改善适用于居住在世界上较富裕和较贫穷国家的男性和女性人口。对其他精神疾病的分析表明,抑郁症的状态有所改善,而饮食失调、双相情感障碍和精神分裂症在样本期间恶化。值得注意的是,药物和酒精滥用障碍以及焦虑症的患病率没有任何变化。关于国家层面的心理健康相关因素,研究结果表明,肥胖患病率与心理健康恶化有关,而人类发展指数则能改善心理健康。有趣的是,该国的数字技术(互联网和手机使用)以及教育程度、预期寿命、人均医疗保健支出和人均国内生产总值等指标与总体心理健康状况无关。最后,对心理健康方面性别差距的分析表明,手机订阅率与缩小性别差距有关,而肥胖流行率与性别差距扩大有关。
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引用次数: 1
Analyzing Structural Breaks and Volatility Spillover due to Infectious Disease in Japan: Using Spillover Networks 基于溢出网络的日本传染病结构断裂与波动溢出分析
Pub Date : 2020-10-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3715379
Hideto Shigemoto, Takayuki Morimoto
In this paper, we investigate structural breaks and volatility spillover effects on the Japanese stock market. To detect structural breaks, we use an iterated cumulative sum of squares (ICSS) algorithm, which can identify multiple change points. To measure the volatility spillover effect, we apply the BEKK-GARCH model. As a result, many sectors have structural breaks that occurred after the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) shock after January 2020. Furthermore, we find that the transportation sector is heavily affected by volatility spillover during years of infectious disease outbreaks and a pure economic shock affects the financial sector.
本文研究了结构性断裂和波动溢出效应对日本股市的影响。为了检测结构断裂,我们使用迭代累积平方和(ICSS)算法,该算法可以识别多个变化点。为了衡量波动溢出效应,我们采用了BEKK-GARCH模型。因此,在2020年1月之后,许多行业都出现了在2019年新型冠状病毒病(COVID-19)冲击之后出现的结构性断裂。此外,我们发现,在传染病爆发的年份,运输部门受到波动溢出的严重影响,而纯粹的经济冲击会影响金融部门。
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引用次数: 0
Online Appendix to the Deterrent Effect of Tort Law: Evidence from Medical Malpractice Reform 侵权行为法的威慑效应:来自医疗事故改革的证据
Pub Date : 2020-10-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3319933
Zenon Zabinski, Bernard Black
Full article is at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2161362

This online appendix contains additional results for Zabinski and Black (2020), The Deterrent Effect of Tort Law: Evidence from Medical Malpractice Reform.

全文见:http://ssrn.com/abstract=2161362This在线附录包含Zabinski和Black(2020)的其他结果,侵权法的威慑效应:来自医疗事故改革的证据。
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引用次数: 1
The impact of COVID-19 on valuations of non-financial European firms 新冠肺炎疫情对欧洲非金融企业估值的影响
Pub Date : 2020-10-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3705462
S. Rizvi, L. Yarovaya, Nawazish Mirza, Bushra Naqvi
This paper assesses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on valuation of non-financial firms in the European Union (EU) using a stress testing scenario approach. Particularly, the paper investigates to what extent the COVID-19 may deteriorate the value of non-financial firms in the 10 EU countries in order to provide a robust anchor to policy makers in formulating strategic government interventions. We utilize a sample of 5342 listed non-financial firms across 10 EU member states that have consistent analyst coverage from 2010 to 2019. First, we estimate the input sensitivities of free cash flow and residual income models using a random effect panel employed to in-sample data. Second, based on these sensitivities, we compute the model driven ex post valuations and compare their robustness with actual price and analyst forecasts for the same period. Finally, we introduce multiple stress scenarios that may emanate from COVID-19, i.e. decline in expected sales and increase/decrease in cost of equity.Our findings show a significant loss in valuations across all sectors due to a possible decline in sales and increase in cost of equity. In the extreme cases, average firms in some sectors may lose up to 60% of their intrinsic value in one year. The results remained consistent regardless of the cash flow or residual income driven valuation. While the impact of global financial crisis (2007-2008) and European crisis (2010-2012) on non-financial firms is well-documented, this paper is the first study that analyzed the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the non-financial firms’ valuation in the European Union and reports that pandemic is the main driver behind the shareholder value destruction.
本文使用压力测试情景方法评估了COVID-19大流行对欧盟非金融公司估值的影响。特别是,本文调查了COVID-19可能在多大程度上恶化10个欧盟国家的非金融公司的价值,以便为政策制定者制定战略性政府干预措施提供强有力的依据。我们使用了来自10个欧盟成员国的5342家非金融上市公司的样本,这些公司在2010年至2019年期间都有一致的分析师覆盖。首先,我们使用样本内数据的随机效应面板估计自由现金流和剩余收入模型的输入敏感性。其次,基于这些敏感性,我们计算了模型驱动的事后估值,并将其稳健性与同期的实际价格和分析师预测进行了比较。最后,我们介绍了可能由COVID-19引起的多种压力情景,即预期销售额下降和权益成本增加/减少。我们的研究结果显示,由于销售额可能下降和股权成本增加,所有行业的估值都出现了大幅下降。在极端情况下,某些行业的普通公司可能在一年内损失高达60%的内在价值。无论现金流或剩余收益驱动的估值如何,结果都是一致的。虽然全球金融危机(2007-2008年)和欧洲危机(2010-2012年)对非金融公司的影响有充分的记录,但本文是第一个分析COVID-19危机对欧盟非金融公司估值影响的研究,并报告大流行是股东价值破坏背后的主要驱动因素。
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引用次数: 49
Social Ethics and Balinese Physical Distancing in Reducing the Spread of COVID-19 社会伦理与巴厘人保持身体距离在减少COVID-19传播中的作用
Pub Date : 2020-09-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3693512
I. B. P. Suamba, I Gusti Bagus Rai Utama, Ni Putu Dyah Krismawintari
The purpose of this study is to analyze how effective government policies are in implementing physical distancing in Bali. The survey was conducted to collect data using an online questionnaire by 109 people of different backgrounds and ages. After analyzing the data, the overall conclusion concludes that the appeal for physical distancing did not significantly affect several activities that could predictably increase the transmission of COVID-19 in Bali. On the same page, the COVID-19 outbreak felt by respondents has damaged their jobs in Bali, which is dominated by the tourism sector. It appears that there are two contradictions between physical distancing calls that are viewed as interfering with respondents' work activities. On the other hand, it is predicted that the outbreak of COVID-19 will increase if physical distancing is not performed, which is worse. This study recommended containing the spread of the COVID-19 outbreak.
本研究的目的是分析巴厘政府政策在实施身体距离方面的有效性。该调查通过在线问卷收集数据,调查对象为109名不同背景和年龄的人。在对数据进行分析后,总体结论认为,呼吁保持身体距离并没有显著影响可预见会增加COVID-19在巴厘岛传播的几项活动。与此同时,受访者感受到的COVID-19疫情损害了他们在巴厘岛的工作,巴厘岛以旅游业为主导。在被视为干扰应答者工作活动的物理距离电话之间,似乎存在两种矛盾。另一方面,如果不保持身体距离,预计新冠疫情将进一步扩大。该研究建议控制COVID-19疫情的传播。
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引用次数: 0
Multi-State Health Transition Modeling Using Neural Networks 基于神经网络的多状态健康转移建模
Pub Date : 2020-09-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3699161
Qiqi Wang, Katja Hanewald, Xiaojun Wang
This article proposes a new model that combines a neural network with a generalized linear model (GLM) to estimate and predict health transition intensities. We introduce neural networks to health transition modeling to incorporate socioeconomic and lifestyle factors and to allow for linear and nonlinear relationships between these variables. We use transfer learning to link the models for different health transitions and improve the model estimation for health transitions with limited data. We apply the model to individual-level data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey from 1998–2018. The results show that our model performs better in estimation and prediction than standalone GLM and neural network models. We provide new estimates of the life expectancies for a range of population subgroups. We also describe a wide range of possible applications for further health-related research, including risk prediction using health claim data and mortality prediction based on individual-level mortality data.
本文提出了一种将神经网络与广义线性模型(GLM)相结合的新模型来估计和预测健康转移强度。我们将神经网络引入健康过渡建模,以纳入社会经济和生活方式因素,并允许这些变量之间的线性和非线性关系。我们使用迁移学习来连接不同健康转移的模型,并改进有限数据下健康转移的模型估计。我们将该模型应用于1998-2018年中国纵向健康寿命调查的个人层面数据。结果表明,该模型在估计和预测方面优于独立的GLM模型和神经网络模型。我们对一系列人口亚组的预期寿命提供了新的估计。我们还描述了进一步健康相关研究的广泛可能应用,包括使用健康索赔数据进行风险预测和基于个人水平死亡率数据进行死亡率预测。
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引用次数: 0
A Review of COVID-19 and Its Waterfall Effect on the Changed World 新冠肺炎疫情及其对变化世界的瀑布效应述评
Pub Date : 2020-09-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3688847
M. Kapur, Tirupathi Anand, A. Banerjee
2019 novel coronavirus has affected over 19.3 million people and caused over 718 thousand deaths globally (as at 7 August 2020). The disease was named as “Covid19” and the virus that causes it was Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Corona Virus -2 (SARS-COV-2). On the eve of 2020, when the whole world was celebrating the new year, the virus was unleashing and conquering new territories, minute by minute. So, how come a small virus that is said to have originated from Wuhan, China was able to create such a big havoc? How did a flu-like-symptom virus was able to shackle economies and change the world we live in? What caused Governments to announce relief, fiscal and economic packages to prevent the large-scale economic collapse? The response lies in the way the virus made man-kind to live in the new world. Social distancing was the new norm that led to fewer interactions among people. Next, mass scale shut downs announced by the governments led to closure of financial markets, stock exchanges, corporate offices, exchange of trade as well as several events. No country was immune by the shocks caused by the waterfall effect of COVID19. The compounding rate at which the virus spread hinted several sectors were going to be severely disrupted. The current paper will analyze the waterfall effect of COVID19 on several sectors in the first half of 2020 (Jan to June 2020) and ascertain the fiscal, economic and monetary policies announced by governments in the top 5 affected countries and UAE as at 7 August 2020. The study will qualitatively ascertain how lockdowns and social distancing changed the world we live in and provide certain recommendations for future pandemics/ crises as part of research contribution.
截至2020年8月7日,2019年新型冠状病毒已在全球影响了1930多万人,造成71.8万多人死亡。这种疾病被命名为“covid - 19”,导致它的病毒是严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒-2 (SARS-COV-2)。在2020年前夕,当全世界都在庆祝新年的时候,病毒正在分分钟释放并征服新的领土。那么,一种据说起源于中国武汉的小病毒是如何造成如此大的破坏的呢?一种类似流感症状的病毒是如何束缚经济并改变我们生活的世界的?是什么原因使各国政府宣布救济、财政和经济一揽子计划,以防止大规模的经济崩溃?答案在于病毒如何使人类在新世界中生活。保持社交距离是导致人与人之间互动减少的新常态。接下来,政府宣布的大规模关闭导致金融市场、证券交易所、公司办公室、贸易交易所以及一些活动关闭。没有一个国家能够免受2019冠状病毒病瀑布效应带来的冲击。病毒传播的复合速度暗示,几个部门将受到严重破坏。本文将分析2019冠状病毒病在2020年上半年(2020年1月至6月)对几个行业的瀑布效应,并确定截至2020年8月7日,受影响最大的5个国家和阿联酋政府宣布的财政、经济和货币政策。该研究将定性地确定封锁和社会距离如何改变我们生活的世界,并为未来的流行病/危机提供某些建议,作为研究贡献的一部分。
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引用次数: 0
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Insurance & Financing in Health Economics eJournal
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