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Information Design for Selling Search Goods and the Effect of Competition 搜索商品销售的信息设计与竞争效应
Pub Date : 2021-02-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3790012
Chengyi Lyu
This paper studies a search goods seller's optimal design of consumer pre-search information. Unlike the existing literature, I allow the consumer to have private information on her outside option value, which turns out to be important in shaping the seller's optimal signal. To accommodate this, a relaxed problem approach is developed. When the outside option value has unimodal distribution, I show that the optimal signal would pool all match utilities above a threshold and fully reveal for those below the threshold. Based on this characterization, I provide two comparative statics results. The first shows that higher product quality leads to less accurate pre-search information for consumers. The second shows that allowing the consumer to postpone some search cost leads to lower seller profit and may also (unexpectedly) lead to lower consumer welfare even if the price is fixed. My approach also enables me to consider competition among multiple sellers. In particular, I show that as competition gets increasingly strong, the pre-search information converges to full information, which extends the corresponding result for experience goods. My approach also helps to highlight the key similarity and dissimilarity between information designs for search goods and experience goods, which is discussed throughout the paper.
本文研究了一个搜索商品卖家的消费者预搜索信息优化设计问题。与现有文献不同,我允许消费者拥有关于其外部选择价值的私人信息,这对形成卖方的最佳信号很重要。为了适应这种情况,开发了一种轻松的问题方法。当外部选项值具有单峰分布时,我展示了最优信号将汇集高于阈值的所有匹配效用,并完全显示低于阈值的效用。基于这一特征,我提供了两个比较静态结果。第一个结果表明,较高的产品质量导致消费者预搜索信息的准确性降低。第二个模型表明,即使价格是固定的,允许消费者推迟一些搜索成本会导致卖家利润降低,也可能(出乎意料地)导致消费者福利降低。我的方法也使我能够考虑多个卖家之间的竞争。特别是,我证明了随着竞争的日益激烈,预搜索信息收敛到完全信息,从而扩展了对体验商品的相应结果。我的方法还有助于突出搜索商品和体验商品信息设计之间的关键相似性和差异性,这在整篇论文中都有讨论。
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引用次数: 1
Hybrid Discrete Event/Agent Based Model of Career Development. 基于离散事件/智能体的职业发展混合模型。
Pub Date : 2021-02-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3787438
A. Cherkassky, Eugene Bumagin
This is Part 2 of article dedicated to modeling and simulation of career development processes. The simulation algorithm presented here is built on a combined platform of Discrete Events and Agent Based modeling. Main components of the model are employees/agents, the career history of each of which is reproduced in the model. The model takes into account individual characteristics of the agent, the structure and characteristics of the organization personnel policy and many other random factors inherent in career development processes. The hybrid model consists two main sub-models – the sub-model of the agent flow and the submodel of agents’ interaction, which provides simulation of career development processes. The Part 1 of the article presents the sub-model of the agent flow, which is based on the results of a survey of respondents and on a series of theoretical assumptions that made it possible to construct a Discrete Event model of the agent flow. In this part of the article, we present a detailed algorithm related to the Agent Based submodel of the career development processes. The article addresses the production and career components of the agent activity; two types of career mechanisms – a push and a pull movement; the emergence, development and influence of agent coalitions on career development process; the dynamic processes of the agent activity variation, and a number of other factors affecting the career development process.

The algorithms were implemented in the form of Java code. The program code of the model allows you to track and store the career history of each agent, its interaction with other agents, the effect of the model parameters, and evaluate the contribution of each agent and group of agents to the organization's production achievements.
这是关于职业发展过程建模和仿真的文章的第2部分。本文提出的仿真算法是建立在离散事件和基于Agent的建模相结合的平台上的。模型的主要组成部分是雇员/代理人,每个人的职业历史都在模型中重现。该模型考虑了代理人的个体特征、组织人事政策的结构和特征以及职业发展过程中固有的许多其他随机因素。该混合模型包括两个主要的子模型——代理流子模型和代理交互子模型,提供了职业发展过程的仿真。本文的第1部分介绍了代理流的子模型,该模型基于对受访者的调查结果和一系列理论假设,这些假设使得构建代理流的离散事件模型成为可能。在本文的这一部分,我们提出了一个详细的基于Agent的职业发展过程子模型的算法。本文讨论了代理人活动的生产和职业组成部分;两种职业机制——推式和拉式运动;代理人联盟的产生、发展及其对职业发展过程的影响代理人活动变化的动态过程,以及其他一些影响职业发展过程的因素。算法以Java代码的形式实现。该模型的程序代码允许您跟踪和存储每个agent的职业历史,它与其他agent的交互,模型参数的影响,并评估每个agent和agent组对组织生产成果的贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Quantum Crypto-Economics: Blockchain Prediction Markets for the Evolution of Quantum Technology 量子加密经济学:量子技术演进的区块链预测市场
Pub Date : 2021-01-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3777706
P. Rohde, Vijay Mohan, S. Davidson, C. Berg, Darcy W. E. Allen, G. Brennen, J. Potts
Two of the most important technological advancements currently underway are the advent of quantum technologies, and the transitioning of global financial systems towards cryptographic assets, notably blockchain-based cryptocurrencies and smart contracts. There is, however, an important interplay between the two, given that, in due course, quantum technology will have the ability to directly compromise the cryptographic foundations of blockchain. We explore this complex interplay by building financial models for quantum failure in various scenarios, including pricing quantum risk premiums. We call this ‘quantum crypto-economics’.
目前正在进行的两项最重要的技术进步是量子技术的出现,以及全球金融体系向加密资产的过渡,特别是基于区块链的加密货币和智能合约。然而,这两者之间存在着重要的相互作用,因为在适当的时候,量子技术将有能力直接破坏区块链的加密基础。我们通过在各种情况下建立量子故障的金融模型,包括定价量子风险溢价,来探索这种复杂的相互作用。我们称之为“量子加密经济学”。
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引用次数: 1
Dynamic Portfolio Management with Machine Learning 动态投资组合管理与机器学习
Pub Date : 2021-01-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3770688
Xinyu Huang, Massimo Guidolin, Emmanouil Platanakis, D. Newton
We present a structured portfolio optimization framework with sparse inverse covariance estimation and an attention-based LSTM network that exploits machine learning (deep learning) techniques. We shrink Wishart volatility towards a Graphical Lasso initial covariance estimator and solve the portfolio optimization using a fast coordinate descent algorithm with regularization determined using a genetic algorithm. We further introduce a novel portfolio shrinkage rule using an attention-based Long-Short-Term-Memory (LSTM) network, allowing a formal selection of reference portfolios where the network forecasts future performance based on predetermined out-of-sample monthly certainty equivalent return. We reduce the dimension of successful candidates and then linearly combine them. When nested within a minimum-variance, Bayes-Stein shrinkage, Black-Litterman portfolio framework with four types of weight constraints based on no-short-selling, upper, lower-generalized variance-based restrictions, our approach delivers a clear improvement over the baseline sample-based minimum-variance portfolio and claims superiority over 11 GARCH models used to forecast covariances, as well as a minimum-variance combination of all dynamic optimization models. We provide an illustrative example based on optimal diversification across hedge fund strategies. Robustness checks show our application of sparse covariance dominates the use of a dimension reduction algorithm for Wishart covariance forecasting.
我们提出了一个具有稀疏逆协方差估计的结构化投资组合优化框架和一个利用机器学习(深度学习)技术的基于注意力的LSTM网络。我们将Wishart波动率缩小到图形Lasso初始协方差估计,并使用快速坐标下降算法求解组合优化,正则化由遗传算法确定。我们进一步使用基于注意力的长短期记忆(LSTM)网络引入了一种新的投资组合收缩规则,允许正式选择参考投资组合,其中网络根据预先确定的样本外月度确定性等效回报预测未来表现。我们降低成功候选的维数,然后将它们线性组合。当嵌套在最小方差、贝叶斯-斯坦收缩、Black-Litterman投资组合框架内时,我们的方法比基于基线样本的最小方差投资组合有明显的改进,并且优于用于预测协方差的11个GARCH模型,以及所有动态优化模型的最小方差组合。我们提供了一个基于对冲基金策略的最优多样化的说明性例子。鲁棒性检验表明,稀疏协方差的应用在Wishart协方差预测的降维算法中占主导地位。
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引用次数: 4
Technology and Cryptocurrency Valuation: Evidence from Machine Learning 技术和加密货币估值:来自机器学习的证据
Pub Date : 2021-01-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3577208
Yukun Liu, Jinfei Sheng, Wanyi Wang
This paper studies the role of technological sophistication in Initial Coin Offering (ICO) successes and valuations. Using various machine learning methods, we construct technology indexes from ICO whitepapers to capture technological sophistication for all cryptocurrencies. We find that the cryptocurrencies with high technology indexes are more likely to succeed and less likely to be delisted subsequently. Moreover, the technology indexes strongly and positively predict the long-run performances of the ICOs. Overall, the results suggest that technological sophistication is an important determinant of cryptocurrency valuations.
本文研究了技术成熟度在首次代币发行(ICO)成功和估值中的作用。使用各种机器学习方法,我们从ICO白皮书中构建技术索引,以捕获所有加密货币的技术成熟度。我们发现,技术指数高的加密货币更容易成功,随后退市的可能性更小。此外,技术指标对ico的长期表现具有强烈的正向预测作用。总体而言,结果表明,技术成熟度是加密货币估值的重要决定因素。
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引用次数: 8
An Overview of Technologically Enabled Finance 技术驱动金融概述
Pub Date : 2021-01-25 DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-65117-6_1
David C. Brown, Mingfeng Lin
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引用次数: 2
Discount Schemes for the Preemptible Service of a Cloud Platform with Unutilized Capacity 未利用容量云平台可抢占服务的折扣方案
Pub Date : 2021-01-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3272079
Shi Chen, K. Moinzadeh, Yong Tan
Rapid growth in the cloud industry not only provides tremendous opportunities to cloud providers who have invested heavily in computing capacities, but also leads to low utilization of capacities at times. To alleviate this problem, some providers have launched a low-priority service with the so-called preemptible or spot instances, which allows them to reclaim capacities when necessary. This study focuses on an emerging market segment of customers with fault-tolerant computing jobs, who are the potential users of the preemptible instances. Through an analytical model that captures the underlying supply-demand dynamics, we examine a prevalent discount scheme, which provides all users the same discount, and its impact on key performance measures. Having realized that this is a relatively new market segment and there is room for improvement in discount-scheme designs, we propose an interruption-based discount scheme, which provides compensation to users based on the frequency of interruptions encountered by each of them. Our study suggests that the proposed scheme is fairer than the prevalent scheme from the customers’ perspective and that, in the presence of risk-averse customers, the cloud provider could be better off by adopting the proposed scheme when the supply of the surplus capacity is highly uncertain.
云计算行业的快速增长不仅为在计算能力上投入巨资的云计算提供商提供了巨大的机会,而且有时也会导致容量利用率较低。为了缓解这个问题,一些提供商推出了一种低优先级的服务,这种服务具有所谓的可抢占性或spot实例,允许它们在必要时回收容量。本研究关注的是具有容错计算工作的新兴市场客户,他们是可抢占实例的潜在用户。通过捕获潜在供需动态的分析模型,我们研究了一种普遍的折扣方案,它为所有用户提供相同的折扣,以及它对关键绩效指标的影响。意识到这是一个相对较新的细分市场,折扣方案设计还有改进的空间,我们提出了基于中断的折扣方案,该方案根据每个用户遇到的中断频率向用户提供补偿。我们的研究表明,从客户的角度来看,提议的方案比普遍的方案更公平,并且,在存在风险厌恶的客户的情况下,当剩余容量的供应高度不确定时,云提供商可以通过采用提议的方案获得更好的收益。
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引用次数: 12
Role of Human Resources in Digital Transformation - An Outlook 人力资源在数字化转型中的作用展望
Pub Date : 2021-01-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3759504
Hemantha Y
This is a short article describing Digital transformation as a change-oriented approach that leverages new way of doing the business along with existing businesses across the globe. In prevalent business situations, there is huge transformation of business across industry. The most important thing here is that biggest challenge for all types of organization either small or large it makes sense to adapt digital technology which should sync with the organization. This short article is taken up to explore the various role and nature of Human Resources department in adapting the digital technologies which in turn leads to digital economy. At the same time, it is important that creating value to customers to the customers in digital world is the new challenge in prevalent situation.

这是一篇简短的文章,将数字化转型描述为一种以变革为导向的方法,利用全球现有业务开展业务的新方式。在普遍的业务情况下,跨行业的业务发生了巨大的转变。这里最重要的是,对于所有类型的组织,无论大小,最大的挑战是适应与组织同步的数字技术是有意义的。这篇短文旨在探讨人力资源部门在适应数字技术方面的各种角色和性质,从而导致数字经济。与此同时,为客户创造价值是数字化世界中普遍存在的新挑战。
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引用次数: 1
An Empirical Study of Bioinformatics Topics in Online Forum Discussions 网络论坛讨论中生物信息学主题的实证研究
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3914045
Dibyendu Brinto Bose, Sheikh Hasib Ahmed, Gias Uddin, M. S. Rahman
In this paper, we aim to understand the topics discussed by bioinformatics practitioners in Stack Exchange sites. We downloaded all bioinformatics posts (questions and accepted answers) from four Stack Exchange Q&A sites (Stack Overflow, Biology, Cross-Validated, and Bioinformatics). Then we applied topic modeling on each site data. We labeled the topics and grouped those into high level categories. We analyzed the topics further by determining their popularity, difficulty, and evolution. We have made a comparative analysis of the topics across the different studied sites. We found 14 topics in Stack Overflow that are grouped into six categories. The number of new bioinformatics questions is steadily increasing over time in Stack Overflow for each topic category. Topics related to sequence analysis and pattern detection are the most popular as well as the most difficult to get an accepted answer. Most of the discussion posts are ‘how’ type questions, i.e., the practitioners were looking for solutions. While topics like biodata processing are found in multiple Stack Exchange sites, other topics (e.g., gene evolution analysis) are found in specialized sites (e.g., Biology). These findings show the need for consulting multiple related sites in Stack Exchange to learn interdisciplinary fields like bioinformatics. The tradeoff between popularity and difficulty of the bioinformatics topics highlights that bioinformatics practitioners need documentation and better tool support. The bioinformatics researchers, organizations, and practitioners can look into our results to prioritize the specific areas that need more focus for improvement.
在本文中,我们旨在了解生物信息学从业者在堆栈交换网站上讨论的主题。我们从四个Stack Exchange问答网站(Stack Overflow、Biology、Cross-Validated和bioinformatics)下载了所有的生物信息学帖子(问题和已接受的答案)。然后对每个站点数据应用主题建模。我们给主题打上标签,并把它们分成高级别的类别。我们通过确定主题的受欢迎程度、难度和演变来进一步分析这些主题。我们对不同研究地点的主题进行了比较分析。我们在Stack Overflow中发现了14个主题,分为6类。随着时间的推移,每个主题类别的堆栈溢出中新的生物信息学问题的数量正在稳步增加。与序列分析和模式检测相关的主题是最受欢迎的,也是最难得到公认答案的。大多数讨论帖都是“如何”类型的问题,也就是说,从业者在寻找解决方案。虽然像生物数据处理这样的主题可以在多个Stack Exchange站点中找到,但其他主题(例如,基因进化分析)可以在专门的站点中找到(例如,生物学)。这些发现表明,需要在Stack Exchange的多个相关网站上咨询,以了解生物信息学等跨学科领域。生物信息学主题的受欢迎程度和难度之间的权衡突出了生物信息学从业者需要文档和更好的工具支持。生物信息学研究人员、组织和从业者可以查看我们的结果,优先考虑需要更多关注改进的特定领域。
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引用次数: 0
Industry 4.0 and Triple Bottom Line Sustainability - a Crunch Point for Malaysian SMEs 工业4.0和三重底线可持续发展——马来西亚中小企业的关键所在
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3877180
S. Jayashree, M. Reza, C. Malarvizhi, M. Mohiuddin
Current industrialization has generated many challenges, including ecological hazards, climate change, and overuse of non-renewable natural resources creating an increasing demand for achieving the goal of Triple Bottom Line (TBL). In this regard, Industry 4.0 can contribute to the the production process that can help in achieving sustainable development. Using Dynamic Capability view (DCV), this paper explores the role of Industry 4.0 as firm-level Dynamic Capabilities (DC) to achieving the goals of the triple botton line. Employing simple random sampling, the study adopted a quantitative approach based on 199 useable respondent’s feedback collected through a survey of 900 employees from the Malaysian SMEs. The results exhibit that top management and IT infrastructure significantly impact Industry 4.0 implementation and sustainability. In contrast, the analysis also demonstrates that supply chain integration is insignificant to Industry 4.0 implementation in SMEs. The study findings also show that the relationship between the firm-level DC and TBL sustainability can be mediated by the “effective implementation” of Industry 4.0. The study highlights the practical consequences of the role and use of firm capabilities in Industry 4.0 implementation and findings to notify managers and policy-makers to optimize value creation to achieve the sustainable development goals.
当前的工业化带来了许多挑战,包括生态危害、气候变化和不可再生自然资源的过度使用,这对实现三重底线(TBL)的目标产生了越来越大的需求。在这方面,工业4.0可以为有助于实现可持续发展的生产过程做出贡献。利用动态能力视图(DCV),本文探讨了工业4.0作为企业层面的动态能力(DC)在实现三重底线目标中的作用。本研究采用简单随机抽样的方法,通过对900名马来西亚中小企业员工的调查,收集了199名可用受访者的反馈,采用了定量的方法。结果表明,高层管理和IT基础设施显著影响工业4.0的实施和可持续性。相比之下,分析还表明供应链整合对中小企业实施工业4.0的影响不显著。研究结果还表明,企业层面的DC与TBL可持续性之间的关系可以通过工业4.0的“有效实施”来中介。该研究强调了企业能力在工业4.0实施中的作用和使用的实际后果,并提醒管理人员和政策制定者优化价值创造,以实现可持续发展目标。
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引用次数: 0
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Information Systems & Economics eJournal
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