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Stuck Online: When Online Engagement Gets in the Way of Offline Sales 困在网上:当在线参与妨碍了线下销售
Pub Date : 2020-04-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2672067
Sagit Bar-Gill, Shachar Reichman
In recent years, billions of dollars have been spent by both online and offline retailers on website design aimed at increasing consumers’ online engagement. We study the relationship between online engagement and offline sales, utilizing a quasi-experimental setting in which a leading premium automobile brand gradually launched a new interactive website across markets, allowing for a treatment-control comparison. This paper offers evidence of a causal effect of online engagement on offline sales, with the high-engagement website leading to a decline of approximately 12% in car sales. This negative effect is due to substitution between online and offline engagement; users of the high-engagement website exhibited a decreased tendency to seek out personal contact with a car dealer and proceed to offline engagement—a necessary stage in the car purchase funnel. We develop an analytical model of the online-to-offline sales funnel to generalize our findings and highlight the conditions under which online engagement substitutes for offline engagement and potentially decreases offline sales. Taken together, our findings suggest that while online engagement serves as a means for both product information provision and consumer persuasion, it may fall short in achieving the latter goal, as compared to the offline channel. For purely offline products, hands-on engagement is a necessary step toward purchase. Thus, increasing consumers’ online engagement may not be an optimal strategy if it has the potential to halt progression down the sales funnel and reduce offline engagement.
近年来,在线和线下零售商在网站设计上花费了数十亿美元,旨在提高消费者的在线参与度。我们研究了在线参与和线下销售之间的关系,利用准实验环境,在这个环境中,一个领先的高端汽车品牌逐渐在各个市场上推出了一个新的互动网站,允许进行治疗-对照比较。本文提供了在线参与对线下销售的因果效应的证据,高参与度的网站导致汽车销量下降约12%。这种负面影响是由于线上和线下互动之间的替代;高参与度网站的用户表现出与汽车经销商进行个人接触并进入线下互动的趋势下降,而线下互动是汽车购买渠道的必要阶段。我们开发了一个线上到线下销售漏斗的分析模型,以概括我们的发现,并强调在线参与替代线下参与并可能减少线下销售的条件。综上所述,我们的研究结果表明,尽管在线参与是提供产品信息和说服消费者的一种手段,但与线下渠道相比,它可能无法实现后一个目标。对于纯线下产品,亲身体验是购买的必要步骤。因此,增加消费者的在线参与度可能不是一个最佳策略,如果它有可能阻止销售漏斗的进展并减少线下参与度。
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引用次数: 9
Angry Borrowers: Negative Reciprocity in a Financial Market 愤怒的借款人:金融市场中的负互惠
Pub Date : 2020-04-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3415808
Li Liao, Zhengwei Wang, Hongjun Yan, Jun Yang, Congyi Zhou
We examine the consequences of an intrusive debt-collection tactic that targets delinquent borrowers’ social circles. Our identification strategy relies on the fact that a fraction of delinquent loans are not worked on due to collection agents’ excessive workload. We show that this tactic backfires and increases the borrowers’ default rate by 5.9 to 14.3 percentage points. Male borrowers and borrowers with better credit respond more strongly. Moreover, the effect is concentrated in the period when this collection practice was emerging and likely unexpected. These findings are consistent with the negative reciprocity interpretation: angered borrowers retaliate by defaulting on their loans.
我们研究了针对拖欠借款人社交圈的侵入性债务收集策略的后果。我们的识别策略依赖于这样一个事实,即由于催收代理人的过度工作量,拖欠贷款的一小部分没有得到处理。我们表明,这种策略适得其反,并使借款人的违约率提高了5.9至14.3个百分点。男性借款人和信用较好的借款人的反应更为强烈。此外,这种影响主要集中在这种收集做法出现的时期,而且很可能出乎意料。这些发现与负互惠解释是一致的:愤怒的借款人通过拖欠贷款进行报复。
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引用次数: 5
A Review on System for Identification and Validation of Coin 货币识别与验证系统研究述评
Pub Date : 2020-04-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3563829
Vishal V. Rathi, Sunil Kumar Birla
Currency is a medium of exchange permitted by the government for goods and services. In other words, its money in the form of paper or coins usually issued by government and generally accepted for the purpose of payment. In order to validate this currency, various efficient systems have been proposed to differentiate between original and tampered .In this system the concepts of pattern recognition along with various significant operations like image acquisition ,image format conversion, image segmentation, pattern generation and recognition is used. The proposed system is designed to identify the coins and validate if tampered or original.
货币是政府允许的商品和服务的交换媒介。换句话说,纸币或硬币形式的货币,通常由政府发行,并被普遍接受为支付目的。为了验证这种货币,已经提出了各种有效的系统来区分原始和篡改。在这个系统中,模式识别的概念以及各种重要的操作,如图像采集,图像格式转换,图像分割,模式生成和识别被使用。所提议的系统旨在识别硬币并验证是否被篡改或原始。
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引用次数: 0
Cellular Networks: An Underlying Technology for Mobile Phones, Communication System & Wireless Networking 蜂窝网络:移动电话、通信系统和无线网络的基础技术
Pub Date : 2020-04-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3571508
Dr. Shashiraj Teotia, S. Panwar
Cellular network is a fundamental technology for mobile phones, personal communication systems, wireless networking etc. This technology is developed for mobile phone to replace high power transmitter/receiver systems. It use very low power with a short range and higher rate of data transmission. Cellular network is arranged into multiple low power transmitters with less than of each 100w. The Cellular network offer very high capacity in a limited spectrum. It has the feature of reusability of radio channel in different cells. It also enables a fixed number of channels to serve an arbitrarily large number of users by reusing the channel throughout the coverage region. In cellular network, the communication is always between mobile and base station (not directly between mobiles).
蜂窝网络是移动电话、个人通信系统、无线网络等的基础技术。这项技术是为移动电话开发的,以取代高功率发射/接收系统。它功耗低,传输距离短,数据传输速率高。蜂窝网络被布置成多个低功率发射器,每个发射器的功率小于100w。蜂窝网络在有限的频谱内提供非常高的容量。它具有无线电信道在不同小区内的可重用性。它还通过在整个覆盖区域内重用通道,使固定数量的通道能够为任意数量的用户提供服务。在蜂窝网络中,通信总是在移动设备和基站之间进行(而不是直接在移动设备之间进行)。
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引用次数: 0
Through a Glass, Darkly: Artificial Intelligence and the Problem of Opacity 透过玻璃,黑暗:人工智能和不透明度问题
Pub Date : 2020-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3575534
S. Chesterman
As computer programs become more complex, the ability of non-specialists to understand how a given output has been reached diminishes. Opaqueness may also be built into programs to protect proprietary interests. Both types of systems are capable of being explained, either through recourse to experts or an order to produce information. Another class of system may be naturally opaque, however, using deep learning methods that are impossible to explain in a manner that humans can comprehend. An emerging literature describes these phenomena or specific problems to which they give rise, notably the potential for bias against specific groups. Drawing on examples from the United States, the European Union, and China, this Article develops a novel typology of three discrete regulatory challenges posed by opacity. First, it may encourage—or fail to discourage—inferior decisions by removing the potential for oversight and accountability. Second, it may allow impermissible decisions, notably those that explicitly or implicitly rely on protected categories such as gender or race in making a determination. Third, it may render illegitimate decisions in which the process by which an answer is reached is as important as the answer itself. The means of addressing some or all of these concerns is routinely said to be through transparency. Yet, while proprietary opacity can be dealt with by court order and complex opacity through recourse to experts, naturally opaque systems may require novel forms of “explanation” or an acceptance that some machine-made decisions cannot be explained—or, in the alternative, that some decisions should not be made by machine at all.
随着计算机程序变得越来越复杂,非专业人员理解给定输出是如何达到的能力也在下降。不透明性也可能被嵌入到保护私有利益的程序中。这两种类型的系统都可以通过求助于专家或命令生成信息来解释。然而,另一类系统可能天生不透明,它们使用的深度学习方法无法用人类能够理解的方式来解释。新兴文献描述了这些现象或它们引起的具体问题,特别是对特定群体的偏见。本文以美国、欧盟和中国为例,对不透明带来的三种不同的监管挑战提出了一种新的类型。首先,通过消除监督和问责的可能性,它可能会鼓励——或者无法阻止——低劣的决策。其次,它可能允许做出不被允许的决定,特别是那些在做出决定时明确或含蓄地依赖于受保护类别(如性别或种族)的决定。第三,它可能导致不合理的决定,其中得出答案的过程与答案本身同样重要。解决部分或全部这些问题的方法通常被认为是通过透明度。然而,虽然专有的不透明可以通过法院命令来解决,复杂的不透明可以通过求助于专家来解决,但自然不透明的系统可能需要新的“解释”形式,或者接受一些机器做出的决定无法解释——或者,另一种选择是,一些决定根本不应该由机器做出。
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引用次数: 4
An Adaptive DiffServ Approach to Support QoS in Network Mobility NEMO Environment 网络移动性NEMO环境下支持QoS的自适应DiffServ方法
Pub Date : 2020-03-31 DOI: 10.5121/ijcnc.2020.12202
Loay F. Hussein, A. Hashim, M. H. Habaebi, W. H. Hassan
Network mobility basic support (NEMO BS) protocol (RFC 3963) is an extension of Mobile IPv6. The NEMO BS embraced by the IETF working group to permit any node in the portable network to be accessible to the Internet despite the fact the network itself is roaming. This protocol likewise Mobile IPv6 does not deliver any kind of Quality of Service (QoS) guarantees to its clients. It can barely offer the same level of services (i.e. Best-Effort) to all the users without obligation to the needs of applications. These propositions a challenge to real-time applications that demand a precise level of QoS pledge. The Differentiated Services have recently come to be the most widely used QoS support technology in IP networks due to its relative simplicity and scalability benefits. This paper proposes a new scheme to provide QoS to mobile network nodes within the NEMO context. The proposed scheme intends to reduce handover latency for the users of MNN as well as alleviates packet losses. The feasibility of the proposed enhancement is assessed by measuring its performance against the native NEMO BS standard protocol using the NS-2 simulator. The obtained results in the simulation study have demonstrated that the proposed scheme outperforms the standard NEMO BS protocol.
网络移动基本支持(NEMO BS)协议(RFC 3963)是对移动IPv6的扩展。IETF工作组接受的NEMO BS允许便携式网络中的任何节点都可以访问Internet,尽管网络本身是漫游的。这个协议同样移动IPv6不提供任何类型的服务质量(QoS)保证给它的客户端。它几乎不能向所有用户提供相同级别的服务(即尽力而为),而不需要满足应用程序的需求。这些主张对需要精确的QoS保证的实时应用程序提出了挑战。由于其相对简单和可扩展性优势,差异化服务最近成为IP网络中使用最广泛的QoS支持技术。本文提出了一种在NEMO环境下为移动网络节点提供QoS的新方案。该方案旨在减少MNN用户的切换延迟和减少丢包。通过使用NS-2模拟器测量其与本地NEMO BS标准协议的性能,评估了所提出增强的可行性。仿真研究结果表明,该方案优于标准的NEMO BS协议。
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引用次数: 3
Blockchain Governance — A New Way of Organizing Collaborations? 区块链治理——组织协作的新方式?
Pub Date : 2020-03-28 DOI: 10.1287/orsc.2020.1379
Fabrice Lumineau, Wenqian Wang, Oliver Schilke
The recent emergence of blockchains may be considered a critical turning point in organizing collaborations. We outline the historical background and the fundamental features of blockchains and pre...
最近出现的区块链可能被认为是组织合作的关键转折点。我们概述了区块链的历史背景和基本特征。
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引用次数: 172
Technology Licensing and Environmental Policy Instruments: Price Control versus Quantity Control 技术许可和环境政策工具:价格控制与数量控制
Pub Date : 2020-03-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2822784
Seung-Gyu Sim, Sung-gyun Hong
This paper analyzes technology spillover through the licensing of an abatement technology under the Pigouvian taxation and emission trading schemes. We demonstrate that a firm with a better abatement technology sells a per unit royalty license to a competitor under both schemes, but it offers a higher royalty rate under the latter, which, unless the technology is perfectly transferrable, strictly outperforms the former in terms of social surplus and incentives for technology investment by inducing more (less) production by the licensor (licensee). These are reversals of the welfare implications suggested by the literature that assumes free technology transfer.
本文分析了庇古税收和排放交易机制下通过减排技术许可产生的技术溢出效应。我们证明,在两种方案下,拥有更好减排技术的公司向竞争对手出售单位特许权使用费许可,但在后一种方案下,它提供更高的特许权使用费,除非技术是完全可转让的,否则在社会剩余和通过诱导许可方(被许可方)生产更多(更少)的技术投资激励方面,后者严格优于前者。这些都是假设自由技术转让的文献所暗示的福利含义的逆转。
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引用次数: 4
When Sharing Economy Meets Traditional Business: Coopetition between Ride-Sharing Platforms and Car-Rental 当共享经济遇上传统商业:共享出行平台与汽车租赁的合作
Pub Date : 2020-03-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3659380
Chenglong Zhang, Jianqing Chen, Srinivasan Raghunathan
We examine coopetition between a ride-sharing platform and a car-rental firm. A distinctive aspect of this context is that the platform operates under the sharing-economy model where the supply is self-scheduled by drivers depending on the wage, whereas the car-rental firm operates under the traditional model with a fixed supply and cost structure. The platform and the car-rental firm compete for riders looking for transportation. If the platform and the rental firm choose to cooperate, they allow a (secondary) driver to rent from the rental firm and drive for the platform. In the absence of cooperation, only those with their own vehicles (i.e., primary drivers) are allowed to drive for the platform. We show that such supply-side (i.e., driver-side) cooperation intensifies the demand-side (i.e., rider-side) price competition and decreases total revenue. Therefore, coopetition is mutually beneficial only when it leads to a significant decrease in the supply or driver cost. Moreover, when coopetition is mutually beneficial, the benefit arises solely because of the improved profit margin from riders that switch from the rental firm to the platform and from those that are switched from primary to secondary drivers under cooperation. We find that cooperation is more likely to occur when the total rider market size is not high, the degree of rider substitutability between the platform and the rental firm is low, and the platform has a significant market-size advantage over the rental firm. Coopetition between the platform and the rental firm benefits the riders and hurts the drivers, but benefits society overall. The presence of cross-side network effects on the platform enhances the incentives to engage in coopetition.
我们考察了拼车平台和汽车租赁公司之间的合作。这种情况的一个独特之处在于,该平台在共享经济模式下运营,供应由司机根据工资自行安排,而汽车租赁公司在传统模式下运营,供应和成本结构固定。该平台和租车公司在争夺寻找交通工具的乘客。如果平台和租赁公司选择合作,他们允许一个(二次)司机从租赁公司租用,并为平台驾驶。在没有合作的情况下,只允许有自己车辆的司机(即主司机)为平台驾驶。我们发现这种供给侧(即司机侧)的合作加剧了需求侧(即乘客侧)的价格竞争,降低了总收入。因此,只有当合作导致供给或驱动成本显著降低时,合作才是互利的。此外,当合作是互惠互利时,利益的产生仅仅是因为在合作下从租赁公司转到平台的乘客和从主要司机转到次要司机的乘客的利润率提高。我们发现,当网约车市场总规模不高、平台与租赁企业之间的网约车可替代性较低、平台对租赁企业具有显著的市场规模优势时,合作更容易发生。平台和租赁公司之间的合作对乘客有利,对司机不利,但对整个社会有利。平台上存在的横向网络效应增强了参与合作的动机。
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引用次数: 1
Does the Quantile Regression Forest Learn More Information on Chinese Systemic Risk? 分位数回归森林能更好地反映中国的系统性风险吗?
Pub Date : 2020-03-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3556400
Yuejiao Duan, Xiaoyun Fan, Haoran Li
This article applies the quantile regression forest (QRF), which is an improved method for predicting future monetary policy and macroeconomic downside risks in China. The information used to forecast is derived from Chinese systemic risk. We construct two Chinese systemic risk information sets, one is the old information set with 12 indexes, the other is our information set with 19 indexes added. We also applied two methods to learn systemic risk information, including multiple regression and principal component analysis (PCA). We show that the multiple quantile regression forest (MQRF) and the principal component quantile regression forest (PCQRF) exhibit a superior out-of-sample forecasting ability when compared to alternative forecasting models, such as the multiple quantile regression (MQR) and the principal component quantile regression (PCQR). Furthermore, our systemic risk information set has good economic implications in predicting China’s monetary policy and macroeconomic downside risks.
本文采用了一种改进的分位数回归森林(QRF)方法来预测中国未来的货币政策和宏观经济下行风险。用于预测的信息来源于中国的系统性风险。我们还采用了多元回归和主成分分析两种方法来学习系统风险信息。我们发现,与多分位数回归(MQR)和主成分分位数回归(PCQR)等替代预测模型相比,多分位数回归森林(MQRF)和主成分分位数回归森林(PCQRF)表现出更好的样本外预测能力。此外,我们的系统性风险信息集在预测中国货币政策和宏观经济下行风险方面具有良好的经济意义。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Information Systems & Economics eJournal
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