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Modeling the Onion Market Using Sentiment Analysis with Deep Learning 利用深度学习的情感分析对洋葱市场进行建模
Pub Date : 2022-09-30 DOI: 10.24997/kjae.2022.63.3.33
Sumin Cho, J. Oh, Jong-Hyun Baek, B. Soon
This study analyzed the effect of the sensitivity of news related to onions on producers' decision-making on cultivation areas and market supply and demand. We collected onion-related article data and derived the sentiment index through sentiment analysis using neural networkbased learning. We estimated the cultivation area function, including the sentiment index we made. We analyzed the impact of news sensitivity on the onion market by constructing an onion market supply and demand model. Then, we gave a sentiment index shock to the cultivation area to examine the impact on the onion market. We also explored the sensitivity analysis to emphasize the news in June, July, and August plays an important role in the supply side. To the best of our knowledge, our approach using sentiment index in the agricultural model is the first trial. Therefore, our study can introduce an approach to improve the accuracy of modeling for agriculture and apply it to the area of agricultural economics.
本研究分析了洋葱相关新闻的敏感性对生产者种植面积和市场供求决策的影响。我们收集了与洋葱相关的文章数据,并利用基于神经网络的学习,通过情绪分析得出情绪指数。我们估计了种植面积函数,包括我们制作的情绪指数。通过构建洋葱市场供求模型,分析新闻敏感性对洋葱市场的影响。然后,我们对种植区域进行了情绪指数冲击,以检验对洋葱市场的影响。我们还探索了敏感性分析来强调6、7、8月份的新闻对供给侧的重要作用。据我们所知,我们在农业模型中使用情绪指数的方法是第一次尝试。因此,我们的研究可以为提高农业建模的准确性提供一种方法,并将其应用于农业经济领域。
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引用次数: 1
Rural Income Growth and Convergence in Vietnam 越南农村收入增长与趋同
Pub Date : 2022-09-30 DOI: 10.24997/kjae.2022.63.3.99
Oh-Sang Kwon, Jongwook Lee, Hyo Jae Shin, Tae Soo Choi, Han Na Jeong
We investigated the growth and convergence in Vietnamese rural income using the household survey data, VHLSS of the years, 2004 and 2018. The regional convergences in the district level income sources were estimated and tested. We found that real agricultural income, off-farm income, and the whole farm income all increased and converged, but the convergence rate in off-farm income was much higher than that in agricultural income. The convergence in income implies that an overall increase in rural income in Vietnam will contribute to reducing poverty rate. We also found that the geographic characteristics are the main determinants of agricultural income growth rates. On the other hand, ethnic minorities and people living in poverty have difficulties in developing off-farm income sources despite the convergence tendency of off-farm income.
我们使用2004年和2018年的家庭调查数据,VHLSS调查了越南农村收入的增长和收敛。对区级收入来源的区域收敛性进行了估计和检验。我们发现,实际农业收入、非农收入和整个农业收入都在增长并收敛,但非农收入的收敛速度远高于农业收入。收入的趋同意味着越南农村收入的总体增加将有助于降低贫困率。我们还发现,地理特征是农业收入增长率的主要决定因素。另一方面,少数民族和贫困人口虽然有非农收入趋同的趋势,但在发展非农收入来源方面存在困难。
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引用次数: 0
Determinants of Visit Frequency and Selection of Online Information Source of Rural Travelers 农村旅游者访问频率的影响因素及在线信息源选择
Pub Date : 2022-09-30 DOI: 10.24997/kjae.2022.63.3.81
Jeonghoi Heo
This study investigates the determinants of visit frequency and selection of online information source of those who visit rural areas for outing or travel. As for the information source, online media that have recently been used with a high rate of use are included: internet(website, blog), Facebook, YouTube, Instagram. The ordered probit model is used to analyze the factors that determine the frequency of visiting rural areas, and the multivariate probit model is used to analyze visitors’ choice behavior of online media selection to obtain travel information. As one of main explanatory variables, activities that visitors consider important during their trip are included.
本研究探讨了农村外出旅游人群访问频率和网络信息源选择的决定因素。在信息源方面,最近使用率较高的网络媒体包括:互联网(网站、博客)、Facebook、YouTube、Instagram。使用有序probit模型分析决定农村访问频率的因素,使用多元probit模型分析游客选择网络媒体获取旅游信息的选择行为。作为主要的解释变量之一,游客认为在他们的旅行中重要的活动被包括在内。
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引用次数: 0
A Predictive Model for Farmland Purchase/Rent Using Random Forests 基于随机森林的农地购买/租赁预测模型
Pub Date : 2022-09-30 DOI: 10.24997/kjae.2022.63.3.153
Ho-Jung Jeong, Youngjune Kim, soktay lim
This study contributes to guidance for understanding farmland purchase and rent decisions in Korea via an analysis using a machine learning tool, Random Forests: A Supervised Machine Learning Algorithm. Farm Household Economy Survey is employed to predict the relationship between farmland acquisition and farm household economic characteristics. Our main findings are two folds. First, a farmland purchase decision is positively related to transfer incomes, the value of inventory & fixed assets, and the value of farmland that farmers owned. Second, a farmland rent decision is also positively associated with a rent paid in a prior year, revenue from field crops, inventory and agricultural assets, and transfer incomes.
本研究通过使用机器学习工具“随机森林:监督机器学习算法”进行分析,为理解韩国的农田购买和租赁决策提供指导。采用农户经济调查方法预测农地征用与农户经济特征之间的关系。我们的主要发现有两方面。首先,农地购买决策与转移性收入、存货和固定资产价值以及农民拥有的农地价值呈正相关。其次,农田租金决定也与上一年支付的租金、大田作物收入、库存和农业资产以及转移收入呈正相关。
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引用次数: 0
The Welfare Effects of Changing the Payment Method of Food Assistance Program from Discount and In-kind Transfer to e-voucher: A Graphical Analysis 粮食援助支付方式由折扣和实物转移到电子凭证的福利效应:一个图形分析
Pub Date : 2022-09-30 DOI: 10.24997/kjae.2022.63.3.1
Minseong Kang, B. Ahn
This study proposes a theoretical method for evaluating the effects of food assistance programs in terms of consumer welfare. In particular, we develope a mechanism to derive the equivalent variation to measure the welfare effects of changing the payment method of food assistance programs from discount and in-kind transfer to e-voucher. Further, in order to intuitively present the aforementioned theoretical discussion, this study attempts to visualize the changes in utility and budget constraint based on the economic theory on consumer choice. The results of the graphical analysis show that beneficiaries can achieve a higher level of utility when the benefits are paid through e-voucher system rather than through in-kind transfer. However, it is found that the sign of the welfare effect is varied across the characteristics of consumers when changing the payment method from discount to e-voucher.
本研究提出一种从消费者福利角度评估粮食援助计划效果的理论方法。特别是,我们开发了一种机制来推导等效变化,以衡量将食品援助计划的支付方式从折扣和实物转移到电子代金券的福利效应。此外,为了直观地呈现上述理论讨论,本研究试图以消费者选择的经济学理论为基础,将效用和预算约束的变化可视化。图形分析结果表明,通过电子代金券系统支付福利比实物转移支付福利能获得更高水平的效用。然而,我们发现当支付方式由折扣改为电子券时,福利效应的表现随消费者特征的不同而不同。
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引用次数: 0
Analyzing Arbitrary Time Relationship and Warping between Weight of Highland Chinese Cabbage and Growth Environment Variables 大白菜体重与生长环境变量的任意时间关系及翘曲分析
Pub Date : 2022-06-30 DOI: 10.24997/kjae.2022.63.2.67
Yoonsuk Lee
The study analyzed dynamic time relationships and time warping between weight of highland chinese cabbage and growth environment variables using an arbitrary-lag causality method. During an early stage of growth, the relation between cabbage and growth environment variables is formed in arbitrary times. The bigdata used in the study are collected from the open field samrtfarm system operated by Rural Development Administration. The study applied for a dynamic time warping algorithm to measure dynamic time distances between weights of highland chinese cabbage and growth and weather variables, respectively. After that, we compared arbitrary-lag causality and fixed-lag causality. We found the existence of arbitrary-time lags between variables. In addiction, we found that the arbitrary-lag causality analysis is performed better than fixed-lag causality. Finally, we found that growth and weather variables caused cabbage weight under the arbitray-time lags, but not vice versa.
采用任意滞后因果关系方法,分析了大白菜质量与生长环境变量之间的动态时间关系和时间翘曲。在生长初期,白菜与生长环境变量之间的关系是在任意时间形成的。研究中使用的大数据来自农村发展管理局运营的开放式智能农场系统。本研究采用动态时间翘曲算法分别测量大白菜重量与生长和天气变量之间的动态时间距离。之后,我们比较了任意滞后因果关系和固定滞后因果关系。我们发现变量之间存在任意时间滞后。在成瘾中,我们发现任意滞后因果关系分析比固定滞后因果关系分析表现得更好。最后,我们发现在任意时间滞后下,生长和天气变量会影响白菜的重量,反之则不会。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of Agricultural Market Opening and Fiscal Investment and Loans 农业市场开放与财政投贷款的影响
Pub Date : 2022-06-30 DOI: 10.24997/kjae.2022.63.2.19
Woo-jin Song, Su-Hwan Myeong, Hanpil Moon
In order to analyze the effect of market openness and fiscal investment & loan on economic performance indicators (real production value, real agricultural income, price volatility, and factor productivity) in the agricultural sector, we construct a panel dataset that includes the calculated index of openness for each product group (rice, fruits, vegetables, livestock) and the newly classified agricultural budget (fiscal investment & loan) by purpose and product-group during 1995~2019. This study estimates the system of equations established for each of the four performance indicators using the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) method and then compares the marginal effects of market openness and fiscal investment & loan on each performance indicator. Separate aggregation of these two key variables by product group gives sufficient observations to measure the causal relationship between economic performance and them, and the SUR method was selected to obtain efficient estimates if the error terms of each equation are correlated. Our empirical analysis shows that market openness acts in the direction of worsening all performance indicators, whereas fiscal investment & loan has a positive effect overall. In the face of further opening via RCEP and CPTPP, agricultural investment & loan in the future should be reorganized focusing on food security, rural maintenance, climate change and environment, and shared growth with related industries.
为了分析市场开放和财政投贷款对农业部门经济绩效指标(实际产值、实际农业收入、价格波动率和要素生产率)的影响,我们构建了一个面板数据集,该数据集包括1995~2019年各产品类别(大米、水果、蔬菜、牲畜)的计算开放指数和按用途和产品类别新分类的农业预算(财政投贷款)。本文采用看似不相关回归(SUR)方法对四个绩效指标分别建立的方程体系进行了估计,并比较了市场开放和财政投贷款对各个绩效指标的边际效应。将这两个关键变量按产品组单独汇总,可以提供足够的观察值来衡量经济绩效与它们之间的因果关系,如果每个方程的误差项相关,则选择SUR方法来获得有效的估计。我们的实证分析表明,市场开放对所有绩效指标都有恶化的作用,而财政投贷款总体上有积极的作用。面对RCEP和CPTPP的进一步开放,未来的农业投贷款应重新布局,以粮食安全、农村维护、气候变化和环境为重点,与相关产业共享增长。
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引用次数: 0
Estimating the Effect of the US-China Trade War on the Relationship between the Prices in the International Feed Grain Futures Markets and China’s Pork Market 中美贸易战对国际饲料谷物期货市场价格与中国猪肉市场价格关系的影响
Pub Date : 2022-06-30 DOI: 10.24997/kjae.2022.63.2.103
Yiyang Qiao, B. Ahn
We examine the effect of the US-China trade war on the international feed grain futures markets and China’s pork market by using the univariate GARCH model with considering the structural breaks in each market. Granger causality test and the DCC-GARCH model are applied to examine the changes in the relationship between the international feed grain futures market and China’s pork market in the presence of the trade war. The analytical results suggest that the trade war has a significant negative effect on the volatility of international soybean futures price, but it exacerbated volatility in Chinese pork prices. Our empirical results also confirm that a stable causality existed between international soybean futures market and China’s pork market in the pre-trade war period, but it was disrupted after the trade war broke out.
本文采用单变量GARCH模型考察了中美贸易战对国际饲料谷物期货市场和中国猪肉市场的影响,并考虑了两个市场的结构性断裂。运用格兰杰因果检验和DCC-GARCH模型检验了贸易战背景下国际饲料谷物期货市场与中国猪肉市场关系的变化。分析结果表明,贸易战对国际大豆期货价格波动具有显著的负向影响,但却加剧了中国猪肉价格的波动。我们的实证结果也证实,在贸易战爆发前,国际大豆期货市场与中国猪肉市场之间存在稳定的因果关系,但在贸易战爆发后,这种关系被打破。
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引用次数: 0
Consumer Preferences for Animal Welfare Certified Eggs 消费者对动物福利认证鸡蛋的偏好
Pub Date : 2022-06-30 DOI: 10.24997/kjae.2022.63.2.83
Jae Bong Chang, Y. Lee, M. Jeong
This study estimates consumers’ willingness to pay for several eggs attributes, with primary focus on animal welfare. A nationwide online survey of 1,000 consumers was conducted to determine consumers’ preferences for animal welfare certification and identify perceptions of animal welfare claims and certifications factors affecting consumers’ willingness to pay by using the mixed logit model. The results from a choice experiment indicate that consumers place significant value on animal welfare certification, package size, expiration date and prices. We find a high degree of heterogeneity in willingness to pay for free-range and cage-free eggs. The mean premium for free-range eggs and cage-free eggs are 2,672KRW and 1,862KRW per 10 eggs, respectively. Our results also indicate that consumer perceptions of animal welfare and certification are associated with a willingness to pay. Results suggest there is potential for increasing the market share for animal welfare certified eggs.
这项研究估计了消费者愿意为几个鸡蛋属性付费,主要关注动物福利。通过使用混合logit模型,对全国1000名消费者进行了在线调查,以确定消费者对动物福利认证的偏好,并确定对动物福利声明和认证影响消费者支付意愿的因素的看法。一项选择实验的结果表明,消费者对动物福利认证、包装大小、有效期和价格的重视程度很高。我们发现,人们对自由放养和非笼养鸡蛋的支付意愿存在高度的异质性。散养鸡蛋和非笼养鸡蛋的平均溢价分别为每10个2672韩元和1862韩元。我们的研究结果还表明,消费者对动物福利和认证的看法与支付意愿有关。结果表明,动物福利认证鸡蛋的市场份额有可能增加。
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引用次数: 0
An Analysis of the Efficiency of Premium Subsidy for Crop Insurance: Focusing on the Apple 农作物保险保费补贴效率分析——以苹果为例
Pub Date : 2022-06-30 DOI: 10.24997/kjae.2022.63.2.1
Hong-Gi Chae, Se-Hyuk Kim, Wonho Chung, Tae-kyun Kim
The Korean government's insurance premium subsidies for crop insurance increased the insurance participation rate, but brought a financial burden. This study analyzes budget reduction measures (the differential support system, the premium subsidy cap system, the same subsidy rate reduction) to alleviate the financial burden and efficiently operate the government budget. For the analysis, yield distribution functions of individual apple farms were estimated, and simulations were conducted. Main findings are summarized as follows. First, the differential support system has the greatest effect of improving efficiency among the budget reduction measures, and there is little reduction in the insurance participation rate. Second, the premium subsidy cap system has little effect on improving efficiency, and there is a small change in the participation rate. Third, the same subsidy rate reduction has little effect on improving the efficiency, and the participation rate decreases significantly. The differential support system is considered the most effective way to reduce the budget and is expected to have the lowest resistance from farmers. It is proposed to establish the system gradually from the low level to settle the system stably.
政府对农作物保险的保险费补贴虽然提高了参保率,但也增加了财政负担。本研究分析了减少预算的措施(差别支持制度、保费补贴上限制度、相同补贴率的降低),以减轻财政负担,有效地运行政府预算。为了进行分析,估算了单个苹果农场的产量分布函数,并进行了模拟。主要发现总结如下。首先,在预算削减措施中,差别支持制度对提高效率的效果最大,对参保率的影响不大。第二,保险费补贴上限系统对提高效率的影响不大,还有一个小变化的参与率。第三,同样的补贴率几乎没有影响提高效率,减少和参与率大幅减少。差别化支援制度被认为是减少预算的最有效的方法,预计农民的阻力最小。提出从基层逐步建立制度,使制度稳定稳定。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Korean Agricultural Economics Association
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