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Resource Misallocation Among Listed Firms in China: The Evolving Role of State-Owned Enterprises 中国上市公司资源错配:国有企业角色的演变
Pub Date : 2021-03-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513571928.001.A001
Emilia Jurzik, Cian Ruane
We document that publicly listed Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are less productive and profitable than publicly listed firms in which the state has no ownership stake. In particular, Chinese listed SOEs are more capital intensive and have a lower average product of capital than non-SOEs. These productivity differences increased between 2002 and 2009, and remain sizeable in 2019. Using a heterogeneous firm model of resource misallocation, we find that there are large potential productivity gains from reforms which could equalize the marginal products of listed SOEs and listed non-SOEs.
我们的研究表明,上市的中国国有企业(SOEs)的生产力和盈利能力低于国家没有所有权的上市公司。特别是,中国上市国有企业的资本密集程度更高,平均资本产出低于非国有企业。这些生产率差异在2002年至2009年期间有所扩大,并在2019年保持在相当大的水平。利用资源错配的异质企业模型,我们发现国有上市公司和非国有上市公司边际产品均衡的改革会带来巨大的潜在生产率收益。
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引用次数: 4
A Structural Approach to Measuring the Degree of Economic Integration: Evidence From G-7 Countries. 衡量经济一体化程度的结构性方法:来自七国集团的证据。
Pub Date : 2021-02-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3789612
U. Aysun
This paper infers the degree of economic integration amongst G-7 countries by estimating a two country DSGE model separately for each country in the group. In doing so, the two economies in the model are represented by the observations for a specific country and the corresponding values for the rest of G-7. To infer the degree of economic integration, the model's shock processes are reconfigured so that they include a component that is common for each economy and shocks can be transmitted from one economy to the other. Capturing the degree of economic integration by the relative contribution of common and foreign shocks to the variation of domestic variables, the paper draws inferences that are at odds with those based on more traditional measures of globalization. Countries that are more open to trade and financial flows in the data are ranked lower in terms of economic integration according to post-estimation statistics.
本文通过对七国集团中每个国家分别估计一个两国DSGE模型来推断七国集团之间的经济一体化程度。在这样做时,模型中的两个经济体用一个具体国家的观察值和七国集团其他国家的相应值来表示。为了推断经济一体化程度,对模型的冲击过程进行了重新配置,使其包含每个经济体共同的组成部分,并且冲击可以从一个经济体传递到另一个经济体。通过共同冲击和外国冲击对国内变量变化的相对贡献来捕捉经济一体化程度,本文得出的推论与基于更传统的全球化衡量标准的推论不一致。根据后估计统计,数据中对贸易和资金流动更开放的国家在经济一体化方面排名较低。
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引用次数: 0
Are Stock-Market Anomalies Anomalous After All? 股市异常到底反常吗?
Pub Date : 2021-02-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3752177
George Chalamandaris, Kuntara Pukthuanthong, Nikolas Topaloglou
We propose a stochastic spanning to evaluate whether anomalies are genuine under factor-model framework. Our approach is nonparametric and does not rely on any assumption of return distribution and investor risk preferences. It depends on the whole distribution of returns, rather than only on the first two moments. Of the anomalies we consider, only a few expand the opportunity set of the risk-averter and have real economic content. Our approach is consistent in identifying genuine anomalies in and out of samples. This is in contrast to mean-variance (MV) spanning tests where anomalies identified in-sample, not out-of-sample.
我们提出了一个随机跨越来评估在因子模型框架下异常是否真实。我们的方法是非参数的,不依赖于任何回报分布和投资者风险偏好的假设。它取决于收益的整体分布,而不仅仅是前两个时刻。在我们考虑的异常中,只有少数扩展了风险规避者的机会集,并且具有实际的经济内容。我们的方法在识别样本内外的真实异常方面是一致的。这与均值方差(MV)跨越测试相反,后者识别样本内异常,而不是样本外异常。
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引用次数: 2
Optimal Share of Public Debt in Local Currency 以本币计算的公共债务的最优份额
Pub Date : 2021-02-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3784343
C. Sarmiento
This paper shows analytically the optimal allocation of public debt between local and foreign currency denominated debt. The stark differences in optimal behavior between developed and developing countries are accounted in terms of larger sensitivity of local interest rates to fiscal deficits in the developing world. The presence of excess saving in the developed economies particularly accentuates this observation.
本文分析了公共债务在本币和外币计价债务之间的最优配置。发达国家和发展中国家在最优行为上的明显差异,是由于发展中国家的地方利率对财政赤字的敏感度更高。发达经济体中存在的过度储蓄尤其突出了这一观察结果。
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引用次数: 0
Global Opportunity Index 2021: Focus on Latin America 2021年全球机会指数:重点关注拉丁美洲
Pub Date : 2021-02-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3780183
Oscar F. Contreras, Benjamin Smith, Joseph Bendix, C. Lopez
This report uses the 2021 Global Opportunity Index and its different categories to provide an overview of Latin America's attractiveness to foreign investors, especially when compared to other emerging markets and developing economies (EMDE). It also offers an in-depth look at Latin America's global capital inflows (emphasizing their composition and evolution over the past decade) and the regions' cross-border M&A activity.Overall, the report highlights that many of the main challenges to foreign investors (and, more broadly, to a sound investment climate in the region) stem from the lack of a strong, transparent, and predictable legal framework, including well-functioning legal and judicial systems. Thus, the analysis suggests that Latin American governments must take concrete measures to strengthen the rule of law and tackle the pervasive corruption that undermines public trust.
本报告利用2021年全球机会指数及其不同类别,概述了拉丁美洲对外国投资者的吸引力,特别是与其他新兴市场和发展中经济体(EMDE)相比。报告还深入分析了拉丁美洲的全球资本流入(强调其构成和过去十年的演变)以及该地区的跨境并购活动。总体而言,该报告强调,外国投资者(以及更广泛地说,该地区良好投资环境)面临的许多主要挑战源于缺乏强有力、透明和可预测的法律框架,包括运作良好的法律和司法体系。因此,分析表明,拉美各国政府必须采取具体措施,加强法治,解决破坏公众信任的普遍腐败问题。
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引用次数: 1
Financial Globalization: Effects on Banks’ Information Acquisition and Credit Risk 金融全球化对银行信息获取和信用风险的影响
Pub Date : 2021-02-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3777745
Christopher Paik
English Abstract: Financial liberalization accelerates global banks’ entry into new markets where host countries hope to spur investment and economic growth. However, banks sometimes retreat from their global ambitions and exit these new markets. This study demonstrates how difficulties of foreign banks in new markets may emerge due to disadvantages in the ability to assess credit quality compared to that of established domestic banks. We present a duopoly model where two banks conduct investigations in the search of qualified loan borrowers. The model assumes that the domestic bank has a cost advantage in evaluating a borrower’s credit quality compared to the competing foreign bank. Despite the cost heterogeneity, an equilibrium exists in which two such banks coexist in the market. Specifically, the information cost advantaged bank orchestrates a cream skimming strategy which entails lower-price commitments of loan products and higher investigation levels to screen and find low-risk borrowers. In contrast, the information cost disadvantaged bank chooses a bottom fishing strategy which consists of higher-priced loan offers with lower investigation levels. This results in high acceptance rates of high-risk borrowers in the foreign bank’s loan profile and correspondingly, higher default rates. We analyze the results to derive implications for development policy.
摘要金融自由化加速了全球银行进入新的市场,东道国希望借此刺激投资和经济增长。然而,银行有时会放弃其全球雄心,退出这些新市场。这项研究表明,由于与国内老牌银行相比,外国银行在评估信贷质量方面的能力存在劣势,因此在新市场中可能会出现困难。我们提出了一个双寡头模型,其中两家银行进行调查,以寻找合格的贷款借款人。该模型假设国内银行在评估借款人信用质量方面比竞争对手外国银行具有成本优势。尽管存在成本异质性,但市场上存在两家银行并存的均衡。具体来说,具有信息成本优势的银行策划了一种撇脂策略,即降低贷款产品的价格承诺,提高调查水平,以筛选和发现低风险借款人。而处于信息成本劣势的银行则选择了低调查水平、高报价的抄底策略。这导致高风险借款人在外国银行的贷款档案中的接受率很高,相应的,违约率也较高。我们对结果进行分析,得出对发展政策的启示。
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引用次数: 1
FDI and Firm Productivity in Host Countries: The Role of Financial Constraints 外国直接投资与东道国企业生产率:金融约束的作用
Pub Date : 2021-01-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3776807
Wontae Han, Jian Wang, Xiao Wang
This paper studies the effect of FDI firms' financial advantages on firm productivity in host countries and examines the related policy implications. If FDI firms face lower financing costs but have higher fixed production costs than local firms, a simple Melitz-type model predicts that because of their financial advantages, FDI firms could have even lower cutoff productivity than local firms, especially in financially vulnerable sectors. The same mechanism will also lower the average productivity of FDI firms especially in financially vulnerable sectors, although FDI firms on average are still more productive than local firms. These predictions are supported by the Chinese firm-level data. Then, we study policy implications in a two-country model that resembles these empirical patterns. The counterfactual policy analysis shows that offering tax benefits to FDI firms could be counterproductive because it attracts FDI firms that are even less productive than local firms. The policy in the host country to improve its financial market efficiency could also hurt the country's welfare because of the interaction between financial market reforms and the distortionary taxes imposed on local firms to finance FDI subsidies.
本文研究了FDI企业的金融优势对东道国企业生产率的影响,并探讨了相关的政策含义。如果FDI企业比当地企业面临更低的融资成本,但拥有更高的固定生产成本,一个简单的melitz型模型预测,由于它们的金融优势,FDI企业的边际生产率可能比当地企业更低,尤其是在金融脆弱的部门。同样的机制也会降低外国直接投资公司的平均生产率,特别是在财政脆弱的部门,尽管外国直接投资公司平均仍然比当地公司更有生产力。这些预测得到了中国企业层面数据的支持。然后,我们在一个类似于这些经验模式的两国模型中研究了政策影响。反事实政策分析表明,向外国直接投资公司提供税收优惠可能适得其反,因为它吸引的外国直接投资公司的生产率甚至低于当地公司。东道国提高其金融市场效率的政策也可能损害该国的福利,因为金融市场改革与为资助外国直接投资补贴而对当地公司征收的扭曲税之间存在相互作用。
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引用次数: 11
Does a Sudden Breakdown in Public Information Searches Impede Analyst Forecast Accuracy? Evidence from Google’s Withdrawal from China 公共信息搜索的突然中断会影响分析师预测的准确性吗?谷歌退出中国的证据
Pub Date : 2021-01-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3775434
Yangyang Chen, Zi Li, Lijun Ma, Min Zhang
We examine whether the sudden loss of public information search capacity caused by Google’s withdrawal from China affects Chinese analysts’ earnings forecasts. We find that in the period after Google’s withdrawal, analyst forecast accuracy declines, particularly for firms with foreign trade. This decline in analyst forecast accuracy suggests that Google’s withdrawal hinders analysts’ acquisition of firms’ foreign information, which decreases the quality of their earnings forecasts. Consistent with this argument, we find that the effect of Google’s withdrawal is stronger for firms with greater business complexity and more opaque financial reporting. We also find that corporate site visits serve as an alternative information source that can compensate for the information loss caused by Google’s withdrawal. Our evidence suggests a potential cost of limiting the flow of public information about firms in the capital market.
我们研究了bb0退出中国导致的公共信息搜索能力的突然丧失是否会影响中国分析师的收益预测。我们发现,在b谷歌退出后的一段时间内,分析师预测的准确性下降,特别是对有对外贸易的公司。分析师预测准确性的下降表明b谷歌的退出阻碍了分析师获取公司的外国信息,从而降低了他们盈利预测的质量。与这一论点一致的是,我们发现b谷歌的退出对业务复杂性越高、财务报告越不透明的公司的影响越强。我们还发现,企业网站访问作为一种替代信息源,可以弥补b谷歌退出所造成的信息损失。我们的证据表明,限制资本市场上有关公司的公开信息的流动是有潜在成本的。
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引用次数: 1
Who Lends Before Banking Crises? Evidence from the International Syndicated Loan Market 谁在银行业危机前放贷?来自国际银团贷款市场的证据
Pub Date : 2021-01-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3739393
Mariassunta Giannetti, Yeejin Jang
We show that foreign lenders and low market share lenders extend more credit in comparison to other lenders during lending booms leading to banking crises, but not during other credit expansions. Less established lenders also increase the amount of credit they extend to riskier borrowers, without asking for collateral or imposing covenants and higher interest rates. Our results suggest that taking lenders’ characteristics into account could provide an indicator for how much risk an economy is accumulating and be a useful barometer for macroprudential policies.
我们表明,在导致银行业危机的贷款繁荣时期,与其他贷款机构相比,外国贷款机构和低市场份额贷款机构提供了更多的信贷,但在其他信贷扩张期间则没有。信誉较差的贷款机构还会增加向风险较高的借款人提供的信贷额度,而不要求提供抵押品,也不要求签订契约和提高利率。我们的研究结果表明,考虑贷款人的特征可以为经济积累的风险程度提供一个指标,并成为宏观审慎政策的有用晴雨表。
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引用次数: 3
The 4th European Alternative Finance Benchmarking Report 第四次欧洲另类金融基准报告
Pub Date : 2021-01-24 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3772260
Tania Ziegler, Rotem Shneor, K. Wenzlaff, Ana Odorovic, Rui Hao, Lukas Ryll
This year’s report is titled ‘Shifting Paradigms’ to, in part, emphasise the continued growth and development of the European Alternative Finance Industry, but also underscore that these patterns of growth can develop and change as the sector continues to develop and mature. Throughout the region, platforms have continued to grow, respond to regulation, and expand operations internationally. In some regions, model prominence has shifted, allowing for others to grow. At times, this has been a response to the development or lack of regulation, or simply a result of competing market forces. Last year’s report, ‘Expanding Horizons’, sought to exemplify the positive developments in European Alternative Finance in 2016 and foreshadowed future developments in the industry. The sector as a whole has continued to expand, and across the board has grown in volume. As with last year, this study captured market data from 45 European countries, and continued to explore issues with regard to innovation, research and development, as well as internationalisation trends. This year’s European Alternative Finance Industry Report has been produced by the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance at Cambridge Judge Business School and the University of Agder. This report was generously supported by Invesco and the CME Group Foundation. Highlights from the report This year’s study gathered data from 269 platforms with reported operations in 2017. These 269 platforms were responsible for 519 unique data entries across 45 countries in Europe. The study shows that the total European online alternative finance market (including the UK) grew by 36 per cent to reach €10.44 billion in 2017. The United Kingdom is still the largest individual alternative finance market, albeit with a declining market share from 73 per cent in 2016 to 68 per cent in 2017. Excluding the UK from overall volume, the European online alternative finance industry grew 63 per cent from €2.06 billion to €3.37 billion in 2017. France (€661.37 million), Germany (€595.41 million) and the Netherlands (€279.93 million) remained the top three national markets for online alternative finance by market volume in Europe, excluding the United Kingdom. For the fourth year in a row P2P Consumer Lending accounted for the largest market share of European Alterative Finance (excluding the UK). This model accounted for 41 per cent of all volume and grew by 99.8 per cent from €697 million in 2016 to €1.39 billion in 2017. Internationalisation of platforms is on the rise. In 2017, 88 per cent of platforms reported some level of cross-border inflows, while 61 per cent reported outflows. This represents a growth of 11 per cent for platforms reporting cross-border inflows, and 17 per cent growth for those reporting cross-border outflows. Despite growth in international orientation of platforms, the extent of actual localisation of services, interface and brand remains limited. While in 2016, models tha
今年的报告以“范式转换”为主题,在一定程度上强调了欧洲另类金融行业的持续增长和发展,但也强调了这些增长模式可以随着该行业的持续发展和成熟而发展和变化。在整个地区,平台持续增长,响应监管,并在国际上扩大业务。在一些地区,模式的重点已经转移,从而允许其他模式的发展。有时,这是对监管发展或缺乏的反应,或者仅仅是市场力量竞争的结果。去年的报告《拓展视野》试图举例说明2016年欧洲另类金融的积极发展,并预示了该行业未来的发展。整个行业继续扩张,整体销量也在增长。与去年一样,这项研究收集了45个欧洲国家的市场数据,并继续探讨有关创新、研发以及国际化趋势的问题。今年的《欧洲另类金融行业报告》由剑桥大学贾奇商学院(Cambridge Judge Business School)的剑桥另类金融中心(Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance)和阿格德大学(University of Agder)联合撰写。本报告得到景顺和芝加哥商品交易所集团基金会的慷慨支持。今年的研究收集了269个平台的数据,这些平台在2017年报告了运营情况。这269个平台负责欧洲45个国家的519个独特数据条目。该研究显示,2017年,欧洲在线替代金融市场(包括英国)增长了36%,达到104.4亿欧元。英国仍然是最大的个人另类金融市场,尽管市场份额从2016年的73%下降到2017年的68%。不包括英国在内,欧洲在线替代金融行业从2017年的20.6亿欧元增长到33.7亿欧元,增长了63%。法国(6.6137亿欧元)、德国(5.9541亿欧元)和荷兰(2.7993亿欧元)仍然是欧洲(不包括英国)在线替代金融市场的前三大国家。P2P消费借贷连续第四年占据欧洲另类金融(不包括英国)的最大市场份额。这一模式占总销量的41%,从2016年的6.97亿欧元增长到2017年的13.9亿欧元,增长了99.8%。平台的国际化正在上升。2017年,88%的平台报告了一定程度的跨境资金流入,61%的平台报告了跨境资金流出。这意味着,报告跨境资金流入的平台增长11%,报告跨境资金流出的平台增长17%。尽管平台的国际化趋势有所增长,但服务、界面和品牌的实际本地化程度仍然有限。虽然在2016年,与更大销量相关的模型报告了更高水平的商业模式变化,但在2017年观察到相反的趋势。对于销量排名前五的模式类型,50%或更多的平台表示没有改变其商业模式。然而,产品创新却全面高涨。正如去年所观察到的那样,大多数创新都集中在通过流程简化和自动化来提高平台的运营效率,以及优化支付处理和客户验证。此外,与去年一样,欧洲平台的次要研究重点是客户服务功能的投资和开发,主要是社交媒体和促销工具、社区管理和CRM系统。随着整个欧洲的监管制度不断发展,平台对这些监管的充分性的看法也在不断发展。总的来说,虽然总体观点仍然存在分歧,但似乎赞成的程度一直在上升。
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引用次数: 36
期刊
International Corporate Finance eJournal
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