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International Trade and the Risk in Bilateral Exchange Rates 国际贸易与双边汇率风险
Pub Date : 2021-08-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3745935
Ramin Hassan, Erik Loualiche, Alexandre R. Pecora, Colin Ward
Exchange rate volatility falls after a trade deal, driven by a decline in the systematic component of risk. The average trade deal increases trade by 50 percent over five years, reducing systematic risk by a third of a standard deviation across countries. We examine this connection in an Armington model where the structure of trade networks determines the risk in exchange rates. We estimate our model to current data and find i) that countries at the periphery of the world trade network benefit the most from lower trade barriers and ii) that a counterfactual experiment of a trade war between the US and China shows a global increase in currency risk, with effects concentrated among peripheral countries.
在达成贸易协议后,由于风险的系统性成分下降,汇率波动性下降。平均而言,贸易协定在五年内使贸易增长50%,将各国之间的系统性风险降低了三分之一的标准差。我们在贸易网络结构决定汇率风险的阿明顿模型中检验了这种联系。我们根据当前数据估计了我们的模型,并发现i)世界贸易网络边缘国家从较低的贸易壁垒中受益最大,ii)美国和中国之间贸易战的反事实实验显示全球货币风险增加,影响集中在边缘国家。
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引用次数: 4
Asymmetry and hysteresis in the Russian gasoline market: the rationale for green energy exports 俄罗斯汽油市场的不对称与滞后:绿色能源出口的基本原理
Pub Date : 2021-08-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3908988
Dean Fantazzini, A. Kolesnikova
Using monthly data of 79 Russian regions from 2003 to 2017, we study the long-run relationship of the retail gasoline prices with the crude oil price and the nominal exchange rate. We find that models that were successfully applied to deal with asymmetries in other countries are not suitable for Russia without taking structural breaks into account. Once breaks are allowed, we find that there is no asymmetry in the long-run elasticities between the gasoline prices and the crude oil price, and no significant hysteresis. However, there is an asymmetric relation between the gasoline price and the exchange rate that has decreased over time. These results also hold after several robustness checks. The evidence reported in this work shows that the effects of the exchange rate on gasoline prices are much more difficult to control than the oil price, and they require a larger set of policy measures: the recent development of a plan to decrease the importance of hydrocarbons exports by producing clean hydrogen using electrolysis and pyrolysis and the potential future export of electricity generated using nuclear power and onshore wind farms may help to diversify the local economy and to shield it from new sanctions.
利用2003 - 2017年俄罗斯79个地区的月度数据,我们研究了汽油零售价格与原油价格和名义汇率的长期关系。我们发现,如果不考虑结构性断裂,在其他国家成功应用于处理不对称的模型并不适用于俄罗斯。一旦允许中断,我们发现汽油价格和原油价格之间的长期弹性不存在不对称性,并且没有显著的滞后性。然而,随着时间的推移,汽油价格和汇率之间存在一种不对称关系。经过几次稳健性检查后,这些结果也成立。这项工作中报告的证据表明,汇率对汽油价格的影响比石油价格更难控制,它们需要更大的政策措施:最近制定了一项计划,通过利用电解和热解生产清洁氢气来降低碳氢化合物出口的重要性,以及未来利用核能和陆上风力发电场发电的潜在出口,这可能有助于使当地经济多样化,并使其免受新的制裁。
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引用次数: 3
Cryptocurrency: Towards Regulating the Unruly Enigma of Fintech in Nigeria and South Africa 加密货币:对尼日利亚和南非金融科技难以驾驭之谜的监管
Pub Date : 2021-08-20 DOI: 10.17159/1727-3781/2021/v24i0a10743
F. Ukwueze
One of the most modern inventions of financial technology (FinTech) since after the global financial crisis of 2008 is the crypto or virtual currency/asset. Since the creation of the first cryptocurrency, the Bitcoin, in 2009, it is estimated that over five thousand variants of the Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have emerged. Virtual currencies have become widespread across the globe but their legal status and uses in various countries have remained uncertain. They have been variously classified as currencies, securities, properties, assets, commodities and tokens, and used as means of exchange but are not legally recognised as legal tender. In many jurisdictions their emergence was greeted with scepticism and express or tacit rejection by financial and securities markets regulators, but over time, owing to their increasing popularity, characteristics, positive and negative potentials, there has been a gradual shift towards their formal recognition and regulation. Regulatory authorities in many countries are now grappling with designing appropriate policy and regulatory framework for the crypto phenomenon. This paper interrogates the current legal status and efforts to regulate cryptocurrencies in two leading African nations, Nigeria and South Africa, and highlights the challenges of designing an appropriate regulatory framework for this enigmatic technology. The paper adopts the doctrinal legal research methodology, employing the descriptive, analytical, and comparative approaches. It follows a structured review and analysis of relevant extant legislation on currencies and securities in the countries to ascertain whether they cover cryptocurrencies. It then compares the current position of the law on the subject in the two countries. Bearing in mind that it may not be possible to totally ban dealing in cryptocurrencies, the paper concludes that regulation has become imperative. Drawing from the position on the subject in more developed nations, the United States of America (US) and the European Union (EU), this paper proposes a model of regulation of virtual currency not only for Nigeria and South Africa but also for other African countries.
自2008年全球金融危机以来,金融技术(FinTech)最现代的发明之一是加密货币或虚拟货币/资产。自2009年第一种加密货币比特币诞生以来,据估计,比特币和其他加密货币已经出现了5000多种变体。虚拟货币已经在全球范围内广泛使用,但它们在各个国家的法律地位和用途仍然不确定。它们被不同地归类为货币、证券、财产、资产、商品和代币,并被用作交换手段,但在法律上不被视为法定货币。在许多司法管辖区,它们的出现受到金融和证券市场监管机构的怀疑和明示或默示的拒绝,但随着时间的推移,由于它们越来越受欢迎,特征,积极和消极的潜力,逐渐转向对它们的正式承认和监管。许多国家的监管机构正在努力为加密现象设计适当的政策和监管框架。本文探讨了尼日利亚和南非这两个主要非洲国家目前在监管加密货币方面的法律地位和努力,并强调了为这一神秘技术设计适当监管框架的挑战。本文采用理论法学研究方法,采用描述法、分析法和比较法。它遵循对各国现行货币和证券相关立法的结构化审查和分析,以确定它们是否涵盖加密货币。然后比较了两国在这一问题上的法律现状。考虑到完全禁止加密货币交易可能是不可能的,该论文得出的结论是,监管已变得势在必行。根据更发达国家,美利坚合众国(US)和欧盟(EU)在这一问题上的立场,本文提出了一种不仅适用于尼日利亚和南非,而且适用于其他非洲国家的虚拟货币监管模式。
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引用次数: 8
Dissecting the Segmentation of China’s Repo Markets 中国回购市场的细分剖析
Pub Date : 2021-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3914684
X. Xu
China repos trade in the over-the-counter interbank market as well as the stock exchange. This paper examines the behaviours, sources, and drivers of the spread between China’s exchange and interbank repo rates from December 2006 to June 2018. After adjusting for different day-count quoting methods, I dissect the exchange to interbank repo spread into two components: cross-market segmentation between exchange and interbank markets for non-depository institutions (NDIs), and within-market counterparty segmentation between NDIs and depository institutions (DIs) in the interbank market. The 1-day repo markets are found to be more segmented, with the spread mainly driven by the cross-market segmentation for NDIs, reflecting the two different market mechanisms and trading frictions that prevent NDIs from effectively arbitraging across the two markets in the shorter tenor. On the other hand, the 7-day repo markets are found to be less segmented, with the spread mainly driven by the counterparty segmentation between NDIs and DIs within the interbank market, reflecting greater counterparty credit and liquidity risks for NDIs relative to DIs. Further analysis uncovers the impacts of quarter-end effect, monetary policies, and shadow banking activities on the cross-market and within-market segmentations in China’s repo markets.
中国在场外银行间市场和证券交易所进行回购交易。本文研究了2006年12月至2018年6月期间中国外汇和银行间回购利率息差的行为、来源和驱动因素。在调整了不同的日计报价方法后,我将交易所与银行间回购价差分解为两个部分:非存款机构(ndi)的交易所与银行间市场之间的跨市场分割,以及ndi与银行间市场上的存款机构(DIs)之间的市场内交易对手分割。研究发现,1天期回购市场的分割程度更高,差价主要由ndi的跨市场分割驱动,这反映了两种不同的市场机制和交易摩擦阻碍了ndi在较短期限内在两个市场进行有效套利。另一方面,我们发现7天期回购市场的分割程度较低,利差主要由银行间市场中ndi和DIs之间的交易对手分割所驱动,反映出ndi相对于DIs面临更大的交易对手信用和流动性风险。进一步分析揭示了季末效应、货币政策和影子银行活动对中国回购市场跨市场和市场内分割的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Is Cardano a Serious Rival to Ethereum? 卡尔达诺是以太坊的真正竞争对手吗?
Pub Date : 2021-07-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3886108
Jackie Johnson
Cardano was launched in October 2017 and by May 2021 has been operational for 44 months. Comparison with its closest rival, Ethereum, reveals that their prices are highly correlated but the change in daily closing prices do not always move in unison. Cardano is also more volatile than Ethereum and In terms of growth Cardano is lagging behind. Cardano’s only saving grace is its transaction fees, which are considerably lower than Ethereum. However, care must be taken in understanding the structure of any data source. In this case three data sources are used and results vary depending on the precision of the price data, particularly Cardano which for a number of years did not trade above one dollar.
卡尔达诺号于2017年10月下水,到2021年5月已经运行了44个月。与其最接近的竞争对手以太坊进行比较,发现它们的价格高度相关,但每日收盘价的变化并不总是一致的。卡尔达诺也比以太坊更不稳定,在增长方面卡尔达诺落后。卡尔达诺唯一的可取之处是它的交易费用,比以太坊低得多。但是,在理解任何数据源的结构时都必须小心。在这种情况下,使用了三个数据源,结果因价格数据的精度而异,特别是多年来交易价格未超过1美元的卡尔达诺。
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引用次数: 1
Is the Value Premium Smaller Than We Thought? 价值溢价比我们想象的要小吗?
Pub Date : 2021-07-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3886984
Mathias Hasler
The construction of the original HML portfolio (Fama and French, 1993) includes six seemingly innocuous decisions that could easily have been replaced with alternatives that are just as reasonable. I propose such alternatives and construct HML portfolios. In sample, the average estimate of the value premium is dramatically smaller than the original estimate of the value premium. The difference is 0.09% per month and statistically significant. Out of sample, however, this difference is statistically indistinguishable from zero. The results suggest that the original value premium estimate is upward biased because of a chance result in the original research decisions.
原始html组合的构建(Fama和French, 1993)包括六个看似无害的决策,这些决策可以很容易地被同样合理的替代方案所取代。我提出了这样的替代方案,并构建了html组合。在样本中,价值溢价的平均估计值显著小于价值溢价的原始估计值。差异为每月0.09%,具有统计学意义。然而,在样本之外,这种差异在统计上与零难以区分。结果表明,由于原始研究决策中的偶然结果,原始价值溢价估计是向上偏倚的。
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引用次数: 1
Firm-Level Political Risk and Corporate Innovation 企业层面的政治风险与企业创新
Pub Date : 2021-07-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3880272
Obaid ur Rehman, Xiaoxing Liu, Kai Wu, Shaofang Li
This study finds a negative association between firm-level political risk (PRISK) and firm-level patents and citations in general. The PRISK extracted from different sectors also shows similar effects. This impact is more pronounced when a firm belongs to economically uncertain states, politically corrupted regions, and competitive industries. Besides, we identify that increasing cost of capital is a transmission channel that surges the negative impact of PRISK on corporate innovations. We also find the robust negative impact of PRISK on innovation when firms mainly rely on external finances. Our findings have policy implications for the firm’s manager, market participants, and practitioners.
本研究发现,企业层面的政治风险(PRISK)与企业层面的专利和引文总体上呈负相关。从不同行业提取的PRISK也显示出类似的效果。当一家公司位于经济不稳定的国家、政治腐败的地区和竞争激烈的行业时,这种影响更为明显。此外,我们还发现,资本成本的增加是一个传导渠道,加剧了PRISK对企业创新的负面影响。我们还发现,当企业主要依赖外部融资时,风险风险对创新的负面影响显著。我们的研究结果对公司管理者、市场参与者和从业者具有政策意义。
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引用次数: 1
Exchange Rate Volatility and Cross–Border Travel: Theory and Empirics 汇率波动与跨境旅游:理论与实证
Pub Date : 2021-07-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3882942
Wisarut Suwanprasert
I develop a search-theoretic model to study how consumers' search behavior responds to exchange rate volatility. The model offers two main predictions. First, the number of cross-border travelers is increasing in exchange rate volatility. Second, the elasticity of cross-border travel with respect to exchange rate volatility is increasing in transportation cost. I use monthly Canadian traveler data from 2005 to 2012 to test the model's predictions. The estimate suggests that when exchange rate volatility increases by one standard deviation, the number of same-day travelers increases by 1.6 percent. When exchange rate volatility is measured by implied volatilities, the estimates increase to 2.1–2.5 percent. When the data is restricted to the subperiod before the 2008 financial crisis, the estimated coefficients of exchange rate volatility and implied volatilities increase to 4 percent and 7.3–10.7 percent, respectively. This paper concludes that cross-border shopping behavior responds to both ex ante and ex post exchange rate volatilities.
我建立了一个搜索理论模型来研究消费者的搜索行为对汇率波动的反应。该模型提供了两个主要预测。首先,跨境旅客数量增加,汇率波动加剧。其次,跨境旅行相对于汇率波动的弹性在运输成本中增加。我使用2005年至2012年的加拿大月度游客数据来测试模型的预测。该估计表明,当汇率波动增加一个标准差时,当日旅行者的数量就会增加1.6%。当汇率波动率以隐含波动率衡量时,估计增加到2.1 - 2.5%。当数据局限于2008年金融危机之前的子时期时,汇率波动率和隐含波动率的估计系数分别增加到4%和7.3% - 10.7%。本文的结论是,跨境购物行为对事前和事后汇率波动都有响应。
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引用次数: 1
Investor-State Arbitrators' Duties to Non-Parties 投资者-国家仲裁员对非当事人的义务
Pub Date : 2021-07-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3554180
Perry S. Bechky
Arbitrators in investor-state disputes plainly owe duties to the parties. They are appointed to do a job and they must do that job and do it well: competently, diligently, ethically, expeditiously, fairly, impartially and independently, and properly. They must act with sound judgment, due care, and an open mind. But do investor-state arbitrators also owe duties to anyone else? If so, what duties do they owe and to whom? From where do such duties originate? Given that party autonomy is a hallmark of arbitration, may duties to non-parties ever prevail over the will of the parties? How are such duties enforced? And, what does the existence of duties to non-parties mean for the system of international investment arbitration? Investment arbitration was born from a party-centric tradition. But it has become clear that tribunal rulings affect non-parties. Scrutiny is needed of the responsibilities the arbitrators owe those outside the room. This article explores this less-trodden terrain. It begins by establishing a beachhead – a clear example of a duty to a non-party, as a proof of concept – before moving into rougher territory. Thus, it opens with an illustration of a duty created by the treaty establishing the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (“ICSID”): a tribunal must issue a written, reasoned award. After demonstrating that this first duty is owed to ICSID itself as an institution (as well as to the parties), the article adds other duties that investor-state arbitrators owe to arbitral institutions and to non-party participants in investment cases, including other states and non-government organizations. It then introduces the concept of systemic duties, which arbitrators owe not to particular persons, but to the creators of the investment arbitration system (states) and its ultimate beneficiaries (the global public). Finally, the article discusses how recognizing duties to non parties both informs a proper understanding of the investment arbitration system and may help improve that system.
投资者与国家争端的仲裁员显然对当事人负有义务。他们被任命去做一项工作,他们必须胜任、勤奋、合乎道德、迅速、公平、公正、独立和恰当地做好这项工作。他们必须以正确的判断、应有的谨慎和开放的心态行事。但投资者-国家仲裁者是否也对其他任何人负有义务?如果是这样,他们对谁负有什么义务?这些责任从何而来?鉴于当事人自治是仲裁的一个标志,对非当事人的责任是否会凌驾于当事人的意愿之上?这些义务是如何执行的?对非当事方的义务的存在对国际投资仲裁制度意味着什么?投资仲裁诞生于以当事人为中心的传统。但很明显,法庭裁决会影响非当事人。需要审查仲裁员对房间外的人所承担的责任。本文将探索这一较少涉足的领域。它首先建立一个滩头阵地——这是一个对非党派负责的明确例子,作为概念的证明——然后再进入更艰难的领域。因此,它首先说明了设立国际投资争端解决中心(“投资争端解决中心”)的条约所规定的一项义务:法庭必须作出书面的、合理的裁决。在证明了这一第一项义务是对ICSID本身作为一个机构(以及对当事各方)的义务之后,本文增加了投资者-国家仲裁员对仲裁机构和投资案件中的非当事方参与者(包括其他国家和非政府组织)的其他义务。然后介绍了系统义务的概念,即仲裁员对投资仲裁制度的创造者(国家)及其最终受益者(全球公众)而不是对特定的个人负有责任。最后,本文讨论了如何承认对非当事人的义务既有助于正确理解投资仲裁制度,又有助于改进该制度。
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引用次数: 0
Financial Mechanisms of Ensuring the Development of Business under High Interest Rates 高利率下保障企业发展的金融机制
Pub Date : 2021-06-29 DOI: 10.38188/2534-9228.21.2.03
Vitaliy Shapran, Ihor Britchenko
In the given article the problems of choice as for the types and forms of debt and share financing on the developing and “frontier markets” with high interest rates have been considered, the definition of what kind of interest rates can be viewed as high and under which circumstances nominal interest rate and in which ones – the real interest rate is important for business. Also, the classification of debt and sharing financing is given and the comparative analysis of such financing is made. Some close attention has been paid to the calculation of the real interest rate according to the inflation forecast. Recommendations concerning attracting of relatively cheap trade financing including international financial and credit organizations, development of operation factoring, financing from captive financial institutions of the exporters of the materials and equipment from the EU and the US have been grounded. The opportunity of relatively free of charge share financing through the mechanism of placing shares IPO/SPO is emphasized, exemplified by the results of placing shares on stock exchanges and their alternative platforms of issuing banks with businesses in Ukraine in 2005 – 2013. As a result, the conclusion concerning the necessity of thorough analysis of financial conditions on the developing and frontier markets before gaining such financing has been made. High interest rates within the average indicators even on the basis of prime rates do not necessarily mean absence of attractive conditions of financing.
在给定的文章中,考虑了在高利率的发展中市场和“前沿市场”上选择债务和股票融资的类型和形式的问题,以及什么样的利率可以被视为高利率的定义,以及在哪些情况下名义利率和在哪些情况下实际利率对商业很重要。对债务融资和股份融资进行了分类,并对两种融资方式进行了比较分析。人们密切关注根据通货膨胀预测计算实际利率的问题。关于吸引相对廉价的贸易融资,包括国际金融和信贷组织、发展经营保理、从欧盟和美国材料设备出口商的专门金融机构融资的建议已经搁浅。通过2005 - 2013年在乌克兰有业务的发行银行在证券交易所及其替代平台配售股票的结果,强调了通过配售股票IPO/SPO机制进行相对免费的股票融资的机会。因此,在获得此类融资之前,必须对发展中市场和前沿市场的财务状况进行彻底分析。即使在优惠利率的基础上,在平均指标范围内的高利率也不一定意味着缺乏有吸引力的融资条件。
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引用次数: 3
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International Corporate Finance eJournal
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