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Connected Funds 连接基金
Pub Date : 2020-10-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3685223
Daniel Fricke, H. Wilke
Mutual funds often invest in other funds. In this paper, we analyze the economics behind such cross-fund investments and investigate their financial stability implications. Using granular data for the German fund sector, our main findings are that cross-fund investments (a) are becoming increasingly important over time, (b) were heavily liquidated during March 2020, and (c) display measurable contagion effects. Overall, cross-fund investments can elevate structural fund sector vulnerabilities.
共同基金经常投资于其他基金。在本文中,我们分析了这种交叉基金投资背后的经济学,并研究了它们对金融稳定的影响。使用德国基金部门的细粒度数据,我们的主要发现是,跨基金投资(a)随着时间的推移变得越来越重要,(b)在2020年3月期间被大量清算,(c)显示出可衡量的传染效应。总体而言,跨基金投资可能会加剧结构性基金行业的脆弱性。
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引用次数: 6
The Benefits of Issuing Green Bonds: Evidence From China Green Bonds Market 发行绿色债券的好处:来自中国绿色债券市场的证据
Pub Date : 2020-09-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3710646
Dong Wang, P. Li
In 2019, China has become the largest issuance source in the global green bonds market. This paper studies the benefits of green bonds issuance to issuers and investors in China green bond market, including announcement effect, green premium, and the changes of firm financial performance and institutional ownership. First, green bonds issuance has a negative but insignificant announcement effect on the company’s stock return. Then we find that green premium is nearly zero demonstrating that investors are not willing to sacrifice profits for environmentally friendly projects. Thirdly, after green bonds issuance, financial performance of issuers does not have a significant improvement, but institutional ownership ratio has increased notably. In short, there is no significant difference between green bonds and conventional bonds in terms of issuance. Green bonds issuance may not have a direct pecuniary benefit to firms and investors but can be added into portfolios of institutional investors and improve their ESG score.
2019年,中国已成为全球绿色债券市场最大的发行来源国。本文研究了中国绿色债券市场发行绿色债券对发行人和投资者的收益,包括公告效应、绿色溢价、企业财务绩效和机构所有权的变化。首先,绿色债券发行对公司股票收益具有负向但不显著的公告效应。然后我们发现,绿色溢价几乎为零,这表明投资者不愿意为环保项目牺牲利润。第三,绿色债券发行后,发行人的财务业绩没有明显改善,但机构持股比例明显提高。简而言之,绿色债券与传统债券在发行方式上没有显著差异。绿色债券的发行可能不会给企业和投资者带来直接的经济利益,但可以加入机构投资者的投资组合,提高其ESG得分。
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引用次数: 2
How Do International Tax Planning Motives Impact Tax Policy in the Developed, Emerging, and Financial Hub Jurisdictions? 国际税收筹划动机如何影响发达国家、新兴国家和金融中心辖区的税收政策?
Pub Date : 2020-09-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3701630
N. Milogolov
Paper contains an empirical cross-country comparative analysis of international tax policy in relation to MNEs and their FDIs in the context of international tax planning motives. First, I explore and compare the rules aimed at protecting the tax base and countering tax avoidance and the rules aimed at attracting investments. Second, I evaluate the impact of these corporate tax rules on the FDIs. My findings show that the countries with different fundamental economic characteristics use different tax policy to compete for FDIs by the MNEs. I highlight three groups of countries with differing tax competition behaviours: (a) emerging economies, (b) large-scale, developed economies and (c) financial centres. Financial centres with anomaly higher level of FDIs passing through them adopt the most open tax policy which drives the global tax competition for financial capital, while both larger developed and emerging economies adopt more defensive corporate tax policy that is motivated by the fiscal considerations.
本文对跨国公司及其外商直接投资在国际税收筹划动机背景下的国际税收政策进行了实证跨国比较分析。首先,我探索和比较了旨在保护税基和打击避税的规则和旨在吸引投资的规则。其次,我评估了这些公司税规则对外国直接投资的影响。我的研究结果表明,具有不同基本经济特征的国家使用不同的税收政策来竞争跨国公司的外国直接投资。我强调三组具有不同税收竞争行为的国家:(a)新兴经济体,(b)大型发达经济体和(c)金融中心。外国直接投资水平异常高的金融中心采取最开放的税收政策,这推动了全球对金融资本的税收竞争,而较大的发达经济体和新兴经济体都采取了更具防御性的公司税政策,这是出于财政考虑。
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引用次数: 0
Workforce Aging, Pension Reforms, and Firm Outcomes 劳动力老龄化、养老金改革与企业绩效
Pub Date : 2020-09-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3710129
F. Carta, F. D’Amuri, Till M von Wachter
Raising statutory retirement ages has been a popular policy to increase the labor supply of older workers in the face of population aging. In this paper, we quantify the effect of a sharp and unexpected increase in retirement ages on firms’ input mix and economic outcomes using Italian administrative and survey data on employment, wages, value added and capital. Exploiting information on lifetime pension contributions for the universe of employees, we are able to quantify the extra number of older workers employed by each firm as a result of the reform. We find that a 10 per cent increase in older workers implies a rise in employment of young and middle-aged workers of 1.8 per cent and 1.3 per cent, respectively. Total labor costs and value added increase broadly in line with employment, with little impact on labor productivity and unit labor costs. These results suggest older workers are valuable to employers and that pension reforms postponing retirement can remove a constraint rather than place a burden on firms.
面对人口老龄化,提高法定退休年龄是增加老年劳动力供给的一项受欢迎的政策。在本文中,我们利用意大利有关就业、工资、增加值和资本的行政和调查数据,量化了退休年龄急剧和意外提高对企业投入结构和经济结果的影响。利用所有雇员的终身养老金缴款信息,我们能够量化每家公司因改革而额外雇用的老年工人数量。我们发现,老年工人增加10%,意味着青年和中年工人的就业率分别增加1.8%和1.3%。劳动总成本和增加值与就业增长基本一致,对劳动生产率和单位劳动成本影响不大。这些结果表明,老年员工对雇主来说是有价值的,推迟退休的养老金改革可以消除一种约束,而不是给企业带来负担。
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引用次数: 33
Economic Effects of Novel Coronavirus (COVID – 19) on the Global Economy 新型冠状病毒(COVID - 19)对全球经济的影响
Pub Date : 2020-09-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3719130
Gilbert Ndutu Munywoki
At the end of 2019 December, the world registered an outbreak of an international pandemic, at China’s Hubei province. At the beginning of 2020, the virus started spreading to all corners of the world. The new novel Coronavirus Disease-19 is expected to affect global economic growth, development, stability and even recovery once the disease is over. Businesses that rely heavily on face-to-face module are likely to face huge economic losses as compared to those whose employees can work from home. The complex interconnected system of different economy actors makes the effects of the pandemic to be transmitted relatively equally to all countries. The world is on verge of witnessing a lapse in economic growth in terms of lack of employment, defaulting, disruption of supply chains, slow production growth and decline in global shares. Worse still, the adverse effects of Coronavirus disease will hit hard on emerging markets (EMs) who rely on local and external credits that are subject to domestic and international currency (FX). As the world continues to embrace protective measures to cut down transmission rate and keep the pandemic in control, more feasible and holistic approaches are needed to effectively inflate the bubble and enable the global economy to thrive.
2019年12月底,世界上在中国湖北省爆发了一场国际大流行。2020年初,新冠病毒开始向世界各个角落蔓延。新冠肺炎疫情一旦结束,将影响全球经济增长、发展、稳定甚至复苏。与那些员工可以在家工作的企业相比,严重依赖面对面模式的企业可能会面临巨大的经济损失。不同经济行为者组成的复杂的相互关联的系统使得大流行病的影响相对平等地传播到所有国家。由于缺乏就业、违约、供应链中断、生产增长缓慢和全球股市下跌,世界正处于经济增长停滞的边缘。更糟糕的是,冠状病毒病的不利影响将严重打击依赖本地和外部信贷的新兴市场(em),这些信贷受国内和国际货币(外汇)影响。在世界各国继续采取保护措施以降低传播率、控制疫情的同时,需要采取更可行、更全面的措施,有效地吹胀泡沫,使全球经济蓬勃发展。
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引用次数: 2
A Demonstration and Explanation of why Macroeconomic Factors Aren’t Reliable Indicators of Australian Stock Market Returns 为什么宏观经济因素不是澳大利亚股市收益的可靠指标的论证和解释
Pub Date : 2020-09-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3688618
John R. Evans, Xingzhuo Wang
The determination of leading indicators of stock market returns is of interest to both practitioners and academics. This paper analyses the validity of the recent macroeconomic factors indicated in the literature as providing a reliable indication of Australian stock market returns and concludes that the macroeconomic factors are not reliable indicators of stock market returns across time. The paper notes that the unreliability observed across time is consistent with financial markets being complex adaptive systems.
股票市场收益领先指标的确定是从业人员和学者都感兴趣的问题。本文分析了文献中最近的宏观经济因素作为澳大利亚股市回报的可靠指标的有效性,并得出结论,宏观经济因素不是股票市场回报的可靠指标。本文指出,随着时间的推移,观察到的不可靠性与金融市场是复杂的自适应系统相一致。
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引用次数: 0
Consolidation and Legacy of Foreign Currency Household Lending in Central and Eastern Europe: The Case of Hungary 中欧和东欧外币家庭贷款的整合和遗留问题:以匈牙利为例
Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.5709/ce.1897-9254.410
Pál Péter Kolozsi, Lentner Csaba
During the first decade of the 21st century, household FX loans spread in numerous countries in Central and Eastern Europe, where they caused serious macroeconomic and social problems with the spillover of the global financial crisis. Disregarding countries that joined the euro area, Hungary was the only state where household FX loans were completely phased out. The aim of the paper is to provide a structured presentation of the circumstances of the FX loan conversion in Hungary and to assess the potential risks related to the post FX loan period. The paper reviews the relevant international literature about the causes and the impact of unsecured FX lending in the household sector and analyses the phasing-out of the household FX loans in Hungary from the point of view of the legal considerations, the interest rate environment, the macroeconomic stability, the elbowroom in FX reserves and the timing of the process. The paper concludes that the conversion happened at the first date which was legally allowed and economically properly underpinned. The paper also presents that the central bank reacted to the new challenges of the phasing-out process with new macroprudential tools to prevent excessive indebtedness and over-lending, to reduce households' interest rate risks, and to ensure that customers have appropriate income reserves, in order to improve the quality and sustainability of lending to households in the future.
21世纪头十年,家庭外汇贷款在中欧和东欧许多国家蔓延,随着全球金融危机的外溢,在这些国家造成了严重的宏观经济和社会问题。不考虑加入欧元区的国家,匈牙利是唯一一个家庭外汇贷款被完全淘汰的国家。本文的目的是提供匈牙利外汇贷款转换情况的结构化介绍,并评估与后外汇贷款期相关的潜在风险。本文回顾了有关家庭部门无担保外汇贷款的原因和影响的相关国际文献,并从法律考虑、利率环境、宏观经济稳定、外汇储备的回旋余地和这一过程的时机等方面分析了匈牙利家庭外汇贷款的逐步淘汰。本文的结论是,转换发生在法律允许和经济上适当支持的第一个日期。本文还提出,中央银行应对逐步退出过程的新挑战,采用新的宏观审慎工具,以防止过度负债和过度放贷,降低家庭的利率风险,并确保客户有适当的收入储备,以提高未来家庭贷款的质量和可持续性。
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引用次数: 2
Does Openness, and Productivity Matters for FDI: A Global interactive Analysis Based on the Complementary Role of Institutions. 开放和生产率对外国直接投资是否重要:基于制度互补作用的全球互动分析。
Pub Date : 2020-08-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3683116
Humaira Raffat, D. Siddiqui
Conventional wisdom suggested that investment flows in where you have abnormal returns that resulted in a high productivity area. However, FDI behaves peculiarly, as most are targeted towards developed countries where excess competition drives down returns and ultimately productivity. On the contrary, it shy in developing countries where one has more productive investment opportunities. This study tries to tackle the problem and explores the factors that influenced FDI flows. In particular, we focused on productivity, trade openness, financial liberalization, and institutions. Macro-level data was collected from 27 economies from 2004 to 2015. The analysis was done using GMM methodology. The results showed productivity remained insignificant in explaining FDI throughout the models. Trade seems to have a significant positive impact on the model without the interaction effect. Interestingly, financial liberalization seems to affect FDI negatively in all cases. GDP growth had a positive and significant effect. All Institutional variables that include control of corruption, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, seems to have a significant positive impact on FDI individually, as well as in the combined form. We also witnessed significant and positive complementarities with each of the institutional factors and productivity, in explaining FDI. This indicated that higher productivity is not the deciding factor of FDI, however, the same productivity in a better institutional environment would produce positive complementarity that would significantly determine FDI. The findings imply that investors' prime concern is not productivity but the institutional environment. Moreover, only with quality institutions, the conventional wisdom persists.
传统观点认为,投资会流向有异常回报的地方,从而产生高生产率。然而,外国直接投资的表现很特别,因为大多数外国直接投资的目标是发达国家,在这些国家,过度竞争压低了回报,最终压低了生产率。相反,在拥有更多生产性投资机会的发展中国家,这是一种害羞。本文试图解决这一问题,并探讨影响FDI流动的因素。我们特别关注生产力、贸易开放、金融自由化和制度。宏观层面的数据收集自2004年至2015年的27个经济体。使用GMM方法进行分析。结果表明,在整个模型中,生产率对FDI的解释仍然不显著。贸易似乎对模型有显著的正向影响,但不存在交互效应。有趣的是,金融自由化似乎在所有情况下都对外国直接投资产生负面影响。GDP增长具有显著的正向影响。所有制度变量,包括控制腐败、政府效率、监管质量、法治,似乎都对外国直接投资有显著的积极影响,无论是单独的还是综合的。我们还看到,在解释外国直接投资时,每一个体制因素和生产力都具有重要和积极的互补性。这表明较高的生产率不是外国直接投资的决定因素,但是,在较好的体制环境下同样的生产率将产生积极的互补性,这将大大决定外国直接投资。研究结果表明,投资者最关心的不是生产率,而是制度环境。此外,只有拥有高质量的机构,传统智慧才会持续存在。
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引用次数: 0
Investor Communication and the Benefits of Cross-Listing 投资者沟通与交叉上市的好处
Pub Date : 2020-08-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3682245
N. Reiter
Abstract While studies have sought to explain the benefits of cross-listing, little attention has been paid to the role of communication between managers and investors during this process. In this paper, I investigate whether managers change communication policies around U.S. cross-listings. I document significant increases in communication when firms cross-list. I then test whether these investor communication practices around cross-listing are associated with capital market benefits. I find that cross-listed firms that communicate more with investors experience greater and longer lasting cross-listing benefits. Lastly, I explore two potential reasons that may lead managers to choose higher levels of communication: to support an increase in investor recognition and to facilitate monitoring. I find results consistent with communication increasing visibility and scrutiny, suggesting that communication functions as a supporting tool to achieve managers’ cross-listing goals.
虽然研究试图解释交叉上市的好处,但很少注意到在这一过程中管理者和投资者之间的沟通所起的作用。在本文中,我调查了管理者是否改变了美国交叉上市的沟通政策。我记录了公司交叉上市时沟通的显著增加。然后,我测试了这些围绕交叉上市的投资者沟通实践是否与资本市场利益有关。我发现交叉上市公司与投资者的沟通越多,交叉上市的收益就越大,持续时间也越长。最后,我探讨了可能导致管理者选择更高层次沟通的两个潜在原因:支持增加投资者的认可,并促进监督。我发现与沟通一致的结果增加了可见性和审查,这表明沟通是实现管理者交叉上市目标的辅助工具。
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引用次数: 14
A Stabilization Fund for Countries Facing Market Turmoil 为面临市场动荡的国家设立的稳定基金
Pub Date : 2020-08-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3745868
Mark Walker, C. Canavan
A state-contingent financing facility would be an effective way to help mediate the economic and financial shocks resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. An SSB could mobilize large amounts of financial resources from the international capital markets and provide cash flow relief to sovereign debtors without market access on attractive terms that reflect both a country’s liquidity requirements and its ability to service its obligations without adding to financial stress. A synthetic stabilization fund (SSB) sponsored by a credible official sector institution could provide state-contingent financing much like traditional stabilization funds. Thus, the amount and timing of funds available to a country, as well as the amount and timing of repayment should be linked to the performance of a proxy for a country’s financial position, such as commodity prices or export revenues. Unlike a traditional stabilization fund, the initial capital of an SSB would be raised in the private markets with credit support from official and bilateral sources to assure long-term funding at reasonable cost.
国家应急融资机制将是帮助调解新冠肺炎大流行带来的经济和金融冲击的有效途径。SSB可以从国际资本市场调动大量财政资源,并向无法进入市场的主权债务人提供现金流量救济,其条件既能反映一国的流动性要求,也能反映该国在不增加财政压力的情况下偿还债务的能力。一个由可靠的官方机构发起的综合稳定基金(SSB)可以像传统的稳定基金一样提供国家应急融资。因此,一个国家可获得的资金数额和时间以及偿还的数额和时间应与一国财政状况的表现挂钩,例如商品价格或出口收入。与传统的稳定基金不同,稳定基金的初始资本将在私人市场筹集,并得到官方和双边来源的信贷支持,以确保以合理的成本获得长期资金。
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引用次数: 0
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International Corporate Finance eJournal
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