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Company Headquarters, Local Conservatism and Earnings Management 公司总部、地方稳健性与盈余管理
Pub Date : 2020-08-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3679513
Emrah Arioglu
Previous literature demonstrates that local cultural values influence the corporate decisions and outcomes of companies headquartered in those locations. Based on this premise, the findings of the current study demonstrate that the conservatism levels of provinces of company headquarters of non-financial public companies quoted at the Borsa Istanbul between the years 2009 and 2017 are positively related to companies’ discretionary current accruals levels. Similar findings are derived for the provinces of corporate incorporation. The findings also demonstrate that there is a statistically significantly positive relationship between discretionary current accruals and subsequent operating performances of companies, on average. Based on the argument in previous literature that more conservative individuals are likely to make more ethical decisions, these findings can be considered suggesting that earnings are managed with an informative intend in the Turkish setting where potential motives for company executives to manage earnings opportunistically are not likely to be strong. The findings are robust to various proxies and model specifications, and they contradict the findings of the majority of previous studies.
先前的文献表明,当地文化价值观影响总部设在这些地区的公司的决策和结果。基于这一前提,本研究的结果表明,2009 - 2017年在伊斯坦布尔证券交易所上市的非金融类上市公司总部所在省份的保守性水平与公司可自由支配的当期应计利润水平呈正相关。公司注册省份也得出了类似的结果。研究结果还表明,平均而言,公司的可自由支配的当期应计利润与后续经营绩效之间存在统计学上显著的正相关关系。基于先前文献中的论点,即更保守的个人可能会做出更多的道德决策,这些发现可以被认为表明,在土耳其的背景下,公司高管机会主义地管理收益的潜在动机不太可能很强,因此盈余管理具有信息性意图。这些发现对于各种代理和模型规范都是稳健的,并且它们与之前大多数研究的发现相矛盾。
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引用次数: 1
Risks Facing the International Banking System 国际银行体系面临的风险
Pub Date : 2020-08-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3674808
Deborah Baffour-Awuah
The paper addresses some of the main threats facing the international banking system. Some of the issues are illiquidity, insolvency, country risk and international lending risk. Currency risk and large bureaucratic structures leading to operational risks are all threats to the international banking system.
本文论述了国际银行体系面临的一些主要威胁。其中一些问题是流动性不足、资不抵债、国家风险和国际贷款风险。货币风险和导致操作风险的庞大官僚结构都是对国际银行体系的威胁。
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引用次数: 0
Executives in Politics 政界高管
Pub Date : 2020-08-15 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3075177
I. Babenko, Viktar Fedaseyeu, Song Zhang
We study the involvement of corporate executives in U.S. politics over the last 40 years. First, we document that the share of business politicians in federal elected office increased from 13.3% in 1980% to 22.6% in 2018, with most of the increase occurring over the last two decades. Second, we find that business politicians enjoy an early fundraising advantage over their opponents, both because they are more likely to self-fund their campaigns and because they receive more campaign contributions from their firms. Third, the election of business politicians benefits their industries and firms, which experience positive abnormal stock returns when their executives win political office. We also show that business politicians, once elected, vote for policies that shift the balance of power toward corporate interests. Using close elections for identification, we show that this policy shift cannot be attributed solely to the changes in the underlying preferences of the electorate. Overall, our results indicate that corporate executives have become more involved in U.S. politics and that this involvement has benefited business interests and affected aggregate legislative outcomes. This paper was accepted by Gustavo Manso, finance. Funding: The authors thank the Digital Age Management Research Area at the China Europe International Business School (CEIBS) and Centre for Applied Research on International Markets, Banking, Finance and Regulation (BAFFI CAREFIN) at Bocconi University for financial support. The Area and the Center played no role in study design, data collection and analysis, or preparation of the manuscript. Supplemental Material: The data files and online appendix are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4595 .
我们研究了过去40年来企业高管对美国政治的参与。首先,我们记录了商业政治家在联邦民选公职中的比例从1980年的13.3%上升到2018年的22.6%,其中大部分增长发生在过去20年。其次,我们发现商业政治家比他们的对手享有早期筹款优势,这既是因为他们更有可能为自己的竞选活动提供资金,也是因为他们从自己的公司获得更多的竞选捐款。第三,商业政治家的选举有利于他们的行业和公司,当他们的高管赢得政治职位时,这些行业和公司会经历正的异常股票回报。我们还表明,商业政治家一旦当选,就会投票支持将权力平衡转向公司利益的政策。我们使用接近的选举来识别,表明这种政策转变不能仅仅归因于选民潜在偏好的变化。总体而言,我们的研究结果表明,企业高管越来越多地参与美国政治,这种参与使商业利益受益,并影响了总体立法结果。这篇论文被金融学的Gustavo Manso接受。资助:作者感谢中欧国际工商学院(CEIBS)数字时代管理研究领域和博科尼大学国际市场、银行、金融与监管应用研究中心(BAFFI CAREFIN)的资金支持。区域和中心在研究设计、数据收集和分析或手稿准备中没有发挥任何作用。补充材料:数据文件和在线附录可在https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4595上获得。
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引用次数: 5
Volatility Depend on Market Trades and Macro Theory 波动取决于市场交易和宏观理论
Pub Date : 2020-08-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3674432
Victor Olkhov
This paper presents probability distributions for price and returns random processes for averaging time interval {Delta}. These probabilities determine properties of price and returns volatility. We define statistical moments for price and returns random processes as functions of the costs and the volumes of market trades aggregated during interval {Delta}. These sets of statistical moments determine characteristic functionals for price and returns probability distributions. Volatilities are described by first two statistical moments. Second statistical moments are described by functions of second degree of the cost and the volumes of market trades aggregated during interval {Delta}. We present price and returns volatilities as functions of number of trades and second degree costs and volumes of market trades aggregated during interval {Delta}. These expressions support numerous results on correlations between returns volatility, number of trades and the volume of market transactions. Forecasting the price and returns volatilities depend on modeling the second degree of the costs and the volumes of market trades aggregated during interval {Delta}. Second degree market trades impact second degree of macro variables and expectations. Description of the second degree market trades, macro variables and expectations doubles the complexity of the current macroeconomic and financial theory.
本文给出了价格的概率分布,并返回了平均时间间隔{Delta}的随机过程。这些概率决定了价格和收益的波动性。我们定义价格的统计时刻,并返回随机过程作为成本和市场交易总量在区间{Delta}期间的函数。这些统计矩集决定了价格和收益概率分布的特征函数。波动率由前两个统计矩描述。第二统计矩由成本和市场交易量在区间{Delta}期间聚合的二度函数来描述。在区间{Delta}期间,我们将价格和收益波动率表示为交易数量和二度成本以及市场交易量的函数。这些表达式支持收益、波动性、交易数量和市场交易量之间相关性的许多结果。预测价格和收益波动取决于对成本和市场交易量在区间{Delta}期间汇总的第二度建模。二度市场交易影响二度宏观变量和预期。二级市场交易、宏观变量和预期的描述使当前宏观经济和金融理论的复杂性增加了一倍。
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引用次数: 4
Capital Market Consequences of the Libor Scandal and Phaseout for Public Borrowers Libor丑闻对资本市场的影响以及公共借款人的逐步退出
Pub Date : 2020-08-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3673505
J. Berkovitch, Henry L. Friedman, Daniel Saavedra
The London Interbank Offer Rate (LIBOR), based on inputs from banks, is plausibly the most important set of reference interest rates in the world. Following the LIBOR rigging scandal and the post-2008 decline in interbank lending underpinning LIBOR, banks and regulators have agreed to sustain LIBOR only through the end of 2021, after which, LIBOR updates are likely to cease. In this paper, we use an event-based design to study the implications of the LIBOR scandal and phaseout (LSP) on capital markets, focusing on firms with U.S.-traded public debt. Using LSP events as exogenous shocks to the optimality of existing contracts, we provide causal evidence on the effects of the LSP on firms and their stakeholders. Our findings suggest that the consequences of the LSP, as measured by stock and bond returns, are immaterial for the average firm, but negative for firms with fewer outside options to renegotiate or repurchase debt (i.e., with credit ratings below investment grade or lower interest coverage ratios). These results suggest that the negative consequences of the LSP have mostly been borne by the shareholders and bondholders of borrowers with limited options to renegotiate or repurchase debt.
基于银行输入的伦敦银行同业拆借利率(LIBOR)似乎是世界上最重要的参考利率。在LIBOR操纵丑闻和2008年后支撑LIBOR的银行间贷款下降之后,银行和监管机构已同意将LIBOR维持到2021年底,之后LIBOR可能会停止更新。在本文中,我们使用基于事件的设计来研究LIBOR丑闻和逐步淘汰(LSP)对资本市场的影响,重点关注持有美国上市公共债务的公司。利用LSP事件作为对现有契约最优性的外生冲击,我们提供了LSP对企业及其利益相关者影响的因果证据。我们的研究结果表明,以股票和债券回报衡量,LSP的后果对一般公司来说是无关紧要的,但对那些外部选择较少的公司来说是负面的,这些公司可以重新谈判或回购债务(即,信用评级低于投资级或利息覆盖率较低)。这些结果表明,LSP的负面影响主要由借款人的股东和债券持有人承担,借款人的重新谈判或回购债务的选择权有限。
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引用次数: 1
War with Sovereign Debt 主权债务之战
Pub Date : 2020-08-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3241101
Colin Krainin, Kristopher W. Ramsay, Bella Wang, Joseph J Ruggiero
Current thinking on the causes of war focuses on bargaining strategies, resources on hand, and the ability to make transfers as drivers of conflict. This view ignores the important role access to credit can play in shaping war and peace. We explore how financial markets impact the potential for interstate war. We demonstrate that access to capital markets increase the possibility of peace, but preventive war remainspossible. The effects of the market on crisis outcomes is through the price of debt and that prices are determined by market conditions like the risk free interest rate and state specific conditions like the likelihood of default.
目前对战争起因的思考集中在讨价还价策略、手头资源以及作为冲突驱动因素的转移能力上。这种观点忽视了获得信贷在塑造战争与和平方面可能发挥的重要作用。我们将探讨金融市场如何影响国家间战争的可能性。我们表明,进入资本市场增加了和平的可能性,但预防性战争仍然是可能的。市场对危机结果的影响是通过债务的价格来实现的,而价格是由市场条件决定的,比如无风险利率和国家特定条件,比如违约的可能性。
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引用次数: 1
Expected Market Returns in the International Cross-Section 国际横截面的预期市场回报
Pub Date : 2020-08-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3671472
H. Berkman, H. Malloch
Two recent articles, Martin (2017) and Chabi-Yo and Loudis (2019), derive a lower bound for the expected market risk premium that does not require parameter estimation and can be computed in real time. Based on evidence from 15 international markets, we cannot reject the hypothesis that these expected return lower bounds are tight. Furthermore, asset pricing factors that are insignificant in asset pricing tests if realized returns are used as expected return proxy become significant when expected market risk premium lower bounds are used instead; for example, the lower bound is higher for countries with greater exposure to global and regional stock markets and for countries with high exposure to the dollar and carry factors. Finally, we find that a strategy that takes a long position in markets with relatively high expected returns and a short position in markets with relatively low expected returns, yields statistically significant positive returns that are not explained by traditional risk factors.
最近的两篇文章,Martin(2017)和Chabi-Yo and Loudis(2019),推导了预期市场风险溢价的下界,该下界不需要参数估计,可以实时计算。基于来自15个国际市场的证据,我们不能拒绝这样的假设:这些预期收益下限很紧。此外,当以实现收益作为预期收益代理时,在资产定价检验中不显著的资产定价因素在使用预期市场风险溢价下界时变得显著;例如,受全球和地区股市影响较大的国家,以及受美元和利差因素影响较大的国家,其下限较高。最后,我们发现,在预期收益相对较高的市场上做多,在预期收益相对较低的市场上做空的策略,可以产生统计上显著的正收益,这是传统风险因素无法解释的。
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引用次数: 1
The Advanced Proposed Architecture of Eco-Currency; Technical Analysis of West Africa Single Currency Program 生态货币的高级体系结构研究西非单一货币方案技术分析
Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3663885
Emmanuel Tweneboah Senzu
The different target of the time period has been established over the past two decades in the institutionalization of a single currency union in West Africa. Depending on varied reasons the proposed programs have always failed before the set timelines in respect of ECOWAS monetary unification and single currency adoption. As a result, the paper explored and developed its argument based on the existing studies of structured economic shocks, significant to the failure of the single currency union, and its major causal factors. And with observed structured analysis propose catalytic activator method as a theoretical guide to attain the single currency union within three (3) years ahead, if the necessary requirement as the commitment level of members’ State is applied towards the single currency unification program. It then elaborates in the spirit of precision the process required to sustain the eco-currency program in other to elevate members State in an out-date of its domestic currencies struggling as a subservient economic bloc to the adoption of a new anticipated domineering currency in its own merit to shoulder with the global dominating hard currencies.
在过去二十年中,西非单一货币联盟的制度化确立了这一时期的不同目标。由于各种原因,拟议的方案总是在西非经共体货币统一和采用单一货币方面的规定时限之前失败。因此,本文基于对单一货币联盟失败的结构性经济冲击及其主要原因的现有研究,探索并发展了自己的论点。并通过观察到的结构化分析,提出催化活化剂法作为在未来三(3)年内实现单一货币联盟的理论指导,如果必要的要求作为成员国的承诺水平适用于单一货币统一计划。然后,它以精确的精神阐述了在其他国家维持生态货币计划所需的过程,以提升成员国在其国内货币作为从属经济集团的过时中挣扎,以采用一种新的预期的霸道货币,以其自身的优点与全球主导的硬通货承担责任。
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引用次数: 1
Financial Friction and Gains (Losses) from Trade 金融摩擦和贸易收益(损失)
Pub Date : 2020-07-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3662834
M. Ebrahimian, Hamid Firooz
How does financial friction influence gains from trade? To answer this question, this paper develops a general equilibrium model of international trade with cross-country financial friction heterogeneity, as the source of comparative advantage. Although product markets are competitive, production of firms in finance-dependent sectors of a closed economy is supported by a markup over marginal cost, so that a higher profit prevents firms from strategically defaulting on loans. Trade liberalization reduces the price of the finance-dependent good, which benefits the consumers; however, economic rents of producing finance-dependent goods flow out to the financially less-frictional economy, which is welfare-reducing. In sum, gains/losses from trade is determined by the financing friction severity of the partner country. We test the empirical predictions of the model. In particular, while we show that financial development matters for the growth of finance-dependent industries in open economies, we do not find such an evidence for closed economies.
金融摩擦如何影响贸易收益?为了回答这一问题,本文建立了一个以跨国金融摩擦异质性为比较优势来源的国际贸易一般均衡模型。虽然产品市场是竞争的,但封闭经济中依赖金融部门的企业的生产是由边际成本加价支持的,因此更高的利润可以防止企业在战略上违约。贸易自由化降低了依赖金融的商品的价格,这对消费者有利;然而,生产依赖金融的商品的经济租金流向金融摩擦较小的经济体,这是减少福利的。总而言之,贸易的收益/损失取决于伙伴国的融资摩擦严重程度。我们检验了模型的经验预测。特别是,虽然我们表明,金融发展对开放经济体中依赖金融的行业的增长至关重要,但我们没有在封闭经济体中找到这样的证据。
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引用次数: 0
Insights into Auditor Public Oversight Boards: Whether, How, and Why they 'Work' 洞察审计公共监督委员会:它们是否“工作”、如何“工作”以及为什么“工作”
Pub Date : 2020-07-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3527584
Michelle Hanlon, Nemit Shroff
We survey 170 inspectors, representing 27% of the inspection staff, from auditor public oversight boards (POBs) in 20 countries to understand whether, how, and why auditors change auditing practices in response to POB oversight. We ask about several theories and areas in the literature. We find that a large majority of POB inspectors believe that auditors frequently respond to inspector feedback by changing audit procedures and quality control systems. Inspectors perceive inspections to have broad effects on several aspects of auditing, ranging from documentation, scrutiny of management estimates, and training to changes in the audit-quality review process, firm culture and on occasion even compensation policies. Inspectors perceive that the primary reasons why auditors respond to their feedback are 1) POB enforcement capabilities, 2) the perceived authority of the POBs, 3) public disclosure of inspection findings, and 4) that POBs have a culture conducive for detecting auditing deficiencies. Cross-sectional tests suggest that inspection frequency and the number of inspectors employed by a POB also affect the perceived extent to which auditors respond to inspection feedback.
我们调查了来自20个国家的审计公共监督委员会(POB)的170名检查员,占检查人员的27%,以了解审计人员是否、如何以及为什么要改变审计实践以应对POB的监督。我们询问了文献中的几个理论和领域。我们发现绝大多数POB检查员认为审核员经常通过改变审计程序和质量控制系统来回应审核员的反馈。检查员认为检查对审计的几个方面有广泛的影响,从文件、管理估计的审查、培训到审计质量审查过程的变化、公司文化,有时甚至是补偿政策。检查员认为审计师对他们的反馈做出回应的主要原因是:1)POB的执行能力,2)POB的权威性,3)检查结果的公开披露,以及4)POB具有有利于发现审计缺陷的文化。横断面测试表明,检查频率和POB雇用的检查员人数也影响审核员对检查反馈的反应程度。
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引用次数: 19
期刊
International Corporate Finance eJournal
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