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Hype, skin in the game, and the stability of cooperative science 炒作,游戏中的皮肤,以及合作科学的稳定性
IF 1.7 4区 物理与天体物理 Q3 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Pub Date : 2022-06-24 DOI: 10.1017/s1473550422000222
A. Lenardic, J. Seales, A. Covington
We address a recently posed question: ‘Why Do So Many Astronomy (and Astrobiology) Discoveries Fail to Live Up to the Hype?’ We expand it to cover hype within science in general. Our answer relies on working definitions of hype and skin in the game, as applied to research science, and a game theory model for the stability of cooperative science. Low skin in the game allows internal feedbacks, within the research science community, to initiate increased hype and a drift toward structural instability. The instability leads to the deterioration of cooperative equilibria, which further enhances hype. Along the drift, the number of results hyped as breakthroughs will increase and more claims will fail to live up to the hype. This can lead to the public perception that science is moving backwards and a shift in the perception of what scientists, and science, values. Although a hype instability can be initiated by external nudges, a bigger role is played by the internal dynamics of the system, i.e. the collective of working scientists. Corrections for a drift toward instability should, likewise, focus on internal structure. Proposed external shifts on how research is disseminated will add restrictions to a system that can do more harm than good.
我们解决了最近提出的一个问题:“为什么这么多天文学(和天体生物学)发现没有达到预期?”我们将其扩展到一般科学领域的炒作。我们的答案依赖于应用于研究科学的游戏中炒作和皮肤的有效定义,以及合作科学稳定性的博弈论模型。游戏中的低皮肤允许研究科学界内部的反馈,引发更多的炒作和结构不稳定。这种不稳定性导致合作均衡的恶化,这进一步加剧了炒作。随着时间的推移,随着突破而炒作的结果数量将增加,更多的索赔将达不到炒作的效果。这可能导致公众认为科学正在倒退,并改变对科学家和科学价值观的看法。尽管炒作的不稳定性可能是由外部推动引起的,但系统的内部动态,即工作科学家的集体,发挥了更大的作用。同样,对不稳定倾向的修正也应侧重于内部结构。关于研究传播方式的拟议外部转变将给一个弊大于利的系统增加限制。
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引用次数: 1
Astrophysical existential threats: a comparative analysis 天体物理存在的威胁:比较分析
IF 1.7 4区 物理与天体物理 Q3 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Pub Date : 2022-06-17 DOI: 10.1017/s1473550422000167
Niamh Burns, William T. Parsons
Using a simple, coarse-grained Poisson process model, we calculate – for seven types of astrophysical catastrophe – both their individual and combined threat to complex lifeforms (extraterrestrial intelligences (ETIs)) throughout the Milky Way Galaxy. In terms of cumulative effects, we calculate that ETIs are likely to be astrophysically driven extinct on timescales of roughly once every 100 million years. In terms of comparative effects, large bolide impactors represent the most significant type of astrophysical contribution to the galaxy-wide debilitation of hypothesized ETI civilizations. Nonetheless, we conclude that astrophysical existential threats – whether taken singly or in combination – are likely insufficient, alone, to explain the Fermi Paradox. Astrophysical catastrophes, while both deadly and ubiquitous, do not appear to be frequent enough to wipe out every species in the Galaxy before they can attain or utilize spacefaring status.
使用一个简单的粗粒度泊松过程模型,我们计算了七种类型的天体物理灾难,包括它们对整个银河系复杂生命形式(地外智能(ETI))的单独和组合威胁。就累积效应而言,我们计算出ETI很可能在大约每1亿年一次的时间尺度上被天体物理驱动灭绝。就比较效应而言,大型玻利维亚撞击物代表了对假设的ETI文明在银河系范围内衰弱的最重要的天体物理学贡献。尽管如此,我们得出的结论是,天体物理学的生存威胁——无论是单独还是组合——都可能不足以单独解释费米悖论。虽然天体物理灾难既致命又普遍,但在银河系中的每一个物种获得或利用太空地位之前,它们似乎还不足以灭绝。
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引用次数: 0
Megatsunamis and microbial life on early Mars 早期火星上的大海啸和微生物生命
IF 1.7 4区 物理与天体物理 Q3 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Pub Date : 2022-06-15 DOI: 10.1017/s1473550422000209
H. Veysi
It is currently believed that early Mars had a vast and shallow ocean, and microbial life may have formed in it, albeit for a short geological time. The geological evidence indicates that during the existence of this ocean, large collisions occurred on the surface of Mars, which led to the formation of megatsunamis in its palaeo-ocean. Previous research has reported on the effects of tsunami waves on microbial ecosystems in the Earth's oceans. This work indicates that tsunami waves can cause changes in the physico-chemical properties of seawater, as well as tsunami-affected land soils. These factors can certainly affect microbial life. Other researchers have shown that there are large microbial communities of marine prokaryotes (bacteria and archaea) in tsunami-induced sediments. These results led us to investigate the impact of tsunami waves on the proposed microbial life in the ancient Martian ocean, and its role in the preservation or non-preservation of Martian microbial life as a fossil signature.
目前人们认为,早期火星有一片广阔而浅的海洋,微生物生命可能在其中形成,尽管时间很短。地质证据表明,在这片海洋存在期间,火星表面发生了大规模碰撞,导致其古海洋形成了大海啸。先前的研究已经报道了海啸对地球海洋微生物生态系统的影响。这项工作表明,海啸波会导致海水以及受海啸影响的陆地土壤的物理化学性质发生变化。这些因素肯定会影响微生物的生活。其他研究人员已经表明,海啸引发的沉积物中存在大型海洋原核生物微生物群落(细菌和古菌)。这些结果使我们研究了海啸波对古代火星海洋中拟议的微生物生命的影响,以及它作为化石特征在保存或不保存火星微生物生命中的作用。
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引用次数: 0
The Fermi paradox: impact of astrophysical processes and dynamical evolution 费米悖论:天体物理过程和动力学演化的影响
IF 1.7 4区 物理与天体物理 Q3 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Pub Date : 2022-06-14 DOI: 10.1017/S147355042200026X
D. Schleicher, S. Bovino
The Fermi paradox has given rise to various attempts to explain why no evidence of extraterrestrial civilizations was found so far on Earth and in our Solar System. Here, we present a dynamical model for the development of such civilizations, which accounts for self-destruction, colonization and astrophysical destruction mechanisms of civilizations including gamma-ray bursts, type Ia and type II supernovae as well as radiation from the supermassive black hole. We adopt conservative estimates regarding the efficiency of such processes and find that astrophysical effects can influence the development of intelligent civilizations and change the number of systems with such civilizations by roughly a factor of $2$ ; potentially more if the feedback is enhanced. Our results show that non-equilibrium evolution allows for solutions in-between extreme cases such as ‘rare Earth’ or extreme colonization, including scenarios with civilization fractions between $10^{-2}$ and $10^{-7}$ . These would imply still potentially large distances to the next such civilizations, particularly when persistence phenomena are being considered. As previous studies, we confirm that the main uncertainties are due to the lifetime of civilizations as well as the assumed rate of colonization. For SETI-like studies, we believe that unbiased searches are needed considering both the possibilities that the next civilizations are nearby or potentially very far away.
费米悖论引发了各种各样的尝试来解释为什么迄今为止在地球和我们的太阳系中没有发现外星文明的证据。在这里,我们提出了这类文明发展的动力学模型,该模型解释了文明的自我毁灭、殖民化和天体物理破坏机制,包括伽马射线暴、Ia型和II型超新星以及超大质量黑洞的辐射。我们对这种过程的效率进行了保守估计,发现天体物理效应可以影响智能文明的发展,并使拥有这种文明的系统的数量变化大约2美元;如果反馈被增强,则可能更多。我们的研究结果表明,非平衡进化允许在极端情况下解决问题,如“稀土”或极端殖民化,包括文明分数在10^{-2}$和10^{-7}$之间的情况。这意味着与下一个这样的文明还有很长的距离,特别是在考虑持久性现象时。正如之前的研究一样,我们证实,主要的不确定性是由于文明的寿命以及假定的殖民化率。对于类似SETI的研究,我们认为需要考虑到下一个文明在附近或可能非常遥远的可能性,进行公正的搜索。
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引用次数: 1
If extraterrestrial intelligence exists, it is unable to recognize humans as intelligent beings – ERRATUM 如果外星智慧生物存在,它将无法将人类视为智慧生物
IF 1.7 4区 物理与天体物理 Q3 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.1017/s1473550422000210
K. Szocik, Rakhat Abylkasymova
In this paper we consider a scenario in which Carl Sagan ’ s Copernican principle is more likely than its negation. Thus, assuming that the existence of an extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) is reasonably likely, the paper considers the possibility of an ETI that is unable to recognize humans as intelligent beings. The paper presents the rationale for such an assumption. It also discusses the possible consequences for humanity of such a scenario. In this paper, we argue why the scenario under discussion is actually more positive for humanity than a scenario in which ETI would be capable of recognizing humanity as an intelligent species. We also point to feminist approaches to SETI issues exposing the role played by the speci fi c evolutionary and developmental context of potential ETI.
在本文中,我们考虑一种情况,在这种情况下,卡尔·萨根的哥白尼原理比它的否定更有可能。因此,假设地外智慧生物(ETI)的存在是合理可能的,本文考虑了无法识别人类为智慧生物的ETI的可能性。本文提出了这种假设的基本原理。它还讨论了这种情况对人类可能产生的后果。在本文中,我们论证了为什么讨论中的场景实际上比ETI能够识别人类作为智能物种的场景对人类更积极。我们还指出,女权主义的方法来解决SETI问题,揭示了潜在ETI的特定进化和发展背景所起的作用。
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引用次数: 1
Atmospheric entry of sub-millimetre-sized grains into Mars atmosphere: white soft mineral micrometeoroids 亚毫米大小的颗粒进入火星大气层:白色软矿物微流星体
IF 1.7 4区 物理与天体物理 Q3 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.1017/S1473550422000155
G. Micca Longo, S. Longo
Abstract In this work, we study the passage through the Martian atmosphere of micrometeorites with a white soft mineral (WSM) composition, which have been proposed as transporters of organic molecules in the solar system. The atmospheric entry model includes the dynamics of the atmospheric entry and the physico-chemical aspects of the thermal decomposition process. The results show that, due to the reduced entry speed, Mars may have been a promising collector of matter in this form. In particular, the chemical decomposition process is much more effective than in the case of the Earth's atmosphere in maintaining a moderate temperature of the micrometeorite during most of the entry process.
摘要在这项工作中,我们研究了具有白色软矿物(WSM)成分的微流星体穿过火星大气层的过程,这些微流星体被认为是太阳系中有机分子的转运体。大气进入模型包括大气进入的动力学和热分解过程的物理化学方面。结果表明,由于进入速度的降低,火星可能是一个很有前途的这种形式物质的收集器。特别是,在进入过程的大部分时间里,化学分解过程比地球大气层的情况更有效,可以保持微流星体的中温。
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引用次数: 1
Life detection in Martian returned samples: correlation between analytical techniques and biological signatures 火星返回样本中的生命探测:分析技术与生物特征之间的相关性
IF 1.7 4区 物理与天体物理 Q3 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Pub Date : 2022-05-24 DOI: 10.1017/S1473550422000106
A. Meneghin, J. Brucato, T. Fornaro, G. Poggiali
Abstract As soon as samples collected from Mars will be brought back to Earth, the samples will be placed inside a receiving facility to check for the presence of life. There is a large number of approaches that were proposed on the techniques to be used to investigate the presence of life and any biological risk in the returned samples. Another interesting approach was reported by Kminek in which suggestions were provided on how to organize the sample analysis sequence within the facility. Finally, another study suggested a long list of techniques capable of measuring biological signatures based on their general characteristics: global, morphological, mineralogical, organic, molecular and biochemical, isotopic analysis. Despite the effort of the cited studies, there is still the need of a critical approach to make an actual comparison between the techniques, with the aim to find a ranking. In this work, we focused on the construction of a correlation matrix with which to correlate biosignatures to analytical techniques. It is known that a number of techniques can detect biological signatures and, at the same time, each technique can be applied to multiple biological signatures. Using this method, it is possible to summarize all this information to be easily consulted, but also to define in a quantitative way how strong each correlation is.
从火星上采集的样本一旦被带回地球,这些样本就会被放置在一个接收设施中,以检查是否存在生命。关于用于调查返回样本中是否存在生命和是否存在任何生物风险的技术,提出了许多方法。Kminek报告了另一种有趣的方法,其中就如何在设施内组织样品分析序列提供了建议。最后,另一项研究提出了一长串能够根据其一般特征测量生物特征的技术:全局、形态学、矿物学、有机、分子和生化、同位素分析。尽管被引用的研究做出了努力,但仍然需要一种批判性的方法来对这些技术进行实际的比较,目的是找到一个排名。在这项工作中,我们专注于相关矩阵的构建,将生物特征与分析技术相关联。众所周知,许多技术可以检测生物特征,同时,每种技术都可以应用于多个生物特征。使用这种方法,可以总结所有这些信息以方便查阅,而且还可以定量地定义每种相关性的强度。
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引用次数: 1
Role of DNA repair pathways in the recovery of a dried, radioresistant cyanobacterium exposed to high-LET radiation: implications for the habitability of Mars DNA修复途径在暴露于高LET辐射的干燥、抗辐射蓝细菌恢复中的作用:对火星宜居性的影响
IF 1.7 4区 物理与天体物理 Q3 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Pub Date : 2022-04-21 DOI: 10.1017/S1473550422000131
Claudia Mosca, A. Napoli, Claudia Fagliarone, A. Fujimori, R. Moeller, D. Billi
Abstract If life ever appeared on Mars and if it did refuge into sub-superficial environments when surface conditions turned too hostile, then it should have been periodically revived from the frozen, dormant state in order to repair the accumulated damage and reset the survival clock to zero for the next dormant phase. Thus, unravelling how long Earth dormant microorganisms can cope with high-LET radiation mimicking long-term irradiation is fundamental to get insights into the long-term resilience of a dormant microbial life in the Martian subsurface over geological timescales that might have taken advantage of periodically clement conditions that allowed the repair of the accumulated DNA damage. The exposure of dried cells of the radioresistant cyanobacterium Chroococcidiopsis sp. CCMEE 029 to 2 kGy of heavy-ion radiation (Fe ions) did not significantly reduce its survival, although DNA damage was accumulated. Upon rehydration, DNA lesions were repaired as suggested by the over-expression of genes involved in the repair of double strand breaks (DSBs), oxidized bases and apurinic-apyrimidinic sites. Indeed, the monitoring of repair genes upon rehydration suggested a key role of the RecF homologous recombination in repairing DSBs. While the fact that out of the eight genes of the BER system, only one was up-regulated, suggested the absence of DNA lesions generally induced by UV radiation. In conclusion, the non-significantly reduced survival of dried Chroococcidiopsis exposed to 2 kGy of Fe-ion radiation further expanded our appreciation of the resilience of a putative dormant life in the Martian subsurface. Moreover, it is also relevant when searching life on Europa and Enceladus where the radiation environment might critically affect the long-term survival of dormant, frozen life forms.
摘要如果火星上曾经出现过生命,并且当表面条件变得过于恶劣时,它确实躲到了亚表层环境中,那么它应该定期从冻结的休眠状态中复活,以修复累积的损伤,并在下一个休眠阶段将生存时钟重置为零。因此,揭示地球休眠微生物能在多长时间内应对模拟长期辐射的高LET辐射,对于深入了解火星地下休眠微生物生命在地质时间尺度上的长期弹性至关重要,因为地质时间尺度可能利用了周期性的温和条件,从而修复了累积的DNA损伤。抗辐射蓝细菌Chroocccidiopsis sp.CCMEE 029的干细胞暴露于2kGy的重离子辐射(Fe离子)并没有显著降低其存活率,尽管DNA损伤已经积累。再水合后,DNA损伤得到修复,如参与修复双链断裂(DSBs)、氧化碱基和无嘌呤无嘧啶位点的基因过度表达所示。事实上,复水后对修复基因的监测表明RecF同源重组在修复DSBs中起着关键作用。在BER系统的八个基因中,只有一个基因上调,这表明不存在通常由紫外线辐射诱导的DNA损伤。总之,暴露在2kGy铁离子辐射下的干燥Chroocccidiopsis的存活率没有显著降低,这进一步扩大了我们对火星地下假定休眠生命的恢复力的认识。此外,在寻找木卫二和土卫二上的生命时,这一点也很重要,因为那里的辐射环境可能会严重影响休眠、冷冻生命形式的长期生存。
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引用次数: 4
Amino acid dipeptide formation induced by experimental irradiance of a solar flare power 太阳耀斑功率的实验辐照诱导氨基酸二肽的形成
IF 1.7 4区 物理与天体物理 Q3 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Pub Date : 2022-04-11 DOI: 10.1017/s1473550422000118
J. Mejsnar, V. Proks, P. Hezký, Marie Černá
The experimental study aimed to select the spectrometric results of the solar flare that meet the mathematical conditions for integration, to measure the power of this integrated flux, and to test the integrated power, whether it is able to form a peptide bond between two molecules of selected amino acids on the Earth's surface. Results show that the radiation power of the X17 solar flare scanned by the SOLSTICE and SIM spectrometers aboard the NASA SORCE spacecraft, when used for experimental irradiance of the same parameters, is sufficient to form methionine, alanine, glutamine and proline dipeptides in aqueous solution with pyrophosphate or carbonyl sulphide at laboratory temperature. The experiments, with their successful outcome, provide insight into the biological significance of the narrowband solar flare anchored in the broadband UV solar radiation.
这项实验研究旨在选择符合积分数学条件的太阳耀斑光谱结果,测量这种积分通量的功率,并测试积分功率,即它是否能够在地球表面的两个选定氨基酸分子之间形成肽键。结果表明,NASA SORCE航天器上的SOLSTICE和SIM光谱仪扫描的X17太阳耀斑的辐射功率,当用于相同参数的实验辐照度时,足以在实验室温度下与焦磷酸盐或硫化羰在水溶液中形成蛋氨酸、丙氨酸、谷氨酰胺和脯氨酸二肽。这些实验取得了成功,深入了解了宽带紫外线太阳辐射中窄带太阳耀斑的生物学意义。
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引用次数: 1
Where will they be: hidden implications of solutions to the Fermi paradox 它们将在哪里:费米悖论解的隐藏含义
IF 1.7 4区 物理与天体物理 Q3 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Pub Date : 2022-04-08 DOI: 10.1017/S147355042200012X
Niklas A. Döbler
Abstract Solutions to the Fermi paradox either deny the existence of extraterrestrials or offer alternative reasons to explain the non-occurrence of a first contact. While the latter, more optimistic approaches generally assume the existence of extraterrestrials, they simultaneously hint to limited future detectability. If solutions to the Fermi paradox are accepted as true, they must be evaluated in terms of how they affect the likelihood of success of future SETI efforts. Some solutions may lead to the so-called Fermi constraint: in order to explain why there has not been any contact so far, optimistic solutions to the Fermi paradox have to accept assumptions that, if the solution is assumed to be correct, indicate a very low probability of future contact. In other words: they are not here, and that is why they may never appear.
费米悖论的解决方案要么否认外星人的存在,要么提供其他理由来解释没有发生第一次接触。而后者,更乐观的方法通常假设外星人的存在,他们同时暗示有限的未来可探测性。如果费米悖论的解决方案被认为是正确的,那么必须根据它们如何影响未来SETI努力成功的可能性来评估它们。一些解可能会导致所谓的费米约束:为了解释为什么到目前为止还没有任何接触,费米悖论的乐观解必须接受这样的假设:如果假设解是正确的,则表明未来接触的概率非常低。换句话说:它们不在这里,这就是它们可能永远不会出现的原因。
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引用次数: 3
期刊
International Journal of Astrobiology
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