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2017 Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium (RAMS)最新文献

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The effectiveness of reliability programs and tools based on design maturity and complexity 基于设计成熟度和复杂性的可靠性方案和工具的有效性
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.1109/RAM.2017.7889658
J. Lucas, A. Thiraviam, Ahmed K Elshennawy, Abdulrahman Albar
Many modern companies view reliability as a critical consideration during design, but often fail in achieving the required level of reliability in their products. The reasons for failing to achieve a product line's required reliability are numerous, but it is clear that the lack of proper implementation of an effective reliability program is one of the main drivers for this lack of success. In working with a number of companies that produce products ranging from simple to complex and with a variety of maturities, it is clear that reliebility programs are not “one-size-fits-all”, and rather need to be tailored to a product's complexity and current life cycle maturity. This paper examines products at three different levels of complexity (Low, Medium, and High), and three different levels of maturity (Qualified, Deployed, and Field Proven). Data from product lines at a variety of combinations of these categories have been examined. Results of this analysis indicate that levels of reliability are highly correlated to complexity, with an increase in complexity resulting in a decrease in reliability. Additionally, product line reliability is also observed to increase with product line maturity. Neither of these results were unexpected, but the analysis also indicated that some reliability tools, specifically FMECAs and FRACAS implementation, were most effective in increasing reliability in all product complexity levels, whereas other tools, such as RBDA, were effective in some cases, but had a more limited effectiveness on less complex products.
许多现代公司将可靠性视为设计过程中的关键考虑因素,但往往无法在其产品中达到所需的可靠性水平。未能达到产品线所要求的可靠性的原因有很多,但很明显,缺乏有效的可靠性计划的适当实施是缺乏成功的主要驱动因素之一。在与许多生产从简单到复杂、成熟度各异的产品的公司合作时,很明显,可靠性程序不是“一刀切”的,而是需要根据产品的复杂性和当前生命周期的成熟度进行定制。本文在三个不同的复杂性级别(低、中、高)和三个不同的成熟度级别(合格、部署和现场验证)上检查产品。从这些类别的各种组合的产品线的数据进行了检查。分析结果表明,可靠性水平与复杂性高度相关,复杂性的增加导致可靠性的降低。此外,产品线的可靠性也随着产品线的成熟而增加。这些结果都不是出乎意料的,但分析也表明,一些可靠性工具,特别是FMECAs和FRACAS的实施,在提高所有产品复杂性水平的可靠性方面最有效,而其他工具,如RBDA,在某些情况下是有效的,但在不太复杂的产品上的有效性更有限。
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引用次数: 0
A single changepoint software reliability growth model with heterogeneous fault detection processes 具有异构故障检测过程的单变点软件可靠性增长模型
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.1109/RAM.2017.7889760
V. Nagaraju, L. Fiondella
Most software reliability growth models characterize the software process as a function of testing time. However, during the software testing process, the failure data is affected by additional factors such as testing strategy and environment, integration testing, and resource allocation. This will have a major impact on the fault detection process reflecting the effect of such factors at various stages of testing, which are known as changepoints. Recently, several researchers have proposed non-homogeneous Poisson process software reliability models with one or more changepoints to model the data well. However, one of the limitations of previous research is that only homogeneous combinations of failure distributions before and after changepoints are considered. However, in real data sets this is often not the case. This paper develops heterogeneous single changepoint models by considering different failure distributions before and after the changepoint and applies algorithms to maximize the likelihood of these models. Heterogeneous models are compared with existing homogeneous models using goodness-of-fit measures. The expectation conditional maximization algorithm identifies the maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters. Online changepoint analysis is also described. Experimental results suggest that heterogeneous changepoint models better characterize some failure data sets.
大多数软件可靠性增长模型将软件过程描述为测试时间的函数。然而,在软件测试过程中,故障数据受到其他因素的影响,例如测试策略和环境、集成测试和资源分配。这将对故障检测过程产生重大影响,反映这些因素在测试的各个阶段的影响,这些阶段被称为变更点。近年来,一些研究人员提出了具有一个或多个变化点的非齐次泊松过程软件可靠性模型来更好地建模数据。然而,以往研究的局限性之一是只考虑了变化点前后失效分布的齐次组合。然而,在真实的数据集中,情况往往不是这样。本文通过考虑变更点前后不同的失效分布,建立了异构单变更点模型,并应用算法使这些模型的似然性最大化。利用拟合优度度量将异质模型与现有的同质模型进行比较。期望条件最大化算法识别模型参数的最大似然估计。还描述了在线变更点分析。实验结果表明,异构变点模型能更好地表征某些故障数据集。
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引用次数: 4
Cost modeling for customer premises equipment 客户预置设备的成本建模
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.1109/RAM.2017.7889699
Ted Boone, P. Franklin
A cost model for customer premises equipment has been developed. This model enables pinpoint prioritization of operational and reliability improvement efforts.
为客户驻地设备制定了一个成本模型。该模型能够精确地确定操作和可靠性改进工作的优先级。
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引用次数: 1
Properly crediting diagnostics in safety instrumented functions for high demand processes 在高要求的过程中,正确地将诊断归功于安全仪表功能
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.1109/RAM.2017.7889648
J. Bukowski, W. Goble
According to certain safety standards [1, 2, 3], when assessing the safety performance of a safety instrumented function (SIF) operating in high demand mode, full credit can be given for the positive effects of SIF automatic self-diagnostics (ASD) provided the frequency of self-diagnostic execution is 100 times (100X) or more the demand rate on the SIF and the SIF is configured to convert dangerous failures into safe failures via an automatic shutdown. However, no credit may be given for the positive safety effects of SIF ASD if the frequency of ASD execution is less than 100X the demand rate. This paper shows that the 100X requirement is excessive and that significant positive safety effects accrue even when the ASD frequency is much smaller than the 100X stipulation. The theory, which provides reasonable justification for assigning some degree of partial diagnostic credit (PDC) for SIF ASD based on the ratio of ASD frequency to demand rate, is developed under two different assumptions: Scenario 1 which is extremely conservative and Scenario 2 which is realistic. It is shown that even under the conservative assumption, a frequency of ASD execution of as little as 2X the rate of demand on the SIF deserves at least 60% credit. Under the realistic assumption, the 2X frequency of ASD execution deserves at least 78% credit! Further, ASD execution frequencies of 10X deserve at least 90% credit under the conservative assumption and at least 95% credit under the realistic assumption. These findings suggest that a SIF operating in high demand mode which currently is not receiving credit for its ASD may be reassessed at a lower PDF(t)/hr (a safety metric for SIF in high demand mode) and perhaps a higher safety integrity level (SIL). Furthermore, manufacturers that may have been reluctant to include ASD in equipment used in SIF construction because of the likelihood that the ASD execution frequency would not qualify for PDC in a SIL assessment, may wish to reconsider given that reasonable justification for assigning at least some PDC for the positive effects of ASD is now possible.
根据一定的安全标准[1,2,3],在评估在高需求模式下运行的安全仪表功能(SIF)的安全性能时,如果自诊断执行频率是SIF需求率的100倍(100X)或更多,并且SIF配置为通过自动关闭将危险故障转换为安全故障,则SIF自动自诊断(ASD)的积极影响可以完全归功于SIF。然而,如果执行ASD的频率低于需求率的100倍,则SIF ASD的积极安全效果可能不会得到认可。本文表明,100X的要求过高,即使ASD频率远低于100X的规定,也会产生显著的积极安全效应。该理论为基于ASD频率与需求率的比率为SIF ASD分配一定程度的部分诊断信用(PDC)提供了合理的理由,该理论是在两个不同的假设下发展起来的:场景1是极端保守的,场景2是现实的。结果表明,即使在保守的假设下,ASD执行的频率只有SIF需求率的2倍,至少应该得到60%的信用。在现实的假设下,ASD执行的2倍频率至少值得78%的功劳!此外,10倍的ASD执行频率在保守假设下至少值得90%的学分,在现实假设下至少值得95%的学分。这些发现表明,在高需求模式下运行的SIF目前没有获得ASD的积分,可以在较低的PDF(t)/小时(高需求模式下SIF的安全度量)和更高的安全完整性水平(SIL)下重新评估。此外,由于ASD执行频率可能不符合SIL评估中PDC的标准,制造商可能不愿意将ASD纳入SIF构建设备中,考虑到现在有可能为ASD的积极影响分配至少一些PDC的合理理由,他们可能希望重新考虑。
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引用次数: 3
Planning reliability demonstration test with performance requirements 根据性能要求规划可靠性论证试验
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.1109/RAM.2017.7889733
Wendai Wang
Carefully planning reliability testing is necessary for success of a product development. Sample size determination is an important step in test planning. One of most common questions any reliability engineer gets asked is “how many units do we need to test?” Of course the answer depends on a number of factors and information in hand. The design of reliability demonstration testing (RDT) has been widely studied by many researchers. Most planning methods are based on the time-to-failure properties of product under test, such as the Binomial equation, the Chi-Squared formula, and etc. However, quite often, reliability test requirements are defined by certain performance characteristic(s), or physical characteristic(s), or quality characteristic(s). Very few works have been published to plan a reliability test with performance measurements directly. Some works on degradation measurements analysis, including degradation test plan for Wiener degradation processes, have been carried out for maintenance optimization purpose. This paper develops a test planning method for reliability demonstration test when the reliability test requirement is constructed with its performance or degradation measurements. A simple formula for sample size determination is provided in the paper, and a couple of case studies will be presented to help reliability practitioners to plan the reliability testing using the proposed method.
仔细规划可靠性测试是产品开发成功的必要条件。样本大小的确定是测试计划中的一个重要步骤。可靠性工程师最常被问到的问题之一是“我们需要测试多少个单元?”当然,答案取决于许多因素和手头的信息。可靠性验证试验(RDT)的设计已被许多研究者广泛研究。大多数计划方法是基于被测产品的失效时间特性,如二项式方程、卡方公式等。然而,通常情况下,可靠性测试需求是由某些性能特性、物理特性或质量特性定义的。很少有著作直接计划使用性能测量的可靠性测试。为了维护优化,开展了一些退化测量分析工作,包括维纳降解过程的退化试验计划。本文提出了一种基于性能或退化测量来构建可靠性验证试验需求的可靠性验证试验计划方法。本文提供了一个简单的样本量确定公式,并将介绍几个案例研究,以帮助可靠性从业者使用所提出的方法计划可靠性测试。
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引用次数: 3
Risk management of a high pressured test cartridge using sensitivity testing 使用灵敏度试验的高压试验药筒的风险管理
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.1109/RAM.2017.7889703
C. Drake, D. Ray
Using a static Sensitivity Test approach, and analyzing the collected data using Binary and Ordinal Logistic Regression, the risk of potentially falsely inducing weapon damage, either in a latent or fully realized manner, was effectively managed and mitigated while simultaneously providing the Army with a more adequate proof cartridge for 5.56mm weapons including the M4 carbine, M16 rifle, and M249 Squad Automatic Weapon. By incorporating error propagation through Monte Carlo simulation, robust tolerances were derived using the Binary Logistic Regression model to estimate the pressure value which corresponded to a target probability of encountering a critical defect threshold of 0.000001, or 1 in a million.
采用静态灵敏度测试方法,并使用二进制和有序逻辑回归分析收集的数据,有效地管理和减轻了潜在或完全实现的错误诱导武器损伤的风险,同时为陆军提供了更充分的5.56毫米武器弹药,包括M4卡宾枪,M16步枪和M249班用自动武器。通过蒙特卡罗模拟结合误差传播,使用二元逻辑回归模型推导出鲁棒公差,以估计与遇到临界缺陷阈值0.000001或百万分之一的目标概率相对应的压力值。
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引用次数: 1
Life data analysis with applications to aircraft modeling 寿命数据分析在飞机建模中的应用
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.1109/RAM.2017.7889690
J. Pulido, J. Klinger, W. Hill
As demand for highly reliable complex systems increases, engineers are being forced to consider the risk implications of design decisions earlier in the conceptual phase of projects and with greater accuracy. Standard probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) usually employed to verify that a product meets requirements are too resource intensive and too slow to keep up with the speed at which the design is maturing; while classical qualitative methods do not provide the level of detail and granularity required by the designers to make high-quality risk informed decisions. Every company is dependent on some type of asset that keeps the business in business — be it a computer, a centrifuge or a megawatt transformer. In a large enterprise, reducing costs related to asset maintenance, repair and ultimate replacement is at the top of management concerns [1]. Downtime in any network, manufacturing or computer system ultimately results not only in high repair costs, but in customer dissatisfaction and lower potential sales. In response to these concerns, this paper presents a methodology for using Life Data Analysis (LDA) techniques for evaluating new product innovation and projecting product performance due to several failure modes. The paper presents an application for the airline industry where the technique was used in determining the right failure mode as well as enable the program to compare improvements to the fleet.
随着对高度可靠的复杂系统需求的增加,工程师们被迫在项目的概念阶段更早地考虑设计决策的风险含义,并且更加准确。通常用于验证产品是否满足要求的标准概率风险评估(PRA)过于资源密集,速度太慢,无法跟上设计成熟的速度;而经典的定性方法并不能提供设计师做出高质量风险决策所需的细节和粒度。每家公司都依赖某种资产来维持业务——无论是计算机、离心机还是兆瓦级变压器。在大型企业中,降低与资产维护、维修和最终更换相关的成本是管理层最关心的问题。任何网络、制造或计算机系统的停机时间最终不仅会导致高昂的维修成本,还会导致客户不满和潜在销售额下降。针对这些问题,本文提出了一种使用寿命数据分析(LDA)技术来评估新产品创新和由于几种失效模式而预测产品性能的方法。本文介绍了航空业的应用,其中该技术用于确定正确的故障模式,并使该程序能够与机队进行比较改进。
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引用次数: 2
Effective application of ignition risk safety analysis 引燃危险安全分析的有效应用
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.1109/RAM.2017.7889770
Rodney Benson, Darryl W. Kellner
Aircraft manufacturers and their suppliers are required by the Federal Aviation Administration to perform special safety analyses of equipment installed within the fuel tank zone of aircraft. These analyses are required to verify the design is sufficiently safe regarding the prevention of ignition of fuel vapors during operations. The following provides guidance on a method that has successfully been used to document the results of a safety analysis performed to satisfy these requirements and complies with industry guidance. A block diagram of the safety analysis process that includes data flow from other sources is provided and explained. A simplified example is provided to walk through the steps performed during the analysis process.
美国联邦航空管理局要求飞机制造商及其供应商对安装在飞机油箱区域内的设备进行特殊的安全分析。需要进行这些分析,以验证在操作过程中防止燃料蒸气着火的设计是否足够安全。以下提供了一种方法的指导,该方法已成功地用于记录安全分析的结果,以满足这些要求并符合行业指南。提供并解释了安全分析过程的框图,其中包括来自其他来源的数据流。本文提供了一个简化的示例来介绍在分析过程中执行的步骤。
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引用次数: 0
Comprehensive cost oriented predictive maintenance based on mission reliability for a manufacturing system 基于任务可靠性的制造系统综合成本预测维护
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.1109/RAM.2017.7889713
C. Gu, Yihai He, Xiao Han, M. Xie
In this paper, a comprehensive cost oriented dynamic predictive maintenance policy based on mission reliability state is developed for a multi-state single-machine manufacturing system. In view of the inherent polymorphism of manufacturing systems (i.e., dynamic production scheduling and performance degradation), the connotation of mission reliability of equipment is defined and modeled based on the processing capacity distribution which integrates multiple fault data. Further, the relationship between mission reliability and performance of equipment is established by using the unavailability as the intermediary. The optimal predictive maintenance policy, the best mission reliability threshold for performing predictive maintenance action, is obtained by minimizing the comprehensive cost which includes processing capacity loss, corrective maintenance cost, predictive maintenance cost and indirect loss caused by failing to meet due dates over the planning period. This paper will also evaluate a manufacturing system of the cylinder head of an automotive engine as a case study to illustrate the effectiveness and advantages of the proposed method. The final result shows that a more significant economic benefit can be achieved by the proposed approach, which considers the mission reliability and comprehensive cost relative to the periodic preventive maintenance policy.
针对多状态单机制造系统,提出了一种基于任务可靠性状态的综合成本动态预测维修策略。针对制造系统固有的多态性(即动态生产调度和性能退化),基于集成多故障数据的处理能力分布,定义了设备任务可靠性的内涵,并对其进行建模。进一步,以不可用性为中介,建立了任务可靠性与装备性能之间的关系。通过使处理能力损失、纠正性维护成本、预测性维护成本和计划期未按期造成的间接损失等综合成本最小化,得到最优的预测性维护策略,即执行预测性维护动作的最佳任务可靠性阈值。本文还将评估汽车发动机缸盖的制造系统作为一个案例研究,以说明所提出的方法的有效性和优点。结果表明,与定期预防性维修策略相比,该方法兼顾了任务可靠性和综合成本,可获得更显著的经济效益。
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引用次数: 8
Reliability analysis of igniters under thermal mechanical loadings 热机械载荷下点火器可靠性分析
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.1109/RAM.2017.7889744
J. Pulido, M. Bride, M. Fonseca
Environmental and Operational Stress Testing is the most common approach to precipitating structure latent defects before the manufacturing of products. This testing consists of applying environmentally induced stresses to the product. Typically, these environmental stresses for mechanical structural automotive components consist of vibration loading based on road input and/or self-induced vibration with cycling temperatures between a high and low extreme. Many components in most fields of engineering are subjected to fatigue at elevated temperatures. High — temperature fatigue is mainly a concern at temperatures above 30 or 40 percent of the absolute melting temperature. Since some of these components are costly and safety-critical, it is understandable that there is a significant interest in proper characterization of fatigue behavior at high temperatures. In most cases strain life characteristic is not known for a given application and or a given material. To further complicate matters, the component application can be in an environment where more than one failure mode due to the application type can be observed. This paper presents a practical testing methodology used to determine the product's operational life given high temperature operational application and the results are compared with field observations.
环境和操作压力测试是在产品制造之前沉淀结构潜在缺陷的最常用方法。这种测试包括对产品施加环境诱发的应力。通常,汽车机械结构部件的这些环境应力包括基于道路输入的振动载荷和/或在高和低极端之间循环温度的自激振动。在大多数工程领域中,许多部件在高温下都会遭受疲劳。高温疲劳主要是在温度高于绝对熔化温度的30%或40%时引起的。由于其中一些部件价格昂贵且对安全性至关重要,因此可以理解,人们对高温下疲劳行为的适当表征非常感兴趣。在大多数情况下,对于给定的应用和/或给定的材料,应变寿命特性是未知的。使问题进一步复杂化的是,组件应用程序可能处于一个环境中,其中可以观察到由于应用程序类型而导致的多个故障模式。本文提出了一种实用的测试方法,用于确定产品在高温下的使用寿命,并将结果与现场观察结果进行了比较。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
2017 Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium (RAMS)
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