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Examining key macroeconomic determinants of serviced apartments price index: the case of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia 考察服务式公寓价格指数的主要宏观经济决定因素:以马来西亚吉隆坡为例
IF 1.7 Q3 URBAN STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-01-03 DOI: 10.1108/ijhma-10-2022-0162
C. Cheng, Gabriel Hoh Teck Ling
PurposeIncreasing overhang of serviced apartments poses a serious concern to the national property market. This study aims to examine the impacts of macroeconomic determinants, namely, gross domestic product (GDP), consumer confidence index (CF), existing stocks (ES), incoming supply (IS) and completed project (CP) on serviced apartment price changes.Design/methodology/approachTo achieve more accurate, quality price changes, a serviced apartment price index (SAPI) was constructed through a self-developed hedonic price index model. This study has collected 1,567 transaction data in Kuala Lumpur, covering 2009Q1–2018Q4 for price index construction and data were analysed using the vector autoregressive model, the vector error correction model and the fully modified ordinary least squares (OLS) (FMOLS).FindingsResults of the regression model show that only GDP, ES and IS were significantly associated with SAPI, with an R2 of 0.7, where both ES and IS have inverse relationships with SAPI. More precisely, it is predicted that the price of serviced apartments will be reduced by 0.56% and 0.21% for every 1% increase in ES and IS, respectively.Practical implicationsTherefore, government monitoring of serviced apartments’ future supply is crucial by enforcing land use-planning regulations via stricter development approval of serviced apartments to safeguard and achieve more stable property prices.Originality/valueBy adopting an innovative approach to estimating the response of price change to supply and demand in a situation where there is no price indicator for serviced apartments, the study addresses the knowledge gap, especially in terms of understanding what are the key determinants of, and to what extent they influence, the SAPI.
目的越来越多的服务式公寓对全国房地产市场构成了严重关切。本研究旨在检验宏观经济决定因素,即国内生产总值(GDP)、消费者信心指数(CF)、现有库存(ES)、供应量(IS)和完工项目(CP)对服务式公寓价格变化的影响。设计/方法/方法为了实现更准确、更优质的价格变化,通过自行开发的特征价格指数模型构建了服务式公寓价格指数(SAPI)。本研究收集了吉隆坡2009年第一季度至2018年第四季度的1567个交易数据,用于价格指数构建,并使用向量自回归模型、向量误差校正模型和完全修正的最小二乘法(OLS)对数据进行了分析。回归模型的结果显示,只有GDP、ES和IS与SAPI显著相关,R2为0.7,其中ES和IS都与SAPI呈反比。更准确地说,据预测,ES和is每上涨1%,服务式公寓的价格将分别下降0.56%和0.21%。实践意义因此,政府对服务式公寓未来供应的监控至关重要,通过更严格的服务式公寓开发审批来执行土地使用规划法规,以保障和实现更稳定的房地产价格。独创性/价值通过采用创新的方法来估计在没有服务式公寓价格指标的情况下价格变化对供需的反应,该研究解决了知识差距,特别是在理解SAPI的关键决定因素以及它们对SAPI的影响程度方面。
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引用次数: 1
Editorial: Introduction from the Editor – IJHMA Vol. 16 No. 1 编辑:编辑介绍- IJHMA第16卷第1期
IF 1.7 Q3 URBAN STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-01-02 DOI: 10.1108/ijhma-01-2023-163
R. Reed
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引用次数: 0
House price dynamics under lower leverage: the case of metropolitan cities in India 低杠杆下的房价动态:以印度大城市为例
IF 1.7 Q3 URBAN STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-12-29 DOI: 10.1108/ijhma-10-2022-0161
Sudhanshu Sekhar Pani
PurposeThis paper aims to examine the dynamics of house prices in metropolitan cities in an emerging economy. The purpose of this study is to characterise the house price dynamics and the spatial heterogeneity in the dynamics.Design/methodology/approachThe author explores spatial heterogeneity in house price dynamics, using data for 35 Indian cities with a million-plus population. The research methodology uses panel econometrics allowing for spatial heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependence and non-stationary data. The author tests for spatial differences and analyses the income elasticity of prices, the role of construction costs and lending to the real estate industry by commercial banks.FindingsLong-term fundamentals drive the Indian housing markets, where wealth parameters are stronger than supply-side parameters such as construction costs or availability of financing for housing projects. The long-term elasticity of house prices to aggregate household deposits (wealth proxy) varies considerably across cities. However, the elasticity estimated at 0.39 is low. The highest coefficient is for Ludhiana (1.14), followed by Bhubaneswar (0.78). The short-term dynamics are robust and show spatial heterogeneity. Short-term momentum (lagged housing price changes) has a parameter value of 0.307. The momentum factor is the crucial dynamic in the short term. The second driver, the reversion rate to long-term equilibrium (estimated at −0.18), is higher than rates reported from developed markets.Research limitations/implicationsThis research applies to markets that require some home equity contributions from buyers of housing services.Practical implicationsStakeholders can characterise stable housing markets based on long-term fundamental value and short-run house price dynamics. Because stable housing markets benefit all stakeholders, weak or non-existent mean reversion dynamics may prompt the intervention of policymakers. The role of urban planners, and local and regional governance, is essential to remove the bottlenecks from the demand side or supply side factors that can lead to runaway prices.Originality/valueExisting literature is concerned about the risk of a housing bubble due to relaxed credit norms. To prevent housing market bubbles, some regulators require higher contributions from home buyers in the form of equity. The dynamics of house prices in markets with higher owner equity requirements vary from high-leverage markets. The influence of wealth effects is examined using novel data sets. This research, documents in an emerging market context, the observations cited in low-leverage developed markets such as Germany and Japan.
本文旨在研究新兴经济体中大城市的房价动态。本研究的目的是表征房价动态及其空间异质性。设计/方法/方法作者利用印度35个百万以上人口城市的数据,探讨了房价动态的空间异质性。研究方法采用面板计量经济学,允许空间异质性,横截面依赖性和非平稳数据。通过空间差异检验,分析了房价的收入弹性、建筑成本的作用以及商业银行对房地产业的贷款。长期基本面因素驱动着印度房地产市场,在印度,财富参数强于建筑成本或住房项目融资可获得性等供给侧参数。房价对家庭总存款(财富代理)的长期弹性在不同城市差别很大。但是,在0.39估计的弹性较低。系数最高的是卢迪亚纳(1.14),其次是布巴内斯瓦尔(0.78)。短期动态稳定且具有空间异质性。短期动量(滞后房价变化)的参数值为0.307。动量因素是短期内的关键动力。第二个驱动因素是长期均衡的回复率(估计为- 0.18),高于发达市场报告的比率。研究的局限性/启示本研究适用于需要住房服务买家提供一些房屋净值贡献的市场。实际意义利益相关者可以根据长期基本价值和短期房价动态来描述稳定的房地产市场。由于稳定的房地产市场有利于所有利益相关者,弱或不存在的均值回归动态可能促使政策制定者进行干预。城市规划者以及地方和区域治理的作用,对于消除可能导致价格失控的需求侧或供给侧因素的瓶颈至关重要。原创性/价值现有文献关注的是宽松的信贷规范带来的房地产泡沫风险。为了防止房地产市场出现泡沫,一些监管机构要求购房者以股权的形式缴纳更高的保证金。在业主权益要求较高的市场中,房价的动态变化与高杠杆市场不同。财富效应的影响是用新的数据集来检验的。这项研究以新兴市场为背景,引用了德国和日本等低杠杆发达市场的观察结果。
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引用次数: 0
Elderly condominium attributes that enhance resident satisfaction and word of mouth: evidence from Thailand 提高居民满意度和口碑的老年公寓属性:来自泰国的证据
IF 1.7 Q3 URBAN STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-12-22 DOI: 10.1108/ijhma-09-2022-0137
Kanokwan Pimchan, C. Darawong
PurposeThis study aims to examine the influence of condominium attributes on resident satisfaction and word of mouth from the perspectives of the elderly in Thailand.Design/methodology/approachData were collected from 338 elderly residents through a questionnaire survey and analysed by using descriptive statistics and structural equation modelling procedures.FindingsThe results showed that the strongest predictor of resident satisfaction was design functionality, followed by social environment, safety and security and service quality. In addition, the strongest predictor of word of mouth was safety and security, followed by design functionality, proximity, service quality and social environment.Research limitations/implicationsThe data were drawn at the level of the overall characteristics of elderly residents. People may be different in terms of their demographic characters such as gender, age, and user experience.Practical implicationsThe study suggests that condominium developers and designers should pay attention to design functionality both physically and mentally such as suitable materials, lighting and common areas. Moreover, the developers should focus on the proximity of the nearest hospitals, safety and security measures, well-trained security personnel and social activity arrangement.Originality/valueElderly condominium markets are increasingly growing as a result of the ageing society in Thailand. However, very few empirical studies investigate condominium attributes that affect resident satisfaction and word of mouth provided by real estate developers. The paper aims to determine driving factors that enhance the better well-being of elderly residents.
目的本研究旨在从泰国老年人的角度,探讨公寓属性对居民满意度和口碑的影响。设计/方法/方法以问卷调查方式收集338名长者的资料,并运用描述性统计及结构方程模型分析。结果显示,设计功能对居民满意度的影响最大,其次是社会环境、安全保障和服务质量。此外,最能预测口碑的因素是安全性,其次是设计功能、邻近性、服务质量和社会环境。研究局限/启示本研究的数据是在老年居民的整体特征水平上抽取的。人们在人口统计学特征(如性别、年龄和用户体验)方面可能有所不同。实际意义该研究表明,公寓开发商和设计师应该注意设计的物理和精神上的功能,如合适的材料、照明和公共区域。此外,开发商应注重就近医院、安全和保安措施、训练有素的保安人员和社会活动安排。创意/价值由于泰国社会的老龄化,老年公寓市场日益增长。然而,很少有实证研究调查公寓属性,影响居民满意度和口碑的房地产开发商提供。本文旨在确定提高老年居民更好的幸福感的驱动因素。
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引用次数: 0
Network analysis of comovements among newly-built residential house price indices of seventy Chinese cities 中国70个城市新建住宅价格指数变动的网络分析
IF 1.7 Q3 URBAN STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-12-19 DOI: 10.1108/ijhma-09-2022-0134
Xiaojie Xu, Yun Zhang
PurposeUnderstandings of house prices and their interrelationships have undoubtedly drawn a great amount of attention from various market participants. This study aims to investigate the monthly newly-built residential house price indices of seventy Chinese cities during a 10-year period spanning January 2011–December 2020 for understandings of issues related to their interdependence and synchronizations.Design/methodology/approachAnalysis here is facilitated through network analysis together with topological and hierarchical characterizations of price comovements.FindingsThis study determines eight sectoral groups of cities whose house price indices are directly connected and the price synchronization within each group is higher than that at the national level, although each shows rather idiosyncratic patterns. Degrees of house price comovements are generally lower starting from 2018 at the national level and for the eight sectoral groups. Similarly, this study finds that the synchronization intensity associated with the house price index of each city generally switches to a lower level starting from early 2019.Originality/valueResults here should be of use to policy design and analysis aiming at housing market evaluations and monitoring.
目的对房价及其相互关系的理解无疑引起了各种市场参与者的极大关注。本研究旨在调查2011年1月至2020年12月10年期间中国70个城市的月度新建住宅价格指数,以了解其相互依存和同步的相关问题。这里的设计/方法/方法通过网络分析以及价格变动的拓扑和层次特征来促进分析。发现这项研究确定了房价指数直接相关的八个部门城市群,每个城市群内的价格同步性高于全国水平,尽管每个城市都表现出相当独特的模式。从2018年开始,全国和八个部门群体的房价联动程度普遍较低。同样,本研究发现,从2019年初开始,每个城市与房价指数相关的同步强度通常会切换到较低的水平。这里的原始性/价值结果应该有助于针对住房市场评估和监测的政策设计和分析。
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引用次数: 10
Predictors of home insurance purchase: the homeowners’ knowledge, perceived benefits and perceived vulnerability towards disaster losses 房屋保险购买的预测因素:房主的知识、感知的利益和感知的灾害损失脆弱性
IF 1.7 Q3 URBAN STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-12-15 DOI: 10.1108/ijhma-08-2022-0127
Tanuj Mathur, U. Paul
PurposeHome insurance is widely recognised as a tool for mitigating economic risk associated with natural disasters. This study aims to analyse the influence of homeowners’ home insurance knowledge (both objective and subjective types), perceived benefits (PB) and perceived vulnerability towards disaster loss (PVUL) on their intention to purchase (ITP).Design/methodology/approachThis research makes use of survey data collected from 394 respondents (the homeowners) residing in various parts of India. The structural equation modelling is used to verify 11 hypotheses proposed in the study.FindingsThe findings indicate that both objective knowledge (OK) and subjective knowledge (SK) of home insurance have significant influence on homeowners’ benefit perception and PVUL. The homeowners’ PB of home insurance negatively affect PVUL. The OK of home insurance has a stronger influence on homeowners’ ITP home insurance than SK while the homeowners benefit perceptions and PVUL significantly affects homeowners’ ITP home insurance. These findings confirms that if homeowners are knowledgeable about home insurance, they perceive the plans as more beneficial and feel less vulnerable about catastrophic events, resulting in positive intentions towards purchasing them.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first comprehensive research that assesses the Indian homeowners’ knowledge, PB and PVUL in influencing their ITP home insurance. The finding of this paper will assist both public and private insurance companies in India and similar markets in designing and implementing effective strategies to sell home insurance policies.
目的家庭保险被广泛认为是一种减轻与自然灾害相关的经济风险的工具。本研究旨在分析房主的住房保险知识(包括客观和主观类型)、感知收益(PB)和感知灾害损失脆弱性(PVUL)对其购买意愿(ITP)的影响。设计/方法/方法这项研究利用了从居住在印度各地的394名受访者(房主)收集的调查数据。结构方程模型用于验证研究中提出的11个假设。研究结果表明,住房保险的客观知识(OK)和主观知识(SK)对房主的利益感知和PVUL都有显著影响。房主的住房保险PB对PVUL产生负面影响。与SK相比,家庭保险的OK对房主的ITP家庭保险有更强的影响,而房主的福利观念和PVUL显著影响房主的ITP住房保险。这些发现证实,如果房主了解住房保险,他们会认为这些计划更有益,对灾难性事件也不那么脆弱,从而产生购买这些计划的积极意愿。独创性/价值据作者所知,这是第一项全面的研究,评估了印度房主在影响ITP住房保险方面的知识、PB和PVUL。本文的发现将有助于印度和类似市场的公共和私人保险公司设计和实施有效的策略来销售家庭保险单。
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引用次数: 0
Oil prices and gold prices on housing market in China: novel findings from the bootstrap approach 石油价格和黄金价格对中国房地产市场的影响:自举方法的新发现
IF 1.7 Q3 URBAN STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-12-15 DOI: 10.1108/ijhma-09-2022-0132
Mumtaz Ali, A. Samour, Foday Joof, Turgut Tursoy
PurposeThis study aims to assess how real income, oil prices and gold prices affect housing prices in China from 2010 to 2021.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses a novel bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) testing to empirically analyze the short and long links among the tested variables.FindingsThe ARDL estimations demonstrate a positive impact of oil price shocks and real income on housing market prices in both the phrases of the short and long run. Furthermore, the results reveal that gold price shocks negatively affect housing prices both in the short and long run. The result can be attributed to China’s housing market and advanced infrastructure, resulting in a drop in housing prices as gold prices increase. Additionally, the prediction of housing market prices will provide a base and direction for housing market investors to forecast housing prices and avoid losses.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt to analyze the effect of gold price shocks on housing market prices in China.
本研究旨在评估2010 - 2021年中国实际收入、石油价格和黄金价格对房价的影响。设计/方法/方法本研究采用一种新颖的自举自回归分布滞后(ARDL)检验来实证分析被测变量之间的长短联系。研究结果表明,无论是在短期还是长期,石油价格冲击和实际收入对住房市场价格都有积极影响。此外,研究结果表明,黄金价格冲击在短期和长期都对房价产生负向影响。这一结果可以归因于中国的房地产市场和先进的基础设施,导致金价上涨,房价下跌。此外,对住房市场价格的预测将为住房市场投资者预测房价,避免损失提供依据和方向。原创性/价值据作者所知,这是第一次尝试分析黄金价格冲击对中国房地产市场价格的影响。
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引用次数: 2
Development risk and unit size within the UK property market 英国房地产市场的开发风险和单位规模
IF 1.7 Q3 URBAN STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-12-14 DOI: 10.1108/ijhma-09-2022-0142
Cassandra Caitlin Moore
PurposeThis paper aims to explore the relationship between market pricing and design quality within the development industry. Currently, there is a lack of research that examines real estate at the property level. Development quality is widely believed to have diminished over the past decades, while many investors seem uninterested in the design process. The study aims to address these issues through a pricing model that integrates design attributes. It is hoped that empirical findings will invite broader stakeholder interest in the design process.Design/methodology/approachThe research establishes a framework for assessing spatial compliance across residential developments within London. Compliance is assessed across ten boroughs, with technical space guidelines used as a proxy for design quality. Transaction prices and spatial assessments are aligned within a hedonic pricing model. Empirical findings are used to establish whether undermining spatial standards presents a significant development risk.FindingsFindings suggest a relationship between sale time and unit size, with “compliant” units typically transacting earlier than “non-compliant” units. Almost half of the 1,600 apartments surveyed appear to undermine technical guidelines.Research limitations/implicationsIt is suggested that an array of design attributes be explored that extend beyond unit size. Additionally, future studies may consider the long-term implications of design quality via secondary transaction prices.Practical implicationsPractical implications include the development of a more scientific approach to design valuation. This may enhance the position of product design management within the development industry and architectural services.Social implicationsSocial implications may include improvement in residential design.Originality/valueAn innovative approach combines a thorough understanding of both design and economic principles.
本文旨在探讨开发行业中市场定价与设计质量之间的关系。目前,缺乏从房地产层面对房地产进行考察的研究。人们普遍认为,在过去几十年里,开发质量有所下降,而许多投资者似乎对设计过程不感兴趣。本研究旨在通过整合设计属性的定价模型来解决这些问题。希望实证研究结果能在设计过程中引起更广泛的利益相关者的兴趣。设计/方法/方法该研究建立了一个框架,用于评估伦敦住宅开发项目的空间合规性。合规性在十个行政区进行评估,技术空间指南被用作设计质量的代理。交易价格和空间评估在享乐定价模型中保持一致。实证结果表明,破坏空间标准是否会带来重大的发展风险。研究结果表明,销售时间与单位大小之间存在关系,“合规”单位通常比“不合规”单位更早交易。在接受调查的1600套公寓中,几乎有一半似乎违反了技术准则。研究局限/启示建议探索超出单位尺寸的一系列设计属性。此外,未来的研究可能会通过二级交易价格考虑设计质量的长期影响。实际意义实际意义包括发展一种更科学的设计评估方法。这可能会提高产品设计管理在开发行业和建筑服务中的地位。社会影响社会影响可能包括住宅设计的改善。创意/价值一个创新的方法结合了对设计和经济原则的透彻理解。
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引用次数: 0
Spatial variation of the determinants affecting urban land value in Thiruvananthapuram, India 印度蒂鲁凡得琅邦城市土地价值影响因素的空间变异
IF 1.7 Q3 URBAN STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-12-08 DOI: 10.1108/ijhma-09-2022-0135
B. Binoy, M. Naseer, P. P. Anil Kumar
PurposeLand value varies at a micro level depending on the location’s economic, geographical and political determinants. The purpose of this study is to present a comprehensive assessment of the determinants affecting land value in the Indian city of Thiruvananthapuram in the state of Kerala.Design/methodology/approachThe global influence of the identified 20 explanatory variables on land value is measured using the traditional hedonic price modeling approach. The localized spatial variations of the influencing parameters are examined using the non-parametric regression method, geographically weighted regression. This study used advertised land value prices collected from Web sources and screened through field surveys.FindingsGlobal regression results indicate that access to transportation facilities, commercial establishments, crime sources, wetland classification and disaster history has the strongest influence on land value in the study area. Local regression results demonstrate that the factors influencing land value are not stationary in the study area. Most variables have a different influence in Kazhakootam and the residential areas than in the central business district region.Originality/valueThis study confirms findings from previous studies and provides additional evidence in the spatial dynamics of land value creation. It is to be noted that advanced modeling approaches used in the research have not received much attention in Indian property valuation studies. The outcomes of this study have important implications for the property value fixation of urban Kerala. The regional variation of land value within an urban agglomeration shows the need for a localized method for land value calculation.
目的和价值在微观层面上取决于地点的经济、地理和政治决定因素。本研究的目的是全面评估影响喀拉拉邦印度蒂鲁凡南塔普兰市土地价值的决定因素。设计/方法/方法使用传统的享乐价格建模方法测量确定的20个解释变量对土地价值的全球影响。采用非参数回归方法,即地理加权回归,考察了影响参数的局部空间变化。这项研究使用了从网上收集的广告土地价值价格,并通过实地调查筛选。全球回归结果表明,交通设施、商业场所、犯罪来源、湿地分类和灾害历史对研究区土地价值的影响最大。局部回归结果表明,影响土地价值的因素在研究区并不是平稳的。大多数变量对哈萨克库塔姆和居民区的影响不同于对中央商务区的影响。原创性/价值本研究证实了以往的研究结果,并为土地价值创造的空间动态提供了额外的证据。值得注意的是,研究中使用的先进建模方法在印度房地产估值研究中并未受到太多关注。本研究结果对喀拉拉邦城市物业价值固定具有重要意义。城市群内土地价值的区域差异表明,需要一种局部化的土地价值计算方法。
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引用次数: 0
Determinants of millennials’ acceptance towards tawarruq home financing in Sandakan, Sabah, Malaysia 马来西亚沙巴州山打根千禧一代接受tavarruq住房融资的决定因素
IF 1.7 Q3 URBAN STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-12-07 DOI: 10.1108/ijhma-05-2022-0067
Faizah Panggi, H. Amin, I. Shaikh
PurposeThe purpose of this study was to investigate the factors that influence the millennials’ intention to choose tawarruq home financing in Sandakan, Sabah, Malaysia.Design/methodology/approachThe primary data were gathered via the questionnaire survey administered among Islamic banking customers in Sandakan, Sabah. Data obtained were analysed via multiple regression analysis using the software, Statistical Package for Social Sciences.FindingsThis study found that attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioural control, religiosity and knowledge in muamalat had a positive significant relationship towards millennials’ intention to choose tawarruq home financing in Sandakan, Sabah.Research limitations/implicationsThis study used the sample size by inviting over 150 participants who filled the questionnaires and the area of coverage for the current study was limited to Sandakan, Sabah, Malaysia. Besides, the contributions of this study were confined to those factors examined in the research’s conceptual framework.Practical implicationsThe results obtained through this study can help muamalat practitioners in providing the best practice of tawarruq home financing in the locality at best. In addition, this study also helps to guide managers of Islamic banks to plan better offers of the facility among local folks.Originality/valueThis study integrated religiosity and knowledge in muamalat in explaining millennials’ acceptance of tawarruq home financing in Sandakan, Sabah, Malaysia.
目的本研究旨在调查影响马来西亚沙巴州山打根市千禧一代选择tavarruq住房融资意向的因素。设计/方法/方法。主要数据通过对沙巴州山打根市伊斯兰银行客户进行的问卷调查收集。使用社会科学统计软件包通过多元回归分析对获得的数据进行了分析。发现这项研究发现,穆亚拉特的态度、主观规范、感知的行为控制、宗教信仰和知识与千禧一代在山打根选择tavarruq住房融资的意愿呈正相关,沙巴。研究局限性/含义这项研究通过邀请150多名填写问卷的参与者来使用样本量,目前研究的覆盖范围仅限于马来西亚沙巴州的山打根。此外,本研究的贡献仅限于研究概念框架中考察的因素。实践意义通过本研究获得的结果可以帮助muamalat从业者在当地提供tavarruq住房融资的最佳实践。此外,这项研究也有助于指导伊斯兰银行的经理在当地人中计划更好的贷款。独创性/价值这项研究综合了muamalat的宗教信仰和知识,解释了马来西亚沙巴州山打根市千禧一代对tavarruq住房融资的接受程度。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
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