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Illustrating the structures of bias from immortal time using directed acyclic graphs 用有向无环图说明不朽时间的偏置结构
IF 7.7 2区 医学 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2025-01-07 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyae176
Guoyi Yang, Stephen Burgess, Catherine Mary Schooling
Background Immortal time is a period of follow-up during which death or the study outcome cannot occur by design. Bias from immortal time has been increasingly recognized in epidemiological studies. However, the fundamental causes and structures of bias from immortal time have not been explained systematically. Methods We use an example ‘Does winning a Nobel Prize prolong lifespan?’ for illustration. We illustrate how immortal time arises and present structures of bias from immortal time using directed acyclic graphs that specify time-varying variables. We further explore the structures of bias with the exclusion of immortal time and with the presence of competing risks. We discuss how these structures are shared by different study designs in pharmacoepidemiology and provide solutions, where possible, to address the bias. Results The fundamental cause of immortal time is misalignment of exposure allocation and eligibility. Specifically, immortal time arises from using post-eligibility information to define exposure or using post-exposure information to define eligibility. The structures of bias from immortal time are confounding by survival until exposure allocation or selection bias from selecting on survival until eligibility. Excluding immortal time from follow-up does not fully address this confounding or selection bias, and the presence of competing risks can worsen the bias. Bias from immortal time may be avoided by aligning baseline, exposure allocation and eligibility, and by excluding individuals with prior exposure. Conclusions Understanding bias from immortal time in terms of confounding or selection bias helps researchers identify and thereby avoid or ameliorate this bias.
不朽时间是一段随访期间,在此期间,死亡或研究结果不会被设计发生。在流行病学研究中,人们越来越认识到不朽时间的偏见。然而,对来自不朽时间的偏差的根本原因和结构尚未有系统的解释。方法以“获得诺贝尔奖会延长寿命吗?”的例子。我们使用指定时变变量的有向无环图来说明不朽时间是如何产生的,并给出不朽时间的偏置结构。我们进一步探讨了排除不朽时间和存在竞争风险的偏见结构。我们讨论了在药物流行病学中不同的研究设计如何共享这些结构,并在可能的情况下提供解决方案,以解决偏差。结果造成不朽时间的根本原因是曝光分配与合格性不一致。具体来说,不朽时间源于使用合格后信息来定义曝光或使用暴露后信息来定义合格。从不朽时间开始的偏倚结构被生存到暴露分配或选择偏倚从选择生存到获得资格混淆。从随访中排除不朽时间并不能完全解决这种混淆或选择偏差,而且竞争风险的存在会使偏差恶化。通过调整基线、暴露分配和资格,以及排除既往暴露的个体,可以避免不朽时间的偏差。从混淆或选择偏差的角度理解不朽时间的偏差有助于研究人员识别并避免或改善这种偏差。
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引用次数: 0
Changes in traffic-related air pollution exposures and associations with adverse birth outcomes over 20 years in Texas 20年来德克萨斯州交通相关空气污染暴露的变化及其与不良出生结果的关系
IF 7.7 2区 医学 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2025-01-06 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyae178
Perry Hystad, Elaine L Hill, Andrew Larkin, David Schrank, Max Harleman, Evan Volkin, Erin J Campbell, John Molitor, Lena Harris, Beate R Ritz, Mary D Willis
Background Billions of dollars have been spent implementing regulations to reduce traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) from exhaust pipe emissions. However, few health studies have evaluated the change in TRAP emissions and associations with infant health outcomes. We hypothesize that the magnitude of association between vehicle exposure measures and adverse birth outcomes has decreased over time, parallelling regulatory improvements in exhaust pipe emissions. Methods Using birth records in Texas from 1996 to 2016, we calculated residential exposure measures related to TRAP: nitrogen dioxide (NO2, a marker of the TRAP mixture), vehicle miles travelled within 500 m of homes (VMT500), a measure of traffic volume, and highway proximity. Using an accountability study framework, our analysis examined term birthweight, term low birthweight (TLBW) (<2500 g), preterm birth (PTB) (<37 weeks) and very preterm birth (VPTB) (<32 weeks). We implemented linear and logistic regression models to examine overall and time-stratified associations, including trends by race/ethnicity and socioeconomic groups. Results Among exposures for 6 158 518 births, NO2 exposures decreased 59% over time but VMT500 remained relatively stable. TRAP-related exposure measures were persistently associated with harmful birth outcomes [e.g. OR1996-2016 of 1.07 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.08) for TLBW comparing the highest vs lowest NO2 quintile]. The magnitude of associations decreased for total VMT500 and TLBW (-60%, OR1996: 1.08 to OR2016: 1.03 for the highest vs lowest quintile) and PTB (-65%) and VTPT (-61%), but not for term birthweight. Conclusions We observed evidence of small improvements in birth outcomes associated with reductions in exhaust pipe emissions over a 20-year period in Texas.
为了减少尾气排放造成的交通相关空气污染,已经花费了数十亿美元来实施相关法规。然而,很少有健康研究评估了TRAP排放的变化及其与婴儿健康结果的关系。我们假设,随着时间的推移,车辆暴露措施与不良出生结果之间的关联程度已经降低,与排气管道排放的监管改善平行。方法利用1996年至2016年德克萨斯州的出生记录,我们计算了与TRAP相关的居住暴露措施:二氧化氮(NO2, TRAP混合物的标志)、距离房屋500米内的车辆行驶里程(VMT500)、交通量和高速公路邻近度。使用问责制研究框架,我们的分析检查了足月出生体重、足月低出生体重(TLBW) (2500 g)、早产(PTB)(37周)和极早产(VPTB)(32周)。我们采用线性和逻辑回归模型来检查整体和时间分层的关联,包括种族/民族和社会经济群体的趋势。结果在6 158 518例新生儿中,随着时间的推移,二氧化氮暴露减少了59%,但VMT500保持相对稳定。与trap相关的暴露措施与有害的出生结果持续相关[例如,TLBW在1996-2016年期间的比值为1.07 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.08),比较最高和最低NO2五分位数]。总VMT500和TLBW (-60%, OR1996: 1.08至OR2016: 1.03,最高五分位数vs最低五分位数)和PTB(-65%)和VTPT(-61%)的关联程度下降,但足月出生体重没有。结论:我们观察到有证据表明,在20年的时间里,德克萨斯州的废气排放减少与出生结果的小幅改善有关。
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引用次数: 0
Associations between breastfeeding and breast cancer risk through mammographic breast density in a cohort of Korean women. 在一组韩国妇女中通过乳房x光检查发现母乳喂养与乳腺癌风险之间的关系。
IF 6.4 2区 医学 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2024-12-16 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyae165
Soyeoun Kim, Thi Xuan Mai Tran, Mi Kyung Kim, Min Sung Chung, Eun Hye Lee, Woojoo Lee, Boyoung Park

Background: Mammographic breast density has been suggested to play a role as a mediator between the risk factors for breast cancer (BC) and BC risk. We investigated the extent to which never breastfeeding is a risk factor for BC and how this risk is further mediated by increased mammographic breast density.

Methods: This retrospective cohort study included 4 136 723 women aged ≥40 years who underwent mammographic screening between 2009 and 2010 and were followed up until 31 December 2020. Breastfeeding information was obtained by using a self-administered questionnaire. Mammographic breast density was extracted from national BC screening results, which were assessed by trained radiologists and categorized into dense and fatty breasts. We estimated the hazard ratios (HRs) and the proportion of the associations between breastfeeding and BC risk mediated by breast density.

Results: The HR of never breastfeeding on BC risk was 1.34 (95% CI, 1.32-1.37) when adjusted for only parity, body mass index and smoking status, which were selected as covariates through a directed acyclic graph and 1.21 (95% CI, 1.19-1.23) when breast density was additionally adjusted. The proportion of the association between never breastfeeding and BC risk mediated by breast density in total, pre- and post-menopausal women was 35.48%, 17.86% and 24.0%, respectively (all P < 0.001). The HR of never breastfeeding on BC risk was 1.10 (95% CI, 1.08-1.12) when adjusted for nine known breast cancer risk factors and 1.09 (95% CI, 1.07-1.12) when breast density was additionally adjusted. The proportion of the association between never breastfeeding and BC risk mediated by breast density in the total, pre- and post-menopausal women was 7.50%, 3.71% and 12.21%, respectively (all P < 0.001).

Conclusions: Our findings suggest that the association between never breastfeeding and BC risk may be mediated by breast density. However, the HR and proportion of medications varied according to the adjusted covariates, highlighting that variables for adjustment should be selected based on directed acyclic graphs.

背景:乳房x线摄影显示乳腺密度在乳腺癌(BC)危险因素和乳腺癌风险之间起中介作用。我们调查了从未母乳喂养在多大程度上是乳腺癌的危险因素,以及这种风险如何通过乳房x线摄影乳房密度的增加进一步介导。方法:本回顾性队列研究纳入了4 136 723名年龄≥40岁的女性,她们在2009年至2010年期间接受了乳房x光检查,随访至2020年12月31日。母乳喂养信息通过自行填写问卷获得。乳房x线摄影的乳腺密度是从国家BC筛查结果中提取的,由训练有素的放射科医生评估,并将其分为致密乳房和脂肪乳房。我们估计了母乳喂养与乳腺密度介导的BC风险之间的风险比(hr)和关联比例。结果:当通过有向无环图选择胎次、体重指数和吸烟状况作为协变量时,从不母乳喂养对BC风险的HR为1.34 (95% CI, 1.32-1.37);当另外调整乳房密度时,HR为1.21 (95% CI, 1.19-1.23)。在绝经前和绝经后妇女中,从不母乳喂养与乳腺密度介导的BC风险相关的比例分别为35.48%、17.86%和24.0%(均为P)。结论:我们的研究结果表明,从不母乳喂养与BC风险之间的关联可能是由乳腺密度介导的。然而,药物的HR和比例根据调整的协变量而变化,这突出了调整变量的选择应该基于有向无环图。
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引用次数: 0
Cohort Profile: Healthy Finland Survey. 队列简介:健康芬兰调查。
IF 6.4 2区 医学 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2024-12-16 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyae166
Katri Sääksjärvi, Hanna M Elonheimo, Jonna Ikonen, Lara Lehtoranta, Suvi Parikka, Tommi Härkänen, Terhi Vihervaara, Päivi Sainio, Tuija Jääskeläinen, Anna Liisa Suominen, Ulla Harjunmaa, Pia Mäkelä, Jouni Lahti, Niina E Kaartinen, Seppo Koskinen, Annamari Lundqvist
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引用次数: 0
A proteogenomic analysis of the adiposity colorectal cancer relationship identifies GREM1 as a probable mediator.
IF 6.4 2区 医学 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2024-12-16 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyae175
Matthew A Lee, Charlie A Hatcher, Emma Hazelwood, Lucy J Goudswaard, Konstantinos K Tsilidis, Emma E Vincent, Richard M Martin, Karl Smith-Byrne, Hermann Brenner, Iona Cheng, Sun-Seog Kweon, Loic Le Marchand, Polly A Newcomb, Robert E Schoen, Ulrike Peters, Marc J Gunter, Bethany Van Guelpen, Neil Murphy

Background: Adiposity is an established risk factor for colorectal cancer (CRC). The pathways underlying this relationship, and specifically the role of circulating proteins, are unclear.

Methods: Utilizing two-sample univariable Mendelian randomization (UVMR), multivariable Mendelian randomization (MVMR), and colocalization, based on summary data from large sex-combined and sex-specific genetic studies, we estimated the univariable associations between: (i) body mass index (BMI) and waist-hip ratio (WHR) and overall and site-specific (colon, proximal colon, distal colon, and rectal) CRC risk, (ii) BMI and WHR and circulating proteins, and (iii) adiposity-associated circulating proteins and CRC risk. We used MVMR to investigate the potential mediating role of adiposity- and CRC-related circulating proteins in the adiposity-CRC association.

Results: BMI and WHR were positively associated with CRC risk, with similar associations by anatomical tumor site. In total, 6591 adiposity-protein (2628 unique circulating proteins) and 33 protein-CRC (7 unique circulating proteins) associations were identified using UVMR and colocalization. One circulating protein, GREM1, was associated with BMI (only) and CRC outcomes in a manner that was consistent with a potential mediating role in sex-combined and female-specific analyses. In MVMR, adjusting the BMI-CRC association for GREM1, effect estimates were attenuated-suggestive of a potential mediating role-most strongly for the BMI-overall CRC association in women.

Conclusion: Results highlight the impact of adiposity on the plasma proteome and of adiposity-associated circulating proteins on the risk of CRC. Supported by evidence from UVMR and colocalization analyses using cis-single-nucleotide polymorphisms, GREM1 was identified as a potential mediator of the BMI-CRC association, particularly in women.

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引用次数: 0
Cohort Profile Update: The Danish Nurse Cohort. 队列概况更新:丹麦护士队列。
IF 6.4 2区 医学 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2024-12-16 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyae168
Mette Kildevæld Simonsen, Berit Lilienthal Heitmann, Dorthe Boe Danbjærg, Christoffer Johansen, Maria Kristiansen, Ola Ekholm
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引用次数: 0
Increased risk of subsequent antiphospholipid syndrome in patients with endometriosis. 子宫内膜异位症患者随后抗磷脂综合征的风险增加。
IF 6.4 2区 医学 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2024-12-16 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyae167
Zhiyong Chen, Ran Cui, Shiow-Ing Wang, Hua Zhang, Miao Chen, Qian Wang, Qiang Tong, James Cheng-Chung Wei, Sheng-Ming Dai

Background: Although autoimmune abnormalities are common in patients with endometriosis, it is unknown whether patients with endometriosis have a higher risk of developing antiphospholipid syndrome (APS).

Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study by using the multi-institutional research network TriNetX from 1 January 2012 to 31 December 2021. A total of 13 131 782 women aged 20-60 years from networks within the USA were included. The risks of APS were compared between an endometriosis cohort and a non-endometriosis cohort in subgroup analyses by age, obesity and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), and the sensitivity analysis was stratified by the presence or absence of a history of surgery of the uterus.

Results: After 1:1 propensity score matching, the endometriosis and non-endometriosis cohorts each included 50 078 participants. Compared to individuals without endometriosis, patients with endometriosis had a higher risk of incident APS (log-rank test, P < 0.001). The hazard ratios (HRs) ranged from 1.82 [APS within 30 days to 1 year after the index date, 95% confidence intervals (CIs) 1.40-2.53] to 2.44 (APS within 30 days to any time after the index date, 95% CI 1.65-3.61). In the subgroup analyses, an increased risk of APS was observed in all ages, White race, and subgroups without smoking, obesity, asthma, inflammatory bowel disease and SLE (HR range 1.85-2.84). Sensitivity analyses revealed that the risk of APS increased in patients without surgery history of the uterus.

Conclusions: Patients with endometriosis had a higher risk (2.84-fold) of developing APS. Future large-scale prospective studies are warranted to confirm our results.

背景:虽然自身免疫异常在子宫内膜异位症患者中很常见,但目前尚不清楚子宫内膜异位症患者发生抗磷脂综合征(APS)的风险是否更高。方法:2012年1月1日至2021年12月31日,我们通过多机构研究网络TriNetX进行了一项回顾性队列研究。来自美国网络的年龄在20-60岁的女性共1313782人被纳入研究。在年龄、肥胖和系统性红斑狼疮(SLE)的亚组分析中,比较子宫内膜异位症组和非子宫内膜异位症组APS的风险,并根据是否有子宫手术史进行敏感性分析。结果:经过1:1的倾向评分匹配,子宫内膜异位症和非子宫内膜异位症队列各包括5078名参与者。与无子宫内膜异位症患者相比,子宫内膜异位症患者发生APS的风险更高(log-rank检验,P)。结论:子宫内膜异位症患者发生APS的风险更高(2.84倍)。未来有必要进行大规模前瞻性研究来证实我们的结果。
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引用次数: 0
Acute coronary syndrome rates by age and sex before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Israel: nationwide study 以色列COVID-19大流行之前和期间按年龄和性别划分的急性冠状动脉综合征发病率:全国性研究
IF 7.7 2区 医学 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2024-12-16 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyae164
Alexander Kagan, Donna R Zwas, Ziona Haklai, Hagai Levine
Background There have been reports of sharp declines in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study aims to assess nationwide ACS emergency department (ED) visit rates across age and sex subgroups and the general population, with a comparison before and throughout the pandemic’s various phases. Methods A multiple interrupted time series analysis was used to assess 61 349 ACS nationwide hospital visits from January 2018 to December 2021 at monthly intervals. The study period was divided into three periods: January 2018–February 2020 (pre-pandemic period); March 2020–January 2021 (early-pandemic period); February 2021–December 2021 (late-pandemic period). Segmented regression with a seasonally adjusted autoregressive moving average structure was used to build predictive models with an estimated reference trendline (counterfactual). Results Over 11 months of the early-pandemic period (lockdowns), the largest decrease in visits was seen in women aged 65 and above, of 18.4% [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.82; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.77–0.86]. The lowest decrease was observed in men aged 25–64, of 7.2% (IRR 0.93; 0.91–0.94). During the late-pandemic period, which included high vaccination coverage and no lockdowns, the largest further decrease was in women aged 25–64 of 20.1% (IRR 0.80; 0.75–0.84) on average. Conclusions The pandemic influenced ACS ED visits variably, with substantial declines during phases of high COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. Older individuals, particularly women, demonstrated the largest decrease in ACS ED visits, highlighting the need for tailored public health strategies to maintain public confidence in access to critical care during future health emergencies.
背景 据报道,在 COVID-19 大流行期间,急性冠状动脉综合征 (ACS) 发病率急剧下降。本研究旨在评估全国范围内不同年龄和性别亚群以及普通人群的急性冠状动脉综合征急诊科(ED)就诊率,并在大流行之前和整个大流行期间进行比较。方法 采用多重中断时间序列分析法,评估 2018 年 1 月至 2021 年 12 月期间全国范围内 61 349 例 ACS 住院就诊情况,每月间隔一次。研究期间分为三个阶段:2018年1月至2020年2月(流行前期);2020年3月至2021年1月(流行前期);2021年2月至2021年12月(流行后期)。使用具有季节调整自回归移动平均结构的分段回归建立预测模型,并估计参考趋势线(反事实)。结果 在大流行早期的 11 个月中(锁定期),65 岁及以上女性的就诊人次降幅最大,达 18.4% [发病率比 (IRR) 0.82; 95% 置信区间 (CI) 0.77-0.86]。25-64 岁男性的减少率最低,为 7.2%(发病率比为 0.93;0.91-0.94)。在大流行后期,由于疫苗接种覆盖率高且没有封锁,25-64 岁女性的平均降幅最大,为 20.1%(IRR 0.80;0.75-0.84)。结论 大流行对 ACS 急诊就诊率的影响各不相同,在 COVID-19 发病率和死亡率较高的阶段,就诊率大幅下降。老年人(尤其是女性)的 ACS 急诊就诊率降幅最大,这凸显了在未来的突发卫生事件中,有必要制定有针对性的公共卫生策略,以保持公众对获得重症护理的信心。
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引用次数: 0
Cohort Profile: The Performance Monitoring for Action (PMA) panel surveys. 队列简介:行动绩效监测(PMA)小组调查。
IF 6.4 2区 医学 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2024-12-16 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyae180
Aisha Siewe, Meagan E Byrne, Dana Sarnak, Saifuddin Ahmed, Scott Radloff, Win Brown, Linnea A Zimmerman, Amy Tsui, Yoonjoung Choi, Elizabeth Gummerson, Caroline Moreau, Carolina Cardona, Shannon Wood, Celia Karp, Suzanne O Bell, Georges Guiella, Rosine Mosso, Fassassi Raïmi, Pierre Akilimali, Anoop Khanna, Peter Gichangi, Mary Thiongo, Souleymane Alzouma, Sani Oumarou, Elizabeth Omoluabi, Funmilola M OlaOlorun, Musa Sani Zakirai, Frederick Makumbi, Simon Peter Sebina Kibira, Philip Anglewicz
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引用次数: 0
Data Resource Profile: Harmonized health survey data for 240 cities across 11 countries in Latin America: the SALURBAL project. 数据资源简介:拉丁美洲11个国家240个城市的统一卫生调查数据:SALURBAL项目。
IF 6.4 2区 医学 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2024-12-16 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyae171
Kari Moore, Mariana Lazo, Ana Ortigoza, D Alex Quistberg, Brisa Sanchez, Binod Acharya, Tania Alfaro, Maria Fernanda Kroker-Lobos, Mariana Carvalho De Menezes, Olga Lucia Sarmiento, Amanda C de Souza Andrade, Carolina Perez Ferrer, Akram Hernandez Vasquez, Waleska Teixeira Caiaffa, Ana V Diez Roux
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引用次数: 0
期刊
International journal of epidemiology
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