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Analysis of Weather Characteristics and Decision Service of Typical Rainstorm and Flood in Hebei Province 河北省典型暴雨洪涝天气特征分析及决策服务
Su-jie Duan, Yuchao Qi, Qing-yun Zhao
This paper analyzes and contrasts the four major torrential rain and flood weather backgrounds, rainfall conditions and characteristics, disaster situation and forecast service conditions of “ 63.8 ” 、 “96.8” 、 “7.21”and“7.19”in Hebei Province.The results show that:The torrential rains concentrated in the period from late July to early August. They all lasted for a long time and had a wide range of impacts.The torrential rains in the western mountainous areas were more serious. The “63.8”rainfall process lasted for 10 days,which was the longest in the four-time process;“63.8” had the highest rainfall intensity and the most serious disaster;“7.19”had the largest disaster area and the disaster degree was less than“63.8”. With the improvement of forecasting accuracy and the development of intelligence and informatization,the methods,means and channels of meteorological services have also undergone great changes. The decision-making meteorological services provide a more reliable basis for government decision-making,caused by major meteorological disasters.The number of deaths has decreased,the proportion of economic losses caused by meteorological disasters has fallen,and the benefits of meteorological services in mitigating the losses caused by meteorological disasters have increased. Keywords-torrential rain, weather characteristics, decision service 摘要:本文通过对河北省“63.8”、“96.8”、 “7.21”、“7.19”四次特大暴雨洪涝天气天气背 景、降雨实况及特征、灾情、预报服务情况进行分 析对比,结果表明:四次致灾暴雨集中出现在 7 月 下旬到 8 月上旬,都是持续时间长,影响范围广, 西部山区暴雨灾害更加严重。“63.8”降雨过程持 续时间10天,为四次过程中持续时间最长;“63.8” 降雨强度最大,受灾最为严重;“7.19”受灾范围 最大,受灾程度小于“63.8”。随着预报准确率的 提高和智能化、信息化的发展,气象服务的方式、 手段、渠道也发生了很大变化,决策气象服务工作 为政府决策提供了更加可靠的依据,重大气象灾害 造成的死亡人数降低,气象灾害造成的经济损失占 GDP 的比例下降,气象服务在减轻气象灾害所造成 损失的效益越来越大。
对河北省“63.8”、“96.8”、“7.21”、“7.19”四次特大暴雨洪涝天气背景、降雨条件与特征、灾情与预报服务条件进行了分析对比。结果表明:暴雨集中在7月下旬至8月上旬;它们都持续了很长时间,产生了广泛的影响。西部山区的暴雨更为严重。“63.8”降雨过程持续时间为10天,是4次降雨过程中最长的;“63.8”降雨强度最大,灾情最严重;“7.19”受灾面积最大,灾情程度小于“63.8”。随着预报精度的提高和智能化、信息化的发展,气象服务的方法、手段和渠道也发生了很大的变化。决策气象服务为政府应对重大气象灾害提供了更为可靠的决策依据。气象灾害造成的死亡人数下降,气象灾害造成的经济损失比例下降,气象服务在减轻气象灾害损失中的效益增加。Keywords-torrential下雨,天气特点、决策服务摘要:本文通过对河北省“63.8”、“96.8”、“7.21”、“7.19”四次特大暴雨洪涝天气天气背景,降雨实况及特征,灾情,预报服务情况进行分析对比,结果表明:四次致灾暴雨集中出现在7月下旬到8月上旬,都是持续时间长,影响范围广,西部山区暴雨灾害更加严重。“63.8”降雨过程持续时间10天,为四次过程中持续时间最长;“63.8”降雨强度最大,受灾最为严重,“7.19”受灾范围最大,受灾程度小于“63.8”。随着预报准确率的提高和智能化、信息化的发展,气象服务的方式,手段,渠道也发生了很大变化,决策气象服务工作为政府决策提供了更加可靠的依据,重大气象灾害造成的死亡人数降低,气象灾害造成的经济损失占国内生产总值的比例下降,气象服务在减轻气象灾害所造成损失的效益越来越大。
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引用次数: 0
Spatial-temporal Variation of climate comfort in Qinhuangdao in the past 53 years 秦皇岛近53年气候舒适度时空变化特征
Jing Xu, Xianmei Lu, Zhigang Liu, Jinmei Song
Based on meteorological data in the past 53 years (1966-2018), this paper analyzes the climate comfort changes in Qinhuangdao by using the method of climate comfort evaluation and trend analysis. The results show that the climate comfort changes in the northern mountainous area of Qinhuangdao, the central plain and the southeastern coastal areas are consistent, and there are spatial differences. In general, Qinhuangdao's climate comfort is mainly comfortable to cool, the comfort and relative comfort levels of each region account for 47% to 49%, and the cold discomfort level accounts for 34% to 37%,the hot and hotter discomfort levels are rare. In the past 53 years, the climate comfort in summer and winter shows a warming trend, and the warming range in winter was larger than that in summer. In the past 53 years, the number of hot uncomfortable days has increased sharply since the 1990s, and the number of cold uncomfortable days has decreased year by year. The number of hot uncomfortable days increases with the decrease of altitude and latitude of the station in space, while the number of cold uncomfortable days is the opposite. The climate is comfortable or relatively comfortable from May to October. The whole area of Qinhuangdao is suitable for tourism and recuperation from May to October. There is no intense hot in July and August. The “slightly hot” weather provides favorable weather conditions for people to swim in the sea, the relative cold climate in March, April and November is a good time for outdoor mountain climbing, the climate is cold and uncomfortable from December to February, not suitable for mass tourism, but suitable for ice and snow tourism activities. Therefore, it can be considered that Qinhuangdao is suitable for tourism all seasons. This provides a basis for tourism development and planning in Qinhuangdao and for studying the impact of climate change on tourism, and provides life and travel weather service guidance for the Kangyang group that came to "Qinhuangshanhai, Kangyangfudi".
基于近53 a(1966-2018)的气象资料,采用气候舒适度评价和趋势分析方法,对秦皇岛气候舒适度变化进行了分析。结果表明:秦皇岛北部山区、中部平原和东南沿海地区的气候舒适度变化具有一致性,但存在空间差异;总体上,秦皇岛的气候舒适度以凉爽舒适为主,各区域的舒适度和相对舒适度等级占47% ~ 49%,冷不适等级占34% ~ 37%,热、热不适等级较少。近53 a来,夏季和冬季气候舒适度均呈现增温趋势,且冬季增温幅度大于夏季。近53年来,自20世纪90年代以来,热不适日数急剧增加,冷不适日数逐年减少。热不适日数随空间站高度和纬度的降低而增加,冷不适日数则相反。五月至十月气候舒适或相对舒适。5月至10月,整个秦皇岛地区都适合旅游疗养。七月和八月没有酷热。“微热”的天气为人们下海游泳提供了有利的天气条件,3、4、11月相对寒冷的气候是户外登山的好时机,12月至2月气候寒冷不适,不适合大众旅游,但适合冰雪旅游活动。因此,可以认为秦皇岛适合四季旅游。为秦皇岛旅游开发规划和研究气候变化对旅游业的影响提供依据,为来到“秦皇山海,康阳府第”的康阳团提供生活和旅行气象服务指导。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis on the Vulnerability of Natural Disasters in Coastal Cities and Assessment of the Construction of Flexible Cities 沿海城市自然灾害脆弱性分析与弹性城市建设评价
Kaiyuan Wang, M. He
— With the expansion of urban population and economic development, the hidden dangers of disasters are increasing, and the disaster factors are constantly expanding and intensifying. Especially in coastal cities, because of the interaction between climate and land and sea, coastal cities are both pregnant and disaster-bearing. The National Plan for Comprehensive Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (2016-2020) states that the complex and volatile disaster situation in China and the weak foundation for disaster prevention and reduction require us to take a long-term, holistic and changing view of urban development. We will continue to improve the ability of cities to adapt to and transform against natural disasters and risks. Therefore, the study on the vulnerability and resilience of coastal cities to natural disasters is of great significance to improve the resilience and resilience of cities.
——随着城市人口的增长和经济的发展,灾害隐患不断增加,灾害因素不断扩大和加剧。特别是沿海城市,由于气候与陆地、海洋的相互作用,沿海城市既孕育又承载着灾害。《国家综合防灾减灾规划(2016-2020年)》提出,中国灾害形势复杂多变,防灾减灾基础薄弱,需要以长远、统筹、变化的眼光看待城市发展。继续提高城市对自然灾害和风险的适应和转化能力。因此,研究沿海城市对自然灾害的脆弱性和复原力,对提高城市的复原力和复原力具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Landing China Typhoon Extreme Analysis and Catastrophe Risk Management Research 登陆中国台风极端分析与巨灾风险管理研究
Kaicheng Xing, Yu Jing, Gui-Qing Ma
登陆中国台风极端性分析与巨灾风险管理研究 邢开成 1,2 井元元 1,2* 马贵宏 3 1.河北省气象与生态环境重点实验室 2.河北省气候中心 3.河北省石家庄市高邑县气象局 石家庄 050021,中国 yuan_yuan_jing@sina.com Abstract—This paper analyzes the impact of typhoon and direct economic losses on coastal areas of China. In combination with the current situation of typhoon catastrophe management, and the typhoon catastrophe insurance burden on typhoon losses, there is a huge gap compared with international social insurance claims. The role of the insurance industry in dealing with catastrophe has not been fully realized. According to the trend that the risk of typhoon disasters landing in China may increase in the future, it is proposed that catastrophe risk management should be strengthened from the state. Establish effective typhoon catastrophe insurance laws and regulations and risk management guarantee system. The government strongly supports typhoon disaster insurance and reinsurance, and actively promotes the optimization of typhoon catastrophe insurance market system and catastrophe weather index insurance product innovation to spread typhoon catastrophe risk. To ensure the stability and unity of the post-disaster society and the stable development of the economy.
1,2, 1,2*, 1,2*, 1, 3河北省气象与生态环境重点实验室 2.河北省气候中心 3.摘要:本文分析了台风对中国沿海地区的影响和直接经济损失。结合目前台风巨灾管理的现状,以及台风巨灾保险对台风损失的负担,与国际社会保险理赔相比存在巨大差距。保险业在应对巨灾中的作用尚未得到充分认识。根据未来台风灾害登陆中国的风险可能增加的趋势,提出从国家层面加强巨灾风险管理。建立有效的台风巨灾保险法律法规和风险管理保障体系。政府大力支持台风巨灾保险和再保险,积极推动台风巨灾保险市场体系优化和巨灾天气指数保险产品创新,分散台风巨灾风险。确保灾后社会的稳定团结和经济的稳定发展。
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引用次数: 0
Summary of research on disaster prevention of mid-story isolation buildings caused by long period ground motion disasters 长周期地震动引起的中层隔震建筑防灾研究综述
Yafei Zhang, Tingshun Dong, Sitong Fang, Jie Zhao, Yu-lin Ning, Jibing Zhao
长周期地震动作用下层间隔震建筑防灾研 究综述 张亚飞 1,董廷顺 2,房思彤 1,赵洁 1,宁宇峰 1,招继炳 1,周旺旺 1,刘德稳 1 1 西南林业大学土木工程学院 2 昆明新正东阳建筑工程设计有限公司 昆明 650000,中国 1165638944@qq.com Abstract—This paper summarizes the definition and characteristics of long-period ground motion and the research results of long-period ground motion monitoring in the region where earthquakes occur, summarizes the research status of disaster prevention of mid-story isolated buildings under long-period earthquake excitation. Through the simulation of finite element software and shaking table test under longperiod ground motion, it can be concluded that the story isolation structure has good disaster prevention ability under long-period ground motion, it is pointed out that under the action of long-period ground motion, various factors such as velocity pulse, different isolation layers and different isolation bearings should be considered for isolation design; it will be a new direction of design and research to use protective measures to effectively limit protection and to explore energy dissipation measures with remarkable effect in story isolation design. Keywords— long-period ground motions; monitor; mid-story isolation; disaster prevention capability; research summary
长周期地震动作用下层间隔震建筑防灾研究综述张亚飞1,董廷顺2房思彤1,赵洁1,宁宇峰1,招继炳1周旺旺1,刘德稳1西南林业大学土木工程学院2昆明新正东阳建筑工程设计有限公司昆明650000年,中国1165638944 @qq.com摘要论文总结了长周期地震动的定义和特点以及长周期地震动监测的研究成果在该地区地震发生,总结了研究现状的防灾mid-story孤立长周期地震激励下的建筑。通过有限元软件模拟和长周期地震动作用下的振动台试验,得出楼层隔震结构在长周期地震动作用下具有良好的防灾能力,并指出在长周期地震动作用下,隔震设计应考虑速度脉动、不同隔震层和不同隔震支座等多种因素;利用防护措施有效限制防护,探索楼层隔震设计中效果显著的耗能措施,将是设计与研究的新方向。关键词:长周期地震动;监控;mid-story隔离;防灾能力;研究总结
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引用次数: 0
Risk assessment of Typhoons and storm surges disasters of Qinhuangdao 秦皇岛台风风暴潮灾害风险评估
Su-Yun Sun, W. Zhang, Zhizheng Mao, Chenyu Zhang
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引用次数: 0
Impact Mechanism and Risk Assessment of Climate Change on Coastal Economic Development 气候变化对沿海经济发展的影响机制及风险评估
Feng Wang, Q. Long, Xinyue Mi, Yue Liu, Ren Zhang
{"title":"Impact Mechanism and Risk Assessment of Climate Change on Coastal Economic Development","authors":"Feng Wang, Q. Long, Xinyue Mi, Yue Liu, Ren Zhang","doi":"10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.4","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":142201,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Fourth Symposium on Disaster Risk Analysis and Management in Chinese Littoral Regions (DRAMCLR 2019)","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121288649","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Characteristic of temporal and spatial patterns of Torrential rains in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao greater bay area in Recent 36 years 近36年粤港澳大湾区暴雨的时空格局特征
Yusi Li, Qinghua Gong, Junxiang Zhang, Zhao-cheng Guo, Bowen Liu
{"title":"The Characteristic of temporal and spatial patterns of Torrential rains in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao greater bay area in Recent 36 years","authors":"Yusi Li, Qinghua Gong, Junxiang Zhang, Zhao-cheng Guo, Bowen Liu","doi":"10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.12","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.12","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":142201,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Fourth Symposium on Disaster Risk Analysis and Management in Chinese Littoral Regions (DRAMCLR 2019)","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129192598","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Risk Analysis and Management of Coastal Zone, Estuary and Offshore Ecological Environment 海岸带、河口及近海生态环境风险分析与管理
Qiang Li
{"title":"Risk Analysis and Management of Coastal Zone, Estuary and Offshore Ecological Environment","authors":"Qiang Li","doi":"10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.32","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.32","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":142201,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Fourth Symposium on Disaster Risk Analysis and Management in Chinese Littoral Regions (DRAMCLR 2019)","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126012357","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Research on Coupling and Coordinating Development of Big Data Industry and Ecological Civilization in Guizhou 贵州大数据产业与生态文明耦合协调发展研究
Xiaona Feng, Mu Zhang
In order to promote the coordinated development of Guizhou's big data industry and the construction of ecological civilization, this paper combines qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis. First, it creatively introduces the search engine data-Baidu index into the evaluation system, and establishes a large data industry water including three first-level indicators: industrial scale, infrastructure and Baidu index. The level rating index system and the level evaluation index system of ecological civilization construction including four first-level indicators of ecological economy, ecological environment, ecological livability and ecological culture. Then, using the panel data of nine cities in Guizhou Province from 2013 to 2017, the coupling and coordination model of large data industry system and ecological civilization construction system is constructed. According to the grey relational projection value calculated, the differences of the development level of big data industry and the level of ecological civilization construction in each prefecture and city are compared and analyzed, and then the corresponding measures are put forward according to the regional differences. Finally, nine prefectures in Guizhou are calculated by using the coupling coordination model. The change and development trend of coupling coordination degree between big data industry and ecological civilization construction in five years in the city of Guizhou are analyzed quantitatively. The development situation of coupling between big data industry system and ecological civilization construction system in Guizhou prefecture-level cities from 2013 to 2017 is analyzed, and relevant policy suggestions are put forward to further promote the construction of big data industry and ecological civilization in Guizhou. Deep and coordinated development. Keywords—Search Engine Data; Large Data Industry Level Evaluation; Ecological Civilization Construction Level Evaluation; Coupling and Coordination 摘要—为促进贵州大数据产业与生态文明建设协调发展, 本文以定性分析与定量分析相结合的方法,首先创造性地将 搜索引擎数据-百度指数引入到评价体系中,建立了包含产业 规模、基础设施、百度指数三个一级指标的大数据产业水平 评级指标体系和包含生态经济、生态环境、生态宜居和生态 文化四个一级指标的生态文明建设水平评价指标体系;然 后,采用 2013-2017 年贵州省九个地州市的面板数据,构建 出大数据产业系统与生态文明建设系统的耦合协调模型,并 运用熵权法赋予各指标权重,根据计算所得的灰色关联投影 值,比较分析各个地州市的大数据产业发展水平和生态文明 建设水平的差异,进而针对地区的差异提出针对性的措施; 最后,运用耦合协调模型计算贵州九个地州市五年内的大数 据产业和生态文明建设的耦合协调度变化情况与发展趋势, 定量分析贵州地级市 2013-2017 年大数据产业系统与生态文 明建设系统耦合的发展情况,并提出相关政策建议,进一步 促进贵州大数据产业与生态文明建设的深度协调发展。 关键词—搜索引擎数据,大数据产业水平评级,生态文明 建设水平评价,耦合协调
为了促进贵州大数据产业与生态文明建设的协调发展,本文将定性分析与定量分析相结合。首先,创造性地将搜索引擎数据——百度指数引入评价体系,建立了包含产业规模、基础设施、百度指数三个一级指标的大数据产业水。生态文明建设等级评定指标体系和等级评价指标体系包括生态经济、生态环境、生态宜居、生态文化四个一级指标。然后,利用贵州省9个城市2013 - 2017年的面板数据,构建了大数据产业体系与生态文明建设体系的耦合协调模型。根据计算出的灰色关联投影值,对比分析各地市大数据产业发展水平和生态文明建设水平的差异,并根据区域差异提出相应的对策。最后,采用耦合协调模型对贵州9个地州进行了计算。定量分析了贵州省5年来大数据产业与生态文明建设耦合协调度的变化及发展趋势。分析了2013 - 2017年贵州地级市大数据产业体系与生态文明建设体系耦合发展情况,并提出了进一步推进贵州大数据产业与生态文明建设的相关政策建议。深度协调发展。关键词:搜索引擎;数据;大数据产业水平评价;生态文明建设水平评价;耦合和协调摘要——为促进贵州大数据产业与生态文明建设协调发展,本文以定性分析与定量分析相结合的方法,首先创造性地将搜索引擎数据——百度指数引入到评价体系中,建立了包含产业规模,基础设施,百度指数三个一级指标的大数据产业水平评级指标体系和包含生态经济、生态环境,生态宜居和生态文化四个一级指标的生态文明建设水平评价指标体系,然后,采用2013 - 2017年贵州省九个地州市的面板数据,构建出大数据产业系统与生态文明建设系统的耦合协调模型,并运用熵权法赋予各指标权重,根据计算所得的灰色关联投影值,比较分析各个地州市的大数据产业发展水平和生态文明建设水平的差异,进而针对地区的差异提出针对性的措施;最后,运用耦合协调模型计算贵州九个地州市五年内的大数 据产业和生态文明建设的耦合协调度变化情况与发展趋势, 定量分析贵州地级市 2013-2017 年大数据产业系统与生态文 明建设系统耦合的发展情况,并提出相关政策建议,进一步 促进贵州大数据产业与生态文明建设的深度协调发展。 关键词—搜索引擎数据,大数据产业水平评级,生态文明 建设水平评价,耦合协调
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引用次数: 0
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Proceedings of the Fourth Symposium on Disaster Risk Analysis and Management in Chinese Littoral Regions (DRAMCLR 2019)
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