Pub Date : 2019-11-01DOI: 10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.39
Qiang Wu, Jiayu Li, Xiaoyan Ding, Li Wang, Nasen Li
Compared with ordinary buildings, Old industrial buildings have short construction period; Lack of policies, regulations and technical standards. In order to ensure the successful implementation of the old industrial building recycling project, all participants must share the project risks reasonably. This paper takes the project of old industrial building recycling as the research object. Firstly, the Delphi method is adopted to identify the project risk. Based on the incomplete contract theory, the risk is clearly divided into the contracting stage and the risk of the performance stage. Secondly, based on participant satisfaction, build index system of risk sharing, using C-OWA operator for risk sharing weighting, avoid the ill effects of the expert subjective preferences, under TOPSIS and UT theory, form a sharing mode that is complete, reasonably define the responsibility attribution of risks and determine the optimal sharing proportion of Shared risks. Finally, the model is applied to a creative industrial park project transformed from a steel mill in Shanxi province to prove the rationality of the model, and provide reference for the formulation of risk sharing scheme of China's old industrial building recycling project. Keywords—old industrial building; recycling; creative industry park;risk sharing 摘要—旧工业建筑再生利用后与普通建筑物相比,具有建设周 期短,缺乏政策法规及技术标准等特点。为保证旧工业建筑再 生利用项目成功实施,各参与方必须合理分担项目风险。本文 以旧工业建筑再生利用为创意产业园的项目为研究对象,首先 采用 Delphi 法识别项目风险,依据不完全契约理论,将风险 明确划分为缔约阶段风险与履约阶段风险;其次构建基于参与 方满意度的风险分担指标体系,利用 C-OWA 算子对风险分担指 标赋权,避免专家主观偏好带来的不良影响,在此前提下将理 想解法(TOPSIS)与效用理论(UT)相结合,形成一套具有两者优 势及完整的风险分担模型,合理界定风险的责任归属和确定共 担风险的最优分担比例;最后将模型应用到由陕西某钢厂改造 而成的创意产业园项目,证明该模型的合理性,为我国旧工业 建筑再生利用项目风险分担方案制定提供参考。 关键词-旧工业建筑, 再生利用, 创意产业园, 风险分担
{"title":"Research on Risk Sharing of Creative Industrial Park by Recycling Old Industrial Buildings","authors":"Qiang Wu, Jiayu Li, Xiaoyan Ding, Li Wang, Nasen Li","doi":"10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.39","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.39","url":null,"abstract":"Compared with ordinary buildings, Old industrial buildings have short construction period; Lack of policies, regulations and technical standards. In order to ensure the successful implementation of the old industrial building recycling project, all participants must share the project risks reasonably. This paper takes the project of old industrial building recycling as the research object. Firstly, the Delphi method is adopted to identify the project risk. Based on the incomplete contract theory, the risk is clearly divided into the contracting stage and the risk of the performance stage. Secondly, based on participant satisfaction, build index system of risk sharing, using C-OWA operator for risk sharing weighting, avoid the ill effects of the expert subjective preferences, under TOPSIS and UT theory, form a sharing mode that is complete, reasonably define the responsibility attribution of risks and determine the optimal sharing proportion of Shared risks. Finally, the model is applied to a creative industrial park project transformed from a steel mill in Shanxi province to prove the rationality of the model, and provide reference for the formulation of risk sharing scheme of China's old industrial building recycling project. Keywords—old industrial building; recycling; creative industry park;risk sharing 摘要—旧工业建筑再生利用后与普通建筑物相比,具有建设周 期短,缺乏政策法规及技术标准等特点。为保证旧工业建筑再 生利用项目成功实施,各参与方必须合理分担项目风险。本文 以旧工业建筑再生利用为创意产业园的项目为研究对象,首先 采用 Delphi 法识别项目风险,依据不完全契约理论,将风险 明确划分为缔约阶段风险与履约阶段风险;其次构建基于参与 方满意度的风险分担指标体系,利用 C-OWA 算子对风险分担指 标赋权,避免专家主观偏好带来的不良影响,在此前提下将理 想解法(TOPSIS)与效用理论(UT)相结合,形成一套具有两者优 势及完整的风险分担模型,合理界定风险的责任归属和确定共 担风险的最优分担比例;最后将模型应用到由陕西某钢厂改造 而成的创意产业园项目,证明该模型的合理性,为我国旧工业 建筑再生利用项目风险分担方案制定提供参考。 关键词-旧工业建筑, 再生利用, 创意产业园, 风险分担","PeriodicalId":142201,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Fourth Symposium on Disaster Risk Analysis and Management in Chinese Littoral Regions (DRAMCLR 2019)","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116508106","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-11-01DOI: 10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.3
Changlong Li
According to statistics, there have been about 420 earthquakes with M6 or higher in China's coastal and offshore areas since the record, including 63 earthquakes with M7 or higher and 3 earthquakes of M8 and above, showing high major earthquake seismicity. At the same time, due to the economic growth of China in recent years, the population, infrastructure and major projects in the coastal areas have increased rapidly. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the dangers of large earthquakes in China's offshore and disaster risk countermeasures. In this paper, we use the data of the fifth generation of China Seismic Hazard Map to calculate the frequency of earthquakes in the offshore areas of China and the offshore areas above the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea and the South China Sea, and give the major disaster risk countermeasures in the coastal and offshore areas. This paper shows that the frequency of earthquakes larger than M6 in the offshore areas of the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea, the South China Sea and the whole region is about 0.036, 0.054, 1.03, 0.28 and 1.4 times per year respectively, and the frequency of earthquakes above M7 is about 0.014, 0.021, 0.46, 0.14 and 0.68 time per year respectively. The potential risks of land liquefaction must be guarded in the coastal and estuary delta areas. The potential risks of offshore wave storm, tsunami and land sinking must be guarded in the coastal areas of Fujian, Taiwan, Guangdong and northern Hainan.
{"title":"Study on Seismicity and Secondary Disaster Countermeasures of Offshore Earthquake of China","authors":"Changlong Li","doi":"10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.3","url":null,"abstract":"According to statistics, there have been about 420 earthquakes with M6 or higher in China's coastal and offshore areas since the record, including 63 earthquakes with M7 or higher and 3 earthquakes of M8 and above, showing high major earthquake seismicity. At the same time, due to the economic growth of China in recent years, the population, infrastructure and major projects in the coastal areas have increased rapidly. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the dangers of large earthquakes in China's offshore and disaster risk countermeasures. In this paper, we use the data of the fifth generation of China Seismic Hazard Map to calculate the frequency of earthquakes in the offshore areas of China and the offshore areas above the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea and the South China Sea, and give the major disaster risk countermeasures in the coastal and offshore areas. This paper shows that the frequency of earthquakes larger than M6 in the offshore areas of the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea, the South China Sea and the whole region is about 0.036, 0.054, 1.03, 0.28 and 1.4 times per year respectively, and the frequency of earthquakes above M7 is about 0.014, 0.021, 0.46, 0.14 and 0.68 time per year respectively. The potential risks of land liquefaction must be guarded in the coastal and estuary delta areas. The potential risks of offshore wave storm, tsunami and land sinking must be guarded in the coastal areas of Fujian, Taiwan, Guangdong and northern Hainan.","PeriodicalId":142201,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Fourth Symposium on Disaster Risk Analysis and Management in Chinese Littoral Regions (DRAMCLR 2019)","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133561505","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
of Tank Farm based on Improved Fuzzy AHP Method Qilei Wang, Benli Li, Xifeng Kang, Fang Zhang, Chunlei Jia, Xiaoming Zhang China People′s Police University Hebei Langfang, China 403115051@qq.com 基于改进模糊层次分析法的油罐区火灾 风险安全评价研究 王其磊,李本利,康习锋,张芳,贾春雷,张晓明 中国人民警察大学 河北 廊坊 065000 中国 403115051@qq.com Abstract-From the fire safety point of view, the impact factors and evaluation index of fire safety in tank farm are important to fire safety and fire rescue system. The tank farm fire risk assessment system was structured by multi coupling relationship of fire safety was integrated used and improved fuzzy AHP method was used in the fire safety evaluation, fire hydrant system,nitrogen cooling and evacuation system. Using expert scoring method to evaluate the index weight, and the original fuzzy analysis hierarchy model was improved. The results show that: the method reduces the weight of the evaluation subjectivity, and evaluate the overall effect is better, the results show that the model is reasonable and feasible. The improved fuzzy AHP evaluation method applied to fire risk evaluation of tank farm is practical and effective. Keywordsfire risk; tank farm; improved fuzzy AHP method; safety evaluation 摘要-从消防安全性角度对油罐区中火灾风险的影 响因素及评价指标进行分析,对消防安全及灭火救 援保障具有重要的意义。综合运用消防安全多元耦 合关系及改进模糊层次分析法对影响消防安全的 报警系统、消火栓给水系统、氮冷却系统、疏散系 统、消防队救援等的重要性及合理程度进行深入分 析,构建了油罐区火灾风险消防安全评价体系。运 用专家打分法对指标权重份数进行了评价, 并对 原有的模糊分析层次模型进行改进,对某油罐区火 灾风险进行实例验证。结果表明:该方法减少了确 定权重的主观性,评价总体效果较好,结果表明该 模型合理、可行,改进模糊层次评价方法应用于油 罐区火灾风险消防安全评价是实用且有效的。 关键词—火灾风险, 油罐区, 改进的模糊分析层 次模型, 安全评价
{"title":"Research on Fire Risk Safety Evaluation of Tank Farm based on Improved Fuzzy AHP Method","authors":"Qilei Wang, Ben-hai Li, Xifeng Kang, Fang Zhang, Chunlei Jia, Xiaoming Zhang","doi":"10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.2","url":null,"abstract":"of Tank Farm based on Improved Fuzzy AHP Method Qilei Wang, Benli Li, Xifeng Kang, Fang Zhang, Chunlei Jia, Xiaoming Zhang China People′s Police University Hebei Langfang, China 403115051@qq.com 基于改进模糊层次分析法的油罐区火灾 风险安全评价研究 王其磊,李本利,康习锋,张芳,贾春雷,张晓明 中国人民警察大学 河北 廊坊 065000 中国 403115051@qq.com Abstract-From the fire safety point of view, the impact factors and evaluation index of fire safety in tank farm are important to fire safety and fire rescue system. The tank farm fire risk assessment system was structured by multi coupling relationship of fire safety was integrated used and improved fuzzy AHP method was used in the fire safety evaluation, fire hydrant system,nitrogen cooling and evacuation system. Using expert scoring method to evaluate the index weight, and the original fuzzy analysis hierarchy model was improved. The results show that: the method reduces the weight of the evaluation subjectivity, and evaluate the overall effect is better, the results show that the model is reasonable and feasible. The improved fuzzy AHP evaluation method applied to fire risk evaluation of tank farm is practical and effective. Keywordsfire risk; tank farm; improved fuzzy AHP method; safety evaluation 摘要-从消防安全性角度对油罐区中火灾风险的影 响因素及评价指标进行分析,对消防安全及灭火救 援保障具有重要的意义。综合运用消防安全多元耦 合关系及改进模糊层次分析法对影响消防安全的 报警系统、消火栓给水系统、氮冷却系统、疏散系 统、消防队救援等的重要性及合理程度进行深入分 析,构建了油罐区火灾风险消防安全评价体系。运 用专家打分法对指标权重份数进行了评价, 并对 原有的模糊分析层次模型进行改进,对某油罐区火 灾风险进行实例验证。结果表明:该方法减少了确 定权重的主观性,评价总体效果较好,结果表明该 模型合理、可行,改进模糊层次评价方法应用于油 罐区火灾风险消防安全评价是实用且有效的。 关键词—火灾风险, 油罐区, 改进的模糊分析层 次模型, 安全评价","PeriodicalId":142201,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Fourth Symposium on Disaster Risk Analysis and Management in Chinese Littoral Regions (DRAMCLR 2019)","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130125087","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-11-01DOI: 10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.33
Wenjun Zou, Yuexin Lan, Yixue Xia, Mo Liu, Peng Zhang
邹汶君 兰月新 夏一雪 刘茉 张鹏 中国人民警察大学 廊坊 065000,中国 892955831@qq.com Abstract—In this paper, Hierarchical Holographic Modeling is adopted for risk modeling. Based on the case study of china-related public opinions in countries along the "One Belt And One Road" line, risk factors related to china-related public opinions in countries along the "One Belt And One Road" line are analyzed more comprehensively, and corresponding countermeasures are proposed according to the risk level, so as to provide a more scientific and effective decision-making reference for countries to better promote the "One Belt And One Road" initiative.
{"title":"Research on public opinion risk control of \"one belt and one road\"","authors":"Wenjun Zou, Yuexin Lan, Yixue Xia, Mo Liu, Peng Zhang","doi":"10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.33","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.33","url":null,"abstract":"邹汶君 兰月新 夏一雪 刘茉 张鹏 中国人民警察大学 廊坊 065000,中国 892955831@qq.com Abstract—In this paper, Hierarchical Holographic Modeling is adopted for risk modeling. Based on the case study of china-related public opinions in countries along the \"One Belt And One Road\" line, risk factors related to china-related public opinions in countries along the \"One Belt And One Road\" line are analyzed more comprehensively, and corresponding countermeasures are proposed according to the risk level, so as to provide a more scientific and effective decision-making reference for countries to better promote the \"One Belt And One Road\" initiative.","PeriodicalId":142201,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Fourth Symposium on Disaster Risk Analysis and Management in Chinese Littoral Regions (DRAMCLR 2019)","volume":"212 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121870588","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-11-01DOI: 10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.28
X. Xu
The construction of chemical industry park is the overall trend of the development of domestic and international chemical industry in recent years, and it is an important mode for modern chemical industry to develop circular economy and promote the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure.This paper combined with the actual situation of chemical industry park, risk management, this paper USES the integral definition of safety lifecycle theory from the park, the early stage of the risk analysis, the overall security needs, risk control requirements, the implementation of risk control, such as to improve the risk control mechanism of the park at various stages of risk management were analyzed, and on the risk management, the problems in the analysis summary, strengthen the risk management countermeasures and Suggestions are put forward. Keywords—functional safety, risk,managementt 摘要—化工园区的建设是近年来国内国际化工产业发展的 整体趋势,是现代化学工业发展循环经济、推动产业结构转型 升级的重要模式。本文结合化工园区风险管理的实际情况,采 用安全生命周期理论从园区的整体定义、前期风险分析、整体 安全需求、风险管控的要求、风险管控的实现、风险管控机制 的改进等园区风险管理的各个阶段进行分析,针对园区风险管 理中存在的问题,进行分析总结,提出加强园区风险管理的对 策和建议。 关键词—功能安全,风险,管理 I. 引言 20 世纪 40 年代初,起源于美国的化工园区因其集中 模式发展石油化学工业,逐步带动了一大批石油化学工 业聚集区,开创了世界化工园区大规模建设发展的雏形 和先河。二战结束后,其他国家借鉴美国模式,大力发展 的化工园区模式,带动了战后经济的复苏和发展[1]。我国 化工园区起步较晚,最早的一批化工园区于 20 世纪 90 年代末在长三角地区兴起。伴随着改革开放的不断深入 和经济的迅猛发展,化工园区建设也已步入快速发展通 道。 化工园区模式作为一种能源循环利用、规模经济效 益好的发展形式,因化工企业的高度聚集造成风险倍增, 自建立以来,一直受到社会各界的广泛关注。如何对化 工园区进行有效的风险管理?现阶段的研究焦点主要针 对事故预防的安全监管、事故发生过程的应急救援(以应 急装备布置和应急管理为核心)、化工园区的安全规划等。 本文提出的园区应用安全生命周期理论进行风险管理, 基本涵盖以上三方面。尤其以安全规划为主要着力点。安 全规划关系到化工园区本质安全问题,对于研究危险设 施和土地利用的安全规划对于预防事故发生、减缓事故 后果具有极其重要的现实意义。[2]化工园区安全规划技术 和方法的应用,可以为化工企业和化工园区的发展打下 良好的基础。
{"title":"Enlightenment of Safety Life Cycle Theory In Risk Management of Chemical Industry Park","authors":"X. Xu","doi":"10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.28","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.28","url":null,"abstract":"The construction of chemical industry park is the overall trend of the development of domestic and international chemical industry in recent years, and it is an important mode for modern chemical industry to develop circular economy and promote the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure.This paper combined with the actual situation of chemical industry park, risk management, this paper USES the integral definition of safety lifecycle theory from the park, the early stage of the risk analysis, the overall security needs, risk control requirements, the implementation of risk control, such as to improve the risk control mechanism of the park at various stages of risk management were analyzed, and on the risk management, the problems in the analysis summary, strengthen the risk management countermeasures and Suggestions are put forward. Keywords—functional safety, risk,managementt 摘要—化工园区的建设是近年来国内国际化工产业发展的 整体趋势,是现代化学工业发展循环经济、推动产业结构转型 升级的重要模式。本文结合化工园区风险管理的实际情况,采 用安全生命周期理论从园区的整体定义、前期风险分析、整体 安全需求、风险管控的要求、风险管控的实现、风险管控机制 的改进等园区风险管理的各个阶段进行分析,针对园区风险管 理中存在的问题,进行分析总结,提出加强园区风险管理的对 策和建议。 关键词—功能安全,风险,管理 I. 引言 20 世纪 40 年代初,起源于美国的化工园区因其集中 模式发展石油化学工业,逐步带动了一大批石油化学工 业聚集区,开创了世界化工园区大规模建设发展的雏形 和先河。二战结束后,其他国家借鉴美国模式,大力发展 的化工园区模式,带动了战后经济的复苏和发展[1]。我国 化工园区起步较晚,最早的一批化工园区于 20 世纪 90 年代末在长三角地区兴起。伴随着改革开放的不断深入 和经济的迅猛发展,化工园区建设也已步入快速发展通 道。 化工园区模式作为一种能源循环利用、规模经济效 益好的发展形式,因化工企业的高度聚集造成风险倍增, 自建立以来,一直受到社会各界的广泛关注。如何对化 工园区进行有效的风险管理?现阶段的研究焦点主要针 对事故预防的安全监管、事故发生过程的应急救援(以应 急装备布置和应急管理为核心)、化工园区的安全规划等。 本文提出的园区应用安全生命周期理论进行风险管理, 基本涵盖以上三方面。尤其以安全规划为主要着力点。安 全规划关系到化工园区本质安全问题,对于研究危险设 施和土地利用的安全规划对于预防事故发生、减缓事故 后果具有极其重要的现实意义。[2]化工园区安全规划技术 和方法的应用,可以为化工企业和化工园区的发展打下 良好的基础。","PeriodicalId":142201,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Fourth Symposium on Disaster Risk Analysis and Management in Chinese Littoral Regions (DRAMCLR 2019)","volume":"274 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131472016","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-11-01DOI: 10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.24
Zongchao Li, Xueliang Chen, Qing Wu, Changlong Li
李宗超,陈学良,吴清,李铁飞,李昌珑 中国地震局地球物理研究所 北京 100081, 中国 lizongchaoigo@163.com Abstract: On February 4, 2018, a Ms6.5 occurred in Hualien County in Taiwan Province. The source depth was 10 km. This earthquake killed 17 people and injured 285 people. The earthquake also caused huge property losses. Most of the casualties of the earthquake were caused by the collapse and damage of the buildings. The near field strong ground motion was the direct reason which caused the collapse of the building. The collapse of the buildings was greatly related to the amplitude and frequency of circulation of ground motion. The seismic response of system accumulated damage under cyclic load depends not only on the maximum amplitude of motion but also on the duration of motion. Many researchers suggest that the effective number of ground motion cycles is more reflective of seismic damage than the duration. The destructive ability of seismic ground motion depends on the amplitude of the movement and the number of cycles. In the geotechnical earthquake engineering, the number of motion cycles is the most important. Many researchers believe that the number of motion cycles is also an important factor in structural seismic design and damage assessment. Because the strength, stiffness and energy dissipation of the structure decreases with the increase of the load cycle, the amplitude itself is not sufficient to evaluate the seismic performance of the structure. In this paper, the spatial distribution characteristics of the damage index of Hualian earthquake is analyzed, and the correlation between the damage index and seismic intensity is analyzed. Keywords—damage Index, Hualian eartrhquake, characteristics analysis, seismic intensity 摘要:2018 年 2 月 4 日,台湾省花莲县附近海域(北 纬 24.2 度,东经 121.72 度)发生 6.5 级地震,震 源深度 10 千米,地震造成 17 人遇难,285 人受伤, 地震也造成了巨大的财产损失。本次地震的绝大部 分伤亡是由于建筑物倒塌破损造成的,而近场强地 震动是造成建筑物倒塌的直接原因,建筑物倒塌与 地震动的振幅和循环次数相关性极大。系统在循环 荷载下累积损伤的地震响应不仅取决于运动的最 大振幅,还取决于运动的持续时间。许多研究人员 提出,有效的地面运动周期数比持续时间更能反映 地震破坏能力。地震地面运动的破坏能力取决于运 动的振幅和循环次数。在岩土地震工程中,运动循 环次数是最重要的。许多研究人员认为,运动循环 次数也是结构抗震设计和损伤评估方面的一个重 要因素。由于结构的强度、刚度和耗能能力随着荷 载循环次数的增加而降低,因此振幅本身不足以评 估结构的抗震性能。本文将着重分析研究了花莲地 震的损伤指数的空间分布特征,并结合实际的灾害 烈度分布特征,分析了震害指数与地震烈度的相关 性。 关键词:损伤指数,花莲地震,特征分析,地震强 度
{"title":"The Damage Index Characteristics Research of Ms6.5 in Hualian County, Taiwan in 2018","authors":"Zongchao Li, Xueliang Chen, Qing Wu, Changlong Li","doi":"10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.24","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.24","url":null,"abstract":"李宗超,陈学良,吴清,李铁飞,李昌珑 中国地震局地球物理研究所 北京 100081, 中国 lizongchaoigo@163.com Abstract: On February 4, 2018, a Ms6.5 occurred in Hualien County in Taiwan Province. The source depth was 10 km. This earthquake killed 17 people and injured 285 people. The earthquake also caused huge property losses. Most of the casualties of the earthquake were caused by the collapse and damage of the buildings. The near field strong ground motion was the direct reason which caused the collapse of the building. The collapse of the buildings was greatly related to the amplitude and frequency of circulation of ground motion. The seismic response of system accumulated damage under cyclic load depends not only on the maximum amplitude of motion but also on the duration of motion. Many researchers suggest that the effective number of ground motion cycles is more reflective of seismic damage than the duration. The destructive ability of seismic ground motion depends on the amplitude of the movement and the number of cycles. In the geotechnical earthquake engineering, the number of motion cycles is the most important. Many researchers believe that the number of motion cycles is also an important factor in structural seismic design and damage assessment. Because the strength, stiffness and energy dissipation of the structure decreases with the increase of the load cycle, the amplitude itself is not sufficient to evaluate the seismic performance of the structure. In this paper, the spatial distribution characteristics of the damage index of Hualian earthquake is analyzed, and the correlation between the damage index and seismic intensity is analyzed. Keywords—damage Index, Hualian eartrhquake, characteristics analysis, seismic intensity 摘要:2018 年 2 月 4 日,台湾省花莲县附近海域(北 纬 24.2 度,东经 121.72 度)发生 6.5 级地震,震 源深度 10 千米,地震造成 17 人遇难,285 人受伤, 地震也造成了巨大的财产损失。本次地震的绝大部 分伤亡是由于建筑物倒塌破损造成的,而近场强地 震动是造成建筑物倒塌的直接原因,建筑物倒塌与 地震动的振幅和循环次数相关性极大。系统在循环 荷载下累积损伤的地震响应不仅取决于运动的最 大振幅,还取决于运动的持续时间。许多研究人员 提出,有效的地面运动周期数比持续时间更能反映 地震破坏能力。地震地面运动的破坏能力取决于运 动的振幅和循环次数。在岩土地震工程中,运动循 环次数是最重要的。许多研究人员认为,运动循环 次数也是结构抗震设计和损伤评估方面的一个重 要因素。由于结构的强度、刚度和耗能能力随着荷 载循环次数的增加而降低,因此振幅本身不足以评 估结构的抗震性能。本文将着重分析研究了花莲地 震的损伤指数的空间分布特征,并结合实际的灾害 烈度分布特征,分析了震害指数与地震烈度的相关 性。 关键词:损伤指数,花莲地震,特征分析,地震强 度","PeriodicalId":142201,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Fourth Symposium on Disaster Risk Analysis and Management in Chinese Littoral Regions (DRAMCLR 2019)","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123667816","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-11-01DOI: 10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.8
Haoyun Wu, Xinyan Wu, Yao Lu, Hongwei Li
1 山西省地震局,太原 030021,中国 7153701@qq.com 2 中国地震局地球物理研究所,北京 100081,中国 wuxy1977@sina.com Abstract—In this paper, 18 earthquake cases from 1996 to 2017 and four earthquakes cases that caused tsunami and killed more than 2,000 people since 2000 were selected in China. Statistics on the death statistics of earthquakes in Sina.com were collected. The logistic function was used to fit the data of earthquake cases. The results showed that: (1) The number of earthquake deaths was reported. There is a good correlation between the curves presented at the time and the more deaths there are, the longer it takes to determine the final number of deaths. (2) The shorter the time when the number of earthquake deaths approaches the total number, the stronger the rescue ability.(3) The data show that in the face of catastrophic earthquakes with more than 10,000 deaths, especially the huge earthquakes that caused the tsunami, relying solely on the local rescue capacity is obviously insufficient.
{"title":"Study on the Time Series Features of Earthquake and Tsunami Deaths","authors":"Haoyun Wu, Xinyan Wu, Yao Lu, Hongwei Li","doi":"10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.8","url":null,"abstract":"1 山西省地震局,太原 030021,中国 7153701@qq.com 2 中国地震局地球物理研究所,北京 100081,中国 wuxy1977@sina.com Abstract—In this paper, 18 earthquake cases from 1996 to 2017 and four earthquakes cases that caused tsunami and killed more than 2,000 people since 2000 were selected in China. Statistics on the death statistics of earthquakes in Sina.com were collected. The logistic function was used to fit the data of earthquake cases. The results showed that: (1) The number of earthquake deaths was reported. There is a good correlation between the curves presented at the time and the more deaths there are, the longer it takes to determine the final number of deaths. (2) The shorter the time when the number of earthquake deaths approaches the total number, the stronger the rescue ability.(3) The data show that in the face of catastrophic earthquakes with more than 10,000 deaths, especially the huge earthquakes that caused the tsunami, relying solely on the local rescue capacity is obviously insufficient.","PeriodicalId":142201,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Fourth Symposium on Disaster Risk Analysis and Management in Chinese Littoral Regions (DRAMCLR 2019)","volume":"86 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122283043","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-11-01DOI: 10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.41
Xueliang Chen, Jianlong Wang, M. Gao
Study of basin effect has important reference significance for future urban the planning of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction. The amplification effects of three ideal simple basin models, “square” shape, “inverted convex” shape and “curved” shape, were studied by using the finite element numerical simulation method of decoupled nearfield wave combined with transmission boundary. The results show that: 1. Two kinds of basin models, “square” and “inverted convex”, show different rules of seismic response of basin position along with the depth of basin: the square basin model shows similar characteristics to the existing site response, while the calculation results of inverted convex basin model are more fit our existing basin knowledge. Therefore, it is not appropriate to study the amplification effect of basin earthquake ground motion only by using simple “square” basin model. 2. The seismic response of a more realistic "curved-edge" basin model is studied. The calculation results of the symmetric model show good regularity. A relatively large seismic response occurs in the center of the basin, which reflects the role of the “focusing effect” of the basin. The asymmetric basin model is located in the center of the basin and at the edge of the basin. Greater ground motion responses have been observed on both sides of the basin, even on the steeper edge of the basin, which is related to the “edge effect” of the basin; with the softening of the medium in the basin, the ground motion responses of the site in the basin gradually increase; with the increase of the stratification of the medium in the basin, the ground motion responses of the basin are larger. On the whole, the seismic response also tends to increase gradually, but there are also large differences in some locations of the basin, which reflects the complexity of the amplification effect of the seismic basin. Keywords—Basin amplification effect; basin models; numerical simulation; SH pulse waves, data analysis 摘要—盆地放大效应研究对于未来城市的防震减灾规划, 具有重要的参考意义。利用结合透射边界的解耦近场波动有 限元数值模拟方法,以 SH 波的形式在模型底部垂直入射δ脉 冲波和 Ricker 脉冲波,对二维“方形”,“倒凸形”和“曲 边形”三种理想简单盆地模型的放大效应进行了研究,结果 表明:1.“方形”和“倒凸形”两种盆地模型中盆地场点的 地震动响应随场点盆地深度的变化,表现出了不同的规律: “方形”盆地模型表现出了与现有场地反应相类似的特征, 而“倒凸形”盆地模型的计算结果则更符合我们现有对于盆 地放大效应的认识,因此,仅用简单的“方形”盆地模型进 行地震动盆地放大效应的研究是不太合适的。2.对更接近实 际的“曲边形”盆地模型的地震动响应进行了研究,对称模 型的计算结果展示了很好的规律性,在盆地中央位置出现比 较大的地震动响应,体现了盆地“聚焦效应”的作用;非对 称盆地模型在盆地中央和盆地边缘处均出现了比较大的地震 动响应,在较陡的一侧边缘,甚至出现了比盆地中央更大的 地震动响应,这与盆地的“边缘效应”有关;随着盆地内介 质变软,盆地内场点的地震动响应逐渐变大;随着盆地内介 质分层的增加,盆地的地震动响应整体上也有逐渐增大的趋 势,但在盆地内的一些位置也出现了比较大的差异,体现了 地震动盆地放大效应的复杂性。 关键词—盆地放大效应,盆地模型,数值模拟,SH 波
{"title":"Preliminary Study on Basin Amplification Effect for Vertical Incidence of Two Kinds SH Pulse Waves","authors":"Xueliang Chen, Jianlong Wang, M. Gao","doi":"10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.41","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.41","url":null,"abstract":"Study of basin effect has important reference significance for future urban the planning of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction. The amplification effects of three ideal simple basin models, “square” shape, “inverted convex” shape and “curved” shape, were studied by using the finite element numerical simulation method of decoupled nearfield wave combined with transmission boundary. The results show that: 1. Two kinds of basin models, “square” and “inverted convex”, show different rules of seismic response of basin position along with the depth of basin: the square basin model shows similar characteristics to the existing site response, while the calculation results of inverted convex basin model are more fit our existing basin knowledge. Therefore, it is not appropriate to study the amplification effect of basin earthquake ground motion only by using simple “square” basin model. 2. The seismic response of a more realistic \"curved-edge\" basin model is studied. The calculation results of the symmetric model show good regularity. A relatively large seismic response occurs in the center of the basin, which reflects the role of the “focusing effect” of the basin. The asymmetric basin model is located in the center of the basin and at the edge of the basin. Greater ground motion responses have been observed on both sides of the basin, even on the steeper edge of the basin, which is related to the “edge effect” of the basin; with the softening of the medium in the basin, the ground motion responses of the site in the basin gradually increase; with the increase of the stratification of the medium in the basin, the ground motion responses of the basin are larger. On the whole, the seismic response also tends to increase gradually, but there are also large differences in some locations of the basin, which reflects the complexity of the amplification effect of the seismic basin. Keywords—Basin amplification effect; basin models; numerical simulation; SH pulse waves, data analysis 摘要—盆地放大效应研究对于未来城市的防震减灾规划, 具有重要的参考意义。利用结合透射边界的解耦近场波动有 限元数值模拟方法,以 SH 波的形式在模型底部垂直入射δ脉 冲波和 Ricker 脉冲波,对二维“方形”,“倒凸形”和“曲 边形”三种理想简单盆地模型的放大效应进行了研究,结果 表明:1.“方形”和“倒凸形”两种盆地模型中盆地场点的 地震动响应随场点盆地深度的变化,表现出了不同的规律: “方形”盆地模型表现出了与现有场地反应相类似的特征, 而“倒凸形”盆地模型的计算结果则更符合我们现有对于盆 地放大效应的认识,因此,仅用简单的“方形”盆地模型进 行地震动盆地放大效应的研究是不太合适的。2.对更接近实 际的“曲边形”盆地模型的地震动响应进行了研究,对称模 型的计算结果展示了很好的规律性,在盆地中央位置出现比 较大的地震动响应,体现了盆地“聚焦效应”的作用;非对 称盆地模型在盆地中央和盆地边缘处均出现了比较大的地震 动响应,在较陡的一侧边缘,甚至出现了比盆地中央更大的 地震动响应,这与盆地的“边缘效应”有关;随着盆地内介 质变软,盆地内场点的地震动响应逐渐变大;随着盆地内介 质分层的增加,盆地的地震动响应整体上也有逐渐增大的趋 势,但在盆地内的一些位置也出现了比较大的差异,体现了 地震动盆地放大效应的复杂性。 关键词—盆地放大效应,盆地模型,数值模拟,SH 波","PeriodicalId":142201,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Fourth Symposium on Disaster Risk Analysis and Management in Chinese Littoral Regions (DRAMCLR 2019)","volume":"160 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132481507","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-11-01DOI: 10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.42
Wei Dou, Hongzhou Zhang, Xingtao Zhao, Zhiguo Du, Peiyue Li
—From the point of view of the demand of public security application for video information application, this paper compares the characteristics of traditional video surveillance system with that of urban public security video surveillance system, analyses the factors affecting the effectiveness evaluation of video surveillance system, and puts forward the evaluation index set for evaluating video information collection. On this basis, this paper establishes a risk entropy model of public security video surveillance system, and divides the risk of application of video surveillance system into the risk related to fixed target, the risk related to moving target and the risk related to image information quality satisfaction. Among them, the risk related to the moving target can be further divided into the self-risk of the target and the coupling risk between the goals, which are often related to the occurrence of the case or event. The risk entropy model of video surveillance proposed in this paper can be used to evaluate the application efficiency of video surveillance system and guide the layout of video surveillance system in a region.
{"title":"Risk Entropy Model of Public Security Video Surveillance System","authors":"Wei Dou, Hongzhou Zhang, Xingtao Zhao, Zhiguo Du, Peiyue Li","doi":"10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.42","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.42","url":null,"abstract":"—From the point of view of the demand of public security application for video information application, this paper compares the characteristics of traditional video surveillance system with that of urban public security video surveillance system, analyses the factors affecting the effectiveness evaluation of video surveillance system, and puts forward the evaluation index set for evaluating video information collection. On this basis, this paper establishes a risk entropy model of public security video surveillance system, and divides the risk of application of video surveillance system into the risk related to fixed target, the risk related to moving target and the risk related to image information quality satisfaction. Among them, the risk related to the moving target can be further divided into the self-risk of the target and the coupling risk between the goals, which are often related to the occurrence of the case or event. The risk entropy model of video surveillance proposed in this paper can be used to evaluate the application efficiency of video surveillance system and guide the layout of video surveillance system in a region.","PeriodicalId":142201,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Fourth Symposium on Disaster Risk Analysis and Management in Chinese Littoral Regions (DRAMCLR 2019)","volume":"76 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116764936","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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