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Modeling Interaction in Collaborative Groups: Affect Control Within Social Structure 协作群体中的互动建模:社会结构中的影响控制
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.18564/jasss.4699
Nikolas Zöller, Jonathan H. Morgan, T. Schröder
This paper studies the dynamics of identity and status management within groups in collaborative settings. We present an agent-based simulation model for group interaction rooted in social psychological theory. The model integrates a ect control theory with networked interaction structures and sequential behavior protocols as they are o en encountered in task groups. By expressing status hierarchy through network structure, we build a bridge between expectation states theory and a ect control theory, and are able to reproduce central results from the expectation states research program in sociological social psychology. Furthermore, we demonstrate how themodel can be applied to analyze specialized task groups or sub-cultural domains by combining it with empirical data sources. As an example, we simulate groups of open-source so ware developers and analyze how cultural expectations influence the occupancy of high status positions in these groups.
本文研究了协作环境下群体内身份和地位管理的动态。我们提出了一个基于社会心理学理论的基于主体的群体互动模拟模型。该模型将网络控制理论与网络交互结构和顺序行为协议相结合,因为它们在任务组中经常遇到。通过网络结构表达身份等级,我们在期望状态理论和情感控制理论之间搭建了一座桥梁,并能够再现社会学社会心理学中期望状态研究项目的核心成果。此外,我们展示了如何将该模型与经验数据源相结合,应用于分析专门的任务组或亚文化领域。作为一个例子,我们模拟了开源软件开发人员的群体,并分析了文化期望如何影响这些群体中高级职位的占据。
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引用次数: 2
Justified Stories with Agent-Based Modelling for Local COVID-19 Planning 基于agent的本地COVID-19规划模型
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.18564/jasss.4532
J. Badham, Peter Barbrook-Johnson, C. Caiado, B. Castellani
This paper presents JuSt-Social, an agent-based model of the COVID-19 epidemic with a range of potential social policy interventions It was developed to support local authorities in North East England who are making decisions in a fast moving crisis with limited access to data The proximate purpose of JuSt-Social is description, as the model represents knowledge about both COVID-19 transmission and intervention effects Its ultimate purpose is to generate stories that respond to the questions and concerns of local planners and policy makers and are justified by the quality of the representation These justified stories organise the knowledge in way that is accessible, timely and useful at the local level, assisting the decision makers to better understand both their current situation and the plausible outcomes of policy alternatives JuSt-Social and the concept of justified stories apply to the modelling of infectious disease in general and, even more broadly, modelling in public health, particularly for policy interventions in complex systems © 2021, University of Surrey All rights reserved
本文介绍了JuSt-Social,这是一种基于主体的COVID-19流行病模型,具有一系列潜在的社会政策干预措施。它的开发是为了支持英格兰东北部的地方当局在快速发展的危机中做出决策,而数据获取有限。由于该模型代表了关于COVID-19传播和干预影响的知识,其最终目的是生成能够回应当地规划者和政策制定者的问题和关切的故事,并通过代表的质量证明这些故事是合理的。这些经过证明的故事以可获取、及时和在地方一级有用的方式组织知识。协助决策者更好地了解其现状和政策替代方案的可能结果JuSt-Social和合理故事的概念适用于一般传染病建模,甚至更广泛地适用于公共卫生建模,特别是复杂系统中的政策干预©2021,萨里大学版权所有
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引用次数: 9
Hard Work, Risk-Taking, and Diversity in a Model of Collective Problem Solving 集体解决问题模式中的努力工作、冒险和多样性
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.18564/jasss.4704
Amin Boroomand, P. Smaldino
We studied an agent-based model of collective problem solving in which teams of agents search on an NK landscape and share information about newly found solutions. We analyzed the e ects of team members’ behavioral strategies, team size, and team diversity on overall performance. Depending on the landscape complexity and a team’s features a teammay eventually find the best possible solution or become trapped at a local maximum. Hard-working agents can explore more solutions per unit time, while risk-taking agents inject randomness in the solutions they test. We found that when teams solve complex problems, both strategies (risk-taking and hard work) have positive impacts on the final score, and the positive e ect of moderate risktaking is substantial. However, risk-taking has a negative e ect on how quickly a team achieves its final score. If time restrictions can be relaxed, a moderate level of risk can produce an improved score. If the highest priority is instead to achieve the best possible score in the shortest amount of time, the hard work strategy has the greatest impact. When problems are simpler, risk-taking behavior has a negative e ect on performance, while hard work decreases the time required to solve the problem. We also find that larger teams generally solved problems more e ectively, and that some of this positive e ect is due to the increase in diversity. We showmore generally that increasing the diversity of teams has a positive impact on the team’s final score, while morediverse teamsalso require less time to reach their final solution. Thiswork contributesoverall to the larger literature on collective problem solving in teams.
我们研究了一个基于代理的集体问题解决模型,其中代理团队在NK景观上搜索并共享有关新发现的解决方案的信息。我们分析了团队成员的行为策略、团队规模和团队多样性对整体绩效的影响。根据环境的复杂性和团队的特点,团队最终可能会找到最好的解决方案,或者陷入局部最大值。勤奋的智能体可以在单位时间内探索更多的解决方案,而冒险的智能体则在他们测试的解决方案中注入随机性。我们发现,当团队解决复杂问题时,两种策略(冒险和努力)对最终得分都有积极影响,适度冒险的积极影响是实质性的。然而,冒险对球队达到最终得分的速度有负面影响。如果时间限制可以放宽,中等程度的风险可以提高分数。如果最重要的是在最短的时间内取得尽可能好的成绩,那么努力学习的策略就会产生最大的影响。当问题比较简单时,冒险行为会对表现产生负面影响,而努力工作则会减少解决问题所需的时间。我们还发现,较大的团队通常更有效地解决问题,其中一些积极的影响是由于多样性的增加。我们更普遍地表明,增加团队的多样性对团队的最终得分有积极的影响,而更多样化的团队也需要更少的时间来达到他们的最终解决方案。总的来说,这项工作对团队中集体解决问题的更大的文献有所贡献。
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引用次数: 5
Comparing Mechanisms of Food Choice in an Agent-Based Model of Milk Consumption and Substitution in the UK 英国基于主体的牛奶消费与替代模型中的食物选择机制比较
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.18564/jasss.4637
Matthew Gibson, R. Slade, J. Pereira, J. Rogelj
: Substitution of food products will be key to realising widespread adoption of sustainable diets. We present an agent-based model of decision-making and influences on food choice, and apply it to historically observed trends of British whole and skimmed (including semi) milk consumption from 1974 to 2005. We aim to give a plausible representation of milk choice substitution, and test different mechanisms of choice consideration. Agents are consumers that perceive information regarding the two milk choices, and hold values that inform their position on the health and environmental impact of those choices. Habit, social influence and post-decision evaluation are modelled. Representative survey data on human values and long-running public concerns empirically inform the model. An experiment was run to compare two model variants by how they perform in reproducing these trends. This was measured by recording mean weekly milk consumption per person. The variants differed in how agents became disposed to consider alternative milk choices. One followed a threshold approach, the other was probability based. All other model aspects remained unchanged. An optimisation exercise via an evolutionary algorithm was used to calibrate the model variants independently to observed data. Following calibration, uncertainty and global variance-based temporal sensitivity analysis were conducted. Both model variants were able to reproduce the general pattern of historical milk consumption, however, the probability-based approach gave a closer fit to the observed data, but over a wider range of uncertainty. This responds to, and further highlights, the need for research that looks at, and compares, different models of human decision-making in agent-based and simulation models. This study is the first to present an agent-based modelling of food choice substitution in the context of British milk consumption. It can serve as a valuable pre-curser to the modelling of dietary shift and sustainable product substitution to plant-based alternatives in Britain.
:替代食品将是实现可持续饮食广泛采用的关键。我们提出了一个基于主体的决策模型和对食物选择的影响,并将其应用于1974年至2005年英国全脂和脱脂(包括半脱脂)牛奶消费的历史趋势。我们的目标是给出牛奶选择替代的合理表示,并测试不同的选择考虑机制。代理人是了解两种牛奶选择信息的消费者,并持有告知他们对这些选择对健康和环境影响的立场的价值观。习惯,社会影响和决策后评价建模。关于人类价值观和长期公众关注的代表性调查数据为模型提供了经验信息。进行了一项实验,比较两种模型变体在再现这些趋势方面的表现。这是通过记录每人每周平均牛奶消费量来衡量的。这些变体在代理人如何倾向于考虑替代牛奶选择方面有所不同。一种是阈值法,另一种是基于概率法。所有其他模型方面保持不变。通过进化算法进行优化练习,用于根据观测数据独立校准模型变量。校准后,进行了不确定度和基于全局方差的时间敏感性分析。两种模型变体都能够再现历史牛奶消费的一般模式,然而,基于概率的方法更接近观察到的数据,但不确定性范围更大。这回应并进一步强调了研究和比较基于代理和模拟模型的不同人类决策模型的需求。这项研究首次提出了基于主体的英国牛奶消费背景下的食物选择替代模型。它可以作为英国饮食转变和可持续产品替代到植物性替代品的建模的有价值的前兆。
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引用次数: 2
The Role of Mistrust in the Modelling of Opinion Adoption 不信任在意见采纳模型中的作用
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.18564/jasss.4624
J. Adams, Gentry White, Robyn P. Araujo
Societies tend to partition into factions based on shared beliefs, leading to sectarian conflict in society. This paper investigatesmistrust as a cause for this partitioningby extending an establishedopiniondynamics model with Bayesian updating that specifies mistrust as the underlying mechanism for disagreement and, ultimately, polarisation. We demonstrate that mistrust is at the foundation of polarisation. Detailed analysis and the results of rigorous simulation studies provide new insight into the potential role ofmistrust in polarisation. We show that consensus results whenmistrust levels are low, but introducing extreme agentsmakes consensus significantly harder to reach and highly fragmented and dispersed. These results also suggest amethod to verify the model using real-world experimental or observational data empirically.
社会往往会因为共同的信仰而分裂成不同的派别,从而导致社会中的宗派冲突。本文通过扩展已建立的意见动力学模型,并使用贝叶斯更新来研究不信任作为这种划分的原因,该模型将不信任指定为分歧和最终两极分化的潜在机制。我们表明,不信任是两极分化的基础。详细的分析和严格的模拟研究结果为不信任在两极分化中的潜在作用提供了新的见解。我们表明,当不信任水平较低时,会产生共识,但引入极端代理会使共识更难达成,并且高度碎片化和分散。这些结果还提出了利用实际实验或观测数据对模型进行实证验证的方法。
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引用次数: 5
Integrating Qualitative and Social Science Factors in Archaeological Modelling by Mehdi Saqalli and Marc Vander Linden (Eds.) 整合定性和社会科学因素在考古建模迈赫迪萨卡利和马克范德林登(编)
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-12723-7
Dries Daems
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引用次数: 12
Using Agent-Based Modelling to Assess Scenarios for Enhanced Soil and Water Conservation in the Boset District, Ethiopia 利用基于主体的模型评估埃塞俄比亚博塞特地区加强水土保持的情景
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.18564/jasss.4714
S. Assefa, Aad Kessler, L. Fleskens
Thesustainabilityof theongoingCampaign-BasedWatershedManagement (CBWM)programinEthiopia is questionable due to poor planning and implementation of the Soil andWater Conservation (SWC) structures. This study uses an empirically based, agent-based model to explore the e ect of six scenarios on both area of land covered by, as well as the quality of SWC structures in three Kebeles (villages) of Boset District. The analysis revealed that integratingmultiple interventions enhanced SWCmost in all Kebeles. Furthermore, increasing the commitment of local government through capacity building generated most e ect and yet required the lowest investment. Motivating farmers, introducing alternative livelihood opportunities and establishing and strengtheningmicro-watershed associations had limited, but di erential influence on the outcomes across the Kebeles. However, all alternative scenarios had someadded value compared todoingbusiness as usual. Hence, in order to enhance the outcomes and sustainability of the ongoing CBWMprogram in the study area and other similar localities, it is crucial to pay much more attention to increasing the commitment of local government actors throughcapacity building. This empowers local government actors to (1) planandmoree iciently implement the program in consultation with other local actors, and (2) integrate locally sensitive need-based adaptation of the program.
埃塞俄比亚正在进行的基于运动的流域管理(CBWM)项目的可持续性受到质疑,原因是水土保持(SWC)结构的规划和实施不佳。本研究采用基于实证的agent模型,探讨了六种情景对Boset区三个Kebeles(村)土地覆盖面积和SWC结构质量的影响。分析显示,综合多种干预措施对所有Kebeles的swc提高最大。此外,通过能力建设增加地方政府的承诺产生了最大的效果,但所需的投资却最少。激励农民、引入替代生计机会以及建立和加强微流域协会对整个Kebeles地区的结果产生了有限的、但有差异的影响。然而,与一切照旧相比,所有替代方案都有一些附加价值。因此,为了提高研究地区和其他类似地区正在进行的生化武器项目的成果和可持续性,至关重要的是要更加重视通过能力建设增加地方政府行为体的承诺。这使地方政府行为体能够(1)与其他地方行为体协商规划并更有效地实施该计划,以及(2)根据当地需求对该计划进行调整。
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引用次数: 0
Long-Term Dynamics of Institutions: Using ABM as a Complementary Tool to Support Theory Development in Historical Studies 制度的长期动态:利用ABM作为支持历史研究理论发展的补充工具
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.18564/jasss.4706
M. Dehkordi, A. Ghorbani, Giangiacomo Bravo, M. Farjam, R. V. Weeren, Anders Forsman, T. Moor
: Historical data are valuable resources for providing insights into general sociological patterns in the past. However, thesedataofteninformusatthemacro-levelofanalysisbutnotabouttheroleofindividuals’behavioursin the emergence of long-term patterns. Therefore, it is difficult to infer ‘how’ and ‘why’ certain patterns emerged in the past. Historians use various methods to draw hypotheses about the underlying reasons for emerging patterns and trends, but since the patterns are the results of hundreds if not thousands of years of human behaviour, these hypotheses can never be tested in reality. Our proposition is that simulation models and specifically, agent-based models (ABMs) can be used as complementary tools in historical studies to support hypothesis building. The approach that we propose and test in this paper is to design and configure models in such a way as to generate historical patterns, consequently aiming to find individual-level explanations for the emerging pattern. In this work, we use an existing, empirically validated, agent-based model of common pool resource management to test hypotheses formulated based on a historical dataset. We first investigate whether the model can replicate various patterns observed in the dataset, and second, whether it can contribute to a better understanding of the underlying mechanism that led to the observed empirical trends. We showcase how ABM can be used as a complementary tool to support theory development in historical studies. Finally, we provide some guidelines for using ABM as a tool to test historical hypotheses
历史数据是洞察过去一般社会学模式的宝贵资源。然而,这些数据通常是宏观层面的分析,而不是关于长期模式出现时个人行为的信息。因此,很难推断过去某些模式是“如何”和“为什么”出现的。历史学家使用各种方法对新出现的模式和趋势的潜在原因提出假设,但由于这些模式是数百年(如果不是数千年的话)人类行为的结果,因此这些假设永远无法在现实中得到验证。我们的主张是,仿真模型,特别是基于主体的模型(ABMs)可以作为历史研究的补充工具,以支持假设的建立。我们在本文中提出和测试的方法是以这样一种方式来设计和配置模型,以生成历史模式,从而旨在为新出现的模式找到个人层面的解释。在这项工作中,我们使用一个现有的、经验验证的、基于代理的公共池资源管理模型来检验基于历史数据集制定的假设。我们首先研究了该模型是否可以复制数据集中观察到的各种模式,其次,它是否有助于更好地理解导致观察到的经验趋势的潜在机制。我们展示了如何将ABM作为一种辅助工具来支持历史研究中的理论发展。最后,我们提供了一些使用ABM作为工具来检验历史假设的指导方针
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引用次数: 0
Social Network Metric-Based Interventions? Experiments with an Agent-Based Model of the COVID-19 Pandemic in a Metropolitan Region 基于社会网络指标的干预措施?基于agent的大都市地区COVID-19大流行模型实验
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.18564/jasss.4571
B. Vermeulen, Matthias Mueller, A. Pyka
We present and use an agent-based model to study interventions for suppression, mitigation, and vaccination in coping with the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike metapopulation models, our agent-based model permits experimenting with micro-level interventions in social interactions at individual sites. We compare common macro-level interventions applicable to everyone (e.g., keep distance, close all schools) to targeted interventions in the social network spanned by households based on specific (potential) transmission rates (e.g., prohibit visiting spreading hubs or bridging ties). We show that, in the simulation environment, micro-level measures of 'locking' of a number of households and 'blocking' access to a number of sites (e.g., workplaces, schools, recreation areas) using social network centrality metrics permits refined control on the positioning on the immunity-mortality curve. In simulation results, social network metric-based vaccination of households offers refined control and reduces the spread saliently better than random vaccination.
我们提出并使用基于主体的模型来研究抑制、缓解和接种疫苗的干预措施,以应对COVID-19大流行。与元人口模型不同,我们的基于主体的模型允许在个别地点的社会互动中进行微观干预实验。我们比较了适用于每个人的常见宏观层面干预措施(例如,保持距离,关闭所有学校)与基于特定(潜在)传播率(例如,禁止访问传播中心或桥接关系)的家庭跨越的社会网络中的有针对性干预措施。我们表明,在模拟环境中,使用社交网络中心性指标“锁定”一些家庭和“阻止”进入一些地点(例如,工作场所、学校、娱乐场所)的微观层面措施允许对免疫-死亡率曲线上的定位进行精细控制。在模拟结果中,基于社会网络指标的家庭疫苗接种比随机疫苗接种提供了更精细的控制,并显着降低了传播。
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引用次数: 8
Sustaining Collective Action in Urban Community Gardens 在城市社区花园中维持集体行动
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.18564/jasss.4506
Arthur Feinberg, Elena Hooijschuur, Nicole Rogge, A. Ghorbani, P. Herder
This paper presents an agent-based model that explores the conditions for ongoing participation in community gardening projects. We test the e ects of Ostrom’s well-known Design Principles for collective action anduse an extensive database collected in 123 cases inGermany and two case studies in theNetherlands to validate it. Themodel uses the Institutional Analysis andDevelopment (IAD) framework and integrates decision mechanisms derived from the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA). This allows the analysis of volunteer participation in urban community gardens over time, based on the garden’s institutions (Design Principles) and the volunteer’s intention to join gardening. This intention is influenced by the volunteer’s expectations and past experiences in the garden (TRA). We find that not all Design Principles lead to higher levels of participation but rather, participation depends on specific combinations of the Design Principles. We highlight the need to update the assumption about sanctioning in such systems: sanctioning is not always beneficial, and may be counter-productive in certain contexts.
本文提出了一个基于主体的模型,探索持续参与社区园艺项目的条件。我们测试了奥斯特罗姆著名的集体行动设计原则的效果,并使用了一个广泛的数据库,收集了123个德国案例和两个荷兰案例来验证它。该模型采用制度分析与发展(IAD)框架,并整合了源自理性行为理论(TRA)的决策机制。这可以根据花园的机构(设计原则)和志愿者加入园艺的意图,分析志愿者在城市社区花园中的参与情况。这种意向受到志愿者的期望和过去在花园里的经验(TRA)的影响。我们发现并不是所有的设计原则都会导致更高水平的参与,而是,参与取决于设计原则的具体组合。我们强调有必要更新这类制度中关于制裁的假设:制裁并不总是有益的,在某些情况下可能适得其反。
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引用次数: 5
期刊
J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul.
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