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On the Interplay Among Multiple Factors: Effects of Factor Configuration in a Proof-Of-Concept Migration Agent-Based Model 多因素间的相互作用:基于概念验证的迁移代理模型中因素配置的影响
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.18564/jasss.4793
W. S. Oh, Alvaro Carmona-Cabrero, R. Muñoz‐Carpena, R. Muneepeerakul
Many researchers haveaddressedwhat factors shouldbe included in theirmodels of couplednaturalhuman systems (CNHSs). However, few studies have explored how these factors should be incorporated (factor configuration). Theoretical underpinning of the factor configurationmay lead to a better understanding of systematic patterns and sustainable CNHSmanagement. In particular, we ask: (1) can factor configuration explain CNHS behaviors based on its theoretical implications? and (2) when disturbed by shocks, do CNHSs respond di erently under varying factor configurations? A proof-of-concept migration agent-based model (ABM) was developed and used as a platform to investigate the e ects of factor configuration on system dynamics and outcomes. Here, two factors, social ties andwater availability, were assumed to have alternative substitutable, complementary, or adaptable relationships in influencing migration decisions. We analyzed how populations are distributed over di erent regions along a water availability gradient and how regions are culturally mixed under di erent factor configurations. We also subjected the system to a shock scenario of dropping 50% of water availability in one region. We found that substitutability acted as a bu er against the e ect of water deficiency and prevented cultural mixing of the population by keeping residents in their home regions and slowing down residential responses against the shock. Complementarity led to the sensitivemigration behavior of residents, accelerating regionalmigration and cultural mixing. Adaptability caused residents to stay longer in new regions, which gradually led to a well-mixed cultural condition. All together, substitutability, complementarity, and adaptability gave rise to di erent emergent patterns. Our findings highlight the importance of how, not just what, factors are included in a CNHS ABM, a lesson that is particularly applicable tomodels of interdisciplinary problems where factors of diverse nature must be incorporated.
许多研究人员已经解决了在他们的耦合自然人类系统(CNHSs)模型中应该包括哪些因素。然而,很少有研究探讨这些因素应该如何被纳入(因素配置)。因子配置的理论基础可能有助于更好地理解系统模式和可持续的cnhs管理。我们特别要问的是:(1)因子配置是否可以基于其理论含义来解释CNHS行为?(2)当受到冲击干扰时,cnhs在不同因子配置下的响应是否不同?开发了一个基于迁移代理的概念验证模型(ABM),并将其作为研究因素配置对系统动力学和结果的影响的平台。在这里,两个因素,社会关系和水的可用性,被认为在影响迁移决策方面具有可替代、互补或适应性的关系。我们分析了不同地区的人口是如何沿着水可用性梯度分布的,以及不同因素配置下不同地区的文化混合情况。我们还让系统承受一个地区可用水量下降50%的冲击情景。我们发现,可替代性对缺水的影响起到了抑制作用,并通过将居民留在其家乡地区和减缓居民对冲击的反应来防止人口的文化混合。互补性导致居民的敏感迁移行为,加速了区域迁移和文化融合。适应性使居民在新的地区停留的时间更长,这逐渐导致了一个良好的混合文化状况。总之,可替代性、互补性和适应性产生了不同的涌现模式。我们的研究结果强调了如何,而不仅仅是什么因素被纳入CNHS ABM的重要性,这一教训特别适用于跨学科问题的模型,因为跨学科问题必须纳入不同性质的因素。
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引用次数: 2
Arguments as Drivers of Issue Polarisation in Debates Among Artificial Agents 争论是人工智能体辩论中问题两极分化的驱动因素
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.18564/jasss.4767
Felix Kopecky
Canargumentsand theirproperties influence thedevelopmentof issuepolarisation indebatesamong artificial agents? This paper presents an agent-based model of debates with logical constraints based on the theory of dialectical structures. Simulations on thismodel reveal that the exchange of arguments can drive polarisation evenwithout social influence, and that the usage of di erent argumentation strategies can influence the obtained levels of polarisation.
论点及其性质能否影响人工智能体之间问题极化辩论的发展?本文以辩证结构理论为基础,提出了一种基于主体的逻辑约束辩论模型。对该模型的模拟表明,即使没有社会影响,争论的交换也可以驱动极化,并且不同辩论策略的使用会影响所获得的极化水平。
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引用次数: 3
Structural Effects of Agent Heterogeneity in Agent-Based Models: Lessons from the Social Spread of COVID-19 基于Agent的模型中Agent异质性的结构效应:来自COVID-19社会传播的教训
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.18564/jasss.4868
D. Reeves, Nicholas Willems, V. Shastry, V. Rai
Modeling human behavior in the context of social systems in which we are embedded realistically requires capturing the underlying heterogeneity in human populations. However, trade-offs associated with different approaches to introducing heterogeneity could either enhance or obfuscate our understanding of outcomes and the processes by which they are generated. Thus, the question arises: how to incorporate heterogeneity when modeling human behavior as part of population-scale phenomena such that greater understanding is obtained? We use an agent-based model to compare techniques of introducing heterogeneity at initialization or generated during the model’s runtime. We show that initializations with unstructured heterogeneity can interfere with a structural understanding of emergent processes, especially when structural heterogeneity might be a key part of driving how behavioral responses dynamically shape emergence in the system. We find that incorporating empirical population heterogeneity – even in a limited sense – can substantially contribute to improved understanding of how the system under study works. © 2022, University of Surrey. All rights reserved.
在我们实际所处的社会系统背景下对人类行为进行建模,需要捕捉人类群体中潜在的异质性。然而,与引入异质性的不同方法相关的权衡可能会增强或混淆我们对结果及其产生过程的理解。因此,问题出现了:如何在将人类行为建模为人口规模现象的一部分时纳入异质性,从而获得更好的理解?我们使用基于代理的模型来比较在初始化时引入异构或在模型运行时生成异构的技术。我们表明,具有非结构化异质性的初始化可能会干扰对紧急过程的结构性理解,特别是当结构异质性可能是驱动行为反应如何动态塑造系统中出现的关键部分时。我们发现,纳入实证人口异质性——即使在有限的意义上——可以大大有助于提高对所研究系统如何运作的理解。©2022,萨里大学。版权所有。
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引用次数: 0
Particle Swarm Optimization for Calibration in Spatially Explicit Agent-Based Modeling 基于空间显式智能体建模的粒子群校正算法
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.18564/jasss.4796
Alexander Michels, Jeon-Young Kang, Shaowen Wang
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引用次数: 0
Sharing Risk Under Heterogeneity: Exploring Participation Patterns in Situations of Incomplete Information 异质性下的风险分担:不完全信息下的参与模式探索
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.18564/jasss.4789
E. Vriens, V. Buskens
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引用次数: 0
Generation of Synthetic Populations in Social Simulations: A Review of Methods and Practices 社会模拟中合成种群的生成:方法与实践综述
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.18564/jasss.4762
Kevin Chapuis, P. Taillandier, A. Drogoul
: To build realistic models of social systems, designers of agent-based models tend to incorporate a considerable amount of data, which influence the model outcomes. Data concerning the attributes of social agents, which compose synthetic populations, are particularly important but usually difficult to collect and therefore use in simulations. In this paper, we have reviewed state of the art methodologies and theories for building realistic synthetic populations for agent-based simulation models and practices in social simulations. We also highlight the discrepancies between theory and practice and outline the challenges in bridging this gap through a quantitative and narrative review of work published in JASSS between 2011 and 2021. Finally, we present several recommendations that could help modellers adopt best practices for synthetic population generation.
:为了建立社会系统的现实模型,基于主体的模型的设计者倾向于纳入相当数量的数据,这些数据会影响模型的结果。关于构成合成种群的社会行动者属性的数据特别重要,但通常难以收集,因此难以在模拟中使用。在本文中,我们回顾了为基于智能体的模拟模型和社会模拟实践构建现实合成群体的最新方法和理论。我们还强调了理论与实践之间的差异,并通过对2011年至2021年在JASSS上发表的工作进行定量和叙述性审查,概述了弥合这一差距所面临的挑战。最后,我们提出了一些建议,可以帮助建模者采用合成种群生成的最佳实践。
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引用次数: 6
A Bad Barrel Spoils a Good Apple: How Uncertainty and Networks Affect Whether Matching Rules Can Foster Cooperation 坏桶坏了好苹果:不确定性和网络如何影响匹配规则能否促进合作
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.18564/jasss.4754
Carlos A. de Matos Fernandes, A. Flache, Dieko M. Bakker, J. Dijkstra
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引用次数: 0
How Culture Influences the Management of a Pandemic: A Simulation of the COVID-19 Crisis 文化如何影响流行病管理:COVID-19危机的模拟
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.18564/jasss.4877
Kurt Kruelen, B. de Bruin, A. Ghorbani, René Mellema, C. Kammler, Loïs Vanhée, Virginia Dignum, F. Dignum
Since its first appearance in Wuhan (China), countries have been employing, to varying degrees of success, a series of non-pharmaceutical interventions aimed at limiting the spread of SARS-CoV-2 within their populations. In this article, we build on scientific work that demonstrates that culture is part of the explanation for the observed variability between countries in their ability to effectively control the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. We present a theoretical framework of how culture influences decision-making at the level of the individual. This conceptualization is formalized in an agent-based model that simulates how cultural factors can combine to produce differences across populations in terms of the behavioral responses of individuals to the COVID-19 crisis. We illustrate that, within our simulated environment, the culturally-dependent willingness of people to comply with public health related measures might constitute an important determinant of differences in infection dynamics across populations. Our model generates the highest rates of non-compliance within cultures marked as individualist, progressive and egalitarian. Our model illustrates the potential role of culture as a population-level predictor of infections associated with COVID-19. In doing so, the model, and theoretical framework on which it is based, may inform future studies aimed at incorporating the effect of culture on individual decision-making processes during a pandemic within social simulation models. © 2022, University of Surrey. All rights reserved.
自SARS-CoV-2首次在(中国)武汉出现以来,各国一直在采取一系列旨在限制其人群中传播的非药物干预措施,并取得了不同程度的成功。在本文中,我们以科学工作为基础,证明文化是解释各国有效控制SARS-CoV-2传播能力差异的部分原因。我们提出了文化如何影响个人决策的理论框架。这一概念是在一个基于主体的模型中形式化的,该模型模拟了文化因素如何结合起来,在个体对COVID-19危机的行为反应方面产生不同人群的差异。我们说明,在我们的模拟环境中,人们遵守公共卫生相关措施的文化依赖意愿可能构成不同人群感染动态差异的重要决定因素。在以个人主义、进步和平等主义为标志的文化中,我们的模型产生了最高的不服从率。我们的模型说明了文化作为与COVID-19相关的感染的人群水平预测因子的潜在作用。这样,该模型及其所依据的理论框架可以为未来的研究提供信息,这些研究旨在将文化对大流行期间个人决策过程的影响纳入社会模拟模型。©2022,萨里大学。版权所有。
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引用次数: 0
An Agent-Based Model to Support Infection Control Strategies at School 支持学校感染控制策略的基于主体的模型
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.18564/jasss.4830
Daniele Baccega, S. Pernice, P. Terna, P. Castagno, G. Moirano, L. Richiardi, M. Sereno, S. Rabellino, M. Maule, M. Beccuti
Many governments enforced physical distancing measures during the COVID-19 pandemic to avoid the collapse of often fragile and overloaded health care systems. Following the physical distancing measures, school closures seemed unavoidable to keep the transmission of the pathogen under control, given the potentially high-risk of these environments. Nevertheless, closing schools was considered an extreme and the last resort of governments, and so various non-pharmaceutical interventions in schools were implemented to reduce the risk of transmission. By means of an agent-based model, we studied the efficacy of active surveillance strategies in the school environment. Simulations settings provided hypothetical although realistic scenarios which allowed us to identify the most suitable control strategy to avoid massive school closures while adapting to contagion dynamics. Reducing risk by means of public policies explored in our study is essential for both health authorities and school administrators. © 2022, University of Surrey. All rights reserved.
在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间,许多政府实施了保持身体距离的措施,以避免往往脆弱和超负荷的卫生保健系统崩溃。在采取物理距离措施之后,鉴于这些环境的潜在高风险,学校关闭似乎是不可避免的,以控制病原体的传播。然而,关闭学校被认为是极端的做法,也是政府的最后手段,因此在学校实施了各种非药物干预措施,以减少传播风险。通过基于主体的模型,我们研究了主动监控策略在学校环境中的有效性。模拟设置提供了假设性的,尽管是现实的场景,使我们能够确定最合适的控制策略,以避免大规模学校关闭,同时适应传染动态。通过我们研究中探索的公共政策来降低风险对卫生当局和学校管理者都是至关重要的。©2022,萨里大学。版权所有。
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引用次数: 3
ReMoTe-S. Residential Mobility of Tenants in Switzerland: An Agent-Based Model ReMoTe-S。瑞士租户居住流动性:一个基于代理的模型
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.18564/jasss.4752
Anna Pagani, Francesco Ballestrazzi, Emanuele Massaro, C. Binder
: Sustainable housing is a key priority for Switzerland. To provide both environmentally and socio-culturally sustainable housing, Swiss property owners need to navigate the complex and context-specific system that articulates the match between households’ preferences and the dwellings available to them–i.e., residential mobility. In response to this need, this paper outlines ReMoTe-S, an agent-based model of tenants’ residential mobility in Switzerland. The model design is based on empirical research conducted with the tenants of three multifamily housing providers. It accounts for the life course of dwellings and households, during which the latter attempt to maximise their satisfaction, which is calculated as the correspondence between their desired housing functions (e.g., a status symbol) and the functions of dwellings. To illustrate the model’s potential uses, we explore the sensitivity of its outputs to changes in dwellings’ and buildings’ qualitative and quantitative features by considering two key indicators of housing sustainability: floor space per capita and vacancy rate. Firstly, we observe that a supply dominated by medium-to-large dwellings and the application of less strict occupancy rules can result in housing underoccupancy. Secondly, it emerges that certain combina-tions of housing features engender a lower vacancy rate inasmuch as they more successfully generate housing functions. We conclude that by enabling housing providers to explore the complex human-environment interactions of the housing system, ReMoTe-S can be used to inform a sustainable management of housing stock.
可持续住房是瑞士的一个关键优先事项。为了提供环境和社会文化可持续发展的住房,瑞士的业主需要在复杂的、特定于环境的系统中导航,该系统明确了家庭偏好与可供他们使用的住房之间的匹配。,住宅流动性。为了满足这一需求,本文概述了ReMoTe-S,一个基于代理的瑞士租户住宅流动模型。模型设计是基于对三家多户住宅供应商的租户进行的实证研究。它解释了住宅和家庭的生命历程,在此期间,后者试图最大限度地提高他们的满意度,这是根据他们期望的住房功能(例如,地位象征)与住宅功能之间的对应关系计算的。为了说明该模型的潜在用途,我们通过考虑住房可持续性的两个关键指标:人均建筑面积和空置率,探讨了其产出对住宅和建筑物定性和定量特征变化的敏感性。首先,我们观察到,以中大型住宅为主的供应和不太严格的占用规则的应用可能导致住房占用不足。其次,住房特征的某些组合产生了较低的空置率,因为它们更成功地产生了住房功能。我们得出的结论是,通过使住房供应商能够探索住房系统中复杂的人与环境相互作用,ReMoTe-S可以用于为住房存量的可持续管理提供信息。
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引用次数: 2
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