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Analysing the Turkey-Africa Relationship’s Impact on the flow of Turkey’s Exports 分析土耳其-非洲关系对土耳其出口流动的影响
Pub Date : 2019-07-15 DOI: 10.29145/EER/21/020102
Puruweti Siyakiya
While there are scholars who have analysed factors that influence Turkey’s bilateral exports, very few have examined the impact of cooperation/conflicts on Turkey’s trade in general and with particular reference to Africa. In view of the above, this paper seeks to analyse and estimate the effect on exports from Turkey to 52 African countries of Turkey’s relationship with the Africa Union for the period 1998-2015. Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) results suggest that Turkey’s cooperation with Africa (TAR) is positive and statistically significant in inducing exports from Turkey to 52 selected African countries. Specifically, TAR increases Turkey’s exports to selected African countries by 44.5%. Alternatively, due to TAR Turkey’s exports to Africa are predicted to be 1.44 times higher than in the absence of cooperation. However, there is evidence that TAR’s impact on exports vary across regions. Compared to countries in the Northern part of Africa, the effect of TAR with African countries in the East, South, and West is negative and statistically significant. Given these results, it is therefore prudent for Turkey to target countries or regional trading blocs in where export deficiency has been diagnosed so that more exports can be stimulated.
虽然有学者分析了影响土耳其双边出口的因素,但很少有人研究合作/冲突对土耳其一般贸易的影响,特别是对非洲的影响。鉴于此,本文试图分析和估计土耳其与非洲联盟的关系在1998-2015年期间对土耳其对52个非洲国家出口的影响。泊松伪最大似然(PPML)结果表明,土耳其与非洲的合作(TAR)在诱导土耳其向52个选定的非洲国家出口方面具有积极和统计显著性。具体而言,TAR使土耳其对选定非洲国家的出口增加了44.5%。另一方面,由于西藏自治区,土耳其对非洲的出口预计将比没有合作时高出1.44倍。然而,有证据表明,西藏自治区对出口的影响因地区而异。与非洲北部国家相比,第三次评估报告对东部、南部和西部非洲国家的影响是负的,具有统计学意义。鉴于这些结果,土耳其应谨慎地将目标对准已诊断出出口不足的国家或区域贸易集团,以便刺激更多的出口。
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引用次数: 1
Health Expenditures, Institutional Quality and Economic Growth 卫生支出、机构质量和经济增长
Pub Date : 2019-07-15 DOI: 10.29145/EER/21/020103
Syeda Anam Fatima Rizvi
The study aims to determine the effect of health expenditures on economic growth while taking into account the quality of health institutions, keeping in view the fact that it’s not just the level, rather quality of expenditures or institutions that matters. Our hypothesis was where institutions are better health investment in health brings more economic growth as compared to those with low quality institutions. To attain that objective the standard neoclassical Solow Growth Model at steady-state level was taken as theoretical framework and made a production function adding institutional quality proxied by government effectiveness along with other variables like health expenditure, primary education completion rate, population growth etc. For estimation purposes, data for the sample of 20 South, East Asian and Pacific developing countries was used for the period 1995-2017. It was found that if health expenditures adjusted for the quality of government expenditures increase by 100%, then the economic growth will increase by 5%.
该研究旨在确定卫生支出对经济增长的影响,同时考虑到卫生机构的质量,同时考虑到重要的不仅仅是支出或机构的水平,而是质量。我们的假设是,在卫生机构较好的地方,与卫生机构质量较差的地方相比,卫生投资能带来更多的经济增长。为了实现这一目标,本文以标准的新古典索洛增长模型为理论框架,并建立了一个生产函数,增加了以政府有效性为代表的制度质量,以及卫生支出、初等教育完成率、人口增长率等其他变量。出于估计目的,使用了1995-2017年期间20个南亚、东亚和太平洋发展中国家的样本数据。研究发现,如果经政府支出质量调整后的卫生支出增加100%,那么经济增长率将提高5%。
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引用次数: 13
Impact of Indo-ASEAN Import on ASEAN Trade and Financial Integration 印度-东盟进口对东盟贸易和金融一体化的影响
Pub Date : 2019-05-01 DOI: 10.29145/EER/21/020101
Debesh Bhowmik
In this paper, the author examined the influence of Indo-ASEAN import on the ASEAN trade and financial integration during 1994-95 to 2017-18 using cointegration test, vector error correction model and Wald Test taking foreign direct investment inflows, real effective exchange rate, openness, Indo-ASEAN import, intra import share, GDP growth rate of ASEAN, the import concentration and diversification index of ASEAN as variables. The paper concludes that there are four co-integrating equations. There are short run causalities from Indo-ASEAN import, intra import share and FDI inflows of ASEAN to growth rate of ASEAN. Long run causalities were found from ASEAN growth rate of GDP to intra import share of ASEAN, from Indo-ASEAN import to growth rate of ASEAN, from FDI inflows of ASEAN and GDP growth of ASEAN to intra-ASEAN import share, from Indo-ASEAN import to import diversification index of ASEAN respectively. Lastly, there are short run causalities from indo-ASEAN import and import concentration index of ASEAN to import diversification index of ASEAN respectively during 1994-2017.
本文以外国直接投资流入量、实际有效汇率、开放度、印度-东盟进口、东盟内部进口份额、东盟GDP增长率、东盟进口集中度和多样化指数为变量,采用协整检验、向量误差修正模型和Wald检验,考察了1994-95年至2017-18年间印度-东盟进口对东盟贸易和金融一体化的影响。本文得出了四种协整方程。印度-东盟进口、东盟内部进口份额和东盟FDI流入对东盟增长率有短期的影响。从东盟GDP增长率到东盟内部进口份额,从印度-东盟进口到东盟增长率,从东盟FDI流入量和东盟GDP增长到东盟内部进口份额,从印度-东盟进口到东盟进口多样化指数,分别发现了长期因果关系。最后,1994-2017年印度-东盟进口和东盟进口集中度指数分别对东盟进口多元化指数存在短期因果关系。
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引用次数: 1
Economic Value Added or Earnings per Share? An Incremental Content Analysis 经济增加值还是每股收益?增量内容分析
Pub Date : 2018-12-01 DOI: 10.29145/EER/12/010204
Maham Ejaz, Rubeena Tashfeen, K. Younas, A. Naeem
The primary objective of the study is to determine the relative and incremental information content of Economic Value Added (EVA) as compared to the traditional accounting measure of Earnings per Share (EPS). The study employs the methodology derived from Easton and Harris (1991). The study sample comprises 30 largest listed non-financial firms on Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) and covers the period from 2005-2014. The findings indicate that EPS outperforms EVA in capturing the market trends of stock return performance. The results of the research negate the common notion of EVA as a superior measure of firm performance. Although, evidence obtained from empirical tests illustrates that EVA provides marginal incremental information combined with EPS, but it is low. The study offers academicians, practitioners and investors a more accurate measure by which to assess performance in the markets.
本研究的主要目的是确定经济增加值(EVA)相对于每股收益(EPS)的传统会计计量的增量信息含量。本研究采用的方法源自伊斯顿和哈里斯(1991)。本研究样本包括巴基斯坦证券交易所(PSX) 30家最大的非金融上市公司,涵盖2005-2014年期间。研究结果显示,每股盈余在捕捉股票收益表现的市场趋势方面优于EVA。研究结果否定了EVA作为衡量公司绩效的优越标准的普遍观念。虽然,从实证检验中得到的证据表明,EVA结合每股收益提供了边际增量信息,但较低。这项研究为学者、从业者和投资者评估市场表现提供了一个更准确的衡量标准。
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引用次数: 3
Application of Financial Decisions, their Determinants, and Financial Performance: A Tabular Summary of Systematic Literature Review 财务决策的应用、决定因素与财务绩效:系统文献综述的表格摘要
Pub Date : 2018-12-01 DOI: 10.29145/EER/12/010205
Ahmed Imran Hunjra, H. Bakari, I. Batool
Financial decisions (capital budgeting, capital structure and dividend policy) are the most important components of corporate finance and now a days have received the attention of researchers and practitioners. Financial decisions influence the financial performance of a firm. Uncertainty, corporate social responsibility, and stakeholders interest are the most important determinants of the financial decisions. The purpose of this study is twofold: firstly, this study provides a systematic review of literature summarizing the theoretical and empirical literature of the financial decisions, their determinants and financial performance. Secondly, it provides the empirical evidence based on survey and data was collected from Chief Financial Officers of Telecommunication, Banking, and Insurance companies listed in Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) of Pakistan. This study used SPSS and AMOS for data analysis. This study finds that the financial decisions and their determinants are critical factors for the financial performance of firms.
财务决策(资本预算、资本结构和股利政策)是企业财务中最重要的组成部分,目前已受到研究者和实践者的关注。财务决策影响企业的财务绩效。不确定性、企业社会责任和利益相关者利益是财务决策的最重要决定因素。本研究的目的是双重的:首先,本研究提供了一个系统的文献综述,总结了财务决策,其决定因素和财务绩效的理论和实证文献。其次,通过对巴基斯坦卡拉奇证券交易所(KSE)上市的电信、银行和保险公司首席财务官的调查和数据收集,提供了实证证据。本研究使用SPSS和AMOS进行数据分析。本研究发现财务决策及其决定因素是影响企业财务绩效的关键因素。
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引用次数: 1
Financial Variables as Predictive Indicators of the Luxembourg GDP Growth 金融变量作为卢森堡GDP增长的预测指标
Pub Date : 2018-12-01 DOI: 10.29145/EER/12/010203
Sabbah Gueddoudj
The last financial crisis has had negative impacts on economic growth underlining the contagion between the financial sphere and the real sphere. Indeed, in many developed economies the aggregate production fell abruptly during the financial turbulences period. Now the problem is to understand how a financial crisis creates such a contagion. The answer may partly lie in the role of financial variables in the economic growth outlook. In this paper, we analyze the predictive power of some relevant financial variables to forecast the GDP growth in Luxembourg by implementing a Mixed Data Sampling model developed by Ghysels, Sinko, and Vuksic (2007). Both financial and non-financial variables are introduced such as stock index, monetary aggregates (M1 and M2), industrial production index (I.P.I) and mutual fund’s N.A.V. (Net Asset Value). The industrial production index (I.P.I) is used as a benchmark. According to our estimations, the stocks index and mutual funds’ N.A.V outperform the industrial production index. Considering the role of finance in Luxembourgish economic growth, this result is not surprising. M1 outperforms the I.P.I over the long-term run.
上一次金融危机对经济增长产生了负面影响,突显了金融领域与实体领域之间的传染。事实上,在许多发达经济体,总生产在金融动荡期间突然下降。现在的问题是要理解金融危机是如何造成这种传染的。答案可能部分在于金融变量在经济增长前景中的作用。在本文中,我们通过实施Ghysels, Sinko和Vuksic(2007)开发的混合数据抽样模型,分析了一些相关金融变量预测卢森堡GDP增长的预测能力。引入金融和非金融变量,如股指、货币总量(M1和M2)、工业生产指数(I.P.I)和共同基金的净资产值(naa.v)。工业生产指数(I.P.I)被用作基准。根据我们的估计,股票指数和共同基金的nav表现优于工业生产指数。考虑到金融在卢森堡经济增长中的作用,这一结果并不令人惊讶。长期来看,M1的表现优于I.P.I。
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引用次数: 2
Forecasting GDP Growth: Application of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model GDP增长预测:自回归综合移动平均模型的应用
Pub Date : 2018-12-01 DOI: 10.29145/EER/12/010201
Y. Awel
This paper uses Box-Jenkins approach to model and forecast real GDP growth in Ethiopia. Such an approach could easily provide forecast for key macroeconomic variables in limited data environment. Based on the approach, the paper estimates Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ARIMA (1,1,1) model and forecasts real GDP growth. Both the in-sample fit and pseudo-out of sample forecasts show that the ARIMA model’s performance are good and better than other forecasts.
本文采用Box-Jenkins方法对埃塞俄比亚实际GDP增长进行建模和预测。这种方法可以在有限的数据环境下很容易地对关键宏观经济变量进行预测。基于该方法,本文估计了自回归综合移动平均ARIMA(1,1,1)模型,并对实际GDP增长进行了预测。样本内拟合和伪样本外预测均表明,ARIMA模型的预测效果良好,优于其他预测方法。
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引用次数: 6
Globalization-Poverty Nexuses: Evidences from Cross-Country Analysis 全球化与贫困的联系:来自跨国分析的证据
Pub Date : 2018-08-01 DOI: 10.29145/EER/11/010102
Ravindra Deyshappria
The current study examines the impact of globalization on poverty across 119 countries by utilizing poverty headcount index based on 1.90$ international poverty line and KOF globalization index developed by Dreher, Gaston, and Martens (2008). The main objectives of the research are to examine the general impact of globalization on poverty and region specific impact of globalization on poverty. The crosssection analysis based on OLS method suggests that globalization significantly reduces the level of poverty of selected countries. Apart from that, the study found that secondary education enrolment ratio, percentage of urban population and percentage of population who has access to electricity also reduce the poverty. However, impact of globalization on poverty is not equal across all the regions. The region-based analysis confirms that globalization reduces poverty in all considered regions except Sub-Saharan Africa. More specifically, contribution of globalization on poverty reduction is more substantial in South Asia region followed by East Asia and Pacific and Europe and Central Asia regions. Consequently, the study strongly recommends countries to engage with the process of globalization and however the degree of opening up trade policies, capital accounts and labor markets should be decided based on their own domestic macroeconomic conditions and future economic goals.
本研究利用基于1.90美元国际贫困线的贫困人口指数和德累尔、加斯顿和马滕斯(2008)开发的KOF全球化指数,考察了全球化对119个国家贫困的影响。研究的主要目的是考察全球化对贫困的总体影响和全球化对贫困的区域具体影响。基于OLS方法的横截面分析表明,全球化显著降低了所选国家的贫困水平。除此之外,该研究还发现,中等教育入学率、城市人口比例和通电人口比例也能减少贫困。然而,全球化对贫困的影响并非在所有区域都是平等的。基于区域的分析证实,全球化在除撒哈拉以南非洲以外的所有考虑区域都减少了贫困。具体而言,全球化对减贫的贡献在南亚区域更为显著,其次是东亚和太平洋区域以及欧洲和中亚区域。因此,该研究强烈建议各国参与全球化进程,但贸易政策、资本账户和劳动力市场的开放程度应根据本国宏观经济状况和未来经济目标来决定。
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引用次数: 12
Pakistan’s Electricity Demand Analysis 1975-2016 巴基斯坦电力需求分析1975-2016
Pub Date : 2018-08-01 DOI: 10.29145/EER/11/010105
Aneeq Sarwar, U. Hanif
The problem of energy is one that has plagued the economic growth of Pakistan for decades; the resulting domestic pressure has often led to the misallocation of resources, and therefore should be studied extensively for evidence based policy recommendation. The study in hand aims to envelope and analyze approximate factors responsible for determining electricity demand in the country. The study analyzes the aggregate demand for electricity in Pakistan from 1975-2016, by considering log-run climatic variable affecting electricity demand. The ADF, the Johansen Cointegration, and the ARDL techniques have been applied for the estimation of parameters and analysis. The scientific analysis found that in the short run and long run number of consumers, income (real GDP per capita) square of income and stock of appliances have a significant relationship with the demand of electricity. Where all significant relationships in the long run have a positive relationship with the demand apart from the square of income which may suggest a shift towards alternate means of energy production with a long term sustained growth in income. While, price is found to be insignificant determinant of electricity demand in both short run and long run, which reveals that electricity is considered a necessity by Pakistan’s electricity consumers. In the short run number of consumers, income, squared income, and stock of appliances, all have significant positive relationships with demand, and temperature has an insignificant positive relationship in the short run, but a significant positive relationship in the long run.
几十年来,能源问题一直困扰着巴基斯坦的经济增长;由此产生的国内压力往往导致资源分配不当,因此应进行广泛研究,以便提出基于证据的政策建议。手头的这项研究旨在概括和分析决定该国电力需求的大致因素。该研究通过考虑影响电力需求的长期气候变量,分析了1975-2016年巴基斯坦的总电力需求。ADF、Johansen协整和ARDL技术已被应用于参数估计和分析。科学分析发现,短期和长期消费人数、收入(实际人均GDP)收入的平方和家电存量与电力需求有显著的关系。从长远来看,除了收入的平方之外,所有重要的关系都与需求呈正相关,这可能表明,随着收入的长期持续增长,能源生产的替代方式正在转变。然而,无论从短期还是长期来看,价格都是电力需求的不显著决定因素,这表明巴基斯坦的电力消费者认为电力是必需品。短期内消费者人数、收入、收入平方、家电库存均与需求呈显著正相关,温度在短期内呈不显著正相关,但在长期内呈显著正相关。
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引用次数: 2
The Impact of Trade Liberalization on Health: Evidence from Pakistan 贸易自由化对健康的影响:来自巴基斯坦的证据
Pub Date : 2018-08-01 DOI: 10.29145/EER/11/010104
Nida Qadir, Muhammad Tariq Majeed
The literature predicts both positive and negative health outcomes in developing economies as a result of increasing trade. Does openness to trade help to improve health indicators in the case of Pakistan? This study attempts to answer this question using data from 1975 to 2016. This study uses life expectancy and infant mortality as health indicators while trade to GDP ratio as trade openness indicator. For robustness analysis, the study uses international trade taxes, exports to GDP ratio and imports to GDP ratio. The empirical results of the study show that 1% increase in trade to GDP ratio significantly decreases life expectancy by 0.05 years and significantly increases infant mortality by 0.47 deaths. Thus, trade causes adverse effects on health indicators in the case of Pakistan.
文献预测了贸易增加对发展中经济体健康的积极和消极影响。以巴基斯坦为例,贸易开放是否有助于改善卫生指标?这项研究试图用1975年到2016年的数据来回答这个问题。本研究以预期寿命和婴儿死亡率作为健康指标,以贸易与GDP之比作为贸易开放指标。为了进行稳健性分析,本研究使用了国际贸易税、出口占GDP比率和进口占GDP比率。研究的实证结果表明,贸易与GDP之比每提高1%,人均预期寿命显著降低0.05岁,婴儿死亡率显著提高0.47例。因此,就巴基斯坦而言,贸易对健康指标造成不利影响。
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引用次数: 20
期刊
Empirical Economic Review
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