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Caught Between Appeasement and Limited Hard Balancing: The Philippines’ Changing Relations With the Eagle and the Dragon 夹在安抚和有限的硬平衡之间:菲律宾与鹰与龙关系的变化
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-02-25 DOI: 10.1177/18681034221081143
R. D. de Castro
After five years of pursuing a policy of appeasement towards China, the Philippines is incrementally and reluctantly shifting to “limited hard balancing.” The goal is to constrain China's revisionist agenda in the South China Sea. This strategy entails building up the Philippine military's territorial defence capabilities, maintaining its alliance with the U.S., and forging security partnerships with other middle power like South Korean, Japan, and Australia. During his six-year term, the late President Benigno Aquino III stood up to China's expansive claim in the South China Sea. When Rodrigo Roa Duterte assumed the presidency in June 2016, he unravelled his predecessor's balancing policy towards China. Nonetheless, recent developments such as the People's Liberation Army Navy's hostile moves against the Armed Forces of the Philippines units on Philippine-occupied islands in the South China Sea and the delays in the promised Chinese public investments in the country prompted the Duterte Administration to review the appeasement approach and to mull over on a limited hard balancing policy. In conclusion, this article contends that the Duterte Administration is at the crossroads, figuring out if it will continue its appeasement stance or adopt a limited hard balancing policy towards China.
在对中国实行了五年的绥靖政策之后,菲律宾正在逐步而不情愿地转向“有限的硬平衡”。其目标是限制中国在南中国海的修正主义议程。这一战略需要加强菲律宾军方的领土防御能力,保持与美国的联盟,并与韩国、日本和澳大利亚等其他中等大国建立安全伙伴关系。在其六年任期内,已故总统贝尼尼奥·阿基诺三世坚持中国在南中国海的广泛主权主张。罗德里戈·罗亚·杜特尔特于2016年6月就任总统时,破坏了前任的对华平衡政策。尽管如此,最近的事态发展,如中国人民解放军海军在菲律宾占领的南中国海岛屿上对菲律宾武装部队采取敌对行动,以及中国承诺在该国进行公共投资的延迟,促使杜特尔特政府重新审视绥靖政策,并考虑采取有限的硬平衡政策。最后,这篇文章认为,杜特尔特政府正处于十字路口,正在考虑是继续其绥靖立场,还是对中国采取有限的硬平衡政策。
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引用次数: 2
The COVID-19 Pandemic and the Emergence of Vietnam as a Middle Power 新冠肺炎疫情与越南崛起为中等强国
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2021-12-21 DOI: 10.1177/18681034211057569
Le Dinh Tinh, Vu Thi Thu Ngan
Limited capability and political will have caused the great powers to fail to demonstrate their global leadership in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic, which has created greater room to manoeuvre for other countries to influence international affairs. Preliminary achievements in the fight against the COVID-19 crisis have buttressed the rising global status of small and medium-sized states, including Vietnam. Although Vietnam has recently been recognised as an emerging middle power, scepticism looms regarding whether this higher international status is beyond its capacity. We argue that the pandemic may act as a catalyst for Vietnam to further elevate its strategic role as a middle power on the international stage in the medium and long term.
能力和政治意愿有限,导致大国在抗击新冠肺炎疫情中未能发挥全球领导作用,为其他国家影响国际事务提供了更大的回旋余地。在抗击新冠肺炎危机中取得的初步成果,为包括越南在内的中小国家在全球的地位不断提升提供了支撑。尽管越南最近被公认为一个新兴的中等大国,但人们对这种更高的国际地位是否超出了它的能力表示怀疑。我们认为,从中长期来看,疫情可能会成为越南进一步提升其作为国际舞台上中等大国战略作用的催化剂。
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引用次数: 7
Kleptocracy and Foreign Loan Decision-Making Process: Insights From Malaysia's Deals and Renegotiations With China 盗贼统治和外国贷款决策过程:来自马来西亚与中国的交易和重新谈判的见解
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2021-12-21 DOI: 10.1177/18681034211058470
A. Abadi
One the largest cases of kleptocracy is attributed to the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) scandal involving the former Malaysian Prime Minister, Najib Razak. As a result of the pressure to pay the debt, Najib signed multiple inflated infrastructure loans from China in 2016. This study analyses the manipulation of Public Service Bargains as a critical variable influencing the foreign loan decision-making of the kleptocrat leader. It concludes that Najib's manipulation strategies transformed the established Trustee-type to kleptocratic-type bargains in Malaysia's foreign loan decision-making process. The post-Najib's restoration of Trustee-type bargains under the new Malaysian government, followed by a series of successful renegotiations with China, attest to the significance of the Public Service Bargains system on the foreign loan decision-making process. This analysis also contributes to the wider discussion on the critical side of China's Belt and Road Initiative amidst a global call for good governance.
迫于偿还债务的压力,纳吉布在2016年从中国签署了多项夸大的基础设施贷款。本研究分析了公共服务交易操纵作为影响盗贼统治领导人对外贷款决策的关键变量。它的结论是,纳吉布的操纵策略将马来西亚对外贷款决策过程中既定的托管型转变为盗贼统治型讨价还价。纳吉布执政后,马来西亚新政府恢复了托管式协议,随后又与中国进行了一系列成功的重新谈判,这证明了公共服务协议制度在外国贷款决策过程中的重要性。这一分析也有助于在全球呼吁善治的背景下,对中国“一带一路”倡议的关键方面进行更广泛的讨论。
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引用次数: 0
Book Review: Indonesians and Their Arab World: Guided Mobility among Labor Migrants and Mecca Pilgrims 书评:印尼人和他们的阿拉伯世界:劳工移民和麦加朝圣者之间的引导流动
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2021-12-20 DOI: 10.1177/18681034211021414
Antje Missbach
Creative Commons CC BY: This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License (https:// creativecommons. org/ licenses/ by/ 4. 0/) which permits any use, reproduction and distribution of the work without further permission provided the original work is attributed as specified on the SAGE and Open Access page (https:// us. sagepub. com/ enus/ nam/ openaccessatsage). Book Review
知识共享CC BY:本文在知识共享署名4.0许可条款下发布(https:// Creative Commons。Org/ licenses/ by/ 4。0/),允许任何使用、复制和分发作品,无需进一步许可,前提是原始作品的归属是SAGE和开放获取页面(https:// us. com)上指定的。sagepub。http://www.enus/nam/openaccessatsage)。书评
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引用次数: 0
Outsourcing Outreach: ‘Counter-translation’ of Outreach Activities at the Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia 外包外联:柬埔寨法院特别分庭外联活动的“反翻译”
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2021-11-26 DOI: 10.1177/18681034211058741
A. Kent
This article examines the outreach activities of the ongoing trials in the Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia (ECCC). The ECCC was designed to hold the leaders of Cambodia's notoriously violent Khmer Rouge regime (1975–1979) accountable. Outreach programmes have now become part of transitional justice initiatives as means to anchor their work in local and national consciousness in target countries. Using ethnographic data gathered in 2019–2020, this article explores how outreach activities have changed over time as they have become subject to new influences. I focus in particular on how some local actors have begun appropriating them in ways that represent a ‘counter-translation’ of the intentions originally propagated by the architects of the ECCC.
本文审查了柬埔寨法院特别分庭正在进行的审判的外联活动。ECCC的设立是为了让柬埔寨臭名昭著的暴力红色高棉政权(1975-1979)的领导人承担责任。外联方案现在已成为过渡时期司法倡议的一部分,作为使其工作在目标国家的地方和民族意识中扎根的手段。本文利用2019-2020年收集的民族志数据,探讨了随着时间的推移,外联活动如何随着受到新的影响而发生变化。我特别关注一些地方行动者如何开始以一种“反翻译”的方式挪用它们,这种方式代表了ECCC的建筑师最初传播的意图。
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引用次数: 0
Myanmar's Foreign Policy: Shifting Legitimacy, Shifting Strategic Culture 缅甸外交政策:合法性的转变,战略文化的转变
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2021-10-22 DOI: 10.1177/18681034211044481
Po P. Shang
Since 2011, while the principles of foreign policy “independent, active, and non-aligned” under the respective governments under the Union Solidarity and Development Party and the National League for Democracy have remained the same, the foreign policy approaches – including the concept of non-alignment – of the two leaders of these governments have been quite different. This article describes the survival and foreign policy of the small country of Myanmar beyond the great power lens, arguing that the impact of strategic culture on the two governments since 2011 has differed because of the different levels of legitimacy enjoyed by the two leaders. The cornerstones of Myanmar's strategic culture are (1) that it shall never tolerate foreign interference, (2) that it shall always pursue self-reliance in its diplomacy, and (3) that the very nature of Myanmar is to be independent.
自2011年以来,尽管联邦巩固与发展党和全国民主联盟各自政府的外交政策“独立、积极和不结盟”原则保持不变,但这些政府的两位领导人的外交政策方针——包括不结盟的概念——却大不相同。这篇文章描述了小国缅甸在大国视角之外的生存和外交政策,认为自2011年以来,战略文化对两国政府的影响有所不同,因为两国领导人享有不同程度的合法性。缅甸战略文化的基石是:(1)绝不容忍外国干涉;(2)在外交上始终追求自力更生;(3)缅甸的本质就是独立。
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引用次数: 0
Poliheuristic Theory and Indonesia’s Absence in Deep-Sea Mining (DSM) 脊髓灰质炎启发式理论与印尼在深海采矿(DSM)中的缺席
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2021-08-29 DOI: 10.1177/18681034211036711
M. F. Karim, Willy Dwira Yudha
Indonesia is among the many states that have become interested in conducting deep-sea mining (DSM) since it first became viable in the 1970s. However, it was during the administration of President Joko Widodo (2014–2019) that DSM became an important viable endeavour, with the increasing depletion of Indonesia’s mineral and metal reserves. Nevertheless, Indonesia is yet to undertake DSM activity. This article aims to explain the absence of DSM in Indonesia by analysing the political dimensions of the decision-making process during President Widodo’s administration. This research utilises the poliheuristic theory (PHT) of decision-making. It shows that Indonesia’s DSM absence is the result of conscious decisions made by President Widodo to avoid loss in public support and drop in popularity. This article contributes to expanding the study of non-event or non-decision, which has been largely ignored in decision-making literature in Indonesia.
自20世纪70年代深海采矿(DSM)首次可行以来,印度尼西亚是众多对其感兴趣的国家之一。然而,正是在佐科·维多多总统执政期间(2014-2019年),随着印尼矿产和金属储量的日益枯竭,需求侧管理成为一项重要的可行努力。然而,印度尼西亚尚未开展需求侧管理活动。本文旨在通过分析维多多总统执政期间决策过程的政治层面来解释印尼缺乏DSM的原因。本研究运用了决策的策略启发式理论。这表明,印尼DSM的缺席是维多多总统为避免失去公众支持和人气下降而做出的有意识的决定的结果。这篇文章有助于扩大对非事件或非决策的研究,这在印尼的决策文献中基本上被忽视了。
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引用次数: 0
Representing Chinese Indonesians: Pribumi Discourse and Regional Elections in Post-Reform Indonesia 印尼华人的代表性:改革后印尼的普里布米话语与地区选举
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2021-08-29 DOI: 10.1177/18681034211036716
Jonathan Chen
Utilising Pitkin’s concept of representation, this article surveys the landscape of Chinese Indonesian political representation since the advent of regional elections in 1999. Analyses of the dataset of individual profiles of Chinese Indonesian executives, as they adopt inclusive-pairing tactics by taking on deputised roles or appeal using charisma, had demonstrated that there was a visible transition from “descriptive” towards more “substantive” forms of political representation in various constituencies – seen as the most important dimension of ideal representation despite the presence of soft ethnic politics. Recent appeals to indigenism (pribumi-ism), especially in the wake of Jakarta governor Ahok’s failed re-election bid in 2017, had the effect of confining representational politics towards the narrow margins of ethnicity above all else. This article looks at the precarity of thedivide between pribumis and Chinese Indonesians (Tionghoa) from the perspective of political representation at the regions and fills in the lacuna of political representativeness in post-reform Indonesia – overlooked so far by critiques of democracy.
本文运用皮特金的代表权概念,考察了1999年印尼地区选举以来印尼华人政治代表权的格局。分析印尼华人高管的个人档案数据集,因为他们通过扮演代理角色或利用魅力吸引人来采取包容性的配对策略,已经表明,在各个选区,政治代表形式从“描述性”向更“实质性”的明显转变——尽管存在软性种族政治,但这被视为理想代表性的最重要方面。最近对土著主义(pribumi主义)的呼吁,特别是在雅加达省长阿霍克2017年竞选连任失败之后,产生了将代议制政治限制在少数族裔之上的效果。本文从各地区政治代表性的角度审视了普里布米人和印尼华人(Tionghoa)之间分歧的不确定性,并填补了改革后印尼政治代表性方面的空白——迄今为止,民主批评忽视了这一空白。
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引用次数: 7
The Impact of Local Parties on Party System Institutionalisation in Post-Conflict Aceh 冲突后亚齐地方政党对政党制度制度化的影响
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2021-08-24 DOI: 10.1177/18681034211029035
Aisah Putri Budiatri
While there has been a flurry of research on party system institutionalisation (PSI) and regionalist parties, very little research has been conducted on their imbrication. This study aims to fill this gap by analysing the impact of local parties on the party system in post-conflict Aceh, Indonesia. It contends that the presence of local parties in Aceh has had a hybrid effect on the institutionalisation of the party system. Similar to national parties, local parties in Indonesia have weak societal roots and party organisations that obstruct PSI in Aceh. That notwithstanding, local parties in post-conflict Aceh have assisted in solidifying the party system by improving the legitimacy of parties and elections and by creating a less fragmented party system. This hybrid effect is also strongly influenced by Aceh’s long wartime history and its post-conflict status.
虽然对政党制度制度化(PSI)和地方主义政党进行了大量研究,但对它们的融合进行的研究却很少。本研究旨在通过分析冲突后印尼亚齐省地方政党对政党制度的影响来填补这一空白。它认为,亚齐地方政党的存在对政党制度的制度化产生了混合影响。与国家政党类似,印尼地方政党的社会根基和党组织薄弱,阻碍了亚齐的PSI。尽管如此,冲突后亚齐的地方政党通过提高政党和选举的合法性以及建立一个不那么分散的政党制度,帮助巩固了政党制度。这种混合效应也受到亚齐漫长的战争历史和冲突后地位的强烈影响。
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引用次数: 3
Authoritarian Populism in Indonesia: The Role of the Political Campaign Industry in Engineering Consent and Coercion 印尼的威权民粹主义:政治运动产业在工程同意和胁迫中的作用
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2021-07-29 DOI: 10.1177/18681034211027885
Inaya Rakhmani, Muninggar S. Saraswati
All around the globe, populism has become increasingly prominent in democratic societies in the developed and developing world. Scholars have attributed this rise at a response to the systematic reproduction of social inequalities entwined with processes of neoliberal globalisation, within which all countries are inextricably and dynamically linked. However, to theorise populism properly, we must look at its manifestations in countries other than the West. By taking the case of Indonesia, the third largest democracy and the largest economy in Southeast Asia, this article critically analyses the role of the political campaign industry in mobilising narratives in electoral discourses. We use the Gramscian notion of consent and coercion, in which the shaping of populist narratives relies on mechanisms of persuasion using mass and social media. Such mechanisms allow the transformation of political discourses in conjunction with oligarchic power struggle. Within this struggle, political campaigners narrate the persona of political elites, while cyber armies divide and polarise, to manufacture allegiance and agitation among the majority of young voters as part of a shifting social base. As such, we argue that, together, the narratives – through engineering consent and coercion – construct authoritarian populism that pits two crowds of “the people” against each other, while aligning them with different sections of the “elite.”
在全球范围内,民粹主义在发达国家和发展中国家的民主社会中日益突出。学者们将这一增长归因于与新自由主义全球化进程交织在一起的社会不平等的系统性再现,在新自由主义的全球化进程中,所有国家都有着密不可分的动态联系。然而,要想正确地将民粹主义理论化,我们必须看看它在西方以外国家的表现。本文以东南亚第三大民主国家和最大经济体印度尼西亚为例,批判性地分析了政治竞选业在选举话语中动员叙事的作用。我们使用了葛兰西式的同意和胁迫概念,其中民粹主义叙事的形成依赖于使用大众和社交媒体的说服机制。这种机制允许政治话语的转变与寡头权力斗争相结合。在这场斗争中,政治活动家讲述了政治精英的形象,而网络军队则分裂和两极分化,以在大多数年轻选民中制造忠诚和煽动,作为不断变化的社会基础的一部分。因此,我们认为,这些叙事——通过工程同意和胁迫——共同构建了威权民粹主义,使两批“人民”相互对立,同时使他们与“精英”的不同阶层保持一致
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引用次数: 11
期刊
Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs
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