Pub Date : 2020-01-01DOI: 10.35866/CAUJED.2020.45.1.003
X. Vo, Thi Anh-Dao TRAN, V. T. Nguyễn
To develop provincial economies, it is necessary to focus on not only the internal resources of a province but also the relationship among provinces which can lead to the spillover effect throughout the country. This paper examines the economic relationship and spillover effect between provinces in Vietnam by spatial regression approach with data collected from 2010 to 2017 from statistical yearbooks. The results show that there exists a spatial correlation between provinces in terms of provincial gross domestic product, capital investment and labor force. The results also demonstrate that capital and labor factors not only affect the gross domestic product of the host province but also affect the neighboring ones. The finding implies the significant spillover effect between provinces.
{"title":"Investigating the Economic Relationship between Provinces in Vietnam: A Spatial Regression Approach","authors":"X. Vo, Thi Anh-Dao TRAN, V. T. Nguyễn","doi":"10.35866/CAUJED.2020.45.1.003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35866/CAUJED.2020.45.1.003","url":null,"abstract":"To develop provincial economies, it is necessary to focus on not only the internal resources of a province but also the relationship among provinces which can lead to the spillover effect throughout the country. This paper examines the economic relationship and spillover effect between provinces in Vietnam by spatial regression approach with data collected from 2010 to 2017 from statistical yearbooks. The results show that there exists a spatial correlation between provinces in terms of provincial gross domestic product, capital investment and labor force. The results also demonstrate that capital and labor factors not only affect the gross domestic product of the host province but also affect the neighboring ones. The finding implies the significant spillover effect between provinces.","PeriodicalId":15602,"journal":{"name":"Journal of economic development","volume":"45 1","pages":"47-60"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70076915","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-01DOI: 10.35866/CAUJED.2020.45.1.007
N. T. Vinh, T. Duong
This paper investigates the impact of foreign ownership on firm exports in Vietnam and analyzes how export participation and export intensity vary with ownership status by comparing Foreign Direct Investment enterprises (FDI enterprises) versus domestic firms, and wholly-foreign-owned enterprises (WFs) versus foreign joint ventures (JVs). Using data from 2010-2015 Vietnamese enterprise survey (VES), we document that after controlling for firm characteristics, industry and region, FDI enterprises have higher export participation and higher export intensity than local firms. The finding supports the hypothesis that FDI enterprises inherit from foreign firm competitive advantages and therefore become superior in exports. We also find that while export participation is similar between JVs and WFs, export intensity is significantly higher for WFs than for JVs. This suggests that export-oriented foreign investors tend to establish 100% foreign-owned companies to exploit advantages of labor costs or natural resources, while domestic-oriented firms tend to form joint venture to penetrate the domestic market.
{"title":"Firm Export and the Impact of Foreign Ownership in Vietnam: A Micro-Data Analysis","authors":"N. T. Vinh, T. Duong","doi":"10.35866/CAUJED.2020.45.1.007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35866/CAUJED.2020.45.1.007","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the impact of foreign ownership on firm exports in Vietnam and analyzes how export participation and export intensity vary with ownership status by comparing Foreign Direct Investment enterprises (FDI enterprises) versus domestic firms, and wholly-foreign-owned enterprises (WFs) versus foreign joint ventures (JVs). Using data from 2010-2015 Vietnamese enterprise survey (VES), we document that after controlling for firm characteristics, industry and region, FDI enterprises have higher export participation and higher export intensity than local firms. The finding supports the hypothesis that FDI enterprises inherit from foreign firm competitive advantages and therefore become superior in exports. We also find that while export participation is similar between JVs and WFs, export intensity is significantly higher for WFs than for JVs. This suggests that export-oriented foreign investors tend to establish 100% foreign-owned companies to exploit advantages of labor costs or natural resources, while domestic-oriented firms tend to form joint venture to penetrate the domestic market.","PeriodicalId":15602,"journal":{"name":"Journal of economic development","volume":"45 1","pages":"123-143"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70076564","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-01DOI: 10.35866/CAUJED.2020.45.1.006
P. Nguyen, K. Tran, Nga Le, H. Trieu
The relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and firm productivity still greatly concerns many researchers. Even though this topic has provided rich insight into the impacts of FDI spillovers, limited empirical research has been conducted to figure out the heterogeneous impact of such spillovers in the case of Vietnam. In this study, which employs the generalized methods of moments to investigate a sample of 537,772 enterprises operating in Vietnam in the period from 2007 to 2015, we examine how spillovers occur and how they can affect domestic firms’ productivity. Intra-industrial and regional spillovers impact negatively on the productivity of domestic firms. Regarding intra-industrial spillovers, only backward ones positively affect local productivity
{"title":"Examining FDI Spillover Effects on Productivity Growth: Firm-Level Evidence from Vietnam","authors":"P. Nguyen, K. Tran, Nga Le, H. Trieu","doi":"10.35866/CAUJED.2020.45.1.006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35866/CAUJED.2020.45.1.006","url":null,"abstract":"The relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and firm productivity still greatly concerns many researchers. Even though this topic has provided rich insight into the impacts of FDI spillovers, limited empirical research has been conducted to figure out the heterogeneous impact of such spillovers in the case of Vietnam. In this study, which employs the generalized methods of moments to investigate a sample of 537,772 enterprises operating in Vietnam in the period from 2007 to 2015, we examine how spillovers occur and how they can affect domestic firms’ productivity. Intra-industrial and regional spillovers impact negatively on the productivity of domestic firms. Regarding intra-industrial spillovers, only backward ones positively affect local productivity","PeriodicalId":15602,"journal":{"name":"Journal of economic development","volume":"45 1","pages":"97-121"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70076995","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-01DOI: 10.35866/CAUJED.2020.45.3.004
M. Shuaibu, I. Sule
This paper examines the relationship between current account dynamics, relative output performance and real exchange rate adjustment in Nigeria. A structural vector autoregression model that imposes the long-run neutrality assumption of Blanchard and Quah was used to analyze data for the period 1981Q1-2017Q4. Findings show that fiscal shocks drive the dynamics of relative output and current account in Nigeria but do not explain real exchange rate adjustment. However, exchange rate shocks influence the path of relative output while a deterioration of the current account balance in response to a monetary contraction is observed, suggesting the existence of the expenditure-switching effect. The worsening of the current account in response to a fiscal expansion validates the twin-deficit hypothesis in Nigeria. The impact of shocks was found to be more pronounced under the fixed relative to a flexible exchange rate regime. The results make a case for policies that could improve the trade balance and boost productivity complemented by exchange rate flexibility to promote more efficient allocation of resources.
{"title":"Current Account Behavior, Real Exchange Rate Adjustment and Relative Output in Nigeria","authors":"M. Shuaibu, I. Sule","doi":"10.35866/CAUJED.2020.45.3.004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35866/CAUJED.2020.45.3.004","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the relationship between current account dynamics, relative output performance and real exchange rate adjustment in Nigeria. A structural vector autoregression model that imposes the long-run neutrality assumption of Blanchard and Quah was used to analyze data for the period 1981Q1-2017Q4. Findings show that fiscal shocks drive the dynamics of relative output and current account in Nigeria but do not explain real exchange rate adjustment. However, exchange rate shocks influence the path of relative output while a deterioration of the current account balance in response to a monetary contraction is observed, suggesting the existence of the expenditure-switching effect. The worsening of the current account in response to a fiscal expansion validates the twin-deficit hypothesis in Nigeria. The impact of shocks was found to be more pronounced under the fixed relative to a flexible exchange rate regime. The results make a case for policies that could improve the trade balance and boost productivity complemented by exchange rate flexibility to promote more efficient allocation of resources.","PeriodicalId":15602,"journal":{"name":"Journal of economic development","volume":"45 1","pages":"77-99"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70077300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-01DOI: 10.35866/CAUJED.2020.45.4.001
S. G. Jeanneney, Ping Hua
African countries suffer from a low rate of growth of manufacturing production. Many economists consider that it is due to an overvaluation of their currency. Indeed, several African countries have known an appreciation of their currency, notably against the Chines currency. Moreover, Chinese exports of manufactured goods rose between 2000 and 2015 at the astronomic annual rate of 26% (versus 10% for the rest of the world). This article tries to answer the following questions: what is the impact of the real exchange rates of African countries relative to China on African manufacturing? Is it specific? We estimated a manufacturing function by using a panel data of 44 African countries over the period from 2000 to 2015 and GMM estimator. We built an original set of real exchanges rates, weighted by the share of imports of manufactured goods from the ten main partners, globally and by categories of goods. Contrary to the common opinion, we show that African real appreciation of exchange rates relative to China exerts a positive and specific effect on African manufacturing, despite a traditional negative effect through the competition of China’s exports. We assume that this positive effect is due to productivity improvement. First, we reassure this assumption by several theoretical arguments relative to Schumpeterian “creative destruction,” improvement of labor efficiency, increase of capital-labor ratio. Second, by some specificities of imports from China, which are both consumption goods cheap and bottom of the range covering daily needs, and machines and transport equipment easily bought by medium and small enterprises. Naturally, this positive effect disappears with too strong appreciations. By contrast, we do not find the same positive effect for the rest of the world. Our work has clear political implication, as it does not speak in favor of systematic depreciations of African currencies.
{"title":"When and How African Real Exchange Rates Relative to China Affect its Manufacturing","authors":"S. G. Jeanneney, Ping Hua","doi":"10.35866/CAUJED.2020.45.4.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35866/CAUJED.2020.45.4.001","url":null,"abstract":"African countries suffer from a low rate of growth of manufacturing production. Many economists consider that it is due to an overvaluation of their currency. Indeed, several African countries have known an appreciation of their currency, notably against the Chines currency. Moreover, Chinese exports of manufactured goods rose between 2000 and 2015 at the astronomic annual rate of 26% (versus 10% for the rest of the world). This article tries to answer the following questions: what is the impact of the real exchange rates of African countries relative to China on African manufacturing? Is it specific? We estimated a manufacturing function by using a panel data of 44 African countries over the period from 2000 to 2015 and GMM estimator. We built an original set of real exchanges rates, weighted by the share of imports of manufactured goods from the ten main partners, globally and by categories of goods. Contrary to the common opinion, we show that African real appreciation of exchange rates relative to China exerts a positive and specific effect on African manufacturing, despite a traditional negative effect through the competition of China’s exports. We assume that this positive effect is due to productivity improvement. First, we reassure this assumption by several theoretical arguments relative to Schumpeterian “creative destruction,” improvement of labor efficiency, increase of capital-labor ratio. Second, by some specificities of imports from China, which are both consumption goods cheap and bottom of the range covering daily needs, and machines and transport equipment easily bought by medium and small enterprises. Naturally, this positive effect disappears with too strong appreciations. By contrast, we do not find the same positive effect for the rest of the world. Our work has clear political implication, as it does not speak in favor of systematic depreciations of African currencies.","PeriodicalId":15602,"journal":{"name":"Journal of economic development","volume":"45 1","pages":"1-34"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70078237","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-01DOI: 10.35866/CAUJED.2020.45.3.003
Artatrana Ratha, Eungmin Kang
At more than three times official development aid flows, remittances are now recognized as a key source of scarce foreign exchange for the developing world. Most papers looking into the macroeconomic determinants of remittance inflows tend to be panel, cross-sectional, or qualitative country-specific studies, understandably due a lack of consistent time-series data. We estimate an econometric model using the bounds-testing approach to cointegration and error-correction modeling (Pesaran et al., 2001) on time-series data as well as by employing traditional panel methods on the same data set. It appears that the generalized evidence based on panel or cross-sectional studies may not apply to individual countries.
汇款是官方发展援助流量的三倍以上，现在被认为是发展中国家稀缺外汇的一个主要来源。由于缺乏一致的时间序列数据，大多数研究汇款流入宏观经济决定因素的论文往往是小组研究、横断面研究或针对具体国家的定性研究。我们在时间序列数据上使用协整和纠错建模(Pesaran et al.， 2001)的边界检验方法以及在同一数据集上使用传统的面板方法来估计计量经济模型。基于小组研究或横断面研究的普遍证据似乎不适用于个别国家。
{"title":"Macroeconomic Determinants of International Remittances: Evidence from Time-Series and Panel Methods","authors":"Artatrana Ratha, Eungmin Kang","doi":"10.35866/CAUJED.2020.45.3.003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35866/CAUJED.2020.45.3.003","url":null,"abstract":"At more than three times official development aid flows, remittances are now recognized as a key source of scarce foreign exchange for the developing world. Most papers looking into the macroeconomic determinants of remittance inflows tend to be panel, cross-sectional, or qualitative country-specific studies, understandably due a lack of consistent time-series data. We estimate an econometric model using the bounds-testing approach to cointegration and error-correction modeling (Pesaran et al., 2001) on time-series data as well as by employing traditional panel methods on the same data set. It appears that the generalized evidence based on panel or cross-sectional studies may not apply to individual countries.","PeriodicalId":15602,"journal":{"name":"Journal of economic development","volume":"45 1","pages":"51-76"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70077227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-01DOI: 10.35866/CAUJED.2020.45.4.003
P. Mishra, S. Mishra, M. Sarangi
This paper studies the impact of the development of social sector on the long-run economic growth in the Indian states during 1990-1991 to 2017-2018. It is observed that different States in India are not only spending unequally on social sector activities, but also are giving unequal importance to different components constituting the social sector. This has widened a disparity in the level of social sector development which might have led to an inequality in the human resource development and consequential disproportionate economic growth across the Indian States. The findings of this study have predicted a convergence in the social sector development across the Indian States. In this perspective, the findings of long-run analysis support the existence of an equilibrium relationship between social sector development and economic growth in the country. In addition, public expenditure on the sub-sectors such as family welfare and medical and public health, housing and urban development, water supply and sanitation, and social security and welfare have been found to exert a positive impact on the economic growth of Indian states in the long-run. The findings are critical for the policy circle designing programmes and schemes for the development of social sector to ensure inclusive growth.
{"title":"Social Sector Development and Economic Growth in India, 1990-1991 to 2017-2018","authors":"P. Mishra, S. Mishra, M. Sarangi","doi":"10.35866/CAUJED.2020.45.4.003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35866/CAUJED.2020.45.4.003","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the impact of the development of social sector on the long-run economic growth in the Indian states during 1990-1991 to 2017-2018. It is observed that different States in India are not only spending unequally on social sector activities, but also are giving unequal importance to different components constituting the social sector. This has widened a disparity in the level of social sector development which might have led to an inequality in the human resource development and consequential disproportionate economic growth across the Indian States. The findings of this study have predicted a convergence in the social sector development across the Indian States. In this perspective, the findings of long-run analysis support the existence of an equilibrium relationship between social sector development and economic growth in the country. In addition, public expenditure on the sub-sectors such as family welfare and medical and public health, housing and urban development, water supply and sanitation, and social security and welfare have been found to exert a positive impact on the economic growth of Indian states in the long-run. The findings are critical for the policy circle designing programmes and schemes for the development of social sector to ensure inclusive growth.","PeriodicalId":15602,"journal":{"name":"Journal of economic development","volume":"45 1","pages":"49-68"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70078029","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-06-01DOI: 10.35866/CAUJED.2019.44.2.005
Xing Xu, K. Kalirajan
The objective of this study is to gauge the potential and constraints of China’s low-carbon goods exports by first evaluating its exports performance, then finding the engines for exports growth, using the constant market share (CMS) analysis. The results of the empirical analysis covering the period 2006-2015 indicate that the market distribution effect is the main determinant for China’s low-carbon goods exports growth. While the diversification of China’s low-carbon commodity composition has the potential to increase China’s low-carbon export growth, its low-carbon goods exports appear to be not competitive against the exports from other competitor countries during the period of analysis.
{"title":"HOW IMPORTANT IS MARKET-DISTRIBUTION TO CHINA’S EXPORTS OF LOW-CARBON GOODS?","authors":"Xing Xu, K. Kalirajan","doi":"10.35866/CAUJED.2019.44.2.005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35866/CAUJED.2019.44.2.005","url":null,"abstract":"The objective of this study is to gauge the potential and constraints of China’s low-carbon goods exports by first evaluating its exports performance, then finding the engines for exports growth, using the constant market share (CMS) analysis. The results of the empirical analysis covering the period 2006-2015 indicate that the market distribution effect is the main determinant for China’s low-carbon goods exports growth. While the diversification of China’s low-carbon commodity composition has the potential to increase China’s low-carbon export growth, its low-carbon goods exports appear to be not competitive against the exports from other competitor countries during the period of analysis.","PeriodicalId":15602,"journal":{"name":"Journal of economic development","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42016668","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-06-01DOI: 10.35866/CAUJED.2019.44.2.003
Aleh Mazol
This paper investigates the differences in macroeconomic dynamics that occurred during instabilities in the Belarusian financial market from 2004 to 2016. In this regard, I construct the Belarusian financial stress index (BFSI) as a proxy for financial stress, identify episodes of financial turmoil, assess consequences for the real economy, and examine its interaction with real economic activity and monetary policy using ARDL approach. The results show that during studied period Belarusian economy experienced two episodes of financial stress that coincided with a substantial and prolonged decline in the economic activity. Financial stress has large negative long-run effect on real economic activity. The findings also reveal that price stability is not a sufficient condition to support financial stability in the Belarusian economy.
{"title":"THE INFLUENCE OF FINANCIAL STRESS ON ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND MONETARY POLICY IN BELARUS","authors":"Aleh Mazol","doi":"10.35866/CAUJED.2019.44.2.003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35866/CAUJED.2019.44.2.003","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the differences in macroeconomic dynamics that occurred during instabilities in the Belarusian financial market from 2004 to 2016. In this regard, I construct the Belarusian financial stress index (BFSI) as a proxy for financial stress, identify episodes of financial turmoil, assess consequences for the real economy, and examine its interaction with real economic activity and monetary policy using ARDL approach. The results show that during studied period Belarusian economy experienced two episodes of financial stress that coincided with a substantial and prolonged decline in the economic activity. Financial stress has large negative long-run effect on real economic activity. The findings also reveal that price stability is not a sufficient condition to support financial stability in the Belarusian economy.","PeriodicalId":15602,"journal":{"name":"Journal of economic development","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44021126","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-06-01DOI: 10.35866/CAUJED.2019.44.2.002
R. Grabowski, S. Self
In this paper it is hypothesized that premature deindustrialization is related to the intersectoral terms of trade between agriculture and manufacturing. Using a dualistic model it is shown that factors which raise the price of agricultural goods relative to manufactured goods slow the rate of structural change from agriculture to manufacturing. Data from a number of Southeast Asian countries is used to create a panel data set to test the hypothesis. Indeed a rise in the relative price of agricultural goods does indeed slow structural change and that on important factor raising this relative price ratio has been the elimination of policies which indirectly tax agriculture. The policy implication is that in order to avoid this unexpected consequence of policy reform government policy must be aimed at dramatically increasing productivity growth in agriculture.
{"title":"STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND THE INTERSECTORAL TERMS OF TRADE: SOUTHEAST ASIAN EXPERIENCE","authors":"R. Grabowski, S. Self","doi":"10.35866/CAUJED.2019.44.2.002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35866/CAUJED.2019.44.2.002","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper it is hypothesized that premature deindustrialization is related to the intersectoral terms of trade between agriculture and manufacturing. Using a dualistic model it is shown that factors which raise the price of agricultural goods relative to manufactured goods slow the rate of structural change from agriculture to manufacturing. Data from a number of Southeast Asian countries is used to create a panel data set to test the hypothesis. Indeed a rise in the relative price of agricultural goods does indeed slow structural change and that on important factor raising this relative price ratio has been the elimination of policies which indirectly tax agriculture. The policy implication is that in order to avoid this unexpected consequence of policy reform government policy must be aimed at dramatically increasing productivity growth in agriculture.","PeriodicalId":15602,"journal":{"name":"Journal of economic development","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45343341","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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