首页 > 最新文献

Journal of Energy in Southern Africa最新文献

英文 中文
Offshore wind energy – South Africa’s untapped resource 海上风能——南非尚未开发的资源
4区 工程技术 Q4 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2020-11-30 DOI: 10.17159/2413-3051/2020/v31i4a7940
G. Rae, Gareth Erfort
In the context of the Anthropocene, the decoupling of carbon emissions from electricity generation is critical. South Africa has an ageing coal power fleet, which will gradually be decommissioned over the next 30 years. This creates substantial opportunity for a just transition towards a future energy mix with a high renewable energy penetration. Offshore wind technology is a clean electricity generation alternative that presents great power security and decarbonisation opportunity for South Africa. This study estimated the offshore wind energy resource available within South Africa’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ), using a geographic information system methodology. The available resource was estimated under four developmental scenarios. This study revealed that South Africa has an annual offshore wind energy production potential of 44.52 TWh at ocean depths of less than 50 m (Scenario 1) and 2 387.08 TWh at depths less than 1 000 m (Scenario 2). Furthermore, a GIS-based multi-criteria evaluation was conducted to determine the most suitable locations for offshore wind farm development within the South African EEZ. The following suitable offshore wind development regions were identified: Richards Bay, KwaDukuza, Durban, and Struis Bay. Based on South Africa’s annual electricity consumption of 297.8 TWh in 2018, OWE could theoretically supply approximately 15% and 800% of South Africa’s annual electricity demand with offshore wind development Scenario 1 and 2 respectively.
在人类世的背景下,将碳排放与发电分离是至关重要的。南非的煤电机组老化,将在未来30年逐步退役。这为向具有高可再生能源渗透率的未来能源结构的公正过渡创造了大量机会。海上风电技术是一种清洁发电替代方案,为南非提供了巨大的电力安全和脱碳机会。这项研究使用地理信息系统方法估计了南非专属经济区(EEZ)内可用的海上风能资源。现有资源是在四种发展情况下估计的。该研究表明,南非在50米以下海洋深度(情景1)和1 000米以下海洋深度(情景2)的年海上风电生产潜力分别为44.52太瓦时和2 387.08太瓦时。此外,通过基于gis的多标准评估,确定了南非专属经济区内海上风电场开发的最合适位置。确定了以下合适的海上风电开发区域:Richards Bay, KwaDukuza, Durban和Struis Bay。根据南非2018年的年用电量297.8太瓦时,理论上,通过海上风电开发情景1和情景2,OWE可以分别满足南非年电力需求的15%和800%。
{"title":"Offshore wind energy – South Africa’s untapped resource","authors":"G. Rae, Gareth Erfort","doi":"10.17159/2413-3051/2020/v31i4a7940","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17159/2413-3051/2020/v31i4a7940","url":null,"abstract":"In the context of the Anthropocene, the decoupling of carbon emissions from electricity generation is critical. South Africa has an ageing coal power fleet, which will gradually be decommissioned over the next 30 years. This creates substantial opportunity for a just transition towards a future energy mix with a high renewable energy penetration. Offshore wind technology is a clean electricity generation alternative that presents great power security and decarbonisation opportunity for South Africa. This study estimated the offshore wind energy resource available within South Africa’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ), using a geographic information system methodology. The available resource was estimated under four developmental scenarios. This study revealed that South Africa has an annual offshore wind energy production potential of 44.52 TWh at ocean depths of less than 50 m (Scenario 1) and 2 387.08 TWh at depths less than 1 000 m (Scenario 2). Furthermore, a GIS-based multi-criteria evaluation was conducted to determine the most suitable locations for offshore wind farm development within the South African EEZ. The following suitable offshore wind development regions were identified: Richards Bay, KwaDukuza, Durban, and Struis Bay. Based on South Africa’s annual electricity consumption of 297.8 TWh in 2018, OWE could theoretically supply approximately 15% and 800% of South Africa’s annual electricity demand with offshore wind development Scenario 1 and 2 respectively.","PeriodicalId":15666,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Energy in Southern Africa","volume":"28 1","pages":"26-42"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84426697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Beyond climatic intervention: The social dimension of a biogas project in Sogwala village, Zimbabwe 超越气候干预:津巴布韦Sogwala村沼气项目的社会维度
4区 工程技术 Q4 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2020-11-21 DOI: 10.17159/2413-3051/2020/v31i4a8924
Nyaradzo Dhliwayo, N. Chanza, A. D. de Wit
There is now considerable interest to understand how local communities experiencing climatic risks can benefit from climate change responses. As this agenda unfolds, there is need to understand the impact of climaterelated interventions from the perspective of local populations targeted by such projects. Existing assessment approaches tend to concentrate on the environmental and economic impacts of projects that minimise greenhouse gas emissions. This study assesses the social aspect of a domestic biogas project that was intended to address the twin challenges of poverty and climate change in Sogwala village, Zimbabwe. A three-tier methodological execution process was adopted, involving field reconnaissance, household survey and key informant interviews. The focus was on measuring the social dimension of the changes brought about by the project, from the experiences of participating households. With a consciousness of assessment challenges associated with community projects, social capital parameters were used to assess the project’s contribution to the social wellbeing of the villagers. Overall, results show that the biogas project has the potential to facilitate social development through improved trust and social networks. Despite the contested climatic benefits associated with small-scale household biogas digesters, projects of this nature can enhance community relationships and networks, upon which other development interventions can be operationalised.
现在,人们对了解当地社区如何从气候变化应对措施中受益非常感兴趣。随着这一议程的展开,有必要从这些项目所针对的当地人口的角度来理解与气候相关的干预措施的影响。现有的评估方法往往侧重于减少温室气体排放的项目的环境和经济影响。本研究评估了一个国内沼气项目的社会方面,该项目旨在解决津巴布韦Sogwala村贫困和气候变化的双重挑战。采用了三层方法执行程序,包括实地侦察、住户调查和关键线人访谈。重点是从参与家庭的经验来衡量项目带来的变化的社会层面。考虑到与社区项目相关的评估挑战,我们使用社会资本参数来评估项目对村民社会福利的贡献。总体而言,结果表明,沼气项目有潜力通过改善信任和社会网络来促进社会发展。尽管小型家用沼气池的气候效益存在争议,但这种性质的项目可以加强社区关系和网络,从而可以实施其他发展干预措施。
{"title":"Beyond climatic intervention: The social dimension of a biogas project in Sogwala village, Zimbabwe","authors":"Nyaradzo Dhliwayo, N. Chanza, A. D. de Wit","doi":"10.17159/2413-3051/2020/v31i4a8924","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17159/2413-3051/2020/v31i4a8924","url":null,"abstract":"There is now considerable interest to understand how local communities experiencing climatic risks can benefit from climate change responses. As this agenda unfolds, there is need to understand the impact of climaterelated interventions from the perspective of local populations targeted by such projects. Existing assessment approaches tend to concentrate on the environmental and economic impacts of projects that minimise greenhouse gas emissions. This study assesses the social aspect of a domestic biogas project that was intended to address the twin challenges of poverty and climate change in Sogwala village, Zimbabwe. A three-tier methodological execution process was adopted, involving field reconnaissance, household survey and key informant interviews. The focus was on measuring the social dimension of the changes brought about by the project, from the experiences of participating households. With a consciousness of assessment challenges associated with community projects, social capital parameters were used to assess the project’s contribution to the social wellbeing of the villagers. Overall, results show that the biogas project has the potential to facilitate social development through improved trust and social networks. Despite the contested climatic benefits associated with small-scale household biogas digesters, projects of this nature can enhance community relationships and networks, upon which other development interventions can be operationalised.","PeriodicalId":15666,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Energy in Southern Africa","volume":"4 1","pages":"43-56"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89350941","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The effect of different working fluids and internal geometries on the efficiency of evacuated tube heat pipe solar collectors 不同工质和内部几何形状对真空管热管太阳能集热器效率的影响
4区 工程技术 Q4 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2020-11-21 DOI: 10.17159/2413-3051/2020/v31i4a8480
Jean Gad Mukuna, J. Gryzagoridis
In this study, a heat pipe was modified with designed and manufactured inserts of specific profiles in order to investigate the effect of the internal geometries and working fluids on the efficiency of the evacuated tube heat pipe solar collector. The experimental rig was made of a mobile frame, an insulated water tank, a solar simulator and an evacuated tube heat pipe. Using an average irradiance of 700 watts per square meter, the indoor tests were conducted first on a heat pipe without any working fluid (dry mode) and later on the heat pipe containing, in turn, each of the six working fluids for each of the five geometries. Results show that, when inserting different profiles in the heat pipe, there is an enhancement of the heat transfer and hence an increase in the efficiency of the evacuated heat pipe solar collector.
为了研究真空管热管太阳能集热器内部几何形状和工作流体对集热器效率的影响,采用设计和制造的特殊形状的插片对热管进行了改造。实验装置由一个移动框架、一个隔热水箱、一个太阳能模拟器和一个真空管热管组成。使用每平方米700瓦的平均辐照度,首先在没有任何工作流体(干燥模式)的热管上进行室内试验,然后在热管上依次为五种几何形状中的每一种含有六种工作流体的热管上进行试验。结果表明,当在热管中插入不同的型材时,真空热管太阳能集热器的传热增强,从而提高了集热器的效率。
{"title":"The effect of different working fluids and internal geometries on the efficiency of evacuated tube heat pipe solar collectors","authors":"Jean Gad Mukuna, J. Gryzagoridis","doi":"10.17159/2413-3051/2020/v31i4a8480","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17159/2413-3051/2020/v31i4a8480","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, a heat pipe was modified with designed and manufactured inserts of specific profiles in order to investigate the effect of the internal geometries and working fluids on the efficiency of the evacuated tube heat pipe solar collector. The experimental rig was made of a mobile frame, an insulated water tank, a solar simulator and an evacuated tube heat pipe. Using an average irradiance of 700 watts per square meter, the indoor tests were conducted first on a heat pipe without any working fluid (dry mode) and later on the heat pipe containing, in turn, each of the six working fluids for each of the five geometries. Results show that, when inserting different profiles in the heat pipe, there is an enhancement of the heat transfer and hence an increase in the efficiency of the evacuated heat pipe solar collector.","PeriodicalId":15666,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Energy in Southern Africa","volume":"56 1","pages":"16-25"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85959257","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Russian energy projects in South Africa 俄罗斯在南非的能源项目
4区 工程技术 Q4 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2020-10-20 DOI: 10.17159/2413-3051/2020/v31i3a7809
J. An, A. Mikhaylov
From early 2019, South Africa and Russia have planned to increase their energy trade. Russia can become one of the world’s five largest energy exporters. This study examines of the cost of a kilowatt of electricity generated by coal power projects in South Africa and compares nuclear electricity with other types of green energy. This method must help to improve the management decision-making process in South Africa for energy exporta. Reasons for this persistence include the marketing strategies of Russian companies for seeking new markets in industrialised and postindustrial countries where, due to intensive competition, sales of Russian high-tech products are often unsuccessful. Renewable energy gives a chance to potentially reduce poverty in South Africa. The study concludes that imported crude oil is more suited to the needs of the refining industry of South Africa. The consumption for this type of energy in areas not concerning industry is insignificant and its increase is unlikely to be observed in the future. Highlights• Nuclear energy is popular energy source in South Africa now.• Provision of sustainable energy services helps to find the sources for economic growth. • Renewable energy technologies have opportunity for reduce nuclear production in South Africa.• Bio-energy can become the main source of energy in South Africa.
从2019年初开始,南非和俄罗斯计划增加能源贸易。俄罗斯可以成为世界五大能源出口国之一。本研究考察了南非燃煤发电项目每千瓦电力的成本,并将核电与其他类型的绿色能源进行了比较。这种方法必须有助于改善南非能源出口的管理决策过程。这种坚持的原因包括俄罗斯公司在工业化国家和后工业化国家寻求新市场的营销战略,在这些国家,由于激烈的竞争,俄罗斯高科技产品的销售往往不成功。可再生能源提供了一个可能减少南非贫困的机会。研究得出结论,进口原油更适合南非炼油工业的需求。在与工业无关的领域,这类能源的消费是微不足道的,未来不太可能观察到其增长。•核能是南非目前最受欢迎的能源。•提供可持续能源服务有助于找到经济增长的来源。•可再生能源技术有机会减少南非的核能生产。•生物能源可以成为南非的主要能源。
{"title":"Russian energy projects in South Africa","authors":"J. An, A. Mikhaylov","doi":"10.17159/2413-3051/2020/v31i3a7809","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17159/2413-3051/2020/v31i3a7809","url":null,"abstract":"From early 2019, South Africa and Russia have planned to increase their energy trade. Russia can become one of the world’s five largest energy exporters. This study examines of the cost of a kilowatt of electricity generated by coal power projects in South Africa and compares nuclear electricity with other types of green energy. This method must help to improve the management decision-making process in South Africa for energy exporta. Reasons for this persistence include the marketing strategies of Russian companies for seeking new markets in industrialised and postindustrial countries where, due to intensive competition, sales of Russian high-tech products are often unsuccessful. Renewable energy gives a chance to potentially reduce poverty in South Africa. The study concludes that imported crude oil is more suited to the needs of the refining industry of South Africa. The consumption for this type of energy in areas not concerning industry is insignificant and its increase is unlikely to be observed in the future. Highlights• Nuclear energy is popular energy source in South Africa now.• Provision of sustainable energy services helps to find the sources for economic growth. • Renewable energy technologies have opportunity for reduce nuclear production in South Africa.• Bio-energy can become the main source of energy in South Africa.","PeriodicalId":15666,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Energy in Southern Africa","volume":"77 1","pages":"58-64"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72822180","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 60
Design of an electrostatic precipitator for a novel bituminous coal-fired circulating fluidised bed combustion power plant in Namibia 纳米比亚新型燃煤烟煤循环流化床燃烧电厂静电除尘器设计
4区 工程技术 Q4 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2020-10-20 DOI: 10.17159/2413-3051/2020/v31i3a8752
Eliaser T. Nghishiyeleke, Vallentinus M. Kemba, Alexander M. S. Endunde, Melvin M. Mashingaidze
Coal-fired power plants utilising fluidised bed technologies emit copious amounts of fly-ash, which is harmful to people owing to its particulate nature. A planned 300 MW power plant will have an electrostatic precipitator (ESP) for fly-ash emissions control, in line with power generation industry best practices. This ESP should meet a fly-ash emission limit value ≤ 50 mg/Nm3. This paper details the design process and resultant technical specifications of a coldside, single-stage, and plate-wire dry ESP designed for the power plant. The ESP will consist of twin-chambers with quadruple-fields (2 × 4 × 315 m3) and octonary bus-sections independently energised by individual high-frequency three-phase switched integrated rectifiers (70 kV, 800 mA) to maximise ionisation. Dynamically balanced, singleimpact, tumbling hammer rappers (857.5 rpm) will dislodge fly-ash from the collector plates into mass-flow wedgeshaped hoppers. A specific collection area (≥ 56.9 m2/m3/s) and an ESP index (≥ 709.2 (kV/cm)2m2/m3/s) should guarantee a collection efficiency ( η ≥ 99.5 %) and the specified emission limit value at 100 % boiler capacity and normal operating conditions (gas velocity ≤ 2.4 m/s; gas temperature ≤ 137 °C; fly-ash loading ≤ 10 000 kg/Nm3; resistivity ≤ 1010 Ω‧cm). The design was successfully verified in principle using the validation square method, in conjunction with the leading comparable historical case studies approach. It is recommended to simulate ESP designs using suitable programs like Comsol Multiphysics and construct a pilot plant before attempting scaled-up construction and commissioning.
利用流化床技术的燃煤电厂排放大量的粉煤灰,由于其颗粒性质对人体有害。按照发电行业的最佳实践,一个计划中的300兆瓦发电厂将配备一个静电除尘器(ESP)来控制粉煤灰排放。本ESP应满足粉煤灰排放限值≤50mg /Nm3。本文详细介绍了电厂冷侧、单级、板线式干式电除尘器的设计过程和技术指标。ESP将由双腔四场(2 × 4 × 315 m3)和八单元母线组成,由单个高频三相开关集成整流器(70 kV, 800 mA)独立供电,以最大限度地电离。动态平衡,单冲击,翻滚锤式rappers(857.5转/分)将粉煤灰从收集板到大流量楔形漏斗。特定的收集面积(≥56.9 m2/m3/s)和ESP指数(≥709.2 (kV/cm)2m2/m3/s)应保证在100%锅炉容量和正常运行条件下(气速≤2.4 m/s;气体温度≤137℃;粉煤灰装载量≤10000kg /Nm3;电阻率≤1010 Ω·cm)。利用验证方法,结合领先的可比历史案例研究方法,在原则上成功地验证了该设计。建议使用合适的程序(如Comsol Multiphysics)模拟ESP设计,并在尝试大规模建造和调试之前建立一个中试工厂。
{"title":"Design of an electrostatic precipitator for a novel bituminous coal-fired circulating fluidised bed combustion power plant in Namibia","authors":"Eliaser T. Nghishiyeleke, Vallentinus M. Kemba, Alexander M. S. Endunde, Melvin M. Mashingaidze","doi":"10.17159/2413-3051/2020/v31i3a8752","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17159/2413-3051/2020/v31i3a8752","url":null,"abstract":"Coal-fired power plants utilising fluidised bed technologies emit copious amounts of fly-ash, which is harmful to people owing to its particulate nature. A planned 300 MW power plant will have an electrostatic precipitator (ESP) for fly-ash emissions control, in line with power generation industry best practices. This ESP should meet a fly-ash emission limit value ≤ 50 mg/Nm3. This paper details the design process and resultant technical specifications of a coldside, single-stage, and plate-wire dry ESP designed for the power plant. The ESP will consist of twin-chambers with quadruple-fields (2 × 4 × 315 m3) and octonary bus-sections independently energised by individual high-frequency three-phase switched integrated rectifiers (70 kV, 800 mA) to maximise ionisation. Dynamically balanced, singleimpact, tumbling hammer rappers (857.5 rpm) will dislodge fly-ash from the collector plates into mass-flow wedgeshaped hoppers. A specific collection area (≥ 56.9 m2/m3/s) and an ESP index (≥ 709.2 (kV/cm)2m2/m3/s) should guarantee a collection efficiency ( η ≥ 99.5 %) and the specified emission limit value at 100 % boiler capacity and normal operating conditions (gas velocity ≤ 2.4 m/s; gas temperature ≤ 137 °C; fly-ash loading ≤ 10 000 kg/Nm3; resistivity ≤ 1010 Ω‧cm). The design was successfully verified in principle using the validation square method, in conjunction with the leading comparable historical case studies approach. It is recommended to simulate ESP designs using suitable programs like Comsol Multiphysics and construct a pilot plant before attempting scaled-up construction and commissioning.","PeriodicalId":15666,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Energy in Southern Africa","volume":"59 1","pages":"38-57"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80765020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Intelligent techniques, harmonically coupled and SARIMA models in forecasting solar radiation data: A hybridization approach 智能技术、谐波耦合和SARIMA模型在预测太阳辐射数据中的应用:一种杂交方法
4区 工程技术 Q4 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2020-10-20 DOI: 10.17159/2413-3051/2020/v31i3a7754
K. S. Sivhugwana, E. Ranganai
The unsteady and intermittent feature (mainly due to atmospheric mechanisms and diurnal cycles) of solar energy resource is often a stumbling block, due to its unpredictable nature, to receiving high-intensity levels of solar radiation at ground level. Hence, there has been a growing demand for accurate solar irradiance forecasts that properly explain the mixture of deterministic and stochastic characteristic (which may be linear or nonlinear) in which solar radiation presents itself on the earth’s surface. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models are popular for accurately modelling linearity, whilst the neural networks effectively capture the aspect of nonlinearity embedded in solar radiation data at ground level. This comparative study couples sinusoidal predictors at specified harmonic frequencies with SARIMA models, neural network autoregression (NNAR) models and the hybrid (SARIMA-NNAR) models to form the respective harmonically coupled models, namely, HCSARIMA models, HCNNAR models and HCSARIMA-NNAR models, with the sinusoidal predictor function, SARIMA, and NNAR parts capturing the deterministic, linear and nonlinear components, respectively. These models are used to forecast 10-minutely and 60-minutely averaged global horizontal irradiance data series obtained from the RVD Richtersveld solar radiometric station in the Northern Cape, South Africa. The forecasting accuracy of the three above-mentioned models is undertaken based on the relative mean square error, mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error. The HCNNAR model and HCSARIMA-NNAR model gave more accurate forecasting results for 60-minutely and 10-minutely data, respectively. Highlights HCSARIMA models were outperformed by both HCNNAR models and HCSARIMA-NNAR models in the forecasting arena. HCNNAR models were most appropriate for forecasting larger time scales (i.e. 60-minutely). HCSARIMA-NNAR models were most appropriate for forecasting smaller time scales (i.e. 10-minutely). Models fitted on the January data series performed better than those fitted on the June data series.
太阳能资源的不稳定和间歇性(主要受大气机制和日循环的影响)由于其不可预测的性质,往往成为地面接收高强度太阳辐射的绊脚石。因此,对准确的太阳辐照度预测的需求日益增长,这种预测可以适当地解释太阳辐射在地球表面上呈现的确定性和随机特性(可能是线性的或非线性的)的混合。季节性自回归积分移动平均(SARIMA)模型因其能准确地模拟线性而广受欢迎,而神经网络则能有效地捕捉地表太阳辐射数据中嵌入的非线性方面。本研究将特定谐波频率下的正弦预测函数与SARIMA模型、神经网络自回归(NNAR)模型和混合(SARIMA-NNAR)模型耦合,形成各自的谐波耦合模型,即HCSARIMA模型、HCNNAR模型和HCSARIMA-NNAR模型,其中正弦预测函数SARIMA和NNAR部分分别捕获确定性、线性和非线性分量。这些模式用于预测从南非北开普的RVD Richtersveld太阳辐射测量站获得的10分钟和60分钟平均全球水平辐照度数据系列。上述三种模型的预测精度是根据相对均方误差、平均绝对误差和平均绝对百分比误差来进行的。HCNNAR模型和HCSARIMA-NNAR模型分别对60分钟和10分钟的数据给出了更准确的预测结果。HCSARIMA模型在预测领域的表现优于HCNNAR模型和HCSARIMA- nnar模型。HCNNAR模型最适合预测较大的时间尺度(即60分钟)。HCSARIMA-NNAR模型最适合预测较小的时间尺度(即10分钟)。1月份数据序列的模型比6月份数据序列的模型表现得更好。
{"title":"Intelligent techniques, harmonically coupled and SARIMA models in forecasting solar radiation data: A hybridization approach","authors":"K. S. Sivhugwana, E. Ranganai","doi":"10.17159/2413-3051/2020/v31i3a7754","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17159/2413-3051/2020/v31i3a7754","url":null,"abstract":"The unsteady and intermittent feature (mainly due to atmospheric mechanisms and diurnal cycles) of solar energy resource is often a stumbling block, due to its unpredictable nature, to receiving high-intensity levels of solar radiation at ground level. Hence, there has been a growing demand for accurate solar irradiance forecasts that properly explain the mixture of deterministic and stochastic characteristic (which may be linear or nonlinear) in which solar radiation presents itself on the earth’s surface. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models are popular for accurately modelling linearity, whilst the neural networks effectively capture the aspect of nonlinearity embedded in solar radiation data at ground level. This comparative study couples sinusoidal predictors at specified harmonic frequencies with SARIMA models, neural network autoregression (NNAR) models and the hybrid (SARIMA-NNAR) models to form the respective harmonically coupled models, namely, HCSARIMA models, HCNNAR models and HCSARIMA-NNAR models, with the sinusoidal predictor function, SARIMA, and NNAR parts capturing the deterministic, linear and nonlinear components, respectively. These models are used to forecast 10-minutely and 60-minutely averaged global horizontal irradiance data series obtained from the RVD Richtersveld solar radiometric station in the Northern Cape, South Africa. The forecasting accuracy of the three above-mentioned models is undertaken based on the relative mean square error, mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error. The HCNNAR model and HCSARIMA-NNAR model gave more accurate forecasting results for 60-minutely and 10-minutely data, respectively. \u0000Highlights \u0000 \u0000HCSARIMA models were outperformed by both HCNNAR models and HCSARIMA-NNAR models in the forecasting arena. \u0000HCNNAR models were most appropriate for forecasting larger time scales (i.e. 60-minutely). \u0000HCSARIMA-NNAR models were most appropriate for forecasting smaller time scales (i.e. 10-minutely). \u0000Models fitted on the January data series performed better than those fitted on the June data series. \u0000","PeriodicalId":15666,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Energy in Southern Africa","volume":"135 1","pages":"14-37"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76733602","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
The adoption of energy efficiency and a policy framework for Zimbabwe 津巴布韦采用能源效率和政策框架
4区 工程技术 Q4 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2020-10-20 DOI: 10.17159/2413-3051/2020/v31i3a8002
O. Dzobo, H. Tazvinga, C. Chihobo, E. Chikuni
Recent policy discussions on energy use in Zimbabwe sparked interest in the economic case for energy efficiency, suggesting the need to investigate the relevant costs and benefits. This paper investigated the potential of energy efficiency in manufacturing industries in Zimbabwe. Data collection was done using questionnaires, walk-through audits and semi-structured interviews. The data set was then analysed using regression analysis. The results show that there would be significant potential energy saving in Zimbabwe through adopting various energy efficiency programmes. The main energy efficiency barriers identified were: poorly structured electricity tariffs; risk of production disruption; resistance of operational staff to a changed working style; lack of coordination between company divisions; lack of information on energy efficiency programmes; and lack of support from senior management on issues that relate to energy efficiency. A straightforward energy efficiency policy framework is proposed, and three main players identified, namely government, energy regulator, and research institutions.
最近关于津巴布韦能源使用的政策讨论引起了人们对能源效率的经济案例的兴趣,这表明有必要调查相关的成本和收益。本文调查了津巴布韦制造业能源效率的潜力。数据收集是通过问卷调查、演练审计和半结构化访谈来完成的。然后使用回归分析对数据集进行分析。结果表明,通过采用各种能源效率方案,津巴布韦将有显着的节能潜力。确定的主要能源效率障碍是:电价结构不合理;生产中断的风险;业务人员对工作方式改变的抗拒;公司各部门之间缺乏协调;缺乏关于能源效率方案的资料;在与能源效率有关的问题上缺乏高级管理层的支持。提出了一个简单的能源效率政策框架,并确定了三个主要参与者,即政府、能源监管机构和研究机构。
{"title":"The adoption of energy efficiency and a policy framework for Zimbabwe","authors":"O. Dzobo, H. Tazvinga, C. Chihobo, E. Chikuni","doi":"10.17159/2413-3051/2020/v31i3a8002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17159/2413-3051/2020/v31i3a8002","url":null,"abstract":"Recent policy discussions on energy use in Zimbabwe sparked interest in the economic case for energy efficiency, suggesting the need to investigate the relevant costs and benefits. This paper investigated the potential of energy efficiency in manufacturing industries in Zimbabwe. Data collection was done using questionnaires, walk-through audits and semi-structured interviews. The data set was then analysed using regression analysis. The results show that there would be significant potential energy saving in Zimbabwe through adopting various energy efficiency programmes. The main energy efficiency barriers identified were: poorly structured electricity tariffs; risk of production disruption; resistance of operational staff to a changed working style; lack of coordination between company divisions; lack of information on energy efficiency programmes; and lack of support from senior management on issues that relate to energy efficiency. A straightforward energy efficiency policy framework is proposed, and three main players identified, namely government, energy regulator, and research institutions.","PeriodicalId":15666,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Energy in Southern Africa","volume":"174 1","pages":"1-13"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82957575","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Towards sustainable energy system options for improving energy access in Southern Africa 为改善南部非洲的能源获取,制订可持续能源系统备选办法
4区 工程技术 Q4 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2020-06-14 DOI: 10.17159/2413-3051/2020/v31i1a6504
H. Tazvinga, O. Dzobo, M. Mapako
Access to modern energy services is one of the pre-requisites to improved livelihood, yet the poor, particularly in developing countries, remain tied to unhealthy and inefficient traditional fuels. Renewable energy technologies are increasingly popular energy supply alternatives to fossil-based fuels in many countries. This study presents sustainable energy system implementation options for increasing energy access in developing countries, with special emphasis on Sub-Saharan Africa. A feasibility case study and various implementation options are presented for possible deployment of these systems. Hybrid optimization of multiple energy resources software was used to simulate and validate the proposed hybrid system design and performance. The simulation results indicate that hybrid systems would be feasible options for distributed generation of electric power for remote locations and areas not connected to the electricity grid. Such a hybrid energy system, through providing modern energy services, gives promise to free-up rural communities to engage in productive activities. The opportunity to power or facilitate productive activities such as agro-processing, fabrication and services can potentially reduce poverty.
获得现代能源服务是改善生计的先决条件之一,但穷人,特别是发展中国家的穷人,仍然受制于不健康和低效的传统燃料。在许多国家,可再生能源技术日益成为化石燃料的替代能源。本研究提出了可持续能源系统实施方案,以增加发展中国家的能源获取,特别强调撒哈拉以南非洲。为这些系统的可能部署,提出了可行性案例研究和各种实施方案。利用多能源混合优化软件对所提出的混合系统设计和性能进行了仿真验证。仿真结果表明,对于偏远地区和未接入电网的地区,混合动力系统是分布式发电的可行选择。这种混合能源系统通过提供现代能源服务,为解放农村社区从事生产活动提供了希望。为农业加工、制造和服务等生产活动提供动力或便利的机会可能会减少贫困。
{"title":"Towards sustainable energy system options for improving energy access in Southern Africa","authors":"H. Tazvinga, O. Dzobo, M. Mapako","doi":"10.17159/2413-3051/2020/v31i1a6504","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17159/2413-3051/2020/v31i1a6504","url":null,"abstract":"Access to modern energy services is one of the pre-requisites to improved livelihood, yet the poor, particularly in developing countries, remain tied to unhealthy and inefficient traditional fuels. Renewable energy technologies are increasingly popular energy supply alternatives to fossil-based fuels in many countries. This study presents sustainable energy system implementation options for increasing energy access in developing countries, with special emphasis on Sub-Saharan Africa. A feasibility case study and various implementation options are presented for possible deployment of these systems. Hybrid optimization of multiple energy resources software was used to simulate and validate the proposed hybrid system design and performance. The simulation results indicate that hybrid systems would be feasible options for distributed generation of electric power for remote locations and areas not connected to the electricity grid. Such a hybrid energy system, through providing modern energy services, gives promise to free-up rural communities to engage in productive activities. The opportunity to power or facilitate productive activities such as agro-processing, fabrication and services can potentially reduce poverty.","PeriodicalId":15666,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Energy in Southern Africa","volume":"65 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86251616","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
An exploratory study of the South African concentrated solar power sector using the technological innovation systems framework 利用技术创新系统框架对南非聚光太阳能部门进行探索性研究
4区 工程技术 Q4 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2020-06-14 DOI: 10.17159/2413-3051/2020/V31I2A7725
S. Potts, D. Walwyn
Wide-scale deployment of variable renewable energy (wind and solar photovoltaic) is constrained by its associated requirements for energy storage, the technologies for which are currently too expensive to be routinely used. Concentrated solar power (CSP), with its inherent storage capacity, offers semi-dispatchable electricity at large scale. However, its deployment to date has been restricted by high capital costs and the limited geographical locations with optimal solar radiation to attain required efficiencies. South Africa, with its abundant solar resources, has the potential to develop an export-competitive CSP industry by leveraging existing capabilities in innovation, manufacturing and construction, but has yet to attain this goal. This study applied a qualitative, exploratory approach and the framework of technological innovation systems (TIS) to understand the factors that are currently prohibiting the country from being a global leader in CSP. The assessment has revealed the presence of largely immature TIS, characterised by a heavy reliance on imported technology and market support from the state-supported procurement programme. The advancement of CSP remains contingent on further allocation of CSP procurement targets in this programme and sufficient support to develop entrepreneurial activity. An integrated industrial policy strategy, which can ensure technology transfer and address the high cost of CSP, is recommended as a means of addressing the barriers to its development as a competitive industry.
可变可再生能源(风能和太阳能光伏)的大规模部署受到其相关能源存储要求的限制,这些技术目前过于昂贵,无法常规使用。聚光太阳能发电(CSP)以其固有的存储能力,提供了大规模的半可调度电力。然而,迄今为止,其部署受到高资本成本和最佳太阳辐射地理位置有限的限制,无法达到所需的效率。南非拥有丰富的太阳能资源,有潜力通过利用现有的创新、制造和建筑能力发展具有出口竞争力的光热发电产业,但尚未实现这一目标。本研究采用定性、探索性方法和技术创新系统(TIS)框架来了解目前阻碍该国成为CSP全球领导者的因素。评估显示,存在很大程度上不成熟的TIS,其特点是严重依赖进口技术和国家支持的采购计划的市场支持。CSP的进展仍然取决于本方案中CSP采购指标的进一步分配和对发展企业活动的充分支持。建议采取一项综合工业政策战略,以确保技术转让和解决光热发电的高成本问题,作为解决阻碍其发展为竞争性工业的障碍的手段。
{"title":"An exploratory study of the South African concentrated solar power sector using the technological innovation systems framework","authors":"S. Potts, D. Walwyn","doi":"10.17159/2413-3051/2020/V31I2A7725","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17159/2413-3051/2020/V31I2A7725","url":null,"abstract":"Wide-scale deployment of variable renewable energy (wind and solar photovoltaic) is constrained by its associated requirements for energy storage, the technologies for which are currently too expensive to be routinely used. Concentrated solar power (CSP), with its inherent storage capacity, offers semi-dispatchable electricity at large scale. However, its deployment to date has been restricted by high capital costs and the limited geographical locations with optimal solar radiation to attain required efficiencies. South Africa, with its abundant solar resources, has the potential to develop an export-competitive CSP industry by leveraging existing capabilities in innovation, manufacturing and construction, but has yet to attain this goal. This study applied a qualitative, exploratory approach and the framework of technological innovation systems (TIS) to understand the factors that are currently prohibiting the country from being a global leader in CSP. The assessment has revealed the presence of largely immature TIS, characterised by a heavy reliance on imported technology and market support from the state-supported procurement programme. The advancement of CSP remains contingent on further allocation of CSP procurement targets in this programme and sufficient support to develop entrepreneurial activity. An integrated industrial policy strategy, which can ensure technology transfer and address the high cost of CSP, is recommended as a means of addressing the barriers to its development as a competitive industry.","PeriodicalId":15666,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Energy in Southern Africa","volume":"70 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77382643","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Differentiation of paediatric burn injury by household energy source in South Africa 南非儿童烧伤的家庭能源分化
4区 工程技术 Q4 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2020-06-14 DOI: 10.17159/2413-3051/2020/v31i1a8096
R. Govender, D. Kimemia, N. Hornsby, A. van Niekerk
Burn injuries remain a significant cause of death and disability in the global south, with children amongst the most vulnerable. In South Africa, burns are a critical health and economic burden in densely populated and energy-impoverished communities. This study used secondary data on burn injuries from 19 health facilities to differentiate between risk for scalds and flame burns across three household energy sources (firewood, paraffin and electricity). The sample was 2 933 cases of child burn victims, with key analytical procedures being descriptive statistics and logistic regression analysis. Results showed that 52% of burn injury admissions reported electricity as the household energy source used at the time of injury. Most burn injuries were scalds (85.3%), with infants and toddlers at greatest risk. The differentiation between wood and paraffin was associated with a threefold increase in scalds relative to flame burns, while that between paraffin and electricity indicated a sevenfold increase in scalds and nineteen times such an increase between wood and electricity. This was an indication of continued challenges for the country in addressing paediatric burns despite, and in the context of, the continued electrification of poor households. The study recommends improved regulation of electrical appliances used by low-income households, and targeted household safety education initiatives.
在全球南方,烧伤仍然是造成死亡和残疾的一个重要原因,其中儿童是最脆弱的。在南非,在人口密集和能源匮乏的社区,烧伤是一个严重的健康和经济负担。本研究使用了来自19个卫生机构的烧伤二级数据,以区分三种家庭能源(木柴、石蜡和电力)的烫伤和火焰烧伤风险。样本为2933例烧伤儿童,主要分析方法为描述性统计和logistic回归分析。结果显示,52%的烧伤入院者报告说,受伤时使用的家庭能源是电。大多数烧伤是烫伤(85.3%),婴幼儿的风险最大。木材和石蜡的区别表明,相对于火焰燃烧,烫伤的发生率增加了三倍,而石蜡和电的区别表明,烫伤的发生率增加了七倍,木材和电的区别表明,烫伤的发生率增加了十九倍。这表明,尽管贫困家庭继续通电,而且在此背景下,该国在解决儿科烧伤问题方面仍面临挑战。该研究建议加强对低收入家庭使用的电器的监管,并有针对性地开展家庭安全教育活动。
{"title":"Differentiation of paediatric burn injury by household energy source in South Africa","authors":"R. Govender, D. Kimemia, N. Hornsby, A. van Niekerk","doi":"10.17159/2413-3051/2020/v31i1a8096","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17159/2413-3051/2020/v31i1a8096","url":null,"abstract":"Burn injuries remain a significant cause of death and disability in the global south, with children amongst the most vulnerable. In South Africa, burns are a critical health and economic burden in densely populated and energy-impoverished communities. This study used secondary data on burn injuries from 19 health facilities to differentiate between risk for scalds and flame burns across three household energy sources (firewood, paraffin and electricity). The sample was 2 933 cases of child burn victims, with key analytical procedures being descriptive statistics and logistic regression analysis. Results showed that 52% of burn injury admissions reported electricity as the household energy source used at the time of injury. Most burn injuries were scalds (85.3%), with infants and toddlers at greatest risk. The differentiation between wood and paraffin was associated with a threefold increase in scalds relative to flame burns, while that between paraffin and electricity indicated a sevenfold increase in scalds and nineteen times such an increase between wood and electricity. This was an indication of continued challenges for the country in addressing paediatric burns despite, and in the context of, the continued electrification of poor households. The study recommends improved regulation of electrical appliances used by low-income households, and targeted household safety education initiatives.","PeriodicalId":15666,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Energy in Southern Africa","volume":"78 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78860961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
期刊
Journal of Energy in Southern Africa
全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1