Journal of Epidemiology最新文献

Background: The influence of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic on dental care utilization may have differed according to individual characteristics or type of dental care provision. This study aimed to evaluate the changes in dental care utilization and per-attendance costs by age group and type of dental care during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan.

Methods: This time-series study used healthcare insurance claims data from 01/07/2019 to 09/27/2021 (143 weeks) from nine municipalities in Japan. Dental care utilization rate per week and average dental care cost per attendance by age groups (0–19y/20–64y/65–74y/≥ 75y) and types of dental care (outpatient/visiting) were used as outcome variables. COVID-19 pandemic waves in Japan were used as predictors: 1^st (03/23/2020–05/17/2020), 2^nd (06/22/2020–09/27/2020), 3^rd (10/26/2020–02/21/2021), 4^th (02/22/2021–06/07/2021), and 5^th (07/05/2021–09/13/2021) waves. Fixed effect models were employed to estimate the proportional changes.

Results: In the fixed effect model, we observed large declines in dental care utilization during the 1^st (17.0–22.0%) and 2^nd waves (3.0–13.0%) compared to the non-pandemic wave period in all age groups. In contrast, the average dental care cost per attendance increased in all age groups by 5.2–8.6% during the 1^st wave.

Conclusions: During the initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan, dental care utilization decreased in all age groups, whereas the average dental care cost per attendance increased. The COVID-19 pandemic may have changed the dental care provision pattern towards less frequent and more concentrated dental care to avoid the risk of infection.

Background: Disaster survivors experience deterioration in lifestyles and an increase in constipation. After the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, some survivors were evacuated for a long term, even after moving to temporary housing and public reconstruction housing. However, annual changes in constipation and the association between lifestyles and constipation among the survivors are still unknown.

Methods: Overall, 9,234 survivors aged 18 years or older participated in this 9-year follow-up survey after the disaster. Information about the prevalence of constipation and lifestyle factors (diet, physical activity, and mental health) was collected using a self-reported questionnaire. Their dietary intake was categorized into the following two dietary patterns: prudent (fish and shellfish, soybean products, vegetables, fruits, and dairy products) and meat (meat and eggs). Odds ratios for constipation according to lifestyle factors were calculated using a generalized linear mixed model.

Results: In women, the prevalence of constipation was the highest at baseline (8.7%) and remained around 5% afterward. In both men and women, older age, poor mental health, and poor physical activity were significantly associated with higher odds ratios of constipation. Moreover, a lower frequency of meals and a lower prudent dietary score were significantly associated with women's constipation.

Conclusion: The prevalence of constipation was the highest at baseline and remained around 5% in women. Lifestyle factors, such as poor mental health, physical inactivity, and low frequency of meals were associated with constipation. Our findings suggest continuous support for the survivors with constipation for medium- to long-term after disasters.

Background: This study aimed to develop models to predict the 5-year incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in a Japanese population and validate them externally in an independent Japanese population.

Methods: Data from 10,986 participants (aged 46-75 years) in the development cohort of the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Diabetes Study and 11,345 participants (aged 46-75 years) in the validation cohort of the Japan Epidemiology Collaboration on Occupational Health Study were used to develop and validate the risk scores in logistic regression models.

Results: We considered non-invasive (sex, body mass index, family history of diabetes mellitus, and diastolic blood pressure) and invasive (glycated hemoglobin [HbA1c] and fasting plasma glucose [FPG]) predictors to predict the 5-year probability of incident diabetes. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.643 for the non-invasive risk model, 0.786 for the invasive risk model with HbA1c but not FPG, and 0.845 for the invasive risk model with HbA1c and FPG. The optimism for the performance of all models was small by internal validation. In the internal-external cross-validation, these models tended to show similar discriminative ability across different areas. The discriminative ability of each model was confirmed using external validation datasets. The invasive risk model with only HbA1c was well-calibrated in the validation cohort.

Conclusion: Our invasive risk models are expected to discriminate between high- and low-risk individuals with T2DM in a Japanese population.

Background: This study aimed to examine the association between risk of brain tumors and radiofrequency (RF) exposure from mobile phones among young people in Korea and Japan.

Methods: This case-control study of brain tumors in young people was conducted in Korea and Japan under the framework of the international MOBI-Kids study. We included 118 patients diagnosed with brain tumors between 2011 and 2015 and 236 matched appendicitis controls aged 10-24 years. Information on mobile phone use was collected through face-to-face interviews. A detailed RF exposure algorithm, based on the MOBI-Kids algorithm and modified to account for the specificities of Japanese and Korean phones and networks, was used to calculate the odds ratios (ORs) for total cumulative specific energy using conditional logistic regression.

Results: The adjusted ORs in the highest tertile of cumulative call time at 1 year before the reference date were 1.61 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.72-3.60) for all brain tumors and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.16-3.03) for gliomas, with no indication of a trend with exposure. The ORs for glioma specifically, were below 1 in the lowest exposure category.

Conclusion: This study provided no evidence of a causal association between mobile phone use and risk of brain tumors as a whole or of glioma specifically. Further research will be required to evaluate the impact of newer technologies of communication in the future.

Background: Acute pulmonary embolism (PE) is a life-threatening in-hospital complication. Recently, several studies have reported the clinical characteristics of PE among Japanese patients using the diagnostic procedure combination (DPC)/per diem payment system database. However, the validity of PE identification algorithms for Japanese administrative data is not yet clear. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the validity of using DPC data to identify acute PE inpatients.

Methods: The reference standard was symptomatic/asymptomatic PE patients included in the COntemporary ManageMent AND outcomes in patients with Venous ThromboEmbolism (COMMAND VTE) registry, which is a cohort study of acute symptomatic venous thromboembolism (VTE) patients in Japan. The validation cohort included all patients discharged from the six hospitals included in both the registry and DPC database. The identification algorithms comprised diagnosis, anticoagulation therapy, thrombolysis therapy, and inferior vena cava filter placement. Each algorithm's sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were estimated.

Results: A total of 43.4% of the validation cohort was female, with a mean age of 67.3 years. The diagnosis-based algorithm showed a sensitivity of 90.2% (222/246; 95% confidence interval [CI], 85.8-93.6%), a specificity of 99.8% (228,485/229,027; 95% CI, 99.7-99.8%), a PPV of 29.1% (222/764; 95% CI, 25.9-32.4%) and an NPV of 99.9% (228,485/229,509; 95% CI, 99.9-99.9%) for identifying symptomatic/asymptomatic PE. Additionally, 94.6% (159/168; 95% CI, 90.1-97.5%) of symptomatic PE patients were identified using the diagnosis-based algorithm.

Conclusion: The diagnosis-based algorithm may be a relatively sensitive method for identifying acute PE inpatients in the Japanese DPC database.

Background: In Japan, sentinel surveillance is used to monitor the trend of infectious gastroenteritis. Another method of pathogen surveillance, wastewater-based epidemiology, has been used recently because it can help to monitor infectious disease without relying on patient data. Here, we aimed to determine the viral trends reflected in the number of reported patients and number of gastroenteritis virus-positive samples. We focused on gastroenteritis viruses present in wastewater and investigated the usefulness of wastewater surveillance for the surveillance of infectious gastroenteritis.

Methods: Real-time polymerase chain reaction was used for viral gene detection in wastewater. The number of reported patients per pediatric sentinel site and number of viral genome copies were compared for correlation potential. The number of gastroenteritis virus-positive samples reported by National Epidemiological Surveillance of Infectious Disease (NESID) and the status of gastroenteritis viruses detected in wastewater were also evaluated.

Results: Genes of norovirus genotype I, norovirus genotype II, sapovirus, astrovirus, rotavirus group A, and rotavirus group C were detected in wastewater samples. Viruses were detected in wastewater during periods when no gastroenteritis virus-positive samples were reported to NESID.

Conclusion: Norovirus genotype II and other gastroenteritis viruses were detected in wastewater even during periods when no gastroenteritis virus-positive samples were found. Therefore, surveillance using wastewater can complement sentinel surveillance and is an effective tool for the surveillance of infectious gastroenteritis.

Background: Little is known about the trends of imported infectious diseases among travelers to non-endemic countries during the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This article aimed to describe those among travelers to Japan.

Methods: This is a descriptive study based on national surveillance data. Imported infectious disease cases were defined as those with a reported overseas source of infection among 15 diseases pre-selected based on the probability and impact of importation. The number of notified cases from April 2016 to March 2021 were described by disease and time of diagnosis. The relative ratio and absolute difference in case counts-both by number and per arrival-were calculated by disease comparing those from the pandemic period (April 2020-March 2021) to the pre-pandemic period (April 2016-March 2020).

Results: A total of 3,524 imported infectious disease cases were diagnosed during the study period, including 3,439 cases before and 85 cases during the pandemic. The proportionate distribution of diseases changed but notification counts of all 15 diseases decreased during the pandemic. Accounting for arrivals, however, seven diseases showed a two-fold or greater increase, with a notable absolute increase per million arrivals for amebiasis (60.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 41.5-78.7), malaria (21.7; 95% CI, 10.5-33.0), and typhoid fever (9.3; 95% CI, 1.9-16.8).

Conclusion: The epidemiology of imported infectious diseases changed during the pandemic. While the number of imported infectious disease cases decreased, the number of cases per arrivals increased considerably both in relative and absolute terms for several diseases of public health and clinical importance.

Background: Behavioral and psychological symptoms of dementia (BPSD) are common among people with dementia from the early stages and can appear even in mild cognitive impairment (MCI). However, the prognostic impact of BPSD is unclear. This study examined the association between BPSD and mortality among people with cognitive impairment.

Methods: This longitudinal study involved 1,065 males and 1,681 females (mean age: males = 77.1 years; females = 78.6 years) with MCI or dementia diagnosis, from the National Center for Geriatrics and Gerontology-Life Stories of People with Dementia (NCGG-STORIES), a single-center memory clinic-based cohort study in Japan that registered first-time outpatients from 2010–2018. Information about death was collected through a mail survey returned by participants or their close relatives, with an up to 8-year follow-up. BPSD was assessed using the Dementia Behavior Disturbance Scale (DBD) at baseline.

Results: During the follow-up period, 229 (28.1%) male and 254 (15.1%) female deaths occurred. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that higher DBD scores were significantly associated with increased mortality risk among males, but not females (compared with the lowest quartile score group, hazard ratios [95% confidence intervals] for the highest quartile score group = 1.59 [1.11–2.29] for males and 1.06 [0.66–1.70] for females). Among the DBD items, lack of interest in daily living, excessive daytime sleep, and refusal to receive care had a higher mortality risk.

Conclusions: The findings suggest a potential association between BPSD and poor prognosis among males with cognitive impairment.

Background: This study aimed to develop and validate claims-based algorithms for identifying hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and the disease severity.

Methods: We used claims data including all patients at the National Center for Global and Medicine Hospital between January 1, 2020, and December 31, 2021. The claims-based algorithms for three statuses with COVID-19 (hospitalizations, moderate or higher status, and severe status) were developed using diagnosis codes (ICD-10 code: U07.1, B34.2) and relevant medical procedure code. True cases were determined using the COVID-19 inpatient registry and electronic health records. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated for each algorithm at 6-month intervals.

Results: Of the 75,711 total patients, number of true cases was 1,192 for hospitalizations, 622 for moderate or higher status, and 55 for severe status. The diagnosis code-only algorithm for hospitalization had sensitivities 90.4% to 94.9% and PPVs 9.3% to 19.4%. Among the algorithms consisting of both diagnosis codes and procedure codes, high sensitivity and PPV were observed during the following periods; 93.9% and 97.1% for hospitalization (January-June 2021), 90.4% and 87.5% for moderate or higher status (July-December 2021), and 92.3% and 85.7% for severe status (July-December 2020), respectively. Almost all algorithms had specificities and NPVs of approximately 99%.

Conclusions: The diagnosis code-only algorithm for COVID-19 hospitalization showed low validity throughout the study period. The algorithms for hospitalizations, moderate or higher status, and severe status with COVID-19, consisting of both diagnosis codes and procedure codes, showed high validity in some periods.