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PICMET '08 - 2008 Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering & Technology最新文献

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From gut feel to educated approximations: Towards an integrated approach for technology valuation 从直觉到有根据的近似:走向技术评估的综合方法
M. Dissel, D. Probert, R. Mitchell
To understand the potential value of a technology a wide range of techniques is available. Examples are quantitative techniques such as discounted cash-flow, real options and decision trees and qualitative techniques such as roadmaps and scoring cards. However, very little has been written about their integrated use and more particularly over the life cycle of a technology. Whereas many companies have their own processes in place often combining qualitative and quantitative techniques, very few empirical studies have been performed to learn from these industry practices and provide an overall view on the process of valuing technologies. In this paper we propose an integrated approach, combining both qualitative and quantitative techniques. Based on ongoing case study research we will elaborate on the use of both qualitative and quantitative methods, and will provide a conceptual basis for integrating these techniques. By seamlessly integrating the qualitative foundations with quantitative projections, judgements can be turned into justification models (using for example decision trees and real options thinking), and scoring mechanisms can turn the collected gut feel into educated approximations for probabilities and financial projections. Although we do not assume a generic decision making process can be defined, the integrated logic provides a more consistent guide for R&D managers and adds to the body of literature, more particularly empirical studies, on the selection and use of a diverse set of valuation tools.
要了解一项技术的潜在价值,可以使用各种各样的技术。例如,贴现现金流、实物期权和决策树等定量技术,以及路线图和计分卡等定性技术。然而,很少有关于它们的综合使用的文章,特别是在技术的生命周期中。尽管许多公司都有自己的流程,通常结合定性和定量技术,但很少有实证研究从这些行业实践中学习,并提供对技术评估过程的总体看法。在本文中,我们提出了一种综合的方法,结合定性和定量技术。基于正在进行的案例研究,我们将详细阐述定性和定量方法的使用,并将提供整合这些技术的概念基础。通过将定性基础与定量预测无缝集成,判断可以转化为论证模型(例如使用决策树和实物期权思维),评分机制可以将收集到的直觉转化为概率和财务预测的有根据的近似。尽管我们不假设可以定义一个通用的决策过程,但集成逻辑为研发经理提供了更一致的指导,并增加了关于选择和使用多种评估工具的文献,特别是实证研究。
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引用次数: 4
Entrepreneurial journey: Emergence from entrepreneurial intent to opportunity realization 创业之旅:从创业意图到机会实现
Min-Seok Cha, Zong-Tae Bae
Entrepreneurial journey of new business creation starts when a business opportunity is discovered by nascent entrepreneurs. There are many obstacles along the journey, and must be an 'internal driving force' to create entrepreneurial actions for problem solving. This paper develops a new concept of 'entrepreneurial intent' as an internal driving force of opportunity realization with 'drive' (sense of crisis) and 'directivity' (sense of opportunity). Furthermore, it presents a theory of the underlying entrepreneurial process with entrepreneurial intent. Case study methods and grounded theory building are utilized. The results based on cases from high-tech venture firms in Korea show that entrepreneurial intent toward a new opportunity is emerged to collective actions for combining new resources to create new values. The entrepreneurial intent is the extreme level of achievement motivation which is comprised of arousal, direction, and duration (reducing the cognition gap), and drives 3C effects such as 'channeling', 'concentrating' and 'continuing' of entrepreneurial actions. The entrepreneurial actions, in turn, make more chances of serendipity in the external process of networking and gaining resources (reducing the resource gap), and the internal process of value creation. Value creation finally converts discovered opportunities into realized opportunities to complete the entrepreneurial journey.
创业之旅从创业初期的创业者发现商机开始。一路上有许多障碍,必须有一种“内在驱动力”来创造解决问题的企业家行动。本文提出了一个新的概念,即“创业意图”是实现机会的内在驱动力,具有“驱动”(危机感)和“方向性”(机会感)。在此基础上,提出了具有创业意图的潜在创业过程理论。案例研究方法和扎根的理论建设。以国内高新技术风险企业为例进行分析的结果表明,企业倾向于寻找新机会,而集体行动则倾向于整合新资源,创造新价值。创业意图是由觉醒、方向和持续时间(减少认知差距)组成的成就动机的极端水平,它驱动着创业行为的“通道”、“集中”和“持续”等3C效应。反过来,创业行为在网络和获取资源的外部过程(缩小资源差距)和价值创造的内部过程中,创造了更多的意外机会。价值创造最终将发现的机会转化为实现的机会,完成创业之旅。
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引用次数: 2
Empirical study of the evolving PC technology system and the measurement of its performance divide 发展中的PC技术体系的实证研究及其绩效鸿沟度量
O. Dedehayir, S. Mäkinen
Maximizing the performance evolution of a technology system relies on optimizing investments in the appropriate sub-systems. This approach subsequently minimizes the impact of a sub-system that trails in technological performance and hinders systemic development, referred to as the reverse salient. In this paper, we developed a performance gap and a time gap measure to analyze reverse salience and applied this measurement technique to an empirical study of the personal computer (PC) technology systempsilas graphics processing unit (GPU) and PC game sub-systems with special focus on the systempsilas overall computational performance in game play. Our measurements of the temporal behavior of reverse salience with the above measures indicate that the PC game sub-system is the reverse salient, continuously trailing behind the technological performance of the GPU sub-system from 1996 through 2006. Additionally, our results highlight the fact that whereas the time gap measure reveals a fairly consistent three-year period of the PC game sub-system closing the performance differential to the GPU sub-system, the performance gap measure shows an increasing disparity between the sub-systems over the same period. We discuss our empirical findings by elaborating on possible underlying causes and by providing managerial implications.
最大化技术系统的性能演化依赖于对适当子系统的优化投资。这种方法随后将技术性能落后和阻碍系统开发的子系统的影响最小化,称为反向突出。在本文中,我们开发了一个性能差距和时间差距测量来分析反向显著性,并将该测量技术应用于个人计算机(PC)技术系统、图形处理单元(GPU)和PC游戏子系统的实证研究,特别关注系统在游戏中的整体计算性能。我们用上述方法对反向显著性的时间行为的测量表明,PC游戏子系统是反向显著的,从1996年到2006年一直落后于GPU子系统的技术性能。此外,我们的结果强调了这样一个事实,即尽管时间差距测量显示PC游戏子系统在相当一致的三年时间内缩小了与GPU子系统的性能差异,但性能差距测量显示在同一时期子系统之间的差距越来越大。我们通过阐述可能的潜在原因和提供管理意义来讨论我们的实证发现。
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引用次数: 0
Implementing a project office and phase model for biotechnology capital projects 实施生物技术资本项目的项目办公室和阶段模型
J. McCreery, L. Bown, S. Eubanks
Bringing biotechnology products to market is a challenging endeavor. Relative to other industries, investment in R&D is quite high in the biotech industry [Technology Review, 2005]. In addition, the biotech industry is critically dependent on manufacturing process innovation [Pisano, 1997; Lim et al., 2006]. The manufacturing processes used to produce these complex medicines must satisfy stringent regulatory and quality requirements. These manufacturing processes are developed through the execution of large capital investment projects. The projects are characterized by long lead times, high levels of complexity and coordination, intensive use of resources, and sizable technical, financial, and regulatory risks. With all these challenges, it is clear that concentrated management attention and excellent project practices are critical to success. This study will describe the efforts of a biotech firm to create a project office center of excellence. We will examine how the project office implemented a comprehensive capital project phase model, as well as providing details on the phase model itself. A range of organizational, technical, and behavioral obstacles will be discussed, along with the approaches used to overcome these obstacles. We will offer lessons learned on how to implement change and improve project performance.
将生物技术产品推向市场是一项具有挑战性的工作。相对于其他行业,生物技术行业的研发投入相当高[技术评论,2005]。此外,生物技术产业严重依赖于制造工艺创新[Pisano, 1997;Lim et al., 2006]。用于生产这些复杂药物的制造工艺必须满足严格的法规和质量要求。这些制造过程是通过大型资本投资项目的执行而发展起来的。这些项目的特点是交付周期长,复杂性和协调性高,资源的密集使用,以及相当大的技术、财务和监管风险。面对所有这些挑战,很明显,集中的管理注意力和优秀的项目实践是成功的关键。本研究将描述一家生物技术公司为建立卓越的项目办公中心所做的努力。我们将研究项目办公室如何实施一个全面的资本项目阶段模型,并提供阶段模型本身的细节。将讨论一系列组织、技术和行为障碍,以及用于克服这些障碍的方法。我们将提供关于如何实施变更和改进项目绩效的经验教训。
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引用次数: 0
Causal relationship analysis based on DEMATEL technique for innovative policies in SMEs 基于DEMATEL技术的中小企业创新政策的因果关系分析
Chia-Han Yang, Jou-Chen Chen, J. Z. Shyu, G. Tzeng
This research aims to offer an overview of policy instruments identified within the small and medium enterprises (SMEs) development. The decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method is also used to draw a directed graph for better capturing the causal relationship visibly between multiple innovative policies. A structural graph will be devise to portray a contextual relationship among twelve policy instruments of policy system including supply, demand, and environmental side, in which the arrow direction of graph represents the influence strength of different policy instrument. The research results reveal that education and public enterprise are both significant factors affecting other instruments and play main roles within policy application for SMEs. In the meanwhile, scientific & technical and information are the factors intensely affected by other policies.
本研究旨在概述中小企业(SMEs)发展中确定的政策工具。采用决策试验与评价实验室(DEMATEL)方法绘制有向图,更好地直观捕捉多个创新政策之间的因果关系。我们将设计一个结构图来描绘包括供给、需求和环境方面在内的政策系统的12个政策工具之间的上下文关系,其中图的箭头方向表示不同政策工具的影响强度。研究结果表明,教育和公共企业都是影响其他工具的重要因素,在中小企业政策适用中发挥着主要作用。同时,科技和信息是受其他政策影响较大的因素。
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引用次数: 3
Analyzing influence factors of technology transfer using fuzzy set theory 运用模糊集理论分析技术转移的影响因素
Wen-Hsiang Lai, Chien-Tzu Tsai
In the face of the era of speedy revolution of high technology, the advanced technology becomes one of the key drivers to enhance productivity in a firm or even in a country. In order to compete in the global environment, the ability and effectiveness of acquiring new technology are essential for firms, especially for the traditional machinery industry. In Taiwan, the societal structure is built on the foundation of small-medium enterprises (SMEs). Thus most new technologies need and depend on the technology transfer (TT) from international firms and research institutes. Due to the complicity of influence factors of TT, such as features of industry, technology, organization, and talent, difficulties are encountered in evaluating the effectiveness of TT. This study develops a rule-based decision support mechanism using fuzzy set theory and the method of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to evaluate the effectiveness of TT. The characteristic of adopting fuzzy set theory is to construct the membership function for those features of influence factors and differentiate the indistinct linguistic terms in order to match true conditions. Finally this study discusses the hierarchical influence factors of TT and provides suggestions for machinery firms with respect to TT effectiveness.
面对日新月异的高科技革命时代,先进技术已成为一个企业乃至一个国家提高生产力的关键驱动力之一。为了在全球环境中竞争,企业获取新技术的能力和有效性是必不可少的,特别是对传统机械工业。台湾的社会结构是建立在中小企业的基础上的。因此,大多数新技术需要并依赖于国际公司和研究机构的技术转让。由于技术创新的行业特征、技术特征、组织特征、人才特征等影响因素的复杂性,使得技术创新的有效性评价遇到困难。本研究运用模糊集合理论和层次分析法(AHP)建立了一种基于规则的决策支持机制,以评价决策支持的有效性。采用模糊集合理论的特点是对影响因素的特征构造隶属函数,对模糊的语言项进行区分,以匹配真实条件。最后,本文探讨了技术创新的层次影响因素,并就技术创新的有效性提出了建议。
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引用次数: 16
The role of information and communication technologies (ICT) in improving microcredit: The case of correspondent banking in Brazil 信息和通信技术在改善小额信贷方面的作用:以巴西代理银行为例
E. Diniz, Marlei Pozzebon, Martin Jayo, Ewandro Araujo
Finding ways to efficiently down scale micro finance services is one of the current challenges of Brazilian commercial banks. As commercial banks do not have strong tradition or know-how in this market, the expansion of such operations still depends on the building of specific capabilities and creation of business and technological architectures. This paper discusses how the use of correspondent banking (CB) arrangements can help Brazilian banks to face this challenge and increase their micro credit operations in an efficient way. The particular model of CB adopted in Brazil since 2000 has created an ICT-based business structure for banks down scale financial services out of traditional branches, typically in retail stores such as supermarkets, drugstores, lottery shops, post offices, and so on. The discussion is on how this ICT-based channel can be adapted to scale micro credit delivery. To address the discussion, we focus on one particular case, involving a CB arrangement between Banco do Brasil, one of the most important Brazilian banking institutions, and Banco Palmas, an accredited micro finance institution. This specific case provides an elucidating example of how the Brazilian ICT-based CB model can be used to help scaling up micro finance services, especially micro credit.
如何有效地缩小小额金融服务的规模是巴西商业银行当前面临的挑战之一。由于商业银行在这一市场上没有强大的传统或专业知识,因此此类业务的扩展仍然依赖于特定能力的建设和业务和技术架构的创建。本文讨论了代理银行(CB)安排如何帮助巴西银行应对这一挑战,并有效地增加其小额信贷业务。自2000年以来,巴西采用的商业银行模式为银行创造了一种基于信息通信技术的业务结构,使传统分支机构(通常是超市、药店、彩票店、邮局等零售商店)的金融服务规模缩小。讨论的重点是如何调整这种基于信息通信技术的渠道,以扩大小额信贷的发放。为了解决这一讨论,我们将重点关注一个特定案例,涉及巴西最重要的银行机构之一巴西银行(Banco do Brasil)与获得认可的小额金融机构帕尔马斯银行(Banco Palmas)之间的转债安排。这一具体案例提供了一个说明性的例子,说明如何利用巴西基于信息通信技术的商业往来模式来帮助扩大小额金融服务,特别是小额信贷。
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引用次数: 14
Engineering management in developing economies: The EMIDE strategies to meet the new challenges 发展中经济体的工程管理:EMIDE应对新挑战的策略
C. Chang
Globalization is here to stay, as United Nations predicts that by 2020 four of the five largest national economies will be located in Asia. Some developing countries in South America and Eastern Europe are also expected to advance their economies rapidly in the near future. It was forecast by Goldman Sachs that the GDP of BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India and China) will surpass that of G6 (United States, Japan, Germany, United Kingdom and Italy) in year 2038. During this rapid advancement period, engineering managers in the West will play different roles than those in the East. Managers in the West will surely try to explore the high growth mid-tier market opportunities offered in the East. This paper offers a comparison between the economies of the West and East, discusses the different business models the West and East apply, and highlights the new challenges ahead. A set of new "EMIDE" strategies are then suggested for engineering managers in developing economies to meet the new challenges ahead. These strategies include: (1) Excel in internalizing conditions and acquiring unique insights related to local culture, custom and business practices (e.g., value of employees, nature of collectivist, power distance, practices of uncertainty avoidance, and femininity styles), (2) Manage local resources (e.g., assemble product with low cost labor, improve products by reverse engineering) and practice engineering management functions effectively, (3) Innovate differentiable capabilities by practicing creative thinking strategies, pursuing open innovation paradigm, assembling new knowledge bases, and applying expertise residing in regional supply chains, (4) Develop marketable product/service offerings well-suited to targeted market segments, considering the needs and affordability of local customers, and (5) Effectuate a fast response to marketplace challenges by taking advantage of acquired global market knowledge (e.g., internal globalization orientation and external globalization drivers) to achieve long- term profitability. Companies in the West will pursue the new growth markets in the East. The suggested EMIDE strategic model of "acting locally and thinking globally" assists engineering managers in the developing economies to successfully capture these new growth opportunities and expand beyond.
全球化将持续下去,联合国预测,到2020年,全球五大经济体中将有四个位于亚洲。南美洲和东欧的一些发展中国家也有望在不久的将来迅速发展其经济。高盛预测,到2038年,金砖四国(巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国)的GDP将超过G6(美国、日本、德国、英国、意大利)。在这个快速发展的时期,西方的工程管理人员将扮演与东方不同的角色。西方的基金经理肯定会尝试探索东方提供的高增长的中端市场机会。本文对东西方经济进行了比较,讨论了东西方不同的商业模式,并强调了未来的新挑战。然后,为发展中经济体的工程管理人员提出了一套新的“EMIDE”战略,以应对未来的新挑战。这些策略包括:(1)善于内化与当地文化、习俗、商业实践相关的条件并获得独特见解(如员工价值观、集体主义性质、权力距离、不确定性规避实践、女性化风格);(2)管理当地资源(如低成本劳动力组装产品、逆向工程改进产品),有效实践工程管理职能;(3)通过实践创造性思维策略、追求开放式创新范式、整合新知识基础和应用区域供应链中的专业知识来创新差异化能力;(4)考虑当地客户的需求和负担能力,开发适合目标细分市场的适销对路的产品/服务;(5)利用获得的全球市场知识(例如:内部全球化导向和外部全球化驱动)实现长期盈利。西方的公司将追求东方新的增长市场。EMIDE提出的“本地行动,全球思考”的战略模式有助于发展中经济体的工程经理成功抓住这些新的增长机会并向外扩张。
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引用次数: 1
A decision framework for the evaluation of the knowledge management tools 一个评估知识管理工具的决策框架
G. Büyüközkan, O. Feyzioğlu
The increase in the number of companies seeking knowledge management (KM) solutions, in order to gain significant business advantages, has created the need for a decision-aid approach in choosing appropriate KM tools. The objective of this paper is then to aid decision makers to identify the most appropriate KM tool to improve the effectiveness of their organization. To achieve this, several evaluation criteria have been identified and existing leading KM tools have been investigated. In order to rate competing systems of different vendors, we use a decision framework based on the Choquet integral aggregation, that takes into account interaction among evaluation criteria, which is generally less involved issue in other multicriteria decision making methods. Finally, a case study is given to demonstrate the potential of the methodology.
为了获得显著的商业优势,越来越多的公司寻求知识管理(KM)解决方案,这就需要一种决策辅助方法来选择合适的知识管理工具。本文的目的是帮助决策者确定最合适的知识管理工具,以提高其组织的有效性。为了实现这一目标,已经确定了几个评估标准,并研究了现有的领先知识管理工具。为了对不同厂商的竞争系统进行评级,我们使用了基于Choquet积分聚合的决策框架,该框架考虑了评价标准之间的相互作用,这是其他多标准决策方法通常较少涉及的问题。最后,给出了一个案例研究来证明该方法的潜力。
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引用次数: 3
Enhancing military rapid product delivery capabilities 提高军事产品快速交付能力
C. D. Solomon, A. Thal
The rapidly changing global security environment that todaypsilas military operates within requires an ever increasing ability to quickly adapt to non-traditional threats. This has forced the U.S. to re-examine the traditional means of equipping its forces to ensure more agile acquisition practices are available to the science and technology (S&T) and acquisition communities. While there have been significant efforts to look towards industry for potential solutions, the heavily bureaucratic and restrictive government environment has made this difficult. To effectively implement rapid reaction approaches within the government context, research into organizations facing similar constraints must be conducted. This research focused on interviewing innovative pockets across the government with proven track records for rapidly acquiring new technologies to cross-pollinate measures for success. Through the use of various qualitative measures, innovative practices and methodologies were identified that keep these organizations on the cutting edge of rapid product delivery. The recommendations of this research can be broadly applied to organizations chartered with rapidly responding to customer needs.
当今军事行动所处的快速变化的全球安全环境要求快速适应非传统威胁的能力不断增强。这迫使美国重新审视装备其部队的传统方式,以确保科学技术和采办界能够获得更灵活的采办实践。虽然已经做出了巨大的努力,向行业寻求潜在的解决方案,但严重的官僚主义和限制性的政府环境使这变得困难。为了在政府环境中有效地实施快速反应方法,必须对面临类似约束的组织进行研究。这项研究的重点是采访政府中具有创新能力的部门,这些部门在迅速获得新技术方面有良好的记录,可以促进成功措施的交叉推广。通过使用各种定性措施,确定了创新的实践和方法,使这些组织处于快速产品交付的前沿。本研究的建议可以广泛应用于对客户需求作出快速反应的组织。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
PICMET '08 - 2008 Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering & Technology
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