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Misinformation and the Paradox of Trust during the covid-19 pandemic in the U.S.: pathways to Risk perception and compliance behaviors 美国新冠肺炎大流行期间的错误信息和信任悖论:风险认知和合规行为的途径
IF 5.1 4区 管理学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-04-06 DOI: 10.1080/13669877.2023.2176910
Ji won Kim, Jiyoung Lee, Y. Dai
Abstract As declared “infodemic” by the World Health Organization, the proliferation of Covid-19 misinformation has posed a significant challenge to public health efforts to tackle the pandemic. Despite initial evidence on the association between misinformation and behavior, researchers have yet to fully identify intervening variables to account for the behavioral effects of Covid-19 misinformation. To address this question, this study aims to examine whether and how consuming misinformation would predict public trust in health and political institutions, and in turn, shape risk perception and adherence to preventive behaviors. We conducted a web-based survey using a nationally representative sample of 1,400 U.S. adults in October 2020. We found that Covid-19 misinformation exposure was linked to lower trust in public health experts but higher trust in government, which led to a decrease in the perceived severity of Covid-19 and less compliance with public health guidance. Our findings uncover the complex social and psychological processes by which misinformation consumption undermines public health efforts during the pandemic crisis.
摘要正如世界卫生组织宣布的“信息传播”,新冠肺炎错误信息的扩散对应对疫情的公共卫生努力构成了重大挑战。尽管有初步证据表明错误信息与行为之间存在关联,但研究人员尚未完全确定干预变量,以解释新冠肺炎错误信息的行为影响。为了解决这个问题,本研究旨在检验消费性错误信息是否以及如何预测公众对卫生和政治机构的信任,进而影响风险感知和对预防行为的遵守。2020年10月,我们对1400名美国成年人进行了一项具有全国代表性的网络调查。我们发现,新冠肺炎错误信息暴露与对公共卫生专家的信任度较低,但对政府的信任度较高有关,这导致新冠肺炎的严重程度降低,对公共卫生指导的遵守程度降低。我们的研究结果揭示了在疫情危机期间,错误信息消费破坏公共卫生努力的复杂社会和心理过程。
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引用次数: 0
A framework for understanding risk based on the concepts of ontology and epistemology 基于本体论和认识论概念的风险理解框架
IF 5.1 4区 管理学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-03-29 DOI: 10.1080/13669877.2023.2194892
M. Ylönen, T. Aven
Abstract Two fundamental philosophical concepts of social science are ontology (idealism and realism), relating to what reality is, and epistemology (epistemological realism, epistemological idealism), relating to how one can obtain knowledge about that reality. These concepts are cornerstones in identifying, understanding, and describing core strategies in sociological theorizing (empiricism, substantialism, rationalism, and subjectivism). Similar philosophical concepts have been introduced and defined in risk science, to explain, assess and understand the risk concept. This paper studies and reconciles these two perspectives with the aim of obtaining new insights on how risks can be better understood, described, and communicated. Earlier work on this topic is extended by using contemporary risk science knowledge, as recently presented by the Society for Risk Analysis. The paper presents a framework for depicting the different ontological and epistemological stands in the risk domain. This framework can be useful for both theoretical and applied researchers studying risk.
摘要社会科学的两个基本哲学概念是本体论(唯心主义和实在论)和认识论(认识论实在论、认识论唯心主义),前者与现实是什么有关,后者与如何获得关于现实的知识有关。这些概念是识别、理解和描述社会学理论(经验主义、实体主义、理性主义和主观主义)核心策略的基石。在风险科学中引入并定义了类似的哲学概念,以解释、评估和理解风险概念。本文研究并调和了这两种观点,目的是获得关于如何更好地理解、描述和沟通风险的新见解。正如风险分析学会最近提出的那样,利用当代风险科学知识扩展了关于这一主题的早期工作。本文提出了一个框架来描述风险领域中不同的本体论和认识论立场。该框架对研究风险的理论和应用研究人员都很有用。
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引用次数: 1
Defensive pessimism-like thinking in practice: the (dys)functional strategy for coping with risk uncertainty in the offshore oilfield? 防御性悲观主义思维在实践中的应用:海上油田应对风险不确定性的(dys)功能策略?
IF 5.1 4区 管理学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-03-20 DOI: 10.1080/13669877.2023.2187433
Nicholas Norman Adams
Abstract UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) offshore oilfield drilling is recognised as a high-hazard occupation that occurs in one of the riskiest locations in the world. Dangerous machinery, combustible hydrocarbons, unpredictable weather conditions, rapidly shifting situational factors, rotating crews, and lengthy travel over rough seas by helicopter are just some salient risk-factors. At present, little scholarly research explores how regular offshore workers develop cognitive strategies to attempt to cope with ever-present risks. This research draws on an embedded ethnography of a remote offshore oilfield drilling platform in the UK North Sea. The risks of working offshore and the strategies workers developed and employed to deal with continual risk uncertainties were discussed in face-to-face interviews with thirty-five active drilling crew as they laboured on complex well-drilling operations. Notably, defensive pessimism (DP) like thinking was recurrently exhibited, with many workers recounting detailed narratives of mental role-play for ‘worst case’ offshore and helicopter travel scenarios. Often, thinking appeared interlinked with strengthening motifs for workers’ preparation and planning skills regarding occupational risk possibilities. These strategies are presented, as is a discussion of the effects such strategies had upon oilmen. The benefits of growing scholarly conversation surrounding DP-like thinking in practice are highlighted. alongside the methodological application of DP theory for further study surrounding practical development of coping strategies in similar high-risk workspaces.
摘要英国大陆架(UKCS)海上油田钻井被认为是一种高风险职业,发生在世界上风险最高的地区之一。危险的机械、可燃碳氢化合物、不可预测的天气条件、快速变化的形势因素、轮换机组人员以及乘坐直升机在波涛汹涌的海面上长途旅行都是一些突出的风险因素。目前,很少有学术研究探讨正规海外员工如何制定认知策略来应对不断存在的风险。这项研究借鉴了英国北海一个偏远海上油田钻井平台的嵌入式民族志。在35名从事复杂钻井作业的现役钻井人员的面对面采访中,讨论了海上作业的风险以及工人为应对持续的风险不确定性而制定和采用的策略。值得注意的是,类似防御性悲观主义(DP)的思维反复出现,许多工人详细讲述了“最坏情况”的海上和直升机旅行场景中的心理角色扮演。通常,思维似乎与加强工人关于职业风险可能性的准备和规划技能的主题相互关联。介绍了这些策略,并讨论了这些策略对石油工人的影响。强调了围绕DP式思维在实践中不断增长的学术对话的好处。以及DP理论的方法论应用,以围绕类似高风险工作场所应对策略的实际发展进行进一步研究。
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引用次数: 0
Risk guidance and anti-corruption language: evidence from corporate codes of conduct 风险指导和反腐败语言:来自公司行为准则的证据
IF 5.1 4区 管理学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-03-17 DOI: 10.1080/13669877.2023.2181857
Olga Bogachek, M. Gietzmann, F. Grossetti
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引用次数: 0
Risk, religion, and reified camels: the past and the future of insurance in Iran 风险、宗教和骆驼:伊朗保险的过去和未来
IF 5.1 4区 管理学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-03-16 DOI: 10.1080/13669877.2023.2187434
Zohreh Bayatrizi
Abstract This paper is a contribution to the understanding of insurance and risk management as a culturally mediated form of social action. It examines how commercial insurance functions in the Iranian marketplace, focusing on insurance against liability in bodily harm. The quantum of damages (diya) currently used in Iran’s ‘Islamicized’ laws, including in insurance law, is rooted in the historical conventions of Bedouin Arabs, chief among which was the cultural use of camels as a benchmark for the valuation of human life. The imposition of this cultural rule on contemporary insurance contracts complicates risk management via probabilistic logic, because there are major fluctuations in camel valuations in the Iranian market today. The use of this benchmark also has significant socio-economic implications for the insured. But, at the same time, there is surprising synergy between ancient culture and modern business because the same traditions that established camels as the benchmark for diya also gave birth to one of the earliest forms of proto-insurance against liability and continue to give religious legitimacy to the insurance business. By examining the incorporation of the Islamic quantum of damages in insurance calculations, this paper contributes to the broader understanding of the cultural and moral underpinnings of insurance, and sheds light on how the tensions between the cultural and economic elements of risk management are managed.
摘要本文有助于理解保险和风险管理作为一种文化介导的社会行动形式。它考察了商业保险在伊朗市场的运作方式,重点是针对身体伤害责任的保险。目前在伊朗“伊斯兰化”的法律(包括保险法)中使用的损害赔偿量值(diya)根植于贝都因阿拉伯人的历史习俗,其中最主要的是文化上使用骆驼作为衡量人类生命价值的基准。将这一文化规则强加于当代保险合同,通过概率逻辑使风险管理复杂化,因为今天伊朗市场上骆驼的估值存在重大波动。这一基准的使用对被保险人也有重大的社会经济影响。但与此同时,古代文化与现代商业之间存在着令人惊讶的协同作用,因为将骆驼作为diya基准的传统也催生了一种最早的原始责任保险形式,并继续赋予保险业务以宗教合法性。通过研究将伊斯兰的损害赔偿量子纳入保险计算,本文有助于更广泛地理解保险的文化和道德基础,并阐明如何管理风险管理的文化和经济因素之间的紧张关系。
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引用次数: 0
Attitudes toward possible food radiation contamination following the Fukushima nuclear accident: a nine-year, ten-wave panel survey 福岛核事故后对可能的食品辐射污染的态度:一项为期九年的十波小组调查
IF 5.1 4区 管理学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-03-10 DOI: 10.1080/13669877.2023.2181856
T. Kusumi, Asako Miura, Kanayo Ogura, Kazuji Nishikawa
Abstract After the Fukushima nuclear accident, we examined changes in risk perception regarding the radiation contamination of food and information-seeking behavior among residents of three regions progressively more distant from the disaster area, the Tokyo Metropolitan area to the Kansai area. We conducted a ten-wave panel survey and obtained data from 1,752 citizens six months to nine years after the accident. The results indicate that anxiety related to radioactive contamination, active information-seeking behavior, and avoidance of foods from affected areas decreased with time. Active information-seeking behavior and radiation-related knowledge were higher in the disaster-affected prefectures than in other areas. Conversely, avoidance of foods from affected areas was lower in affected prefectures than in the Kansai area. The credibility of government information increased from a considerably low level but did not reach the midpoint level. Multiple regression analysis, cross-lagged analysis, and structural equation modeling indicated that avoidance of foods from affected areas was promoted by anxiety related to radioactive contamination (experiential thinking/System 1) and inhibited by critical thinking attitudes (analytical thinking/System 2). Finally, we discussed the significance of risk literacy, which integrates risk-related knowledge, scientific literacy, media literacy, and critical thinking.
摘要福岛核事故发生后,我们调查了从灾区、东京都到关西地区三个地区的居民对食品辐射污染的风险认知和信息寻求行为的变化。我们进行了一项十波面板调查,并在事故发生六个月至九年后从1752名公民那里获得了数据。结果表明,与放射性污染相关的焦虑、积极的信息寻求行为以及对受影响地区食物的回避随着时间的推移而减少。受灾县的主动信息寻求行为和辐射相关知识高于其他地区。相反,与关西地区相比,受影响县对受影响地区食物的回避程度较低。政府信息的可信度从相当低的水平提高,但没有达到中点水平。多元回归分析、交叉滞后分析和结构方程模型表明,与放射性污染相关的焦虑(体验思维/系统1)促进了对受影响地区食物的回避,而批判性思维态度(分析思维/系统2)则抑制了对食物的避避。最后,我们讨论了风险素养的意义,它融合了风险相关知识、科学素养、媒体素养和批判性思维。
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引用次数: 0
What entails risk management maturity in public organisations? 公共机构的风险管理成熟度是什么?
IF 5.1 4区 管理学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-03-10 DOI: 10.1080/13669877.2023.2187435
A. L. F. De Lorena, A. Costa
Abstract This article investigates which attributes and contingent factors are crucial to develop a public sector risk management maturity model (PSRMMM). The purpose of this study is not to provide a PSRMMM per se, but to be a scientific reference in the creation of future models to better guide public organisations. Accordingly, enterprise risk management literature and specific public sector factors were analysed to build a questionnaire that was carried out in Brazilian federal and state public organisations. Next, a path of multivariate statistical techniques (CATPCA, K-modes, and multinomial logistic regression analysis) was used to analyse the data collected from 330 survey responses. Results reveal that 12 statistically significant variables explain 5 different levels of public sector risk management maturity. This study stands out for its originality in indicating the main contingent factors and attributes a PSRMMM must have per level of maturity, facilitating the development of prescriptions to guide implementation improvements. Moreover, this study has practical implications to government policymakers who use PSRMMM to assess the performance of public organizations in implementing risk management frameworks.
摘要本文探讨了公共部门风险管理成熟度模型(PSRMMM)的关键属性和偶然性因素。本研究的目的不是提供一个PSRMMM本身,而是为创建未来的模型提供科学参考,以更好地指导公共组织。因此,企业风险管理文献和具体的公共部门因素进行了分析,以建立在巴西联邦和州公共组织进行了问卷调查。接下来,采用多元统计技术(CATPCA、k模式和多项逻辑回归分析)对330份调查问卷收集的数据进行分析。结果显示,12个统计显著变量解释了5个不同级别的公共部门风险管理成熟度。这项研究的突出之处在于它的独创性,它指出了每个成熟度级别的PSRMMM必须具有的主要偶然因素和属性,促进了处方的制定,以指导实施改进。此外,本研究对政府决策者使用PSRMMM评估公共组织实施风险管理框架的绩效具有实际意义。
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引用次数: 0
Data use and data needs in critical infrastructure risk analysis 关键基础设施风险分析中的数据使用和数据需求
IF 5.1 4区 管理学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-03-02 DOI: 10.1080/13669877.2023.2181858
Aron Larsson, C. Große
Abstract This paper provides an overview and mapping of needs and use of data related to formal risk analysis within the context of critical infrastructures, including activities of risk assessments and risk modelling as a part of preventive work against major accidents and crises. The aim is to contribute to a greater understanding of the type of data that is actually used in published sources where different risk assessment or risk analysis methods are applied for critical infrastructure protection. The study focuses specifically on the presentation of applications of quantitative or semi-quantitative risk analysis in the scientific literature within the domain of societally important services and critical infrastructures. The survey was delimited to peer reviewed research papers between the years 2010 and 2020 and resulted in a total number of 183 papers subject for evaluation. The results provide insights into the type of data that is used, missing or difficult to obtain for an application of the identified methods. To obtain a comprehensive critical infrastructure risk analysis data needs are related to three different data dimensions; geospatial topology data, socio-economic data, and infrastructure data. However, no databases are currently available with the explicit purpose to support critical infrastructure risk analysis. Even though this is not viewed as a problem in the examined papers, collecting that data is resource intensive which is a barrier for a more systematic use of formal risk analysis methods.
摘要本文概述了在关键基础设施的背景下,与正式风险分析相关的数据的需求和使用情况,包括风险评估和风险建模活动,作为预防重大事故和危机的一部分。其目的是有助于更好地理解在公开来源中实际使用的数据类型,其中应用不同的风险评估或风险分析方法来保护关键基础设施。该研究特别侧重于在具有社会重要性的服务和关键基础设施领域的科学文献中介绍定量或半定量风险分析的应用。调查对象为2010年至2020年同行评议的研究论文,共183篇论文。结果提供了对已确定方法的应用中使用的、缺失的或难以获得的数据类型的见解。为了获得全面的关键基础设施风险分析,数据需求涉及三个不同的数据维度;地理空间拓扑数据、社会经济数据和基础设施数据。然而,目前还没有明确用于支持关键基础设施风险分析的数据库。尽管这在被审查的论文中不被视为一个问题,但收集这些数据是资源密集型的,这是更系统地使用正式风险分析方法的障碍。
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引用次数: 1
The risk-related tone from the top: evidence from German regional banks 来自高层的风险相关基调:来自德国地区银行的证据
IF 5.1 4区 管理学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-02-26 DOI: 10.1080/13669877.2023.2176911
Arnd Wiedemann, Christiane Bouten, Patrick Hertrampf, Volker Stein, Nicolas Mues
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引用次数: 0
Bibliometric analysis of risk science from 1996 to 2021: insights and implications 1996-2021年风险科学文献计量分析:见解和启示
IF 5.1 4区 管理学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-02-15 DOI: 10.1080/13669877.2023.2176914
Jun Hao, Jianping Li, Dengsheng Wu
Abstract Risk science is a disciplinary system for accurately predicting, assessing, and managing risks. It includes concepts, theories, frameworks, methods, principles, and models related to knowledge generation, to better understand, evaluate, characterize, and manage risk. To better describe the development of risk science, this study selects 10,950 papers from 1996 to 2021 and performs a scientometric analysis of risk science. This study provides high-level insights into journal publishing trends, structures, and trends by leading countries, institutes, authors, and their respective collaboration networks. In addition, we analyze the structure and evolution of the research focus questions. The findings aim to help scholars and risk practitioners understand the structure and development of the field, and identify critical contributors and hot topics to improve the risk science field.
摘要风险科学是一个准确预测、评估和管理风险的学科体系。它包括与知识生成相关的概念、理论、框架、方法、原则和模型,以更好地理解、评估、表征和管理风险。为了更好地描述风险科学的发展,本研究选取了1996年至2021年的10950篇论文,对风险科学进行了科学计量分析。这项研究提供了领先国家、研究所、作者及其各自合作网络对期刊出版趋势、结构和趋势的高层次见解。此外,我们还分析了研究重点问题的结构和演变。这些发现旨在帮助学者和风险从业者了解该领域的结构和发展,并确定关键贡献者和热点话题,以改进风险科学领域。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
Journal of Risk Research
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