Journal of Risk Research最新文献_第7页

A new perspective for the integration of intelligence and risk management in a customs and border control context 海关和边境管制背景下情报和风险管理一体化的新视角

IF 5.1 4区管理学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY

Journal of Risk Research

Pub Date : 2023-02-13 DOI: 10.1080/13669877.2023.2176912

M. Ylönen, T. Aven

Abstract This paper concerns intelligence and risk management in a customs and border control context. Intelligence here refers to the collection, sharing, processing, analysis and dissemination of information on threats, related to cross-border movements of goods, travellers, illegal activities, and serious organized crime. The main aim of the paper is to present a new perspective for the integration of intelligence and risk management for this context. The perspective, which builds on contemporary risk and safety science knowledge, as well as studies on intelligence, organizations, management, and social mechanisms, provides concepts, principles, and a unified framework for this integration. The paper gives customs and border control management new insights and instruments on how to organize and handle risk and intelligence issues and studies.

摘要本文涉及海关和边境管制背景下的情报和风险管理。这里的情报是指收集、共享、处理、分析和传播与货物跨境流动、旅行者、非法活动和严重有组织犯罪有关的威胁信息。本文的主要目的是为这一背景下的情报与风险管理的整合提供一个新的视角。该视角建立在当代风险和安全科学知识以及对情报、组织、管理和社会机制的研究的基础上，为这种整合提供了概念、原则和统一框架。该文件为海关和边境管制管理部门提供了关于如何组织和处理风险和情报问题和研究的新见解和工具。

引用次数: 2

Is targeting the solution? Evidence from an experiment on radon risk communication 目标是解决方案吗?氡风险通报实验的证据

IF 5.1 4区管理学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY

Journal of Risk Research

Pub Date : 2023-02-10 DOI: 10.1080/13669877.2023.2176913

Diego Dametto, Britta Oertel, C. Pölzl-Viol, C. Böhmert

Abstract While prolonged exposure to radon is one of the most significant risk factors for lung cancer, public awareness and willingness to mitigate the risk are typically low, even in regions with high radon concentrations. Given this, it has been voiced that health protection agencies should follow a more targeted risk communication approach (Perko & Turcanu, 2020). While targeted and tailored risk communication approaches have been shown to be successful, especially regarding so-called lifestyle risks (smoking, unhealthy diet, etc.), the effects of targeted radon risk communication from a health protection agency perspective have not been analyzed thus far. To this end, we conducted an online experiment. Four web pages were created targeting four stakeholder groups: (1) tenants and (2) house owners in municipalities with high radon concentrations, (3) tenants and (4) house owners in areas adjacent to municipalities with high radon concentrations. The content of the web pages was designed based on the German Federal Office for Radiation Protection’s (BfS) materials. Participants (n = 293 valid cases) were randomly assigned either to the experimental or control group. We assessed differences between the stakeholder groups regarding information comprehension, risk perception, behavioral intention, perceived efficacy of measures against radon, and (personal) uncertainty regarding radon. In a MANOVA including all five dependent variables, the null hypothesis that there are no differences regarding these variables between the stakeholder groups could not be rejected (Wilk’s Λ = 0.9980, p = .99). Given an achieved statistical power of 1-β = .93 for effects of medium size according to Cohen, it is quite unlikely that medium or large effects can be achieved by targeting risk communication to the stakeholder groups described above, given our data. As the statistical power to detect small effects was low (1-β = .21), these cannot be precluded. Potential reasons for this finding and implications for risk communication practice are discussed.

虽然长期暴露于氡是肺癌最重要的危险因素之一，但即使在氡浓度高的地区，公众对减轻风险的认识和意愿通常也很低。鉴于此，有人表示，健康保护机构应采取更有针对性的风险沟通方法(Perko & Turcanu, 2020)。虽然有针对性和量身定制的风险通报方法已被证明是成功的，特别是在所谓的生活方式风险(吸烟、不健康饮食等)方面，但迄今尚未从健康保护机构的角度分析有针对性的氡风险通报的影响。为此，我们进行了一次在线实验。针对四个利益相关者群体创建了四个网页:(1)氡浓度高的城市的租户和(2)房主，(3)氡浓度高的城市附近地区的租户和(4)房主。网页的内容是根据德国联邦辐射防护办公室(BfS)的资料设计的。参与者(n = 293例有效病例)随机分为实验组和对照组。我们评估了利益相关者群体之间在信息理解、风险感知、行为意图、抗氡措施的感知效果以及(个人)对氡的不确定性方面的差异。在包含所有五个因变量的方差分析中，不能拒绝利益相关者群体之间关于这些变量没有差异的原假设(Wilk的Λ = 0.9980, p = 0.99)。根据Cohen的说法，中等规模效应的统计能力为1-β = 0.93，根据我们的数据，通过针对上述利益相关者群体的风险沟通来实现中等或较大的效果是不太可能的。由于检测小效应的统计能力较低(1-β = .21)，因此不能排除这些影响。讨论了这一发现的潜在原因和风险沟通实践的含义。

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引用次数: 1

Introducing forecast-based public health warnings to promote engagement with air quality risk: a survey of citizens’ attitudes in Cork, Ireland 引入基于预报的公共卫生警告，以促进对空气质量风险的参与:爱尔兰科克市公民态度的调查

IF 5.1 4区管理学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY

Journal of Risk Research

Pub Date : 2023-01-31 DOI: 10.1080/13669877.2023.2170453

Gregory Gorman, S. Hellebust, D. Venables, Kevin Ryan, M. Cassarino

Abstract Policies aimed at raising the public’s awareness on the causes and consequences of air pollution are crucial to incentivise behavioural change that can benefit the health of people and the environment. Air quality forecasting (AQF) can inform early public health warnings aimed at mitigating exposure to air pollution and promoting behaviours that may be less impactful on air quality (e.g. transport, home heating). Although research in this area is limited, evidence suggests that it is important to understand the factors influencing people’s attitudes towards air quality and the perceived benefits of AQF-based warnings to inform policy on the most optimal ways to engage the public on this matter. As part of the implementation of a local clean air strategy embedding AQF, and guided by information processing theories, this study investigated perceptions of the potential introduction of AQF-based warnings among 509 adults in Cork City (Ireland) via an online survey including quantitative and qualitative questions. Content analysis identified overall positive views, with perceived benefits including education, exposure management, and, to a lesser extent, behavioural change. Quantitative analysis showed moderate levels of concern, low awareness of air quality monitoring and low sense of personal control, thus supporting the need for accessible and actionable messaging. We observed variations in attitudes and engagement preferences based on both socio-demographic and psychological factors. Policy implications are discussed with regards to the importance of positive messaging and diversified communication channels to optimise AQF-based public warnings

旨在提高公众对空气污染的原因和后果的认识的政策，对于激励有益于人类健康和环境的行为改变至关重要。空气质量预报可以为早期公共卫生预警提供信息，旨在减少空气污染暴露和促进可能对空气质量影响较小的行为(例如交通、家庭供暖)。尽管这一领域的研究有限，但有证据表明，了解影响人们对空气质量态度的因素以及基于空气质量指数的警告所带来的好处，对政策制定提供有关让公众参与这一问题的最佳途径非常重要。作为嵌入AQF的地方清洁空气战略实施的一部分，在信息处理理论的指导下，本研究通过一项包括定量和定性问题的在线调查，调查了科克市(爱尔兰)509名成年人对潜在引入AQF警告的看法。内容分析确定了总体上的积极观点，包括教育，暴露管理，以及较小程度上的行为改变。定量分析显示，关注程度中等，对空气质量监测的认识较低，个人控制意识较低，因此支持需要提供可获取和可操作的信息。我们观察到基于社会人口和心理因素的态度和参与偏好的变化。本文讨论了积极的信息传递和多样化的沟通渠道对优化aqf公共警告的重要性的政策影响

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引用次数: 0

Regulating through disclosure: the case of food hygiene barometer ratings in China 通过披露进行监管：以中国食品卫生晴雨表评级为例

IF 5.1 4区管理学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY

Journal of Risk Research

Pub Date : 2023-01-30 DOI: 10.1080/13669877.2023.2170451

Li Wang, D. Demeritt, H. Rothstein

Abstract This paper provides the first assessment of China’s twenty-year experiment with food hygiene barometer rating systems, originally developed in the West for publicly communicating the grades awarded by food safety inspectors to individual businesses. This approach to regulating through disclosure is often celebrated for efficiently ‘nudging’ improved business compliance by empowering consumers to make ‘better’ decisions, but little is known about disclosure-based regulation in China or other low- and middle-income countries. Combining policy document and quantitative social media analysis with key informant interviews (n = 35), we show that barometers have failed to improve hygiene in China’s rapidly expanding private food sector: more than 75% of restaurants in four diverse case-study localities remain merely ‘Adequate’ with many of those unable in practice to meet basic safety standards. This is because regulatory implementation has been hesitant and unreliable; consumers ignore or distrust barometers; and food businesses lack the capacity and competitive incentive to improve. That failure to empower consumer sovereignty and leverage business behaviour change, however, also reflects how barometers – despite their liberal individualist conceit - were adapted to China’s revolutionary ‘mass line’ traditions of societal supervision of government regulators as much as food businesses. We conclude that barometers – far from being a ‘light-touch’ alternative to command-and-control regulation- require significant governance capacity, which may be lacking in low- and middle-income countries that struggle to conduct even basic regulatory oversight. Disclosure-based regulation also requires high levels of economic development, formalisation and trust to inculcate consumer and business responsiveness to information disclosures. Finally, our paper contributes to debates about risk communication and regulation by drawing the novel conclusion that the conceits underpinning seemingly universal tools of regulating through disclosure, get adapted to national state traditions and norms in ways that are far removed from their origins.

摘要:本文首次对中国食品卫生晴雨表评级系统进行了20年的试验，该系统最初是在西方开发的，用于向个体企业公开传达食品安全检查员授予的等级。这种通过信息披露进行监管的方法常常被称赞为通过赋予消费者做出“更好”决策的权力，有效地“推动”改善了企业的合规性，但人们对中国或其他中低收入国家基于信息披露的监管知之甚少。结合政策文件、定量社交媒体分析和关键信息者访谈(n = 35)，我们发现，在中国迅速扩张的私营食品行业，“晴雨表”未能改善卫生状况:在四个不同的案例研究地区，超过75%的餐馆仅处于“合格”状态，其中许多餐馆在实践中无法达到基本的安全标准。这是因为监管执行一直犹豫不决且不可靠;消费者忽视或不信任晴雨表;食品企业缺乏能力和竞争激励来改进。然而，未能赋予消费者主权和推动企业行为改变，也反映出，尽管这些指标具有自由个人主义的自负，但它们是如何适应中国革命的“群众路线”传统的，即社会对政府监管机构和食品企业进行监督。我们得出的结论是，“晴雨表”远非命令和控制监管的“轻触式”替代方案，它需要强大的治理能力，而低收入和中等收入国家可能缺乏这种能力，它们甚至难以进行基本的监管监督。基于信息披露的监管还需要高水平的经济发展、规范化和信任，以灌输消费者和企业对信息披露的反应。最后，我们的论文通过得出一个新颖的结论，即支持通过披露进行监管的看似普遍的工具的自负，以与其起源相去甚远的方式适应了民族国家的传统和规范，从而促进了关于风险沟通和监管的辩论。

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引用次数: 0

Crises social sensing: longitudinal monitoring of social perceptions of systemic risk during public health crisis 危机社会感知:公共卫生危机期间对系统性风险的社会感知的纵向监测

IF 5.1 4区管理学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY

Journal of Risk Research

Pub Date : 2023-01-30 DOI: 10.1080/13669877.2023.2170450

Rui Gaspar, S. Domingos, Hugo Toscano, Jessica Filipe, G. Leiras, B. Raposo, Cícero Pereira, Cristina Godinho, Rita Francisco, Claudia Silva, M. Arriaga

Abstract Monitoring how different people – as ‘social sensors’ – evaluate and respond to crisis such as pandemics, allows tailoring crisis communication to the social perceptions of the situation, at different moments. To gather such evidence, we proposed a index of social perceptions of systemic risk (SPSR), as an indicator of a situational threat compromising risks to physical health, psychological health, the economy, social relations, health system, and others. This indicator was the core of a social sensing approach applied to crisis situations, implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic through a content analysis of more than 130.000 public comments from Facebook™ users, in COVID-19 related publications. This content coding allowed creating a SPSR index monitored during a one-year descriptive longitudinal analysis. This index correlated with co-occurring events within the social system, namely epidemiological indicators across measurement cycles (e.g. new deaths; cumulative number of infection cases; Intensive Care Unit hospitalizations) and tended to reflect the epidemiological situation severity (e.g. with the highest level registered during the worst pandemic wave). However, discrepancies also occurred, with high SPSR registered in a low severity situation, i.e. low number of hospitalizations and deaths (e.g. school year beginning), or low SPSR in a high severity situation (e.g. 2nd pandemic wave during Christmas), showing other factors beyond the epidemiological situation contributing to the social perceptions. After each ‘crisis period’ with SPSR peaking, there was a ‘restoration period’, consistently decreasing towards average levels of the previous measurement cycle. This can either indicate social resilience (recovery and resources potentiation) or risk attenuation after a high-severity period. This study serves as preliminary proof of concept of a crises social sensing approach, enabling monitoring of social system dynamics for various crisis types, such as health crisis or the climate crisis.

监测不同的人——作为“社会传感器”——如何评估和应对诸如流行病之类的危机，可以根据不同时刻对形势的社会感知来调整危机沟通。为了收集这些证据，我们提出了一个系统性风险的社会感知指数(SPSR)，作为对身体健康、心理健康、经济、社会关系、卫生系统和其他方面危害风险的情境威胁的指标。该指标是一项适用于危机局势的社会感知方法的核心，该方法在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间通过对Facebook™用户在2019冠状病毒病相关出版物中发表的13万多条公众评论进行内容分析而实施。该内容编码允许创建在为期一年的描述性纵向分析期间监测的SPSR指数。该指数与社会系统内共同发生的事件相关，即跨测量周期的流行病学指标(例如，新死亡;累计感染病例数;重症监护病房住院)，并倾向于反映流行病学情况的严重程度(例如，在最严重的大流行浪潮期间登记的最高水平)。然而，也存在差异，在严重程度较低的情况下，即住院和死亡人数较低(如学年开始)，或在严重程度较高的情况下(如圣诞节期间的第二次大流行浪潮)，登记的特殊防范风险较高，这表明除流行病学情况外，还有其他因素影响了社会看法。在SPSR达到峰值的每个“危机期”之后，都有一个“恢复期”，不断向前一个测量周期的平均水平下降。这既可以表明社会弹性(恢复和资源增强)，也可以表明在高严重性时期后风险的衰减。本研究作为危机社会感知方法概念的初步证明，能够监测各种危机类型(如健康危机或气候危机)的社会系统动态。

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引用次数: 0

Exploring the effects of information insufficiency on residents’ intention to seek information about waste-to-energy incineration projects 探讨信息不足对居民寻求垃圾焚烧项目信息意愿的影响

IF 5.1 4区管理学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY

Journal of Risk Research

Pub Date : 2023-01-30 DOI: 10.1080/13669877.2023.2170454

Jing Zeng, Mengyue Li, Xiyu Pu, Liangjun Liu

Abstract Waste-to-energy (WTE) incineration provides an efficient and sustainable solution for disposing of municipal waste. However, the planning and construction of WTE incineration projects are prone to generating strong opposition from neighbors because of the potential environmental and health risks. From the standpoint of risk communication, this study explores the core determinants of information seeking intention regarding WTE incineration projects. The hypothesized model emphasizing the important role of information insufficiency is constructed based on the Risk Information Seeking and Processing model. The relationships between information seeking intention and core components are investigated using a survey of 1726 residents. The structural equation modeling results show that perceived current knowledge, perceived risk, negative emotion, perceived information gathering capacity, informational subjective norms, information insufficiency, and relevant channel beliefs are the primary predictors of intention to seek information. Additionally, the results indicate that information insufficiency has a mediating effect on the direction of intention to seek information. Relevant channel beliefs, in particular, affect information seeking intention indirectly through information insufficiency. Moreover, negative emotions such as ‘worry’ and ‘annoyance’ have different impacts on information insufficiency. ‘Worry’ positively influences information insufficiency, but ‘annoyance’ would be negatively related to information insufficiency. The theoretical implications are discussed, as well as practical guidance on risk communication.

摘要垃圾焚烧为处理城市垃圾提供了一种高效、可持续的解决方案。然而，由于潜在的环境和健康风险，WTE焚烧项目的规划和建设容易引起邻居的强烈反对。从风险沟通的角度，本研究探讨了WTE焚烧项目信息寻求意向的核心决定因素。在风险信息寻求与处理模型的基础上，构建了强调信息不足重要作用的假设模型。通过对1726名居民的调查，调查了信息寻求意向与核心成分之间的关系。结构方程建模结果表明，感知的当前知识、感知的风险、负面情绪、感知的信息收集能力、信息主观规范、信息不足和相关渠道信念是寻求信息意图的主要预测因素。此外，研究结果表明，信息不足对寻求信息的意向方向具有中介作用。尤其是相关渠道信念通过信息不足间接影响信息寻求意向。此外，“担忧”和“烦恼”等负面情绪对信息不足有不同的影响忧虑与信息不足呈正相关，烦恼与信息不足负相关。讨论了风险沟通的理论含义以及实践指导。

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引用次数: 0

Rationales of risk and uncertainty and their epistemological foundation by new phenomenology 风险与不确定性的理性及其新现象学的认识论基础

IF 5.1 4区管理学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY

Journal of Risk Research

Pub Date : 2023-01-05 DOI: 10.1080/13669877.2022.2162105

Manuel Schulz, J. Zinn

Abstract Risk studies have shown that many people rather than following rational means of managing risk refer to non-rational (hope, faith) and in-between rationales (trust, intuition), which are not irrational but reasonable and based on subjective experiences, which are difficult to overcome by the communication of mere expert knowledge. We suggest that the problem of analyzing subjective risk management can be itemized as a result of the tension between subjective and objectified forms of certitudes. To clarify this distinction, the article turns to the New Phenomenology of Hermann Schmitz for outlining the different epistemological foundations of rational, non-rational and in-between rationales. We then develop a model of three different forms of knowledge that are involved in subjective risk management and elaborate the basic neo-phenomenological distinction of subjective and objective facts by differentiating the latter ones into rational and non-rational ones. We conclude with considering consequences of these epistemological challenges for risk communication.

风险研究表明，许多人不是遵循理性的风险管理手段，而是指非理性(希望、信念)和中间理性(信任、直觉)，它们不是非理性的，而是合理的，是基于主观经验的，仅靠专业知识的交流是难以克服的。我们认为，分析主观风险管理的问题可以逐项列出，因为确定性的主观形式和客观形式之间存在紧张关系。为了澄清这一区别，本文转向赫尔曼·施密茨的《新现象学》，概述了理性、非理性和中间理性的不同认识论基础。然后，我们建立了一个涉及主观风险管理的三种不同形式的知识的模型，并通过将后者区分为理性和非理性，详细阐述了主观和客观事实的基本新现象学区分。最后，我们考虑了这些认识论挑战对风险沟通的影响。

引用次数: 2

Influences of PM2.5 pollution on the public’s negative emotions, risk perceptions, and coping behaviors: a cross-national study in China and Korea PM2.5污染对公众负面情绪、风险认知和应对行为的影响：中韩两国的跨国家研究

IF 5.1 4区管理学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY

Journal of Risk Research

Pub Date : 2023-01-04 DOI: 10.1080/13669877.2022.2162106

Jia Chen, Lin Wang, Haiying Wang, Heechan Kang, Moon-Hyon Hwang, Do Gyun Lee

Abstract This study is a cross-national study and aimed to investigate how perception of PM2.5 air pollution influences public’s avoidant and protective behaviors, whether there are correlations between the public’s PM2.5 negative emotions, risk perception and coping behaviors, and whether there are significant differences between China and Korea. To better understand the mechanisms of coping behaviors related to the risk of PM2.5 exposure, the study divided coping behaviors into avoidant behaviors, which reduce exposure to PM2.5, and protective behaviors, which reduce the health hazards of PM2.5, for more specific analysis. Three hypotheses were proposed. The results of a comparative analysis showed differences in the mechanisms mediating the relationship between PM2.5 risk perceptions and coping behaviors, between the Chinese and Korean participants. The positive correlation between risk perception and coping behaviors was partially supported, and the ‘negative emotions-risk perception-risk coping behavior’ explanatory pathway was partially supported as well. The results of this study provide valuable insight into the psychology of the public affected by PM2.5 and aid in better communicating the risks of and effective response to the impact of PM2.5 pollution.

摘要本研究是一项跨国家研究，旨在调查PM2.5空气污染感知如何影响公众的回避和保护行为，公众的PM2.5负面情绪、风险感知和应对行为之间是否存在相关性，以及中韩之间是否存在显著差异。为了更好地了解应对行为与PM2.5暴露风险相关的机制，该研究将应对行为分为回避型行为和保护型行为，前者减少PM2.5暴露，后者减少PM2.5对健康的危害，以进行更具体的分析。提出了三个假设。比较分析结果显示，中国和韩国参与者在PM2.5风险认知和应对行为之间的中介机制方面存在差异。风险感知与应对行为之间的正相关性得到部分支持，“负面情绪-风险感知-风险应对行为”解释路径也得到部分支持。这项研究的结果为了解受PM2.5影响的公众心理提供了宝贵的见解，有助于更好地传达PM2.5污染的风险和有效应对PM2.5污染影响。

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引用次数: 0

When information security depends on font size: how the saliency of warnings affects protection behavior. 当信息安全取决于字体大小:警告的显著性如何影响保护行为。

IF 5.1 4区管理学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY

Journal of Risk Research

Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/13669877.2022.2142952

Nico Ebert, Kurt A Ackermann, Angela Bearth

Prior research on how to improve the effectiveness of information security warnings has predominantly focused on either the informational content of warnings or their visual saliency. In an online experiment (N = 1'486), we disentangle the effect of both manipulations and demonstrate that both factors simultaneously influence decision making. Our data indicate that the proportion of people who engage in protection behavior can be increased by roughly 65% by making a particular warning message more visually salient (i.e. a more conspicuous visual design is used). We also show that varying the message's saliency can make people behave very differently when confronted with the same threat or behave very similarly when confronted with threats that differ widely in terms of severity of outcomes. Our results suggest that the visual design of a warning may warrant at least as much attention as the informational content that the warning message conveys.

先前关于如何提高信息安全预警有效性的研究主要集中在预警的信息内容或其视觉显著性上。在一项在线实验(N = 1'486)中，我们解开了这两种操纵的影响，并证明这两种因素同时影响决策。我们的数据表明，通过使特定的警告信息在视觉上更突出(即使用更明显的视觉设计)，参与保护行为的人的比例可以增加大约65%。我们还表明，不同的信息的显著性可以使人们在面对相同的威胁时表现得非常不同，或者在面对结果严重程度不同的威胁时表现得非常相似。我们的研究结果表明，警告的视觉设计可以保证至少与警告信息所传达的信息内容一样多的关注。

引用次数: 1

Associations between COVID-19 Risk Perceptions and Mental Health, Wellbeing, and Risk Behaviours. 新冠肺炎风险认知与心理健康、幸福感和风险行为之间的关联

IF 2.4 4区管理学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY

Journal of Risk Research

Pub Date : 2022-12-02 Epub Date: 2022-11-12 DOI: 10.1080/13669877.2022.2127849

Maddy L Dyer, Hannah M Sallis, Jasmine N Khouja, Sarah Dryhurst, Marcus R Munafò

Background: Mental health has worsened, and substance use has increased for some people during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Some cross-sectional studies suggest that higher COVID-19 risk perceptions are related to poorer mental health and greater risk behaviours (e.g., substance use). However, longitudinal and genetic data are needed to help to reduce the likelihood of reverse causality.

Methods: We used cross-sectional, longitudinal, and polygenic risk score (PRS; for anxiety, depression, wellbeing) data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). We examined cross-sectional and prospective longitudinal associations between COVID-19 risk perceptions (i.e., cognitive, affective, self, other, and a combined 'holistic' measure) and mental health (i.e., anxiety, depression), wellbeing, and risk behaviours. Pandemic (April-July 2020) and pre-pandemic (2003-2017) data (ns = 233-5,115) were included.

Results: Higher COVID-19 risk perceptions (holistic) were associated with anxiety (OR 2.78, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.20 to 3.52), depression (OR 1.65, 95% CI 1.24 to 2.18), low wellbeing (OR 1.76, 95% CI 1.45 to 2.13), and increased alcohol use (OR 1.46, 95% CI 1.24 to 1.72). Higher COVID-19 risk perceptions were also associated with self-isolating given a suspected COVID-19 infection (OR 1.74, 95% CI 1.13 to 2.68), and less face-to-face contact (OR 0.83, 95% CI 0.70 to 0.98) and physical contact (OR 0.83, 95% CI 0.68 to 1.00). Pre-pandemic anxiety (OR 1.64, 95% CI 1.29 to 2.09) and low wellbeing (OR 1.41, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.74) were associated with higher COVID-19 risk perceptions. The depression PRS (b 0.21, 95% CI 0.02 to 0.40) and wellbeing PRS (b -0.29, 95% CI -0.48 to -0.09) were associated with higher and lower COVID-19 risk perceptions, respectively.

Conclusions: Poorer mental health and wellbeing are associated with higher COVID-19 risk perceptions, and longitudinal and genetic data suggest that they may play a causal role in COVID-19 risk perceptions.

摘要在冠状病毒（新冠肺炎）大流行期间，一些人的心理健康状况恶化，药物使用增加。一些横断面研究表明，较高的新冠肺炎风险认知与较差的心理健康和较高的风险行为（如药物使用）有关。然而，需要纵向和遗传数据来帮助降低反向因果关系的可能性。我们使用了雅芳父母和儿童纵向研究（ALSPAC）的横断面、纵向和多基因风险评分（PRS；用于焦虑、抑郁和幸福感）数据。我们研究了新冠肺炎风险认知（即认知、情感、自我、其他和综合“整体”测量）与心理健康（即焦虑、抑郁）、幸福感和风险行为之间的横截面和前瞻性纵向关联。包括大流行（2020年4月至7月）和大流行前（2003年至2017年）的数据（ns=233-5115）。较高的新冠肺炎风险认知（整体）与焦虑（OR 2.78，95%置信区间[CI]2.20至3.52）、抑郁（OR 1.65，95%CI 1.24至2.18）、低幸福感（OR 1.76，95%CI 1.45至2.13）、，以及酒精使用增加（OR 1.46，95%CI 1.24至1.72）。在疑似新冠肺炎感染的情况下，较高的新冠肺炎风险认知也与自我安慰相关（OR 1.74，95%CI 1.13至2.68），面对面接触较少（OR 0.83，95%CI 0.70至0.98）和身体接触较少（OR0.83，95%CI 0.68至1.00）。流行前焦虑（OR 1.64，95%CI 1.29至2.09）和低幸福感（OR 1.41，95%CI 1.15至1.74）与较高的新冠肺炎风险认知相关。抑郁症PRS（b 0.21，95%CI 0.02至0.40）和幸福感PRS（b − 0.29，95%CI−0.48至−0.09）分别与较高和较低的新冠肺炎风险认知相关。心理健康和幸福感较差与新冠肺炎风险认知较高有关，纵向和遗传数据表明，它们可能在新冠肺炎风险认知中发挥因果作用。

{"title":"Associations between COVID-19 Risk Perceptions and Mental Health, Wellbeing, and Risk Behaviours.","authors":"Maddy L Dyer, Hannah M Sallis, Jasmine N Khouja, Sarah Dryhurst, Marcus R Munafò","doi":"10.1080/13669877.2022.2127849","DOIUrl":"10.1080/13669877.2022.2127849","url":null,"abstract":"Background: Mental health has worsened, and substance use has increased for some people during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Some cross-sectional studies suggest that higher COVID-19 risk perceptions are related to poorer mental health and greater risk behaviours (e.g., substance use). However, longitudinal and genetic data are needed to help to reduce the likelihood of reverse causality.Methods: We used cross-sectional, longitudinal, and polygenic risk score (PRS; for anxiety, depression, wellbeing) data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). We examined cross-sectional and prospective longitudinal associations between COVID-19 risk perceptions (i.e., cognitive, affective, self, other, and a combined 'holistic' measure) and mental health (i.e., anxiety, depression), wellbeing, and risk behaviours. Pandemic (April-July 2020) and pre-pandemic (2003-2017) data (ns = 233-5,115) were included.Results: Higher COVID-19 risk perceptions (holistic) were associated with anxiety (OR 2.78, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.20 to 3.52), depression (OR 1.65, 95% CI 1.24 to 2.18), low wellbeing (OR 1.76, 95% CI 1.45 to 2.13), and increased alcohol use (OR 1.46, 95% CI 1.24 to 1.72). Higher COVID-19 risk perceptions were also associated with self-isolating given a suspected COVID-19 infection (OR 1.74, 95% CI 1.13 to 2.68), and less face-to-face contact (OR 0.83, 95% CI 0.70 to 0.98) and physical contact (OR 0.83, 95% CI 0.68 to 1.00). Pre-pandemic anxiety (OR 1.64, 95% CI 1.29 to 2.09) and low wellbeing (OR 1.41, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.74) were associated with higher COVID-19 risk perceptions. The depression PRS (b 0.21, 95% CI 0.02 to 0.40) and wellbeing PRS (b -0.29, 95% CI -0.48 to -0.09) were associated with higher and lower COVID-19 risk perceptions, respectively.Conclusions: Poorer mental health and wellbeing are associated with higher COVID-19 risk perceptions, and longitudinal and genetic data suggest that they may play a causal role in COVID-19 risk perceptions.","PeriodicalId":16975,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Research","volume":"25 1","pages":"1372-1394"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2022-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7615237/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42452301","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

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