Matthew James Angling, O. Nogués-Correig, V. Nguyen, Sanita Vetra-Carvalho, Francois-Xavier Bocquet, K. Nordstrom, Stacey Elizabeth Melville, G. Savastano, S. Mohanty, D. Masters
Radio occultation (RO) provides a cost-effective component of the overall sensor mix required to characterise the ionosphere over wide areas and in areas where it is not possible to deploy ground sensors. The paper provides a description of the RO constellation that has been developed and deployed by Spire Global. This constellation and its associated ground infrastructure is now producing data that can be used to characterise the bulk ionosphere, lower ionosphere perturbations and ionospheric scintillation.
{"title":"Sensing the ionosphere with the Spire radio occultation constellation","authors":"Matthew James Angling, O. Nogués-Correig, V. Nguyen, Sanita Vetra-Carvalho, Francois-Xavier Bocquet, K. Nordstrom, Stacey Elizabeth Melville, G. Savastano, S. Mohanty, D. Masters","doi":"10.1051/swsc/2021040","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2021040","url":null,"abstract":"Radio occultation (RO) provides a cost-effective component of the overall sensor mix required to characterise the ionosphere over wide areas and in areas where it is not possible to deploy ground sensors. The paper provides a description of the RO constellation that has been developed and deployed by Spire Global. This constellation and its associated ground infrastructure is now producing data that can be used to characterise the bulk ionosphere, lower ionosphere perturbations and ionospheric scintillation.","PeriodicalId":17034,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2021-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41859078","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. Hamini, G. Auxepaules, Lionel Birée, G. Kenfack, A. Kerdraon, K. Klein, P. Lespagnol, S. Masson, Lucile Coutouly, Christian Fabrice, Renaud Romagnan
Radio bursts are sensitive tracers of non-thermal electron populations in the solar corona. They are produced by electron beams and shock waves propagating through the corona and the Heliosphere, and by trapped electron populations in coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and in quiescent active regions. Combining space borne and ground-based radio spectrographs allows one to track disturbances all the way between the low corona, near or at the sites of particle acceleration, and the spacecraft. Radio observations are therefore a significant tool in probing the solar origin of heliospheric disturbances, which is a central research topic as witnessed by the Parker Solar Probe and Solar Orbiter missions. The full scientific return of these projects needs vigorous ground-based support, which at radio wavelengths covers altitudes up to about a solar radius above the photosphere. Besides research in solar and heliospheric physics, monitoring solar radio bursts also supports space weather services. On occasion radio bursts can themselves be a space weather hazard. The Nanc{c}ay radio astronomy station in central France has a long tradition of monitoring radio emission at decimetre-to-metre wavelengths. This article describes the radio spectrograph ORFEES ({it Observations Radiospectrographiques pour FEDOME et l'Etude des Eruptions Solaires}). It observes the whole-Sun flux density between 144 and 1004 MHz, which pertains to regions between the low corona and about half a solar radius above the photosphere. ORFEES is the result of a partnership between Observatoire de Paris and the French Air Force, which operates the experimental space weather service FEDOME. The primary use of the instrument at Paris Observatory is the astrophysical observation. Low-resolution data with rapid availability are presently produced for the French Air Force. Similar information can be made available to a broader range of space-weather service providers. This article gives an overview of the instrument design and the access to the data, and shows a few illustrative observations.
{"title":"ORFEES - a radio spectrograph for the study of solar radio bursts and space weather applications","authors":"A. Hamini, G. Auxepaules, Lionel Birée, G. Kenfack, A. Kerdraon, K. Klein, P. Lespagnol, S. Masson, Lucile Coutouly, Christian Fabrice, Renaud Romagnan","doi":"10.1051/swsc/2021039","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2021039","url":null,"abstract":"Radio bursts are sensitive tracers of non-thermal electron populations in the solar corona. They are produced by electron beams and shock waves propagating through the corona and the Heliosphere, and by trapped electron populations in coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and in quiescent active regions. Combining space borne and ground-based radio spectrographs allows one to track disturbances all the way between the low corona, near or at the sites of particle acceleration, and the spacecraft. Radio observations are therefore a significant tool in probing the solar origin of heliospheric disturbances, which is a central research topic as witnessed by the Parker Solar Probe and Solar Orbiter missions. The full scientific return of these projects needs vigorous ground-based support, which at radio wavelengths covers altitudes up to about a solar radius above the photosphere. Besides research in solar and heliospheric physics, monitoring solar radio bursts also supports space weather services. On occasion radio bursts can themselves be a space weather hazard. The Nanc{c}ay radio astronomy station in central France has a long tradition of monitoring radio emission at decimetre-to-metre wavelengths. This article describes the radio spectrograph ORFEES ({it Observations Radiospectrographiques pour FEDOME et l'Etude des Eruptions Solaires}). It observes the whole-Sun flux density between 144 and 1004 MHz, which pertains to regions between the low corona and about half a solar radius above the photosphere. ORFEES is the result of a partnership between Observatoire de Paris and the French Air Force, which operates the experimental space weather service FEDOME. The primary use of the instrument at Paris Observatory is the astrophysical observation. Low-resolution data with rapid availability are presently produced for the French Air Force. Similar information can be made available to a broader range of space-weather service providers. This article gives an overview of the instrument design and the access to the data, and shows a few illustrative observations.","PeriodicalId":17034,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2021-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41527887","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. Brunet, A. Sicard, C. Papadimitriou, D. Lazaro, P. Caron
Electric Orbit Raising (EOR) for telecommunication satellites has allowed significant reduction in on-board fuel mass, at the price of extended transfer durations. These relatively long transfers, which usually span a few months, cross large spans of the radiation belts, resulting in significant exposure of the spacecraft to space radiations. Since they are not very populated, the radiation environment of intermediate regions of the radiation belts is less constrained than on popular orbits such as LEO or GEO on standard environment models. In particular, there is a need for more specific models for the MeV energy range proton fluxes, responsible for solar arrays degradations, and hence critical for EOR missions. As part of the ESA ARTES program, ONERA has developed a specification model of proton fluxes dedicated for EOR missions. This model is able to estimate the average proton fluxes between 60 keV and 20MeV on arbitrary trajectories on the typical durations of EOR transfers. A global statistical model of the radiation belts was extracted from the Van Allen Probes (RBSP) RBSPICE data. For regions with no or low sampling, simulation results from the Salammbô radiation belt model were used. A special care was taken to model the temporal dynamics of the belts on the considered mission durations. A Gaussian Process (GP) model was developed, allowing to compute analytically the distribution of the average fluxes on arbitrary mission durations. Satellites trajectories can be flown in the resulting global distribution, yielding the proton flux spectrum distribution as seen by the spacecraft. We show results of the model on a typical EOR trajectory. The obtained fluxes are compared to the standard AP8 model, the AP9 model, and validated using the THEMIS satellites data.We illustrate the expected e ect on solar cell degradation, where our model is showing an increase of up to 20% degradation prediction compared to AP8.
电信卫星的电力轨道提升(EOR)使机载燃料质量大大减少，但代价是延长了转移时间。这些相对较长的传输，通常跨越几个月，跨越辐射带的大跨度，导致航天器暴露在空间辐射中。由于人口不是很多，辐射带中间区域的辐射环境在标准环境模型下比在LEO或GEO等流行轨道上受到的约束要小。特别是，需要更具体的MeV能量范围质子通量模型，这是太阳能电池阵列退化的原因，因此对提高采收率任务至关重要。作为ESA ARTES计划的一部分，ONERA开发了用于EOR任务的质子通量规范模型。该模型能够在典型的EOR转移持续时间内，在任意轨迹上估计60 keV至20MeV之间的平均质子通量。从范艾伦探测器(Van Allen probe, RBSP)的RBSPICE数据中提取了辐射带的全球统计模型。对于没有采样或采样率低的区域，采用Salammbô辐射带模型的模拟结果。特别注意按照所考虑的任务持续时间来模拟带的时间动态。建立了高斯过程(GP)模型，可以解析地计算任意任务持续时间内平均通量的分布。卫星的轨迹可以在最终的全球分布中飞行，从而得到航天器所看到的质子通量谱分布。我们展示了该模型在典型EOR轨迹上的结果。将得到的通量与标准AP8模型、AP9模型进行了比较，并使用THEMIS卫星数据进行了验证。我们说明了对太阳能电池退化的预期影响，其中我们的模型显示，与AP8相比，退化预测增加了20%。
{"title":"OMEP-EOR: A MeV proton flux specification model for Electric Orbit Raising missions","authors":"A. Brunet, A. Sicard, C. Papadimitriou, D. Lazaro, P. Caron","doi":"10.1051/swsc/2021038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2021038","url":null,"abstract":"Electric Orbit Raising (EOR) for telecommunication satellites has allowed significant reduction in on-board fuel mass, at the price of extended transfer durations. These relatively long transfers, which usually span a few months, cross large spans of the radiation belts, resulting in significant exposure of the spacecraft to space radiations. Since they are not very populated, the radiation environment of intermediate regions of the radiation belts is less constrained than on popular orbits such as LEO or GEO on standard environment models. In particular, there is a need for more specific models for the MeV energy range proton fluxes, responsible for solar arrays degradations, and hence critical for EOR missions. As part of the ESA ARTES program, ONERA has developed a specification model of proton fluxes dedicated for EOR missions. This model is able to estimate the average proton fluxes between 60 keV and 20MeV on arbitrary trajectories on the typical durations of EOR transfers. A global statistical model of the radiation belts was extracted from the Van Allen Probes (RBSP) RBSPICE data. For regions with no or low sampling, simulation results from the Salammbô radiation belt model were used. A special care was taken to model the temporal dynamics of the belts on the considered mission durations. A Gaussian Process (GP) model was developed, allowing to compute analytically the distribution of the average fluxes on arbitrary mission durations. Satellites trajectories can be flown in the resulting global distribution, yielding the proton flux spectrum distribution as seen by the spacecraft. We show results of the model on a typical EOR trajectory. The obtained fluxes are compared to the standard AP8 model, the AP9 model, and validated using the THEMIS satellites data.We illustrate the expected e ect on solar cell degradation, where our model is showing an increase of up to 20% degradation prediction compared to AP8.","PeriodicalId":17034,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2021-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47795374","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
R. McGranaghan, E. Camporeale, M. Georgoulis, A. Anastasiadis
The onset and rapid advance of the Digital Age have brought challenges and opportunities for scientific research characterized by a continuously evolving data landscape reflected in the four V’s of big data: volume, variety, veracity, and velocity. The big data landscape supersedes traditional means of storage, processing, management, and exploration, and requires adaptation and innovation across the full data lifecycle (i.e., collection, storage and processing, analytics, and representation). The Topical Issue, “Space Weather research in the Digital Age and across the full data lifecycle”, collects research from across the full data lifecycle (collection, management, analysis, and communication; collectively “Data Science”) and offers a tractable compendium that illustrates the latest computational and data science trends, tools, and advances for Space Weather research. We introduce the paradigm shift in Space Weather and the articles in the Topical Issue. We create a network view of the research that highlights the contribution to the change of paradigm and reveals the trends that will guide it hereafter.
{"title":"Space Weather research in the Digital Age and across the full data lifecycle: Introduction to the Topical Issue","authors":"R. McGranaghan, E. Camporeale, M. Georgoulis, A. Anastasiadis","doi":"10.1051/swsc/2021037","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2021037","url":null,"abstract":"The onset and rapid advance of the Digital Age have brought challenges and opportunities for scientific research characterized by a continuously evolving data landscape reflected in the four V’s of big data: volume, variety, veracity, and velocity. The big data landscape supersedes traditional means of storage, processing, management, and exploration, and requires adaptation and innovation across the full data lifecycle (i.e., collection, storage and processing, analytics, and representation). The Topical Issue, “Space Weather research in the Digital Age and across the full data lifecycle”, collects research from across the full data lifecycle (collection, management, analysis, and communication; collectively “Data Science”) and offers a tractable compendium that illustrates the latest computational and data science trends, tools, and advances for Space Weather research. We introduce the paradigm shift in Space Weather and the articles in the Topical Issue. We create a network view of the research that highlights the contribution to the change of paradigm and reveals the trends that will guide it hereafter.","PeriodicalId":17034,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2021-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41964999","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
G. March, J. van den Ijssel, C. Siemes, P. Visser, E. Doornbos, M. Pilinski
The satellite acceleration data from the CHAMP, GRACE, GOCE , and Swarm missions provide detailed information on the thermosphere density over the last two decades. Recent work on reducing errors in the modelling of the spacecraft geometry has already greatly reduced scale differences between the thermosphere data sets from these missions. However, residual inconsistencies between the data sets and between data and models are still present. To a large extent, these differences originate in the modelling of the gas-surface interactions ( GSI ), which is part of the satellite aerodynamic modelling used in the acceleration to density data processing. Physics-based GSI models require in- situ atmospheric composition and temperature data that are not measured by any of the above-mentioned satellites and, as a consequence, rely on thermosphere models for these inputs. To reduce the dependence on existing thermosphere models, we choose in this work a GSI model with a constant energy accommodation coefficient per mission, which we optimize exploiting particular attitude manoeuvres and wind analyses to increase the self-consistency of the multi-mission thermosphere mass density data sets. We compare our results with those based on variable energy accommodation obtained by different studies and semi-empirical models to show the principal differences. The presented comparisons provide the novel opportunity to quantify the discrepancies between current GSI models. Among the presented data, density variations with variable accommodation are within +- 10 % and peaks can reach up to 15 % at the poles. The largest differences occur during low solar activity periods. In addition, we utilize a series of attitude manoeuvres performed in May 2014 by the Swarm A and C satellites, which are flying in close proximity, to evaluate the residual inconsistency of the density observations as a function of the energy accommodation coefficient. Our analysis demonstrates that an energy accommodation coefficient of 0.85 maximizes the consistency of the Swarm density observations during the attitude manoeuvres. Using such coefficient, for Swarm-A and Swarm-C the new density would be lower in magnitude with a 4-5 % difference. In recent studies, similar energy accommodation coefficients were retrieved for the CHAMP and GOCE missions through investigating thermospheric winds. These new values for the energy accommodation coefficient provide a higher consistency among different missions and models. A comparison of neutral densities between current thermosphere models and observations indicates that semi-empirical models such as NRLMSISE -00 and DTM -2013 significantly overestimate the density, and that an overall higher consistency between the observations from the different missions can be achieved with the presented assumptions. The new densities from this work provide consistencies of 4.13 % and 3.65 % between minimum and maximum mean ratios among the selected missions with NR
{"title":"Gas-surface interactions modelling infuence on satellite aerodynamics and thermosphere mass density","authors":"G. March, J. van den Ijssel, C. Siemes, P. Visser, E. Doornbos, M. Pilinski","doi":"10.1051/swsc/2021035","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2021035","url":null,"abstract":"The satellite acceleration data from the CHAMP, GRACE, GOCE , and Swarm missions provide detailed information on the thermosphere density over the last two decades. Recent work on reducing errors in the modelling of the spacecraft geometry has already greatly reduced scale differences between the thermosphere data sets from these missions. However, residual inconsistencies between the data sets and between data and models are still present. To a large extent, these differences originate in the modelling of the gas-surface interactions ( GSI ), which is part of the satellite aerodynamic modelling used in the acceleration to density data processing. Physics-based GSI models require in- situ atmospheric composition and temperature data that are not measured by any of the above-mentioned satellites and, as a consequence, rely on thermosphere models for these inputs. To reduce the dependence on existing thermosphere models, we choose in this work a GSI model with a constant energy accommodation coefficient per mission, which we optimize exploiting particular attitude manoeuvres and wind analyses to increase the self-consistency of the multi-mission thermosphere mass density data sets. We compare our results with those based on variable energy accommodation obtained by different studies and semi-empirical models to show the principal differences. The presented comparisons provide the novel opportunity to quantify the discrepancies between current GSI models. Among the presented data, density variations with variable accommodation are within +- 10 % and peaks can reach up to 15 % at the poles. The largest differences occur during low solar activity periods. In addition, we utilize a series of attitude manoeuvres performed in May 2014 by the Swarm A and C satellites, which are flying in close proximity, to evaluate the residual inconsistency of the density observations as a function of the energy accommodation coefficient. Our analysis demonstrates that an energy accommodation coefficient of 0.85 maximizes the consistency of the Swarm density observations during the attitude manoeuvres. Using such coefficient, for Swarm-A and Swarm-C the new density would be lower in magnitude with a 4-5 % difference. In recent studies, similar energy accommodation coefficients were retrieved for the CHAMP and GOCE missions through investigating thermospheric winds. These new values for the energy accommodation coefficient provide a higher consistency among different missions and models. A comparison of neutral densities between current thermosphere models and observations indicates that semi-empirical models such as NRLMSISE -00 and DTM -2013 significantly overestimate the density, and that an overall higher consistency between the observations from the different missions can be achieved with the presented assumptions. The new densities from this work provide consistencies of 4.13 % and 3.65 % between minimum and maximum mean ratios among the selected missions with NR","PeriodicalId":17034,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2021-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43669761","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Aims: The semi-empirical Drag Temperature Models (DTM) calculate the Earth’s upper atmosphere’s temperature, density, and composition. They were applied mainly for spacecraft orbit computation. We developed an uncertainty tool that we implemented in the DTM2020 thermosphere model. The model is assessed and compared with the recently HASDM neutral density released publicly in 2020. Methods: The total neutral density dataset covers all high-resolution CHAMP, GRACE, GOCE, and SWARM data spanning almost two solar cycles. We constructed the uncertainty model using statistical binning analysis and least-square fitting techniques, allowing the development of a global sigma error model to function the main variabilities driving the thermosphere state. The model is represented mathematically by a nonlinear manifold approximation in a 6-D space parameter. Results: The results reveal that the altitude parameter presents the most notable error range during quiet and moderate magnetic activity (Kp ≤ 5). However, the most considerable uncertainty appears during severe or extreme geomagnetic activities. The comparison with density data provided by the SET HASDM database highlights some coherent features on the mechanisms occurring in the thermosphere. Moreover, it confirms the tool’s relevance to provide a qualitative database of neutral densities uncertainties values deduced from the DTM2020 model.
{"title":"Uncertainty quantification of the DTM2020 thermosphere model","authors":"C. Boniface, S. Bruinsma","doi":"10.1051/swsc/2021034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2021034","url":null,"abstract":"Aims: The semi-empirical Drag Temperature Models (DTM) calculate the Earth’s upper atmosphere’s temperature, density, and composition. They were applied mainly for spacecraft orbit computation. We developed an uncertainty tool that we implemented in the DTM2020 thermosphere model. The model is assessed and compared with the recently HASDM neutral density released publicly in 2020. Methods: The total neutral density dataset covers all high-resolution CHAMP, GRACE, GOCE, and SWARM data spanning almost two solar cycles. We constructed the uncertainty model using statistical binning analysis and least-square fitting techniques, allowing the development of a global sigma error model to function the main variabilities driving the thermosphere state. The model is represented mathematically by a nonlinear manifold approximation in a 6-D space parameter. Results: The results reveal that the altitude parameter presents the most notable error range during quiet and moderate magnetic activity (Kp ≤ 5). However, the most considerable uncertainty appears during severe or extreme geomagnetic activities. The comparison with density data provided by the SET HASDM database highlights some coherent features on the mechanisms occurring in the thermosphere. Moreover, it confirms the tool’s relevance to provide a qualitative database of neutral densities uncertainties values deduced from the DTM2020 model.","PeriodicalId":17034,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2021-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43276667","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Predicting solar activity is one of the most challenging topics among the various Space Weather and Space Climate issues. In the last decades, the constant enhancement of Space Climate data improved the comprehension of the related physical phenomena and the statistical bases for prediction algorithms. For this purpose, we used geomagnetic indices to provide a powerful algorithm (see Diego et al. [2010. J Geophys Res 115: A06103]) for the solar activity prediction, based on evaluating the recurrence rate in the geomagnetic activity. This paper aims to present the validation of our algorithm over solar cycle n. 24, for which a successful prediction was made, and upgrade it to forecast the shape and time as well as the amplitude of the upcoming cycle n. 25. Contrary to the consensus, we predict it to be quite high, with a maximum sunspot number of 205 ± 29, which should be reached in the first half of 2023. This prediction is consistent with the scenario in which the long-term Gleissberg cycle has reached its minimum in cycle n. 24, and the rising phase is beginning.
在各种空间天气和空间气候问题中，预测太阳活动是最具挑战性的课题之一。近几十年来，空间气候数据的不断增强，提高了对相关物理现象的认识，并为预测算法提供了统计基础。为此，我们使用地磁指数提供了一个强大的算法(见Diego et al.[2010])。[J] .地球物理学报，2004,19(6):591 - 591。本文的目的是在第n. 24太阳周期上对我们的算法进行验证，并对其进行升级，以预测即将到来的第n. 25太阳周期的形状、时间和振幅。与一般的预测相反，我们预测太阳黑子的数量会非常高，最大黑子数为205±29，应该会在2023年上半年达到。这一预测与长期格莱斯伯格周期在第24周期达到最低点，上升阶段开始的情景相一致。
{"title":"Geomagnetic activity recurrences for predicting the amplitude and shape of solar cycle n. 25","authors":"P. Diego, M. Laurenza","doi":"10.1051/swsc/2021036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2021036","url":null,"abstract":"Predicting solar activity is one of the most challenging topics among the various Space Weather and Space Climate issues. In the last decades, the constant enhancement of Space Climate data improved the comprehension of the related physical phenomena and the statistical bases for prediction algorithms. For this purpose, we used geomagnetic indices to provide a powerful algorithm (see Diego et al. [2010. J Geophys Res 115: A06103]) for the solar activity prediction, based on evaluating the recurrence rate in the geomagnetic activity. This paper aims to present the validation of our algorithm over solar cycle n. 24, for which a successful prediction was made, and upgrade it to forecast the shape and time as well as the amplitude of the upcoming cycle n. 25. Contrary to the consensus, we predict it to be quite high, with a maximum sunspot number of 205 ± 29, which should be reached in the first half of 2023. This prediction is consistent with the scenario in which the long-term Gleissberg cycle has reached its minimum in cycle n. 24, and the rising phase is beginning.","PeriodicalId":17034,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2021-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45159430","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
V. Carrasco, J. M. Nogales, J. Vaquero, T. Chatzistergos, I. Ermolli
Angelo Secchi (1818–1878) was an Italian Jesuit who made relevant scientific contributions in geophysics, meteorology, and astrophysics. He was a well-known pioneer in solar physics due to his theories and observations. Secchi published Le Soleil (The Sun) a summary of knowledge about our star in that time. Moreover, he published in this book his sunspot and prominence observations made during the period 1871–1875. In this work, we present a machine-readable version of these observations and a preliminary analysis of them.
{"title":"A note on the sunspot and prominence records made by Angelo Secchi during the period 1871–1875","authors":"V. Carrasco, J. M. Nogales, J. Vaquero, T. Chatzistergos, I. Ermolli","doi":"10.1051/swsc/2021033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2021033","url":null,"abstract":"Angelo Secchi (1818–1878) was an Italian Jesuit who made relevant scientific contributions in geophysics, meteorology, and astrophysics. He was a well-known pioneer in solar physics due to his theories and observations. Secchi published Le Soleil (The Sun) a summary of knowledge about our star in that time. Moreover, he published in this book his sunspot and prominence observations made during the period 1871–1875. In this work, we present a machine-readable version of these observations and a preliminary analysis of them.","PeriodicalId":17034,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2021-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47921980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Kirolosse M. Girgis, T. Hada, S. Matsukiyo, A. Yoshikawa
A test particle simulation code was developed to simulate the inner proton belt response during the intense geomagnetic storm of 15 May 2005. The guiding center model was implemented to compute the proton trajectories with an energy range of 70–180 MeV. The time-varying magnetic field model implemented in the simulations was computed by the Tsyganenko model TS05 with the associated inductive electric field. One of the most important features of the low-earth orbit (LEO) environment is the South Atlantic Anomaly, which imposes a dangerous radiation load on most LEO missions. This research aims to investigate the proton flux variations in the anomaly region with respect to space weather conditions. The results showed that during the main phase of the geomagnetic storm, the proton flux in the SAA decreased, whereas, throughout the initial and recovery phases, the proton flux was increased at most of the altitudes. Satellite measurements confirmed numerical results.
{"title":"Inner Radiation Belt Simulations of the Proton Flux Response in the South Atlantic Anomaly during the Geomagnetic Storm of 15 May 2005","authors":"Kirolosse M. Girgis, T. Hada, S. Matsukiyo, A. Yoshikawa","doi":"10.1051/SWSC/2021031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1051/SWSC/2021031","url":null,"abstract":"A test particle simulation code was developed to simulate the inner proton belt response during the intense geomagnetic storm of 15 May 2005. The guiding center model was implemented to compute the proton trajectories with an energy range of 70–180 MeV. The time-varying magnetic field model implemented in the simulations was computed by the Tsyganenko model TS05 with the associated inductive electric field. One of the most important features of the low-earth orbit (LEO) environment is the South Atlantic Anomaly, which imposes a dangerous radiation load on most LEO missions. This research aims to investigate the proton flux variations in the anomaly region with respect to space weather conditions. The results showed that during the main phase of the geomagnetic storm, the proton flux in the SAA decreased, whereas, throughout the initial and recovery phases, the proton flux was increased at most of the altitudes. Satellite measurements confirmed numerical results.","PeriodicalId":17034,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2021-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44523666","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Impulsive geomagnetic variations, latitudinally localized to the auroral zone, have been observed from 2015 to 2020. These impulsive events have been observed mostly in the pre-midnight sector as upward vertical perturbations. Diurnal variations in geomagnetically-triggered harmonic distortion events observed in Hydro-Québec’s Système de Mesure de Décalage Angulaire (SMDA) synchrophasor measurement system found to have a peak in the number of events around midnight. This was similar to diurnal rates of negative Bz geomagnetic impulsive events observed at nearby auroral zone magnetometers. Superposed epoch analysis demonstrates the impulses are regularly associated with increases in harmonic distortion observed at a nearby substation transformer. These large impulsive vertical geomagnetic perturbations appear to be local vortical ionospheric disturbances.
{"title":"Statistics of large impulsive magnetic events in the auroral zone","authors":"K. Reiter, S. Guillon, M. Connors, B. Jackel","doi":"10.1051/swsc/2021029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2021029","url":null,"abstract":"Impulsive geomagnetic variations, latitudinally localized to the auroral zone, have been observed from 2015 to 2020. These impulsive events have been observed mostly in the pre-midnight sector as upward vertical perturbations. Diurnal variations in geomagnetically-triggered harmonic distortion events observed in Hydro-Québec’s Système de Mesure de Décalage Angulaire (SMDA) synchrophasor measurement system found to have a peak in the number of events around midnight. This was similar to diurnal rates of negative Bz geomagnetic impulsive events observed at nearby auroral zone magnetometers. Superposed epoch analysis demonstrates the impulses are regularly associated with increases in harmonic distortion observed at a nearby substation transformer. These large impulsive vertical geomagnetic perturbations appear to be local vortical ionospheric disturbances.","PeriodicalId":17034,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2021-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42409685","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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