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Effect of NPK fertiliser on upper and basal stem diameters and implication on growth habit of tomato 氮磷钾对番茄茎上、基部直径的影响及对生长习性的影响
Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jssas.2023.09.002
Solomon O. Olagunju , Olufemi S. Sosanya , Oladele A. Oguntade , Kayode M. Adewusi , Paul A.S. Soremi , Abiodun O. Joda , Adesola L. Nassir

Prostrate growth caused by weak stems and variations in upper and basal stem diameters (USD and BSD, respectively) is inherent in tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) and can be aggravated by increased nitrogen fertiliser. Application of a nitrogen fertiliser rate that minimises variation in stem diameters and increases yield can contribute to improved tomato production. The tomato cvs. Buffalo, Cobra, Kerewa, Roma-Savanna, Roma-VF, Tropimech, and UC-82, were grown at Ilara and Imeko with 0, 30, 50 or 80 kg/ha of 15 N-15P-15 K fertiliser. Application of 15 N-15P-15 K increased stem diameter variation. Tomato cultivated in Ilara produced higher number of fruits and fruit weight/plant than those in Imeko but maintained similar habit (40.5° and 42.3°, respectively) in both locations. ‘Buffalo’ and ‘Roma-VF’ had 42.5° and 22.5° habits and fruit weights (84.4 and 103 g) above average under low (30 kg/ha) and high (80 kg/ha) rates of 15 N-15P-15 K, respectively; ‘Cobra’ combined erect growth (36.3° and 41.2°) and yield above average (107.4 and 101.5 g) under 30 and 80 kg/ha, respectively across locations. Out of 672 plants sampled, 67.4% had USD > BSD, 18.6% USD < BSD, and 14% had USD = BSD. With increased rates of 15 N-15P-15 K fertiliser up to 80 kg/ha, the percent of plants with USD > BSD increased from 49.4 to 76.2% and increased prostrate angle from 26.4° to 48.4°. Higher yield combined with erect growth above average can be achieved with 30 kg/ha in ‘Buffalo’ and ‘Cobra’ across the locations. Application of lower rates of 15 N-15P-15 K fertiliser can help in balancing the trade-off between erect growth and higher fruit yield of tomato.

番茄(Solanum lycopersicum L.)因茎秆细弱、上部和基部茎秆直径变化(分别为 USD 和 BSD)而导致匍匐生长,增加氮肥会加剧这种情况。施用氮肥能最大限度地减少茎秆直径的变化并提高产量,有助于提高番茄产量。番茄品种水牛、眼镜蛇、凯雷瓦、罗马-萨瓦纳、罗马-VF、Tropimech 和 UC-82 等番茄品种在伊拉拉(Ilara)和伊梅科(Imeko)种植时,每公顷施用 15 N-15P-15 K 肥料 0、30、50 或 80 公斤。施用 15 N-15P-15 K 增加了茎直径的变化。在伊拉拉种植的番茄比在伊梅科种植的番茄结出的果实数量和果实重量/株更高,但两地的番茄生长习性相似(分别为 40.5° 和 42.3°)。'Buffalo'和'Roma-VF'的生长习性分别为 42.5°和 22.5°,果重(84.4 克和 103 克)在 15 N-15P-15 K 的低浓度(30 公斤/公顷)和高浓度(80 公斤/公顷)条件下分别高于平均水平;'Cobra'在 30 公斤/公顷和 80 公斤/公顷条件下的直立生长(36.3°和 41.2°)和产量(107.4 克和 101.5 克)在各地均高于平均水平。在 672 株取样植株中,67.4% 有 USD > BSD,18.6% 有 USD < BSD,14% 有 USD = BSD。随着 15 N-15P-15 K 肥料用量增加到 80 千克/公顷,出现 USD > BSD 的植株比例从 49.4% 增加到 76.2%,匍匐角从 26.4°增加到 48.4°。水牛 "和 "眼镜蛇 "在不同地点施用 30 公斤/公顷的氮-15 时,产量较高,直立生长也高于平均水平。施用较低比率的 15 N-15P-15 K 肥料有助于平衡番茄直立生长和较高果实产量之间的权衡。
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引用次数: 0
Erratum regarding missing ethical statements for experimentation with animal subjects in previously published articles 关于以前发表的文章中缺少动物实验伦理声明的更正
Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jssas.2023.11.007
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引用次数: 0
Effect of fermentation on chemical and bioactive properties and phenolic profiles of caper (Capparis ovata Desf. var. ovata) flower buds in three different sizes 发酵对三种不同大小的山椒(Capparis ovata Desf.变种)花蕾的化学和生物活性特性及酚类物质的影响
Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jssas.2023.09.004
Mehmet Musa Özcan, Nazife Sultan Efe

In this study, caper buds collected in Konya were separated according to their size three different sizes (x ≤ 8 mm, 8 < x ≤ 13 mm, x > 13 mm). Caper buds were fermented at 8% and 12% brine concentration. Antioxidant activity, total phenol, phenolic components, carotenoid, flavonoid, salt, titration acidity and pH analyzes were performed on the 0., 5., 10., 30. and 45. days of the fermentation applied of the caper buds. The pH values of 12% brine concentration medium size caper buds ranged from 4.56 (5th day) to 5.01 (0th day). The titration acidity of small size caper buds with 8% brine concentration ranged from 0.02% (0th day) to 0.21% (30th day). The salt values of small size caper buds with 12% brine concentration varied between 6.22% (30th day) and 12.09% (0th day). In terms of total phenol content, small size caper buds fermented for 10 days and 8% brine concentration had the highest value of 345.31 mg/100 g. The flavonoid content of caper buds was determined as 2633.75 mg/100 g in small sized samples subjected to fermentation for 5 days at the highest 8% brine concentration. The carotenoid values of small size caper buds with 8% brine concentration varied between 0.52 mg/g (30th day) and 2.40 mg/g (0th day) during the fermentation period. It has been determined that the antioxidant activity values increase as fermentation progresses. The phenolic compounds with the highest percentage were found to be gallic acid, 3,4-dihydroxybenzoic acid, (+)-catechin, 1,2-dihydroxybenzene and syringic acid. The gallic acid values of medium sized caper buds with 8% brine concentration vary between 21.07 mg/kg (0th day) and 70.27 mg/kg (45th day) during fermentation. The 3,4-dihydroxybenzoic acid values of small size caper buds with 8% brine concentration were determined between 4.08 mg/kg (0th day) and 37.50 mg/kg (30th day) during fermentation. Dill extract with 0.3% concentration and coriander extract with 0.1% concentration were the most preferred ones in terms of taste.

在这项研究中,在科尼亚采集的水瓜芽根据其大小分为三种不同尺寸(x ≤ 8 毫米、8 < x ≤ 13 毫米、x > 13 毫米)。在 8%和 12%的盐水浓度下发酵锥芽。对发酵后 0、5、10、30 和 45 天的山椒芽进行了抗氧化活性、总酚、酚类成分、类胡萝卜素、类黄酮、盐、滴定酸度和 pH 值分析。盐水浓度为 12% 的中型山椒芽的 pH 值从 4.56(第 5 天)到 5.01(第 0 天)不等。盐水浓度为 8%的小型山椒芽的滴定酸度为 0.02%(第 0 天)至 0.21%(第 30 天)。盐水浓度为 12% 的小型山椒芽的盐值介于 6.22% (第 30 天)和 12.09% (第 0 天)之间。在总酚含量方面,发酵 10 天、盐水浓度为 8%的小型山椒芽的总酚含量最高,为 345.31 毫克/100 克。在发酵期间,盐水浓度为 8%的小型山椒芽的类胡萝卜素含量在 0.52 毫克/克(第 30 天)和 2.40 毫克/克(第 0 天)之间变化。据测定,抗氧化活性值随着发酵的进行而增加。发现百分比最高的酚类化合物是没食子酸、3,4-二羟基苯甲酸、(+)-儿茶素、1,2-二羟基苯和丁香酸。在发酵过程中,盐水浓度为 8%的中等大小山椒芽的没食子酸值介于 21.07 毫克/千克(第 0 天)和 70.27 毫克/千克(第 45 天)之间。在发酵过程中,盐水浓度为 8%的小型山椒芽的 3,4-二羟基苯甲酸值介于 4.08 毫克/千克(第 0 天)和 37.50 毫克/千克(第 30 天)之间。就口味而言,0.3%浓度的莳萝提取物和 0.1%浓度的芫荽提取物最受青睐。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluation of soil quality through simple additive soil quality index (SQI) of Tehsil Charsadda, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan 通过巴基斯坦开伯尔巴图克瓦省 Charsadda 县的简单土壤质量指数(SQI)评估土壤质量
Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jssas.2023.09.001
Muhammad Jamal Nasir , Muhammad Farooq Haider , Zeeshan Ali , Waqar Akhtar , Said Alam

In the study, the Simple Additive Soil Quality Index (SQI) is used to evaluate soil quality in Tehsil Charsadda, District Charsadda, Pakistan. Organic matter (OM), electrical conductivity (EC), phosphorus (P), acidity and basicity (pH), estimated nitrogen (EN), and soil texture were the parameters evaluated. The whole research region was split into 1*1 km grids for data collection, and samples were gathered from each grid along with XY coordinates. An augur was used to collect 172 samples from a depth of 30 to 45 cm. The collected samples were analyzed at the Agriculture Department in Charsadda. The index value for each soil quality indicator was determined, and then normalization was performed. Each SQ parameter was assigned a threshold value based on expert judgment and a review of the literature. The index values of each SQ parameter were added up to determine the SQI value. Using the Simple Additive Soil Quality Index (SQI), the area under poorly fertile soil accounts for 4835.52 ha (10.91%), moderately fertile soil accounts for 11853.90 ha (30.33%), and highly fertile soil accounts for nearly half of the research area (17338.1 ha (48.27%). The exceptionally productive soil is located in a large patch along the western boundary of the study area. Patches of poor fertile soil are generally found in the central, northern, and northeastern parts of the study area.

本研究采用简单土壤质量指数(SQI)来评估巴基斯坦 Charsadda 地区 Tehsil Charsadda 的土壤质量。评估参数包括有机质(OM)、导电率(EC)、磷(P)、酸碱度(pH)、估算氮(EN)和土壤质地。将整个研究区域划分为 1*1 千米的网格进行数据采集,并在每个网格中采集样本和 XY 坐标。使用螺旋钻从 30 至 45 厘米的深度采集了 172 个样本。收集到的样本在位于 Charsadda 的农业部进行了分析。确定每个土壤质量指标的指数值,然后进行归一化处理。根据专家判断和文献综述,为每个土壤质量参数指定了一个阈值。将每个 SQ 参数的指数值相加,得出 SQI 值。根据简单加法土壤质量指数(SQI),贫瘠土壤面积为 4835.52 公顷(占 10.91%),中等肥沃土壤面积为 11853.90 公顷(占 30.33%),高肥沃土壤面积占研究区域的近一半(17338.1 公顷,占 48.27%)。特别肥沃的土壤分布在研究区西部边界的一大片区域。贫瘠肥沃的土壤一般分布在研究区的中部、北部和东北部。
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引用次数: 0
Enhancing the shelf life of Thomson Novel oranges through nutritional and coating treatments 通过营养和涂层处理延长汤姆森新柑橘的货架期
Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jssas.2023.09.003
Babak Jamshidi , Leila Pourhosseini , Mahmoud Reza Ramezanpour , Seyed Vahid Alavi , Amir Lashgari

The post-harvest management of oranges is critical in Iran, given their importance as an agricultural commodity and a significant source of income for farmers. The study aimed to evaluate the effects of nutritional treatments and storage coatings on the yield and quality of Thomson Novel oranges in post-harvest conditions. A two-year factorial experiment was conducted in Sari, Mazandaran, Iran, to evaluate the effects of four nutritional treatments and nine storage coatings on the quality parameters of Thomson Novel oranges during post-harvest storage. The quality traits were monitored at 45-day intervals over the course of the study. Based on the results of ANOVA, both the individual effects of nutritional treatments and storage coatings were found to be statistically significant for all measured parameters, including fruit texture firmness, fruit peel thickness, vitamin C, titratable acidity, fruit sugar, fruit pH, and fresh weight. However, the interaction effects of nutritional treatments and storage coatings were only significant for fresh weight. The study found that the foliar application of potassium had a positive effect on post-harvest orange quality, while nylon and Xeda wax were the most effective storage coatings for improving various fruit quality parameters. These findings highlight the importance of using appropriate nutritional treatments and storage coatings to enhance the quality and prolong the shelf life of oranges during storage.

在伊朗,柑橘是重要的农产品,也是农民的重要收入来源,因此柑橘的采后管理至关重要。本研究旨在评估营养处理和贮藏涂层对收获后条件下汤姆森新柑橘的产量和质量的影响。在伊朗马赞达兰的萨里进行了一项为期两年的因子试验,以评估四种营养处理和九种贮藏涂层对收获后贮藏期间汤姆森新橙质量参数的影响。在研究过程中,每隔 45 天对品质特征进行一次监测。根据方差分析结果,营养处理和贮藏涂层的单独效应对所有测量参数都有显著的统计学意义,包括果实质地坚硬度、果皮厚度、维生素 C、可滴定酸度、果实糖度、果实 pH 值和鲜重。然而,营养处理和贮藏涂层的交互效应只对鲜重有显著影响。研究发现,叶面喷施钾对采后橙子的品质有积极影响,而尼龙和 Xeda 蜡是改善各种果实品质参数最有效的贮藏涂层。这些发现强调了使用适当的营养处理和贮藏涂层来提高橙子质量和延长其贮藏货架期的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Screening candidate plant species as trap and catch crops for the control of broomrape (Phelipanche mutelii) in rapeseed (Brassica napus) 甘蓝型油菜(Brassica napus)防治油菜(Phelipanche mutelii)的诱杀作物候选植物筛选
Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jssas.2023.08.002
Mehdi Minbashi Moeini , Javad Alimoradi , Nooshin Nezam Abadi , Mozhgan Veisi , Mónica Fernández-Aparicio

Broomrapes (Orobanche and Phelipanche species) are parasitic weeds that infect crops. To evaluate crops that can reduce broomrape damage as a trap or catch crop, two experiments were conducted for three years (2018–2020) under greenhouse conditions. The results showed that the tested crops were classified into three groups. The first group was non-hosts of P. mutelii, including cotton, garlic, flax, and cowpea. The second group of crops acted as catch crops and was parasitized by P.mutelii, including faba bean, annual red clover, mung bean, and hairy vetch. Among the catch crops, hairy vetch had the highest percentage of P. mutelii reduction in shoot numbers and dry biomass by 81% and 85%, respectively. Also, the highest percentage increase in shoot and root dry biomass was achieved by 70% and 79% in rapeseed-hairy vetch rotation. The third group was berseem clover which acted as a trap crop and stimulated.

P. mutelii seed germination without supporting parasitism. If berseem clover is sown as a trap crop in rotation with rapeseed infested by P. mutelii, it can reduce shoot numbers and dry biomass of broomrape by 70% and increase the dry biomass of aerial parts and roots of rapeseed by 62% and 60%, respectively.

扫帚草(Orobanche 和 Phelipanche 种)是一种感染作物的寄生杂草。为评估可作为诱捕或捕捉作物减少扫帚草危害的作物,在温室条件下进行了为期三年(2018-2020 年)的两项实验。结果显示,受试作物被分为三组。第一组是非寄主作物,包括棉花、大蒜、亚麻和豇豆。第二类作物为捕食作物,被 P.mutelii 寄生,包括蚕豆、一年生红三叶草、绿豆和毛绒毛菜。在捕获作物中,毛茸茸的薇菜被 P. mutelii 减少芽数和干生物量的百分比最高,分别为 81% 和 85%。此外,油菜籽-毛薇菜轮作中,芽和根的干生物量增加的百分比最高,分别为 70% 和 79%。第三组是三叶青,它是一种诱捕作物,能刺激 P. mutelii 种子萌发,但不支持寄生。如果将三叶青作为诱捕作物与受蓟马侵染的油菜轮作播种,可减少 70% 的蓟马嫩枝数量和干生物量,并使油菜的气生部分和根的干生物量分别增加 62% 和 60%。
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引用次数: 0
Investigation of the use of heat and enzymes instead of the use of NaCl, which creates an environmental problem in the peeling of sesame hulls, and determination of the final product quality 研究在芝麻壳脱皮过程中使用加热和酶来代替造成环境问题的氯化钠,并确定最终产品的质量
Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jssas.2023.09.006
Mehmet Musa Özcan, Ebru Tanrıverdi

The effect of enzyme and different heat treatments on the dehulling of the sesame seed coat were investigated.The amount of crust removed was determined to be 11.23–14.08%for no pre-treatment seed (NPM),seed dipped into boiling water (BW),steam treated seed (ST)and seed kept frozen at −18 °C (FT).While ash contents of sesame seeds change between 2.77% (steam treated sesame seed) and 4.44% (seed peeled using traditional methods), crude protein contents of seeds varied between 20.40% (raw sesame seed) and 24.29%(no-pretreatment).In addition, the oil contents of seeds were determined between 53.85%(raw sesame seed) and 61.83%(no-pretreatment).Also, while oleic acid contents of of seed oils vary between 39.62% (dipped into boiling) and 40.18%(seed peeled using traditional methods),linoleic acid contents of oils ranged from 43.76%(seed peeled using traditional methods) to 44.56%(steam treated). It has been found that the enzyme application is more effective in peeling sesame seed husks than the traditional peel method.

研究了酶和不同热处理方法对芝麻种皮脱壳的影响。未经预处理的种子(NPM)、浸入沸水中的种子(BW)、蒸汽处理的种子(ST)和在-18 °C下冷冻的种子(FT)的脱壳率分别为11.23%-14.08%。芝麻的灰分含量在 2.77% (蒸汽处理的芝麻)和 4.44% (用传统方法去皮的芝麻)之间变化,粗蛋白含量在 20.此外,种子油的油酸含量在 39.62%(浸煮)和 40.18%(传统方法去皮)之间变化,亚油酸含量在 43.76%(传统方法去皮)和 44.56%(蒸汽处理)之间变化。研究发现,与传统的去皮方法相比,使用酶对芝麻壳进行去皮更有效。
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引用次数: 0
Growth morphology of the gastrointestinal tract, pectoralis thoracicus muscle, lymphoid organ and visceral index of kampong chicken 甘榜鸡胃肠道、胸肌、淋巴器官和内脏指数的生长形态
Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jssas.2023.08.005
H.T.S.S.G. Saragih , N. Salsabila , R. Deliaputri , A.B.I. Firdaus , H. Kurnianto

The kampong chicken farming industry has excellent potential to develop in Indonesia. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the growth of kampong chickens in order to obtain an optimal quality of meat and eggs. This research aims to study the growth morphology of the gastrointestinal tract, pectoralis thoracicus muscle, lymphoid organs and visceral index in kampong chickens. In this study, 100 male and female KUB (Kampung Unggul Balitbangtan) chickens were used, which were reared from post-hatching to 63 days of age. Parameters measured were body weight, organ index, body morphometry, and morphology of small intestine, pectoralis thoracicus muscle, and lymphoid organs. Organ histological preparations were made using paraffin methods, Hematoxylin-Eosin (HE), and Periodic Acid Schiff-Alcian Blue (PAS-AB) staining. The results showed that the growth rate of the small intestine and the lymphoid organ peaked at 35 to 49 days of age, while the maximal growth rate of the pectoralis thoracicus muscle occurred at 21 to 35 days and experienced a decrease later at 35 days. The growth index of the viscera started to decrease at 35 days. Body weight reached optimum growth rate at 42 to 45 days of age, while chicken body morphometry continued to increase until 63 days old. The conclusions of the study is that the small intestine, pectoralis thoracicus muscle, and lymphoid organ of kampong chicken experienced rapid growth during 35 to 49 days post-hatch. Therefore, in kampong chicken, the appropriate nutritional management should be increased between day zero and 49 post-hatch.

印尼的甘榜鸡养殖业具有巨大的发展潜力。因此,有必要了解甘榜鸡的生长情况,以获得最佳的肉质和蛋质。本研究旨在研究甘榜鸡胃肠道、胸肌、淋巴器官和内脏指数的生长形态。本研究使用了 100 只雌雄 KUB(Kampung Unggul Balitbangtan)鸡,从孵化后饲养到 63 日龄。测量的参数包括体重、器官指数、体型测量、小肠、胸肌和淋巴器官的形态。器官组织学制备采用石蜡法、苏木精-伊红(HE)和过硫酸希夫-阿尔新蓝(PAS-AB)染色法。结果表明,小肠和淋巴器官的生长速度在 35 至 49 日龄达到高峰,胸肌的最大生长速度出现在 21 至 35 日龄,35 日龄后有所下降。内脏的生长指数在 35 天时开始下降。体重在 42 至 45 日龄达到最佳增长率,而鸡体形态指数在 63 日龄前持续增长。这项研究的结论是,甘榜鸡的小肠、胸肌和淋巴器官在孵化后 35 至 49 天内经历了快速生长。因此,在孵化后第 0 天至第 49 天期间,应适当增加对甘榜鸡的营养管理。
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引用次数: 0
Awareness of pesticides’ residues in food and feed among students of the Faculty of Agriculture, Mutah University, Jordan 约旦穆塔大学农学院学生对食品和饲料中农药残留的认识
Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jssas.2023.05.003
Amani Al-Dawood , Samar Shawaqfeh , Firas Al-Zyoud , Amer Mamkagh , Raed Al-Atiyat , Hanan Hasan

In Jordan, the public is still unaware of the fate and impact of pesticide application. This study aimed to evaluate the attitudes, knowledge and practices of undergraduate students enrolled in various academic departments at the Faculty of Agriculture, Mutah University, Jordan toward pesticides’ residues in food and feed. Students were questioned about their social aspects, and food and feed safety knowledge and resources. Responses have been obtained from 209 responding students. Results indicated that the cross-section through the Faculty of Agriculture, Mutah University, Jordan appears a satisfactory. The findings show that respondents are very highly concerned about human health, food safety, and the risk of environmental pollution, and they have a real desire to reduce the use of pesticides. Respondents had a moderate level of knowledge about food safety, pesticides’ side effects, pesticides’ residues in food or feed, and usage of pesticides in homes and gardens. According to the respondents, the most common way that people are exposed to pesticide residues is by consuming pesticide residues in food. The respondents expressed a moderate level of concern about their attitudes toward organic farming adoption. Correlations between demographic variables and knowledge of food and feed safety, involving a workshop on food/feed safety, care about human health as well as environmental pollution, and looking for information on food/feed safety were reported in the study.

在约旦,公众仍然不知道农药使用的命运和影响。本研究旨在评估约旦穆塔大学农学院各系本科生对食品和饲料中农药残留的态度、知识和行为。学生们被问及他们的社会方面,以及食品和饲料安全知识和资源。已经从209名回应的学生那里获得了回复。结果表明,通过约旦穆塔大学农学院的横断面呈现出令人满意的效果。调查结果显示,受访者对人体健康、食品安全、环境污染风险高度关注,对减少农药使用有切实愿望。受访者对食品安全、农药的副作用、食品或饲料中的农药残留以及家庭和花园中农药的使用有中等程度的了解。据受访者表示,人们接触农药残留最常见的方式是食用食品中的农药残留。受访者对采用有机农业的态度表达了适度的担忧。该研究报告了人口统计变量与食品和饲料安全知识之间的相关性,涉及食品/饲料安全讲习班,关心人类健康和环境污染,以及寻找食品/饲料安全信息。
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引用次数: 2
Forecasting cereal crops production using time series analysis in Ethiopia 利用时间序列分析预测埃塞俄比亚谷类作物产量
Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jssas.2023.07.001
Getachew Bezabih , Melaku Wale , Neela Satheesh , Solomon Workneh Fanta , Minaleshewa Atlabachew

Cereal crops dominate crop production and human diet in Ethiopia. In the present study major cereal crops production data for Ethiopia was analyzed using time-series analysis. Major cereal crops production of years 2000/01 to 2020/21 at national level of private peasant holdings during “Meher” season in Ethiopia was used as input to forecast the cereal crops production up to the year 2020 to 2030. The non-parametric Mann Kendall trend test was used with PAST (Paleontological Statistics Software Package for Education and Data Analysis) software to conduct the trend test. The Box-Jenkins Aautoregressive Integrated Moving Average (or ARIMA) method was put into use to forecast the production. The result shows that grain production had a significant increasing trend. Despite the differences in magnitude, all crops showed an increasing trend in production over the years. Mann-Kendall trend test showed significant trend for all crops. ARIMA and any of the smoothing models were found good in terms of R2 and AIC. Predictions of cereal crops production using ARIMA between 2020 and 2030 years showed increasing trends in all crops. Teff was forecasted from 5.8 tons at the beginning (2020/1) to 7.8 tons at the end of the forecast period (2030). Similarly, maize was forecasted from about 11 to 14, wheat from 6 to 7.5, sorghum from 5 to 7, and barley from 2.3 to 2.7. Increments ranged in between about 20% to 40%.

谷类作物在埃塞俄比亚的作物生产和人类饮食中占主导地位。本研究采用时间序列分析对埃塞俄比亚主要谷类作物的生产数据进行了分析。利用埃塞俄比亚“Meher”季节国家一级私人农民持有的2000/01年至2020/21年主要谷物作物产量作为预测到2020年至2030年谷物作物产量的投入。采用非参数Mann Kendall趋势检验,结合PAST (Paleontological Statistics Software Package for Education and Data Analysis)软件进行趋势检验。采用Box-Jenkins Aautoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)方法进行产量预测。结果表明,粮食产量呈显著增长趋势。尽管在数量上存在差异,但多年来所有作物的产量都呈增加趋势。Mann-Kendall趋势检验表明,所有作物均有显著趋势。ARIMA和任何平滑模型在R2和AIC方面都很好。利用ARIMA对2020年至2030年间谷类作物产量的预测显示,所有作物的产量都有增加的趋势。预计Teff从预测期开始时的5.8吨(2020/1)增加到预测期结束时的7.8吨(2030)。同样,玉米从11到14,小麦从6到7.5,高粱从5到7,大麦从2.3到2.7。增幅在20%到40%之间。
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引用次数: 2
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Journal of the Saudi Society of Agricultural Sciences
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