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The Collapse of Labor Productivity Growth in U.S. Manufacturing after 2010 2010年后美国制造业劳动生产率增长的崩溃
Pub Date : 2018-02-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3121771
R. Schmalensee
Real value-added per employee in U.S. manufacturing fell between 2010 and 2016. Manufacturing accounted for over half the drop in private economy productivity growth between 1990-2000 and 2010-2016, though it accounted for less than 20% of aggregate value-added. While productivity growth fell in almost all three-digit manufacturing industries, almost 40% of the fall in aggregate manufacturing productivity growth reflected a slower decline of the deflator for computers and electronic products. Almost all of this drop seems to have reflected sharp slowdowns in the decline of the deflators for computers and, especially, semiconductors, for which measurement problems seem to have worsened.
2010年至2016年间,美国制造业每位员工的实际增加值有所下降。在1990-2000年和2010-2016年期间,私营经济生产率增长的下降中,制造业占了一半以上,尽管它占总增加值的比例不到20%。虽然几乎所有三位数的制造业的生产率增长都出现了下降,但总体制造业生产率增长下降的近40%反映了计算机和电子产品平减指数下降的放缓。几乎所有这些下降似乎都反映了计算机,尤其是半导体的平减指数下降的急剧放缓,因为它们的测量问题似乎已经恶化。
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引用次数: 4
A New Interpretation of the Economic Complexity Index 经济复杂性指数的新解读
Pub Date : 2018-02-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3075591
P. Mealy, J. Farmer, A. Teytelboym
Analysis of properties of the global trade network has generated new insights into the patterns of economic development across countries. The Economic Complexity Index (ECI), in particular, has been successful at explaining cross-country differences in GDP/capita and economic growth. The ECI aims to infer information about countries’ productive capabilities by making relative comparisons across countries' export baskets. However, there has been some confusion about how the ECI works: previous studies compared the ECI to the number of exports that a country has revealed comparative advantage in (`diversity') and to eigenvector centrality. We show that the ECI is, in fact, equivalent to a spectral clustering algorithm, which partitions a similarity graph into two parts. When applied to country-export data, the ECI represents a ranking of countries that places countries with similar exports close together in the ordering. More generally, the ECI is a dimension reduction tool, which gives the optimal one-dimensional ordering that minimizes the distance between nodes in a similarity graph. We discuss this new interpretation of the ECI with reference to the economic development literature. Finally, we illustrate stark differences between the ECI and diversity with two empirical examples based on regional data.
对全球贸易网络特性的分析使我们对各国经济发展模式有了新的认识。经济复杂性指数(ECI)尤其成功地解释了国内生产总值/人均和经济增长的跨国差异。ECI旨在通过对各国出口篮子进行相对比较,推断有关各国生产能力的信息。然而,对于ECI的工作方式存在一些困惑:以前的研究将ECI与一个国家在(“多样性”)方面显示出比较优势的出口数量和特征向量中心性进行了比较。我们表明,ECI实际上相当于一个谱聚类算法,它将相似图分成两部分。当应用于国家出口数据时,ECI代表了一个国家的排名,将出口相似的国家按顺序排列在一起。更一般地说,ECI是一种降维工具,它给出了最小化相似图中节点之间距离的最佳一维排序。我们将参考经济发展文献来讨论ECI的这种新解释。最后,我们用两个基于区域数据的实证例子说明了ECI和多样性之间的明显差异。
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引用次数: 25
Income Inequality in France, 1900-2014: Evidence from Distributional National Accounts (DINA) 1900-2014年法国收入不平等:来自国民分配账户(DINA)的证据
Pub Date : 2018-01-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3165058
Bertrand Garbinti, Jonathan Goupille-Lebret, T. Piketty
We combine national accounts, tax and survey data in a comprehensive and consistent manner for France, to build homogenous annual series on the distribution of national income by percentiles, from 1900 to 2014, with detailed breakdown by age, gender and income categories over the 1970-2014 period. Our new series deliver higher inequality levels for the recent decades, because the usual tax-based series miss a rising part of capital income. Growth incidence curves look dramatically different for the 1950-1983 and 1983-2014 periods. We also show that it has become increasingly difficult to access top wealth groups with labor income only. Next, gender inequality in labor income declined in recent decades, albeit fairly slowly among top labor incomes. Finally, we compare the evolution of income inequality between France and the U.S.
我们以全面和一致的方式结合法国的国民账户、税收和调查数据,建立1900年至2014年国民收入按百分位数分布的同质年度系列,并在1970年至2014年期间按年龄、性别和收入类别进行详细分类。我们的新系列显示了近几十年来更高的不平等程度,因为通常的基于税收的系列忽略了资本收入中不断上升的部分。1950-1983年和1983-2014年期间的增长发生率曲线明显不同。我们还表明,仅凭劳动收入进入顶级财富群体变得越来越困难。其次,近几十年来,劳动收入的性别不平等程度有所下降,尽管在高收入劳动人群中下降得相当缓慢。最后,我们比较了法国和美国收入不平等的演变
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引用次数: 125
GDP Competition and Investment Allocation: Evidence from China GDP竞争与投资配置:来自中国的证据
Pub Date : 2017-11-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3074290
Qiang Liu, Ying Hao, Jing Lu, Yong Du
This study examines how macroeconomic performance competition is related to the investment allocation at firm level. We use different GDP competitions as proxies of dynamic macroeconomic condition. We find that the effect of GDP competition on fixed assets investment is significantly positive. Further, we find that adjacent-wide GDP competition is associated with more M&As and nationwide GDP competition is associated with less R&D investment in the high group of fixed assets investment. We also show that GDP competition contributes to increase overinvestment and lower underinvestment, and the GDP competition is more likely to affect the investment allocations of SOEs (State Owned Enterprises). Especially, our analyses find that the probability of promotion is lower for those provincial leaders driving firms to take more M&As to promote economic growth than investing heavily in fixed assets. We use alternative proxies to measure GDP competition and find similar results that support our inference. Our findings support the notion that GDP competition of governments distorts investment behavior and contributes to discovering and elucidating investment problems and dilemma faced by emerging economy.
本研究探讨宏观经济绩效竞争与企业投资配置的关系。我们使用不同的GDP竞争作为动态宏观经济状况的代理。我们发现GDP竞争对固定资产投资的影响显著为正。此外,我们发现邻接地区的GDP竞争与更多的并购相关,而在固定资产投资高的地区,全国的GDP竞争与较少的研发投资相关。GDP竞争有助于增加过度投资和减少投资不足,并且GDP竞争更有可能影响国有企业的投资配置。特别是,我们的分析发现,省级领导推动企业进行更多的并购以促进经济增长的概率低于大量投资固定资产。我们使用替代代理来衡量GDP竞争,并发现类似的结果支持我们的推断。我们的研究结果支持了政府GDP竞争扭曲投资行为的观点,有助于发现和阐明新兴经济体面临的投资问题和困境。
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引用次数: 0
Von Brüssel Bis Berlin. Ein Kritischer Blick Auf Die Deutschen Leistungsbilanzüberschüsse (From Brussels to Berlin: A Critical Look at the German Current Account Surpluses) 从布鲁塞尔到柏林。布鲁塞尔对德国经常项目盈余的批评
Pub Date : 2017-10-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3102117
Detlev Ehrig
German Abstract: Deutschland verfügt über einen der weltweit höchsten Leistungsbilanzüberschüsse, gemessen am Bruttoinlandsprodukt. Damit zieht es massive Kritik seiner Handelspartner auf sich. Vom amerikani-schen Präsidenten Trump, über den Internationalen Währungsfonds bis hin zur Europäischen Kommission reichen die Vorwürfe, Deutschland gefährde mit seinen andauernden Leistungsbilanzüberschüssen die Stabilität des internationalen Handels. Das vorliegende Papier greift die kritischen internationalen Positionen auf und diskutiert mögliche Ursachen des Leistungsbilanzungleichgewichts. Schwerpunkt ist eine Auseinandersetzung mit dem Argument der Überersparnis (savings glut) als Ausdruck einer reifen Volkswirtschaft. Im Weiteren geht es um Wege zur Erhöhung der Konsumnachfrage und einer Ausweitung privater und staatlicher Investitionen. Als ein möglicher Schritt zu einer nachhaltigen Korrektur der Leistungsbilanzüberschüsse wird die Abschaffung der europäischen Schuldenbremse erörtert, die sich zugleich als eine Leistungsbilanzbremse erweisen kann. English Abstract: Germany has one of the highest current account surpluses in the world. This is criticised by its global trading partners and is subject to the European Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure as well as to the IMF and the new us-government. However, this phenomenon is interpreted quite disparately. The paper argues that periods of weak domestic demand and a saving surplus over investment has left lasting traces. How could Germany find out ways to increase domestic demand, especially its public and private investment, to reduce its surplus? Political actions should focus directly on the distortions and misallocations that potentially result from an imbalance. The article discusses Bernanke’s thesis of savings glut in mature economies. As a political consequence, this means turning away from the politics of European debt limits and installing a limit on balance on current account.
德国抽象:根据其国内生产总值计算,德国拥有全世界最高的经常项目盈余之一。它有大量的贸易伙伴批评它。从美国总统特朗普到国际货币基金组织(imf)到欧盟委员会,都有关于德国经常项目盈余危害国际贸易稳定的指控。本页探讨了重要的国际立场,并讨论了经常帐户不平衡的可能原因。另外,专家们还指出,储蓄过剩是发达经济体表现出来的另一种观点。而后者则包括如何提振消费需求以及促进私人和政府投资。废除有可能同时成为经常项目盈余拖累的欧洲债务拖累将是迈向可持续纠正经常项目盈余的可能措施之一。英语抽象:德国已经有了一个全世界最伟大的记录。欧洲宏观经济不平衡论及美国新型政府。However,这家伙真作恶生物燃料燃料燃烧的记录德国有什么办法来偿还呢?政治行动的焦点在于产生于不同的力量伯南克的炮人安息人两位政客的政治一致,是欧洲限定界政治的沉闷和婚姻上限
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引用次数: 0
The New Macroeconomics of Consumer Surplus 消费者剩余的新宏观经济学
Pub Date : 2017-09-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3042915
Ilya Talman, Xiao Qiao, S. Rubinow, M. Lippitz, Peter Evangelakis
The standard way to measure economic growth in an economy is through increases in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However, because prices for digital products and services have been rapidly falling for years, the rapid growth of the digital economy is not well-captured by GDP. In this paper, we review recent efforts to measure the digital economy through Consumer Surplus (CS) and present a framework for measuring the growth of CS as a percentage of economy, along with three examples. We argue that a better way to account for progress in economy would be to combine GDP with CS.
衡量一个经济体经济增长的标准方法是通过国内生产总值(GDP)的增长。然而,由于数字产品和服务的价格多年来一直在迅速下降,数字经济的快速增长并没有很好地反映在GDP中。在本文中,我们回顾了最近通过消费者剩余(CS)来衡量数字经济的努力,并提出了一个衡量CS占经济增长百分比的框架,以及三个例子。我们认为一个更好的解释经济进步的方法是将GDP与CS结合起来。
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引用次数: 1
Weighing the Significance of World War I for the Australian Economy 第一次世界大战对澳大利亚经济的影响
Pub Date : 2017-07-01 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8462.12224
W. Coleman
The article argues there is little evidence that World War I quickened the currents of structural change in the Australian economy. It suggests instead that the War was reinforcing of the Deakinite model of economic management that already been established by the outbreak of War. It did so by enlarging the tenet of ‘protection plus imperial preference’ that had been inscribed in the pre-War policy consensus; by strengthening the revenue and power of the central state basic to the Deakinite framework of economic governance; and by assimilating rural interests into the terms of that framework.
文章认为,几乎没有证据表明第一次世界大战加速了澳大利亚经济的结构性变化。相反,它表明,战争加强了因战争爆发而已经建立起来的迪肯尼经济管理模式。它通过扩大"保护加帝国优惠"的原则来实现这一目标这一原则已被写入战前的政策共识;加强中央政府的收入和权力,这是民主党经济治理框架的基础;通过将农村利益融入到这个框架中。
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引用次数: 0
Cash Flows and National Accounts (Need New Satellite Account) 现金流量和国民账户(需要新的附属账户)
Pub Date : 2017-06-19 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2988817
Metodi Hristov
The questions related to cash flows deserve greater attention than the one devoted on this subject nowadays. The reasons for such a conclusion are at least two circumstances. On the one hand this is their complexity, but on the other - the fact that they are an integral part of any micro- and macro-economic activity. Studies show that these questions have long engaged for both theoreticians and practitioners. Today they are again relevant. The need for their resolution is even higher in today’s turbulent economic development. For this purpose, however, it is necessary to find a reliable tool for the presentation of cash flows. Expectations that this is possible by the information contained in more widely used national accounts (Generalised System of National Accounts - SNA 2008 and the European System of National Accounts - ESA 2010) found no practical application. This is due to the fact that there is not reliable definition nor reliable coverage of cash flows. It is obvious that in this situation there is a need to create another satellite account to the national accounts to cover this gap. This is the main objective of the proposed material. In its first part issues about the definition and presentation of cash flows in the national accounts are discussed. The second part is dedicated to the opportunities to establish new satellite account to the national accounts for cash flows. The content of the third part is about ideas how to use the new satellite account.
与现金流量有关的问题值得比目前对这一主题的关注更多。得出这一结论的原因至少有两个方面。一方面,这是它们的复杂性,但另一方面,它们是任何微观和宏观经济活动的组成部分。研究表明,这些问题长期以来一直困扰着理论家和实践者。今天,它们又有了意义。在当今动荡的经济发展中,解决这些问题的必要性甚至更高。然而,为此目的,有必要找到一种可靠的工具来列报现金流量。人们期望这可以通过更广泛使用的国民账户(国民账户通用系统- SNA 2008和欧洲国民账户系统- ESA 2010)中包含的信息来实现,但没有实际应用。这是因为现金流量没有可靠的定义,也没有可靠的覆盖范围。显然,在这种情况下,有必要为国民核算设立另一个附属帐户,以弥补这一缺口。这是拟议材料的主要目的。第一部分讨论了国民经济核算中现金流量的定义和表示问题。第二部分专门讨论为现金流量的国民账户建立新的附属账户的机会。第三部分的内容是关于如何使用新卫星账号的思路。
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引用次数: 0
Authority and Incentives in Organizations 组织中的权威和激励
Pub Date : 2017-04-01 DOI: 10.1111/sjoe.12172
M. Kräkel
The paper analyzes how the choice of organizational structure leads to the best compromise between controlling behavior based on authority rights and minimizing costs for implementing high efforts. Concentrated delegation and hierarchical delegation turn out to be never an optimal compromise. If the CEO is more efficient than the division heads (i.e., the CEO's costs from exerting high effort are smaller than those of the division heads), the owner will prefer full delegation to the divisions to replace high incentive pay to the division heads by incentives based on private benefits of control. In that situation, decentralization is the optimal form of full delegation given that selfish behavior is more important than cooperation, but cross-authority delegation is optimal for cooperation being crucial. If, however, the division heads are clearly more efficient than the CEO, the owner will choose centralization given that cooperation is the dominating issue, but partial delegation if selfish behavior is crucial.
本文分析了组织结构的选择如何导致基于权威权利的控制行为与实现高努力的成本最小化之间的最佳折衷。事实证明,集中式授权和分层授权从来都不是最优的折衷方案。如果CEO的效率高于部门主管(即CEO付出的高努力成本小于部门主管),那么所有者将更倾向于完全授权给部门,以基于私人控制利益的激励来取代对部门主管的高激励性薪酬。在这种情况下,考虑到自私行为比合作更重要,去中心化是充分授权的最佳形式,但在合作至关重要的情况下,跨权限授权是最优的。然而,如果部门主管明显比首席执行官更有效率,则考虑到合作是主要问题,所有者将选择集中化,但如果自私行为至关重要,则所有者将选择部分授权。
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引用次数: 4
Electoral Thresholds as Coordination Devices 选举门槛作为协调手段
Pub Date : 2017-04-01 DOI: 10.1111/sjoe.12175
Matías Núñez, Dimitrios Xefteris
In this paper, we study one‐person–one‐vote parliamentary elections where voters care both about the winner of elections and about the composition of the parliament. Parties enter the parliament if and only if their vote share exceeds some predetermined threshold. We show that equilibria generically exist in which all parties obtain a non‐degenerate vote‐share and, perhaps more importantly, we show that the size of the electoral threshold acts as a coordination device, which crucially affects the win prospects of the Condorcet winner party. In particular, we argue that the win prospects of the Condorcet winner party decrease with the size of the entry threshold.
在本文中,我们研究一人一票的议会选举,其中选民既关心选举的获胜者,也关心议会的组成。政党进入议会当且仅当他们的投票份额超过某个预定的门槛。我们证明了均衡是普遍存在的,在这种均衡中,所有政党都获得了非退化的投票份额,也许更重要的是,我们证明了选举门槛的大小作为一种协调手段,它对孔多塞获胜政党的获胜前景产生了至关重要的影响。特别是,我们认为孔多塞赢家一方的获胜前景随着进入门槛的大小而降低。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal
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