The standard view suggests that removing barriers to entry and improving judicial enforcement reduces informality and boosts investment and growth. However, a general equilibrium approach shows that this conclusion may hold to a lesser extent in countries with a constrained supply of funds because of, for example, a more concentrated banking sector or lower financial openness. When the formal sector grows larger in those countries, more entrepreneurs become creditworthy, but the higher pressure on the credit market limits further capital accumulation. We show empirical evidence consistent with these predictions.
{"title":"Informal Sector and Economic Development: The Credit Supply Channel","authors":"Baptiste Massenot, S. Straub","doi":"10.1111/ecin.12301","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12301","url":null,"abstract":"The standard view suggests that removing barriers to entry and improving judicial enforcement reduces informality and boosts investment and growth. However, a general equilibrium approach shows that this conclusion may hold to a lesser extent in countries with a constrained supply of funds because of, for example, a more concentrated banking sector or lower financial openness. When the formal sector grows larger in those countries, more entrepreneurs become creditworthy, but the higher pressure on the credit market limits further capital accumulation. We show empirical evidence consistent with these predictions.","PeriodicalId":18164,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal","volume":"139 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78531486","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper clarifies many misunderstandings around national account. When GDP measures both output revenue and input spending, it commits the double counting mistake. Though both GDP and NI are measuring mostly spending, they contain completely different, non-overlapping, entries. This paper re-organizes their appropriate items into a new measure, gross domestic spending or GDsP. It also shows that the traditional measures treat all spending with 100% depreciation, and that some less-than-100% depreciation rates reduce the size of measure. If all depreciation were deducted from GDsP, there would be nothing left for NI. Spending is not income.
{"title":"Reconsidering National Accounting and Depreciation","authors":"Hak Choi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2597504","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2597504","url":null,"abstract":"This paper clarifies many misunderstandings around national account. When GDP measures both output revenue and input spending, it commits the double counting mistake. Though both GDP and NI are measuring mostly spending, they contain completely different, non-overlapping, entries. This paper re-organizes their appropriate items into a new measure, gross domestic spending or GDsP. It also shows that the traditional measures treat all spending with 100% depreciation, and that some less-than-100% depreciation rates reduce the size of measure. If all depreciation were deducted from GDsP, there would be nothing left for NI. Spending is not income.","PeriodicalId":18164,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal","volume":"34 8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80087123","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The economic and social mobility of a generation may be largely determined by the time it enters school given early developing and persistent gaps in child achievement by family income and the importance of adolescent skill levels for educational attainment and lifetime earnings. After providing new evidence of important differences in early child investments by family income, we study four leading mechanisms thought to explain these gaps: an intergenerational correlation in ability, a consumption value of investment, information frictions, and credit constraints. In order to better determine which of these mechanisms influence family investments in children, we evaluate the extent to which these mechanisms also explain other important stylized facts related to the marginal returns on investments and the effects of parental income on child investments and skills.
{"title":"Correlation, Consumption, Confusion, or Constraints: Why Do Poor Children Perform so Poorly?","authors":"Elizabeth M. Caucutt, L. Lochner, Youngmin Park","doi":"10.1111/sjoe.12195","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12195","url":null,"abstract":"The economic and social mobility of a generation may be largely determined by the time it enters school given early developing and persistent gaps in child achievement by family income and the importance of adolescent skill levels for educational attainment and lifetime earnings. After providing new evidence of important differences in early child investments by family income, we study four leading mechanisms thought to explain these gaps: an intergenerational correlation in ability, a consumption value of investment, information frictions, and credit constraints. In order to better determine which of these mechanisms influence family investments in children, we evaluate the extent to which these mechanisms also explain other important stylized facts related to the marginal returns on investments and the effects of parental income on child investments and skills.","PeriodicalId":18164,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal","volume":"39 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88665963","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
As part of our participation in the December 2014 meeting of the Federal Committee on Statistical Methodology, Journalist’s Resource at Harvard’s Shorenstein Center on Media, Politics and Public Policy authored recommendations to help the principal federal statistical agencies communicate better with media and, by extension, interested citizens. A variety of ideas were generated through website analysis, testing and conversations with journalists and experts. Agencies could substantially increase their potential audience by designing more for the “broad middle” of Web users, who may not be familiar with the federal statistics landscape. Proposed ideas are as follows:1) Media-communications recommendations: Hold regular workshops with journalists of all kinds, particularly non-specialists; when journalists need help with data, provide access to expert government officials; and regularly offer media organizations the chance to articulate their needs for original data collection. 2) Data content- and presentation-related recommendations: Rethink what agencies collect with a more “citizen-centric” approach; find data that speak to the technology revolution and related changes; stay relevant and current on the Web, repurposing materials as news trends emerge and emphasizing shorter “quick hits” from large datasets and reports; and feature salient data points in large reports and design visualizations for news sites. 3) Technical and website recommendations: Consider a more standardized Web user interface (UI) across agencies — and responsive design; build an intuitive, app-like version of each site for more general users; design for better site search and search engine optimization; be clear about the quality of data; strengthen user information and metadata; offer many data formats and consider use cases and accessibility; and create more Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) that are tailored to the needs of news and information companies.
{"title":"Making Federal Data More Useful and Accessible to Fuel Media and Democracy: A Report for the Federal Committee on Statistical Methodology","authors":"John Wihbey","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2567932","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2567932","url":null,"abstract":"As part of our participation in the December 2014 meeting of the Federal Committee on Statistical Methodology, Journalist’s Resource at Harvard’s Shorenstein Center on Media, Politics and Public Policy authored recommendations to help the principal federal statistical agencies communicate better with media and, by extension, interested citizens. A variety of ideas were generated through website analysis, testing and conversations with journalists and experts. Agencies could substantially increase their potential audience by designing more for the “broad middle” of Web users, who may not be familiar with the federal statistics landscape. Proposed ideas are as follows:1) Media-communications recommendations: Hold regular workshops with journalists of all kinds, particularly non-specialists; when journalists need help with data, provide access to expert government officials; and regularly offer media organizations the chance to articulate their needs for original data collection. 2) Data content- and presentation-related recommendations: Rethink what agencies collect with a more “citizen-centric” approach; find data that speak to the technology revolution and related changes; stay relevant and current on the Web, repurposing materials as news trends emerge and emphasizing shorter “quick hits” from large datasets and reports; and feature salient data points in large reports and design visualizations for news sites. 3) Technical and website recommendations: Consider a more standardized Web user interface (UI) across agencies — and responsive design; build an intuitive, app-like version of each site for more general users; design for better site search and search engine optimization; be clear about the quality of data; strengthen user information and metadata; offer many data formats and consider use cases and accessibility; and create more Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) that are tailored to the needs of news and information companies.","PeriodicalId":18164,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal","volume":"53 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86414898","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
R. Anderton, Ted N. Aranki, Boele Bonthuis, Valerie Jarvis
This paper examines the usefulness of the Okun relationship as a JEL Classification: E2, E24, C23
本文考察了Okun关系作为JEL分类的有效性:E2, E24, C23
{"title":"Disaggregating Okun's Law: Decomposing the Impact of the Expenditure Components of GDP on Euro Area Unemployment","authors":"R. Anderton, Ted N. Aranki, Boele Bonthuis, Valerie Jarvis","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2533387","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2533387","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the usefulness of the Okun relationship as a JEL Classification: E2, E24, C23","PeriodicalId":18164,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88487940","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) will be presented as tools that have specific features for studying the socio-economic activity of countries. Such features allow for the reading and interpretation of the reality under study, leading to the production of an empirical work that is not only capable of highlighting specific aspects of that activity, but also offers the chance to experiment with different interventions in regard to its functioning. In stating that the knowledge of the socio-economic activity of countries involves the use of national accounts, emphasis is placed on the desirability of working in a matrix format, which simultaneously includes activities (or industries), products, factors of production and institutions. This will be considered to be a way of capturing the relevant network of linkages and the corresponding multiplier effects in the subsequent modelling of the socio-economic activity of the countries studied.A methodological framework based on the works of R. Stone, G. Pyatt and J. Round, will be adopted outlining the main features of the SAM-based approach, according to which the SAM can describe the activity of countries either empirically or theoretically, depending on whether it is presented in a numerical or an algebraic version, respectively.Based on the latest version of the System of National Accounts (2008 SNA), a proposal for a numerical version of a SAM will be presented. Firstly, a basic structure will be presented and the need to ensure its consistency with the whole system will be emphasized. Such emphasis will then be reinforced through the analysis of possible disaggregations and extensions to that basic structure. The different forms of analysis made possible by the use of aggregates, indicators and balancing items that can be calculated from such a version and which lie outside the matrix format will also be discussed. Because any socio-economic study made of a specific space, namely, a country, should involve the consideration of its population, Socio-Demographic Matrices (SDMs) will also be briefly presented and two examples of approaches based on SAMs and SDMs will be sketched out.The exposition will be illustrated with an application to Portugal.
{"title":"Approach to the Socio-Economic Activity of Countries with a Social Accounting Matrices Supported by Socio-Demographic Matrices: An Application to Portugal","authors":"S. Santos","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2530735","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2530735","url":null,"abstract":"Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) will be presented as tools that have specific features for studying the socio-economic activity of countries. Such features allow for the reading and interpretation of the reality under study, leading to the production of an empirical work that is not only capable of highlighting specific aspects of that activity, but also offers the chance to experiment with different interventions in regard to its functioning. In stating that the knowledge of the socio-economic activity of countries involves the use of national accounts, emphasis is placed on the desirability of working in a matrix format, which simultaneously includes activities (or industries), products, factors of production and institutions. This will be considered to be a way of capturing the relevant network of linkages and the corresponding multiplier effects in the subsequent modelling of the socio-economic activity of the countries studied.A methodological framework based on the works of R. Stone, G. Pyatt and J. Round, will be adopted outlining the main features of the SAM-based approach, according to which the SAM can describe the activity of countries either empirically or theoretically, depending on whether it is presented in a numerical or an algebraic version, respectively.Based on the latest version of the System of National Accounts (2008 SNA), a proposal for a numerical version of a SAM will be presented. Firstly, a basic structure will be presented and the need to ensure its consistency with the whole system will be emphasized. Such emphasis will then be reinforced through the analysis of possible disaggregations and extensions to that basic structure. The different forms of analysis made possible by the use of aggregates, indicators and balancing items that can be calculated from such a version and which lie outside the matrix format will also be discussed. Because any socio-economic study made of a specific space, namely, a country, should involve the consideration of its population, Socio-Demographic Matrices (SDMs) will also be briefly presented and two examples of approaches based on SAMs and SDMs will be sketched out.The exposition will be illustrated with an application to Portugal.","PeriodicalId":18164,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal","volume":"28 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74895302","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Spanish Abstract: La medicion de la variable emblematica del Sistema de Cuentas Nacionales constituye un reto estadistico formidable. En el documento se reflexiona en torno a lo que significa la propia variable teniendo presente, como telon de fondo, a la Ciencia Economica. Para entender las caracteristicas de la estimacion del producto interno bruto en primer lugar se presenta una minima historiografia; en segundo, se comparan las recomendaciones internacionales y la practica cotidiana del INEGI y de otros Institutos de Estadistica; en tercero, se reconocen los errores y sesgos potenciales de cualquier medicion estadistica; y en cuarto, se aborda la economia politica de su medicion. Verdaderamente la elaboracion del Sistema de Cuentas Nacionales por parte de nuestro Instituto de Estadistica representa un “tour de force”, o como afirma Frits Bos, un milagro. English Abstract: The measurement of the emblematic variable of the National Accounts System represents a formidable challenge for any Statistical Office. We analyze the full meaning of the GDP taking as a backdrop the Economics Science. In order to understand the complex process of GDP’s estimation as a first step we take a historical perspective. In the second step, we compare the international recommendations and the practical approach used by the INEGI, among others Statistical Offices. In the third and fourth steps, we show errors and potential biases linked with any statistical measure, and we introduce a political economy of measurement perspective, respectively. Indeed, compilations of the National Accounts constitute a “tour de force”, or a miracle according to Frits Bos.
{"title":"En torno a la medición del Producto Interno Bruto (Measurement of GDP for Dummies)","authors":"Carlos Guerrero-de-Lizardi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2484599","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2484599","url":null,"abstract":"Spanish Abstract: La medicion de la variable emblematica del Sistema de Cuentas Nacionales constituye un reto estadistico formidable. En el documento se reflexiona en torno a lo que significa la propia variable teniendo presente, como telon de fondo, a la Ciencia Economica. Para entender las caracteristicas de la estimacion del producto interno bruto en primer lugar se presenta una minima historiografia; en segundo, se comparan las recomendaciones internacionales y la practica cotidiana del INEGI y de otros Institutos de Estadistica; en tercero, se reconocen los errores y sesgos potenciales de cualquier medicion estadistica; y en cuarto, se aborda la economia politica de su medicion. Verdaderamente la elaboracion del Sistema de Cuentas Nacionales por parte de nuestro Instituto de Estadistica representa un “tour de force”, o como afirma Frits Bos, un milagro. English Abstract: The measurement of the emblematic variable of the National Accounts System represents a formidable challenge for any Statistical Office. We analyze the full meaning of the GDP taking as a backdrop the Economics Science. In order to understand the complex process of GDP’s estimation as a first step we take a historical perspective. In the second step, we compare the international recommendations and the practical approach used by the INEGI, among others Statistical Offices. In the third and fourth steps, we show errors and potential biases linked with any statistical measure, and we introduce a political economy of measurement perspective, respectively. Indeed, compilations of the National Accounts constitute a “tour de force”, or a miracle according to Frits Bos.","PeriodicalId":18164,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74442060","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The average of periodic growth rates is a downwardly biased estimator of the rate of growth of a country. The higher the variance of the periodical growth rates, the higher the downward bias. The longer the business cycle, the higher the downward bias. In this short paper, we demonstrate these facts on a number of different levels, from intuitive to quite technical. We suggest that the variability of growth rates be taken into account whenever a long term forecast is prepared.
{"title":"Accounting for Variability in the Growth Rate of Income","authors":"P. Lambert, S. Yitzhaki","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2472889","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2472889","url":null,"abstract":"The average of periodic growth rates is a downwardly biased estimator of the rate of growth of a country. The higher the variance of the periodical growth rates, the higher the downward bias. The longer the business cycle, the higher the downward bias. In this short paper, we demonstrate these facts on a number of different levels, from intuitive to quite technical. We suggest that the variability of growth rates be taken into account whenever a long term forecast is prepared.","PeriodicalId":18164,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88865833","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Decio Coviello, L. Moretti, G. Spagnolo, P. Valbonesi
Disputes over penalties for breaching a contract are often resolved in court. A simple model illustrates how inefficient courts can sway public buyers from enforcing a penalty for late delivery in order to avoid litigation, therefore inducing sellers to delay contract delivery. By using a large dataset on Italian public procurement, we empirically study the effects of court inefficiency on public work performance. We find that where courts are inefficient: i) public works are delivered with longer delays; ii) delays increase for more valuable contracts; iii) contracts are more often awarded to larger suppliers; and iv) a higher share of the payment is postponed after delivery. Other interpretations receive less support from the data.
{"title":"Court Efficiency and Procurement Performance","authors":"Decio Coviello, L. Moretti, G. Spagnolo, P. Valbonesi","doi":"10.1111/sjoe.12225","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12225","url":null,"abstract":"Disputes over penalties for breaching a contract are often resolved in court. A simple model illustrates how inefficient courts can sway public buyers from enforcing a penalty for late delivery in order to avoid litigation, therefore inducing sellers to delay contract delivery. By using a large dataset on Italian public procurement, we empirically study the effects of court inefficiency on public work performance. We find that where courts are inefficient: i) public works are delivered with longer delays; ii) delays increase for more valuable contracts; iii) contracts are more often awarded to larger suppliers; and iv) a higher share of the payment is postponed after delivery. Other interpretations receive less support from the data.","PeriodicalId":18164,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal","volume":"72 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87701198","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Since the 1998 “wind of falsification and embellishment,” Chinese official statistics on gross domestic product (GDP) have repeatedly come under scrutiny. This paper evaluates the quality of China's GDP statistics in four stages. First, it reviews past and ongoing suspicions of the quality of GDP data and examines the evidence. Second, it documents the institutional framework for data compilation and concludes on the implications for data quality. Third, it asks how the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics could possibly go about credibly falsifying GDP data without being found out. Fourth, it examines if the first- and second-digit distributions of official GDP data conform to established data regularities (Benford's Law). The findings are that the supposed evidence for GDP data falsification is not compelling, that the National Bureau of Statistics has much institutional scope for falsifying GDP data, and that certain manipulations of nominal and real data would be virtually undetectable. Official GDP data, however, exhibit few statistical anomalies (conform to Benford's Law) and the National Bureau of Statistics thus either makes no significant use of its scope to falsify data, or is aware of statistical data regularities when it falsifies data.
自1998年“弄虚作假之风”以来，中国国内生产总值(GDP)的官方统计数据一再受到审查。本文分四个阶段对中国GDP统计质量进行了评价。首先，它回顾了过去和现在对GDP数据质量的怀疑，并审查了证据。其次，它记录了数据汇编的制度框架，并总结了对数据质量的影响。第三，它质疑中国国家统计局(National Bureau of Statistics)如何能够在不被发现的情况下可信地伪造GDP数据。第四，检验官方GDP数据的一位数和二位数分布是否符合既定的数据规律(本福德定律)。研究发现，所谓的GDP数据造假证据并不令人信服，国家统计局(National Bureau of Statistics)在伪造GDP数据方面有很大的机构空间，而且对名义和实际数据的某些操纵几乎无法被发现。然而，官方GDP数据几乎没有统计异常(符合本福德定律)，因此国家统计局要么没有充分利用其范围伪造数据，要么在伪造数据时意识到统计数据的规律。
{"title":"The Quality of China's GDP Statistics","authors":"Carsten A. Holz","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2362779","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2362779","url":null,"abstract":"Since the 1998 “wind of falsification and embellishment,” Chinese official statistics on gross domestic product (GDP) have repeatedly come under scrutiny. This paper evaluates the quality of China's GDP statistics in four stages. First, it reviews past and ongoing suspicions of the quality of GDP data and examines the evidence. Second, it documents the institutional framework for data compilation and concludes on the implications for data quality. Third, it asks how the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics could possibly go about credibly falsifying GDP data without being found out. Fourth, it examines if the first- and second-digit distributions of official GDP data conform to established data regularities (Benford's Law). The findings are that the supposed evidence for GDP data falsification is not compelling, that the National Bureau of Statistics has much institutional scope for falsifying GDP data, and that certain manipulations of nominal and real data would be virtually undetectable. Official GDP data, however, exhibit few statistical anomalies (conform to Benford's Law) and the National Bureau of Statistics thus either makes no significant use of its scope to falsify data, or is aware of statistical data regularities when it falsifies data.","PeriodicalId":18164,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83680641","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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