In January–October 2013, business activities were determined by a decrease in the consumer and investment demand. A drop of 1.2% in investments in capital assets and stagnation in manufacturing industries as compared to January–October 2012 had a negative effect on the domestic market. A factor which supported the GDP dynamics at the level of 101.4% against January–February 2012 was growth of 5.3% in the agricultural output as compared to the respective period of the previous year. From June 2013, growth in the total number of the unemployed year-on-year was registered; it is to be noted that in October growth in the unemployment sped up and its level (in accordance with the ILO methods) amounted to 5.5% of the gainfully occupied population with 5.2% on average in the 3rd quarter of 2013. A drop in the demand in the workforce resulted in a reduction of the number of vacant jobs declared by the employment service from 2.1m vacant jobs in May to 1.6m in October 2013.
{"title":"Russia’s Real Sector of Economy: Factors and Trends In January-September 2013","authors":"O. Izryadnova","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2359364","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2359364","url":null,"abstract":"In January–October 2013, business activities were determined by a decrease in the consumer and investment demand. A drop of 1.2% in investments in capital assets and stagnation in manufacturing industries as compared to January–October 2012 had a negative effect on the domestic market. A factor which supported the GDP dynamics at the level of 101.4% against January–February 2012 was growth of 5.3% in the agricultural output as compared to the respective period of the previous year. From June 2013, growth in the total number of the unemployed year-on-year was registered; it is to be noted that in October growth in the unemployment sped up and its level (in accordance with the ILO methods) amounted to 5.5% of the gainfully occupied population with 5.2% on average in the 3rd quarter of 2013. A drop in the demand in the workforce resulted in a reduction of the number of vacant jobs declared by the employment service from 2.1m vacant jobs in May to 1.6m in October 2013.","PeriodicalId":18164,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal","volume":"32 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91022454","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The results of decomposition of output growth rates demonstrate that in the period of 2012 – the first half year of 2013 the rate of GDP growth was predominantly influenced by the inputs provided by the main production factors. Labor and capital inputs, on the average, determine 80% of the rate of GDP growth; in other words, at present the Russian economy’s growth is achieved in the main due to the effect of extensive factors. At the same time, labor and capital inputs display a declining growth rate.
{"title":"Economic Growth Factors in 2010-The First Half of 2011","authors":"Ekaterina Astafieva","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2337513","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2337513","url":null,"abstract":"The results of decomposition of output growth rates demonstrate that in the period of 2012 – the first half year of 2013 the rate of GDP growth was predominantly influenced by the inputs provided by the main production factors. Labor and capital inputs, on the average, determine 80% of the rate of GDP growth; in other words, at present the Russian economy’s growth is achieved in the main due to the effect of extensive factors. At the same time, labor and capital inputs display a declining growth rate.","PeriodicalId":18164,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal","volume":" 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-10-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91414009","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A four-pronged approach to dealing with Social Science Phenomenon is outlined. This methodology is applied to Financial Services, Economic Growth and Well-Being. The four prongs are like the four directions for an army general looking for victory. Just like the four directions, we need to be aware that there is a degree of interconnectedness in the below four prongs. -Uncertainty Principle of the Social Sciences -Responsibilities of Fiscal Janitors -Need for Smaller Organizations -Redirecting Growth that Generates Garbage The importance of gaining a more profound comprehension of welfare and delineating its components into those that result from an increase in goods and services, and hence can be attributed to economic growth, and into those that are not related to economic growth but lead to a better quality of life, is highlighted. The reasoning being that economic growth alone is an inadequate indicator of well-being. Hand in hand with a better understanding of the characteristics of welfare, comes the need to consider the metrics we currently have that gauge economic growth and supplement those with measures that capture well-being more holistically.
{"title":"Financial Services, Economic Growth and Well-Being: A Four-Pronged Study","authors":"R. Kashyap","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2431082","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2431082","url":null,"abstract":"A four-pronged approach to dealing with Social Science Phenomenon is outlined. This methodology is applied to Financial Services, Economic Growth and Well-Being. The four prongs are like the four directions for an army general looking for victory. Just like the four directions, we need to be aware that there is a degree of interconnectedness in the below four prongs. -Uncertainty Principle of the Social Sciences -Responsibilities of Fiscal Janitors -Need for Smaller Organizations -Redirecting Growth that Generates Garbage The importance of gaining a more profound comprehension of welfare and delineating its components into those that result from an increase in goods and services, and hence can be attributed to economic growth, and into those that are not related to economic growth but lead to a better quality of life, is highlighted. The reasoning being that economic growth alone is an inadequate indicator of well-being. Hand in hand with a better understanding of the characteristics of welfare, comes the need to consider the metrics we currently have that gauge economic growth and supplement those with measures that capture well-being more holistically.","PeriodicalId":18164,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84082581","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
By making use of a large-scale randomized experiment, we test whether social behaviour is important for work absence due to illness. The individuals treated in the experiment were exposed to less monitoring of their eligibility to collect sickness insurance benefits, which sharply increased their non-monitored work absence. This exogenous variation is exploited in two complementary analyses. In both analyses, we find significant social-behaviour effects. Using detailed data, we conclude that the social-behaviour effects most likely stem from fairness concerns.
{"title":"Social Behaviour in Work Absence","authors":"Patrik Hesselius, P. Johansson, J. Vikström","doi":"10.1111/sjoe.12030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12030","url":null,"abstract":"By making use of a large-scale randomized experiment, we test whether social behaviour is important for work absence due to illness. The individuals treated in the experiment were exposed to less monitoring of their eligibility to collect sickness insurance benefits, which sharply increased their non-monitored work absence. This exogenous variation is exploited in two complementary analyses. In both analyses, we find significant social-behaviour effects. Using detailed data, we conclude that the social-behaviour effects most likely stem from fairness concerns.","PeriodicalId":18164,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal","volume":"03 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86520289","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2013-09-01DOI: 10.1016/B978-0-444-53538-2.00006-X
N. Crafts, Kevin H. O'Rourke
{"title":"Twentieth Century Growth","authors":"N. Crafts, Kevin H. O'Rourke","doi":"10.1016/B978-0-444-53538-2.00006-X","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-444-53538-2.00006-X","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":18164,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86636978","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Keynes (1936) offers two different definitions of income. This paper proves that his expenditure definition of income is negative. When the double-entry method helps change the Keynesian negative amount into positive, it abets the crime!
{"title":"Double Entry or Double Standard? Double Crime: Keynes' Negative Definition of Income","authors":"Hak Choi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2319038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2319038","url":null,"abstract":"Keynes (1936) offers two different definitions of income. This paper proves that his expenditure definition of income is negative. When the double-entry method helps change the Keynesian negative amount into positive, it abets the crime!","PeriodicalId":18164,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal","volume":"83 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73640910","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper, we use a structural vector autoregressive model to study the effects of oil market developments on the German economy. We find that higher oil prices are always associated with a decline in private consumption expenditures, but the response of gross domestic product (GDP) crucially depends on the underlying shock. While a disruption in oil supply provokes a recession, positive world demand shocks prompt a temporary increase in exports and investment, which initially outweigh the cutback on consumption. In a counterfactual analysis, we show that the world demand shocks that led to the 2007/2008 oil price rise triggered a delayed 0.8 percent decrease in German GDP in 2009, and therefore notably contributed to the recession of that year.
{"title":"How Much Did Oil Market Developments Contribute to the 2009 Recession in Germany?","authors":"K. Carstensen, Steffen Elstner, Georg Paula","doi":"10.1111/sjoe.12021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12021","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we use a structural vector autoregressive model to study the effects of oil market developments on the German economy. We find that higher oil prices are always associated with a decline in private consumption expenditures, but the response of gross domestic product (GDP) crucially depends on the underlying shock. While a disruption in oil supply provokes a recession, positive world demand shocks prompt a temporary increase in exports and investment, which initially outweigh the cutback on consumption. In a counterfactual analysis, we show that the world demand shocks that led to the 2007/2008 oil price rise triggered a delayed 0.8 percent decrease in German GDP in 2009, and therefore notably contributed to the recession of that year.","PeriodicalId":18164,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal","volume":"62 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83475189","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The experimental ‘learning-to-forecast’ literature finds that subjects use simple linear backward-looking models when forecasting in environments with little to no inout the economic framework. We study the formation of expectations in a laboratory economy of monopolistic firms and labour unions with almost complete knowledge of the model. We observe simple backward-looking rules, but also a considerable share of model-based expectations using information on the economic structure. At least for some subjects, expectations are informed by theory. As in the previous literature, we find individual prediction rules to be heterogeneous.
{"title":"Information, Learning and Expectations in an Experimental Model Economy","authors":"Michael W. M. Roos, Wolfgang J. Luhan","doi":"10.1111/ecca.12003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12003","url":null,"abstract":"The experimental ‘learning-to-forecast’ literature finds that subjects use simple linear backward-looking models when forecasting in environments with little to no inout the economic framework. We study the formation of expectations in a laboratory economy of monopolistic firms and labour unions with almost complete knowledge of the model. We observe simple backward-looking rules, but also a considerable share of model-based expectations using information on the economic structure. At least for some subjects, expectations are informed by theory. As in the previous literature, we find individual prediction rules to be heterogeneous.","PeriodicalId":18164,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75420901","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In mid-April 2013, the Secretariat of the World Trade Organization (WTO) published an annual analytical review on the basis of the results of development of the international trade in 2012 and the prospects of its development in 2013. The above document includes as well the initial statistical data on the global trade in goods and services by the country in 2012.
{"title":"The 2012 Results of the International Trade in Goods and Services in and Prospects of its Development","authors":"O. Biryukova, A. Pakhomov","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2281096","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2281096","url":null,"abstract":"In mid-April 2013, the Secretariat of the World Trade Organization (WTO) published an annual analytical review on the basis of the results of development of the international trade in 2012 and the prospects of its development in 2013. The above document includes as well the initial statistical data on the global trade in goods and services by the country in 2012.","PeriodicalId":18164,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83360494","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Biodiversity, a property of natural areas, provides a range of benefits to the economy including bioprospecting rents, knowledge and insurance, ecotourism fees, and ecosystem services. Many of these values can be broken out in the System of National Accounts, leading to better estimates of the economic losses when natural areas are degraded or destroyed. Developing countries harbor the great majority of biodiversity, and this diversity provides benefits, including knowledge and carbon sequestration, to the whole world. However, protecting biodiversity is particularly costly for developing countries: the opportunity cost of foregoing development of natural areas exceeds 1 percent of gross domestic product in 58 developing countries, versus only four OECD countries. The Global Environment Facility can offset these costs through grant finance, but annual Global Environment Facility finance and co-finance averages only 8 percent of the opportunity costs faced by low-income countries.
{"title":"Biodiversity and National Accounting","authors":"K. Hamilton","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-6441","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-6441","url":null,"abstract":"Biodiversity, a property of natural areas, provides a range of benefits to the economy including bioprospecting rents, knowledge and insurance, ecotourism fees, and ecosystem services. Many of these values can be broken out in the System of National Accounts, leading to better estimates of the economic losses when natural areas are degraded or destroyed. Developing countries harbor the great majority of biodiversity, and this diversity provides benefits, including knowledge and carbon sequestration, to the whole world. However, protecting biodiversity is particularly costly for developing countries: the opportunity cost of foregoing development of natural areas exceeds 1 percent of gross domestic product in 58 developing countries, versus only four OECD countries. The Global Environment Facility can offset these costs through grant finance, but annual Global Environment Facility finance and co-finance averages only 8 percent of the opportunity costs faced by low-income countries.","PeriodicalId":18164,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal","volume":"276 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76985384","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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